华南沿海一次暴雨中尺度对流系统的形成和发展过程

应用观测分析和数值模拟方法研究了2004年5月13～14日发生在华南西部沿海的一次暴雨中尺度对流系统（MCS）。结果发现：MCS开始发生在低层切变线南侧的偏南气流中,强盛时其水平范围达中口尺度,生命史近10个小时。在MCS的形成和发展过程中,低层的涡旋环流不明显,但其上空对流层中层500hPa上有流场的扰动与之对应。观测分析及数值模拟结果均表明沿海地形引起的辐合在对流的启动中有重要的影响。而对流发展起来后,由于凝结加热的作用,中层的扰动得到加强和发展,主要表现为涡度的增大,气旋性环流在500hPa高度附近表现最为明显,并在MCS东移发展的过程中起着重要的组织作用。MCS在有利地形触发作用下发生。并通过对流层中层扰动组织发展的过程,有别于华南其它一些暴雨过程常伴有低层涡旋系统向上发展的形式,有其独特的特征。还对中层扰动的增强过程和物理机制进行了分析,并提出了一个用于解释中层扰动对MCS组织发展影响的观点。     

不同云微物理方案对青藏高原一次强降水的模拟影响分析

利用WRF模式中三种云微物理参数化方案(Lin、Eta和WSM6)对青藏高原一次强降水过程进行模拟试验,将模拟降水结果与实测资料进行对比,以评估不同云微物理参数化方案对该区域降水过程的模拟性能。结果表明:三种方案均能够模拟出此次降水天气过程的发生,但在主要降水区域和降水强度两方面仍与实测资料存在偏差;在水凝物方面,三种方案对冰粒子的模拟较接近,Lin和WSM6方案模拟的雪粒子差异较大,但霰粒子无明显差异。进一步对比分析了Lin和WSM6方案模拟的云微物理转化过程,结果表明:这两种方案都表现出了霰向雨水转化的特点。在Lin方案中,通过水汽向霰粒子凝华、霰碰并水汽凝华生成的雪粒子以及霰碰并云水这三种过程生成的霰粒子最终融化为雨水。而在WSM6方案中,一方面水汽凝结成云水,云水被雪和霰粒子碰并收集转化为霰,之后霰融化为雨水;另一方面水汽凝华为冰粒子,一部分冰转化为雪,雪直接融化为雨水或转化为霰融化为雨水,另一部分冰转化为霰,霰融化为雨水。      

THE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG SOUTH CHINA COASTAL AREA

Observational analysis shows that a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) occurred on May 13- 14 2004 along the coastal area in South China. The MCS initiated among the southwesterly flows within a west-east orientation low-level shear line. Associated with the system, in its subsequent development stages, no distinct vortex circulation developed in low-level. Instead, a cyclonic flow disturbance was observed in the mid-troposphere. How the convection starts to develop and evolve into a MCS? With observational analysis and numerical simulation, the problem has been studied. The high-resolution MM5 simulation shows that topographic convergence along the coastal line and the nearby mountains in western South China plays an important role to initiate the MCS convection. Once the convection occurs, due to the condensation heating, a cooperative interaction between the preexisting mid-level disturbance and convection is created,which may greatly affect the MCS development during periods when the system continues moving eastward.Compared to some typical MCS that happen in Southern China, which are usually accompanied with upward development of cyclonic vorticity, the development and evolution of the investigated MCS shows distinguishing features. In this article, the physical mechanisms responsible for the intensification of mid- level disturbance are discussed, and a viewpoint to interpret the effects of mid-level disturbance on the MCS organizational development is proposed.     

EFFECTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION ON THE MONTHLY MEAN SIMULATION

Treatments of the boundary layer in a five-layer primitive equation model with mixed P—σcoordinates are improved by incorporating similarity theory,which is widely used at present.Twokinds of parameterization schemes of the boundary layer are designed,and static test and numericalsimulation are performed.It is found that the iterative scheme can fairly improve the simulation ofthe mean climate field in July.The abnormally strong heat low over the Tibetan Plateau isweakened to some extent.     

