高边坡工程风险源指标体系的研究与构建

随着我国国民经济的高速增长和现代化建设的日益加快,工程项目的数量越来越多,规模越来越大。因此,对工程项目的风险管理问题进行深入研究,努力探索规避和化解项目风险、降低风险损失的有效途径非常具有现实指导意义。其中构建项目风险评价指标体系是风险管理的关键,为进一步制定项目管理方案提供了依据。针对高边坡工程项目特点,建立了高边坡工程风险评价体系,并经实际工程应用,验证了应用该风险评价体系有较好的实用性。     

Integrating the effects of flood experience on risk perception with responses to changing climate risk

Flood management decision-makers face significant challenges as the climate changes. The perceptions of those affected by floods are critical to the successful implementation of adaptation responses; risk perceptions are affected by how information is communicated and, in turn, perceptions influence expectations on flood risk managers to respond. The links between flood experience, risk perception, and responses by individual households were examined in the Hutt Valley, New Zealand, through a household survey, a workshop and interviews with local government practitioners. Two propositions were tested: (1) that flood experience can influence flood risk perceptions; and (2) that flood experience can stimulate increased risk reduction and adaptation actions where changing climate risk is likely. Perceptions of responsibility for flood management were also examined. The study found that previous flood experience contributes to heightened perception of risk, increased preparedness of households, greater willingness to make household-level changes, greater communication with councils, and more advocacy for spatial planning to complement existing structural protection. Flood-affected households had a stronger preference for central government and communities having flood risk responsibilities, in addition to local government. Those who lacked experience were more likely to be normalised to their prior benign experiences and thus optimistic about flood consequences. These results suggest that harnessing positive aspects of experience and communication of changing risk through engagement strategies could help shift the focus from citizens’ expectation that governments will always provide protection, to a citizen–local government–central government dialogue about the changing character of flood risk and its implications, and build a ‘risk conscious’ society in which ‘sharing and bearing’ is considered desirable.     

A Portfolio Approach to Evaluating Natural Hazard Mitigation Policies: An Application to Lateral-Spread Ground Failure in Coastal California

In the past, efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site—specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site—specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate—scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard. and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations of each type.

The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake—induced lateral—spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral—spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (CIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies, one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone rule yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does; however, the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy.     

Planning for resettlement: building partnerships for,by, and with Indigenous peoples

Efforts in the United States to plan or implement relocation in response to climate risks have struggled to improve material conditions for participants, to incorporate local knowledge, and to keep communities intact. Mixed methodologies of community geography provide an opportunity for dialogue and knowledge-sharing to collaboratively diagnose the challenges of climate adaptation led by communities. In this article, we advance a participatory practice model for the co-creation of knowledge initiated during a two-day workshop with members from the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe from Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana, Yup’ik people from Newtok Village in Alaska, and researchers from the MIT Resilient Communities Lab. Building on prior scholarship of indigenizing climate change research, this article shares the experience of the workshop to support knowledge exchange and dialogue, with the goal of understanding how to build participatory and non-extractive community-academic partnerships. We reflect on the community values and principles used to guide this workshop to inform more inclusive and co-produced research partnerships, and pedagogies that can improve and assist the self-determination of groups impacted by climate change. Workshop presentations and discussions highlight interconnected themes of resources, systems & structures, regulatory imbalance, and resilience that underpin climate resettlement. We reflect on the narratives presented by members of both Indigenous tribes and NGO partners that illustrate the shortcomings of resettlement planning practices past and present as perpetuating existing inequality. In response to this structured knowledge exchange, we identify potential roles for community-academic partnerships that aim to improve the equity of existing resettlement models. We propose approaches for incorporating traditional knowledge into the pedagogy, discourse, and practice of academic planning programs.

     

极端地质灾害与风险

极端地质灾害与风险是本文提出的一个概念.在地球演进过程中,极端地质灾害被认为是小概率事件.但这并不意味这种小概率的自然灾害只发生在遥远的未来,也不能排除这种事件发生在我们现在或者未来不久几代人中间.2008年汶川8.0级强震,吞噬了数万人的生命,大量的建筑被损毁,就是这种极端自然灾害的典型实例.它再一次向人类发出警告,...     

