基于贝叶斯状态空间产量模型的大西洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估

黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)是全球远洋渔业的重要目标鱼种,要实现有效的管理,对其进行科学的资源评估是必不可少的.本文以大西洋黄鳍金枪鱼为研究对象,根据国际大西洋金枪鱼养护委员会的渔获量和单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据,使用贝叶斯状态空间模型进行资源评估,并探讨不同剩余产量函数和单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据对评...     

Stock assessment for Atlantic yellowfin tuna based on extended surplus production model considering life history

The modern fishery stock assessment could be conducted by various models, such as Stock Synthesis model with high data requirement and complicated model structure, and the basic surplus production model, which fails to incorporate individual growth, maturity, and fishery selectivity, etc. In this study, the Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment (JABBA) Select which is relatively balanced between complex and simple models, was used to conduct stock assessment for yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the Atlantic Ocean. Its population dynamics was evaluated, considering the influence of selectivity patterns and different catch per unit effort (CPUE) indices on the stock assessment results. The model with three joint longline standardized CPUE indices and logistic selectivity pattern performed well, without significant retrospective pattern. The results indicated that the stock is not overfished and not subject to overfishing in 2018. Sensitivity analyses indicated that stock assessment results are robust to natural mortality but sensitive to steepness of the stock-recruitment relationship and fishing selectivity. High steepness was revealed to be more appropriate for this stock, while the fishing selectivity has greater influence to the assessment results than life history parameters. Overall, JABBA-Select is suitable for the stock assessment of Atlantic yellowfin tuna with different selectivity patterns, and the assumptions of natural mortality and selectivity pattern should be improved to reduce uncertainties.     

Marine protected areas in a welfare-based perspective

Assuming a broad set of fisheries management goals, this paper analyzes the implementation of a marine protected area (MPA) together with open access outside, applying a bioeconomic model that ensures unchanged growth post-MPA. Taking into account that conservation and restoration, food security, employment and social surplus are amongst the objectives that many managers include in fisheries management, it is found that this broader welfare economic approach to MPAs may well recommend them to a greater degree than espoused in the more common resource rent focused studies carried out to date. It is shown that for overfished stocks, an MPA may yield resource protection, maximize harvests and increase consumer and producer surplus, as well as give higher employment. This, however, is less apparent for moderately overfished as well as highly migratory stocks. Resource protection and enhancement implicitly improves ecosystem services.     

Evaluation and legal assessment of certified seafood

This study presents a legal review of international treaties to derive sound definitions of overfishing. It examines seafood stocks that were certified by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) or Friend of the Sea (FOS). Stock size and fishing pressure were compared with the internationally agreed reference points which both organizations have accepted. No suitable status information was found for 11% (MSC) to 53% (FOS) of the certified stocks. For the stocks with available status information, 19% (FOS) to 31% (MSC) had overfished stock sizes and were subject to ongoing overfishing. An analysis of legal implications of certification of overfished stocks suggests that a certifying body cannot be held liable for a violation of internationally agreed standards unless the domestic law of its home country so regulates. States may ban the import of fish products from overfished stocks, but only in very specific cases. Possible causes for the certification of overfished stocks are discussed and recommendations are given on how the certifiers could improve their performance. The study concludes that it is still reasonable to buy certified seafood, because the percentage of moderately exploited, healthy stocks is 3–4 times higher in certified than in non-certified seafood.     

Contrast in life histories of exploited fishes and ecosystem structures in coastal waters off west Canada and east Korea