SENSITIVITY OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOIL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CHINA

The impacts of soil moisture(SM) on heavy rainfall and the development of Mesoscale Convection Systems(MCSs) are investigated through 24-h numerical simulations of two heavy rainfall events that occurred respectively on28 March 2009(Case 1) and 6 May 2010(Case 2) over southern China. The numerical simulations were carried out with WRF and its coupled Noah LSM(Land Surface Model). First, comparative experiments were driven by two different SM data sources from NCEP-FNL and NASA-GLDAS. Secondary, with the run driven by NASA-GLDAS data as a control one, a series of sensitivity tests with different degree of(20%, 60%) increase or decrease in the initial SM were performed to examine the impact of SM on the simulations. Comparative experiment results show that the 24-h simulated cumulative rainfall distributions are not substantially affected by the application of the two different SM data,while the precipitation intensity is changed to some extent. Forecast skill scores show that simulation with NASA-GLDAS SM data can lead to some improvement, especially in the heavy rain(芏50 mm) forecast, where there is up to 5% increase in the TS score. Sensitivity test analysis found that a predominantly positive feedback of SM on precipitation existed in these two heavy rain events but not with completely the same features. Organization of the heavy rainfall-producing MCS seems to have an impact on the feedback process between SM and precipitation. For Case 1, the MCS was poorly organized and occurred locally in late afternoon, and the increase of SM only caused a slight enhancement of precipitation. Drier soil was found to result in an apparent decrease of rainfall intensity,indicating that precipitation is more sensitive to SM reduction. For Case 2, as the heavy rain was caused by a well-organized MCS with sustained precipitation, the rainfall is more sensitive to SM increase, which brings more rainfall. Additionally, distinctive feedback effects were identified from different stages and different organization of MCS, with strong feedback between SM and precipitation mainly appearing in the early stages of the poorly organized MCS and during the late period of the well-organized MCS.     

江滩暴雨中尺度特征数值模拟

本文使用中尺度模式MM4模拟了江滩流域1991年7月6日－7月的暴雨过程，结果表明，引发此次暴雨的中尺度气施内存在中－β尺度的雨团，雨团的位置随时间的演变具有较明显的规律性，中尺度气施内存在明显的与雨区位置相对应的双涡度中心双辐合中心，其位置与预测资料的诊断分析结果较一致。     

凝结加热和地表通量对华南中尺度对流系统(MCS)发生发展的影响

通过有无凝结加热和地表通量影响的数值模拟对比研究，分析了非绝热过程对一次华南暴雨MCS发生发展过程的影响。结果表明：（1）凝结加热对MCS的降水影响很大，在MCS发展的各个时期，如不考虑凝结加热，MCS的降水强度很快减弱，无法继续发展。（2）凝结加热在MCS涡旋的形成期最为重要，在涡旋形成之后，影响相对减弱。（3）凝结加热通过对MCS发展过程的影响从而也影响了MCS环境场中尺度低空急流、高层辐散等中尺度结构特征的形成。（4）地表感热、潜热通量等边界层非绝热过程对MCS的形成也有重要影响；在暴雨MCS发生前期，地表非绝热过程造成气压下降，导致华南南部来自海洋的偏南风加大，辐合加强，从而使低层的湿度增大，气层变得更加不稳定，有利于对流的启动。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DURING THE FIRST RAINY SEASON OVER SOUTH CHINA*