地面沉降风险评价初探

平原区超采地下水引发的地面沉降地质灾害已成为影响这些地区经济可持续发展的重要因素,风险管理是实现灾害防治从被动应对向主动防御转变的标志。根据地面沉降地质灾害自身特点,从其易发性、易损性和抗风险能力三方面进行分析评价,初步构建了地面沉降风险评价指标体系,介绍了常用的数学模型方法和空间分析技术,最后以苏锡常地区为例进行了实例研究。结果表明,决定当前地面沉降区风险分布的首要因素是地区经济发展水平,就相同级别的地面沉降而言,其对经济发达地区所造成的侵害要高于经济欠发达地区;其次才是地面沉降灾害发生程度。由此建议加大抗灾投入,增强区域风险抵御能力。     

基于滑坡风险管理的宝塔山景区景点价值核算

依托国际上较通用的滑坡风险计算公式,以点评价为核心,对宝塔山景区各景点从价值指数、保护级别系数、专款指数、品牌系数、当地依托旅行社数目、时代系数等方面综合考虑,进行承灾体价值核算,尝试探索量化风险管理计算公式中的E（t）（承灾体价值）,不仅为宝塔山景区的防灾减灾提供参考,而且为关于风景区景点滑坡风险管理的进一步量化做出铺垫。     

安徽省重要矿产地质勘查项目区块（探矿权）设置研究

安徽省是我国矿产资源丰富的省份之一,是重要的煤炭、有色金属、建材及钢铁生产基地,矿业经济在安徽省的经济发展中占有十分重要的地位。为进一步加强探矿权管理,鼓励、支持社会资金参与矿产资源勘查开发,促进矿产资源管理健康有序发展,创新地质勘查开发新机制,实现安徽省地质找矿新的重大突破,特对安徽省重要矿产地质勘查项目区块(探矿权)设置进行研究。在安徽省矿产资源总体规划和地质勘查规划的总体框架下,对安徽省重要矿产勘查区、预留区、成果保护区的地质背景和成矿条件进行研究,进一步细化和实施地质勘查规划,突出重点矿种和重点成矿区带勘查工作,科学合理地划分勘查区块,设立矿产勘查项目区块(探矿权),为地质勘查及探矿权设置和整合提供技术依据。     

藏木水电站某标段边坡预应力锚固工程风险评价模型

藏木水电站某标段边坡预应力锚固工程施工中面临众多的风险,且存在多种不确定因素,项目管理难度大。构建了项目风险评价指标体系,使用三标度法和层次分析法对指标进行权重分析,引入了模糊综合评判模型,将管理者和专家的经验由定性转为定量,对项目风险进行了定量化评价,评价结论为＂风险较大＂,为进一步制定项目管理方案提供了依据。     

亚洲地区的流域—海岸相互作用：APN近期研究动态

在亚洲地区,不同流域的海岸带所接受的淡水、沉积物、营养物质和污染物质入海通量有着很大的差异。入海通量的特征受到流域人类活动的强烈影响,如水坝建设和化肥的大量施用。气候和海平面的变化也起了一定的作用。流域—海岸相互作用的特点是,入海物质通量的变化将导致流域、河口以及邻近水域的地貌、环境和生态系统的改变。在流域—海岸系统不断变化的情况下,为了改进流域—海岸系统开发的管理策略,应进行以下调查和研究工作：①在现场监测和观察的基础上,定量地描述上述变化;②了解引起上述变化的过程和机制;③发展预测未来变化的趋势和幅度的新方法、新技术;④将所获结果应用于流域—海岸系统的开发和管理实践。为了确定本研究领域今后10年的资助方向,APN (Asian Pacific Network for Global Change Research)召集了相关的学术研讨会。按照APN的部署,笔者负责完成了“流域—海岸相互作用”领域的研究课题建议,本文是这份文件的简要总结。     

崩塌滑坡地质灾害风险排序方法研究

我国地质灾害具有点多面广的分布特点,而地质灾害风险管控人力和能力有限,因此需要开展地质灾害风险排序工作,筛选出优先管控的地质灾害隐患点,确保地质灾害风险管控对策实施的针对性和高效性。地质灾害风险排序的实质是运用定量化风险评价计算出每处隐患点的风险值,然后根据风险值开展排序工作。目前定量化风险评价模型多用于单个地质灾害点风险评价,并未应用于大范围地质灾害风险排序工作,且模型较为复杂,推广应用较难。在分析崩塌、滑坡地质灾害与其环境因素间的响应关系及规律的基础上,提取崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的主控环境因子与诱发因子,联合人口、物质、资源等易损性因子建立地质灾害风险评价指标体系;基于岩石工程系统相互作用矩阵与专家打分法确定各级地质灾害风险评价指标因子权重,构建地质灾害风险评分体系;并根据风险评价定义,提出了能够快速定量化的简易地质灾害风险计算模型。以贵州省98处地质灾害隐患点为例,开展模型应用验证,风险排序结果与灾害管理机构主观认识的实际风险一致,验证了本模型的合理性与有效性,提高了地质灾害风险管控能力与效率。     