By reviewing the history of fishery exploitation in the coastal waters of west Canada and east Korea, related with contrasting life history strategies of the dominant species, the fishery management challenges that each country would face in the upcoming decades were outlined. In the ecosystem of the Canadian western coastal waters, the dominant oceanographic feature is the coastal upwelling domain off the west coast of Vancouver Island, the northernmost extent of the California Current System in the eastern North Pacific. In the marine ecosystem of the eastern coasts of Korea (the Japan/East Sea), a major oceanographic feature is the Tsushima Warm Current, a branch of the Kuroshio Current in the western North Pacific. Fishes in the Canadian ecosystem are dominated by demersal, long-lived species such as flatfish, rockfish, sablefish, and halibut. During summer, migratory pelagic species such as Pacific hake, Pacific salmon, and recently Pacific sardine, move into this area to feed. In the late 1970s, Canada declared jurisdiction for 200 miles from their coastline, and major fisheries species in Canadian waters have been managed with a quota system. The overall fishing intensity off the west coast of Vancouver Island has been relatively moderate compared to Korean waters. Fishes in the ecosystem of the eastern Korean waters are dominated by short-lived pelagic and demersal fish. Historically, Korea has shared marine resources in this area with neighbouring countries, but stock assessments and quotas have only recently (since the late-1990s) been implemented for some major species. In the Korean ecosystem, fisheries can be described as intensive, and many stocks have been rated as overfished. The two ecosystems responded differently to climate impacts such as regime shifts under different exploitation histories. In the future, both countries will face the challenge of global warming and subsequent impacts on ecosystems, necessitating developing adaptive fisheries management plans. The challenges will be contrasting for the two countries: Canada will need to conserve fish populations, while Korea will need to focus on rebuilding depleted fish populations.     

利用后向预报方法分析印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估模型

当前,对渔业资源评估模型的诊断与选择,主要依赖于模型对观察数据的拟合度,很少评价模型的预测能力、并将其作为评价渔业资源评估与管理质量的依据。为此,本文利用后向预报方法评价了印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacores)资源评估模型的预测能力,并在此基础上分析了印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的资源评估与管理质量。研究表明,在利用贝叶斯剩余产量模型对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼进行资源评估时,存在如下问题:(1)拟合较好的模型其预测能力较差;(2)利用不同时段数据拟合模型时,采用DIC(Deviance Information Criterion)选择的最佳模型缺少稳定性;(3)不同模型估计的TAC (Total Allowable Catch)存在较大差异。据此可以判断,利用贝叶斯剩余产量模型对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼进行资源评估与管理效果较差。本研究结果表明:(1)利用后向预报方法可评价模型的预测能力、DIC选择模型的稳定性,从而能在一定程度上判断模型模拟的种群演化动态是否正确、资源评估结果是否存在问题;(2)利用后向预报方法可揭示评估结果的不确定性及其可能引起的渔业管理风险,从而有利于避免渔业管理风险、实现渔业管理目标。     

Fishers' responses to management measures and their socio-economic effects

This session presented a wide range of papers on cooperativeresearch, design of alternative gears and fishing strategies,and new analyses to support management. The contributed papersreflected a real desire to explore different approaches andstrategies to fishery management. It is apparent that fishery policy has had a mixed record ofsuccess and failure at best. In most regions of the world, manystocks are still being overfished or have been severely overfishedin the past. Although rebuilding programmes for overfished stockshave been developed, nationally as well as internationally,only a few have been successful, many others are works in progressand, in too many cases, rebuilding     

中国沿海小黄鱼种群动力学及其空间异质性研究

小黄鱼是我国近海四种最重要的经济鱼类之一,在过去的几十年中小黄鱼种群及其两个地理亚种群经历了巨大的变化。小黄鱼的种群动力学研究,对于维持这一重要渔业的可持续管理是至关重要的。目前仅有的两个小黄鱼种群动力学模型只涵盖了较短的时间,且没有关注其空间差异。本文研究了1968年至2015年间黄渤海和东海小黄鱼的种群动力学模型,包含和不包含空间分层结构的两种贝叶斯模型被用于分析其种群动力学的大尺度空间异质性。本文分析了不同的假设,来研究小黄鱼种群动力学潜在的变化趋势。研究结果表明小黄鱼种群动力学特征具有明显的时间和空间变化。种群的增长速度从20世纪八十年代开始增加,而可捕系数从1981年到2015年增加了两倍多。与黄渤海亚种群相比,东海的小黄鱼亚种群生长速度更快,遭受的捕捞压力也更大。基于最大可持续产量MSY的参考点表明,无论是整个小黄鱼种群还是两个亚种群,近年来都有非常高的过度捕捞风险。因此我国小黄鱼的渔业管理急需更加保守的管理策略,同时考虑其地域差异。本文所用的方法可以应用于其他种类的资源评估和渔业管理,尤其是具有空间异质性和数据有限的种类。     

