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1.
The factors modulating recruitment success of Cape hake Merluccius capensis in Namibian waters are still unresolved. In this study, we used generalised additive models, regression tree analysis and the conventional Ricker model to examine the effect of environmental indices and spawning stock biomass (SSB) on hake recruitment success for the period 1984–2012. Results indicated that upwelling strength explained 51% of the recruitment variability, whereas SSB had no significant influence. The effect of SSB on recruitment only became significant when combined with upwelling strength, explaining 89% of the recruitment variability. SSB influenced recruitment during periods of strong upwelling. Optimal conditions for hake recruitment were associated with moderate upwelling strength. Low and high upwelling intensities reduced recruitment success. Our results are consistent with those of other studies suggesting a significant influence of environmental conditions on recruitment at a low spawning stock level. Our study highlights the importance of assessing the combined non-linear effects of both biotic and abiotic factors on hake recruitment.  相似文献   

2.
Jean-Noël Druon   《Marine Policy》2010,34(2):293-297
The feeding and spawning habitats of the overfished Atlantic bluefin tuna (BFT) are mapped in the Mediterranean Sea and used in the present proposal for selecting restricted fishing grounds. The feeding habitat is mainly traced by oceanic fronts of satellite-derived temperature and chlorophyll while the spawning habitat is mostly characterized by an important heating of surface waters. The proposal recommends opening the fishery in feeding areas in case the BFT stock is low (current situation). Only spawning areas at its latest stage could be opened once the stock has recovered to its optimum yield. Due to the possible concentration of fishing vessels if fishing areas are restricted (e.g. four-fold increase with a 1/16th restriction of the Mediterranean Sea) the inspection activities could be better targeted. Identified spawning grounds, opened or closed to fishing, could also be particularly monitored by control operations. Within the authorized areas, the habitat maps would guide fishermen to the favourable habitat reducing their costs. The habitat guided management could be able to adapt the spatial and temporal distribution of the effort to the requirements of both the fisheries’ control and the resource. Its implementation is likely to protect the stock (a) by apparently decreasing illegal fishing which accounts in the recent years for more than 1/3rd of total catches, (b) by protecting the spawners to ensure a suitable recruitment and (c) by distributing the effort to respect the population structure. The first species studied is the emblematic bluefin tuna which is at high risk of collapse due to overfishing. The approach is a priori transposable to other epipelagic species of commercial importance.  相似文献   

3.
Management of fisheries that exploit mixed-stock populations relies on assumptions made concerning stock structure and mixing in different areas. To address the problems of accounting for uncertainty when formulating scientific advice for the management of highly migratory fish stocks, management decisions need to be based upon assessment models that represent plausible alternative hypotheses for stock structure and migration patterns of the exploited populations. We present a multi-stock, multi-fleet, multi-area, seasonally structured Bayesian state-space model in which different stocks spawn in spatially different areas and the mixing of these stocks is explicitly accounted for in the absence of sufficient tagging data with which to estimate migration rates. The model is applied to the Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus population, accounting for the annual spawning-feeding-overwintering migration patterns of the three spawning components, together with uncertainty in the extent to which the southern component migrates north to feed and overwinter, and consequently the extent to which it mixes with the other components and is subject to exploitation. The model allows the effect of exploitation on the individual components to be assessed, and the results suggest that the fishing mortality of southern spawning adults was insensitive to the extent to which they migrated north.  相似文献   