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and observations collected during the SCSMEX,a mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurring over South China during 23-24 May 1998 has been studied with a numerical simulation using the Fifth Generation Penn-State/NCAR Mesoseale Modeling System (MMS).The successful simulations present us some interesting findings.The simulated MCS was a kind of meso-β scale system with a life cycle of about 11 hours.It generated within a small vortex along a cold front shear line.The MCS was characterized by severe convection.The simulated maximum vertical velocity was greater than 90 cm s^-1,and the maximum divergence at about 400 hPa.The rainfall rate of MCS exceeded 20 mm h^-1.To the right of the simulated MCS,a mesoscale low-level jet (mLLJ) was found.A strong southwesterly current could also be seen to the right of MCS above the mLLJ.This strong southwesterly current might extend up to 400 hPa.A column of cyclonic vorticity extended through most part of the MCS in the vertical direction.Additionally,the simulated MCS was compared favorably with the observational data in terms of location,precipitation intensity and evolution.     

北京市一次大雾过程边界层结构的模拟研究

利用一个包括土壤 植被 大气相互作用的一维边界层模式 ,对 1999年 11月发生在北京的一次大雾过程的边界层特征进行了数值模拟。通过与相应时段边界层观测资料的对比表明 ,模式能较好地模拟出雾的大气边界层结构特征 ,以及雾的发生、消散时间和持续过程。由于模式中包括了辐射和平流物理过程 ,因此 ,模拟结果进一步证实相应的雾属于平流辐射雾。另外 ,对模式模拟结果的不足之处和可能原因也进行了分析。     

不同分辨率对淮河流域连续暴雨过程影响的中尺度模拟试验

利用NCAR 和NOAA 发展的新一代中尺度模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecast),对2003年7 月上旬发生在我国淮河流域三个连续暴雨过程(7 月1—11 日)进行了数值模拟试验,研究的重点是了解不同水平分辨率(45、30、20 和10 km)对WRF 模拟结果的影响。模拟结果与观测的比较表明,WRF 模式能够合理地模拟不同时段的降水带以及平均环流形势的分布特征,对于区域平均等压面上的物理量也有较好的模拟性能。不同分辨率的模拟结果比较表明:不同分辨率对降水的模拟效果影响较大,提高模式水平分辨率有助于预报效果的改善,但高分辨率模拟的降水强度偏强,空报偏多;不同分辨率对环流形势的模拟效果影响不大,各个分辨率的低层风场误差都存在一个5～6 天的波动,并向模式的中高层传播,传播速度约为3 天。      

珠三角一次暖区强降水过程湿位涡的演变特征

首先利用常规资料分析了2008年6月13日发生在珠江三角洲地区的一次暖区强降水的天气背景,再借助于高时空分辨率的WRF中尺度数值模拟结果,对等压面湿位涡在强降水过程中的演变进行了诊断分析,结果表明:暴雨出现在高层高值MPV1和低层低值MPV1、低层高值MPV2的配置区,本次暴雨高层高值MPV1扰动来自西北和西南方向,低...     

一次强降水过程的中尺度对流系统模拟研究

1998年5月23～24日在珠江三角洲地区发生的特大暴雨过程是华南暴雨试验(HUAMEX)加密观测期间的一个典型个例,卫星云图与降水分布表明这是锋面附近与锋前暖区发生的两个中尺度对流系统(简称MCS)造成的强降水。使用非静力原始方程模式MM5较为成功地模拟了这次暴雨过程。根据数值模拟的结果,本文着重分析了发生在锋面上和锋前暖区的两类MCS的中尺度特征,并探讨了这两类MCS的差别。结果表明,两类MCS具有某些共同的中尺度特征,即对流系统的底层和顶部分别存在β尺度的低压和高压中心;低层流场辐合而在对流雨团的顶部辐散出流;对流系统内部具有暖心结构等,但锋面上的MCS较暖区中的对流系统具有更强的斜压性;二者内部的流场与三维运动结构也具有不同的特征,来自西南和偏南方向的空气从底部流入锋前暖区MCS时受到中低压的气压梯度力作用而加速;而锋面上MCS中不仅有来自锋前的暖湿空气,而且还有来自锋后的冷空气参加对流。MCS高空反气旋式发散气流和空气的加速运动反映出MCS顶部存在中尺度高压及向外的气压梯度力,轨迹分析也证明了MCS上空气流的这种非地转特征。     

