The Olmsted fault zone, southernmost Illinois: A key to understanding seismic hazard in the northern new Madrid seismic zone

Geological deformation in the northern New Madrid seismic zone, near Olmsted, Illinois (USA), is analyzed using integrated compressional-wave (P) and horizontally polarized-wave (SH) seismic reflection and regional and dedicated borehole information. Seismic hazards are of special concern because of strategic facilities (e.g., lock and dam sites and chemical plants on the Ohio River near its confluence with the Mississippi River) and because of alluvial soils subject to high amplification of earthquake shock. We use an integrated approach starting with lower resolution, but deeper penetration, P-wave reflection profiles to identify displacement of Paleozoic bedrock. Higher resolution, but shallower penetration, SH-wave images show deformation that has propagated upward from bedrock faults into Pleistocene loess. We have mapped an intricate zone more than 8 km wide of high-angle faults in Mississippi embayment sediments localized over Paleozoic bedrock faults that trend north to northeast, parallel to the Ohio River. These faults align with the pattern of epicenters in the New Madrid seismic zone. Normal and reverse offsets along with positive flower structures imply a component of strike-slip; the current stress regime favors right-lateral slip on northeast-trending faults. The largest fault, the Olmsted fault, underwent principal displacement near the end of the Cretaceous Period 65 to 70 million years ago. Strata of this age (dated via fossil pollen) thicken greatly on the downthrown side of the Olmsted fault into a locally subsiding basin. Small offsets of Tertiary and Quaternary strata are evident on high-resolution SH-wave seismic profiles. Our results imply recent reactivation and possible future seismic activity in a critical area of the New Madrid seismic zone. This integrated approach provides a strategy for evaluating shallow seismic hazard-related targets for engineering concerns.     

Use of archaeology to date liquefaction features and seismic events in the New Madrid seismic zone,Central United States

Prehistoric earthquake-induced liquefaction features occur in association with Native American occupation horizons in the New Madrid seismic zone. Age control of these liquefaction features, including sand-blow deposits, sand-blow craters, and sand dikes, can be accomplished by extensive sampling and flotation processing of datable materials as well as archaeobotanical analysis of associated archaeological horizons and pits. This approach increases both the amount of carbon for radiocarbon dating and the precision dating of artifact assemblages. Using this approach, we dated liquefaction features at four sites northwest of Blytheville, Arkansas, and found that at least one significant earthquake occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone between A.D. 1180 and 1400, probably about A.D. 1300 ± 100 yr. In addition, we found three buried sand blows that formed between 3340 B.C. and A.D. 780. In this region where very large to great earthquakes appear to be closely timed, archaeology is helping to develop a paleoearthquake chronology for the New Madrid seismic zone. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 2): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by tsunami modeling and seismic intensity

The Great Lisbon earthquake has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5–15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g.— Gorringe Bank, Marquis de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment as well as all the historical tsunami amplitude and travel time observations. A shallow east dipping fault plane beneath the Gulf of Cadiz associated with active subduction beneath Gibraltar, represents a candidate source for the Lisbon earthquake of 1755.Here we consider the fault parameters implied by this hypothesis, with respect to total slip, seismic moment, and recurrence interval to test the viability of this source. The geometry of the seismogenic zone is obtained from deep crustal studies and can be represented by an east dipping fault plane with mean dimensions of 180 km (N–S) × 210 km (E–W). For 10 m of co-seismic slip an Mw 8.64 event results and for 20 m of slip an Mw 8.8 earthquake is generated. Thus, for convergence rates of about 1 cm/yr, an event of this magnitude could occur every 1000–2000 years. Available kinematic and sedimentological data are in general agreement with such a recurrence interval. Tsunami wave form modeling indicates a subduction source in the Gulf of Cadiz can partly satisfy the historical observations with respect to wave amplitudes and arrival times, though discrepancies remain for some stations. A macroseismic analysis is performed using site effect functions calculated from isoseismals observed during instrumentally recorded strong earthquakes in the region (M7.9 1969 and M6.8 1964). The resulting synthetic isoseismals for the 1755 event suggest a subduction source, possibly in combination with an additional source at the NW corner of the Gulf of Cadiz can satisfactorily explain the historically observed seismic intensities. Further studies are needed to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains to better document the source region and more precisely calibrate the chronology of great earthquakes in this region.     

