Cosmic ray-induced ionization in the atmosphere: spatial and temporal changes

Detailed calculations of the time-variable spatial distribution of cosmic ray-induced ionization of the lower atmosphere are presented using a physical model. Using the differential energy spectrum of cosmic rays obtained from the worldwide neutron monitor network since 1951 and taking into account also the slow changes in the geomagnetic dipole, we have calculated the corresponding 3D (geographical coordinates and altitude) equilibrium ion concentration in the lower atmosphere as a function of time for the period 1951–2000. A comparison to the results of measurements validates the calculation method, as the calculated cosmic ray-induced ionization reproduces in general the observed altitudinal and latitudinal profiles of the ion concentration. The results of the present work provide a basis for a quantitative study of the solar–terrestrial relationships on long time scales.     

Global magnetic field of the Sun and long-term variations of galactic cosmic rays

The paper deals with the relation of long-term variations of 10 GV galactic cosmic rays (GCR) to the global solar magnetic field and solar wind parameters. This study continues previous works, where the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and other solar-heliospheric parameters are successfully used to describe long-term variations of cosmic rays in the past two solar cycles. The novelty of the present work is the use of the HCS tilt and other parameters reconstructed from Hα observations of filaments for the period when direct global solar magnetic field observations were unavailable. Thus, we could extend the GCR simulation interval back to 1953. The analysis of data for 1953–1999 revealed a good correlation (the correlation coefficient >0.88) between the solar-heliospheric parameters and GCR in different cycles of solar activity. Moreover, the approach applied makes it possible to describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of solar maxima, which could not be done before. This indicates both the adequacy of the model and the reliability of the reconstructed global solar magnetic field parameters.     

Modelling the effect of an assumed cosmic ray-modulated global cloud cover on the terrestrial surface temperature

We have used the thermodynamic model of the climate to estimate the effect of variations in the oceanic cloud cover on the surface temperature of the Earth in the North Hemisphere (NH) during the period 1984–1990. We assume that the variations in the cloud cover are proportional to the variation of the cosmic ray flux measured during the same period. The results indicate that the effect in the temperature is slightly noticeable when we consider the surface hemispheric temperature on July 1987, finding an average temperature anomaly between −0.06°C and −0.14°C, along a latitudinal band between 20° and 40°. The surface temperature averaged globally in the NH presents a decrease of 0.01°C in average, which is almost the same for continents and oceans. However, these values are not significant when compared to the overall variability of the time series with and without forcing.     

Correlation between clouds at different altitudes and solar activity: Fact or Artifact?

Studies of the relation between cosmic rays (CR) (solar activity) and atmospheric cloudiness are mostly based on the satellite ISCCP cloud data. However, doubts have been cast that these relations can be an artifact of instrumental effects, i.e., of the masking/obscuring low clouds by higher clouds in the satellite view. If this is the case, most of the earlier results based on ISCCP data would be devaluated. Here, we reanalyze the ISCCP cloud coverage data and its relation with the cosmic ray-induced ionization, and show that the correlation between low clouds and CR is affected by higher clouds in some geographical regions, but not everywhere. In turn, our results show that low clouds also may affect the relation of higher clouds with CR in some regions. Accordingly, correlation analysis can be performed only when the strong relation between clouds of different types is taken into account. In particular, studies based on global or latitudinal (zonally averaged) cloud data should be revised.     

中国大陆地震活跃期和全球部分地震带强震活动的相关性研究

对全球部分地震带强震活动的研究表明，中国大陆地震活跃期与全球某些地震带强震活动呈一定程度的正相关或负相关，且有些地震带的强度震超前于中国大陆活动或平静，因此，可以利用相关地震带的强震活动和某些地震带的超前性，预测中国大陆的地震活动趋势及判定中国大陆的地震活跃期。     

Impacts of macroalgal spores on the dynamics of adult macroalgae in a eutrophic estuary: high versus low hydrodynamic seasons and long-term simulations for global warming scenarios

A model describing macroalgal early life stages and adult dynamics was used to quantify the effects of non-adult forms on the productivity of adult macroalgae in a eutrophic estuary. Predictions indicate that during years with mild winters and low rainfall, spring blooms will occur at the expense of the growth and reproduction of overwintering adults and without the contribution of the spore bank. In these circumstances, there is a positive correlation between the intensity of the blooms and the biomass of overwintering adults until a maximum threshold value. On the contrary, in years with high rainfall and low or inexistent biomass of overwintering adults, the onset of adult’s growth depends on the biomass of viable dormant spores, the growing season occurs later and adult productivity is very limited. Long-term predictions for climate change scenarios suggest that, in general, global warming will have adverse affects on Ulva intestinalis productivity, with the adults being more affected than the early life stages.     

