北京城近郊区火险气象等级预报方法

根据北京城近郊1986－1995年逐日气象资料，分季对各气象要素与接警次数作曲线拟合和相关分析。在对单个气象要素分析的基础上，根据权重系数，建立了各季城市火险气象等级的短期、中期预报方程。经回代和试报检验表明，该预报方法有较高的预报精度。     

地市级专业气象预报服务系统

利用9210传输的气象资料,通过计算预报因子和预报对象间的相关系数,挑选预报因子,建立多因子权重回归方程,用于气象要素、森林火险气象等级、城镇火险气象等级、空气环境质量等级预报。此外,根据调查指标和实践经验,建立了医疗气象、储运气象、商业气象预报判据。     

西安城市火险天气等级预报方法研究

应用西安市区1986年5月-1996年4月共10a的火灾资料和相应的气象资料，分析城市火灾与气象要素间的关系，得出西安市火灾的发生与相对湿度、日降水量、降水日数成反相关，与日最高气温、大风成正相关，在此基础上，计算了火险天气指数及火源订正指数，建立了西安城市火险天气等级预报模式，做出火险等级预报。     

基于林区智能网格的精细化森林火险气象预报模型及应用

基于智能网格气象产品、全国森林植被分布数据,选取动态气象因子和静态植被因子,建立了精细化森林火险气象预报模型并开展业务应用。利用火灾个例以及重点防火期内森林火灾实际过程,对模型预报效果进行评估,结果表明:①火险预报模型通过加入静态植被因子,考虑了不同类型的可燃物特征,基于GIS研发了精准到林区网格的精细化森林火险气象等级客观预报产品;②我国西南、华南、东北、华北等林火高发地区的重点防火期期间,降水晴雨准确率较高,采用的智能网格气象预报产品为模型提供了可靠、精细的动态气象背景场;③模型对火险气象条件模拟效果较好,对森林火灾的发生具有较好的指示意义;④模型实现了基于植被的森林火险气象等级网格化预报,产品空间分辨率5 km,预报时效为10 d,在国家级森林火险气象等级短、中期无缝隙精细化预报以及火场保障服务中取得了良好的应用效果。     

云南省森林火险气象等级区划研究

以云南省为研究区,采用防火期内插值到每个格点的月平均降水量、月平均气温、月平均风速、月平均蒸发量、月平均相对湿度5个气象因子,以及栅格化的云南省树种和土地利用分布作为火险区划因子,通过将其标准化并赋予各因子不同的权重,利用ARCGIS的分析计算功能,对云南省防火期内进行森林火险气象等级划分,并以历史林火统计结果作为验证。从区划结果来看,12月至次年5月森林火险气象等级的发展趋势符合云南的实际情况。通过对照历史林火统计结果,该结果能反映云南省大部地区在防火期不同月份的森林火险气象等级分布规律     

试用三维地形模式计算茂密林区火险等级

本文用考虑森林植被的三维地形模式，对1972年4月15日神逐架林区森林火灾发生期间的风场、温度场和相对湿度场等进行了模拟，并在此基础上计算森林火险等级。结果表明，采用数值模拟方法可以得到无测站地区的气象要素，为进行森林火险等级预报奠定了基础。     

地面人工增雨作业对祁连山森林火险气象等级的影响

根据森林火险气象等级的计算方法,基于2011—2020年祁连山区林区森林火险气象等级资料,筛选地面人工增雨作业后森林火险气象等级下降到零级火险解除的典型过程,分析地面人工增雨作业对祁连山森林火险气象等级的影响。结果表明：祁连山区各林区森林火险气象等级为四级及以上的主要时段集中在4—6月、9—11月,具有明显的季节分布特征;2011—2020年在祁连山西、中和东段区域共实施471次人工增雨作业,223%的作业后森林火险气象等级没有降低,461%的作业后森林火险气象等级有下降但没有降到零级,316%的作业后森林火险气象等级降到零级,共149次,其中有671%为三级以上森林火险气象等级;在自然降水和人工增雨作业的共同影响下,祁连山森林火险气象等级显著降低,以祁连山东段林区森林火险等级的降低效果最显著。     

