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1.
Calculations were performed with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to study the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sustained multi-millennial greenhouse warming. Use was made of fully dynamic 3D thermomechanical ice-sheet models bidirectionally coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model. Two 3,000-year experiments were evaluated following forcing scenarios with atmospheric CO2 concentration increased to two and four times the pre-industrial value, and held constant thereafter. In the high concentration scenario the model shows a sustained mean annual warming of up to 10°C in both polar regions. This leads to an almost complete disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet after 3,000 years, almost entirely caused by increased surface melting. Significant volume loss of the Antarctic ice sheet takes many centuries to initiate due to the thermal inertia of the Southern Ocean but is equivalent to more than 4 m of global sea-level rise by the end of simulation period. By that time, surface conditions along the East Antarctic ice sheet margin take on characteristics of the present-day Greenland ice sheet. West Antarctic ice shelves have thinned considerably from subshelf melting and grounding lines have retreated over distances of several 100 km, especially for the Ross ice shelf. In the low concentration scenario, corresponding to a local warming of 3?C4°C, polar ice-sheet melting proceeds at a much lower rate. For the first 1,200 years, the Antarctic ice sheet is even slightly larger than today on account of increased accumulation rates but contributes positively to sea-level rise after that. The Greenland ice sheet loses mass at a rate equivalent to 35 cm of global sea level rise during the first 1,000 years increasing to 150 cm during the last 1,000 years. For both scenarios, ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet is still accelerating after 3,000 years despite a constant greenhouse gas forcing after the first 70?C140 years of the simulation.  相似文献   

2.
利用ICESat数据解算南极冰盖冰雪质量变化   总被引:5,自引:4,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
南极冰盖冰雪质量变化反映了全球气候变化,并且直接影响着全球海平面变化.ICESat测高卫星的主要任务之一就是要确定南北两极冰盖的质量变化情况并评估其对全球海平面变化的影响.本文利用2003年10月至2008年12月的ICESat测高数据,针对南极DEM分辨率有限的特殊性,通过求解坡度改正值,解决重复轨道地面脚点不重合的问题,计算了南极大陆(86°S以北区域,后文所述南极冰盖均不包括86°S以南区域)在这5年里的冰雪质量变化情况,得到东南极冰盖的质量变化为-18±20Gt/a,西南极-26±6Gt/a,南极冰盖的冰雪质量变化为-44±21Gt/a,对全球海平面上升的影响约为0.12mm·a~(-1).解算结果表明,南极冰盖质量亏损主要集中在西南极阿蒙森海岸附近冰川以及东南极波因塞特角区域.  相似文献   

3.
This article describes the characteristics of debris obtained from the basal ice in a borehole in the Agassiz ice cap, Ellesmere Island, Northwest Territories by the Canadian Polar Continental Shelf Project in 1979. The debris appears to have been incorporated by basal freezing at a time when the base of the glacier upstream was near the pressure melting point and some 19°C warmer than at the present site. Such an occurrence may be explained by a different flow regime, by a thicker ice sheet, by the influence of irregular bedrock topography on basal ice conditions at some stage in the past, or by a combination of these factors.  相似文献   

4.
