第23太阳活动周期太阳风参数及地磁指数的统计分析

日冕物质抛射(Coronal Mass Ejection,简称CME)和共转相互作用区(Corotating Interaction Region,简称CIR)是造成日地空间行星际扰动和地磁扰动的两个主要原因,提供了地球磁暴的主要驱动力,进而显著影响地球空间环境.为深入研究太阳风活动及受其主导影响的地磁活动的时间分布特征,本文对大量太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的数据进行了详细分析.首先,采用由NASA OMNIWeb提供的太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的公开数据,通过自主编写matlab程序对第23太阳活动周期(1996-01-01—2008-12-31)的数据包括行星际磁场Bz分量、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压等重要太阳风参数及Dst指数、AE指数、Kp指数等主要的地磁指数进行统计分析,建立了包括269个CME事件和456个CIR事件列表的数据库.采用事例分析法和时间序列叠加法分别对两类太阳活动的四个重要太阳风参数(IMF Bz、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压)和三个主要地磁指数(Dst、AE、Kp)进行统计分析,并研究了其统计特征.其次,根据Dst指数最小值确定了第23太阳活动周期内的355个孤立地磁暴事件,并以Dst指数最小值为标准将这些磁暴进一步分类为145个弱磁暴、123个中等磁暴、70个强磁暴、12个剧烈磁暴和5个巨大磁暴.最后,采用时间序列叠加法对不同强度磁暴的太阳风参数和地磁指数进行统计分析.统计分析表明,对于CME事件,Nsw/Pdyn(Nsw表示太阳风质子密度,Pdyn表示太阳风动压)线性拟合斜率一般为正;对于CIR事件,Nsw/Pdyn线性拟合斜率一般为负,这可作为辨别CME和CIR事件的一种有效方法.从平均意义上讲,相较于CIR事件,CME事件有更大的南向IMF Bz分量、太阳风动压Pdyn、AE指数、Kp指数以及更小的Dstmin.一般情况下,CME事件有更大的可能性驱动极强地磁暴.总体而言,对于不同强度的地磁暴,Dst指数的变化呈现出一定的相似性,但随着地磁暴强度的增强,Dst指数衰减的速度变快.CME和CIR事件以及其各自驱动的地磁暴事件有着很多不同,因此,需要将CME事件驱动的磁暴及CIR事件驱动的磁暴分开研究.建立CME、CIR事件及地磁暴的数据库以及获取的统计分析结果,将为深入研究地球磁层等离子体片、辐射带及环电流对太阳活动的响应特征提供有利的帮助.     

中低纬地区电离层对CIR和CME响应的统计分析

本文利用中低纬日本地区(131°E,35°N)GPS-TEC格点化数据,分析了2001—2009年间109个共转相互作用区(CIR)事件、45个日冕物质抛射(CME)事件引起的地磁扰动期间电离层的响应.结果表明,电离层暴的类型随太阳活动的变化而有不同的变化,CIR事件引发的电离层正相暴、正负双相暴多发生在太阳活动下降年,负相暴多发生在高年,负正双相暴多发生在低年;CME事件引发的电离层正相暴和负相暴多发生在高年.CIR和CME引发的不同类型的电离层暴的季节性差异不大,在夏季多发生正负双相暴.电离层暴发生时间相对地磁暴的时延大部分在-6~6h之间,但CIR引发的电离层暴时延范围更广,在-12~24h之间,而CME引发的电离层暴时延主要在-6~6h之间.中低纬的电离层暴多发生在主相阶段,其中CIR引发的双相暴也会发生在初相阶段.电离层负暴多发生在AE最大值为800~1200nT之间.CIR引起的电离层扰动持续时间较长,一般在1~6天左右,而CME引起的电离层扰动持续时间一般在1~4天左右.     

佘山地磁台百年磁暴（二）——极大磁暴分析

本文是佘山地磁台百年磁暴的第二部分,对其极大磁暴（主相ΔH≥400 nT）进行分析.通过与其他三组由不同地磁活动指数定义的极大磁暴对比,表明佘山台用主相幅度差对极大磁暴的定义与之基本相符.同时结合几个典型磁暴,对磁暴与太阳风、行星际磁场和电离层之间的关系进行了讨论.     