New model simulations of the global atmospheric electric circuit driven by thunderstorms and electrified shower clouds: The roles of lightning and sprites

Several processes acting below, in and above thunderstorms and in electrified shower clouds drive upward currents which close through the global atmospheric electric circuit. These are all simulated in a novel way using the software package PSpice. A moderate negative cloud-to-ground lightning discharge from the base of a thunderstorm increases the ionospheric potential above the thundercloud by 0.0013%. Assuming the ionosphere to be an equipotential surface, this discharge increases the current flowing in the global circuit and the fair-weather electric field also by 0.0013%. A moderate positive cloud-to-ground lightning discharge from the bottom of a thunderstorm decreases the ionospheric potential by 0.014%. Such a discharge may trigger a sprite, causing the ionospheric potential to decrease by . The time scales for the recovery of the ionospheric potential are shown to be , which is of the same order as the CR time constant for the global circuit. Knowing the global average rate of lightning discharges, it is found that negative cloud-to-ground discharges increase the ionospheric potential by only 4%, and that positive cloud-to-ground discharges reduce it by 3%. Thus, overall, lightning contributes only 1%—an almost insignificant proportion—to maintaining the high potential of the ionosphere. It is concluded that the net upward current to the ionosphere due to lightning is only . Further, it is concluded that conduction and convection currents associated with “batteries” within thunderclouds and electrified shower clouds contribute essentially equally ( each) to maintaining the ionospheric potential.     

全球及中国大陆强震时序活动特征

基于强震目录,讨论了全球、中国大陆西部及周边“大三角地区”和中国大陆地区强震活动时序特征。依据8级地震分段活动特征分析认为,20世纪60年代前后全球特大地震活动状态存在显著差异;利用最优分割统计分析认为,自1800年以来“大三角地区”经历了持续时间为100余年的8级地震活动过程;进一步分析认为全球和“大三角”地区强震活动可能具有至少百年尺度的地震“周期”,而且具有一定的准同步性。中国大陆地区MS≥7.0浅源地震活动明显受控于“大三角”地区和全球更大空间尺度的地震活动,地震活动时序上表现为十几年和近百年不同时间层次上的活动特征。     

Relationship between the regional tectonic activity and crustal structure in the eastern Tibetan plateau discovered by gravity anomaly

The eastern Tibetan plateau has been getting more and more attention because it combines active faults, uplifting, and large earthquakes together in a high-population region. Based on the previous researches, the most of Cenozoic tectonic activities were related to the regional structure of the local blocks within the crustal scale. Thus, a better understanding of the crustal structure of the regional tectonic blocks is an important topic for further study. In this paper, we combined the simple Bouguer gravity anomaly with the Moho depths from previous studies to investigate the crustal structure in this area. To highlight the crustal structures, the gravity anomaly caused by the Moho relief has been reduced by forward modeling calculations. A total horizontal derivative (THD) had been applied on the gravity residuals. The results indicated that the crustal gravity residual is compatible with the topography and the geological settings of the regional blocks, including the Sichuan basin, the Chuxiong basin, the Xiaojiang fault, and the Jinhe fault, as well as the Longmenshan fault zone. The THD emphasized the west margin of Yangtze block, i.e., the Longriba fault zone and the Xiaojiang fault cut through the Yangtze block. The checkboard pattern of the gravity residual in the Songpan-Garze fold belt and Chuandian fragment shows that the crust is undergoing a southward and SE-directed extrusion, which is coincident with the flowing direction indicated from the GPS measurements. By integrating the interpretations, the stepwise extensional mechanism of the eastern Tibetan plateau is supported by the southeastward crustal deformation, and the extrusion of Chuandian fragment is achieved by Xianshuihe fault.     

华北北部地区地震与太阳活动关系的统计研究

使用时间序列分析和相关分析方法,分析华北北部地区1970～2006年地震与太阳黑子、耀斑的相关性,得到的结论是,太阳活动与以中小地震为主的地震样本不存在统计关系。这个结论与以往的研究不同,本文对此做了初步分析。     