珠三角北部一次暖区强降水过程中的地形作用

基于ERA5再分析资料、广东省风廓线雷达、雷达拼图产品和实况观测数据,分析了2020年6月7日夜间—8日珠三角（珠江三角洲）北部暖区强降水过程中主雨带与南岭南部地形走势一致的原因,阐释地形对此次强降水的触发和维持作用。结果表明：（1）此次过程发生在典型的暖区暴雨环流特征的背景下,主要影响系统为对流层中层弱短波槽扰动、低空急流和边界层急流脉冲等;（2）雷达回波表现为团状结构,多以对流单体形态生消,伴随明显的“列车效应”现象,但3个不同发展阶段内回波的持续时间、强度,以及触发地、传播和移动方向等均存在差异;（3）由于边界层西南（偏南）风增强和地形作用,新的对流单体在珠江口附近和珠三角西北侧被触发,同时由于南岭南侧地形对边界层暖湿气流的阻挡和拦截等作用,使得气流在珠三角北部形成明显的辐合抬升,造成该区域内对流单体移速减慢和汇聚,增强了降水强度;（4）强降水长时间的持续与海陆热力差异、冷池和边界层暖湿气流增强等引起的地面露点锋和中尺度辐合线有关。露点锋为强降水的发展和维持提供了热力不稳定条件,地面辐合线加强了对流层底层气流的辐合抬升,进一步增强了强降水区的降水强度。研究结果有助于认识珠三角北部...     

ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF 3DVAR AND ENSRF DIRECT ASSIMILATION OF RADAR DATA ON THE FORECAST OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT

The present study designs experiments on the direct assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity data collected by an S-band Doppler weather radar (CINRAD WSR-98D) at the Hefei Station and the reanalysis data produced by the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the WRF model with a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system and the WRF model with an ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) data assimilation system. In addition, the present study analyzes a Meiyu front heavy rainfall process that occurred in the Yangtze -Huaihe River Basin from July 4 to July 5, 2003, through numerical simulation. The results show the following. (1) The assimilation of the radar radial velocity data can increase the perturbations in the low-altitude atmosphere over the heavy rainfall region, enhance the convective activities and reduce excessive simulated precipitation. (2) The 3DVAR assimilation method significantly adjusts the horizontal wind field. The assimilation of the reflectivity data improves the microphysical quantities and dynamic fields in the model. In addition, the assimilation of the radial velocity and reflectivity data can better adjust the wind fields and improve the intensity and location of the simulated radar echo bands. (3) The EnSRF assimilation method can assimilate more small-scale wind field information into the model. The assimilation of the reflectivity data alone can relatively accurately forecast the rainfall centers. In addition, the assimilation of the radial velocity and reflectivity data can improve the location of the simulated radar echo bands. (4) The use of the 3DVAR and EnSRF assimilation methods to assimilate the radar radial velocity and reflectivity data can improve the forecast of precipitation, rain-band areal coverage and the center location and intensity of precipitation.     

下垫面特性突变时的内边界层数值研究

本文建立了一个考虑层结的二维内边界层数值模式,研究了下垫面粗糙度、温度、湿度突变引起的内边界层。结果表明:下垫面温度突变引起的温度内边界层与下垫面粗糙度突变引起的速度内边界层具有明显的差异。     