Assessment and management of the trochus fishery at West Nggela, Solomon Islands: An interdisciplinary approach

A proper understanding of the management status of small-scale subsistence and artisanal fisheries requires not only detailed sociocultural study, but comprehensive analysis of the state of the fished population(s), using rigorous stock assessment and other fisheries biology tools. In this article I describe several approaches taken to assess the artisanal trochus fishery at West Nggela. This includes stock density and other data, that demonstrate many reefs are overfished. I discuss the social and economic factors influencing the performance of the fishery. The importance of an understanding of property tenure is dealt with in some detail. An analysis of the various categories of fishers’ ecological knowledge about trochus is also presented, and discussed with respect to the categories of biological and ecological information considered by most fisheries biologists as essential to the assessment and management of a fishery.     

Genetic variation and population structure in the New Zealand snapper

Fifteen proteins encoded by 23 gene loci were electrophoretically surveyed in two samples of snapper Chrysophrys auratus (Forster) from Wellington Harbour and the Hauraki Gulf. Between 17% and 26% of the loci examined were found to be polymorphic and the proportion of heterozygous loci per individual was 7.9% to 8.4%. Using Rogers’ genetic distance coefficient an overall similarity of 0.98 was calculated between the two samples.

Three polymorphic loci Est‐4, Gpi‐1, and Idh were examined in an additional 10 samples from around New Zealand. Two genetically distinct stocks were apparent: one along the west coast, the other along the east coast of the North Island. There was an indication of stock mixing at Ninety Mile Beach and in the Bay of Plenty and East Cape. The distribution of alleles at the Est‐4 locus revealed a third stock in Hawke Bay that is genetically more similar to the west coast than the east coast stock. Hydrological conditions in Hawke Bay are more similar to those of the west coast than to those of the north east coast of the North Island. Thus it is possible that Est‐4 alleles are selectively maintained in response to an environmental factor.     

Is a stock overfished if it is depleted by overfishing? A response to the rebuttal of Agnew et al. to Froese and Proelss “Evaluation and legal assessment of certified seafood”

This contribution is a response to the rebuttal of Agnew et al. (2012) to Froese and Proelss (2012) “Evaluation and legal assessment of certified seafood”. It corrects some factually wrong statements in the rebuttal, revisits the definitions of ‘depleted’ and ‘overfished’, and notes that the rebuttal agrees with the international definition of ‘overfishing’ (F>FMSY) that was used by Froese and Proelss (2012). The rebuttal presents an analysis of 45 MSC-certified stocks. Of these, 27% are ‘depleted’ (according to the definition used by MSC) or ‘overfished’ (according to the definition used by Froese and Proelss 2012) and 16% are subject to ‘overfishing’, basically confirming the critique of Froese and Proelss (2012). This response concludes that MSC has to change its rules for certification such that (1) overfishing is not allowed and (2) ‘depleted’ stocks are marked as such.     