Solar origin of geomagnetic storms and prediction of storms with the use of neural networks

This review deals with how the changes of the large-scale solar magnetic fields are related to the occurrence of solar phenomena, which are associated with geomagnetic storms. The review also describes how artificial neural networks have been used to forecast geomagnetic storms either from daily solar input data or from hourly solar wind data. With solar data as input predictions 1–3 days or a month in advance are possible, while using solar wind data as input predictions about an hour in advance are possible. The predictions one hour ahead of the geomagnetic storm indexD _st from only solar wind input data have reached such high accuracy, that they are of practical use in combination with real-time solar wind observations at L1. However, the predictions days and a month ahead need to be much improved in order to be of real practical use.     

Regional response of the mesosphere–lower thermosphere dynamics over Scandinavia to solar proton events and geomagnetic storms in late October 2003

The short-term regional responses of the mesosphere–lower thermosphere (MLT) dynamics over Scandinavia to the exceptionally strong solar storms with their accompanying solar proton fluxes on the Earth in late October 2003 have been investigated using radar measurements at Andenes (69°N, 16°E) and Esrange (68°N, 21°E). Several solar activity storms resulted in solar proton events (SPEs) at this time, but a particularly active period of high proton fluxes occurred between 28 and 31 October 2003. The significant temperature drop (∼25 K), detected by the meteor radar at Andenes at altitude ∼90 km, was in line with the enhancement of the proton fluxes and was caused by the dramatic reduction of the ozone in the high-latitude middle atmosphere monitored by satellite measurements. This exceptionally strong phenomenon in late October 2003 was composed of three geomagnetic storms, with the first one occurring in the daytime of 29 October and the other two storms in the nighttime of 29 and 30 October, respectively. The responses of the prevailing wind and the main tides (24- and 12-h tides) were studied in detail. It was found that the response of the MLT dynamics to the first geomagnetic storm occurring in the daytime and accompanied by solar proton fluxes is very different from those to the second and third geomagnetic storms with onsets during the nighttime. Some physical mechanisms have been suggested in order to explain the observed short-term variability of the MLT dynamics. This case study revealed the impact of the SPEs observed in late October 2003 and the timing of the geomagnetic storms on the MLT neutral wind responses observed over Scandinavia.     

Statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle (1844–1993)

A previous application of extreme-value statistics to the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for nine solar cycles is extended to fourteen solar cycles (1844–1993). The intensity of a geomagnetic storm is measured by the magnitude of the daily aa index, rather than the half-daily aa index used previously. Values of the conventional aa index (1868– 1993), supplemented by the Helsinki Ak index (1844–1880), provide an almost continuous, and largely homogeneous, daily measure of geomagnetic activity over an interval of 150 years. As in the earlier investigation, analytic expressions giving the probabilities of the three greatest storms (extreme values) per solar cycle, as continuous functions of storm magnitude (ad), are obtained by least-squares fitting of the observations to the appropriate theoretical extreme-value probability functions. These expressions are used to obtain the statistical characteristics of the extreme values; namely, the mode, median, mean, standard deviation and relative dispersion. Since the Ak index may not provide an entirely homogeneous extension of the aa index, the statistical analysis is performed separately for twelve solar cycles (1868–1993), as well as nine solar cycles (1868–1967). The results are utilized to determine the expected ranges of the extreme values as a function of the number of solar cycles. For fourteen solar cycles, the expected ranges of the daily aa index for the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle decrease monotonically in magnitude, contrary to the situation for the half-daily aa index over nine solar cycles. The observed range of the first extreme daily aa index for fourteen solar cycles is 159–352 nT and for twelve solar cycles is 215–352 nT. In a group of 100 solar cycles the expected ranges are expanded to 137–539 and 177–511 nT, which represent increases of 108% and 144% in the respective ranges. Thus there is at least a 99% probability that the daily aa index willAlso Visiting Reader in Physics, University of Sussex, Palmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK     

