Effect of an earthquake occurrence on the flow intensity of the subsequent events

Aftershocks or swarms indicate increase of the flow intensity in the vicinity of the initial earthquakes. By normalizing their number according to the dynamic range of the standard frequency magnitude distribution the increase or positive aftereffect property of the initial earthquakes can be compared for different magnitude intervals, periods of time or regions. After applying accurate formal algorithm of aftershock identification it is possible to study negative aftereffect of the main events (nonaftershocks) in the catalog.Negative aftereffect means decrease of the probability of successive events in a time-space vicinity of the main event, when the aftershocks are over. The negative effect is the most important part of the seismic cycle and seismic gaps approach. Global statistical test give high confidence level for the relative decrease in intensity of the flow of the events withM7 in the first 20–25 years after the events withM8 in their 1^o-vicinities in the total time period under study of approximately 60 years. The decrease approximates 32% of the undisturbed intensity of the flow ofM>7 events in the vicinities.Self-similar negative aftereffect was observed 3–7 years after 6M<7 events, it totals approximately 18% of the undisturbed intensity. Another type of self-similarity of seismic regime, with respect to the negative aftereffect, is the decrease of probabilities of aftershocks with large magnitudes in aftershock sequences. When we have adequate dynamic range in the catalog for the study of this property, for example, for main events withM7 in the catalog with low cut-off limitM=4, the statistical significance of the negative aftereffect is clear. However, the absolute value of the effect is also rather small, about 10%, which means that in 90% of the cases the aftershock sequences do not experience lack of energy due to the main shock energy release and follow a standard magnitude distribution for earthquakes in the entire catalog.The small values of the negative aftereffect apparently indicate partial stress relase by earthquakes and may explain short recurrence time intervals after major earthquakes observed periodically in different places.     

Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.     

Self-organized Fractal Seismicity and b Value of Aftershocks of the 2001 Bhuj Earthquake in Kutch (India)

— The devastating intraplate earthquake of M_w 7.7 of 26 January, 2001 took place along the south-dipping reverse fault in the lower crust ( 23 km) of Kutch, Gujarat, India, obliterating some 14,000 people. The aftershock activity has ensued for three years. We analyzed 997 aftershocks of M 3.0 to study the b value and fractal correlation dimensions in time and space. The b value is found to be 0.8 ± 0.03 from the Gutenberg-Richter relation and 0.76 ± 0.02 from the maximum-likelihood, suggesting a typical value for the intraplate region. The spatial correlation is 1.71 ± 0.02, indicating that events are approaching a two-dimensional region. Further, the temporal correlation dimension is estimated to be 0.78 ± 0.02, confirming the structure is mono-fractal in time domain. The depth section of b value shows a peak at 15–35 km depth range coinciding with the maximum occurrence of aftershocks ( 47%), which is inferred as a fluid-filled highly fractured rock matrix with fractures of high density. It will be important to note that tomographic results also suggest a low Vp, low Vs and a large Poissons ratio for the same depth range, further confirming this inference. Additionally, we have studied the variation of D₂^s and b value with time. During the first two months of aftershock activity the results show a marked negative correlation between spatial correlation dimension D₂ (large) and b value (low), indicating the predominance of large events associated with weak clustering. The negative correlation means the stress release along faults of a larger surface area. After two months the fractal dimension (D₂^s) and b value suggests a positive correlation implying more numerous smaller shocks with stress release along faults of a smaller surface area. This would indicate a reduced probability of large magnitude earthquakes due to fragmentation of the fault zone.Acknowledgement. The authors thank Dr. V.P. Dimri, Director, NGRI for his encouragement and kind permission to publish this work. The Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi supported this study.     

