第四纪沉积物测年新进展

由于沉积环境和沉积物类型与成因的差异,第四纪沉积物岩性、组成会随时间变化,并且结构和厚度在空间上也可能发生明显变化,使得长期以来难以测得其准确年代。论文对K/Ar法和⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar法、玻璃陨石法、铀系定年、氨基酸外消旋法、宇宙成因核素法、电子自旋共振定年等各种方法的定年范围和测定对象进行了介绍,分析了第四纪测年方法新进展存在的主要问题和改进途径。要提高所测年代结果的可靠性和准确度,不仅需要丰富的地质工作经验,还需要选择最恰当的定年方法,并且尽可能用多种定年方法进行交叉对比。随着第四纪环境演变及全球气候变化等方面的研究日益受到地质学者的关注,相信第四纪沉积物定年方法在全球气候变化、环境演化等研究领域具有更加广阔的发展前景。     

Mapping the Risk of Burning in the Brazilian Amazon with the Use of Logistic Regression and Fuzzy Inference

Through the PRODESDIGITAL Project, the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) has been mapping vegetal coverage in the Brazilian Legal Amazon using Landsat satellite images. INPE not only identifies deforested areas but also releases a daily map of burning areas. Burning is frequently used as the cheapest way to deforest, to clear areas for farming and to increase the soil’s fertility in a short period of time. In many instances, these fires get out of control and end up accidentally invading areas of forest exploited by the lumber industry, agricultural plantations and pastures. However, the deforestation and burning area maps alone are insufficient for monitoring and control on a regional scale. It is necessary to know in an analytical way how actions (deforestation and burnings) that characterize human occupation are occurring in a region. In this research, two methods are used that allow the inclusion of co-variation in the estimation of variables of interest: logistic regression, which is a statistical method that considers a categorical or discrete response variable and discrete and/or continuous co-variation; and fuzzy logic, which makes use of artificial intelligence methods to incorporate into computational models information based on the knowledge or experience of a specialist. In both methods, the response variable may be related to the probability of occurrence of the environmental variable under study.     

甘肃第四纪沉积物的成因类型及特征

甘肃第四纪沉积物为陆相沉积,依据沉积物搬运介质、气候条件、沉积环境、搬运动力,将成因划分为风化作用系列、坡地重力作用系列、水流作用系列、湖沼作用系列、冰川作用系列、风力作用系列、生物作用系列、人为作用系列、混合作用系列共9大系列,22种成因类型。     

Thematic Map Analysis Using Multiple Regression

Thematic maps can be analyzed by multiple regression for (1) forward prediction where a younger geological structural map is written as a least-squares function of older maps for information on historical perspectives or (2) by backward prediction where an older map is regressed stepwise on a series of younger ones to aid in prospecting. The technique was evaluated by a series of structure maps on different geological horizons from the U.S. Midcontinent (Kansas) where the forward prediction proved more effective than backward. In forward prediction, the first map entered into a multiple regression is invariably the immediately underlying one as expected. On the other hand, the first map in a backward prediction is not necessarily related to stratigraphy which limits the utility of the technique for prospecting.     

Palaeoclihlatic Indicators of China's Quaternary Saline Lake Sediments and Hydrochemistry

In this paper the authors classify saline lake sediments into the cold, warm and eurythermal phases, reveal the consistency between the zoning of hydrochemical types of modern saline lake water and climatic zoning and give climatic parameters under the conditions of typical cold phase (mirabilite and natron), warm phase (thenar-dite) and slightly warm phase (bloedite) saline lake deposition.     

Palaeoclimatic Indicators of China's Quaternary Saline Lake Sediments and Hydrochemistry

In this paper the authors classify saline lake sediments into the cold, warm and eurythermal phases, reveal the consistency between the zoning of hydrochemical types of modern saline lake water and climatic zoning and give climatic parameters under the conditions of typical cold phase (mirabilite and natron), warm phase (thenardite) and slightly warm phase (bloedite) saline lake deposition.     

Palaeoclihlatic Indicators of China's Quaternary Saline Lake Sediments and Hydrochemistry

In this paper the authors classify saline lake sediments into the cold, warm and eurythermal phases, reveal the consistency between the zoning of hydrochemical types of modern saline lake water and climatic zoning and give climatic parameters under the conditions of typical cold phase (mirabilite and natron), warm phase (thenar-dite) and slightly warm phase (bloedite) saline lake deposition.     