黑龙江省短期森林火险气象等级预报系统

利用林火资料和气象资料,通过建立概率模型模拟单因子对森林火险气象等级的单因子贡献度，然后通过四级判別得出综合模型，再根据不同季节植被因子对天气火险等级进行订正，最终得出森林火险气象等级。用此模型，对1981—2000年逐曰74个站进行了森林火险气象等级计算，形成文本文件和库文件；对每日的实时资料进行火险气象等级计算；根据T213数值预报产品，计算未来24小时的火险气象等级。全省31个站的火险等级在省台服务器上以MICAPS第三类数据格式存放或通过“黑龙江省短期森林火险气象等级顿报系统”调看。     

-种等压面上流场的可视化方法

结合等压面上高度场及其气象要素矢量场数据的空间分布特征,设计了-种能客观反映大气在等压面上的运动规律的可视化方法表面场线映射,它在气象上有较好的实用价值     

一种等压面上流场的可视化方法

结合等压面上高度场及其气象要素矢量场数据的空间分布特征，设计了一种能客观反映大气在等压面上的运行规律的可视化方法－表面场线映射，它在气象上有较好的实用价值。     

梧州市森林火险气象预报

使用１９８０－１９９１年森林火灾及相应的气象资料，分析了森林火灾与有关气象要素的相关性。在此基础上，计算了森林火险天气预报指标，建立了预报模式，开展了森林火险天气等级预报。经试用效果较好。     

Management alternatives to offset climate change effects on Mediterranean fire regimes in NE Spain

Fire regime is affected by climate and human settlements. In the Mediterranean, the predicted climate change is likely to exacerbate fire prone weather conditions, but the mid- to long-term impact of climate change on fire regime is not easily predictable. A negative feedback via fuel reduction, for instance, might cause a non-linear response of burned area to fire weather. Also, the number of fires escaping initial control could grow dramatically if the fire meteorology is just slightly more severe than what fire brigades are prepared for. Humans can directly influence fire regimes through ignition frequency, fire suppression and land use management. Here we use the fire regime model FIRE LADY to assess the impacts of climate change and local management options on number of fires, burned area, fraction of area burned in large fires and forest area during the twenty-first century in three regions of NE Spain. Our results show that currently fuel-humidity limited regions could suffer a drastic shift of fire regime with an up to 8 fold increase of annual burned area, due to a combination of fuel accumulation and severe fire weather, which would result in a period of unusually large fires. The impact of climate change on fire regime is predicted to be less pronounced in drier areas, with a gradual increase of burned area. Local fire prevention strategies could reduce but not totally offset climate induced changes in fire regimes. According to our model, a combination of restoring the traditional rural mosaic and classical fire prevention would be the most effective strategy, as a lower ignition frequency reduces the number of fires and the creation of agricultural fields in marginal areas reduces their extent.     

武汉市火险天气等级标准初探

通过对武汉市1980～1991年逐日火灾与气象资料的相关分析,发现火灾率与相对湿度呈负相关,与气温日较差、连旱天数、最大风速呈正相关,与当天降雨量不相关。通过权重系数法分季建立火灾率多因子综合预报方程,并制订合理的火险天气等级划分标准。经回代和试报检验表明,3级以上中、高火险日数少,但对火灾概括率高。     

数值与统计方法在广东核事故应急系统中的应用

根据研究区域（310km×220km）三年的气象资料,将每天的天气按季节、天气状况和风向与风速及其日变化等因子划归为具有代表性的不同天气类型,然后用中尺度气象模式模拟这些天气类型的风温场,使得模拟的风温场能反映下垫面动力和热力不均匀性的影响,并以此统计出研究区域内关心点的天气状况、风向和风速与天气类型之间的相关关系和相关判据。在已知关心点的季节、天气状况、风向和风速后,依据这种相关关系,找出相应天气类型的风温场,并用以预报核泄漏物的污染路径、强度和范围。     