水位洪枯变化对菜子湖江湖过渡带鱼类物种和功能多样性的影响

水位的洪枯变化通过江湖连通影响泛滥平原湖泊鱼类的组成和分布,因而江湖过渡带是反映泛滥平原生态系统鱼类交流和多样性变动的关键区域.尽管如此,针对江湖过渡带鱼类群落随水位洪枯变化的研究十分匮乏.本研究以菜子湖江湖过渡带为例,分别在洪水和枯水期选取包括静水和流水生境的样点对鱼类群落进行系统的调查采样,探讨水位洪枯变化对菜子湖江湖过渡带鱼类物种和功能多样性的影响.共采集到鱼类6目12科37属52种,其中,洪水期和枯水期物种数差异显著,分别采集到鱼类50和42种,而静水生境和流水生境物种数差异不明显,分别采集到鱼类47和48种.与洪水期相比,枯水期山溪河流性鱼类的物种数、重量、尾数和优势度百分比分别减少了7.3%、6.3%、14.4%和12.0%;与静水生境相比,流水生境山溪河流性鱼类的物种数、重量、尾数和优势度百分比分别增加了5.3%、14.6%、18.0%和22.3%.SIMPER分析结果显示,麦穗鱼（Pseudorasbora parva）、蛇鮈（Saurogobio dabryi）、（Hemiculter leucisculus）、鲤（Cyprinus carpio）、鲫（Carassius auratus）、短颌鲚（Coilia brachygnathus）、似鳊（Pseudobrama simoni）、翘嘴鲌（Culter ilishaeformis）、达氏鲌（Culter dabryi）、光唇蛇鮈（Saurogobio gymnocheilus）和无须鱊（Acheilognathus gracilis）是引起水位洪枯变化以及不同生境类型鱼类群落结构差异的主要物种.优势度分析结果表明枯水期和静水生境的优势种鱼类相似,重要值较高的优势种鱼类为鲤、鲫、和似鳊;而洪水期和流水生境的优势种鱼类同样相似,重要值较高的优势种鱼类为麦穗鱼、蛇鮈、光唇蛇鮈和短颌鲚.通过双因素方差分析解析了水位洪枯变化和不同生境类型对鱼类物种和功能多样性的影响.发现洪枯水位变化仅对物种多样性指数中的物种数（Richness）产生显著差异,而对功能多样性的3个指数（功能丰富度指数（FRic）、功能离散指数（FDiv）和功能分散指数（FDis））均有显著影响.洪水期鱼类的Richness、FRic、FDiv和FDis指数均显著高于枯水期.同时,静水生境条件下的FRic指数要显著高于流水生境.本研究发现,与传统的物种多样性相比,基于功能性状的功能多样性对水位的洪枯变动更为敏感,河流周期性洪泛是泛滥平原生态系统中鱼类功能补充的重要方式.     

The errors in surface runoff prediction by neglecting the relationship between infiltration rate and overland flow depth

Many simplifications are used in modeling surface runoff over a uniform slope. A very common simplification is to determine the infiltration rate independent of the overland flow depth and to combine it afterward with the kinematic-wave equation to determine the overland flow depth. Another simplication is to replace the spatially variable infiltration rates along the slope i(x, t) due to the water depth variations h(x,t) with an infiltration rate that is determined at a certain location along the slope. The aim of this study is to evaluate the errors induced by these simplications on predicted infiltration rates, overland flow depths, and total runoff volume. The error analysis is accomplished by comparing a simplified model with a model where the interaction between the overland flow depth and infiltration rate is counted. In this model, the infiltration rate is assumed to vary along the slope with the overland flow depth, even for homogeneous soil profiles. The kinematic-wave equation with interactive infiltration rate, calculated along the slopy by Richard's equation, are then solved by a finite difference scheme for a 100-m-long uniform slope. In the first error analysis, we study the effect of combining an ‘exact’ and ‘approximate’ one-dimensional infiltration rate with the kinematic-wave equation for three different soil surface roughness coefficients. The terms ‘exact’ and ‘approximate’ stand for the solution of Richard's equation with and without using the overland flow depth in the boundary condition, respectively. The simulations showed that higher infiltration rates and lower overland flow depths are obtained during the rising stage of the hydrograph when overland flow depth is used in the upper boundary condition of the one-dimensional Richard's equation. During the recession period, the simplified model predicts lower infiltration rates and higher overland flow depths. The absolute relative errors between the ‘exact’ and ‘approximate’ solutions are positively correlated to the overland flow depths which increase with the soil surface roughness coefficient. For this error analysis, the relative errors in surface runoff volume per unit slope width throughout the storm are much smaller than the relative errors in momentary overland flow depths and discharges due to the alternate signs of the deviations along the rising and falling stages. In the second error analysis, when the spatially variable infiltration rate along the slope i(x, t) is replaced in the kinematic-wave equation by i(t), calculated at the slope outlet, the overland flow depth is underestimated during the rising stage of the hydrograph and overestimated during the falling stage. The deviations during the rising stage are much smaller than the deviations during the falling stage, but they are of a longer duration. This occurs because the solution with i(x, t) recognizes that part of the slope becomes dry after rainfall stops, while overland flow still exists with i(t) determined at the slope outlet. As obtained for the first error analysis, the relative errors in surface runoff volume per unit slope width are also much smaller than the relative errors in momentary overland flow depths and discharges. The relation between the errors in overland flow depth and discharge to different mathematical simplifications enables to evaluate whether certain simplifications are justified or more computational efforts should be used.     

The relations between modulus of elasticity and temperature in the context of the experimental simulation of rock weathering by fire

Fires occur frequently in many biomes and generate high temperatures on the ground surface. There are many field examples of fire causing rock disintegration. The simulation of fire in the laboratory (using a furnace) and the monitoring of changes in rock modulus of elasticity (with a Grindosonic apparatus), reveal that different rocks respond differently to heating. Significant decreases in elasticity occur at temperatures as low as 200°C and granites display particularly marked reductions. Extended periods of heating are not required for significant reductions to occur. It is postulated that the degree of change in elasticity as a result of simulated fire is such that rock outcrops subjected to real fires are likely to be sufficiently modified as to increase their susceptibility to erosion and weathering processes.