Thessaloniki–Gerakarou Fault Zone (TGFZ): the western extension of the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake fault (Northern Greece) and seismic hazard assessment

Active faulting and seismic properties are re-investigated in the eastern precinct of the city of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece), which was seriously affected by two large earthquakes during the 20th century and severe damage was done by the 1759 event. It is suggested that the earthquake fault associated with the occurrence of the latest destructive 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake continues westwards to the 20-km-long Thessaloniki–Gerakarou Fault Zone (TGFZ), which extends from the Gerakarou village to the city of Thessaloniki. This fault zone exhibits a constant dip to the N and is characterised by a complicated geometry comprised of inherited 100°-trending faults that form multi-level branching (tree-like fault geometry) along with NNE- to NE-trending faults. The TGFZ is compatible with the contemporary regional N–S extensional stress field that tends to modify the pre-existing NW–SE tectonic fabric prevailing in the mountainous region of Thessaloniki. Both the 1978 earthquake fault and TGFZ belong to a ca. 65-km-long E–W-trending rupture fault system that runs through the southern part of the Mygdonia graben from the Strymonikos gulf to Thessaloniki. This fault system, here called Thessaloniki–Rentina Fault System (TRFS), consists of two 17–20-km-long left-stepping 100°-trending main fault strands that form underlapping steps bridged by 8–10-km-long ENE–WSW faults. The occurrence of large (M6.0) historical earthquakes (in 620, 677 and 700 A.D.) demonstrates repeated activation, and therefore the possible reactivation of the westernmost segment, the TGFZ, could be a major threat to the city of Thessaloniki. Changes in the Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) due to the occurrence of the 1978 earthquake calculated out in this paper indicate that the TGFZ has been brought closer to failure, a convincing argument for future seismic hazard along the TGFZ.     

Displacement history and slip rate on the Reelfoot fault of the New Madrid seismic zone

A displacement history and slip rates were determined for the Reelfoot fault in the New Madrid seismic zone from a seismic reflection profile and trench data. Based on calculations from the seismic reflection line the average slip rate over the last 80 million years is 0.0009 mm year⁻¹. Slip rate during the Late Cretaceous was 0.0007 mm year⁻¹, 0.002 mm year⁻¹ during the Paleocene Midway Group, 0.001 mm year⁻¹ during Paleocene–Eocene Wilcox Formation time, 0.0003 mm year⁻¹ during the post-Wilcox/pre-Holocene period, and a Holocene slip rate of 1.8 mm year⁻¹. Based on trench data, slip rate on the Reelfoot fault has been 4.4 mm year⁻¹ over the last 2400 years and a maximum of 6.2 mm year⁻¹ during the two most recent earthquake cycles between AD 900 and AD 1812. The Holocene slip rate is at least four orders of magnitude higher than the average Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic slip rates for the Reelfoot fault. It would appear that there has been a Quaternary change in the stress field in the central United States or the Reelfoot fault is experiencing a short-lived burst of seismic activity.     

Refining the image of the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California using a finite difference travel time computation technique

The Parkfield Area Seismic Observatory (PASO) was a dense, telemetered seismic array that operated for nearly 2 years in a 15 km aperture centered on the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) drill site. The main objective of this deployment was to refine the locations of earthquakes that will serve as potential targets for SAFOD drilling and in the process develop a high (for passive seismological techniques) resolution image of the fault zone structure. A challenging aspect of the analysis of this data set was the known existence of large (20–25%) contrasts in seismic wavespeed across the San Andreas Fault. The resultant distortion of raypaths could challenge the applicability of approximate ray tracing techniques. In order to test the sensitivity of our hypocenter locations and tomographic image to the particular ray tracing and inversion technique employed, we compare an initial determination of locations and structure developed using a coarse grid and an approximate ray tracer [Thurber, C., Roecker, S., Roberts, K., Gold, M., Powell, M.L. , and Rittger, K., 2003. Earthquake locations and three-dimensional fault zone structure along the creeping section of the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, CA: Preparing for SAFOD, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 3, 10.1029/2002GL016004.] with one derived from a relatively fine grid and an application of a finite difference algorithm [Hole, J.A., and Zelt, B.C., 1995. 3-D finite-difference reflection traveltimes, Geophys. J. Int., 121, 2, 427–434.]. In both cases, we inverted arrival-time data from about 686 local earthquakes and 23 shots simultaneously for earthquake locations and three-dimensional Vp and Vp/Vs structure. Included are data from an active source seismic experiment around the SAFOD site as well as from a vertical array of geophones installed in the 2-km-deep SAFOD pilot hole, drilled in summer 2002. Our results show that the main features of the original analysis are robust: hypocenters are located beneath the trace of the fault in the vicinity of the drill site and the positions of major contrasts in wavespeed are largely the same. At the same time, we determine that shear wave speeds in the upper 2 km of the fault zone are significantly lower than previously estimated, and our estimate of the depth of the main part of the seismogenic zone decreases in places by  100 m. Tests using “virtual earthquakes” (borehole receiver gathers of picks for surface shots) indicate that our event locations near the borehole currently are accurate to about a few tens of meters horizontally and vertically.     