Discrimination of Mine Seismic Events and Blasts Using the Fisher Classifier,Naive Bayesian Classifier and Logistic Regression

Seismic events and blasts generate seismic waveforms that have different characteristics. The challenge to confidently differentiate these two signatures is complex and requires the integration of physical and statistical techniques. In this paper, the different characteristics of blasts and seismic events were investigated by comparing probability density distributions of different parameters. Five typical parameters of blasts and events and the probability density functions of blast time, as well as probability density functions of origin time difference for neighbouring blasts were extracted as discriminant indicators. The Fisher classifier, naive Bayesian classifier and logistic regression were used to establish discriminators. Databases from three Australian and Canadian mines were established for training, calibrating and testing the discriminant models. The classification performances and discriminant precision of the three statistical techniques were discussed and compared. The proposed discriminators have explicit and simple functions which can be easily used by workers in mines or researchers. Back-test, applied results, cross-validated results and analysis of receiver operating characteristic curves in different mines have shown that the discriminator for one of the mines has a reasonably good discriminating performance.     

逻辑回归和信息量模型在山区滑坡易发性评价中适宜性的分析

以万山区为例,在区域滑坡孕灾条件的基础上,筛选工程地质岩组、斜坡结构、平均坡度、地貌、距构造距离及距河流距离共6个易发条件因子,选取逻辑回归模型和信息量模型对山区滑坡进行易发性评价。结果显示逻辑回归模型中中高易发区面积占比分别为1578%和1970%,82%的地质灾害点落在该区域内;信息量模型中中高易发区面积占比为1241%、2519%,包含了区域88%的滑坡灾害点。最后通过实际发生的灾害点在各易发区的分布情况进行检验,逻辑回归模型中灾害点落在高易发区的比例远小于信息量模型,且高易发等级中灾害点实际发生的比值较小,说明针对山区区域滑坡地质灾害易发性评价结果预测上,信息量模型的评价结果更为客观准确。     

湄公河三角洲第四系沉积物地球化学特征及其地质意义

湄公河三角洲是由发源于青藏高原的世界第7长河——湄公河于南海西南部入海口处沉积而成.由于缺少可靠的地球化学资料和系统研究,湄公河三角洲地区第四系沉积物源性质尚不明确,制约了对湄公河三角洲源汇系统的进一步认识.本文对湄公河三角洲第四系沉积物进行了重矿物、主量元素和微量元素的地球化学特征分析,结果表明:所有样品稀土元素球粒...     

A Comparison of Modified Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,and Logistic Regression for Mapping Mineral Prospectivity

Weights of evidence and logistic regression are two of the most popular methods for mapping mineral prospectivity. The logistic regression model always produces unbiased estimates, whether or not the evidence variables are conditionally independent with respect to the target variable, while the weights of evidence model features an easy to explain and implement modeling process. It has been shown that there exists a model combining weights of evidence and logistic regression that has both of these advantages. In this study, three models consisting of modified fuzzy weights of evidence, fuzzy weights of evidence, and logistic regression are compared with each other for mapping mineral prospectivity. The modified fuzzy weights of the evidence model retains the advantages of both the fuzzy weights of the evidence model and the logistic regression model; the advantages being (1) the predicted number of deposits estimated by the modified fuzzy weights of evidence model is nearly equal to that of the logistic regression model, and (2) it can deal with missing data. This method is shown to be an effective tool for mapping iron prospectivity in Fujian Province, China.     

Late Quaternary Calcareous Nannofossils from the Offshore Sediments in southern Hongkong

Based upon the features of nannofossil composition, distribution, abundance and diversity, the fossil-bearing sediments exposed by five drill holes in the offshore area of southern Hongkong can be divided into the upper Middle Pleistocene, the Upper Pleistocene and Holocene. There were two palaeoclimatic stages in the Holocene in this area according to fossil palaeoecologic and sedimentation analyses: the temperature-rising stage and the warm stage. The latter involves two temperature-falling periods, which could be the major factor causing sea-level fall during that time.     

基于逻辑回归模型的化探异常信息识别研究——以克拉玛依地区为例

化探数据对矿产资源勘查工作有着重要作用,其中比较关键的工作就是从化探数据中识别矿床相关的化探异常信息.在化探异常信息识别工作中也发展出了较多的技术,但是它们大多针对单变量进行分析.为了对多变量化探数据进行分析并识别金矿相关的地球化学异常信息,笔者将逻辑回归模型用于研究区化探数据分析,通过研究区内对金矿预测比较有价值的16种元素的逻辑回归建模及模型应用,发现逻辑回归是一种有效的化探多变量数据分析和建模技术,研究结果显示,笔者建立的逻辑回归模型不仅可以有效识别已知金矿区的地球化学异常信息,而且对那些还未发现矿床的区域具有预测作用,能够为矿产资源勘查工作重点区域的选择提供指导.     

