The Behavior of Sunspot Contrast during Cycle 23

Results are presented from a study of various sunspot contrast parameters in broadband red (672.3 nm) Cartesian full-disk digital images taken at the San Fernando Observatory (SFO) over eight years, 1997 – 2004, of the twenty-third sunspot cycle. A subset of over 2700 red sunspots was analyzed and values of average and maximum sunspot contrast as well as maximum umbral contrast were compared to various sunspot parameters. Average and maximum sunspot contrasts were found to be significantly correlated with sunspot area (r _s=− 0.623 and r _s=− 0.714, respectively). Maximum umbral contrast was found to be significantly correlated with umbral area (r _s=− 0.535). These results are in agreement with the works of numerous other authors. No significant dependence was detected between average contrast, maximum contrast, or maximum umbral contrast during the rising phase of the solar cycle (r _s=0.024, r _s=0.033, and r _s=0.064, respectively). During the decay phase, no significant correlation was found between average contrast or maximum contrast and time (r _s=− 0.057 and r _s=0.009, respectively), with a weak dependence seen between maximum umbral contrast and cycle (r _s=0.102).     

Sunspot Group Decay

We examine daily records of sunspot group areas (measured in millionths of a solar hemisphere or μHem) for the last 130 years to determine the rate of decay of sunspot group areas. We exclude observations of groups when they are more than 60° in longitude from the central meridian and only include data when at least three days of observations are available following the date of maximum area for a group’s disk passage. This leaves data for over 18 000 measurements of sunspot group decay. We find that the decay rate increases linearly from 28 μHem day⁻¹ to about 140 μHem day⁻¹ for groups with areas increasing from 35 μHem to 1000 μHem. The decay rate tends to level off for groups with areas larger than 1000 μHem. This behavior is very similar to the increase in the number of sunspots per group as the area of the group increases. Calculating the decay rate per individual sunspot gives a decay rate of about 3.65 μHem day⁻¹ with little dependence upon the area of the group. This suggests that sunspots decay by a Fickian diffusion process with a diffusion coefficient of about 10 km² s⁻¹. Although the 18 000 decay rate measurements are lognormally distributed, this can be attributed to the lognormal distribution of sunspot group areas and the linear relationship between area and decay rate for the vast majority of groups. We find weak evidence for variations in decay rates from one solar cycle to another and for different phases of each sunspot cycle. However, the strongest evidence for variations is with latitude and the variations with cycle and phase of each cycle can be attributed to this variation. High latitude spots tend to decay faster than low latitude spots.     

Presence of LaO, ScO and VO Molecular Lines in Sunspot Umbral Spectra

High-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometer sunspot umbral spectra of the National Solar Observatory/National Optical Astronomy Observatory at Kitt Peak were used to detect rotational lines from 19 electronic transition bands of the molecules LaO, ScO and VO, in the wavenumber range of 11 775 to 20 600 cm⁻¹. The presence of lines from the following transitions is confirmed: A ² Π _r1/2 – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0; 0, 1), A ² Π _r3/2 – X ² Σ ⁺(1, 0), B ² Σ ⁺ – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0; 0, 1; 1, 0) and C ² Π _r1/2 – A′²Δ _r3/2(0, 0; 1, 1) of LaO; A ² Π _r3/2 – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0), A ² Π _r1/2 – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0) and B ² Σ ⁺ – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0) of ScO; and C ⁴ Σ ⁻ – X ⁴ Σ ⁻(0, 1; 1, 0; 0, 2) and (2, 0) of VO. However, the presence of A ² Π _r3/2 – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0) and C ² Π _r3/2 – A′²Δ _r5/2(0, 0; 1, 1) of LaO and C ⁴ Σ ⁻ – X ⁴ Σ ⁻(0, 0) of VO are found to be doubtful because the lines are very weak, and detections are difficult owing to heavy blending by strong rotational lines of other molecules. Equivalent widths are measured for well-resolved lines and, thereby, the effective rotational temperatures are estimated for the systems for which the presence is confirmed.     