Shallow seismic reflection profiles and geological structure in the Benton Hills, southeast Missouri

During late May and early June of 1993, we conducted two shallow, high-resolution seismic reflection surveys (Mini-Sosie method) across the southern escarpment of the Benton Hills segment of Crowleys Ridge. The reflection profiles imaged numerous post-late Cretaceous faults and folds. We believe these faults may represent a significant earthquake source zone.

The stratigraphy of the Benton Hills consists of a thin, less than about 130 m, sequence of mostly unconsolidated Cretaceous, Tertiary and Quaternary sediments which uncomfortably overlie a much thicker section of Paleozoic carbonate rocks. The survey did not resolve reflectors within the upper 75–100 ms of two-way travel time (about 60–100 m), which would include all of the Tertiary and Quaternary and most of the Cretaceous. However, the Paleozoic-Cretaceous unconformity (Pz) produced an excellent reflection, and locally a shallower reflector within the Cretaceous (K) was resolved. No coherent reflections below about 200 ms of two-way travel time were identified.

Numerous faults and folds, which clearly offset the Paleozoic-Cretaceous unconformity reflector, were imaged on both seismic reflection profiles. Many structures imaged by the reflection data are coincident with the surface mapped locations of faults within the Cretaceous and Tertiary succession. Two locations show important structures that are clearly complex fault zones. The English Hill fault zone, striking N30°–35°E, is present along Line 1 and is important because earlier workers indicated it has Pleistocene Loess faulted against Eocene sands. The Commerce fault zone striking N50°E, overlies a major regional basement geophysical lineament, and is present on both seismic lines at the southern margin of the escarpment.

The fault zones imaged by these surveys are 30 km from the area of intense microseismicity in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ). If these are northeast and north-northeast oriented fault zones like those at Thebes Gap they are favorably oriented in the modern stress field to be reactivated as right-lateral strike slip faults. Currently, earthquake hazards assessments are most dependent upon historical seismicity, and there are little geological data available to evaluate the earthquake potential of fault zones outside of the NMSZ. We anticipate that future studies will provide evidence that seismicity has migrated between fault zones well beyond the middle Mississippi Valley. The potential earthquake hazards represented by faults outside the NMSZ may be significant.     

Variable post-Paleozoic deformation detected by seismic reflection profiling across the northwestern “prong” of New Madrid seismic zone

High-resolution shallow seismic reflection profiles across the northwesternmost part of the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and northwestern margin of the Reelfoot rift, near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers in the northern Mississippi embayment, reveal intense structural deformation that apparently took place during the late Paleozoic and/or Mesozoic up to near the end of the Cretaceous Period. The seismic profiles were sited on both sides of the northeast-trending Olmsted fault, defined by varying elevations of the top of Mississippian (locally base of Cretaceous) bedrock. The trend of this fault is close to and parallel with an unusually straight segment of the Ohio River and is approximately on trend with the westernmost of two groups of northeast-aligned epicenters (“prongs”) in the NMSZ. Initially suspected on the basis of pre-existing borehole data, the deformation along the fault has been confirmed by four seismic reflection profiles, combined with some new information from drilling. The new data reveal (1) many high-angle normal and reverse faults expressed as narrow grabens and anticlines (suggesting both extensional and compressional regimes) that involved the largest displacements during the late Cretaceous (McNairy); (2) a different style of deformation involving probably more horizontal displacements (i.e., thrusting) that occurred at the end of this phase near the end of McNairy deposition, with some fault offsets of Paleocene and younger units; (3) zones of steeply dipping faults that bound chaotic blocks similar to that observed previously from the nearby Commerce geophysical lineament (CGL); and (4) complex internal deformation stratigraphically restricted to the McNairy, suggestive of major sediment liquefaction or landsliding. Our results thus confirm the prevalence of complex Cretaceous deformations continuing up into Tertiary strata near the northern terminus of the NMSZ.     