Seismic velocity-ratio in the crust and uppermost mantle in southeast Wellington province,New Zealand

The regional variation of the seismic velocity-ratio () over a 200 km long traverse has been studied by means of microearthquake surveys. The Wadati-plot method is used with a minimum of four P and S arrivals for each of 49 earthquakes. The area as a whole is found to be characterized by a value of 1.74–1.76 for earthquakes of depth 12–40 km, except in a 50 km long section near Wellington, where is low at 1.60. This low has been attributed to the fault zones in the region. A small change of is observed between the upper crust (5 km) and lower crust (12 km), but there is no change of between the lower crust and uppermost mantle.     

Seismicity and seismic hazard mapping of northern Algeria: Map of Maximum Calculated Intensities (MCI)

An earthquake catalogue covering the period1716–2000, comprising 2430 events, has beencompiled for the region lying between3°W-9°E and 31°N-38°N. It results fromraw data of IGN, ISC, USGS and Algeriansources, enabling an input consisting oforigin time H, geographical coordinates(longitude and latitude) and at least one of thefollowing parameters: surface wavemagnitude Ms, body wave magnitude Mb,epicentral intensities Io. Empiricalrelations permit transformations of Mb andMs into Io. The output consists in H,, , Ms, Mb, Io, and focal depth h whichis fixed to 10 km. The number ofevents falls to 1458 characterised by Ms 3.3 and Mb 3.6, or Io III. The fixed depth is suggested by thebest documented Algerian macroseismic mapsthat also lead to an empirical intensityattenuation law. A first application ofthis catalogue allows the drawing up of anupdated Seismicity and a MaximalCalculated Intensities (MCI) Maps ofAlgeria. The MCI map is obtained by usingthe empirical attenuation law: theintensities inferred by the whole eventsconstituting the catalogue are computed atnodes of a 5×5-km grid covering the area ofstudy. The corresponding maximum value isassigned to each node. The MCI map producedthat way gives precise spatial informationin comparison with Maximum ObservedIntensities (MOI) maps obtained in previousmacroseismic studies. This document may beuseful in mapping the seismic hazard inNorthern Algeria, without attachingprobabilities to ground-motionparameters.     

Dynamics of fault growth — A physical basis for aftershock sequences

The scale invariant inclusion theory of failure is applied to the problem of aftershock sequences. In the inclusion theory, a macrocrack, or void of low aspect ratio, the length of which depends upon the magnitude of the impending mainshock, forms within the inclusion zone of the impending earthquake. The fault zone that precedes the inclusion zone represents that part of the macrocrack that has closed. It is shown that bifurcation (branching) of the macrocrack and its associated fault must occur within the focal region of the inclusion during the growth phase of the earthquake. The bifurcation process produces extensive faulting of the material that comprises the focal region.A prediction of the inclusion theory is that each fault within the focal region will terminate within a zone of concentrated dilatancy that may or may not be in an unstable state. When the zone is unstable, an aftershock will occur. It is shown that these inclusion zones will, on the average, occur near the boundaries of the focal region. Failure of these unstable zones leads to additional failures within the interior portions of the focal region. These failures represent lock point failures along the fault(s) and will, in general, exhibit few or no additional aftershocks.The bifurcation model of aftershock sequences leads to five results: (1) The aftershock sequence will exhibit an inverse hyperbolic time decay law when the stresses that are applied at distances far removed from the hypocenter remain constant during the sequence and when there isno interaction between the brittle lithosphere (where aftershocks occur) and the underlying asthenosphere. (2) The mean magnitude of any group of aftershocks within the sequence will be approximately constant in time. (3) The aftershocks will, in general, have focal mechanisms identical to that of the mainshock. (4) Large seismic events that occur throughout the aftershock zone will be independent of one another when the aftershocks are sufficiently far apart (two-three fault lengths) and when the applied tectonic stresses remain constant during the sequence. (5) The bifurcation model predicts that theb-value of the aftershock sequence will be 1.0 when both the Utsu relationship between aftershock area and mainshock magnitude and the Gutenburg Richter frequency-magnitude relationship are satisfied.     

