热带大西洋对全球变暖的响应

与太平洋和印度洋不同，全球变暖下热带大西洋变化的研究较少。本文使用地球系统模型CESM（Community Earth System Model），发现全球变暖后热带大西洋在秋季的升温类似大西洋尼诺（Atlantic Niño）的正位相，即大西洋西部增暖幅度小于东部；在夏季类似大西洋尼诺的负位相，即大西洋西部增暖幅度大于东部。利用覆盖（overriding）技术，分离了风应力、风速和CO₂的直接热效应对海洋升温的作用，探讨了大西洋尼诺本身和全球变暖作用下类似大西洋尼诺正位相（下文简称“类大西洋尼诺升温”）的形成机制。结果表明，这两种情况下的形成机制基本相同，风应力的变化是导致大西洋东部暖异常的主要机制。但两者之间也存在区别：1）全球变暖下海表温度的季节变化振幅减小，而大西洋尼诺时变化不大；2）全球变暖下西风异常主要集中在大西洋东部，而大西洋尼诺时主要集中在大西洋中部；3）除风应力外，CO₂的热效应对类尼诺升温的变化也有一定影响。     

Bridges to best management: Effects of a voluntary bycatch avoidance program in a mid-water trawl fishery

The catch of non-target species or discarding of target species (bycatch) in commercial fisheries can result in negative species level and ecosystem wide impacts as well as adverse social and economic effects. Bycatch has become one of the foremost, global issues of fishery managers and conservationists, especially when the non-target species is from a protected or threatened population. However, the impact and spatial distribution of bycatch is frequently unknown making it difficult to develop effective, justifiable mitigation regulations. This challenge is exemplified by the bycatch of river herring (alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus, and blueback herring, A. aestivalis) and American shad (A. sapidissima) in the northwest Atlantic mid-water trawl fishery targeting Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus). As an alternative to immediate management action, a voluntary bycatch avoidance program was established through an industry, state government, and university partnership. Here the program is described and its impact is evaluated by comparing fleet behavior and bycatch prior to and during the program. The combined results suggest that consistent communication, facilitated by the avoidance program, positively influenced fishing habits and played a role in the approximately 60% decrease in total bycatch and 20% decrease in the bycatch ratio observed during the program. However, the success of small scale move-along strategies to reduce bycatch ratios varied greatly in different areas of the fishery and years. This suggests the program is best viewed as an intermediate or complimentary solution. Overall, this project exemplifies of how collaborative programs can help alleviate difficult management scenarios.     

Fishery management techniques: Practical aspects and limitations

This article investigates practical aspects and limitations of various fishery management techniques. Restrictions on catch and fishing effort (active regulations) are described, and the authors point out that catch restrictions are less robust scientifically than effort restrictions. Spatial — temporal restrictions, gear restrictions, and restrictions on the nature of the catch-which are passive with respect to fishing mortality-are reviewed and it is concluded that fishing mortality is theoretically unbounded when only passive methods of fisheries management are applied.     

Transport of South Atlantic water through the passages south of Guadeloupe and across 16°N, 2000–2004

CTD, vessel-mounted ADCP and LADCP measurements in the Caribbean passages south of Guadeloupe (three repeats) and along 16°N (five repeats) were carried out between December 2000 and July 2004. The CTD data were used to calculate the contribution of South Atlantic water (SAW) in the upper 1200 m between the isopycnals σ_θ=24.5 and 27.6. Northern and southern source water masses are defined and an isopycnal mixing approach is applied. The SAW fractions are then combined with the ADCP flow field to calculate the transport of SAW into the Caribbean and across 16°N. The SAW inflow into the Caribbean through the passages south of Guadeloupe ranges from 7.6 to 11.6 Sv, which is 50–75% of the total inflow. The mean (9.1±2.2 Sv) is in the range of previous estimates. Ambiguities in the northern and southern source water masses of the salinity maximum water permitted us only to calculate the contribution of SAW from the eastern source in this water mass. We estimated the additional SAW transport by the western source to be of the order of 1.9±0.7 Sv. The calculation of the SAW transport across 16°N was hampered by the presence of several anticyclonic rings from the North Brazil Current (NBC) retroflection region, some of the rings were subsurface intensified. Provided that the rings observed at 16°N are typical rings and that all rings which are annually produced in the NBC retroflection area (6.5–8.5 per year) reach 16°N, the SAW ring transport across 16°N is calculated to 5.3±0.7 Sv. From the 5 repeats at 16°N, only two showed a net northward flow, suggesting that the mean northward SAW transport is dominated by ring advection. The joint SAW transports of the Caribbean inflow (9.1 Sv) and the flow across 16°N (5.3 Sv) sum up to 14.4 Sv. The transport increases to 16.3 Sv if the additional SAW transport from the western source of SMW (1.9±0.7 Sv) is included. These transport estimates and the following implications depend strongly on the assumption that the surface water in the Caribbean inflow is of South Atlantic origin. The transport estimates are, however, in the range of the inverse model calculations for the net cross-hemispheric flow. About 30–40% of this transport is intermediate water from the South Atlantic, presumably supporting studies which found the contributions of intermediate and upper warm water to be of a comparable magnitude. For the upper warm water (σ_θ<27.1), the Caribbean inflow seems to be the major path (7.9±1.6 Sv), the ring induced transport across 16°N is about 30% of that value. The intermediate water transport across 16°N was calculated to be 2.3–3.6 Sv, the inflow into the Caribbean is slightly smaller (1.5–2.4 Sv).     