2007-2012年Dstmin≤-50nT的中等以上地磁暴的行星际源统计

地磁暴的行星际源研究是了解及预报地磁暴的关键因素之一.本文研究了2007-2012年间的所有Dst_min ≤-50 nT的中等以上地磁暴,建立了这些地磁暴及其行星际源的列表.在这6年中,共发生了51次Dst_min≤-50 nT的中等以上地磁暴,其中9次为Dst_min≤-100 nT的强地磁暴事件.对比上一活动周相同时间段发现,在这段太阳活动极低的时间,地磁暴的数目显著减少.对这些地磁暴行星际源的分析表明,65%的中等以上地磁暴由与日冕物质抛射相关的行星际结构引起,31%的地磁暴由共转相互作用区引起,这与以前的结果一致.特别的,在这个太阳活动极低时期内,共转相互作用区没有引起Dst_min≤-100 nT的强地磁暴,同时,日冕物质抛射相关结构也没有引起Dst_min≤-200 nT的超强地磁暴.以上结果表明极低太阳活动同时导致了共转相互作用区和日冕物质抛射地磁效应的减弱.进一步,分析不同太阳活动期间地磁暴的行星际源发现:在太阳活动低年(2007-2009年),共转相互作用区是引起地磁暴的主要原因; 而在太阳活动上升期和高年(2010-2013年),大部分(75%,30/40)的中等以上地磁暴均由日冕物质抛射相关结构引起.     

The spatial relationship between active regions and coronal holes and the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms throughout the solar activity cycle

We study the annual frequency of occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < –100 nT) throughout the solar activity cycle for the last three cycles and find that it shows different structures. In cycles 20 and 22 it peaks during the ascending phase, near sunspot maximum. During cycle 21, however, there is one peak in the ascending phase and a second, higher, peak in the descending phase separated by a minimum of storm occurrence during 1980, the sunspot maximum. We compare the solar cycle distribution of storms with the corresponding evolution of coronal mass ejections and flares. We find that, as the frequency of occurrence of coronal mass ejections seems to follow very closely the evolution of the sunspot number, it does not reproduce the storm profiles. The temporal distribution of flares varies from that of sunspots and is more in agreement with the distribution of intense geomagnetic storms, but flares show a maximum at every sunspot maximum and cannot then explain the small number of intense storms in 1980. In a previous study we demonstrated that, in most cases, the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms is associated with a flaring event in an active region located near a coronal hole. In this work we study the spatial relationship between active regions and coronal holes for solar cycles 21 and 22 and find that it also shows different temporal evolution in each cycle in accordance with the occurrence of strong geomagnetic storms; although there were many active regions during 1980, most of the time they were far from coronal holes. We analyse in detail the situation for the intense geomagnetic storms in 1980 and show that, in every case, they were associated with a flare in one of the few active regions adjacent to a coronal hole.     

佘山地磁台百年磁暴（一）——太阳周期变化

上海佘山地磁台位于中纬度地区,拥有逾百年的连续地磁场观测资料,非常有利于研究地磁活动的周期规律.本文利用该台站1908至2007年的100年磁暴记录,通过时序叠加、傅里叶分析和小波分析研究了磁暴的周期规律.结果表明：强磁暴具有显著的11年、22年和季节变化;弱中等磁暴没有明显的11年周期,并且季节变化的幅度较小.奇/偶太阳活动周相比,强磁暴的季节变化存在一定的差异,低年季节变化不明显,高年季节变化显著,并且偶数周的变化相对复杂.     

Total ozone response to major geomagnetic storms during non-winter period

Summary This paper is a continuation of the recent studies of ozone response to major geomagnetic storms, now for the non-winter period. No significant response was found under different solar cycle/QBO conditions due to a rather homogeneous distribution of ozone during this period. Nevertheless, locations of the largest ozone variability are the same as the centers of meteorological activity and closely related to the centers of quasi-persistent extremes in the geographical distribution of total ozone along latitudinal circle 50 N.     

Interplanetary structures and solar wind behaviour during major geomagnetic perturbations

We consider five different solar wind structures to study their relative geo-effectiveness in producing major geomagnetic perturbations. Geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters during major storms have been utilized to understand the physical mechanism(s) during the passage of structures with distinct structural and dynamical properties. Attempt has been made to find distinct features of the structures responsible for large-intensity and/or long-duration geomagnetic storms. We search for precursors of major storms that may be useful for space-weather predictions. Average recovery characteristics of storms and the influence of solar wind speed on the recovery have been discussed.     

