变系数分位数回归模型的贝叶斯推断

主要考察一种基于非对称Laplace分布的变系数分位数回归模型,并利用可逆跳的MCMC算法来估计了变系数函数。这种估计方法充分考虑了每一个变系数函数的差异性,允许不同的系数函数有不同的节点个数和位置。本文最后以具有典型性的波士顿房价作为变系数分位数回归的贝叶斯估计的例子,说明了该模型在现实问题中应用的合理性。     

福建九龙江口不同林龄拉关木人工林凋落物组成及季节动态

收集福建九龙江口人工红树林拉关木(Laguncularia racemosa)中的4、6、8年生3种不同林龄植被全年的凋落物,测定其数量、组成及季节动态.结果表明,4、6、8年生拉关木林年凋落量分别为10 930.1、12 085.3、13 723.4 kg/hm2.各林龄拉关木林的凋落物组成均以落叶为主,4、6、8年生拉关木林的凋落叶量分别占年总凋落量的86.16%、77.47%、81.30%,落枝、落花、落果在年凋落物中所占的比例较小.各林龄拉关木林年凋落物量均显示出明显的季节动态,其季节变化曲线均呈双峰型,4年生和6年生的拉关木林均在5月和9月出现峰值,而8年生的拉关木林则在4月和9月出现峰值;各年龄段的拉关木林的落叶和总凋落量变化模式相同,而落枝、落花、落果的变化模式不尽相同.研究结果可为河口湿地生态系统拉关木人工林的经营管理提供参考.     

变参数赤潮藻类生长模型的非线性动力分析研究

在对一个营养盐和赤潮藻类摄食模型进行非线性分析的基础上,提出了含有变参数的赤潮藻类生长模型。模型中用一个周期阶跃函数来近似模拟了藻类生长率参数,并对此模型做了数值模拟。结果表明,引入变参数后的模型更能体现藻类生长的季节性特点,和实际情况符合更好。     

不同尺度DDM的深度保证率变化规律研究

针对当前高密度多波束水深数据抽稀后所构建数字水深模型(digital depth model,DDM)的航海安全性缺少估计这一问题,分别以最浅点法、最近点法和平均值法3种常用方法抽稀水深数据并构建DDM,在此基础上,分析不同抽稀方法所构建DDM随尺度变化的深度保证率变化规律,采用统计分析的方法建立DDM深度保证率与抽稀尺度、海底地形复杂因子之间的数学回归模型。实验表明:该回归模型不仅可用于估算基于不同抽稀方法所构建DDM的深度保证率,也为确定满足适合的DDM深度保证率所需要的抽稀尺度提供了理论依据。     

分层海底反射信号的一种波形分段技术

从分层海底反射回来的水声回波信号包含了许多海底未知的重要信息,其信号中统计特性突然变化而形成的边界,反映了海底的深度和分层海底的层数及各层的相对深度.用一种波形分段技术来检测这些边界显得很有效.在这种接续的波形分段算法中,采用自回归模型和广义似然比检验方法来检测波形中突变的边界.这种技术只要求低阶数自回归模型,下降了计算时间.     

基于长短时记忆神经网络的辽东湾海冰延伸期预报方法研究

通过合成分析和回归分析,研究了影响辽东湾海冰变化的局地和大尺度环流因子,并基于一种深度学习方法——长短时记忆神经网络(LSTM),建立了辽东湾海冰延伸期预报模型。结果表明,LSTM模型能较好地预报出未来15 d辽东湾海冰的总体发展趋势、浮冰外缘线离岸距离的振荡变化及峰值发生时间等关键特征,1～15 d预报的平均绝对误差为4.1～5.7 n mile~①,均方根误差为5.4～7.5 n mile。LSTM模型的预报时效可达到15 d,较目前海冰数值预报(5～7 d)的时效延长一倍,且运算速度极快,能够节省大量的计算资源和时间成本。该模型的建立为利用深度学习方法开展海洋和气象预报提供了一种新思路。     