Minimum of 2008 or the “quantum” Sun-2

The prolonged 2007–2009 minimum is a big surprise for solar physics. In order to reveal the causes, we analyze the variability of the general magnetic field (GMF) of the Sun as a star measured by CrAO and five other observatories since 1968 (more than 19000 daily field strengths B were obtained in 41 years). Sharp yearly mean extrema of the negative (S) field took place in 1969, 1990, and 2008, with the third extremum, in contrast to the two previous ones, having coincided with the sunspot minimum. This explains both the long duration of the minimum and the record (over the last 100 years) increase in the length of the Wolf cycle (no. 23) to 12 or more years. The S-field extrema followed with a period of 19.5 ± 1.1 yr—some mean between the 22.1 ± 0.3-yr sunspot cycle, the 18.6-yr saros, and the 19.9-yr Jupiter-Saturn conjunction period. It is pointed out that, for some unclear reason, the negative polarity dominated on the Sun in 1968–2008: the overall mean B = −0.021 ± 0.015 G. The existence of a second Sun that obeys the laws of quantum mechanics is hypothesized. The “quantum” model of the Sun-2 explains many properties of the “classical” Sun-1, including the coronal heating, cyclic activity, periodic variations in GMF, and its sector structure.     

Temporal Evolution of a Rapidly-Moving Umbral Dot

We performed two-dimensional spectroscopic observations of the preceding sunspot of NOAA 10905 located off disk center (S8 E36, μ≈0.81) by using the Interferometric BI-dimensional Spectrometer (IBIS) operated at the Dunn Solar Telescope (DST) of the National Solar Observatory, New Mexico. The magnetically insensitive Fe I line at 709.04 nm was scanned in wavelength repetitively at an interval of 37 s to calculate sequences of maps of the line-wing and line-core intensity, and the line-of-sight Doppler velocity at different line depths (3% to 80%). Visual inspection of movies based on speckle reconstructions computed from simultaneous broadband data and the local continuum intensity at 709.04 nm revealed an umbral dot (UD) intruding rapidly from the umbral boundary to the center of the umbra. The apparent motion of this object was particularly fast (1.3 km s⁻¹) when compared to typical UDs. The lifetime and size of the UD was 8.7 min and 240 km, respectively. The rapid UD was visible even in the line-core intensity map of Fe I 709.04 nm and was accompanied by a persistent blueshift of about 0.06 km s⁻¹.     

Characteristics of CMEs associated with solar flares and DH type II radio bursts based on source position

We studied the characteristics of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) associated with solar flares and Deca-Hectometric (DH) type II radio bursts, based on source position during 23rd solar cycle (1997–2007). We classified these CME events into three groups using solar flare locations as, (i) disk events (0–30^∘); (ii) intermediate events (31–60^∘) and (iii) limb events (61–90^∘). Main results from this studies are, (i) the number of CMEs associated with solar flares and DH-type IIs decreases as the source position approaches from disk to limb, (ii) most of the DH CMEs are halo (72%) in disk events and the number of occurrence of halo CMEs decreases from disk to limb, (iii) the average width and speed of limb events (164^∘ and 1447 km s⁻¹) are higher than those of disk events (134^∘ and 1035 km s⁻¹) and intermediate events (146^∘ and 1170 km s⁻¹) and (iv) the average accelerations for disk, intermediate and limb events are −8.2 m s⁻², −10.3 m s⁻² and −4.5 m s⁻² respectively. These analysis of CMEs properties show more dependency on longitude and it gives strong evidence for projection effect.     

A Preliminary Estimate of the Size of the Coming Solar Cycle 24, based on Ohl’s Precursor Method

For many purposes (e.g., satellite drag, operation of power grids on Earth, and satellite communication systems), predictions of the strength of a solar cycle are needed. Predictions are made by using different methods, depending upon the characteristics of sunspot cycles. However, the method most successful seems to be the precursor method by Ohl and his group, in which the geomagnetic activity in the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is found to be well correlated with the sunspot maximum of the next cycle. In the present communication, the method is illustrated by plotting the 12-month running means aa(min ) of the geomagnetic disturbance index aa near sunspot minimum versus the 12-month running means of the sunspot number Rz near sunspot maximum [aa(min ) versus Rz(max )], using data for sunspot cycles 9 – 18 to predict the Rz(max ) of cycle 19, using data for cycles 9 – 19 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 20, and so on, and finally using data for cycles 9 – 23 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 24, which is expected to occur in 2011 – 2012. The correlations were good (∼+0.90) and our preliminary predicted Rz(max ) for cycle 24 is 142±24, though this can be regarded as an upper limit, since there are indications that solar minimum may occur as late as March 2008. (Some workers have reported that the aa values before 1957 would have an error of 3 nT; if true, the revised estimate would be 124±26.) This result of the precursor method is compared with several other predictions of cycle 24, which are in a very wide range (50 – 200), so that whatever may be the final observed value, some method or other will be discredited, as happened in the case of cycle 23.     