Quantitative estimation of local geomagnetic activity relative to the level of the magnetically quiet period in 2009

A new method for determining geomagnetic activity based on calculation of the hourly amplitudes of geomagnetic field variations at ground-based observatories has been developed. Observations performed in 2009, when unusually low solar and geomagnetic activity was registered, were used as a reference level. The described method was used to estimate the energy of local geomagnetic activity; such energy is estimated for observatories in the Earth’s Northern and Southern hemispheres, and a total estimation is made for both hemispheres and for the entire Earth’s surface during large magnetic storms. These are used to compare characteristics of magnetic storm intensity based on the classical Kp and Dst indices and calculated energy estimate.     

Geomagnetic storm intensity forecast caused by magnetic clouds of solar wind

Method of short-term forecast intensity of geomagnetic storms, expected by effect Solar wind magnetic clouds in the Earth’s magnetosphere is developed. The method is based calculation of the magnetic field clouds distribution, suitable to the Earth, the initial satellite measurements therein components of the interplanetary magnetic field in the solar ecliptic coordinate system. Conclusion about the magnetic storm intensity is expected on the basis of analysis of the dynamics of the reduced magnetic field Bz component clouds and established communication intensity of geomagnetic storms on Dst-index values and Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field vector.     

Great geomagnetic storms in 1841–1870 according to the data from the network of Russian geomagnetic observatories

Great magnetic storms (geomagnetic index C9 is ≥8 for St. Petersburg, which can correspond to Kp ≥ 8 or Dst < ?200 nT), registered from 1841 to 1870 at the St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Barnaul, Nerchinsk, Sitka, and Beijing (at the Russian embassy) observatories are analyzed. A catalog of intensive magnetic storms during this period, which includes solar cycles 9–11, has been compiled. The statistical characteristics of great magnetic storms during this historical period have been obtained. These results indicate that high solar activity played a decisive role in the generation of very intense magnetic storms during the considered period. These storms are characterized by only one peak in a solar cycle, which was registered in the years of the cycle minimum (or slightly earlier): the number of great geomagnetic storms near the solar activity maximum was twice as large as the number of such storms during less active periods. A maximum in September–October and an additional maximum in February are observed in the annual distribution of storms. In addition, the storm intensity inversely depends on the storm duration.     

Statistics of isolated and complex geomagnetic storms based on the APEV database for cycle 23 of solar activity

The development of geomagnetic storms is mainly controlled by external heliospheric factors, which in turn depend on the conditions on the Sun. Magnetospheric disturbances can be isolated, repeated, multiple, or turbulent, depending on these conditions. Most geomagnetic storms develop complexly and are characterized by the existence of one or several side extrema before or after the main one. This is mainly related to the superposition of individual disturbances that follow immediately one after another from the Sun into the heliosphere or to the internal structure and dynamics of disturbances in the corona. The geomagnetic storms from the APEV extensive database for cycle 23 of solar activity, which were combined into 227 events, were analyzed in order to reveal the statistics based on single and multiple magnetospheric disturbances. The results are presented as histograms, graphs, tables, and empirical formulas for the total number of intensifications in all events and depending on different geomagnetic storm development phases, amplitude, and duration.     

外源S_q等效电流体系电流涡中心电流强度与太阳活动关系

本文选取了INTERMAGNET地磁台网2001年到2012年的地磁数据,对其进行世界时(UT)到地方时(LT)的转换后利用自然正交分量法(NOC)从所选资料中提取出太阳静日变化Sq成分,再通过球谐分析方法建立模型分离内、外源Sq成分,逐日反演出内、外源Sq等效电流体系,并得到外源Sq等效电流体系南北电流涡中心电流强度.本文将外源Sq等效电流体系南北电流涡中心电流强度与同一时期的Dst指数进行了对比分析,研究表明它们之间具有同步变化的规律,且北半球电流涡中心电流强度在磁暴发生时的异常现象远高于南半球.对F10.7cm太阳射电流量与外源Sq等效电流体系南、北半球电流涡中心电流强度的长短周期分析发现,Sq等效电流表现出明显的11年周期特点,与太阳活动周期一致.外源南、北半球电流涡中心电流强度和F10.7cm年均值的相关系数分别达到了0.93和0.90,说明太阳活动是导致外源Sq电流体系变化的最直接也最主要的因素,这可能与电离层电导率受控于太阳的电磁辐射相关.     

