Correlation between clouds at different altitudes and solar activity: Fact or Artifact?

Studies of the relation between cosmic rays (CR) (solar activity) and atmospheric cloudiness are mostly based on the satellite ISCCP cloud data. However, doubts have been cast that these relations can be an artifact of instrumental effects, i.e., of the masking/obscuring low clouds by higher clouds in the satellite view. If this is the case, most of the earlier results based on ISCCP data would be devaluated. Here, we reanalyze the ISCCP cloud coverage data and its relation with the cosmic ray-induced ionization, and show that the correlation between low clouds and CR is affected by higher clouds in some geographical regions, but not everywhere. In turn, our results show that low clouds also may affect the relation of higher clouds with CR in some regions. Accordingly, correlation analysis can be performed only when the strong relation between clouds of different types is taken into account. In particular, studies based on global or latitudinal (zonally averaged) cloud data should be revised.     

The possible connection between ionization in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and low level clouds

Recent analysis of monthly mean cloud data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project uncovered a strong correlation between low cloud and the cosmic ray flux for extensive regions of the Earth. Additional data have been recently released covering the period up to September 2001 with which we have made a new study of the geographical variation of the correlation between low cloud and predicted ionization level from cosmic rays at an altitude of 2 km. When analysed globally, we find that the correlations do not correspond to the latitude variation of cosmic ray flux and they are not field significant. Nonetheless they appear to be marginally field significant over broad latitude and longitude bands with a peak positive correlation at 50 degrees North and South and a tendency to negative correlation at lower latitudes. The correlation is strongest over the North and South Atlantic. Several of these features are consistent with the predictions of the electroscavenging process.We use a simple model to calculate the climatic impact should the correlation be confirmed. We show that, under the most favorable conditions, a reduction in low cloud cover since the late 19th century, combined with the direct forcing by solar irradiance can explain a significant part of the global warming over the past century, but not all. However, this computation assumes that there is no feedback or changes in cloud at other levels.     

Oxygen and hydrogen in the primitive atmosphere

From time to time there appears in the literature the assertion that photolysis of water vapor could have maintained an appreciable concentration of oxygen in the primitive (prebiological) atmosphere. The implausibility of this assertion is argued in this paper.By itself, photolysis does not provide a source of oxygen because it is usually followed by recombination of the products of photolysis. Only the escape to space (at a much smaller rate) of the hydrogen produced by photolysis of water results in a net source of oxygen. The oxidation state of the primitive atmosphere depended on the relative magnitudes of this net source of oxygen and a volcanic source of hydrogen and other reduced gases. Today the volcanic source of reduced gases is approximately equal to the oxygen source provided by photolysis followed by escape. The oxygen source depends on the mixing ratio of water vapor in the stratosphere, which ultimately determines the rate of escape of hydrogen produced from water vapor. Its magnitude may not have been very different in the past. The volcanic source of hydrogen, on the other hand, is likely to have been much larger when the earth was tectonically young. Hydrogen was therefore released to the primitive atmosphere more rapidly than oxygen, probably. Photochemical reactions with the excess hydrogen maintained oxygen mixing ratios at negligibly small levels. The hydrogen mixing ratio was determined by a balance between the volcanic source (reduced by recombination with oxygen) and escape to space.In time, either because of decline of the volcanic source of hydrogen or because of addition of a biological source of oxygen, the input of oxygen to the atmosphere rose above the input of hydrogen. The oxidation state of the atmosphere changed rapidly. Volcanic hydrogen was now consumed by photochemical reactions with excess oxygen, while the oxygen mixing ratio was determined by a balance between the source (reduced by recombination with volcanic hydrogen) and consumption in reactions with reduced material at the surface.     

Characteristics of disturbances in the atmosphere and oceans

The characteristics of the disturbances in the atmosphere and oceans and in other stably stratified and rotating fluids are analyzed according to their phase and group velocities. It is shown that both stable stratification and rotation augment the velocity of the sound waves, and that the internal gravity waves and inertial waves are mutually exclusive when the Brunt-Väisälä frequency is different from the Coriolis parameter. It is also shown that both the barotropic and the internal Rossby waves are well separated from the gravity waves and that they can be represented accurately by the quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equation, even close to the equator, except for the one member withn=0 which is coupled with an eastward propagating gravity wave.     