海口湾可见光遥感测深方法研究

以海口湾为研究区,利用Landsat资料进行可见光遥感测深方法研究。采用NDWI、MNDWI、EWI、NWI指数的阈值分割法进行水陆分离,结果表明NDWI指数更适合海口湾。选取与水深相关性比较好的反射率因子TM2、TM3、TM1/TM2、TM1/TM3,采用目前常见的可见光遥感测深方法,建立了线性、对数、幂指数、指数测深模型,与实测水深的比较结果表明TM1/TM3的指数测深模型在0-10 m水深的平均绝对误差为1.67 m,在实际应用中有参考价值。此外,建立了TM2、TM3、TM1/TM2、TM1/TM3的二次多项式测深模型以及对数二次多项式测深模型,建立了它们的二元和四元线性、对数测深模型,还建立了它们的分段函数测深模型,与实测水深的比较结果表明,二次多项式测深模型优于线性测深模型,对数二次多项式测深模型优于对数测深模型,分段函数测深模型优于非分段函数测深模型。     

基于时间序列的海洋赤潮灾害特征分析

以1977-2012年中国海赤潮的年发生频率及2001-2012年赤潮的月发生频率数据资料为基础,建立赤潮事件的年发生频率和月发生频率时间序列。赤潮的年发生频率与时间的分段回归拟合效果较好,月频率的季节性最大值在5月(约18.22),随机波动的大小随时间序列逐步增加,波动峰值主要出现在5-7月。利用Holt指数平滑法和Holt-Winter指数平滑法分别对赤潮事件的年发生频率和月发生频率进行预测,结果表明2013-2020年赤潮的年发生频率呈年平均增加1次的缓慢趋势上升,2013-2016年5-7月份为赤潮高发期,峰值出现在5月,基本稳定在25次左右。     

基于时间序列的海洋赤潮灾害特征分析（英文）

以1977-2012年中国海赤潮的年发生频率及2001-2012年赤潮的月发生频率数据资料为基础,建立赤潮事件的年发生频率和月发生频率时间序列。赤潮的年发生频率与时间的分段回归拟合效果较好,月频率的季节性最大值在5月(约18.22),随机波动的大小随时间序列逐步增加,波动峰值主要出现在5-7月。利用Holt指数平滑法和Holt-Winter指数平滑法分别对赤潮事件的年发生频率和月发生频率进行预测,结果表明2013-2020年赤潮的年发生频率呈年平均增加1次的缓慢趋势上升,2013-2016年5-7月份为赤潮高发期,峰值出现在5月,基本稳定在25次左右。     

大型海藻龙须菜（Gracilaria lemaneiformis）藻段凋落分解对环境的影响及细菌群落演替特征

为解析大型海藻龙须菜(Gracilaria lemaneiformis)阴干藻段凋落分解对环境的影响及细菌群落演替规律,本文通过室内模拟凋落实验,分析了龙须菜凋落物分解过程中营养盐含量变化及藻体、水体、沉积物细菌群落结构特征。结果发现,龙须菜阴干藻段在较短时间内迅速凋落分解,50 d时,藻体分解率达到83.5%。凋落过程中,水体总有机碳、总氮、总磷的含量分别较初始时升高了241.2%、229.8%和101.3%。水体溶解氧含量从初始的1.87 mg/L降至第50天的0.32 mg/L,降幅达82.9%。凋落过程中,龙须菜藻体附着细菌数量维持在10⁷ copy/g。凋落物藻体附着细菌丰富度与多样性在凋落分解过程中持续升高。优势菌群落结构变化受水体总有机碳、总氮、总磷和溶解氧含量影响显著,其中浮霉菌门、螺旋体门、厚壁菌门、δ-变形菌相对丰度不断上升,拟杆菌门、α-变形菌、γ-变形菌相对丰度不断下降。凋落过程中,凋落物藻体附着细菌中与代谢相关的功能基因丰度持续下降。结果表明,龙须菜藻体凋落会导致水体营养盐浓度升高,浮霉菌门、螺旋体门、厚壁菌门、δ-变形菌等细菌对龙须菜的...     

