Climate change in mountain regions: some possible consequences in the Moroccan High Atlas

Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Seasonal and annual variations in climate already strongly influence agro-ecosystems, and although there is much speculation about the precise effects in such areas, any response of the communities will emerge from existing coping practices. Using examples from the High Atlas in Morocco, the paper explores the implications for livestock management, arboriculture and tourism. Although the local agro-ecosystem may prove resilient initially, the need to change tenure conditions and other rules of management may lead to conflict which exceeds the capacity of local institutions to resolve. At the same time national considerations may also draw the state more fully into conflict with mountain communities over resource use. However, the paper argues that these issues are just as likely to emerge from the evolution of the national economy as from climate change.     

Climate change and adaptation: an integrated framework linking social and physical aspects in poorly-gauged regions

Various frameworks related to climate change and adaptations that have been developed to date have notable benefits as well as significant limitations. It is not always practical to implement advanced climate change frameworks in situations with limited data availability. Social aspects, such as people’s experience and perception, are often under-prioritized. Therefore, this study introduces an integrated framework linking social and physical aspects of climate change to assess its impacts on water resources and to evaluate differing adaptation options in poorly gauged basins. A case study of the Kali Gandaki River Basin (KGRB) in western Nepal is presented to demonstrate the applicability of this framework. Results of the study show that people of the mountainous Mustang district in the KGRB have perceived climate change or climate variability, its impacts on water resources, as well as other water-related issues and potential adaptations or responses. Furthermore, evaluation of people’s perception using available physical data confirms the increase in temperature and average annual discharge in the Kali Gandaki River as well as poor water use, as a major problem at all levels in the basin. Despite increasing water availability, a concurrent increase in water use is difficult due to topographic constraints on irrigation development. However, the impacts of climate change are particularly severe in Mustang, owing to the fact that a large proportion of the population depends on a climate-sensitive livelihood like agriculture. Therefore, various adaptation options are identified in the agricultural sector, and one relevant option is further evaluated. The framework developed in this study has the potential to be further applied to other poorly gauged basins.     

Climate change and sustainable development: towards dialogue

The consequences of climate change and sustainable development remaining as separate discourses are explored, both in general and in the Canadian context. One of these consequences is the difference in emission and economic development scenarios generated by the two groups. A second is that strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are designed and assessed in a narrow technical context, divorced from the economic and social forces that underlie them. We identify the need for climate change and sustainable development to be represented in a more explicit manner in each other's research agendas, and for integrated assessment of climate change to incorporate alternative methodologies that complement global scale integrated assessment models. These methodologies should include greater involvement of stakeholders as partners with researchers in a shared learning experience.     

Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments

International negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change could take several different approaches to advance future mitigation commitments. Options range from trying to reach consensus on specific long-term atmospheric concentration targets (e.g. 550 ppmv) to simply ignoring this contentious issue and focusing instead on what can be done in the nearer term. This paper argues for a strategy that lies between these two extremes. Internationally agreed threshold levels for certain categories of impacts or of risks posed by climate change could be translated into acceptable levels of atmospheric concentrations. This could help to establish a range of upper limits for global emissions in the medium term that could set the ambition level for negotiations on expanded GHG mitigation commitments. The paper thus considers how physical and socio-economic indicators of climate change impacts might be used to guide the setting of such targets. In an effort to explore the feasibility and implications of low levels of stabilisation, it also quantifies an intermediate global emission target for 2020 that keeps open the option to stabilise at 450 ppmv CO₂ If new efforts to reduce emissions are not forthcoming (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol or similar mitigation efforts fail), there is a significant chance that the option of 450 ppmv CO₂ is out of reach as of 2020. Regardless of the preferred approach to shaping new international commitments on climate change, progress will require improved information on the avoided impacts climate change at different levels of mitigation and careful assessment of mitigation costs.     

