Taking the Pulse of Mountains: Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Variability

An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change across a broad range of climates and mountain ecosystems in the northwestern U.S.A.     

Relationship between projected changes in future climatic suitability and demographic and functional traits of forest tree species in Spain

The response of plant species to future climate conditions is probably dependent on their ecological characteristics, including climatic niche, demographic rates and functional traits. Using forest inventory data from 27 dominant woody species in Spanish forests, we explore the relationships between species characteristics and projected changes in their average climatic suitability (occurrence of suitable climatic conditions for a species in a given territory) obtained by empirical niche-based models, under a business-as-usual climate change scenario (A1, HadCM3, 2001–2100). We hypothesize that most species will suffer a decline in climatic suitability, with a less severe for species (i) currently living in more arid climates or exhibiting a broader current climatic niche; (ii) with higher current growth rates; (iii) with functional traits related to resistance to water deficits. The analysis confirm our hypothesis since apart from a few Mediterranean species, most species decrease their climatic suitability in the region under future climate, characterized by increased aridity. Also, species living in warmer locations or under a wider range of climatic conditions tend to experience less decrease in climatic suitability. As hypothesized, a positive relationship was detected between current relative growth rates and increase in future climatic suitability. Nevertheless, current tree mortality did not correlate with changes in future climatic suitability. In contrast with our hypothesis, functional traits did not show a clear relationship with changes in climate suitability; instead species often presented idiosyncratic responses that, in some cases, could reflect past management. These results suggest that the extrapolation of species performance to future climatic scenarios based on current patterns of dominance is constrained by factors other than species autoecology, particularly human activity.     

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

Climatic change is likely to affect Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests in several important ways. In this paper, we address the role of climate in four forest ecosystem processes and project the effects of future climatic change on these processes across Washington State. First, we relate Douglas-fir growth to climatic limitation and suggest that where Douglas-fir is currently water-limited, growth is likely to decline due to increased summer water deficit. Second, we use existing analyses of climatic controls on tree species biogeography to demonstrate that by the mid twenty-first century, climate will be less suitable for key species in some areas of Washington. Third, we examine the relationships between climate and the area burned by fire and project climatically driven regional and sub-regional increases in area burned. Fourth, we suggest that climatic change influences mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks by increasing host-tree vulnerability and by shifting the region of climate suitability upward in elevation. The increased rates of disturbance by fire and mountain pine beetle are likely to be more significant agents of changes in forests in the twenty-first century than species turnover or declines in productivity, suggesting that understanding future disturbance regimes is critical for successful adaptation to climate change.     

Local climatic drivers of changes in phenology at a boreal-temperate ecotone in eastern North America

Ecosystems in biogeographical transition zones, or ecotones, tend to be highly sensitive to climate and can provide early indications of future change. To evaluate recent climatic changes and their impacts in a boreal-temperate ecotone in eastern North America, we analyzed ice phenology records (1975?C2007) for five lakes in the Adirondack Mountains of northern New York State. We observed rapidly decreasing trends of up to 21?days less ice cover, mostly due to later freeze-up and partially due to earlier break-up. To evaluate the local drivers of these lake ice changes, we modeled ice phenology based on local climate data, derived climatic predictors from the models, and evaluated trends in those predictors to determine which were responsible for observed changes in lake ice. November and December temperature and snow depth consistently predicted ice-in, and recent trends of warming and decreasing snow during these months were consistent with later ice formation. March and April temperature and snow depth consistently predicted ice-out, but the absence of trends in snow depth during these months, despite concurrent warming, resulted in much weaker trends for ice-out. Recent rates of warming in the Adirondacks are among the highest regionally, although with a different seasonality of changes (early winter > late winter) that is consistent with other lake ice records in the surrounding area. Projected future declines in snow cover could create positive feedbacks and accelerate current rates of ice loss due to warming. Climate sensitivity was greatest for the larger lakes in our study, including Wolf Lake, considered one of the most ecologically intact ??wilderness lakes?? in eastern North America. Our study provides further evidence of climate sensitivity of the boreal-temperate ecotone of eastern North America and points to emergent conservation challenges posed by climate change in legally protected yet vulnerable landscapes like the Adirondack Park.     