Thick supraglacial debris layers often have an undulating, hummocky topography that influences the lateral transport of debris and meltwater and provides basins for supraglacial ponds. The role of ablation and other processes associated with supraglacial debris in giving rise to this hummocky topography is poorly understood. Characterizing hummocky topography is a first step towards understanding the feedbacks driving the evolution of debris-covered glacier surfaces and their potential impacts on mass balance, hydrology and glacier dynamics. Here we undertake a geomorphological assessment of the hummocky topography on five debris-covered glaciers in the Everest region of the central Himalaya. We characterize supraglacial hummocks through statistical analyses of their vertical relief and horizontal geometry. Our results establish supraglacial hummocks as a distinct landform. We find that a typical hummock has an elongation ratio of 1.1:1 in the direction of ice flow, length of 214 ± 109 m and width of 192 ± 88 m. Hummocky topography has a greater amplitude across-glacier (15.4 ± 10.9 m) compared to along the glacier flow line (12.6 ± 8.3 m). Consequently, hummock slopes are steeper in the across-glacier direction (8.7 ± 4.3°) than in the direction of ice flow (5.6 ± 4.0°). Longer, wider and higher-amplitude hummocks are found on larger glaciers. We postulate that directional anisotropy in the hummock topography arises because, while the pattern of differential ablation driving topography evolution is moderated by processes including the gravitational redistribution of debris across the glacier surface, it also inherits an orientation preference from the distribution of englacial debris in the underlying ice. Our morphometric data inform future efforts to model these interactions, which should account for additional factors such as the genesis of supraglacial ponds and ice cliffs and their impact on differential ablation.  相似文献   

5.
We consider the thermodynamic and fluid dynamic processes that occur during subglacial effusive eruptions. Subglacial eruptions typically generate catastrophic floods (jökulhlaups) due to melting of ice by lava and generation of a large water cavity. We consider the heat transfer from basaltic and rhyolitic lava eruptions to the ice for typical ranges of magma discharge and geometry of subglacial lavas in Iceland. Our analysis shows that the heat flux out of cooling lava is large enough to sustain vigorous natural convection in the surrounding meltwater. In subglacial eruptions the temperature difference driving convection is in the range 10–100??°C. Average temperature of the meltwater must exceed 4??°C and is usually substantially greater. We calculate melting rates of the walls of the ice cavity in the range 1–40?m/day, indicating that large subglacial lakes can form rapidly as observed in the 1918 eruption of Katla and the 1996 eruption of Gjálp fissure in Vatnajökull. The volume changes associated with subglacial eruptions can cause large pressure changes in the developing ice cavity. These pressure changes can be much larger than those associated with variation of bedrock and glacier surface topography. Previous models of water-cavity stability based on hydrostatic and equilibrium conditions may not be applicable to water cavities produced rapidly in volcanic eruptions. Energy released by cooling of basaltic lava at the temperature of 1200??°C results in a volume deficiency due to volume difference between ice and water, provided that heat exchange efficiency is greater than approximately 80%. A negative pressure change inhibits escape of water, allowing large cavities to build up. Rhyolitic eruptions and basaltic eruptions, with less than approximately 80% heat exchange efficiency, cause positive pressure changes promoting continual escape of meltwater. The pressure changes in the water cavity can cause surface deformation of the ice. Laboratory experiments were carried out to investigate the development of a water cavity by melting ice from a finite source area at its base. The results confirm that the water cavity develops by convective heat transfer.  相似文献   

6.
Water temperature is a key abiotic variable that modulates both water chemistry and aquatic life in rivers and streams. For this reason, numerous water temperature models have been developed in recent years. In this paper, a k‐nearest neighbour model (KNN) is proposed and validated to simulate and eventually produce a one‐day forecast of mean water temperature on the Moisie River, a watercourse with an important salmon population in eastern Canada. Numerous KNN model configurations were compared by selecting different attributes and testing different weight combinations for neighbours. It was found that the best model uses attributes that include water temperature from the two previous days and an indicator of seasonality (day of the year) to select nearest neighbours. Three neighbours were used to calculate the estimated temperature, and the weighting combination that yielded the best results was an equal weight on all three nearest neighbours. This nonparametric model provided lower Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE = 1·57 °C), Higher Nash coefficient (NTD = 0·93) and lower Relative Bias (RB = ? 