Trophic structure and flows of energy in the Huizache–Caimanero lagoon complex on the Pacific coast of Mexico

The Huizache–Caimanero coastal lagoon complex on the Pacific coast of Mexico supports an important shrimp fishery and is one of the most productive systems in catch per unit area of this resource. Four other less important fish groups are also exploited. In this study, we integrated the available information of the system into a mass-balance trophic model to describe the ecosystem structure and flows of energy using the E approach. The model includes 26 functional groups consisting of 15 fish groups, seven invertebrate groups, macrophytes, phytoplankton, and a detritus group. The resulting model was consistent as indicated by the output parameters. According to the overall pedigree index (0.75), which measures the quality of the input data on a scale from 0 to 1, it is a high quality model. Results indicate that zooplankton, microcrustaceans, and polychaetes are the principal link between trophic level (TL) one (primary producers and detritus) and consumers of higher TLs. Most production from macrophytes flows to detritus, and phytoplankton production is incorporated into the food web by zooplankton. Half of the flow from TL one to the next level come from detritus, which is an important energy source not only for several groups in the ecosystem but also for fisheries, as shown by mixed trophic impacts. The Huizache–Caimanero complex has the typical structure of tropical coastal lagoons and estuaries. The TL of consumers ranges from 2.0 to 3.6 because most groups are composed of juveniles, which use the lagoons as a nursery or protection area. Most energy flows were found in the lower part of the trophic web.     

Study on Dynamic Characteristics of Hydraulic Pumping Unit on Offshore Platform

A new technology of offshore oil rod pumping production is developed for offshore heavy oil recovery. A new type of miniature hydraulic pumping unit with long-stroke, low pumping speed and compact structure is designed based on the spatial characteristics of offshore platforms. By combining the strengths of sinusoidal velocity curve and trapezoidal velocity curve, a kinematical model of the acceleration, the velocity and displacement of the pumping unit''s hanging point is established. The results show that the pumping unit has good kinematic characteristics of smooth motion and small dynamic load. The multi-degree-of-freedom dynamic model of the single-well pumping unit is established. The first and second order natural frequencies of the sucker rod string subsystem and the pumping unit subsystem are studied. The results show that the first and the second order natural frequencies among the pumping rod string, pumping unit-platform subsystem and the dynamic excitation have differences over 5 times from each other, indicating that resonance phenomenon will not appear during the operation and the dynamic requirements for field use are met in the system.     

防波堤椭圆形桶式基础结构的贯入受力特性实验研究

某工程拟在深水软土地基上修筑防波堤,为了尽量减少地基处理充分利用天然地基,创新性设计出一种轻型薄壁的预制防波堤结构,其挡浪部分为直立薄壁圆筒,基础部分则为倒扣的薄壁椭圆形桶,并且椭圆形下桶为外壁和内隔板分成9个格室,防波堤结构浮运至指定位置后,拟采用负压工法施工安装就位。这种新型防波堤结构为国内外首次提出,其下沉施工设计尚无规范可循,为此开展了土工离心模型试验,在模型加速过程中模拟了椭圆形下桶基础在淤泥层中的自重下沉,之后利用新研发了一种大行程作动加载装置给椭圆形下桶施加下推力,让其继续向下贯入直至穿越整个淤泥层,以模拟负压工法的贯入下沉。试验测量了下桶贯入下沉过程中的推力与贯入位移,还尝试测量了桶壁和内隔板断面的压应变,由此分析了下桶基础的下沉总阻力、桶壁摩擦力以及截面压应变随贯入位移的变化。结果发现,这些曲线均出现了转折点,根据转折点对应的下沉总阻力确定了椭圆形下桶基础贯入过程所遭遇的临界下沉总阻力值,据此估算了负压工法中所需施加的压力差。     

Detritus Rolling Down a Vertical Cliff of the Ligurian Sea (Italy): The Écological Role in Hard Bottom Communities