4.
张畅  陈新军 《海洋学报》2019,41(2):99-106
澳洲鲐(Scomber australasicus)是西北太平洋重要的中上层经济鱼类,生命周期相对较短,资源量受补充量影响明显,了解澳洲鲐太平洋群系补充量状况对掌握其资源量及确保其可持续利用具有重要的意义。本文利用产卵场1(30°~32°N,130°~132°E)海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST1)、产卵场2(34°~35°N,138°~141°E)海表面温度(SST2)、索饵场(35°~45°N,140°~160°E)海表面温度(SST3)、潮位差(tidal range,TR)、太平洋年代际涛动(Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO)和亲体量(spawning stock biomass,SSB)6个影响因子任意组合与补充量构建多个模型,运用贝叶斯模型平均法(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)分析各个环境因子对资源补充量的解释能力,并预测其补充量的变化。结果表明,SSB对补充量具有最长期且稳定的解释能力,其次是SST3,PDO、TR、SST2、SST1也对补充量模型具有一定的解释能力。SST3是环境因子中影响最大的因子,可能是由于补充群体在索饵场内生活时间较长,索饵场温度对仔鱼或鱼卵的生长存活有较大的影响。研究认为,基于BMA的组合预报综合考虑了各个模型的优势,优于单一模型,可用于澳洲鲐资源补充量的预测。  相似文献   

5.
Cheating about the cod   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The Northeast Arctic cod is managed by a total quota shared evenly between Norway and Russia. It appears that Russia has been overfishing its quota by substantial amounts for a number of years, due to insufficient monitoring of fishing vessels. This paper considers what would be the best reply by Norway to given levels of Russian overfishing. It is found that in most cases the best Norwegian reply would be also to overfish its quota. An aggregate biomass model with stochastic growth and recruitment is used to analyze this question, with parameters estimated from 1946 to 2005 data. Recruitment is serially correlated but apparently independent of the spawning stock. A model using the estimated serial correlation in recruitment and a random disturbance is capable of reproducing recruitment patterns similar to the irregular pattern observed since 1946.  相似文献   

6.
In this paper Cohort Analysis (VPA) with the data on catch in number by age and year is used to estimate independently fishing mortality, abundance and actual number of spawning stock of the Pacific herring in the Huanghai Sea. The results show that catch rate of the fishery is very high, and that the fishing mortality of the dominant age group aged 2-4 was 0.87-2.97 during the years 1971-1984. The size of year class has been decreased since 1982 although the variability for this species in the Huanghai Sea is frequent. This results in reducing the recruitment of the fishery, the abundance and the actual number of spawning stock. Therefore, an urgent management measure should be considered.The magnitude of several sources of errors in Cohort Analysis (VPA) are examined, and the precision of the estimates is mainly dependent on an accurate natural mortality.  相似文献   

7.
Commercial exploitation of lobsters from the Indian seas began in the 1950s. Annual landings have been declining from a peak of 4075 t in 1985 to 1364 t in 2002. Major fisheries were located on the north‐west, south‐west, and south‐east coasts. Among the 12 species recorded, only four species of spiny lobsters (three littoral and one deep sea) and one species of slipper lobster are commercially important. At Kayalpattinam and Tharuvaikulam, on the south‐east coast, lobster landings sharply declined for the gill‐net fishery. Of the two species that contributed to the fishery, Panulirus ornatus and Panulirus homarus, the latter has been more affected owing to high vulnerability to fishing activities. Catch composition analysis of the trammel‐net fishery showed that 35% of the landings consisted of P. homarus in the size range of 23–50 mm carapace length. On the north‐west coast, the spiny lobster Panulirus polyphagus and the slipper lobster Thenus orientalis are incidentally caught in trawl nets. However, the fishery for T. orientalis in the waters off Mumbai lasted only up to 1994. Large‐scale exploitation of spawning females, which formed 60% of the total catch, might have been detrimental to the recruitment process resulting in rapid decline and total collapse of the fishery. Abundance of P. polyphagus reached its maximum during September, constituting 23% of the average annual landing during 1988–2002. A high exploitation ratio (>0.7) indicated over‐fishing of the stock. Repeated spawning and high annual egg production are probably responsible for sustaining the stock, despite over‐exploitation. Major problems confronting the resource management of the multi‐gear and multi‐species lobster fisheries in India are discussed. An operational project, involving fisher community, has been taken up for creating awareness of the need for sustainable exploitation of the resource. Regulatory measures, such as closure of the fishery during the peak of the breeding season, ban on trammel‐net, mandatory release of egg‐bearing lobsters, and establishment of lobster sanctuaries are suggested to the State Governments for implementation.  相似文献   