Identification of SrF molecular lines in the spectrum of sunspot umbra

A high resolution spectrum of a sunspot umbra is used for identification of rotational lines due to (0, 0) band of the A ²Π–X ²Σ⁺ system and (0, 0), (1, 1), and (2, 2) bands of the B ²Σ⁺–X ²Σ⁺ system of the molecule SrF. The published sunspot umbral spectrum obtained with Fourier Transform Spectrometer and solar telescope of National Solar Observatory/National Optical Astronomy Observatory at Kitt Peak was used for the study. The new identification of more than 200 SrF lines in the umbral spectrum confirms that this molecule accounts for the majority of lines in the spectral range 15050 to 15360 cm⁻¹ and 17240 to 17300 cm⁻¹. Equivalent widths have been measured for well-resolved lines of these bands and the effective rotational temperatures have been estimated for which the presence is confirmed.     

Allan Sandage and the cosmic expansion

This is an account of Allan Sandage’s work on (1) The character of the expansion field. For many years he has been the strongest defender of an expanding Universe. He later explained the CMB dipole by a local velocity of 220±50 km s⁻¹ toward the Virgo cluster and by a bulk motion of the Local supercluster (extending out to ∼3500 km s⁻¹) of 450–500 km s⁻¹ toward an apex at l=275, b=12. Allowing for these streaming velocities he found linear expansion to hold down to local scales (∼300 km s⁻¹). (2) The calibration of the Hubble constant. Probing different methods he finally adopted—from Cepheid-calibrated SNe Ia and from independent RR Lyr-calibrated TRGBs—H ₀=62.3±1.3±5.0 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹.     

Solar Cycle Predictions based on Solar Activity at Different Solar Latitudes

Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R _z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) with R _z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86) for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation +0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R _z(max )=129.7±16.3.     

Long-Term Variations in the Growth and Decay Rates of Sunspot Groups

Using the combined Greenwich (1874 – 1976) and Solar Optical Observatories Network (1977 – 2009) data on sunspot groups, we study the long-term variations in the mean daily rates of growth and decay of sunspot groups. We find that the minimum and the maximum values of the annually averaged daily mean growth rates are ≈ 52% day⁻¹ and ≈ 183% day⁻¹, respectively, whereas the corresponding values of the annually averaged daily mean decay rates are ≈ 21% day⁻¹ and ≈ 44% day⁻¹, respectively. The average value (over the period 1874 – 2009) of the growth rate is about 70% more than that of the decay rate. The growth and the decay rates vary by about 35% and 13%, respectively, on a 60-year time scale. From the beginning of Cycle 23 the growth rate is substantially decreased and near the end (2007 – 2008) the growth rate is lowest in the past about 100 years. In the extended part of the declining phase of this cycle, the decay rate steeply increased and it is largest in the beginning of the current Cycle 24. These unusual properties of the growth and the decay rates during Cycle 23 may be related to cause of the very long declining phase of this cycle with the unusually deep and prolonged current minimum. A ≈ 11-year periodicity in the growth and the decay rates is found to be highly latitude and time dependent and seems to exist mainly in the 0° – 10° latitude interval of the southern hemisphere. The strength of the known approximate 33 – 44-year modulation in the solar activity seems to be related to the north-south asymmetry in the growth rate. Decreasing and increasing trends in the growth and the decay rates indicate that the next 2 – 3 solar cycles will be relatively weak.     

22-Year periodicity in the solar differential rotation

Using the data on sunspot groups compiled during 1879–1975, we determined variations in the differential rotation coefficientsA andB during the solar cycle. The variation in the equatorial rotation rateA is found to be significant only in the odd numbered cycles, with an amplitude ∼ 0.01 μ rads^-1. There exists a good anticorrelation between the variations of the differential rotation rateB derived from the odd and even numbered cycles, suggesting existence of a ‘22-year’ periodicity inB. The amplitude of the variation ofB is ∼ 0.05 μ rad s^-1.     

Solar Polarity Dependence of Cosmic Ray Power Spectra Observed with Mawson Underground Muon Telescopes

Power spectral density (PSD) of cosmic rays has been calculated from hourly averaged counts observed by underground muon telescopes located at Mawson over the low-frequency range 2.7×10⁻⁷ – 1.4×10⁻⁴ Hz. The first two harmonics of the solar daily variation are well defined for even cycles (20 and 22) whereas only the first harmonic is defined in cycle 21. The amplitude of the diurnal variation is lower for even cycles than for the odd cycle. The spectral power of the odd cycle exceeds those of the even cycles. The spectra are flatter and have lower power when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is directed away from the Sun above the current sheet (A>0) than when the IMF is directed toward the Sun above the current sheet (A<0). The spectra imply that heliospheric magnetic turbulence may be more variable on time scales of several years than previously suspected.     