Climate affects severity and altitudinal distribution of outbreaks in an eruptive bark beetle

Temperature warming and the increased frequency of climatic anomalies are expected to trigger bark beetle outbreaks with potential severe consequences on forest ecosystems. We characterized the combined effects of climatic factors and density-dependent feedbacks on forest damage caused by Ips typographus (L.), one of the most destructive pests of European spruce forests, and tested whether climate modified the interannual variation in the altitudinal outbreak range of the species. We analyzed a 16-year time-series from the European Alps of timber loss in Picea abies Karsten forests due to I. typographus attacks and used a discrete population model and an information theoretic approach to compare multiple competing hypotheses. The occurrence of dry summers combined with warm temperatures appeared as the main abiotic triggers of severity of outbreaks. We also found an endogenous negative feedback with a 2-year lag suggesting a potential important role of natural enemies. Forest damage per hectare averaged 7-fold higher where spruce was planted in sites warmer than those within its historical climatic range. Dry summers, but not temperature, was related to upward shifts in the altitudinal outbreak range. Considering the potential increased susceptibility of spruce forests to insect outbreaks due to climate change, there is growing value in mitigating these effects through sustainable forest management, which includes avoiding the promotion of spruce outside its historical climatic range.     

Importance of colonization and competition in forest landscape response to global climatic change

The tree species composition of a forested landscape may respond to climate change through two primary successional mechanisms: (1) colonization of suitable habitats and (2) competitive dynamics of established species. In this study, we assessed the relative importance of competition and colonization in forest landscape response (as measured by the forest type composition change) to global climatic change. Specifically, we simulated shifts in forest composition within the Boundary Waters Canoe Area of northern Minnesota during the period 2000–2400?AD. We coupled a forest ecosystem process model, PnET-II, and a spatially dynamic forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate landscape change. The relative ability of 13 tree species to colonize suitable habitat was represented by the probability of establishment or recruitment. The relative competitive ability was represented by the aboveground net primary production. Both competitive and colonization abilities changed over time in response to climatic change. Our results showed that, given only moderate-frequent windthrow (rotation period = 500?years) and fire disturbances (rotation period = 300?years), competition is relatively more important for the short-term (<100?years) compositional response to climatic change. For longer-term forest landscape response (>100?years), colonization became relatively more important. However, if more frequent fire disturbances were simulated, then colonization is the dominant process from the beginning of the simulations. Our results suggest that the disturbance regime will affect the relative strengths of successional drivers, the understanding of which is critical for future prediction of forest landscape response to global climatic change.     

Identifying climatic analogs for Wisconsin under 21st-century climate-change scenarios

There is a deep disconnect between scientific and public concern about climate change. One reason is that global climate change is a fairly abstract concept with little perceived relevance, so a key challenge is to translate climate-change projections into locally concrete examples of potential impacts. Here we use climate analog analyses as an alternative method for identifying and communicating climate-change impacts. Our analysis uses multiple downscaled general circulation models for the state of Wisconsin, at 0.1 decimal degree resolution, and identifies contemporary locations in North America that are the most similar to the projected future climates for Wisconsin. We assess the uncertainties inherent in climate-change projections among greenhouse gas emission scenarios, time windows (mid-21st century vs. late 21st-century) and different combinations of climate variables. For all future scenarios and simulations, contemporary climatic analogs within North America were found for Wisconsin’s future climate. Closest analogs are primarily 200–500 km to the south-southwest of their Wisconsin reference location. Temperature has the largest effect on choice of climatic analog, but precipitation is the greatest source of uncertainty. Under the higher-end emission scenarios, the contemporary climatic analogs for Wisconsin’s end-21st-century climates are almost entirely outside the state. Climate-analog analyses offer a place-based means of assessing climate impacts that is complementary to the species-based approaches of species distributional models, and carries no assumptions about the characterization and conservatism of species niches. The analog method is simple and flexible, and can be readily extended to other regions and other environmental variables.     

Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England: Effects of a modern land-use regime

The future forests of eastern North America will be shaped by at least three broad drivers: (i) vegetation change and natural disturbance patterns associated with the protracted recovery following colonial era land use, (ii) a changing climate, and (iii) a land-use regime that consists of geographically variable rates and intensities of forest harvesting, clearing for development, and land protection. We evaluated the aggregate and relative importance of these factors for the future forests of New England, USA by simulating a continuation of the recent trends in these drivers for fifty-years, nominally spanning 2010 to 2060. The models explicitly incorporate the modern distribution of tree species and the geographical variation in climate and land-use change. Using a cellular land-cover change model in combination with a physiologically-based forest landscape model, we conducted a factorial simulation experiment to assess changes in aboveground carbon (AGC) and forest composition. In the control scenario that simulates a hypothetical absence of any future land use or future climate change, the simulated landscape experienced large increases in average AGC—an increase of 53% from 2010 to 2060 (from 4.2 to 6.3 kg m⁻²). By 2060, climate change increased AGC stores by 8% relative to the control while the land-use regime reduced AGC by 16%. Among land uses, timber harvesting had a larger effect on AGC storage and changes in tree composition than did forest conversion to non-forest uses, with the most pronounced impacts observed on private corporate-owned land in northern New England. Our results demonstrate a large difference between the landscape’s potential to store carbon and the landscape’s current trajectory, assuming a continuation of the modern land-use regime. They also reveal aspects of the land-use regime that will have a disproportionate impact on the ability of the landscape to store carbon in the future, such as harvest regimes on corporate-owned lands. This information will help policy-makers and land managers evaluate trade-offs between commodity production and mitigating climate change through forest carbon storage.     

Assisted tree migration can reduce but not avert the decline of forest ecosystem services in Europe

European forests are facing multiple natural and anthropogenic pressures that are expected to become more severe in the next decades. Tree diversity is projected to decline in many areas across the continent. How this will affect the provision of forest services remains an open question, whose answer depends, among others, on the practical and theoretical challenges of incorporating assisted migration into climate adaptation strategies. Here, we tackle the issue by combining a large dataset of tree species occurrences, future climatic projections, and data on tree functional traits and tree-specific forest services into a novel modelling framework. We estimate that, by the end of the century and under a natural dispersal scenario, the provision of forest services would decrease on average by 15% in Europe (for RCP 4.5; 23% for RCP 8.5), and up to 52% (70% for RCP 8.5) in the Mediterranean. To explore if and how management could reduce the projected losses, we simulated a suite of alternative assisted migration strategies aimed at identifying, for each locality, the tree species communities offering the best compromise in terms of resilience to climate change and delivery of specific combinations of ecosystem services. Such strategies could reduce losses of services by 10% (15%) on average in Europe, and even increase service availability in the Alpine and Boreal regions but not in the Mediterranean, where losses will remain as high as 33% (54% for RCP 8.5). Our findings highlight how science-driven management strategies could be vital to reduce an otherwise dramatic, European-wide decline of forest services. Our results are qualitatively robust to different assumptions on future carbon emissions and related climate trajectories. That is, our simulated assisted migration strategies identify similar tree species communities under different pathways (RCP 4.5 vs RCP 8.5). This makes our approach a powerful tool for forest management, as it generates advice that is valid regardless of whether, and to what extent, human society will steer away from business-as-usual emission trajectories.     

Divergence of the potential invasion range of emerald ash borer and its host distribution in North America under climate change

Climate change is likely to induce range divergence of invasive herbivore insects and native host trees given their different response rates to temperature increase. In this study we used the invasion of emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire), which is host-specific to ash (Fraxinus spp.), to demonstrate the significant implications of this climate change induced insect-host divergence for management of invasive species. The least constrained climatic limits of EAB were derived from its native range in East Asia, then projected to North America under the current and future climate conditions, and finally compared with the assumedly static ash distribution. Results suggest that the divergence between the invasion range of EAB and the distribution of ash in North America is likely to enlarge as climate change proceeds. In this case, many original ash stands could remain intact in the southern range, possibly forming refugia of the host species. The realization of this prediction, however, requires that the spread of EAB be reduced by continued management effort to allow climate change to take effect in time. Our study highlights the important role climate change has in the course of biological invasion and herbivore-host dynamics, which provides key information for continental scale pest risk prediction and strategic planning.     