Enhanced reservoir-induced earthquakes in Koyna region, India, during 1993–95

Reservoir induced earthquakes began to occur in the vicinity of Shivajisagar Lake formed by Koyna Dam in Maharashtra state, western India, soon after its filling started in 1962. Induced earthquakes have continued to occur for the past 34 years in the vicinity of this reservoir, and so far a total of 10 earthquakes of M 5.0, over 100 of M 4 and about 100,000 of M 0.0 have occurred. Every year, following the rainy season, the water level in the reservoir rises and induced earthquakes occur. Seismic activity during 1967–68 was most intense when globally, the largest reservoir induced earthquake occurred on 10 December, 1967. Other years of intense seismic activity are 1973 and 1980. During 1986 another reservoir, Warna, some 20 km south of Koyna, began to be filled. The recent burst of seismic activity in Koyna-Warna region began in August, 1993, and was monitored with a close network of digital and analog seismographs. During August, 1993–December, 1995, 1,272 shocks of magnitude 2 were located, including two earthquakes of M 5.0 and M 5.4 on 8 December, 1993 and 1 February, 1994, respectively. Two parallel epicentral trends in NNE-SSW direction, one passing through Koyna and the other through Warna reservoir are delineated. The 1993 increase in seismicity has followed a loading of 44.15 m in Warna reservoir during 11 June 11, 1993 through August 4, 1993, with a maximum rate of filling being 16 m/week. The larger shocks have been found to be preceded by a precursory nucleation process.     

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.     

Power-law Distributions of Offspring and Generation Numbers in Branching Models of Earthquake Triggering

We consider a general stochastic branching process,which is relevant to earthquakes as well as to many other systems, and we study the distributions of the total number of offsprings (direct and indirect aftershocks in seismicity) and of the total number of generations before extinction. We apply our results to a branching model of triggered seismicity, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model. The ETAS model assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (aftershocks). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any earthquake (fertility), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime in which the distribution of fertilities is characterized by a power law ~1/¹⁺. For earthquakes we expect such a power-distribution of fertilities with =b/ based on the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution ~ 10^–bm and on the increase ~ 10^–m of the number of aftershocks with the mainshock magnitude m. We derive the asymptotic distributions p_r(r) and p_g(g) of the total number r of offsprings and of the total number g of generations until extinction following a mainshock. In the regime < 2 for which the distribution of fertilities has an infinite variance, we find This should be compared with the distributions obtained for standard branching processes with finite variance. These predictions are checked by numerical simulations. Our results apply directly to the ETAS model whose preferred values =0.8–1 and b=1 puts it in the regime where the distribution of fertilities has an infinite variance. More generally, our results apply to any stochastic branching process with a power-law distribution of offsprings per mother     

Geographical and vertical variation of the earth's seismicity

Information concerning a total number of 13700 instrumentally recorded earthquakes is used to study the geographical and the vertical distribution of the Earth's seismicity. From these earthquakes, which form four complete samples of data (M 7.0, 1894–1992; M 6.5, 1930–1992; M 6.0, 1953–1992; M 5.5, 1966–1992), 11511 are shallow (h 60 km), 2085 are of intermediate focal depth (61 h 300 km) and 564 are deep focus earthquakes (301 h 720 km). The parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relationship were calculated in a grid of equally spaced points at 1° by using the data of earthquakes located inside circles centered at each point. The radius of the circles increased from 30 km with a step of 10 km until the information for the earthquakes located inside the circle fulfil three criteria which concern the size of the sample used to compute these parameters at each point of the grid. The results are given in a qualitative way (epicenter maps) as well as in a quantitative way (mean return periods).     