Electron-positron annihilation lines and decaying sterile neutrinos

If massive sterile neutrinos exist, their decays into photons and/or electron-positron pairs may give rise to observable consequences. We consider the possibility that MeV sterile neutrino decays lead to the diffuse positron annihilation line in the Milky Way center, and we thus obtain bounds on the sterile neutrino decay rate Γ _e ≥10⁻²⁸ s⁻¹ from relevant astrophysical/cosmological data. Also, we expect a soft gamma flux of 1.2×10⁻⁴–9.7×10⁻⁴ ph cm⁻² s⁻¹ from the Milky Way center which shows up as a small MeV bump in the background photon spectrum. Furthermore, we estimate the flux of active neutrinos produced by sterile neutrino decays to be 0.02–0.1 cm⁻² s⁻¹ passing through the earth.     

Streamer Belt and Chains as the Main Sources of Quasi-Stationary Slow Solar Wind

Synoptic maps of white-light coronal brightness from SOHO/LASCO C2 and distributions of solar wind velocity obtained from interplanetary scintillation are studied. Regions with velocity V≈300 – 450 km s⁻¹ and increased density N>10 cm⁻³, typical of the “slow” solar wind originating from the belt and chains of streamers, are shown to exist at Earth’s orbit, between the fast solar wind flows (with a maximum velocity V _max≈450 – 800 km s⁻¹). The belt and chains of streamers are the main sources of the “slow” solar wind. As the sources of “slow” solar wind, the contribution from the chains of streamers may be comparable to that from the streamer belt.     

Stokes Diagnostics of 2D MHD-Simulated Solar Magnetogranulation

The properties of solar magnetic fields on scales less than the spatial resolution of solar telescopes are studied. A synthetic infrared spectropolarimetric diagnostic based on a 2D MHD simulation of magnetoconvection is used for this. Analyzed are two time sequences of snapshots that likely represent two regions of the network fields with their immediate surroundings on the solar surface with unsigned magnetic flux densities of 300 and 140 G. In the first region from the probability density functions of the magnetic field strength it is found that the most probable field strength at log τ ₅=0 is equal to 250 G. Weak fields (B<500 G) occupy about 70% of the surface, whereas stronger fields (B>1000 G) occupy only 9.7% of the surface. The magnetic flux is −28 G and its imbalance is −0.04. In the second region, these parameters are correspondingly equal to 150 G, 93.3%, 0.3%, −40 G, and −0.10. The distribution of line-of-sight velocities on the surface of log τ ₅=−1 is estimated. The mean velocity is equal to 0.4 km s⁻¹ in the first simulated region. The average velocity in the granules is −1.2 km s⁻¹ and in the intergranules it is 2.5 km s⁻¹. In the second region, the corresponding values of the mean velocities are equal to 0, −1.8, and 1.5 km s⁻¹. In addition the asymmetry of synthetic Stokes V profiles of the Fe i 1564.8 nm line is analyzed. The mean values of the amplitude and area asymmetry do not exceed 1%. The spatially smoothed amplitude asymmetry is increased to 10% whereas the area asymmetry is only slightly varied.     

Two Regularities in the Coronal Green-Line Brightness – Magnetic Field Coupling and the Heating of the Corona

To study the quantitative relationship between the brightness of the coronal green line 530.5 nm Fe xiv and the strength of the magnetic field in the corona, we have calculated the cross-correlation of the corresponding synoptic maps for the period 1977 – 2001. The maps of distribution of the green-line brightness I were plotted using every-day monitoring data. The maps of the magnetic field strength B and the tangential B _t and radial B _r field components at the distance 1.1 R _⊙ were calculated under potential approximation from the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) photospheric data. It is shown that the correlation I with the field and its components calculated separately for the sunspot formation zone ±30° and the zone 40 – 70° has a cyclic character, the corresponding correlation coefficients in these zones changing in anti-phase. In the sunspot formation zone, all three coefficients are positive and have the greatest values near the cycle minimum decreasing significantly by the maximum. Above 40°, the coefficients are alternating in sign and reach the greatest positive values at the maximum and the greatest negative values, at the minimum of the cycle. It is inferred that the green-line emission in the zone ±30° is mainly controlled by B _t, probably due to the existence of low arch systems. In the high-latitude zone, particularly at the minimum of the cycle, an essential influence is exerted by B _r, which may be a manifestation of the dominant role of large-scale magnetic fields. Near the activity minimum, when the magnetic field organization is relatively simple, the relation between I and B for the two latitudinal zones under consideration can be represented as a power-law function of the type I ∝ B ^q. In the sunspot formation zone, the power index q is positive and varies from 0.75 to 1.00. In the zone 40 – 70°, it is negative and varies from −0.6 to −0.8. It is found that there is a short time interval approximately at the middle of the ascending branch of the cycle, when the relationship between I and B vanishes. The results obtained are considered in relation to various mechanisms of the corona heating.     