Climate change: changing means and changing extremes

Ongoing global warming not only involves changes in temperature and the global mean; it affects more or less every part of the climate. Regional temperature changes are often greater or smaller than corresponding changes in the global mean. In some cases the direction of change may also be different. For example, temperature changes are higher over land than over the ocean. Precipitation increases in some regions but decreases in others. Changes in extreme events may differ from changes in the corresponding mean. Present scientific knowledge clearly indicates that the already observed global trend towards warmer conditions will continue and that it will be accompanied by changes in yet other aspects of climate. This paper highlights, as a brief review, aspects of our changing climate from the available scientific knowledge with a bearing on the energy sector. Its focus is on temperature and precipitation, with some consideration of wind and sea level, among others. While uncertainties remain as far as the magnitude of future global-scale changes is concerned, and even more so their many regional patterns, significant changes are foreseen in, for example, global and regional temperature and precipitation, sea level rise, and in the characteristics of various extreme events.     

Climate change perception in Romania

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In the last decades, anthropogenic drivers have significantly influenced the natural climate variability of Earth’s atmosphere. Climate change has become...     

Climate change and international tourism: A simulation study

The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes in population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however, the change from climate change is smaller than from population and income changes.     

Climate change: Motivation for taking measure to adapt

We tested two consequences of a currently influential theory based on the notion of seeing adaptations to climate change as local adjustments to deal with changing conditions within the constraints of the broader economic–social–political arrangements. The notion leaves no explicit role for the strength of personal beliefs in climate change and adaptive capacity. The consequences were: (i) adaptive action to climate change taken by an individual who is exposed to and sensitive to climate change is not influenced to a considerable degree by their strength of belief in climate change and (ii) adaptive action to climate change taken by an individual who is exposed to and sensitive to climate change is not influenced to a considerable degree by their strength of belief in an adaptive capacity. Data from a 2004 questionnaire of 1950 Swedish private individual forest owners, who were assumed exposed to and sensitive to climate change, were used. Strength of belief in climate change and adaptive capacities were found to be crucial factors for explaining observed differences in adaptation among Swedish forest owners.     

Climate change impacts: accounting for the human response

The assessment of potential impacts of climate change is progressing from taxonomies and enumeration of the magnitude of potential direct effects on individuals, societies, species, and ecosystems according to a limited number of metrics toward a more integrated approach that also encompasses the vast range of human response to experience and risk. Recent advances are both conceptual and methodological, and include analysis of some consequences of climate change that were heretofore intractable. In this article, I review a selection of these developments and represent them through a handful of illustrative cases. A key characteristic of the emerging areas of interest is a focus on understanding how human responses to direct impacts of climate change may cause important indirect and sometimes distant impacts. This realization underscores the need to develop integrated approaches for assessing and modeling impacts in an evolving socioeconomic and policy context.     

Climate change and sustainable development: expanding the options

Climate change and sustainable development have been addressed in largely separate circles in both research and policy. Nevertheless, there are strong linkages between the two in both realms. This paper focuses on the scientific linkages and discusses the opportunities they provide for integrated policy development, and the necessity to consider the risk of trade-offs. It is suggested that integration may not only provide new opportunities, but may even be a prerequisite for successfully addressing both issues. Since the feasibility of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations is dependent on general socio-economic development paths, climate policy responses should be fully placed in the larger context of technological and socio-economic policy development rather than be viewed as an add-on to those broader policies. The arguments are supported by a range of examples for various economic sectors in the areas of both mitigation and adaptation, largely drawn from IPCC’s Third Assessment Report.     

Climate change and coastal megacities: Adapting through mobility

Climate change poses threats to individuals, communities, and cities globally. Global conversations and scholarly debates have explored ways people adapt to the impacts of climate change including through migration and relocation. This study uses Lagos, Nigeria as a case study to examine the relationship between flooding events, migration intentions as a preferred adaptation, and the destination choices for affected residents. The study draws on a mixed-methods approach which involved a survey of 352 residents and semi-structured interviews with 21 residents. We use a capability approach to analyze mobility decisions following major or repetitive flood events. We found that the majority of affected residents are willing to migrate but the ability to do so is constrained by economic, social, and political factors leading to involuntary immobility. Furthermore, intra-city relocation is preferred to migration to other states in Nigeria or internationally. These findings challenge popular Global South-North migration narratives. Indeed, some residents welcome government-supported relocation plans but others remain skeptical due to lack of trust. Community-based relocation may therefore be preferred by some Lagosians. Overall, this study contributes a nuanced understanding of mobility intentions in response to climate-induced flooding in one of the world’s largest coastal cities.     