近红外漫反射光谱在沉积物化学成分分析中的研究进展

沉积物中有机质及相关元素含量、重金属含量等是研究环境污染和古环境的依据。利用近红外漫反射光谱测定沉积物中的化学成分,方法简便、快捷、价廉。本文概述了近红外漫反射光谱测定沉积物中化学成分的基本流程、样品制备及建模方法,介绍了如何通过选择建模样品、利用光谱预处理及回归分析等方法提高近红外光谱模型的定量能力,综述了近红外漫反射光谱分析沉积物中的有机碳、总氮、总磷、生物硅、重金属含量等方法。但是利用近红外光谱分析沉积物中的化学成分研究起步较晚,仍存在很多问题,有必要深入探讨近红外光谱分析沉积物的化学成分时产生误差的机理,进一步开展建模样品的计算机选择方法、光谱预处理方法和数学模型优化等方面的研究,提高近红外漫反射光谱分析沉积物中化学成分的精密度和准确度。     

河南新乡第四纪地层划分与沉积环境分析

新乡位于豫西北山地与豫东平原过渡位置,黄河冲积扇的不断发展以及第四纪早期的新构造运动对该区第四纪沉积过程产生影响。通过对新乡多个钻孔岩心进行系统性描述、年龄测试、沉积相分析以及钻孔地层间对比分析,结果显示：黄河冲积扇的发展及黄河主河道的南北向迁移,是研究区第四纪沉积过程的重要影响因素,研究区第四纪沉积相以河流相为主,横向上对比良好;多个场地的钻孔揭示研究区全新统厚度约10 m,平均年龄95 ka左右;更新统上部厚度约69 m,平均年龄129 ka左右;更新统中部厚度约55 m,平均年龄小于829 ka;更新统下部未见底。在第四纪早期,黄河冲积扇主河道在研究区西侧,尚未发育到新乡地区,对该区的影响较小,以细粒的泛滥平原沉积物为主;第四纪中期,黄河冲积扇快速向东部发展,河道迁移至研究区北东侧,沉积了明显的河流相,砂体厚度明显增加;第四纪中晚期,基本继承前期的河流相沉积,随着河道南迁,砂体含量有所下降。受到新构造运动的影响,新乡地区第四纪地层北东部出现沉积间断,并且局部地区出现差异沉降,北东侧地势高于南西侧。     

上海松江地区第四纪地层与沉积环境特征

上海地区第四纪以来沉积的松散沉积物,地层和沉积环境具有显著的空间差异。本文利用松江地区第四纪钻孔的测年、有孔虫、孢粉等测试资料,研究阐述了过渡沉积区地层发育和沉积环境特征,为地层厘定及全面认识上海地区第四纪地质演化规律提供依据,并为地层的区域对比研究提供参考。     

信息量模型、确定性系数模型与逻辑回归模型组合评价地质灾害敏感性的对比研究

为探索区域地质灾害敏感性评价方法,以宁夏盐池县为研究区域,选取坡度、坡向、坡高、高程、地层、距河流距离、距道路距离、植被覆盖度等8个影响地质灾害发生的评价因子,分别采用信息量模型+逻辑回归模型(I+LR)和确定性系数模型+逻辑回归模型(CF+LR)2种组合模型对盐池县地质灾害敏感性进行评价,将该区域地质灾害划分为极低、低、中和高敏感区4类,并完成结果检验。结果表明：(1)2种组合模型得到的低、中敏感区面积基本相当,而高敏感区面积相差较大,CF+LR模型较I+LR模型高敏感区面积增加约5336 km2,而极低敏感区面积减少约6%;(2)2种组合模型的合理性均符合检验要求,且ROC精度检验AUC值分别为0868和0829,渐进Sigb均小于005,表明2种组合评价模型都能较为客观准确地评价盐池县地质灾害敏感性;(3)ROC检验精度与盐池县地质灾害发育情况均表明I+LR模型精度更高。     

基于CF和Logistic回归模型的广东省地质灾害易发性评价

在研究广东省崩塌、滑坡、泥石流孕灾环境的基础上,选取高程、坡度、地质年代、岩性、距断层距离、距水系距离、归一化植被指数(NDVI)7个因子作为地质灾害易发条件因子。首先利用CF模型计算出7个因子各分类级别的CF值,然后将各因子的CF值作为自变量,是否发生地质灾害作为因变量,利用Logistic回归模型得到各因子的回归系数。再对各因子之间的独立性进行检验,所选7个因子都符合独立性检验条件,全部进入到逻辑回归方程中,计算出各独立单元发生崩滑流地质灾害的概率。根据计算结果将广东省崩滑流地质灾害易发程度划分成四类:极低易发区(16.63%),低易发区(28.65%),中易发区(32.57%),高易发区(22.15%)。评价模型的合理性和精确度都符合检验要求,说明采用确定性系模型和逻辑回归模型能够较为客观准确地评价广东省地质灾害易发性。