Individual risk evaluation for landslides: key details

Risk-taking is an essential part of life. As individuals, we evaluate risks intuitively and often subconsciously by comparing the perceived risks with expected benefits. We do this so commonly that it passes unnoticed, like when we decide to speed home from work or go for a swim. The comparison changes, however, when one entity (such as a government) imposes a risk evaluation on another person. For example, in a quantitative risk management framework, the estimated risk is compared with a tolerable risk threshold to decide if the person is ‘safe enough’. Landslide risk management methods are well established and there is consensus on tolerable life-loss risk thresholds. However, beneath this consensus lie several key details that are explored by this article, along with suggestions for refinement. Specifically, we suggest using the risk unit, micromort (one micromort equals a life loss risk of 1 in 1 million), in describing risk estimates and thresholds, to improve risk communication. For risk estimation, we provide guidance for defining and combining landslide scenarios and for recognizing where unquantified risk from low-probability/high-consequence scenarios ought to inform risk management decisions. For risk tolerance thresholds, we highlight the pitfalls of selecting unachievably low thresholds and suggest that there is no single universal threshold. Additionally, we argue that gross disproportion between costs and benefits of further risk reduction, which is integral to the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle, is a commonly unachievable and counter-productive condition for risk tolerance, and other conditions centered on proportionality often apply. Finally, we provide several figures that can be used as risk communication tools, to provide context for risk estimates and risk tolerance thresholds when these values are reported to decision makers and the public.

     

Maximising Multi-Stakeholder Participation in Government and Community Volcanic Hazard Management Programs; A Case Study from Savo, Solomon Islands

Participatory rural appraisal (PRA) methods and philosophies were trialed in a volcanic risk management planning and awareness activity for Savo Island, a historically highly destructive volcano in the Solomon Islands. Through a combination of methods we tried to combine the roles of facilitators and educators, and to involve the input of all stakeholders (from community to national government) in the process of volcanic risk management. The PRA approach was an ideal way to address the fundamental differences in outlook, education, needs, and roles of individuals and groups involved or affected. It was also an important catalyst to Savo island- or community-based planning initiatives, which are arguably the most important step toward the preparedness of the 2500 inhabitants of the island for any future destructive volcanic activity. We adapted almost every tenet of the PRA philosophy through inexperience, self-perceived importance and desire to combine both scientific and traditional views for Savo volcanic risk management planning. Nevertheless, what emerged from our experiences was an idea of how fundamentally well suited many PRA approaches are to initiating dialogue within diverse stakeholder groups, and deriving combined scientific/geologic and local/community risk assessments and mitigation action plans. The main challenge remaining includes increasing the involvement or voice of less powerful community members (women, youth, non-landowners) in risk management decision-making in such male-dominated hierarchical societies.     

山东省农村土地综合整治中权属管理问题研究

在农村土地整治工作中,土地权属管理是保护权利人合法权益、保证农村土地整治顺利进行的基础。因此,理顺土地权属关系、加强农村土地整治权属管理至为重要。该文对山东省66个土地综合整治项目和2006-2011年城乡建设用地增减挂钩项目涉及的土地权属管理工作进行了调研,全面分析了土地权属管理现状,结合工作中存在的问题,提出了相应的对策建议,以期为今后土地整治权属管理方面的深入研究起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

Modeling the integrated roles of insurance and retrofit in managing natural disaster risk: a multi-stakeholder perspective

This paper introduces a new modeling framework to understand and improve regional natural disaster risk management in the USA, including the interactions among key stakeholders and between the two important risk management mechanisms of insurance and retrofit. The framework includes a stochastic programming optimization to represent insurer decisions, which interacts with a utility-based model of individual homeowners’ decisions to insure and/or retrofit. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as inputs, and the decision models are integrated with a detailed regional catastrophe loss estimation model. This modeling framework is applied to a full-scale, realistic case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in Eastern North Carolina. Several alternative system configurations are considered that affect the incentives for adoption of alternative risk management methods. They include providing a government subsidy for insured homeowners to encourage retrofit, providing both a government subsidy and insurance rebate to reduce retrofit costs, and mandating insurance purchase with a cap on insurance premiums. For each configuration, outcomes are presented from the perspectives of all key stakeholders—primary insurer, homeowners (insured and uninsured, in high- and low-risk areas), reinsurers, and the government. Results suggest that it is possible to design policies in which all stakeholders can be better off simultaneously. Retrofit incentives for insured homeowners can be effective in linking and strengthening the benefits of retrofit and insurance. Mandatory insurance coupled with capped profit loading factors and possibly retrofit rebates from the insurer to the homeowner can also reduce overall system risk.     