Abstract. The detritus rolling down a vertical cliff was studied at Portofino Promontory (Ligurian Sea, Italy) at 16 m depth (January 1988- January 1989). The large amount of collected sediment is mainly due to the position of the traps; they collected not only the sedimenting material, but also the detritus rolling down along the cliff. The amount of sediment matter is 7 times greater in winter than in summer, showing a good correlation with rough seas and rain that cause a "mechanical cleaning" of animal and plant debris (Sérpulid tubes, shells, exuvias. leaves) along the cliff.
The Total Suspended Matter (TSM) in the water column shows maximum values in March and September. The organic fraction has an average concentration of 0.81 mg 1^-l. The phytoplanktonic biomass, measured as Chi a , shows an annual cycle with a peak in spring (1–2.7μg·l^-1). while in other periods of the year the value is about 0.3-0.5 μg·1^-1. A significant relationship was found between organic detritus in the collected sédiments and the Chi a in the water column. The great influence of the rocky wall detritus on the normal trend of the TSM in the coastal water column is pointed out.     

基于参考压缩线的砂土压缩模型

等向压缩线不唯一及V-lgp空间内非线性变化是砂土压缩模型构建过程中存在的两大问题.通过分析砂土的等向压缩曲线变化特征,结合其力学特性提出了与临界状态线在0点相交并与其它等向压缩线在高压下相互汇聚的等向压缩线作为参考压缩线.采用ln(V-Vmin)-(p/pa)ξ空间内线性函数来描述参考压缩线与临界状态线.利用当前体积...     

Rosenbrock methods in biogeochemical modelling – A comparison to Runge–Kutta methods and modified Patankar schemes

Modelling biogeochemical processes in the surface ocean is still a difficult task due to the challenge to identify the most convenient integration scheme for the reaction terms. The scheme is expected to deal with the model characteristics of positivity and conservativity as well as with the different time scales involved, which occur e.g., whenever photochemical reactions take place in the water column.This paper presents a numerical comparison of the Rosenbrock methods, ROS3 and ROS4, often used for solving chemical reactions, to the explicit fourth-order Runge–Kutta method and the unconditionally positive modified Patankar schemes. Following their successful application in air chemistry, we here test the hypothesis that the Rosenbrock methods are an optimal choice for marine biogeochemical modelling in terms of efficiency and accuracy. In this study the schemes are compared in terms of runtime and accuracy and are applied to two test cases of different complexity: a zero-dimensional nutrient–phytoplankton–detritus (NPD)-type model and a one-dimensional nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (NPZD)-type model. Applying the Rosenbrock methods to the simple NPD model shows their advantage over the other applied methods. They give the most accurate results of all solvers, especially for large step sizes, in less computing time due to their semi-implicitness and adaptive step sizing. On the contrary, for the one-dimensional NPZD model problem this is only the case in comparison to the Runge–Kutta solver, while their performance is worse than that of the second-order modified Patankar scheme. They need longer runtimes than the latter ones in order to achieve similarly accurate results. However, the modified Patankar schemes are not conservative if the system reactions contain more than one source compound. Thus, for more complex marine biogeochemical problems, it is recommended to apply the Rosenbrock methods while for simpler models the use of the second-order modified Patankar method is still the best alternative.     

The effect of water transport on nitrogen flow through a kelp-bed community

A simulation model is used to investigate possible ecological effects of up- and downwelling on nitrogen flows through a kelp-bed food web off the Cape Peninsula, South Africa. The model depicts the flow of nitrogen, which is often limiting in marine ecosystems, from kelps, other macrophytes and phytoplankton, through filter-feeders to carnivores, with a feedback loop via faeces and bacteria to detritus and filter-feeders. When modelled as a closed system, bacteria associated with detritus and animal faeces form a large component of the particulate nitrogen available to filter-feeders, and the faeces feedback loop dominates nitrogen flow. When measured rates of water transport are incorporated into the model, bacteria have little opportunity to accumulate before being transported out of the system. Animal faeces and kelp detritus are the dominant filter-feeder food components under upwelling conditions, whereas phytoplankton is the major contributor to particulate organic nitrogen under downwelling conditions. When realistic pulses of upwelling/downwelling derived from wind indices are used as model input, filter-feeders are shown to decline during the summer upwelling season when much potential food is advected out of the system, and they increase during the winter when downwelling conditions are more prevalent, bringing in nitrogen-rich phytoplankton from the blooms developing offshore.     