不同边界层参数化方案对台风“利奇马”模拟的影响研究

基于中尺度数值模式WRF,对比分析了六种大气边界层物理过程参数化方案（BouLac、MYJ、UW、YSU、ACM2、SH）对台风“利奇马”模拟结果的影响。结果表明,不同边界层方案对“利奇马”路径的模拟结果影响较小,但对其强度和结构演变的模拟结果影响显著。其中,局地闭合方案UW方案模拟的结果最强,局地闭合方案BouLac次之,而局地闭合方案MYJ和三种非局地闭合方案YSU、ACM2和SH的模拟强度都较弱。这些方案中,BouLac模拟的海平面最低气压与实况最为接近。通过对比这些边界层方案的模拟结果发现,由于台风强度的差异受到热力和动力的共同影响,边界层方案如模拟得到的地表潜热通量和边界层中湍流扩散系数较大,将导致较大的径向风和低层辐合,从而模拟得到较强的台风强度;反之,则台风强度较弱。     

一次台风暴雨过程的数值模拟和中尺度分析

利用改进的有限区域数值预报模式（AREM）,对“艾利”台风在福建省登陆所造成的特大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟;采用空间带通滤波技术,对模拟结果进行尺度分离,揭示出对此次暴雨天气过程有直接影响的中尺度系统,即中尺度低压和中尺度辐合线;对这些中尺度系统的物理量场特征和它们与强降水的关系进行了分析研究。结果表明：强降水与中尺度系统的散度场有较好的对应关系,中尺度系统与地形相互作用形成很强的辐合抬升作用是造成中尺度暴雨的直接原因。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS OF A TORRENTIAL RAIN CAUSED BY TYPHOON

A heavy storm rainfall caused by Typhoon Acre (No.0418) when landing at Fujian has been successfully simulated by using AREM model. The simulation result is scale-separated by spatial band-pass filtering, which reveals the mesoscale low pressure and convergence line that has direct impact on this rainfall process. The physical characteristics of the two mesoscale systems and their relation with rainfall are also analyzed. Study shows that there exists a well corresponding relationship between the storm rainfall and mesoscale divergence and strong updraft arising from the convergence, which is caused by the interactions between the mesoscate systems and topographic features, and is directly responsible for the rainfall.     

EFFECTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION ON THE MONTHLY MEAN SIMULATION*

Treatments of the boundary layer in a five-layer primitive equation model with mixed P-σ coordinates are improved by incorporating similarity theory,which is widely used at present.Two kinds of parameterization schemes of the boundary layer are designed,and static test and numerical simulation are performed.It is found that the iterative scheme can fairly improve the simulation of the mean climate field in July.The abnormally strong heat low over the Tibetan Plateau is weakened to some extent.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF VEGETATION COVER FACTOR ON BOUNDARY LAYER CLIMATE IN SEMI-ARID REGION

A numerical model has been developed for simulating land-surface processes and atmosphericboundary layer climate of vegetation and desert in semi-arid region.Dynamically,thermal andhydrological processes take place in the atmospheric boundary layer.Vegetation and surface layerof soil are included in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere coupled system,in which,vegetation isconsidered as a horizontally uniform layer,soil is divided into 13 layers and the horizontaldifferences of variables in the system are neglected.The influence of local boundary layer climateby vegetation cover factor is simulated with the coupled model in the semi-arid region of NorthwestChina (around 38°N,105°E).Results indicate that due to significant differences of water andenergy budgets in vegetation and desert region,the air is colder and wetter over the vegetation andcorrespondingly an obvious local circulation in the lower atmosphere is formed.Simulating results also show that maximum updraft and downdraft occur around thevegetation-desert marginal area,where the dynamical and thermodynamical properties of PBL(Planetary Boundary Layer) are uncontinuous.It is stronger at daytime,weaker and reverse atnighttime.In the simulation,the moisture inversion phenomena are analyzed.Finally.theinfluences of vegetation cover factor exchange on local boundary layer climate are simulated.Thesimulating results bring to light that water may be conserved and improved by developing treeplanting and afforestation,and improving cover factor of vegetation in local ecoenvironment,andthis is an important way of transforming local climate in arid and semi-arid area.Results indicatethat the coupled model can be used to study the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction and localboundary layer climate.