Earthquake Triggering along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone of Western Sichuan,China

Western Sichuan is among the most seismically active regions in southwestern China and is characterized by frequent strong (M 6.5) earthquakes, mainly along the Xianshuihe fault zone. Historical and instrumental seismicity show a temporal pattern of active periods separated by inactive ones, while in space a remarkable epicenter migration has been observed. During the last active period starting in 1893, the sinistral strike–slip Xianshuihe fault of 350 km total length, was entirely broken with the epicenters of successive strong earthquakes migrating along its strike. This pattern is investigated by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (CFF) since 1893 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 110 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic halfspace, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We evaluate whether these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. It was found that all strong earthquakes, and moreover, the majority of smaller events for which reliable fault plane solutions are available, have occurred on stress–enhanced fault segments providing a convincing case in which Coulomb stress modeling gives insight into the temporal and spatial manifestation of seismic activity. We extend the stress calculations to the year 2025 and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying the fault segments that are possible sites of future strong earthquakes.     

Surface fault traces,fault plane solution and spatial distribution of the aftershocks of the September 13, 1986 earthquake of Kalamata (Southern Greece)

A shallow earthquake ofM _S=6.2 occurred in the southern part of the Peloponnesus, 12 km north of the port of the city of Kalamata, which caused considerable damage. The fault plane solution of the main shock, geological data and field observations, as well as the distribution of foci of aftershocks, indicate that the seismic fault is a listric normal one trending NNE-SSW and dipping to WNW. The surface ruptures caused by the earthquake coincide with the trace of a neotectonic fault, which is located 2–3 km east of the city of Kalamata and which is related to the formation of Messiniakos gulf during the Pliocene-Quaternary tectonics. Field observations indicate that the earthquake is due to the reactivation of the same fault.A three-days aftershock study in the area, with portable seismographs, recorded many aftershocks of which 39 withM _S1.7 were very well located. The distribution of aftershocks forms two clusters, one near the epicenter of the main shock in the northern part of the seismogenic volume, and the other near the epicenter of the largest aftershock (M _S=5.4) in the southern part of this volume. The central part of the area lacks aftershocks, which probably indicates that this is the part of the fault which slipped smoothly during the earthquake.     

A catalog of aftershock sequences in Greece (1971–1997): Their spatial and temporal characteristics

A complete catalog of aftershock sequences is provided for main earthquakes with M_L 5.0, which occurred in the area of Greece and surrounding regions the last twenty-seven years. The Monthly Bulletins of the Institute of Geodynamics (National Observatory of Athens) have been used as data source. In order to get a homogeneous catalog, several selection criteria have been applied and hence a catalog of 44 aftershock sequences is compiled. The relations between the duration of the sequence, the number of aftershocks, the magnitude of the largest aftershock and its delay time from the main shock as well as the subsurface rupture length versus the magnitude of the main shock are calculated. The results show that linearity exists between the subsurface rupture length and the magnitude of the main shock independent of the slip type, as well as between the magnitude of the main shock (M) and its largest aftershock (Ma). The mean difference M–Ma is almost one unit. In the 40% of the analyzed sequences, the largest aftershock occurred within one day after the main shock.The fact that the aftershock sequences show the same behavior for earthquakes that occur in the same region supports the theory that the spatial and temporal characteristics are strongly related to the stress distribution of the fault area.     

Radioactivity and geochemistry of granulites and some related rocks from the saxonian granulite complex

Summary The distribution of radioactive(Th, U, K), major and selected trace(Rb, Sr, Ba, Y, Zr, V, Cr, Ni) elements of granulites from the Saxonian Granulite Complex was studied. Similarly to the South Bohemian granulites, the Saxonian granulites can be divided according to the contents of their major and trace elements into two main groups, groupA containing mostly acid and subacid granulites (K ₂ O>2.5%, SiO ₂ >68%), and groupB containing mostly intermediate and basic granulites (K ₂ O<2.5%, SiO ₂ <68%). Statistically significant differences between groupsA andB were found for all major oxides and several trace elements(Rb, V, Cr, Ni). The Saxonian granulites follow the same calc-alkaline trend as the South Bohemian, granulitesA being placed mostly in the rhyolite field and granulitesB mostly in the dacite, andesite and basalt fields of this trend. The investigated granulites are characterized by a considerable scatter ofTh andU contents accompanied by very variableTh/U ratios; theTh andU concentrations of granulitesA are substantially lower than is usual for rocks of corresponding acidity.