The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Interannual- to Multidecadal-scale patterns of phytoplankton variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

At interannual to multidecadal time scales, much of the oceanographic and climatic variability in the North Atlantic Ocean can be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While evidence suggests that there is a relationship between the NAO and zooplankton dynamics in the North Atlantic Ocean, the phytoplankton response to NAO-induced changes in the environment is less clear. Time series of monthly mean phytoplankton colour values, as compiled by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, are analysed to infer relationships between the NAO and phytoplankton dynamics throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. While a few areas display highly significant (p < 0.05) trends in the CPR colour time series during the period 1948–2000, nominally significant (p < 0.20) positive trends are widespread across the basin, particularly on the continental shelves and in a transition zone stretching across the Central North Atlantic. When long-term trends are removed from both the NAO index and CPR colour time series, the correlation between them ceases to be significant. Several hypotheses are proposed to explain the observed variability in the CPR colour and its relationship with climate in the North Atlantic.     

Regional fish stock management: A model for North-West Africa

Development of a bio-economic model for applications in managing an important north African fishery is reported in this article. The model is applied through identification of baseline conditions and analysis of two alternative fishery management plans; limiting the number of vessels and instituting a closed season. Several key assumptions relative to biological and fleet variables are necessarily made, since in some areas historical data are limited. However, results strongly suggest that rents to resource owners (African coastal countries) can be substantially increased by either method of limiting access to the fishery and by licensing vessels and fishermen.     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

The mid-depth circulation of the northwestern tropical Atlantic observed by floats

A comprehensive analysis of velocity data from subsurface floats in the northwestern tropical Atlantic at two depth layers is presented: one representing the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW, pressure range 600–1050 dbar), the other the upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW, pressure range 1200–2050 dbar). New data from three independent research programs are combined with previously available data to achieve blanket coverage in space for the AAIW layer, while coverage in the uNADW remains more intermittent. Results from the AAIW mainly confirm previous studies on the mean flow, namely the equatorial zonal and the boundary currents, but clarify details on pathways, mostly by virtue of the spatial data coverage that sets float observations apart from e.g. shipborne or mooring observations. Mean transports in each of five zonal equatorial current bands is found to be between 2.7 and 4.5 Sv. Pathways carrying AAIW northward beyond the North Brazil Undercurrent are clearly visible in the mean velocity field, in particular a northward transport of 3.7 Sv across 16°N between the Antilles islands and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. New maps of Lagrangian eddy kinetic energy and integral time scales are presented to quantify mesoscale activity. For the uNADW, mean flow and mesoscale properties are discussed as data availability allows. Trajectories in the uNADW east of the Lesser Antilles reveal interactions between the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) and the basin interior, which can explain recent hydrographic observations of changes in composition of DWBC water along its southward flow.     

A Coupled Ice-Ocean Model in the Pan-Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean: Simulation of Seasonal Cycles

A coupled ice-ocean model is configured for the pan-Arctic and northern North Atlantic Ocean with a 27.5 km resolution. The model is driven by the daily atmospheric climatology averaged from the 40-year NCEP reanalysis (1958–1997). The ocean model is the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), while the sea ice model is based on a full thermodynamical and dynamical model with plastic-viscous rheology. A sea ice model with multiple categories of thickness is utilized. A systematic model-data comparison was conducted. This model reasonably reproduces seasonal cycles of both the sea ice and the ocean. Climatological sea ice areas derived from historical data are used to validate the ice model performance. The simulated sea ice cover reaches a maximum of 14 × 10⁶ km² in winter and a minimum of 6.7 × 10⁶ km² in summer. This is close to the 95-year climatology with a maximum of 13.3 × 10⁶ km² in winter and a minimum of 7 × 10⁶ km² in summer. The simulated general circulation in the Arctic Ocean, the GIN (Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian) seas, and northern North Atlantic Ocean are qualitatively consistent with historical mapping. It is found that the low winter salinity or freshwater in the Canada Basin tends to converge due to the strong anticyclonic atmospheric circulation that drives the anticyclonic ocean surface current, while low summer salinity or freshwater tends to spread inside the Arctic and exports out of the Arctic due to the relaxing wind field. It is also found that the warm, saline Atlantic Water has little seasonal variation, based on both simulation and observations. Seasonal cycles of temperature and salinity at several representative locations reveals regional features that characterize different water mass properties.     