Transition of solar cycle length in association with the occurrence of grand solar minima indicated by radiocarbon content in tree-rings

In this paper, we review the variation of the 11-year solar cycle since the 15th century revealed by the measurement of radiocarbon content in single-year tree-rings of Japanese cedar trees. Measurements of radiocarbon content in absolutely dated tree-rings provide a calibration curve for accurate dating of archaeological matters, but at the same time, enable us to examine the variations of solar magnetic activity in the pre-historical period. The Sun holds several long-term quasi-cyclic variations in addition to the fundamental 11-year sunspot activity cycle and the 22-year polarity reversal cycle, and it is speculated that the property of the 11-year and the 22-year solar cycle varies in association with such long-term quasi-cycles. It is essential to reveal the details of solar variations around the transition time of solar dynamo for illuminating the mechanisms of the long-term solar variations. We therefore have investigated the property of the 11-year and 22-year cycles around the two grand solar minima; the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD) and the Spoerer Minimum (1415–1534 AD), the periods of prolonged sunspot minima. As a result, slight stretching of the “11-year” and the “22-year” solar cycles was found during these two grand solar activity minima; continuously during the Maunder Minimum and only intermittently during the Spoerer Minimum. On the contrary, normal or slightly shortened 11-year cycles were detected during the interval period of these two minima. It suggests the inverse correlation between the solar cycle length and solar magnetic activity level, and also the change of meridional flow during the grand solar activity minima. Further measurements for the beginning of the grand solar minima will provide a clue to the occurrence of such prolonged sunspot disappearance. We also discuss the effect of solar variations to radiocarbon dating.     

Modelling the effect of an assumed cosmic ray-modulated global cloud cover on the terrestrial surface temperature

We have used the thermodynamic model of the climate to estimate the effect of variations in the oceanic cloud cover on the surface temperature of the Earth in the North Hemisphere (NH) during the period 1984–1990. We assume that the variations in the cloud cover are proportional to the variation of the cosmic ray flux measured during the same period. The results indicate that the effect in the temperature is slightly noticeable when we consider the surface hemispheric temperature on July 1987, finding an average temperature anomaly between −0.06°C and −0.14°C, along a latitudinal band between 20° and 40°. The surface temperature averaged globally in the NH presents a decrease of 0.01°C in average, which is almost the same for continents and oceans. However, these values are not significant when compared to the overall variability of the time series with and without forcing.     

Eddy diffusion coefficients and the variance of the atmosphere 30–60 km

The results of numerical models or of new observational programs are checked by comparing them with past observations. Also, it is desirable that the eddy diffusion coefficients used in two-dimensional models be derived from the same data set as the circulation statistics which the model outputs are checked against, so that all results refer to the same atmospheric conditions. For the first time, the three components of the eddy diffusion matrix, from 30–60 km, 80°N–10°S are computed, together with the means, variances and covariances of the wind and temperature through the same region using the same data set for 1960–76 and the same handling and analysis methods for all variables. Horizontal diffusivities,K _yy , are obtained from the variance and integral time scale of the meridional wind speed. The present values are generally smaller than past estimates, presumably because temporal variations longer than a month have been removed in this work. Estimates ofK _yz are based on the tentative assumption that the diffusivity is proportional to the slope of isentropic surfaces, and estimates ofK _zz are based on the assumption that small-scale gravity waves are primarily responsible for vertical mixing.     

Dry deposition and particle-size distribution of phosphorus in the marine atmosphere over the northeastern coast of Taiwan

This study is the first to measure the particulate phosphorus, including total inorganic phosphorus (TIP) and organic phosphorus (OP), in size-fractionated atmospheric particles. The results indicate that continental and marine sources are the key controls on the particle-size distribution of phosphorus species. For continental and local anthropogenic sources, both TIP and OP are associated with fine-mode aerosols during the winter and spring, and both are also associated with coarse particles during the summer and autumn. The coarse/fine ratios are low during periods with a non-oceanic source but high at other times, probably because of the biological growing season in the surface waters of the study area. The calculated annual fluxes based on estimates of dual-mode particles are 532±185, 435±172, and 96.8±48.8 μmol m⁻² yr⁻¹ for TP, TIP, and OP, respectively. Based on previously published solubility data for particulate phosphorus (34%), we calculated an annual flux of 180±63 μmol m⁻² yr⁻¹ for readily soluble particulate phosphorus.     

The spatial and temporal changes inV p /V s before strong earthquakes in Kamchatka

A method was developed to obtain from a signal station the spatial and temporal distribution ofV _p /V _s ratios before earthquakes of magnitude>6. It was shown thatV _p /V _s values strongly depend upon the relative positions of the stations, the future large earthquake and the foci of the smaller earthquakes used forV _p /V _s determination. The appearance of a zone of anomalousV _p /V _s values with linear dimensions of the order of 100 km was noted at least 4 years before a deep earthquake of magnitude 7. Similar size anomalous zones were detected one year before some magnitude 6 earthquakes. V _p /V _s values decreased by a small but distinct amount during this time. Additionally, local short term minima inV _p /V _s ratios were observed some months before the major event. The epicenters of the large earthquakes were located within the 100 km size zone where the gradients of theV _p /V _s field were largest.     