利用MM5模式及NCEP资料对沈阳一次污染天气的数值模拟

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中尺度天气模式MM5对2010年1月14—19日沈阳大气污染天气系统进行模拟分析。对此次天气过程的地面和高空气压场、地面至高空各高度层随时间变化的水平风场及垂直剖面风场、垂直方向温度廓线等气象要素进行分析和模拟,描述大气污染中天气系统的变化过程,分析造成大气污染的气象要素变化。结果表明：此次污染天气过程对应地面场为长白山高压、地形槽环流型;500 hPa高空天气形势为两槽一脊,地面风场主要受高压辐散气流控制;地面至高空不同高度的水平风场均有偏南风切变和偏西风切变,垂直剖面风场对应有下沉气流,地面至高空的温度廓线出现明显的逆温。这些气象条件共同造成了持续污染天气。而500 hPa位势高度场持续长时间两槽一脊的环流形势,是造成长时间污染天气的主要原因。     

林火引起空气运动的数值模拟

研究林火行为同空气运动的相互作用对扑灭林火十分重要。文章建立了强温度扰动下空气运动的二维非线性准弹性模式，模拟了林火在静稳大气、环境风垂直切变和地面风促进延烧等三种条件下引起的空气运动场、温度场的结构和演变过程，得到了合理的结果。文章还分析比较了这三种条件下空气运动和热量输送的差异以及地面回流风的特点。     

林火多因子综合分析及预报方法

通过对１９８７年１月￣１９９０年４月期间发生在湖北省的森林火灾过程进行分析，建立了一套较客观的火险天气环流形势预报指标，经过３年多的应用，预报效果良好。另外，还利用地面气象要素分析研究出通过计算燃料中水分的得失，从而得到预报火险等级的方法。经过１９９５年１１月－１９９６年１月的检验，结果表明：这一预报方法具有一定的预报技巧，在林火天气预报中能起很好的参考作用。     

镇江市火险天气指数预报服务系统

利用镇江市７年中１４４３次火灾和气象资料,分析火灾与气象因子的关系,定量发火险天气指数;运用Ｔ１０６格点场资料,建立预报火险天气指数的逐步回归方程,编制了具有一定特色的镇江市火险天气指数预报服务系统,两个月的实际应用表明,其准确率达８３．６％。     

Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest

Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in central-eastern Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO₂ (1975–1985), 2 × CO₂ (2040–2049) and 3 × CO₂ (2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by vegetation and fire management.     

Tropical synoptic-scale wave disturbances over the western Pacific simulated by a global cloud-system resolving model

Lower-tropospheric tropical synoptic-scale disturbances (TSDs) are associated with severe weather systems in the Asian Monsoon region. Therefore, exact prediction of the development and behavior of TSDs using atmospheric general circulation models is expected to improve weather forecasting for this region. Recent state-of-the art global cloud-system resolving modeling approaches using a Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) may improve representation of TSDs. This study evaluates TSDs over the western Pacific in output from an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-like control experiment using NICAM. Data analysis compared the simulated and observed fields. NICAM successfully simulates the average activity, three-dimensional structures, and characteristics of the TSDs during the Northern summer. The variance statistics and spectral analysis showed that the average activity of the simulated TSDs over the western Pacific during Northern summer broadly captures that of observations. The composite analysis revealed that the structures of the simulated TSDs resemble the observed TSDs to a large degree. The simulated TSDs exhibited a typical southeast- to northwest-oriented wave-train pattern that propagates northwestward from near the equator around 150 ^° E toward the southern coast of China. However, the location of the simulated wave train and wave activity center was displaced northward by approximately a few degrees of latitude from that in the observation. This displacement can be attributed to the structure and strength of the background basic flow in the simulated fields. Better representation of the background basic states is required for more successful simulation of TSDs.