A Preliminary Trophic Model of the Continental Shelf, South-western Gulf of Mexico

A preliminary mass-balance trophic model was constructed to determine the flow of energy in a community of fish and invertebrates on the continental shelf of the south-western Gulf of Mexico. Input parameters were taken from the literature, except for the biomass of fish groups which was obtained from trawl surveys in the study area. The model consists of 12 fish groups, five invertebrate groups, phytoplankton and detritus. Results indicate an imbalance between primary production and consumption, with only about 10% of primary production being consumed in the water column. Most of the primary production is exported to detritus which forms the basis of the food-web, with a detritivory/herbivory ratio of 2·5. Benthic invertebrates play a significant role in transferring energy from detritus to higher trophic levels. Eight discrete trophic levels were found, with very reduced flow at levels higher than the fifth. The highest fractional trophic level is 4·3, and consists of sharks. Analysis of mixed trophic impacts showed that detritus and lower trophic levels have a significant positive impact on other groups in the system. Mean transfer efficiency is 9·2%. Some whole system properties are also given. Of net primary production, 6·7% is required to sustain current catch levels, suggesting that the resources in this area are fully exploited.     

Carbon cycling and POC turnover in the mesopelagic zone of the ocean: Insights from a simple model

Carbon budgets of the mesopelagic zone are poorly constrained, highlighting our lack of understanding of the biota that inhabit this environment and their role in the cycling and sequestering of carbon in the deep ocean. A simple food web model of the mesopelagic zone is presented that traces the turnover of particulate organic carbon (POC), supplied as sinking detritus, through to its respiration by the biota via three pathways: colonization and solubilization of detritus by attached bacteria, production of free-living bacteria following losses of solubilization products during particle degradation, and consumption by detritivorous zooplankton. The relative consumption of detritus by attached bacteria was initially specified as 76%, with the remaining 24% by detritivores. Highlighting an asymmetry between consumption and respiration, the resulting predicted share of total respiration due to bacteria was 84.7%, with detritivores accounting for just 6.6% (with 6.5% and 2.2% by bacterivores and higher zooplankton, respectively). Bacteria thus dominated respiration and thereby acted as the principal sink for POC supplied to the mesopelagic zone, whereas zooplankton mainly recycled carbon back to the base of the food web as detritus or dissolved organic carbon rather than respiring it to CO₂. Estimates of respiration are therefore not necessarily a reliable indicator of the relative roles of bacteria and zooplankton in consuming and processing POC in the mesopelagic zone of the ocean. The work highlighted a number of major unknowns, including how little we know in general about the dynamics and metabolic budgets of bacteria and zooplankton that inhabit the mesopelagic zone and, specifically, the degree to which the solubilized products of enzymatic hydrolysis of POC by attached bacteria are lost to the surrounding water, the magnitude and factors responsible for bacterial growth efficiency, the role of microbes in the nutrition of detritivores, and the recycling processes by which zooplankton return what they consume to the food web as detritus and dissolved organic matter.     

Probabilistic model for wave forces acting on a cylinder in random waves

Generally, the sea-state (random waves) is best described by a wave spectrum. A number of statistical models for wave spectra has been well established and a sea-state can be specified. Once the specified sea-state is established, the corresponding model for wave forces acting on a single cylinder or a group of cylinders can be formulated. Since peak force is of more practical value, a multivariate or joint probability density function for wave forces has been developed for the peak force distribution of wave forces. This theoretical force model derives the tri-variate probability density function P(F, F′, F″), where F is the peak force defined by Morison equation. This model is of wide-band in nature and is tested by wave flume experiments.