Stratigraphic evidence for millennial-scale temporal clustering of earthquakes on a continental-interior fault: Holocene Mississippi River floodplain deposits, New Madrid seismic zone, USA

The earthquake cycles that characterize continental-interior areas that are far from active plate boundaries have proven highly cryptic and difficult to resolve. We used a novel paleoseismic proxy to address this issue. Namely, we reconstructed Holocene Mississippi River channels from maps of floodplain strata in order to identify channel perturbations reflective of major displacement events on the high-hazard and mid-plate Reelfoot thrust fault, New Madrid seismic zone, U.S.A. Only three discrete slip events are currently documented for the Reelfoot fault ( AD 900,  AD 1450, and AD 1812). This study extends this record and, thus, illustrates the utility of stratigraphic proxies as paleoseismic tools. We concurrently offer here some of the first quantified response times for tectonically induced channel pattern changes in large alluvial rivers.

We identified at least two cycles of pervasive meandering that were interrupted by channel-straightening responses occurring upstream of the Reelfoot fault scarp. These straightening responses initiated at 2244 BC +/− 269 to 1620 BC +/− 220 and  AD 900, respectively, and each records initiation of a period of Reelfoot fault slip after millennia of relative tectonic quiescence. The second (or New Madrid) straightening response was triggered by the previously known  AD 900 fault slip event, and this initial low sinuosity has been protracted until the modern day by the latter  AD 1450 and AD 1812 events. The first (or Bondurant) straightening response began a period of several hundred to  1400 years of low river sinuosity which evidences a similar period of multiple recurrent displacement events on the Reelfoot fault. These Bondurant events predate the existing paleoseismic record for the Reelfoot fault.

These data offer initial evidence that slip events on the Reelfoot fault were temporally clustered on millennial scales and, thus, offers the first direct evidence for millennial-scale clustering of earthquakes on a continental-interior fault. This carries additional ramifications. Namely, faults that have been quiescent and non-hazardous for millennia could re-enter an enduring period of recurrent hazardous earthquakes with little warning. Likewise, the Reelfoot fault also reveals evidence of temporal clustering of earthquakes on short-term cycles (months), as well as evidence for longer-term reactivation cycles (10⁴–10⁶ years). This introduces the possibility that temporal clustering could be hierarchical on some continental-interior faults.     

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 1): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by seismic data, gravity and thermal modeling

The Great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 with an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0 is the most destructive earthquake in European history, yet the source region remains enigmatic. Recent geophysical data provide compelling evidence for an active east dipping subduction zone beneath the nearby Gibraltar Arc. Marine seismic data in the Gulf of Cadiz image active thrust faults in an accretionary wedge, above an east dipping decollement and an eastward dipping basement. Tomographic and other data support subduction and rollback of a narrow slab of oceanic lithosphere beneath the westward advancing Gibraltar block.Although, no instrumentally recorded seismicity has been documented for the subduction interface, we propose the hypothesis that this shallow east dipping fault plane is locked and capable of generating great earthquakes (like the Nankai or Cascadia seismogenic zones). We further propose this east dipping fault plane to be a candidate source for the Great Lisbon earthquake of 1755. In this paper we use all available geophysical data on the deep structure of the Gulf of Cadiz–Gibraltar region for the purpose of constraining the 3-D geometry of this potentially seismogenic fault plane. To this end, we use new depth processed seismic data, have interpreted all available published and unpublished time sections, examine the distribution of hypocenters and perform 2-D gravity modeling. Finally, a finite-element model of the forearc thermal structure is constructed to determine the temperature distribution along the fault interface and thus the thermally predicted updip and downdip limits of the seismogenic zone.     