1·5%) than a nonlinear regression model (RMSE = 2·45 °C, NTD = 0·83, RB = ? 3%). The k‐nearest neighbour model appears to be a promising tool to simulate of forecast water temperature where long time series are available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Following a previous attempt to reproduce miniature sorted patterns on a level surface, we report the results of a full‐scale laboratory simulation on frost sorting produced by needle ice activity on inclined surfaces. Four models, with different slope gradients (5°, 7°, 9°, 11°), were designed. Stones 6 mm in diameter placed in a grid covered 20% of the surface of frost‐susceptible water‐saturated soil. These models were subjected to 20–40 freeze–thaw cycles between 10°C and ?5°C in 12 hours. The evolution of surface patterns was visually traced by photogrammetry. Needle ice growth and collapse induced downslope movement and concentrations of stones. A model produced incipient sorted circles on a 5° slope, whereas it resulted in three distinct sorted stripes on a 7° slope. The average diameter or spacing of these forms is 9.7–19.4 cm, comparable to those in the field dominated by diurnal freeze–thaw cycles. Surface parallel displacements of stone markers were traced with motion analysis software. The observed downslope stone displacements agree with those expected assuming that surface soil and stones move by repeated heaving perpendicular to the surface and vertical settlement due to gravity, although the growth of curved needle adds complexity to the overall displacements. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
A new dry gas extraction and analysis method for small (1 cm3) ice samples is presented. The extraction device, cooled to ?20°C, contains two movable steel needle matrices for crushing the ice. During the crushing process the gas escaping from the ice sample is continuously analyzed for CO2 with an infrared laserspectrometer. This method enables a fast measurement (few minutes) of the CO2 concentration in the air bubbles with high spatial resolution in the ice core and a minimum potential contamination. An important CO2 contamination source due to an interaction of water vapour with surfaces is shortly discussed.The reproducibility of extraction and analysis is ±2%. We analyzed CO2 concentrations in the trapped air from different ice cores originating from the Greenland ice sheet and from Antarctica.  相似文献   

9.
A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM‐WQ‐I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice‐on, ice‐off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice‐on dates and earlier ice‐off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of ?10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes.  相似文献   

10.
Longitudinal velocity patterns and bed morphology interaction in a rill   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Present‐day understanding of rill dynamics is hampered by a lack of detailed data on velocity distributions in rills. The latter are dif?cult to collect with traditional techniques due to the very low water depths and the relatively high ?ow velocities in rills. The objectives of this paper were to investigate the feasibility of miniaturized acoustic Doppler velocimeter (mADV) measurements in rill ?ow and to explore longitudinal variations in ?ow velocities and their relationship with rill bed morphology. Detailed data on longitudinal ?ow velocity were required to achieve these objectives. A 1·8 m long rill was formed freely in a ?ume at 5° slope and 0·001 m3 s?1 discharge. Rill topography was characterized by an alternation of steps and pools. The ?ume surface was then ?xed to preserve rill roughness. A topographical scanning of the entire ?ume surface was made. Velocity was measured with a mADV along the rill, and at different depths. Flow depth in a longitudinal direction was also measured using an elevation gauge. A strong relationship exists between rill topography and ?ow hydraulics. Over steps, ?ow was unidirectional and rapidly accelerating until a threshold Froude number (Fn) value between 1·3 and 1·7 was reached and a hydraulic jump occurred leading to the formation of a pool. In the pool, the ?ow pattern was multidirectional and complex. The ?ow was subcritical when leaving the pool and accelerated over the next step until the threshold Froude number value was again reached. Energy loss in the rill was concentrated in the pools, mainly due to the action of a hydraulic jump. This mechanism of energy dissipation appeared to be an essential factor in rill formation and bedform evolution. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Mountain‐range topography is determined by the complex interplay between tectonics and climate. However, often it is not clear to what extent climate forces topographic evolution and how past climatic episodes are reflected in present‐day relief. The Andes are a tectonically active mountain belt encompassing various climatic zones with pronounced differences in rainfall, erosion, and glacier extent under similar plate‐boundary conditions. In the central to south‐western Andes, climatic zones range from hyperarid desert with mean annual rainfall of 5 mm/a (22·5°S) to year‐round humidity with 2500 mm/a (40°S). The Andes thus provide a unique setting for investigating the relationship between tectonics, climate, and topography. We present an analysis of 120 catchments along the western Andean watersheds between 15·5° and 41·5°S, which is based on SRTMV3‐90m data and new medium‐resolution rainfall, tropical rainfall measurement mission (TRMM) dataset. For each basin, we extracted geometry, relief, and climate parameters to test whether Andean topography shows a climatic imprint and to analyze how climate influences relief. Our data document that elevation and relief decrease with increasing rainfall and descending snowline elevation. Furthermore, we show that local relief reaches high values of 750 m in a zone between 28°S to 35°S. During Pleistocene glacial stages this region was affected by the northward shifting southern hemisphere Westerlies, which provided moisture for valley‐glacier formation and extended glacial coverage as well as glacial erosion. In contrast, the southern regions between 35°S to 40°S receive higher rainfall and have a lower local relief of 200 m, probably related to an increased drainage density. We distinguish two different, climatically‐controlled mechanisms shaping topography: (1) fluvial erosion by prolonged channel‐hillslope coupling, which smoothes relief, and (2) erosion by valley glaciers that generates relief. Finally, Our results suggests that the catchment‐scale relief of the Andes between 28°S to 35°S is characterized by a pronounced transient component reflecting past climatic conditions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Thermokarst lakes cover > 20% of the landscape throughout much of the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) with shallow lakes freezing solid (grounded ice) and deeper lakes maintaining perennial liquid water (floating ice). Thus, lake depth relative to maximum ice thickness (1·5–2·0 m) represents an important threshold that impacts permafrost, aquatic habitat, and potentially geomorphic and hydrologic behaviour. We studied coupled hydrogeomorphic processes of 13 lakes representing a depth gradient across this threshold of maximum ice thickness by analysing remotely sensed, water quality, and climatic data over a 35‐year period. Shoreline erosion rates due to permafrost degradation ranged from < 0·2 m/year in very shallow lakes (0·4 m) up to 1·8 m/year in the deepest lakes (2·6 m). This pattern of thermokarst expansion masked detection of lake hydrologic change using remotely sensed imagery except for the shallowest lakes with stable shorelines. Changes in the surface area of these shallow lakes tracked interannual variation in precipitation minus evaporation (P ? EL) with periods of full and nearly dry basins. Shorter‐term (2004–2008) specific conductance data indicated a drying pattern across lakes of all depths consistent with the long‐term record for only shallow lakes. Our analysis suggests that grounded‐ice lakes are ice‐free on average 37 days longer than floating‐ice lakes resulting in a longer period of evaporative loss and more frequent negative P ? EL. These results suggest divergent hydrogeomorphic responses to a changing Arctic climate depending on the threshold created by water depth relative to maximum ice thickness in ACP lakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Experiments are described in which chalk cubes were soaked in solutions of either sodium chloride, sodium sulphate, or magnesium sulphate at concentrations of 5·5 per cent and 12·5 per cent, or in a mixed solution of sodium chloride and sodium sulphate or in distilled water. After removal of excess liquid, the cubes were subjected to six freeze–thaw cycles with temperatures ranging from either +15 to ?10°C or +15 to ?30°C. The results confirm that frost weathering can be enhanced by the presence of certain salts, but the extent of weathering was much less than that previously reported for samples frozen totally immersed in the same liquids. Evidence is presented which suggests that salt crystallization is the major weathering process operative when non–immersed samples are frozen but a combination of frost and salt weathering operates when fully immersed samples are frozen.  相似文献   

14.
The paper uses a case study in Scotland to examine the amount and processes of landscape modification by Quaternary ice sheets. There is an inverse correlation between the distribution of landforms of glacial erosion and pre-glacial landscape remnants in northeast Scotland. The implication is that in places ice sheets can preserve a pre-glacial landscape unscathed, while elsewhere they remove the pre-glacial weathered rock. The location of glacial protection or erosion is strongly influenced by the topography and its influence on former ice sheet flow and basal thermal regime. The classic glacially eroded landscape of areal scouring can be produced by the removal of only 10–50 m of weathered rock. Furthermore rock basins, often regarded as the hallmark of glacial erosion, may be directly inherited from the pre-glacial pattern of deep weathering.  相似文献   

15.
