Earthquake source parameters as inferred from the body waveform modeling, southern Turkey

Focal mechanism parameters of some significant earthquakes from southern Turkey have been estimated using either the body waveforms or the first motions of P-waves. It is observed that fault plane solutions derived from first motions may not be well constrained and may often be in error because of poor signal-to-noise ratios at some stations, poorly distributed recording stations in azimuth, lack of recognition of the reversed polarities at some stations, and positions of stations in terms of the crustal velocity structure, focal depth and, hence, take-off angles in the source area. The use of the inversion method introduces a considerable improvement in the focal parameters estimated in previous studies that have been used to construct seismotectonic models in the study area. The focal depths inferred from the inversion of body waveforms for the earthquakes occurring in southwestern Turkey are compatible with those reported by the ISC bulletins and other previous studies while the focal depths of earthquakes from the Antalya Bay are found to be less than those given by different agencies. Waveform inversion of earthquakes that have occurred in and around the Antalya Bay implies a low velocity layer showing azimuthal dependence. Hence, depth of rupture and lateral extent of velocity structure are of importance in the investigation of earthquake faulting process in this area. The source time duration of shallow earthquakes is generally longer than that for the deep focus earthquakes from the Antalya Bay and the Rhodes area. The events with relatively short and simple time functions may be interpreted as low stress drop events relative to the crustal ones.     

震级标度的不一致与震源的复杂性

矩震级标度是从地震矩换算过来的,换算关系中地震应力降与剪切模量估算的不准确会对矩震级标度产生影响.本文利用1976年1月~2006年12月发生在东经75°~135°,北纬15°~55°的M≥5地震的矩震级与面波震级,探讨了应力降与剪切模量的比值Δσ/μ在中国及邻区以及在不同震级下的分布特征.中国大陆及邻区的Δσ/μ值分布较分散,不同地区的Δσ/μ值明显不同,且绝大部分值大于矩震级和地震矩换算关系中使用的全球平均值.对于同一地区不同震级的地震,其Δσ/μ值也不一样,震级大,Δσ/μ值通常也大.研究认为剪切模量和地震应力降的估计对矩震级标度的影响不能忽略.     

Estimating ground motion incoherence through finite source simulation: a case study of the 1980 El-Asnam Earthquake

Spatial variability of ground motions has significant influence on dynamic response of extended structures such as bridges and tunnels. In this study, the widely used finite-source ground motion simulation approach, the so-called Empirical Green’s Function (EGF) method, is extended to synthesize seismic motions across an array of stations located at bedrock in the epicentral region of the 1980 El-Asnam region (North-West Algeria). The target event being simulated is the October 10 1980 \( M_{s} = 7.2 \) Earthquake, and the EGF is obtained from the ground motion recorded at Sogedia Factory station during the 8 November 1980 \( M_{L} = 5.6 \) aftershock. Coherency functions are then estimated from the simulated ground accelerations. A parametric study investigating the influence of shear wave velocity, earthquake magnitude, and epicentral distance is conducted by simulating ground acceleration for different scenarios using the Hybrid Green’s Function method. The main finding of the study is that finite source effects can cause significant loss in coherency at bedrock in the near-field. In the far-field, the source effect alone does not seem to produce incoherent motion, which implies that scattering and local site effects could be dominating there. Furthermore, coherency functions are found to be more sensitive to inter-station separation in the near-field than in the far-field. Increasing shear wave velocity seems to increase coherency functions, and larger earthquakes seem to produce more incoherent motion than smaller ones. The simulation method presented here produces incoherent motion mainly due to the finite source effect, while path effects are partially accounted for through the EGF, and local site effects are not considered. In this sense, the estimated coherency functions represent that of plane waves. A parametric model of plane wave coherency is calibrated and presented based on the simulation results. The results indicate that the parametric model can be used as a first approximation, and at least an upper bound of lagged coherency in the near-field region of the El-Asnam Earthquake scenario. This model could be useful in random vibration analysis or generation of spatially variable ground motion for time history analysis of lifeline structures in the study area.     