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¶rt;a an¶rt;u a¶rt;uamu(Th, U, K) u ua ¶rt;u(Rb, Sr, Ba, Y, Zr, V, Cr, Ni) m aum n¶rt;a aaum na. naa, m u¶rt;aum n uu aam n aaum u ¶rt;u am aua, u u uu. aum n u uu ma a¶rt;um ¶rt; ¶rt;nn; nnA nua¶rt;ama a au¶rt; u au¶rt;aum (K ₂ O>2,5%, Si O ₂ >68%), nnB ¶rt;u u aum (K ₂ O<2,5%, SiO ₂ <68%). ¶rt; muunnau mm mamumuu m au ¶rt; a u u ¶rt; m ¶rt;u m(Rb, V, Cr, Ni). auaum n¶rt;¶rt;m um- m¶rt; a u -uaum;aumA a¶rt;ma a uum n, uaumB a a ¶rt;aum, a¶rt;um u aam n m m¶rt;a. ¶rt;aum — u unnA — aamum uu ¶rt;au da¶rt;uamu mTh uU.

     

Case 25 application of the concentration parameter of seismoactive faults to Southern California

In this paper we evaluate the present state of the seismic regime in Southern California using the concentration parameter of seismogenic faults (K _sf ,Sobolev andZavyalov, 1981). The purpose of this work is to identify potential sites for large earthquakes during the next five or ten years. The data for this study derived from the California Institute of Technology's catalog of southern California earthquakes, and spanned the period between 1932 to June 1982. We examined events as small asM _L 1.8 but used a magnitude cutoff atM _L =3.3 for a detailed analysis. The size of the target earthquakes (M _M ) was chosen as 5.3 and 5.8.The algorithm for calculatingK _sf used here was improved over the algorithm described bySobolev andZavyalov (1981) in that it considered the seismic history of each elementary seismoactive volume. The dimensions of the elementary seismoactive volumes were 50 km×50 km and 20 km deep. We found that the mean value ofK _sf within 6 months prior to the target events was 6.1±2.0 for target events withM _L 5.3 and 5.41.8 for targets withM _L 5.8. Seventy-three percent of the targets withM _L 5.8 occurred in areas whereK _sf was less than 6.1. The variance of the time between the appearance of areas with lowK _sf values and the following main shocks was quite large (from a few months to ten years) so this parameter cannot be used here for accurate predictions of occurrence time.Regions where the value ofK _sf was below 6.1 at the end of our data set (June, 1982) are proposed as the sites of target earthquakes during the next five to ten years. The most dangerous area is the area east of San Bernardino whereK _sf values are presently between 2.9 and 3.7 and where there has been no earthquake withM _L 5.3 since 1948.     