8.
The SE Pacific stock of Patagonian grenadier (Macruronus magellanicus) showed evidence of an abrupt reduction in recruitment after 2000. This drop exceeded expectations from changes in the spawning stock biomass (SSB), indicating a change in the stock-recruitment relationship (S-R). We evaluated whether variability in recruitment could be explained by concurrent changes in three environmental indices: sea-surface temperature anomaly (SSTA); southern oscillation index (SOI); and latitudinal position of the west wind drift bifurcation (WWDL). Continuous and discrete effects of these indices were tested as covariates in linear log-log and non-linear Ricker's S-R models. Discrete effects represented regime shifts detected in SSTA (1998), SOI (1998) and WWDL (1995). While SSTA was the only continuous variable found to be significant, the discrete 1998 regime shift supported the most informative model. The best Ricker's model considered a discrete intercept change in the same year: 1998. Although a spurious correlation between SSTA and S-R changes is possible, SSTA may be reflecting major physical or biological changes relevant to M. magellanicus juveniles in the SE Pacific.  相似文献   

9.
Short-lived species are extremely dependent on the seasonal and interannual variability of environmental conditions, and determining their stock status is often difficult. This study investigates the effects of environmental variability and fishing pressure on the stock of octopus Octopus vulgaris in Senegalese waters over a 10-year period from 1996 to 2005. Monthly catches-at-age were estimated based on catch-at-weight data and a polymodal decomposition constrained by a given growth curve. Octopus recruitments and fishing mortalities were then estimated using a catch-at-age analysis performed on a monthly basis. Yield and biomass per recruit were simulated using a Thompson and Bell model and used to generate a diagnostic of the fishery's impacts. Results indicate that the high interannual and seasonal variability of the octopus stock biomass is linked to the spring recruitment event, the annual intensity of which was significantly correlated with the coastal upwelling index and sea surface temperature. Yield per recruit varied seasonally but remained almost unchanged from one year to the next. Even when catches vary strongly according to recruitment, the octopus stock appears to be consistently fully exploited, or slightly overexploited in some years. In this context of environmental variability, usual indicators such as the maximum yield per recruit, and the related fishing mortality and spawning potential ratio, remain useful for fisheries management purposes.  相似文献   

10.
In the North Atlantic the Icelandic, the North Sea, and the Newfoundland cod stocks are currently overexploited. Overexploitation also characterised the Northeast Arctic cod stock, but effective management measures introduced in 1990 and the years thereafter have brought this stock within safe biological limits. The Northeast Arctic cod stock is transboundary and shared between Norway and Russia. As guidelines for a sound management strategy of this cod stock in the future, reference points for management are discussed. As a point of departure, a management strategy which fulfils the objectives for fishery policy stated by Norway is analysed. These objectives, focusing on sustainable harvesting, increased profitability and the role of the fishery as employer of labour in rural districts are fundamental in most of the world's fishery nations.The “optimal” strategy is defined as the one which fulfils these in the best way possible. The natural variations are discussed and the biological and economic yield's dependence upon the rate of exploitation are analysed. The analysis shows that the size of the spawning stock should be no less than 500 000 tonnes and that highest yield is obtained through a rate of exploitation of around 17–30% (equivalent to a fishing mortality of about 0.20–0.40). A spawning stock size of 500 000 tonnes should therefore serve as a “limit reference point” and a fishing mortality of about 0.20–0.40 should serve as a “target reference point” in the management of Northeast Arctic cod.The method described may be applied to other demersal stocks to help establish target and limit reference points in order to conduct a sound management.  相似文献   