Earthquake Science and Technology as Well as Preparedness and Reduction of Earthquake Disaster in China

This paper systematically presents the state-of-the-art of preparedness and reduction of earthquake disasters in China. It contains abundant information on the goal, policy, working links, administrative organizations, and main scientific and technological approaches for earthquake disaster reduction in this country. The focus is placed on "taking science and technology as the foundation" and "management based on legal system."     

临震预报讨论--以2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震为例

以2001年昆仑山口西8．1级地震前的地磁低点位移、地震活动、磁暴倍九和热红外异常,讨论了综合临震预报问题。     

从汶川地震看震前的“微破裂波”

根据对包括汶川大地震等一些实测资料的分析,并借用断裂力学和断裂物理的概念,可以认为存在一种震前出现的“微破裂波”。即,震前地层中发生的“微破裂”过程可以产生“微破裂波”。由于破裂过程的微观复杂性,微破裂波中有电磁波、声波和重力波等不同成分,而且有频率覆盖范围宽、信号相对较弱等特点。微破裂波一般都产生于主破裂之前约1～10天之内。只要有合适的有着足够高灵敏度和足够宽的频率响应能方的仪器系统,就可能探测到微破裂波,也就获取了一种重要的有临震预警意义的信息。     

非对称声源多极子随钻声波测井实验室测量研究

现有的随钻声波测井通常采用三种测量方式:单极子、偶极子及四极子测量模式.分别采用单极子源、偶极子源和四极子源激发单极子、偶极子和四极子信号对地层速度信息进行测量.由于随钻测井环境比较复杂,钻杆在井孔中占据大部分空间,钻杆速度高于地层速度,导致接收到的信号中仪器波能量占主导,无法有效地提取地层的纵横波速度信息.本文探讨一种采用非对称偏心的点声源,一次激发,利用方位分布的四个接收器接收,经过合成后同时分别得到单极子、偶极子和四极子模式波信号的测量方法,为建立同时利用多极模式波信号测量地层纵横波速度的随钻声波测井实用技术提供基础.本文利用1:12的缩比模型在实验室对该方法进行了考察,实验结果证明,可以通过非对称点声源得到有效的地层单极子、偶极子和四极子模式波信号.通过分析和对比实测数据和理论模拟的频散曲线,本文进一步提出利用三种模式波的频散曲线联合反演确定地层横波速度的方法.     

Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem

In this review we consider an interdisciplinary problem of earthquake prediction involving economics. This joint research aids in understanding the prediction problem as a whole and reveals additional requirements for seismostatistics. We formulate the problem as an optimal control problem: Prossessing the possibility to declare several types of alerts, it is necessary to find an optimal changing alert types; each successful prediction prevents a certain amount of losses; total expected losses are integrated over the semi-infinite time interval. The discount factor is included in the model. Algorithmic and exact solutions are indicated.This paper is based on the recent results byMolchan (1990, 1991, 1992).     

谈"安评"工作中历史地震目录的规范化--以厦漳跨海大桥为例

编制完整可靠的历史地震目录是地震安全性评价工作的一项基础工作. 但目前的现状是, 最新版本的《中国历史强震目录（公元前23世纪～公元1911年）》中的某些参数在一些地区很难被认同. 本文以厦漳跨海大桥工程场地地震安全性评价工作为例, 在该工作的区域范围内, 分别将《中国历史强震目录（公元前23世纪～公元1911年）》和福建省地震局提供的地震目录逐条进行对比. 再分析几个影响较大的6级以上地震的时间、空间、强度参数的差异, 以及对工程场址影响的差异. 最后, 对今后“安评”工作中的历史地震目录的使用提出建议.     