Improved earthquake locations in the Koyna-Warna seismic zone

In estimating the likelihood of an earthquake hazard for a seismically active region, information on the geometry of the potential source is important in quantifying the seismic hazard. The damage from an earthquake varies spatially and is governed by the fault geometry and lithology. As earthquake damage is amplified by guided seismic waves along fault zones, it is important to delineate the disposition of the fault zones by precisely determined hypocentral parameters. We used the double difference (DD) algorithm to relocate earthquakes in the Koyna-Warna seismic zone (KWSZ) region, with the P- and S-wave catalog data from relative arrival time pairs constituting the input. A significant improvement in the hypocentral estimates was achieved, with the epicentral errors <30 m and focal depth errors <75 m i.e. errors have been significantly reduced by an order of magnitude from the parameters determined by HYPO71. The earthquake activity defines three different fault segments. The seismogenic volume is shallower in the south by 3 km, with seismicity in the north extending to a depth of 11 km while in the south the deepest seismicity observed is at a depth of 8 km. By resolving the structure of seismicity in greater detail, we address the salient issues related to the seismotectonics of this region.     

Borehole water and hydrologic model around the Nojima fault, SW Japan

The active fault drilling at Nojima Hirabayashi after the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu (Kobe) earthquake (M_JMA = 7.2) provides us with a unique opportunity to investigate subsurface fault structure and the in-situ properties of fault and fluid. The borehole intersected the fault gouge of the Nojima fault at a depth interval of 623 m to 625 m. The lithology is mostly Cretaceous granodiorite with some porphyry dikes.The fault core is highly permeable due to fracturing. The borehole water was sampled in 1996 and 2000 from the depth interval between 630 and 650 m, just below the fault core. The chemical and isotopic compositions were analyzed. Carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of carbonates from the fault core were analyzed to estimate the origin of fluid.The following conclusions were obtained. (1) The ionic and isotopic compositions of borehole water did not change from 1996 to 2000. They are mostly derived from local ground water as mentioned by Sato and Takahashi [Sato, T., Takahashi, M., 2000. Chemical and isotopic compositions of groundwater obtained from the Hirabayashi well. Geological Survey of Japan Interim Report No. EQ/00/1, 187–192.]. (2) Geochemical speciation revealed that the borehole water was derived from a relatively deep reservoir, which may be situated at a depth of 3 to 4 km where the temperature is about 80–90 °C. (3) The shallower part of the Nojima fault (shallower than the reservoir depth) has not been healed from the hydrological viewpoints 5 years after the event, in contrast to the rapid healing detected by S wave splitting [Tadokoro, K., Ando, M., 2002. Evidence for rapid fault healing derived from temporal changes in S wave splitting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 10.1029/2001GL013644.]. (4) Precipitation of calcite from the present borehole water since drilling supports the idea of precipitation of some calcite in coseismic hydraulic fractures in the fault core [Boullier, A-M., Fujimoto, K., Ohtani, T., Roman-Ross, G., Lewin, E., Ito, H., Pezard, P., Ildefonse, B., 2004. Textural evidence for recent co-seismic circulation of fluids in the Nojima fault zone, Awaji Island, Japan., Tectonophysics, 378, 165–181.]. (5) Carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of calcite indicated that the meteoric water flux had been localized at the fault core. (6) A difference in the carbon isotope ratio between the footwall and the hanging wall suggests that the fault has been acted as a hydrologic barrier, although the permeability along the fault is still high.     

Geometry of the fault zone of the 2003 Ms = 7.5 Chuya earthquake and associated stress fields, Gorny Altai

The co-seismic deformations produced during the September 27, 2003 Chuya earthquake (Ms = 7.5) that affected the Gorny Altai, Russia, are described and discussed along a 30 km long segment. The co-seismic deformations have manifested themselves both in unconsolidated sediments as R- and R′-shears, extension fractures and contraction structures, and in bedrock as the reactivation of preexisting schistosity zones and individual fractures, as well as development of new ruptures and coarse crushing zones. It has been established that the pattern of earthquake ruptures represents a typical fault zone trending NW–SE with a width reaching 4–5 km and a dextral strike–slip kinematics. The initial stress field that produced the whole structural pattern of co-seismic deformations during the Chuya earthquake, is associated with a transcurrent regime with a NNW–SSE, almost N–S, trending of compressional stress axis (σ₁), and a ENE–WSW, almost E–W, trending of tensional stress axis (σ₃). The state of stress in the newly-formed fault zone is relatively uniform. The local stress variations are expressed in insignificant deviation of σ₁ from N–S to NW–SE or NE–SW, in short-term fluctuations of relative stress values in keeping their spatial orientations, or in a local increase of the plunge angle of the σ₁. The geometry of the fault zone associated with the Chuya earthquake has been compared with the mechanical model of fracturing in large continental fault zones with dextral strike–slip kinematics. It is apparent that the observed fracture pattern corresponds to the late disjunctive stage of faulting when the master fault is not fully developed but its segments are already clearly defined. It has been shown that fracturing in widely different rocks follows the common laws of the deformation of solid bodies, even close to the Earth surface, and with high rates of movements.     