11.
The shrimp spawn in autumn, and the females carry their eggs as out roe until spring when the larvae hatch. Within a period of 2 months the shrimp larvae settle to the bottom. It has been claimed that the year-class strength probably is determined during the larval phase. Today's assessment and forecast of the shrimp stock productivity and potential fishing yields are weak. This is partly due to poor knowledge on population dynamics from hatching until the shrimp are caught in the fishery at the age of 3 or 4 years. We, therefore, here identify the most important abiotic and biotic factors that affect recruitment in addition to spawning stock biomass. Since 1995, a net attached to the underbelly of the survey trawl used at the annual cruise in the Barents Sea has caught juvenile shrimp. The abundance of settled shrimp larvae varies in time and space. The recruitment to the fishery has been quite stable with the exception of the 1996 year-class, which was observed as 1-year-olds but has not been registered since. The temporal pattern of the three youngest year-classes is studied in relation to abiotic factors such as sea temperature, ice index and North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as biotic factors such as spawning stock biomass and presence of copepods, euphausiids and predating cod. Recruitment indices and factors identified by the Spearmann correlation to be significantly correlated with recruitment were used as input in a principal component analysis (PCA) and a generalized additive model (GAM) was applied. Abundance of 1-year-old shrimp is positively correlated to spawning stock biomass the previous year and to temperature of the previous winter, and negatively correlated with the number of 1-year-old cod. Two-year-old shrimp show significant correlation with temperature, whereas there is a strong negative correlation with euphausiids. Three-year-old shrimp are significantly correlated with the number of 2-year-old shrimp the previous year but negatively correlated to temperature at sampling time. This is probably due to less overlap with the main predator cod when cold. Ricker functions indicate an increased density-dependent mortality with age. When predicting the recruitment of shrimp to the fishery, the spawning stock biomass, the abundance of cod and euphausiids, as well as the temperature should be included.  相似文献   

12.
In the existing management procedure for the South African anchovy Engraulis capensis resource, an initial Total Allowable Catch (TAC) is set at the start of the fishing season in January, before the year's recruitment of 0-year-old fish, an important component of the catch, is known. Recruitment is therefore assumed to be equal to the observed median. This TAC may be revised in May or June, after the actual recruitment has been estimated. This procedure incorporates a risk that, if recruitment is below the median, the stock could be adversely depleted before the mid-year recruitment survey. A simulation approach is used in this paper to assess the possible benefits, in terms of average annual catch and interannual fluctuations in catch, of three different methods of predicting recruitment earlier in the season, if such methods were available. The results show that the average annual catch could be increased theoretically by up to 48 per cent if a very precise prediction (CV = 0,1) could be made at the start of the fishing season. In practice, more modest improvements of 21 per cent by prerecruit surveys undertaken in March each year, or 16 per cent by means of a two-class ordinal prediction with 70 per cent success, may be attainable. However, these improvements would result in increased interannual fluctuations in catch, a situation which may be detrimental to the fishing industry.  相似文献   

13.
Declining catches are typically taken to be a warning sign of overfishing. But in fact, many such declines have been driven by recruitment changes unrelated to stock size, as evidenced by the failure of stocks to recover after reduction in fishing or recovery despite the failure to reduce fishing. Given a declining pattern, supposedly precautionary decisions to reduce fishing should be treated as experimental management options with a high probability of not resulting in the desired recovery to more productive stock sizes. Simple decision tables can be used to compare such experimental options to “wait and see” options that do not involve fishing reductions. A case example with a grouper fishery in Kuwait demonstrates that experimental effort reduction may not be the best policy from a decision analysis perspective, at least when there are substantial reasons to expect recruitment changes unrelated to stock size. In this case, virtual population analysis and stock reduction analysis models indicate either unusually weak recruitment compensation (steepness h < 0.4) or progressive decline in recruitment carrying capacity, possibly caused by decreases in estuarine rearing habitat associated with declining flows of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers.  相似文献   