Study of spatial and temporal structure of long-term effects of solar activity and cosmic ray variations on the lower atmosphere circulation

The spatial and temporal structure of the effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux variations on the lower atmosphere circulation has been studied based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis archive for 1948–2006 and MSLP (Climatic Research Unit, UK) data for 1873–2000. It has been shown that the GCR effects on pressure variations are characterized by a strong latitudinal and regional dependence, which is determined by specific features of the tropospheric circulation in the studied regions. The distribution of the correlation coefficients for mean yearly values of atmospheric pressure with the GCR flux intensity is closely related to the position of the main climatological fronts. The periodic (∼60 years) changes in the correlation sign of the pressure at high and middle latitudes with Wolf numbers have been revealed. It has been suggested that the changes of the sign of SA/GCR effects on atmospheric pressure are caused by the changes of the macrocirculation epochs, which, in turn, may be related to large-scale processes on the Sun.     

Overland flow generation in chaparral ecosystems: temporal and spatial variability

Fire is an important and natural process in the lifecycle of chaparral systems, removing old growth and recycling nutrients. Recent catastrophic wildfires in southern California chaparral have heightened concerns about increased runoff and nutrient export. The goal of this study was to improve understanding of how overland flow is generated in unburned and post‐fire chaparral watersheds. Samples of overland flow were collected from burned and unburned watersheds after rainfall events and multiple regression analysis was used to examine the influence of individual storm characteristics and system moisture on overland flow volume. The results indicate that variation in overland flow generation in the unburned watershed is best explained by storm size, while overland flow in the burned watershed was positively related to storm size and time between storms. These findings suggest that the burned system had decreased infiltration rates and increased soil water repellency. In contrast, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between overland flow 1 year after a fire against different system and precipitation factors revealed a negative correlation with drying period and a positive relationship with rainfall intensity, a combination that suggests reduced repellency. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical experiment on the general circulation of the middle atmosphere with a three-dimensional model explicitly representing internal gravity waves and their breaking

The general circulation of the middle atmosphere is simulated by means of a three-dimensional primitive equation model which covers from the south pole to the north pole but is limited to a ten-degree sector in the latitudinal direction; cyclic conditions are imposed at the east—west lateral boundaries. The model is capable of explicitly representing internal gravity waves of zonal wavelength greater than a few hundred kilometers with the use of a one-degree mesh, but planetary-scale waves were excluded. No parameterization is employed for subgrid-scale eddy viscosity (or diffusivity).With the assumption of a simple external-heating function corresponding to solstice conditions, a time integration was performed for about thirty days from the motionless state. During the whole period, random forcings were imposed on each grid of the lowest level in order to generate small-scale upwardly propagating internal gravity waves.The experiment has shown that small-scale waves were indeed excited, propagated upward, broke up near the mesopause, and greatly changed the thermally induced zonal mean motion and temperature fields in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. As a result, important features of the general circulation at those levels, such as reversals of the zonal motion and the latitudinal gradient of zonal mean temperature were reproduced.     

The importance of energetic particle precipitation on the chemical composition of the middle atmosphere

An assessment is made of the relative contribution of certain classes of energetic particle precipitation to the chemical composition of the middle atmosphere with emphasis placed on the production of odd nitrogen and odd hydrogen species and their subsequent role in the catalytic removal of ozone. Galactic cosmic radiation is an important source of odd nitrogen in the lower stratosphere but since the peak energy deposition occurs below the region where catalytic removal of O₃ is most effective, it is questionable whether this mechanism is important in the overall terrestrial ozone budget. The precipitation of energetic solar protons can periodically produce dramatic enhancement in upper stratospheric NO. The long residence time of NO in this region of the atmosphere, where catalytic interaction with O₃ is also most effective, mandates that this mechanism be included in future modelling of the global distribution of O₃. Throughout the mesosphere the precipitation of energetic electrons from the outer radiation belt (60°70°) can sporadically act as a major local source of odd hydrogen and odd nitrogen leading to observable O₃ depletion. Future satellite studies should be directed at simultaneously measuring the precipitation flux and the concomitant atmosphere modification, and these results should be employed to develop more sophisticated models of this important coupling.     

Tracking contaminants in seabirds of Arctic Canada: temporal and spatial insights

Levels and trends of persistent organic pollutants and trace elements in seabirds breeding in the vast Canadian Arctic have been monitored since 1975. Data from this monitoring have indicated both spatial and temporal variation across the region, attributable in part to differences in species' diets, differences in regional deposition patterns, and unidirectional trends in contaminants reaching this area from emissions in temperate and tropical areas to the south. Seabird tissues have served as effective biomonitors to examine this variation, and national and international collaboration in this monitoring effort has promoted valuable synthetic assessments of spatial and temporal patterns in Arctic contaminants. Here we review the history of the monitoring program, the critical role played by Environment Canada's National Wildlife Specimen Bank, and we summarize important spatial and temporal trends in various contaminants in Canadian Arctic seabirds.     