Tomorrow’s Forests: Adapting to A Changing Climate

Today’s forests are largely viewed as a natural asset, growing in a climate envelope, which favors natural regeneration of species that have adapted and survived the variability’s of past climates. However, human-induced climate change, variability and extremes are no longer a theoretical concept. It is a real issue affecting all biological systems. Atmospheric scientists, using global climate models, have developed scenarios of the future climate that far exceed the traditional climate envelope and their associated forest management practices. Not all forests are alike, nor do they share the same adaptive life cycles, feedbacks and threats. Much of tomorrow’s forests will become farmed forests, managed in a pro-active, designed and adaptive envelope, to sustain multiple products, values and services. Given the life cycle of most forest species, forest management systems will need to radically adjust their limits of knowledge and adaptive strategies to initiate, enhance and plan forests in relative harmony with the future climate. Protected Areas (IUCN), Global Biosphere Reserves (UNESCO) and Smithsonian Institution sites provide an effective community-based platform to monitor changes in forest species, ecosystems and biodiversity under changing climatic conditions.     

Decreasing teleconnections with inter-site distance in monthly climatic data and tree-ring width networks in a mountainous Alpine area

Summary The similarities in time series recorded at sites which are distant from each other are called teleconnections. In this paper, the loss of such correlations with inter-site distance was investigated for both climatic and dendrochronological data sets, with 70 tree-ring chronologies. A dense network of weather stations was studied in the southeastern French Alps, covering complex climatic gradients over three departments. 78 sites with precipitation data (with a total of 48 756 monthly values), and 48 stations that recorded temperature (with 20 722 monthly mean values) were analysed. In the same area, four coniferous species (mountain pine and stone pine, European larch and Norway spruce) provided 37 ring-width chronologies for high elevation sites near the timberline. Both silver fir and Norway spruce provided a second tree-ring chronology network for 33 different sites at lower elevations. The teleconnections between precipitation series were found to be higher than those observed for temperature over short distances, but the maximum threshold distance was lower (193 km) compared to a positive correlation distance that exceeds 500 km for temperature. The maximum temperatures had stronger teleconnections than minimum values (522 km versus 476 km), since the latter are linked more with other site factors, such as slope, exposure and local topography. As expected, the tree-ring chronologies showed weaker teleconnections than the climatic series, with a threshold distance of 374 km obtained for all high elevation forests. The coniferous species with high intra-specific teleconnections over large distances were, in decreasing importance, Pinus uncinata (> 500 km), Picea abies (477 km), Pinus cembra (over 254 km) and Larix decidua (over 189 km only). The two former species showed the highest intra-specific correlations (with mean correlation R=0.625 and 0.666). The dendrochronological teleconnections were found to have a extent lesser for trees species that depend on rainfall (such as larch, and stone pine). They are enhanced, however, for temperature sensitive species such as spruce and mountain pine (a drought resistant tree). Therefore, these two latter conifers appear to be especially suitable for climatic reconstruction over large distances in mountainous areas. However, teleconnections within silver fir (Abies alba) and spruce chronologies were sharply reduced (over 131 km and 135 km) in lower elevation forests, underlining the interest of timberline forests for dendroclimatology. A better knowledge of the spatial correlations in climatic series and ring-width data may enable the optimisation of weather station networks. It may also permit a better choice of weather stations used for dendroclimatology, either for tree-ring and climate relationship calibration or for climate reconstructions. In dendrochronology, wood dating also requires the knowledge of to what extent remote ring-width chronologies can be used. Received September 11, 2000 Revised March 26, 2001     