基于增殖放流的定栖性种类剩余产量模型及其模拟分析

为应对渔业资源的日益衰退,增殖放流成为了目前补充资源、维持资源可持续利用的主要手段之一。增殖放流实施后,渔业资源的可持续特征是学者们普遍关心,却又无法使用传统剩余产量模型有效解决的问题。本研究基于传统的Schaefer剩余产量模型,提出了一个适用于增殖放流情况下的剩余产量模型(增殖剩余产量模型),模拟分析了不同增殖放流和捕捞策略对模型的影响。该模型的形式与Schaefer剩余产量模型相似,但加入了描述增殖群体增长特征的参数—有效增殖率,以此来表示增殖放流的群体对产量产生的影响。结果显示,合理的增殖放流可以起到增加最大可持续产量的效果,使用增殖剩余产量模型能够得到合理的最大可持续产量等关键指标的估算结果。与无增殖放流情况相比,在增殖放流影响下,海域原存资源(海域原本存在的群体)达到最大可持续产量时所需的生物量较小,而可承受的捕捞努力量则有所增加。增殖剩余产量模型所反映的原存群体和增殖群体之间会产生抑制作用。在该作用影响下,不同增殖放流和捕捞策略会对模型的评估结果产生影响。与传统模型相比,该模型将增殖放流纳入最大可持续产量的评估过程,提高了增殖放流影响下最大可持续产量评估的准确性,可用于诸如海洋牧场等边界较清晰的海域内增殖定栖性种类最大可持续产量的估算。     

Data-moderate assessments of Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus and west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis in Namibian waters

There is global interest in providing scientific advice on optimal harvesting of all commercially exploited fish stocks. Nevertheless, many commercially important stocks lack analytical assessments. Therefore, we evaluate a data-moderate stock assessment method: the stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT). The method was applied to two Namibian stocks: (i) the data-rich Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus, where results are compared to a new data-rich assessment using a state–space assessment model (SAM); and (ii) the data-moderate west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis, which is an important bycatch species in the Cape monkfish fishery, but currently unassessed. The information available to the data-moderate assessment is total commercial catch, commercial catch per unit effort (CPUE), and survey CPUE. SPiCT and SAM gave largely consistent estimates of relative fishing mortality (F/F_MSY) and relative exploitable biomass (B/B_MSY) for the Cape monkfish stock, although with some discrepancies. Differences in the biomass estimates between the two assessments suggest that further investigation is required to understand the cause, and that some caution is necessary when considering the biomass of the stock. SPiCT shows that the west coast sole may be overexploited, although the confidence bounds were too wide for a firm conclusion. Similarity in the estimates of F/F_MSY for Cape monkfish in recent years, using SPiCT relative to SAM, likewise indicates the suitability of SPiCT for managing west coast sole.     

Global fisheries losses at the exclusive economic zone level, 1950 to present

Up to one-third of commercial fishery stocks may be overfished at present. By analyzing catch trends and applying an empirical relationship derived from stock assessments, this article tracks the geographic spread of overfishing at the country level in terms of lost catch and lost revenue, from the start of industrialized fishing in 1950-2004. The results tell a cautionary tale of serial depletion to meet the ever-rising demand for fish. Examining country losses with respect to fishery management reveals that overcapacity and excess fishing effort are widespread, but also that recent trends towards sustainability can stabilize or reverse losses (e.g. for Norway, Iceland, the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand). Global trade effectively masks the successive depletion of stocks, so that without decisive action to reduce fishing effort, many more stocks will suffer and undernourishment impacts for the major exporting, food-deficit nations will only magnify.     

Comparing management of recreational Pagrus fisheries in Shark Bay (Australia) and Sagami Bay (Japan): Conventional catch controls versus stock enhancement

This paper compares the management of recreational fisheries for pink snapper (Pagrus auratus) in the inner gulfs of Shark Bay (Australia) and the closely related red sea bream (Pagrus major) in Sagami Bay (Japan). Fishing and other factors have resulted in population declines of these species in both regions. In response, fishery managers have employed contrasting management, more conventional catch controls in Shark Bay and stock enhancement in Sagami Bay. Although recreational harvest levels were higher than commercial levels in both fisheries, the driving mechanisms are comparatively different due to historical, social, economic and political issues in the respective locations.     

The irony and the exclusivity of Atlantic bluefin tuna management

The eastern stock of Atlantic bluefin tuna (thunnus thynnus) was recently nominated for protection under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Flora and Fauna (CITES). That nomination failed, which leaves management of the heavily overfished stock in the hands of the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT). This paper reviews the history of ICCAT management of Atlantic bluefin tuna to show that (1) early elimination of competitive forces prevented agreement on management in keeping with scientific advice, resulting in the steep decline of the stock, (2) even just the threat of a CITES listing can provide temporary impetus for marked improvement in ICCAT management, and (3) long-term sustainable management by ICCAT will require continued economic and political pressure.     