Crosshole seismic tomography and borehole logging for engineering site characterization in Sikeston, MO, USA

This paper presents a geophysical investigation performed in the median separating the east and west bound lanes of U.S. Highway 60, approximately 15 km west from the town of Sikeston, MO, USA. Two boreholes, drilled at depth of 45 m, approximately located 6 m from the Wahite Ditch Bridge in U.S. Highway 60, were used to carry out the geophysical tests. The objective of the survey was to obtain the density distribution of soil materials and high-resolution compressional and shear wave velocities of the shallow subsurface for computation of elastic engineering properties of the unconsolidated material interposed between the two investigated boreholes.The studied site is located in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), one of the major seismic source zones in the eastern United States. Although no major seismic events have occurred in the New Madrid area since the catastrophic earthquakes of 1811–1812, more intensive studies in this area are required to better understand the local soil effects and the liquefaction potential of unconsolidated earth materials on strong ground motion.Joint interpretation of borehole logs and velocity images obtained by P- and S-wave traveltime inversions outlined shallow anomalies, which were interpreted as caused by variation in relative porosity and compactness of saturated unconsolidated soil materials. In the interval between 17 and 19 m of depth, a velocity anomaly with distinct characteristics is recognized. Analysis of traveltimes of P-wave energy propagated from common source-receiver depth positions at that depth interval delineated a low velocity zone (lower than estimated P-wave velocity in water) in which propagated S-wave energy was negligible. Analysis of porosity logs did not outline any porosity anomaly for that region. The anomaly is interpreted as caused by the presence of a gas-bearing zone extending for 1.5 m (+0.76 m from the top and the bottom of the depth interval), through which propagation of shear energy was almost prevented and compressional energy traveled a very low speed. Relative lower values of shear modulus were computed for the gas-bearing zone; the same depth interval also exhibited relative lower values of bulk modulus, relative higher values of compressibility and relative high porosity. However, the low velocity anomaly is not caused by relative increased porosity but rather to replacement of water by gas in the pore volumes of this zone.The presence of a shallow thin gas-bearing zone is interpreted as hazardous in the occurrence of strong motion in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Shallow water table, as detected by seismic and log measurements in the area, increases the risk of liquefaction of the sampled soil under strong ground motions.     

The presence, characteristics and earthquake implications of the St. Lawrence fault zone within and near Lake Ontario (Canada–USA)

Questions persist concerning the earthquake potential of the populous and industrial Lake Ontario (Canada–USA) area. Pertinent to those questions is whether the major fault zone that extends along the St. Lawrence River valley, herein named the St. Lawrence fault zone, continues upstream along the St. Lawrence River valley at least as far as Lake Ontario or terminates near Cornwall (Ontario, Canada)–Massena (NY, USA). New geological studies uncovered paleotectonic bedrock faults that are parallel to, and lie within, the projection of that northeast-oriented fault zone between Cornwall and northeastern Lake Ontario, suggesting that the fault zone continues into Lake Ontario. The aforementioned bedrock faults range from meters to tens of kilometers in length and display kinematically incompatible displacements, implying that the fault zone was periodically reactivated in the study area. Beneath Lake Ontario the Hamilton–Presqu'ile fault lines up with the St. Lawrence fault zone and projects to the southwest where it coincides with the Dundas Valley (Ontario, Canada). The Dundas Valley extends landward from beneath the western end of the lake and is marked by a vertical stratigraphic displacement across its width. The alignment of the Hamilton–Presqu'ile fault with the St. Lawrence fault zone strongly suggests that the latter crosses the entire length of Lake Ontario and continues along the Dundas Valley.The Rochester Basin, an east–northeast-trending linear trough in the southeastern corner of Lake Ontario, lies along the southern part of the St. Lawrence fault zone. Submarine dives in May 1997 revealed inclined layers of glaciolacustrine clay along two different scarps within the basin. The inclined layers strike parallel to the long dimension of the basin, and dip about 20° to the north–northwest suggesting that they are the result of rigid-body rotation consequent upon post-glacial faulting. Those post-glacial faults are growth faults as demonstrated by the consistently greater thickness, unit-by-unit, of unconsolidated sediments on the downthrown (northwest) side of the faults relative to their counterparts on the upthrown (southeast) side. Underneath the western part of Lake Ontario is a monoclinal warp that displaces the glacial and post-glacial sediments, and the underlying bedrock–sediment interface. Because of the post-glacial growth faults and the monoclinal warp the St. Lawrence fault zone is inferred to be tectonically active beneath Lake Ontario. Furthermore, within the lake it crosses at least five major faults and fault zones and coexists with other neotectonic structures. Those attributes, combined with the large earthquakes associated with the St. Lawrence fault zone well to the northeast of Lake Ontario, suggest that the seismic risk in the area surrounding and including Lake Ontario is likely much greater than previously believed.     