大西洋热盐环流年代际变化机制研究Ⅱ．热盐环流年际和年代际变化机制研究

基于德国Max-Planck气象研究所的最新大气海洋环流模式(ECHAM5/MPI-OM),对控制试验(control run)下热盐环流(THC)年际及年代际变化进行了分析,揭示了年代际变率的产生机制。研究表明:(1)THC年际振荡的主导周期是4 a,年代际振荡的主导周期是24 a,THC的年代际振荡信号最强,是第一主成分。(2)THC的年代际振荡机制为:首先从大西洋径向翻转环流(MOC)强度最小开始,由于MOC强度处于较弱状态,从低纬度向高纬度输送的热量偏少,副极地海区海表温度出现负异常,持续5 a之后,北大西洋副极地海区海表温度达到最大负异常。此时副极地流环中心(北大西洋)的表层海水变冷,密度增加,海表面下降,产生从副极地流环边缘指向副极地流环的中心的压强梯度力,根据地转平衡关系,北大西洋副极地海区的上层海洋会出现一个气旋式的环流异常(副极地流环得到加强),北大西洋暖流(NAC)同时得到加强。在副极地海区海表温度达到最大负异常的3 a之后,副极地流环和NAC达到最强。由此,作为NAC延伸的法鲁海峡入流水增强,更多的高盐法鲁海峡入流水进入格陵兰-冰岛-挪威海(GIN)海域,使GIN海域层结稳定性减弱。1 a后,GIN海域深层对流增强,格陵兰-苏格兰海脊溢流水增加。在GIN海域深层对流达到最强的3 a之后,MOC强度达到最大。整个状态翻转过程完成的时间大约为12 a,THC年代际振荡的整个周期大约是24 a。     

Ocean zoning in the Northwest Atlantic

A workshop held in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, brought together marine policy makers, resource users and experts to discuss spatial planning in the marine environment. Participants explored concepts of ocean zoning and learned from other jurisdictions and related integrated management initiatives. An ocean user perspectives panel featured plenary addresses on the significance of ocean zoning to various sectors. Discussions at the workshop emphasized the need for involving all key players and clearly defining terms used in the spatial planning process.     

大西洋金枪鱼渔业现状分析

本文采用大西洋国际金抢鱼保护委员会ICCAT的报告和统计常设委员会（SCRS）数据库，统计分析了1978-2002年大西洋金抢鱼的渔获种类及渔具渔法。结果表明：按种类分黄鳍金枪鱼（占28％）、鲣鱼（22％）、长鳍金枪鱼（15％）、大眼金枪鱼（11％）、其他种类（8％）；按渔具分围网（42％）、延绳钓（29％）、饵钓（22％）、其它渔具（7％）。同时分析了不同海域的渔获种类、渔获量波动情况和原因。     

南大西洋副热带偶极子的年际变化

南大西洋副热带偶极子(South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole;SASD)为南大西洋海洋与大气相互作用的主要模态。它的空间型为海表面温度异常呈现东北-西南偶极子分布。当SASD指数大于1,为SASD正事件,小于-1,为负事件。根据1960-2016年HadISST(Hadley Center Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature)数据,本文鉴别出57年中共发生6次正事件和9次负事件。SASD存在显著的5~8年周期的年际变化特征。本文进一步利用1992-2016年ECCO2(Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean,PhaseⅡ)模式数据,根据温度倾向方程分别诊断了SASD西南极和东北极的混合层温度变化。诊断结果表明,SASD的年际变化主要来自于表面热力强迫项的年际变化。考虑到表面热力强迫项主要由短波辐射项控制,SASD的年际变化最终来源于短波辐射项的年际变化。     

A Zonal Pathway for NADW in the South Atlantic

Several large deployments of neutrally buoyant floats took place within the Antarctic Intermediate (AAIW), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) of the South Atlantic in the 1990s and a number of hydrographic sections were occupied as well. Here we use the spatially and temporally averaged velocities measured by these floats, combined with the hydrographic section data and various estimates of regional current transports from moored current meter arrays, to determine the circulation of the three major subthermocline water masses in a zonal strip across the South Atlantic between the latitudes of 19°S and 30°S. We concentrate on this region because the historical literature suggests that it is where the Deep Western Boundary Current containing NADW bifurcates. In support of this notion, we find that a net of about 5 Sv. of the 15–20 Sv that crosses 19°S does continue zonally eastward at least as far as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Once across the ridge it takes a circuit to the north along the ridge flanks before returning to the south in the eastern half of the Angola Basin. The data suggest that the NADW then continues on into the Indian Ocean. This scheme is discussed in the context of distributions of dissolved oxygen, silicate and salinity. In spite of the many float-years of data that were collected in the region a surprising result is that their impact on the computed solutions is quite modest. Although the focus is on the NADW we also discuss the circulation for the AAIW and AABW layers.     

Testing the Porcupine Plate hypothesis

The Porcupine Plate, postulated in 1986 to explain difficulties in reconstructing anomalies 21 and 24 in the North Atlantic, is re-examined. Focusing sharply on the spreading segments nearest to Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone casts doubt on the Porcupine Plate hypothesis.