The Sun’s Large-Scale Magnetic Field and Its Long-Term Evolution

The Sun’s large-scale external field is formed through the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions and its subsequent dispersal over the solar surface by differential rotation, supergranular convection, and meridional flow. The observed evolution of the polar fields and open flux (or interplanetary field) during recent solar cycles can be reproduced by assuming a supergranular diffusion rate of 500 – 600 km² s⁻¹ and a poleward flow speed of 10 –20 m s⁻¹. The nonaxisymmetric component of the large-scale field decays on the flow timescale of ∼1 yr and must be continually regenerated by new sunspot activity. Stochastic fluctuations in the longitudinal distribution of active regions can produce large peaks in the Sun’s equatorial dipole moment and in the interplanetary field strength during the declining phase of the cycle; by the same token, they can lead to sudden weakenings of the large-scale field near sunspot maximum (Gnevyshev gaps). Flux transport simulations over many solar cycles suggest that the meridional flow speed is correlated with cycle amplitude, with the flow being slower during less active cycles.     

Investigation of Long-Period Oscillations of Sunspots with Ground-Based (Pulkovo) and SOHO/MDI Data

We applied special data-processing algorithms to the study of long-period oscillations of the magnetic-field strength and the line-of-sight velocity in sunspots. The oscillations were investigated with two independent groups of data. First, we used an eight-hour-long series of solar spectrograms, obtained with the solar telescope at the Pulkovo Observatory. We simultaneously measured Doppler shifts of six spectral lines, formed at different heights in the atmosphere. Second, we had a long time series of full-disk magnetograms (10 – 34 hour) from SOHO/MDI for the line-of-sight magnetic-field component. Both ground- and space-based observations revealed long-period modes of oscillations (40 – 45, 60 – 80, and 160 – 180 minutes) in the power spectrum of the sunspots and surrounding magnetic structures. With the SOHO/MDI data, one can study the longer periodicities. We obtained two new significant periods (> 3σ) in the power spectra of sunspots: around 250 and 480 minutes. The power of the oscillations in the lower frequencies is always higher than in the higher ones. The amplitude of the long-period magnetic-field modes shows magnitudes of about 200 – 250 G. The amplitude of the line-of-sight velocity periodicities is about 60 – 110 m s⁻¹. The absence of low-frequency oscillations in the telluric line proves their solar nature. Moreover, the absence of low-frequency oscillations of the line-of-sight velocity in the quiet photosphere (free of magnetic elements) proves their direct connection to magnetic structures. Long-period modes of oscillation observed in magnetic elements surrounding the sunspot are spread over the meso-granulation scales (10″ – 12″), while the sunspot itself oscillates as a whole. The amplitude of the long-period mode of the line-of-sight velocity in a sunspot decreases rapidly with height: these oscillations are clearly visible in the spectral lines originating at heights of approximately 200 km and fade away in lines originating at 500 km. We found a new interesting property: the low-frequency oscillations of a sunspot are strongly reduced when there is a steady temporal trend (strengthening or weakening) of the sunspot’s magnetic field. Another important result is that the frequency of long-period oscillations evidently depends on the sunspot’s magnetic-field strength.     

Intensity and Magnetic Field Distribution of Sunspots

We study the relationship between the brightness (I) and magnetic field (B) distributions of sunspots using 272 samples observed at the San Fernando Observatory and the National Solar Observatory, Kitt Peak, whose characteristics varied widely. We find that the I – B relationship has a quadratic form for the spots with magnetic field less than about 2000 G. The slope of the linear part of the I – B curve varies by about a factor of three for different types of spots. In general the slope increases as the spot approaches disk center. The I – B slope does not have a clear dependency on the spot size but the lower limit appears to increase as a function of the ratio of umbra and penumbra area. The I – B slope changes as a function of age of the sunspots. We discuss various sunspot models using these results.