Modeling of seismic hazard for Turkey using the recent neotectonic data

Recent developments in the neotectonic framework of Turkey introduced new tectonic elements necessitating the reconstruction of Turkey's seismic hazard map. In this regard, 14 seismic source zones were delineated. Maximum earthquake magnitudes for each seismic zones were determined using the fault rupture length approximation. Regression coefficients of the earthquake magnitude–frequency relationships for the seismic zones were compiled mostly from earlier works. Along with these data, a strong ground motion attenuation relationship developed by Joyner and Boore [Joyner, W.B., Boore, D.M., 1988. Measurement, characterization, and prediction of strong ground motion. Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics, 2. Recent Advances Ground Motion Evaluation, pp. 43–102.] was utilized to model the seismic hazard for Turkey using the probabilistic approach. For the modeling, the “earthquake location uncertainty” concept was employed. A grid of 5106 points with 0.2° intervals was constituted for the area encompassed by the 25–46°E longitudes and 35–43°N latitudes. For the return periods of 100 and 475 years, the peak horizontal ground acceleration (pga) in bedrock was computed for each grid point. Isoacceleration maps for the return periods of 100 and 475 years were constructed by contouring the pga values at each node.     

Multi-scale imaging of a slow active fault zone: contribution for improved seismic hazard assessment in the Swiss Alpine foreland

Seismic hazard assessment of slow active fault zones is challenging as usually only a few decades of sparse instrumental seismic monitoring is available to characterize seismic activity. Tectonic features linked to the observed seismicity can be mapped by seismic imaging techniques and/or geomorphological and structural evidences. In this study, we investigate a seismic lineament located in the Swiss Alpine foreland, which was discussed in previous work as being related to crustal structures carrying in size the potential of a magnitude M 6 earthquake. New, low-magnitude (?2.0 ≤ M_L ≤ 2.5) earthquake data are used to image the spatial and temporal distribution of seismogenic features in the target area. Quantitative and qualitative analyses are applied to the waveform dataset to better constrain earthquakes distribution and source processes. Potential tectonic features responsible for the observed seismicity are modelled based on new reinterpretations of oil industry seismic profiles and recent field data in the study area. The earthquake and tectonic datasets are then integrated in a 3D model. Spatially, the seismicity correlates over 10–15 km with a N–S oriented sub-vertical fault zone imaged in seismic profiles in the Mesozoic cover units above a major decollement on top of the mechanically more rigid basement and seen in outcrops of Tertiary series east of the city of Fribourg. Observed earthquakes cluster at shallow depth (<4 km) in the sedimentary cover. Given the spatial extend of the observed seismicity, we infer the potential of a moderate size earthquake to be generated on the lineament. However, since the existence of along strike structures in the basement cannot be excluded, a maximum M 6 earthquake cannot be ruled out. Thus, the Fribourg Lineament constitutes a non-negligible source of seismic hazard in the Swiss Alpine foreland.     