14.
An age-structured population model was used to examine the variability of yield created by randomly fluctuating recruitment success in the South African anchovy Engraulis capensis stock. Three different harvesting strategies were examined: (1) constant age-specific pattern of fishing mortality, (2) constant quota with effort limitation and (3) annual quota adjustments by means of an F msy procedure. Variable recruitment was generated by a stochastic stock-recruit relationship, and mean yields, mean spawner biomasses and probability distributions of yield were calculated at each exploitation level after 150 projections from the population structure of anchovy in 1981. Under conditions of constant fishing mortality, the variability of yield increased continuously as the exploitation rate was increased. The maximum average yield (MAY) is the stochastic equivalent of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of deterministic models, but an attempt to sustain this MAY by a constant quota resulted in a very high risk of stock collapse. An Fmsy policy based on pre-season adult biomass resulted in more variable yields than were obtained at the equivalent constant fishing mortality at age. Stability of yield therefore demanded the acceptance of lower average yields than could be attained in the long term by quota adjustment. It was considered that the South African purse-seine industry could not cope with the wide fluctuations of yield necessary to attain MAY. Specific management policies sufficiently robust to withstand both fluctuating recruitment success and the uncertainties in the parameters of working population models would be required.  相似文献   

15.
During 1995–2011, annual production of winter-spring cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii for Chinese squidjigging fishery has greatly fluctuated, which is closely related to the environmental conditions on the spawning and fishing grounds. To better understand how squid recruitment and abundance were influenced by ocean environmental conditions, biological and physical environmental variables including sea surface temperature(SST), SST anomaly(SSTA), chlorophyll a(Chl a) concentration and the Kuroshio Current were examined during years with the highest(1999), intermediate(2005), and lowest(2009) catches. Catch per unit effort(CPUE) of the squid-jigging vessels was used as an indicator of squid abundance. The results indicated that high SST and Chl a concentration on the spawning ground in 1999 resulted in favorable incubation and feeding conditions for squid recruitment. Whereas the suitable spawning zone(SSZ) in 2009 shifted southward and coincided with low SST and Chl a concentration, resulting in a reduction in the squid recruitment. The small difference of SSZ area in the three years suggested the SSZ provided limited influences on the variability in squid recruitment. Furthermore,high squid abundance in 1999 and 2005 was associated with warm SSTA on the fishing ground. While the cool SSTA on the fishing ground in 2009 contributed to adverse habitat for the squid, leading to extremely low abundance. It was inferred that strengthened intensity of the Kuroshio force generally yielded favorable environmental conditions for O. bartramii. Future research are suggested to focus on the fundamental research on the early life stage of O. bartramii and mechanism of how the ocean-climate variability affects the squid abundance and spatial distribution by coupling physical model with squid biological process to explore transport path and abundance distribution.  相似文献   

16.
Monthly fishery survey data of the small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis in the southern Yellow Sea from2003 and 2013 were employed to evaluate the variation in the resource distribution and biological characteristics(especially body length and sex ratio) in the population on a decadal scale.The results indicated that the small yellow croaker migrated from the Shawai fishing ground to the Dasha fishing ground in spring and was mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the Dasha fishing ground in April and May.Larimichthys polyactis in the Dasha fishing ground migrated eastward to offshore wintering grounds in autumn and reached the central Dasha fishing ground in October and November.The small yellow croaker entered the western waters of the Shawai fishing ground in winter.A large number of age 0+ fish occurred in the Shawai and Jiangwai fishing grounds in October of 2003 and 2013.The body lengths of the spawning stock and wintering stock in 2013 were larger than those in 2003,and the monthly sex ratios(female to male) were significantly less than 1 in both years.The monthly distribution of this fish in the southern Yellow Sea was consistent with a previous finding that "the stock migrated between the wintering grounds in the west of Jeju Island and the Lüsi spawning grounds" but tended to move more northward,with the spawning grounds extending outward.In the past decade,body length variation experienced a decline after an increase,rather than a steady decrease.The sex ratio in the single-stick stow net showed a tendency to increase over the decade,but was either less than or more than 1 depending on the fishing gear;therefore,further studies should be conducted to determine the sex structure.  相似文献   