Subglacial bed conditions are key to understanding ice stream behaviour and evolution, with bed roughness re?ecting substrate composition and ?ow resistance. Here we present an analysis of bed roughness in the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica from airborne radio‐echo sounding data. The ice streams are associated generally with low bed roughness values, which decrease downstream. The bed of the slow‐?owing Ice Stream C (~10 000 km2) is also characterized by being smooth at all scales (wavelengths ranging from 5 km to in excess of 40 km). Furthermore, the bed is smooth either side of Ice Stream C. This suggests the location of the ice stream is controlled by internal ice sheet dynamics rather than by bed morphology. If the ice stream were encouraged to migrate laterally, when active, there would be little resistance offered by the subglacial morphology. Other inter‐ice stream regions are rough, however, indicating a subglacial topographic in?uence on ice stream position. Bed roughness increases up‐?ow of ice streams, which, unless the bed is modi?ed, may limit the inland migration of these systems. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Hagen Koch  Uwe Grünewald 《水文研究》2010,24(26):3826-3836
Daily stream temperatures are needed in a number of analyses. Such analyses might focus on aquatic organisms or industrial activities. To protect aquatic systems, industrial activities, for example, water withdrawals or discharges, are sometimes restricted. To evaluate where new industrial settings should be placed or if climate change will affect already existing industrial settings, the simulation of stream temperature is needed. Stream temperature models with weekly or monthly time scale might not be sufficient for this kind of analysis. Different regression models to simulate daily stream temperature for the river Elbe (Germany) are developed and their performance is estimated. For the calibration period the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) for the simplest model is 0·97, and the root mean squared error (RMSE) is 1·48 °C. For the most sophisticated model the NSC also is 0·97. However, the RMSE is 1·32 °C. For the validation period the NSC for the simplest model is 0·96, and the RMSE is 1·45 °C. The NSC for the most sophisticated model is 0·97, and the RMSE is 1·25 °C. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Rock glaciers, a feature associated with at least discontinuous permafrost, provide important topoclimatic information. Active and inactive rock glaciers can be used to model current permafrost distribution. Relict rock glacier locations provide paleoclimatic information to infer past conditions. Future warmer climates could cause permafrost zones to shrink and initiate slope instability hazards such as debris flows or rockslides, thus modeling change remains imperative. This research examines potential past and future permafrost distribution in the Colorado Front Range by calibrating an existing permafrost model using a standard adiabatic rate for mountains (0·5 °C per 100 m) for a 4 °C range of cooler and warmer temperatures. According to the model, permafrost currently covers about 12 per cent (326·1 km2) of the entire study area (2721·5 km2). In a 4 °C cooler climate 73·7 per cent (2004·4 km2) of the study area could be covered by permafrost, whereas in a 4°C warmer climate almost no permafrost would be found. Permafrost would be reduced severely by 93·9 per cent (a loss of 306·2 km2) in a 2·0 °C warmer climate; however, permafrost will likely respond slowly to change. Relict rock glacier distribution indicates that mean annual air temperature (MAAT) was once at least some 3·0 to 4·0 °C cooler during the Pleistocene, with permafrost extending some 600–700 m lower than today. The model is effective at identifying temperature sensitive areas for future monitoring; however, other feedback mechanisms such as precipitation are neglected. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Ice streams are integral components of an ice sheet's mass balance and directly impact on sea level. Their flow is governed by processes at the ice‐bed interface which create landforms that, in turn, modulate ice stream dynamics through their influence on bed topography and basal shear stresses. Thus, ice stream geomorphology is critical to understanding and modelling ice streams and ice sheet dynamics. This paper reviews developments in our understanding of ice stream geomorphology from a historical perspective, with a focus on the extent to which studies of modern and palaeo‐ice streams have converged to take us from a position of near‐complete ignorance to a detailed understanding of their bed morphology. During the 1970s and 1980s, our knowledge was limited and largely gleaned from geophysical investigations of modern ice stream beds in Antarctica. Very few palaeo‐ice streams