中国地震科学实验场地震时空演变规律研究

通过分析某一区域地震事件的时空演化过程可以了解该区域地震的演化特征,为评估该地区地震的危险性提供依据。基于中国地震科学实验场2000年至2019年3.0级以上的地震事件数据,利用加权平均中心、标准差椭圆和全局空间自相关等空间统计学方法探索该地区地震事件的时空演变规律。结果表明:（1）汶川地震之后该地区地震的发生频次总体呈现出下降趋势,地震的活动性逐渐减弱。（2）地震加权平均中心呈现出"折返"型的移动规律,在东北-西南方向上来回震荡。（3）地震事件的空间分布呈现"东北-西南"格局走向,与映秀-北川断裂带的方向基本一致。（4）该地区地震事件的空间分布模式以聚集模式为主,且正处于上升阶段,但上升速度较为缓慢。     

Rate of sedimentation in Lake Kinneret,Israel: spatial and temporal variations

The rate of sedimentation in Lake Kinneret was measured over several years by means of sediment traps, in up to seven different locations in the lake. Gross sedimentation rates measured in the sediment traps vary from about 1·5 kg m⁻² a⁻¹ in the deepest part of the lake up to 10 kg m⁻² a⁻¹ near the mouth of the upper Jordan river. The rate of sedimentation near the Jordan's inflow is highly correlated to flow discharge in the river, while in the centre of the lake the seasonal sedimentation pattern is mainly correlated to the bloom period of Peridinium gatunense. During the bloom period of Peridinium gatunense sedimentation rates all over the lake are very similar, indicating that the Peridinium is evenly distributed in the lake. The average suspended sediment discharge of the upper Jordan river flowing into the lake is 41 000 ton a⁻¹.Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High spatial and temporal resolution observations of the ionospheric cusp

The Halley PACE HF radar has been operated in a new mode to provide very high time (10 s) and space (15 km) resolution measurements of the iono-spheric signatures of the cusp and the low-latitude boundary layer. The first data show that the iono-spheric signature of flux transfer events occur up to 300 km equatorward of regions showing the HF characteristics of the ionospheric cusp. Whilst larger flux transfer events are seen, on average, every 7 min, many much smaller and short-duration events have been identified. On one occasion DMSP data have been used to show that at least four flux transfer events are occurring simultaneously at the edge of the cusp over 2 h of MLT. There is strong, but not conclusive evidence, that reconnection at the magnetopause is both intermittent and patchy. These data also suggest that flux transfer events can be a significant contributor to the cross-polar cap potential.     

The temporal and spatial scales of rocky coast geomorphology: a commentary

Rocky shores are complex landforms that result from marine erosion and subaerial weathering. They are time‐integrated features where their present day form is the result of instantaneous erosion, often on the millimetre to sub‐metre scale, occurring for centuries to millennia. As a result, research on rocky coasts focuses on a range of temporal and spatial scales from granular‐scale swelling of a rock surface and instantaneous wave impact to modelling millennial‐scale sea level drivers. The challenge for rocky coast researchers is either to upscale or to downscale their results to the human‐timescales of greatest interest to managers. The research presented in Earth Surface Processes and Landforms over the past 3 years highlights the range of spatial and temporal approaches to the study of coastal cliffs and shore platforms. We identify a key temporal and spatial gap in current research. Seasonal–annual timeframes over hundreds of metres to kilometre scale studies appear to be lacking and are likely critical in understanding the future evolution of rocky coasts, especially their response to climate change. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The spatial and temporal characteristics of the seasonal precipitation over India

Three extreme cases of seasonal precipitation over 31 contiguous meteorological subdivisions of India were decomposed into orthogonal components using eigenvector technique to examine their spatial and temporal behaviour. The first two eigenvectors combined were found to represent the seasonal precipitation over India to a sufficient high degree of accuracy retaining 90–95 percent of the total variance. These two components show high spatial similarity in all the three cases of the precipitation examined.The first component is characterized by a coherent variation over the area with large coherent variation over the north-east India, Central India and the west coast of India. The coefficients of the component show annual behaviour with the peak values generally reached during July. This component is representative of the summer monsoon (June–September) mode.The second component characterizes out of phase variation in precipitation between Central India, adjoining parts of the area, and peninsular India. The coefficients of the component show the semi-annual oscillation. It appears that the role of the second eigenvector might be to represent regionality of the seasonal march of the monsoon rain.