以克罗地亚MS6.4地震为例检验震前应力集中现象

为检验大震发生之前是否有应力集中现象,本研究以2020年克罗地亚MS6.4地震及其序列为例,采用比较地震序列的震源机制之间最小空间旋转角的方法来研究应力变化关系.最终发现,主震发生前的一段时间内,该地区发生的不同地震之间的震源机制中心解有趋近主震震源机制中心解的趋势;主震之后,余震的震源机制和主震震源机制之间的差别逐渐增大,并离散开来.此变化趋势一方面是对"应力集中和应变能释放"假说的印证,另一方面则间接说明了该地区的应力分布.由于此次大地震的发生而进行了局部调整,致使局部应力集中趋于平缓,该地区的区域构造板块或许开始进入到下一个应力积累阶段.     

Using X-rays as an irradiation source for direct ESR dating of fossil teeth

In this paper we have tested the potential application of X-rays as an irradiation source in Electron Spin Resonance dating of tooth enamel. A range of modern and fossil samples were used to assess the feasibility of dose estimations using this alternative irradiator. The use of a known laboratory additive dose allows the calculation of an absorption equivalent coefficient between gamma-rays and X-rays. The results show that equivalent doses obtained with gamma-rays on fossil powder enamel was frequently less than the doses obtained on fragments using only X-rays. This agrees with other studies that gamma irradiation can lead to age underestimation problems, and also indicates that X-ray sources could be more suitable for ESR dating. Here, we show that testing penetration attenuation for each individual irradiation source is required to accurately estimate the maximum enamel thickness and produce reliable protocols. We conclude that X-rays are an alternative irradiation source for ESR dating protocols, however, limitations remain in particular with alpha efficiency.     

汶川Ms8．0地震驱动的同震及震后地质灾害空间分布

汶川大地震驱动了大量的同震崩塌、滑坡等地质灾害,这些地质灾害同时造成了山谷中大量的松散堆积物堆积,并将以泥石流的形式进入河流系统,造成震后大规模的泥石流地质灾害,这也是地震灾区在震后面临的最为严峻的问题。根据本项目组的卫星影像处理和实地观测工作,以及前人对同震地质灾害研究获得的数量资料,对同震地质灾害数量在平行于断裂方...     

一场地震谣传风波的启示

2001年7月28日夜山西省运城市出现了地震谣传，为从此次事件中吸取教训，对山西省运城市地震局在平息此次地震谣传过程中所采取的措施进行了回顾，分析了地震谣传产生的原因，查找了防震减灾工作中的不足，指出了今后工作中的努力方向。     

地震发生的极限时间

指出了成组出现的地震一般所遵从的规律，并以实例形式计算了中国历史上几次巨大地震，1996－1976年间各大地震间所满足的关系，并以越南来州地震为例说明了以较小地震报大震的方法。     

Pulled array continuous electrical sounding with an additional inductive source: an experimental design study

Electrical and electromagnetic profiling methods are used extensively in environmental geophysical investigations for many different purposes. The pulled array continuous electrical sounding (PACES) method, where a tail of electrodes is towed behind a small vehicle while continuously and simultaneously measuring several electrode configurations, has been used extensively for mapping the vulnerability of aquifers in Denmark. Measurements are taken every 1 m, and 10–15 km of profile can be achieved in one day.
This paper presents a theoretical study of the resolution capabilities of PACES measurements as they are now performed, and an experimental design study for including an inductive source in the measuring equipment. The joint interpretation of the galvanic data set of ordinary PACES measurements with inductive data from a horizontal magnetic dipole source will enhance the resolution capabilities of the data set significantly. The study is carried out as an analysis of the uncertainty of the model parameters of one-dimensional three-layer models using the estimation error variances of the inversion problem.
The results indicate that the addition of only two frequency data from a magnetic dipole source will substantially improve the resolution of the subsurface resistivity structure. The improvement is model dependent, but reduction in the relative error of model parameters by an order of magnitude is observed.     