17.
胶州湾大型无脊椎动物数量的多年变化与趋势预测   总被引:7,自引:4,他引:7  
利用1981,1985,1989,1993年5月和8月的定点拖网资料,选出大型无脊椎动物主要种,研究其多年变化规律,并预测其变化趋势,统计结果表明,各年5月份的平均捕获量分别为:1981年1252,1985年,1480,1989年1076,1993年556个/(网.时),呈明显的指数下降趋势,这种趋势符合X=-4275.244e^-0.4302066t 5527.244的规律,每年8月份的资料量分别为:1981年3190,1985年8474和2027,1993年631个/(网.时),呈明显的指下降趋势,这种趋势符合X=-4275.244e^-0.4302066t 5527.244的规律,每年8月份的资源量分别为,1981年3190,1985年8474,1989年2027,1993年631个/(网.时),亦明显的下降,符合X=-1126.9e^-1.202198t 14456.9的规律,以上变化趋势表明,若不采取有关措施,资源将近枯竭。  相似文献   

18.
黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)是全球经济和生态价值最重要的鱼类之一,其资源养护和管理受到各方的高度关注。本文依据年龄结构产量模型研究了印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的资源状态,着重探讨了其生活史特征的不确定性对资源评估结果的影响。研究结果显示,1960-1985年间印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源量保持相对稳定,之后开始逐渐下降,相应的捕捞死亡系数也在2010年之后迅速增加,目前其种群可能存在过度捕捞(F2020/FMSY>1,SSB2020/SSBMSY<1)。印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的资源评估结果对自然死亡系数(M)和亲体-补充量关系陡度参数(h)的改变较为敏感。当h增大时,SSBMSY和初始SSB(即SSB0)的变化较大,分别减少了约25.53万t和34.04万t;F2020/FMSY减小了1.15。当M增大时,F2020/FMSY、SSBMSY...  相似文献   

19.
The shared Torres Strait rock lobster (Panulirus ornatus) fishery provides important income for commercial and traditional fishers in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The lobster stock is first fished in Torres Strait by divers from both countries and then becomes vulnerable to Australian prawn trawlers, followed by Papua New Guinea trawlers during its annual breeding migration. Lobster catch sharing arrangements are governed by the Torres Strait Treaty ratified in 1985, but the sequential trawling of breeding lobsters has been controlled by bilateral agreements. A trawl ban was implemented in 1984 in both countries to conserve the breeding stock, but some trawling has been conducted in the Gulf of Papua since then and there is renewed interest in Papua New Guinea to resume trawling. To evaluate the impact of trawling migratory breeding lobsters on the lobster fishery, a model that combines a cohort depletion model with a stock recruitment relationship was developed in this study. The model showed that when the fishery is fully or over‐exploited by the dive fishery, trawling breeding lobsters would reduce both the spawning stock and the total catch of the fishery. The reduction in catch would increase with increasing fishing mortality. If trawling occurred on the Papua New Guinea side only, a redistribution of catch between Australia and Papua New Guinea would result in a small gain in catch for Papua New Guinea at the expense of the Australian dive fishery. But when fishing mortality reaches a certain level, any trawling in any country will incur catch loss to both countries. For the long‐term sustainability and maximum production of the fishery, regulations should be implemented in both countries under a co‐management scheme of a shared fish stock.  相似文献   

20.
The Eastern Baltic cod stock was until recently below safe biological limits and suffered from high fishing pressure. In most recent years, fishing mortality substantially declined and spawner biomass more than tripled. Similar developments have not been observed for any other depleted cod stock in the North Atlantic during the last few decades. This paper investigates relative impacts of changes in different ecological and management-related drivers, which could have contributed to the rapid recovery of the Eastern Baltic cod. The results show that the success to reduce fishing mortality below management target in 2008 was due to a combination of increased recruitment and improved compliance with TAC. The reversal of the negative trend in biomass and rebuilding of the stock to the present level were largely driven by increased recruitment. Harvest control rules of the multi-annual management plan for setting TACs currently maintain the fishing mortality at a low level, which allows the stock to accumulate biomass and further accelerate its recovery. Relatively strong incoming year-classes and recently better control over removals distinguish the Eastern Baltic cod from other depleted European cod stocks, which have not shown similar positive trends in recent years. Sound management measures and compliance to those as well as favourable biological conditions are required for a successful stock recovery.  相似文献   

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