Climate change predictions for South America

Some of the characteristics of predicted climate changes for South America are analysed for the years 2010 and 2050. These predictions are based on the results of three-dimensional Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results differ between models (GISS, NCAR-CCMs and GFDL), particularly when applied to regional and sub-regional scales and to time scales of less than one-year intervals. It is concluded that these differences are due to the particular structure of each model as well as to the lack of sufficient basic data from the South American sub-continent. The dynamics of vegetation cover play an important role in future water balance changes. The changes in surface temperatures predicted by the GISS model are discussed in relation to changes in the climatic-dynamic base stemming from anthropogenic changes in the vegetation cover.     

Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO₂ fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.     

Climate change and Quebec's ski industry

This study presents the results of a second-generation climate change assessment for three key ski regions of Quebéc incorporating snowmaking as a climate adaptation strategy. Potential economic ramifications for ski operators are assessed separately for the main revenue-generating period and shoulder seasons. The paper concludes that climate change does not pose a threat to the Quebéc ski industry under 2020s scenarios and that, while adequate snow base can be maintained with additional snowmaking under even the warmest scenario for the 2050s, the combined economic impact of lost revenue opportunities from a shortened ski season and increased snowmaking costs will likely prove prohibitive for some ski operators.     

气候变化国家评估报告（II）：气候变化的影响与适应

已经观测到的气候变化影响是显著的、多方面的。各个领域和地区都存在有利和不利影响,但以不利影响为主,未来的气候变暖将会对中国的生态系统、农业以及水资源等部门和沿海地区产生重大的不利影响。采取适应措施可以减轻气候变化的不利影响,应将适应气候变化的行动逐步纳入国民经济和社会发展的中长期规划中。由于我国科学研究的相对不足和科学认识能力的局限,目前的气候变化影响评估方法和结果还存在很大的不确定性。应当加强区域适应气候变化的案例研究、扩大研究领域、加强极端天气、气候事件影响的研究,以降低影响评估的不确定性,并提出切实可行的适应对策。     

Climate change,innovation and jobs

The employment effect of climate policy has emerged as an important concern of policy makers, not least in the USA. Yet the impact of climate policy on jobs is complex. In the short term, jobs will shift from high-carbon activities to low-carbon activities. The net effect could be job creation, as low-carbon technologies tend to be more labour-intensive, at least in the short term until efficiency gains bring down costs. In the medium term, the effect will be felt economy-wide as value chains and production patterns adjust. This effect is more difficult to gauge, particularly if climate policy is unilateral and trade effects have to be taken into account. However, the biggest effect is expected to be long term, when climate policy will trigger widespread structural adjustment. Such episodes of ‘creative destruction’ are often associated with innovation, job creation and growth.     

Climate change and global water resources

By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources). Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of climate change for global hydrological regimes and water resources. It uses climate change scenarios developed from Hadley Centre climate simulations (HadCM2 and HadCM3), and simulates global river flows at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model. Changes in national water resources are calculated, including both internally generated runoff and upstream imports, and compared with national water use estimates developed for the United Nations Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World. Although there is variation between scenarios, the results suggest that average annual runoff will increase in high latitudes, in equatorial Africa and Asia, and southeast Asia, and will decrease in mid-latitudes and most subtropical regions. The HadCM3 scenario produces changes in runoff which are often similar to those from the HadCM2 scenarios — but there are important regional differences. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover. This has implications for the timing of streamflow in such regions, with a shift from spring snow melt to winter runoff. Under the HadCM2 ensemble mean scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would increase by 53 million by 2025 (relative to those who would be affected in the absence of climate change). Under the HadCM3 scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would rise by 113 million. However, by 2050 there would be a net reduction in populations in stressed countries under HadCM2 (of around 69 million), but an increase of 56 million under HadCM3. The study also showed that different indications of the impact of climate change on water resource stresses could be obtained using different projections of future water use. The paper emphasises the large range between estimates of “impact”, and also discusses the problems associated with the scale of analysis and the definition of indices of water resource impact.