The secular variation of the geomagnetic field in Egypt in the last 5000 years

The palaeo-intensities (F _a) of the geomagnetic field in Egypt at some ages are determined by archaeomagnetic measurements and found to be:F _a=36.2 T at 3100 B.C., F_a=46.8 T at 3000 B.C.,F _a=36.5 T at 2780 B.C., 49.0 T at 2500 B.C., 36.4 T at 2200 B.C., 57.5 T at 1990 B.C., 62.1 T atca 1400 B.C., 61.5 T at 1400 B.C., 69.9 T at 600 B.C., 59.3 T at 550 B.C., 79.9 T at 460 B.C., 73.7 T at 450 B.C., 69.7 T at 320 B.C., 56.2 T at A.D. 50, 64.9 T, at A.D. 400, 54.4 T at A.D. 300, 57.5 T at A.D. 700 and 43.0 T at A.D. 1975.The palaeo-inclinations (I _a) at some ages are found to be:I _a=24.2° at 420 B.C., 44° at A.D. 50, 60.7° at A.D. 703 and 42° at A.D. 1795.The measured values ofF _a are affected by the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility of the samples by 13% to 20% of the expected correct value. The suitable correction of this effect is by multiplyingF by 1/((1+0.2(/90)) andF by 1/((1–0.13 (/90)), whereF andF are the resultant values ofF _a if the laboratory field is perpendicular or parallel to the wall of the sample during the Thelliers' experiments, respectively, and is the angle between the direction of natural remnant magnetization of the sample and the direction of the laboratory field.The results of this paper, together with the previous results for Egypt and the neighbourhoods, lead to the production of the secular variation curve of the geomagnetic field in Egypt for the last 5000 years. The intensity of the field shows a periodicity of about 400 years with multiples.     

Spectral analysis and earthquake scaling of the Petatlan earthquake (M s =7.6) aftershocks,recorded at stations along the pacific coast and between the coast and Mexico City

Spectral parameters have been estimated for 214 Petatlan aftershocks recorded at stations between Petatlan and Mexico City and between Petatlan and Acapulco. The spectral parameters were used to obtain empirical relations for the estimation of seismic moment from coda length and fromM _L . Stress drops, using Brune's model, were calculated for these aftershocks. Six events with large stress drop are located within a previously suggested asperity, and seven more suggest a boundary zone at the intersection of the Petatlan and Zihuatanejo aftershock rupture volumes. Stress drops increase with increasing seismic moment up to 10²⁰ dyne-cm but appear to be constant at greater moment values. The peak horizontal velocity times distance of aftershocks recorded near the coast and between the coast and Mexico City (30 to 270 km away), scales linearly with seismic moment, and predicts well the peak horizontal values of large (M _s 7.0) coastal thrust events recorded on rock sites at Mexico City. Peak horizontal velocity is a straightforward measurement, thus this relation allows us to evaluate expected ground motion between the Pacific coast and Mexico City from the seismic moment of subduction related earthquakes along the coast.     

Observed Response of the Ionospheric F2–Layer and Lower Thermosphere to Geomagnetic Storms during High Solar Activity

The response of the critical frequency of the ionosphere F2–layer, described by its main Fourier components (daily constant, diurnal and semidiurnal waves) and the lower thermosphere dynamics to the geomagnetic storms in July 1991 and February 1992 is studied. The daily constant displays a negative response, however, the magnitude of reaction depends on the season and latitude. The amplitudes of diurnal and semidiurnal waves increase during a geomagnetic storm, as this enhancement is very strong at high latitudes in winter. The prevailing neutral wind, especially the zonal wind, shows an inclination to decrease during the geomagnetic storm (the effect is more distinct in summer). The amplitudes of diurnal and semidiurnal tides also demonstrate a tendency toward reduction during high geomagnetic activity.     

Wasserstandserhöhungen in der Deutschen Bucht infolge von Schwingungen und Schwallerscheinungen und deren Bedeutung bei der Sturmflut vom 16./17. Februar 1962

Zusammenfassung Nach den Erfahrungen im Windstau- und Sturmflutwarndienst des Deutschen Hydrographischen Instituts müssen bei Wasserstands- oder Sturmflutvorausberechnungen, außer einer statistisch ermittelten Beziehung Windfeld-Windstau, der statische Luftdruck, die Böigkeit des Windes sowie die Inhomogenität des Windfeldes berücksichtigt werden. Der noch verbleibende Reststau wird untersucht, soweit er dem Betrage nach größer als 30 cm ist.Es lassen sich nachweisen: 1. Fortschreitende Wellen, die mit Luftdruckschwankungen in Resonanz stehen, 2. Querschwingungen der Nordsee, 3. Schwallerscheinungen in der Deutschen Bucht, die mit den an der englischen Küste bekannten external surges in Beziehung gesetzt werden. Es wird dargestellt, wie diese wellenförmigen Wasserstandserhöhungen bei der Vorhersage berücksichtigt werden können. Zum Schluß wird eine Aufgliederung der bei der Sturmflut vom 16./17. Februar 1962 gemessenen Wasserstandserhöhungen auf die oben dargelegte Weise gegeben.