had been identified with any confidence. During the 1990s, however, glacial geomorphologists began to recognise their distinctive geomorphology, which included distinct patterns of highly elongated mega‐scale glacial lineations, ice stream shear margin moraines, and major sedimentary depocentres. However, studying relict features could say little about the time‐scales over which this geomorphology evolved and under what glaciological conditions. This began to be addressed in the early 2000s, through continued efforts to scrutinise modern ice stream beds at higher resolution, but our current understanding of how landforms relate to processes remains subject to large uncertainties, particularly in relation to the mechanisms and time‐scales of sediment erosion, transport and deposition, and how these lead to the growth and decay of subglacial bedforms. This represents the next key challenge and will require even closer cooperation between glaciology, glacial geomorphology, sedimentology, and numerical modelling, together with more sophisticated methods to quantify and analyse the anticipated growth of geomorphological data from beneath active ice streams. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Water temperature is an important determinant of the growth and development of malaria mosquito immatures. To gain a better understanding of the daily temperature dynamics of malaria mosquito breeding sites and of the relationships between meteorological variables and water temperature, three clear water pools (diameter × depth: 0·16 × 0·04, 0·32 × 0·16 and 0·96 × 0·32 m) were created in Kenya. Continuous water temperature measurements at various depths were combined with weather data collections from a meteorological station. The water pools were homothermic, but the top water layer differed by up to about 2 °C in temperature, depending on weather conditions. Although the daily mean temperature of all water pools was similar (27·4–28·1 °C), the average recorded difference between the daily minimum and maximum temperature was 14·4 °C in the smallest versus 7·1 °C in the largest water pool. Average water temperature corresponded well with various meteorological variables. The temperature of each water pool was continuously higher than the air temperature. A model was developed that predicts the diurnal water temperature dynamics accurately, based on the estimated energy budget components of these water pools. The air–water interface appeared the most important boundary for energy exchange processes and on average 82–89% of the total energy was gained and lost at this boundary. Besides energy loss to longwave radiation, loss due to evaporation was high; the average estimated daily evaporation ranged from 4·2 mm in the smallest to 3·7 mm in the largest water pool. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Channel curvature produces secondary currents and a transverse sloping channel bed, along which the depth increases towards the outer bank. As a result deep pools tend to form adjacent to the outer bank, promoting bank collapse. The interaction of sediment grains with the primary and secondary flow and the transverse sloping bed also causes meanders to move different grain sizes in different proportions and directions, resulting in a consistent sorting pattern. Several models have been developed to describe this process, but they all have the potential to over‐predict pool depth because they cannot account for the influence of erodible banks. In reality, bank collapse might lead to the development of a wider, shallower cross‐section and any resulting flow depth discrepancy can bias associated predictions of flow, sediment transport, and grain‐size sorting. While bed topography, sediment transport and grain sorting in bends will partly be controlled by the sedimentary characteristics of the bank materials, the magnitude of this effect has not previously been explored. This paper reports the development of a model of flow, sediment transport, grain‐size sorting, and bed topography for river bends with erodible banks. The model is tested via intercomparison of predicted and observed bed topography in one low‐energy (5·3 W m?2 specific stream power) and one high‐energy (43·4 W m?2) study reach, namely the River South Esk in Scotland and Goodwin Creek in Mississippi, respectively. Model predictions of bed topography are found to be satisfactory, at least close to the apices of bends. Finally, the model is used in sensitivity analyses that provide insight into the influence of bank erodibility on equilibrium meander morphology and associated patterns of grain‐size sorting. The sensitivity of meander response to bank cohesion is found to increase as a function of the available stream power within the two study bends. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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