青藏高原巴塘断裂带地震滑坡危险性预测研究

全新世以来青藏高原东部巴塘断裂带活动强烈,地形地貌和地质构造复杂,历史地震频发,并诱发大量滑坡灾害。基于巴塘断裂带地震滑坡长期防控的需要,在分析区域地质灾害成灾背景和发育分布特征的基础上,采用Newmark模型完成了巴塘断裂带50年超越概率10%的潜在地震滑坡危险性预测评价,并完成地震滑坡危险性区划。结果表明:巴塘断裂带及其临近的金沙江断裂带区域、金沙江及其支流沿岸具有较高的潜在地震滑坡危险性,地震滑坡危险区具有沿断裂带和大江大河等峡谷区分布的总体趋势,受活动断裂和地形地貌影响显著;距离断层越近、坡度越大的斜坡,地震滑坡危险性越高;规划建设中的川藏铁路经巴塘县德达乡、白玉县沙马乡,向西北延伸,跨越金沙江,可以穿越较少的地震滑坡危险区,金沙江水电工程规划建设需加强潜在地震滑坡危害研判及防控。巴塘断裂带潜在地震滑坡危险性评价结果可为区域城镇开发和重大工程规划建设的地震滑坡长期防控提供科学参考。     

3-D upper crustal tomographic structure across the Vrancea seismic zone, Romania

The VRANCEA99 and VRANCEA2001 seismic refraction experiments are part of a multidisciplinary project to study the Eastern Carpathians in Romania. The objectives of these studies are intended to disclose a more detailed picture of the crustal and upper mantle structures above the seismically active Vrancea region. In this paper we provide additional constraints for the upper crustal structures of the area. The 1999 campaign consisted of a 320-km-long N–S profile and a 70-km-long E–W profile. The intersecting 2001 profile extended in E–W direction from the Hungarian border to the Black Sea. In order to enhance the model resolution, first arrival data from local crustal earthquakes were also included.This configuration allowed for the first time to derive a 3-D velocity model for the upper crust of the Romanian Carpathian Orogen, within a 115×235 km wide region, centred over the Vrancea seismic zone. The 3-D model reveals lateral velocity variations, which were not visible on the in-line interpretations. It allows us to distinguish between foreland platform areas, foreland basins and the Carpathian Orogen. Clear velocity differences between the foreland basins south and southeast of the Eastern Carpathians and the Focsani Basin further north indicate different pre-Miocene sedimentary compositions and geological evolutions of these foreland platforms. The involved Moesian and Scythian platforms are separated by the Trotus Fault system, which is observed as a velocity discontinuity. An upper crustal high-velocity zone, above the northern Vrancea seismic zone, could also be identified. This high-velocity zone is explained by a Middle Pliocene to Pleistocene E–W oriented out-of-sequence thrust of the crystalline basement, below the decollement of the flysch nappes.     

Integration of P- and SH-wave high-resolution seismic reflection and micro-gravity techniques to improve interpretation of shallow subsurface structure: New Madrid seismic zone

Shallow high-resolution seismic reflection surveys have traditionally been restricted to either compressional (P) or horizontally polarized shear (SH) waves in order to produce 2-D images of subsurface structure. The northernmost Mississippi embayment and coincident New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) provide an ideal laboratory to study the experimental use of integrating P- and SH-wave seismic profiles, integrated, where practicable, with micro-gravity data. In this area, the relation between “deeper” deformation of Paleozoic bedrock associated with the formation of the Reelfoot rift and NMSZ seismicity and “shallower” deformation of overlying sediments has remained elusive, but could be revealed using integrated P- and SH-wave reflection. Surface expressions of deformation are almost non-existent in this region, which makes seismic reflection surveying the only means of detecting structures that are possibly pertinent to seismic hazard assessment. Since P- and SH-waves respond differently to the rock and fluid properties and travel at dissimilar speeds, the resulting seismic profiles provide complementary views of the subsurface based on different levels of resolution and imaging capability. P-wave profiles acquired in southwestern Illinois and western Kentucky (USA) detect faulting of deep, Paleozoic bedrock and Cretaceous reflectors while coincident SH-wave surveys show that this deformation propagates higher into overlying Tertiary and Quaternary strata. Forward modeling of micro-gravity data acquired along one of the seismic profiles further supports an interpretation of faulting of bedrock and Cretaceous strata. The integration of the two seismic and the micro-gravity methods therefore increases the scope for investigating the relation between the older and younger deformation in an area of critical seismic hazard.