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Elevations of water level in the German Bight due to oscillations and surges and their importance to the storm surge of 16/17th February 1962

Summary According to the experiences made by the Storm Surge Warning Service of Deutsches Hydrographisches Institut in predicting water level and storm surges, it is necessary to consider not only the relation wind field — wind effect, calculated by statistical means, but also the squally character of the wind, the static atmospheric pressure, and the inhomogeneity of the wind field. The still remaining residual wind effect is analysed, as far as its value exceeds 30 cm.The following phenomena have been verified: 1. Progressive waves caused by atmospheric pressure variations (resonance case), 2. Transverse oscillations of the North Sea, 3. Surges in the German Bight that may be related to the external surges, a well known phenomenon on the British coasts. It is discussed how these wave-shaped elevations of the water level can be considered in predicting storm surges. Finally, the different elevations of the water level, measured during the storm surge of 16th to 17th February, 1962, are analysed with the aid of the afore mentioned method.

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Elévations du niveau de la mer dues aux oscillations et aux ondes de tempêtes et leur importance à l'inondation du 16^e et du 17^e février 1962 dans la Deutsche Bucht

Résumé Suivant les expériences que le Service d'Avertissement des Marées de Tempêtes au Deutsches Hydrographisches Institut a faites à l'occasion de la prévision des ondes de tempêtes, il s'est montré nécessaire de tenir compte non seulement de la relation entre le champ du vent et l'effet du vent calculée à l'aide des moyens statistiques mais qu' il faut aussi bien considérer le vent à rafales, la pression atmosphérique statique et l'inhomogénéité du champ du vent. L'effet résiduel du vent qui pourtant reste, est analysé en tant que sa valeur s'élève à plus de 30 centimètres.Les phénomènes suivants ont été vérifiés: 1⁰ «Ondes progressives» causées par des variations de la pression atmosphérique (cas de résonance), 2⁰ «Oscillations transversales» de la mer du Nord, 3⁰ «Houles» dans la Deutsche Bucht qui peuvent être associées aux houles externes (external surges), phénomènes bien connus sur les côtes britanniques. On discute de quelle manière on pourrait tenir compte de ces élévations ondulatoires du niveau de la mer dans la prévision des ondes de tempêtes. Enfin, les élévations diverses du niveau de la mer, mesurées à l'occasion de l'inondation du 16^e et du 17^e février 1962, sont analysées à l'aide de la méthode décrite ci-dessus.

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Ein Vortrag wurde am 11. Oktober 1962 auf der Meteorologentagung in Hamburg gehalten.     

Stratospheric ozone variability near the IMF sector boundary

Summary We search for the effects of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) sector boundary crossing (SBC) in upper stratospheric ozone. The SBUV data (Nimbus-7) at the 10, 3 and 1 hPa levels are analysed for latitudes 45° N and 55° N for winters of the period December 1979 to December 1982. An effect of the IMF SBC wos only found at the 10 hPa level. These first results concerning the IMF SBC effect in upper stratospheric ozone are rather preliminary.

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¶rt;m uu nu mau () nam aum n () a mam. SBUV ¶rt;a (u-7) a nm ¶rt;au 10, 3 u 1a aauum ¶rt; um 45° u 55° . . ua nu¶rt;a ¶rt;a 1979 – ¶rt;a 1982. m uu a¶rt; m a 10a. mu n mam n uuu a mam m n¶rt;aumu.