Earthquake simulator tests and associated study of an 1/6-scale nine-story RC model

Earthquake simulator tests of a 1/6-scale nine-story reinforced concrete frame-wall model are described in the paper. The test results and associated numerical simulation are summarized and discussed. Based on the test data, a relationship between maximum inter-story drift and damage state is established. Equations of variation of structural characteristics (natural frequency and equivalent stiffness) with overall drifts are derived by data fitting, which can be used to estimate structural damage state if structural characteristics can be measured. A comparison of the analytical and experimental results show that both the commonly used equivalent beam and fiber element models can simulate the nonlinear seismic response of structures very well. Finally, conclusions associated with seismic design and damage evaluation of RC structures are presented.     

Earthquake source nucleation process in the zone of a permanently creeping deep fault

The worldwide practice of earthquake prediction, whose beginning relates to the 1970s, shows that spatial manifestations of various precursors under real seismotectonic conditions are very irregular. As noted in [Kurbanov et al., 1980], zones of bending, intersection, and branching of deep faults, where conditions are favorable for increasing tangential tectonic stresses, serve as “natural amplifiers” of precursory effects. The earthquake of September 28, 2004, occurred on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas deep fault in the area of a local bending of its plane. The fault segment about 60 km long and its vicinities are the oldest prognostic area in California. Results of observations before and after the earthquake were promptly analyzed and published in a special issue of Seismological Research Letters (2005, Vol. 76, no. 1). We have an original method enabling the monitoring of the integral rigidity of seismically active rock massifs. The integral rigidity is determined from the relative numbers of brittle and viscous failure acts during the formation of source ruptures of background earthquakes in a given massif. Fracture mechanisms are diagnosed from the steepness of the first arrival of the direct P wave. Principles underlying our method are described in [Lykov and Mostryukov, 1996, 2001, 2003]. Results of monitoring have been directly displayed at the site of the Laboratory (http://wwwbrk.adm.yar.ru/russian/1_512/index.html) since the mid-1990s. It seems that this information has not attracted the attention of American seismologists. This paper assesses the informativeness of the rigidity monitoring at the stage of formation of a strong earthquake source in relation to other methods.     

Osmium isotopes as petrogenetic and geological tracers

Using terrestrial osmium-enriched samples of known ages, we have shown that¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁶Os varies with time in result of the¹⁸⁷Re β^? radioactivity. Such a variation in the earth's mantle can be fitted by a straight line corresponding to¹⁸⁷Re/¹⁸⁶Os = 3.15 for the mantle, comparable to C1 carbonaceous chondrites. Using this result and the Re and Os contents of various rocks, several theoretical considerations and predictions can be deduced for the chemical evolution of the earth, such as a method for distinguishing between different processes of development of the continental crust. The special result of¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁶Os from Bushveld is discussed with respect to the possible existence of an “enriched” subcontinental mantle.     

Hierarchical Clustering Analysis of Focal Mechanism Solutions, Taking the Haicheng Earthquake Sequence as an Example

The currently used methods for analyzing a number of focal mechanism solutions are often ineffective for large samples.With the aid of the basic concept of hierarchical clustering methods for pattern recognition and in combination with the expression of focal mechanism solutions themselves,the sum of the angle between P-axes and the angle between T-axes of 2 solutions is defined as a distance,and a software for hierarchical clustering analysis by the shortest distance method and longest distance method is compiled.The number of types in the clustering results can be determined in accordance with different requirements.For focal mechanism solutions of the same type,the average position of each stress axis can be calculated by the method of vector composition and thereby the spatial orientation of the average focal mechanism solution can be determined.In order to test the feasibility and reliability of the software,hierarchical clustering analyses are made for the focal mechanism solutions of 24 earthquak     

Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process

The extrapolation in time of an earthquake sequence considered as a multidimensional stochastic point process is discussed. Estimates of seismic risk for both long- and short-term predictions are considered and an algorithm for the calculations is proposed. Several examples of short-term extrapolations are carried out by means of Monte Carlo simulations of the process. An assessment of the predictability of the seismic process shows that the catalog of strong earthquakes (M ? 7.0) contains about 0.4 bits of information per earthquake for the particular model of the process applied here.