Mountain hazards: reducing vulnerability by adapted building design

Despite the long tradition of technical mitigation on a catchment scale in European mountain regions, losses due to mountain hazards are still considerably high in number and monetary loss. Therefore, the concept of technical mitigation had been supplemented by land-use planning and, more recently, local structural protection. Local structural protection includes measures directly implemented at or adjacent to endangered objects, and has proven to be particularly cost-effective with respect to integral risk management strategies. However, the effect of local structural protection in reducing the vulnerability of elements at risk, and the associated consequences with respect to a reduction of structural vulnerability have not been quantified so far. Moreover, there is a particular gap in quantifying the expenditures necessary for local structural protection measures. Therefore, a prototype of residential building adapted to mountain hazards is presented in this study. This prototype is equipped with various constructional elements to resist the incurring impact forces, i.e., of fluvial sediment transport and of snow avalanches. According to possible design loads emerging from these hazard processes, the constructive design necessary is presented, and the amount of additional costs required for such an adaptation is presented. By comparing these costs with quantitative loss data it is shown that adapted building design is particularly effective to reduce the consequences of low-magnitude, high-frequency events in mountain regions.     

Hydrodynamic characteristics and sustainable use of a karst aquifer of high environmental value in the Cabrejas range (Soria,Spain)

This paper describes the research carried out in a karst aquifer located in Soria, Spain. The system presents considerable good-quality water resources, yielding a series of springs which constitute a “Natural Monument”. An integral study of the hydrological cycle is presented in order to characterize the hydrodynamic behavior of the aquifer. Research combines conventional geological and hydrogeological approaches with more innovative techniques such as speleo-diving. On the basis of relatively little available data, quantitative results are obtained. These include estimations on porosity, hydraulic conductivity, transmissivity, and groundwater renewal rate and aquifer reserves. A vulnerability assessment is carried out to evaluate the potential effects of overpumping. This is followed by a proposal for sustainable aquifer management. Since aquifers such as the one in this study are frequently found, this methodology could be successfully extrapolated to other cases.     

基于多期DEM和滑坡强度的滑坡风险评估

滑坡危险性定量评估是滑坡风险评估中的关键和难点,也是当前国际风险管理研究中的热点问题.以滑坡密集分布的黑方台南塬为研究区,以32处典型滑坡为研究对象,依据多期三维数字高程模型(DEM),提出了一种基于强度的滑坡危险性定量评估技术方法.根据多期三维地形信息的解译及野外调查,编制多期滑坡分布图,计算滑坡活动的频率.利用GIS技术,利用滑坡体积与速度的乘积计算滑坡强度.将滑坡危险性定义为滑坡频率和滑坡强度的乘积,同时调查和分析了黑方台地区各类承灾体的类型、价值及其在相应滑坡强度下的易损性,在此基础上开展了单体滑坡风险评估和黑方台南塬滑坡风险区划.     

Linking social capacities and risk communication in Europe: a gap between theory and practice?

Although both improved risk communication and the building of social capacities have been advocated as vital ways to increase societies?? resilience towards natural hazards across the world, the literature has rarely examined the ways in which these two concepts may integrate in theory and practice. This paper is an attempt to address this gap in a European context. It begins with a conceptual discussion that unites the literature on risk communication with the literature on social capacity building. We then use the insights from this discussion as a basis to conduct a review of 60 risk communication practices from across Europe. This review indicates a gap between theory and practice because, whilst the literature highlights the importance of integrated and coordinated communication campaigns featuring both a one-way transfer and a two-way dialogue between the public, stakeholders and decision-makers, the majority of the communication practices reviewed here appear to be relatively disparate initiatives that rely on one-way forms of communication. On the basis of these findings, we conclude by making some recommendations for the way in which such practices could be improved in order to be more supportive of social capacities across Europe.     

国际全球变化计划与世界数据中心的联合行动：1997年联合数据会议及其启示

对国际全球变化研究计划的数据信息系统和世界数据中心联合召开的会议，以及会议做出的双方进行有效数据合作的若干决定和今后共同中的行动计划做了详细介绍。并根据国际发展趋势对我国有关数据工作的对策进行探讨并提出了建议。