Modeling the Influence of Topographic Barriers on Treeline Advance at the Forest-Tundra Ecotone in Northwestern Alaska

The response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming has important implications to potential feedbacks to climate. The interactions between topography, climate, and disturbance could alter recruitment patterns to reduce or offset current predicted positive feedbacks to warming at high latitudes. In northern Alaska the Brooks Range poses a complex environmental and ecological barrier to species migration. We use a spatially explicit model (ALFRESCO) to simulate the transient response of subarctic vegetation to climatic warming in the Kobuk/Noatak River Valley (200 × 400 km) in northwest Alaska. The model simulations showed that a significantly warmer (+6 °C) summer climate would cause expansion of forest through the Brooks Range onto the currently treeless North Slope only after a period of 3000–4000 yr. Substantial forest establishment on the North Slope didnot occur until temperatures warmed 9 °C, and only following a 2000 yr time lag. The long time lags between change in climate and change in vegetation indicate current global change predictions greatly over-estimate the response of vegetation to a warming climate in Alaska. In all the simulations warming caused a steady increase in the proportion of early successional deciduous forest. This would reduce the magnitude of the predicted decrease in regional albedo and the positive feedback to climate warming. Simulation of spruce forest refugia on the North Slope showed forest could survive with only a 4 °C warming and would greatly reduce the time lag of forest expansion under warmer climates. Planting of spruce on the North Slope by humans could increase the likelihood of large-scale colonization of currently treeless tundra. Together, the long time lag and deciduous forest dominance would delay the predicted positive regional feedback of vegetation change to climatic warming. These simulated changes indicate the Brooks Range would significantly constrain regional forest expansion under a warming climate, with similar implications for other regions possessing major east-west oriented mountain ranges.     

Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: a bird’s eye view

Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in temperature and precipitation differ significantly between spring migration habitats in the desert southwest and breeding habitats throughout western North America. Such differences may ultimately increase costs to individual birds and thereby threaten the long-term population viability of many species.     

Simulating forest dynamics in a complex topography using gridded climatic data

The forest model ForClim was used to evaluate the applicability of gap models in complex topography when the climatic input data is provided by a global database of 0.5° resolution. The analysis was based on 12 grid cells along an altitudinal gradient in the European Alps. Forest dynamics were studied both under current climate as well as under four prescribed 2 × CO₂ scenarios of climatic change obtained from General Circulation Models, which allowed to assess the sensitivity of mountainous forests to climatic change.Under current climate, ForClim produces plausible patterns of species composition in space and time, although the results for single grid cells sometimes are not representative of reality due to the limited precision of the climatic input data.Under the scenarios of climatic change, three responses of the vegetation are observed, i.e., afforestation, gradual changes of the species composition, and dieback of today's forest. In some cases widely differing species compositions are obtained depending on the climate scenario used, suggesting that mountainous forests are quite sensitive to climatic change. Some of the new forests have analogs on the modern landscape, but in other cases non-analog communities are formed, pointing at the importance of the individualistic response of species to climate.The applicability of gap models on a regular grid in a complex topography is discussed. It is concluded that for their application on a continental scale, it would be desirable to replace the species in the models by plant functional types. It is suggested that simulation studies like the present one must not be interpreted as predictions of the future fate of forests, but as means to assess their sensitivity to climatic change.     

Phenology-mediated effects of climatic change on some simulated British Columbia forests

We added certain aspects of species-specific phenology, and of local frost regimes to a standard invididual-based patch model of forest stand dynamics, which we used to explore the possible consequences of four climate-change scenarios in eight distinct forest regions in British Columbia, Canada. According to model projections, lowland temperate coastal forests will be severely stressed because forest tree species will no longer have their winter-chilling requirements met. High-elevation coastal forests may either remain stable or decrease in productivity, while interior subalpine forests may eventually resemble those now found in the coastal mountains. Southern interior forests are likely to persist relatively unchanged, while boreal and sub-boreal forests of the northern interior may become dominated by Douglas-fir and western larch, rather than by spruce and pine as at present. The rate of change in forest composition may be very high in some cases. Changes under the four climate-change scenarios generally vary in magnitude but not in direction. This exercise illustrates that different forest types might respond to a changing climate for different reasons, and at different rates.     

Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO₂ change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) – HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 – were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st century. The economy-oriented A2 emission scenario would lead to higher NPP and stronger carbon sinks according to the simulations than the environment-oriented B2 scenario.     

What risks matter? Public views about assisted migration and other climate-adaptive reforestation strategies

The world’s forests play an important role in regulating climate change through their capacity to sequester carbon. At the same time, they are also increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In the western Canadian province of British Columbia, changes in temperature, precipitation, and disturbance regimes are already impacting forests. In response to these observed and anticipated changes, adapted reforestation practices are being developed and proposed as a means to help forest ecosystems adjust to changing climatic conditions. One such practice under consideration is assisted migration—planting species within or outside of the native historical range into areas that are anticipated to be climatically suitable in the future. We used a survey of British Columbia’s population at large (n?=?1923) to quantify levels of support for a range of potential reforestation options (including assisted migration) to adapt to climate change, and to explore what factors can help predict this support. Our findings reveal that the likely location of potential public controversy resides not with the potential implementation of assisted migration strategies per se, but rather with assisted migration strategies that involve movement of tree species beyond their native range.     

Evaluation of coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene using palaeovegetation data from the northern hemisphere extratropics

We have used the BIOME4 biogeography–biochemistry model and comparison with palaeovegetation data to evaluate the response of six ocean–atmosphere general circulation models to mid-Holocene changes in orbital forcing in the mid- to high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. All the models produce: (a) a northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest, in response to simulated summer warming in high-latitudes. The northward shift is markedly asymmetric, with larger shifts in Eurasia than in North America; (b) an expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America and Eurasia, in response to increased temperatures during the growing season; (c) a northward expansion of temperate forests in eastern North America, in response to simulated winter warming. The northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest and the northward expansion of temperate forests in North America are supported by palaeovegetation data. The expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America is consistent with palaeodata, although the extent may be over-estimated. The simulated expansion of xerophytic vegetation in Eurasia is not supported by the data. Analysis of an asynchronous coupling of one model to an equilibrium-vegetation model suggests vegetation feedback exacerbates this mid-continental drying and produces conditions more unlike the observations. Not all features of the simulations are robust: some models produce winter warming over Europe while others produce winter cooling. As a result, some models show a northward shift of temperate forests (consistent with, though less marked than, the expansion shown by data) and others produce a reduction in temperate forests. Elucidation of the cause of such differences is a focus of the current phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.     

Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on a dynamic vegetation model driven with RCP8.5 climate projections from 19 GCMs

Future changes of terrestrial ecosystems due to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate are subject to a large degree of uncertainty, especially for vegetation in the Tropics. Here, we evaluate the natural vegetation response to projected future changes using an improved version of a dynamic vegetation model (CLM-CN-DV) driven with climate change projections from 19 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The simulated equilibrium vegetation distribution under historical climate (1981–2000) has been compared with that under the projected future climate (2081–2100) scenario for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) to qualitatively assess how natural potential vegetation might change in the future. With one outlier excluded, the ensemble average of vegetation changes corresponding to climates of 18 GCMs shows a poleward shift of forests in northern Eurasia and North America, which is consistent with findings from previous studies. It also shows a general “upgrade” of vegetation type in the Tropics and most of the temperate zones, in the form of deciduous trees and shrubs taking over C3 grass in Europe and broadleaf deciduous trees taking over C4 grasses in Central Africa and the Amazon. LAI and NPP are projected to increase in the high latitudes, southeastern Asia, southeastern North America, and Central Africa. This results from CO₂ fertilization, enhanced water use efficiency, and in the extra-tropics warming. However, both LAI and NPP are projected to decrease in the Amazon due to drought. The competing impacts of climate change and CO₂ fertilization lead to large uncertainties in the projection of future vegetation changes in the Tropics.