Managing overcapacity in small-scale fisheries in Southeast Asia

It is now almost universally accepted that most of the nearshore fisheries in Southeast Asia are overfished. It is also accepted that overcapacity is one of the leading causes of this overfishing. The problem of addressing overcapacity in small-scale fisheries in Southeast Asia is much more complex than that of reducing overcapacity in industrial fleets. In order to manage capacity, managers need to measure and understand how much capacity currently exists in the fishery and what is the desirable level of capacity that best meets the set of management objectives. The only feasible solution to overcapacity may be based on a coordinated and integrated approach involving a mixed strategy of resource management, resource restoration and conservation, livelihoods and economic and community development, and restructured governance arrangements. The reduction of overcapacity implies an increased focus on people-related solutions and on communities.     

自然死亡和亲体补充关系对黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估的影响

黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)是全球经济和生态价值最重要的鱼类之一,其资源养护和管理受到各方的高度关注。本文依据年龄结构产量模型研究了印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的资源状态,着重探讨了其生活史特征的不确定性对资源评估结果的影响。研究结果显示,1960-1985年间印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源量保持相对稳定,之后开始逐渐下降,相应的捕捞死亡系数也在2010年之后迅速增加,目前其种群可能存在过度捕捞(F₂₀₂₀/F_MSY>1,SSB₂₀₂₀/SSB_MSY<1)。印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的资源评估结果对自然死亡系数(M)和亲体-补充量关系陡度参数(h)的改变较为敏感。当h增大时,SSB_MSY和初始SSB(即SSB₀)的变化较大,分别减少了约25.53万t和34.04万t;F₂₀₂₀/F_MSY减小了1.15。当M增大时,F₂₀₂₀/F_MSY、SSB_MSY...     

利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼

西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼,Illex argentinus,巴塔哥尼亚南部群体是重要的经济种类。海洋环境因子在柔鱼资源分布中起着重要的作用。本研究利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估2000-2010年的滑柔鱼的资源量。假设海洋环境因子（滑柔鱼产卵场最适宜海表温度占比）影响动态产量模型的参数K,DIC值表明在正态分布和均匀分布下均是基于环境因子的评估模型优于基本的动态产量模型。阿根廷滑柔鱼的最大可持续产量（MSY）在351600吨到685 100吨之间,资源生物量在1322400吨到1 803 000吨之间,其捕捞死亡系数均小于F_0.1和F_MSY,资源处在良好状态,没有遭受过度捕捞。本研究为应用环境因子在柔鱼类的资源评估与管理提中供了科学的参考方法。     

Current and future trends in fisheries stock assessment and management

There are currently three dominant approaches to fisheries stock assessment: analysis of catch-at-age data; simple models of biomass dynamics (often called surplus production models) that rely only on catch and some index of abundance; and analysis of length frequency data. A key characteristic of all these methods is that they rely primarily on one type of data and ignore most of what is known about the biology of the species in question and what has been learned from fisheries elsewhere. Other information is sometimes included subjectively after the stock assessment is complete. The first major trend in assessment methods is developing ways of incorporating all that is known about the biology of a species into a single unified assessment procedure. The second major development is in methods of incorporating uncertainty in stock assessment, using statistical decision theory. At present few agencies have formal methods for treating the uncertainty inherent in stock assessment, and therefore uncertainty is often ignored. A number of trends in fisheries management are reviewed, including adoption of formal harvest strategies, recognition that fisheries management is a matter of decision-making and risk-taking, and the use of Monte-Carlo evaluation of fisheries management options. Future trends in stock assessment and management will likely include more attention to the behaviour of fishermen in response to regulations, more involvement of user-groups in decision-making, much more allocation of property rights, including complete privatization of some fisheries, and demand for evaluation of cost effectiveness of research and management activities. Threats to commercial fisheries as now known are discussed, including growing allocation to recreational and aboriginal users, environmentalists and the impact of aquaculture.