基于Weimer模型的高纬地磁扰动预测

地磁扰动是空间天气中的重要现象,对地基技术系统具有重要的影响.准确预报地磁扰动可以有效避免重大灾害发生.本文基于Weimer电势和磁势模型发展了高纬地区地磁扰动的模拟方法,并与地面台站观测数据进行了比较.地表磁场扰动主要受电离层电流系统的影响,利用Weimer模式计算出电离层等效电流分布后,基于毕奥-萨伐尔定律推导了地磁扰动三分量与电流的关系,最终计算出地磁扰动量.模型的输入参数为太阳风速度、太阳风密度、行星际磁场和磁偶极倾角.模型计算结果与不同纬度和经度的地磁台站观测结果对比表明本文的计算方法能有效地模拟地磁暴期间地磁扰动特征.本文结果对今后发展高纬地区地磁场预报模型奠定了重要基础.     

External impact on wind in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere region

Regular measurements of the velocity and direction of the horizontal wind in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) region at a height of ∼95 km have been conducted since 1975 over Eastern Siberia (Badary observatory near Irkutsk), using the spaced-diversity reception method in the LF range. The accumulated database of measurement results (for more than 20 years, from 1974 to 1996) makes it possible to get information on the impact on wind in the MLT region from both below (stratospheric warmings) and above (geomagnetic storms as a consequence of magnetospheric disturbances) with sufficient statistical reliability. Effects of stratospheric warmings and strong geomagnetic storms in the prevailing wind and amplitude of the semidiurnal tide are evaluated by the superposed epoch method. It is shown that the effects of stratospheric warmings depend on the type (intensity) of stratospheric warming and on the phase of quasi-biennial oscillations of the wind in the equatorial stratosphere at the 30 hPa level. The response of MLT winds to external impacts is different for the 21st and 22nd cycles of solar activity. Effects of geomagnetic storms (A _p > 100) are manifested in the decrease in the eastward prevailing wind and increase in the semidiurnal tide amplitude.     

Relationships between the AE, ap and Dst indices near solar minimum (1974) and at solar maximum (1979)

Three-hourly average values of the Dst, AE and ap geomagnetic activity indices have been studied for 1 years duration near the solar minimum (1974) and also at the solar maximum (1979). In 1979 seven intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < –100 nT) occurred, whereas in 1974 only three were reported. This study reveals: (1) the yearly average of AE is greater in 1974 than in 1979, whereas the inverse seems to be true for the yearly average of Dst, when a higher number of intense storms is present. These averages indicate the kind of activity occurring on the sun as shown in earlier work. (2) The seasonal variation of Dst is higher than that of ap and is almost negligible in AE. (3) The correlation coefficient of ap × AE is in general the highest, as the magnetometers that monitor both indices are close, and is surpassed only by the ap × Dst correlation during geomagnetic storms, when the influence of the ring current is dominant. The correlation of ap × Dst also shows a seasonal variability. (4) For the first time a study of correlation between ap and a linear combination of AE and Dst has also been made. We found higher correlation coefficients in this case as compared to those between ap × Dst and ap ×xs AE.     

磁层系统的能量输入、输出与日地耦合

用１９７８年和１９８２年３６个磁暴期间的太阳风、行星际磁场（ＩＭＦ）和地磁资料，分析和检验已有的两类太阳风－磁层能量耦合函数．结果表明：Ａｋａｓｏｆｕ提出的耦合函数ε能大致地预报亚暴和磁暴的发生。ε开始起重要作用时即出现亚暴；电离层能耗达到饱和值是发生磁暴的标志。ε与磁层体系能耗之间有接近于对数量的线性关系．用１９７８－１９８６年的资料，分析环电流和极光区电离层能耗在１２１个太阳自转周内的分布表明，日面上可能存在相对持久的活动区域