Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulations for 6000 years BP and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa

 The LMD AGCM was iteratively coupled to the global BIOME1 model in order to explore the role of vegetation-climate interactions in response to mid-Holocene (6000 y BP) orbital forcing. The sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distribution used were present-day and CO₂ concentration was pre-industrial. The land surface was initially prescribed with present-day vegetation. Initial climate “anomalies” (differences between AGCM results for 6000 y BP and control) were used to drive BIOME1; the simulated vegetation was provided to a further AGCM run, and so on. Results after five iterations were compared to the initial results in order to identify vegetation feedbacks. These were centred on regions showing strong initial responses. The orbitally induced high-latitude summer warming, and the intensification and extension of Northern Hemisphere tropical monsoons, were both amplified by vegetation feedbacks. Vegetation feedbacks were smaller than the initial orbital effects for most regions and seasons, but in West Africa the summer precipitation increase more than doubled in response to changes in vegetation. In the last iteration, global tundra area was reduced by 25% and the southern limit of the Sahara desert was shifted 2.5 °N north (to 18 °N) relative to today. These results were compared with 6000 y BP observational data recording forest-tundra boundary changes in northern Eurasia and savana-desert boundary changes in northern Africa. Although the inclusion of vegetation feedbacks improved the qualitative agreement between the model results and the data, the simulated changes were still insufficient, perhaps due to the lack of ocean-surface feedbacks. Received: 5 December 1996 / Accepted: 16 June 1997     

Reconstruction of the last deglaciation: deconvolved records of δ18O profiles,micropaleontological variations and accelerator mass spectrometric14C dating

Bioturbation acts as a low-pass filter in displacing and reducing the amplitudes of stratigraphic signals. This often leads to a loss of high-frequency events in the stratigraphic record. In addition, when considering an isotopic signal ¹⁸O,¹⁴C measured in stratigraphic carriers, such as foraminifera, bioturbation and carrier abundance changes can create artifacts which may be falsely interpreted as leads or lags in the paleoclimatic record.We presenthere a model in which bioturbationis treated as a time-invariant filter whose impulse response function (IRF) is like that of a first-order system. The method involves first deconvoluting the abundance curves of the carriers and then the isotopic signals using the restored carrier abundances. This analysis was initially used to artificially generate ideal curves, with the aim of qualitatively modelling the effects of bioturbation. Following this, deconvolved curves were obtained using data from the core CH73-139C using ¹⁸O, A. M. S. C-14 ages, and abundances of two planktonic foraminifera:G. bulloides andN. pachyderma left-coiling. A comparison of the data with the unmixed curves enables separation of the bioturbation artifacts and the construction of a common deglaciation curve based on the restored signals.Importantly, the model emphasizes some severe limitations of mathematical analysis of stratigraphic signals.     

Idealized Large-Eddy Simulations of Sea and Lake Breezes: Sensitivity to Lake Diameter, Heat Flux and Stability

Idealized large-eddy simulations of lake and sea breezes are conducted to determine the sensitivity of these thermally-driven circulations to variations in the land-surface sensible heat flux and initial atmospheric stability. The lake-breeze and sea-breeze metrics of horizontal wind speed, horizontal extent, and depth are assessed. Modelled asymmetries about the coastline in the horizontal extent of the low-level onshore flow are found to vary as a function of the heat flux and stability. Small lake breezes develop similarly to sea breezes in the morning, but have a significantly weaker horizontal wind-speed component and a smaller horizontal extent than sea breezes in the afternoon.     

Vulnerability to epidemic malaria in the highlands of Lake Victoria basin: the role of climate change/variability, hydrology and socio-economic factors

Endemic malaria in most of the hot and humid African climates is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In the last twenty or so years the incidence of malaria has been aggravated by the resurgence of highland malaria epidemics which hitherto had been rare. A close association between malaria epidemics and climate variability has been reported but not universally accepted. Similarly, the relationship between climate variability, intensity of disease mortality and morbidity coupled with socio-economic factors has been mooted. Analyses of past climate (temperature and precipitation), hydrological and health data (1961–2001), and socio-economics status of communities from the East African highlands confirm the link between climate variability and the incidence and severity of malaria epidemics. The communities in the highlands that have had less exposure to malaria are more vulnerable than their counterparts in the lowlands due to lack of clinical immunity. However, the vulnerability of human health to climate variability is influenced by the coping and adaptive capacities of an individual or community. Surveys conducted among three communities in the East African highlands reveal that the interplay of poverty and other socio-economic variables have intensified the vulnerability of these communities to the impacts of malaria.     

Aridity and the Potential Physiological Response of C 3 Crops to Doubled Atmospheric Co 2 : A Simple Demonstration of the Sensitivity of the Canadian Prairies

Since cultivated annual C₃ field crops cover about50% of the land surface of the Canadian Prairie grassland eco-climatic zone, this vegetationinfluences the aridity of the climate during the growing season. The physiological response of these cropsto a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ may be a doubling of canopyresistance. If this physiological effect is not counteracted by interactive feedbacks, such as increasedleaf area, evapotranspiration rates could be reduced. To demonstrate the sensitivity of thearidity of the Prairie climate to this potential physiological effect, representative spring wheatgrowing-season soil moisture and Bowen ratio curves for a doubled canopy resistance(2 × CO₂) scenario were compared with a control (1 × CO₂) scenario.Lower evapotranspiration in the 2 × CO₂ scenario: (1) Increased root-zone soilmoisture levels, and (2) weakened the atmospheric component of the hydrologic cycle by raisingBowen ratios, which reduces the convective available energy, and reduces the regionalcontribution to the atmospheric water vapour over the Prairies. A weakened hydrologic cycleimplies less rainfall, and possibly, lower soil moisture levels. Thus, the net impact of a doublingof the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ on the aridity of the Canadian Prairies is uncertain.This simple sensitivity demonstration did not consider most of the potential feedback mechanisms,nor interactions of other processes. Nevertheless, the result illustrates that the physiologicaleffect should be explicitly included in climate change models for the Canadian Prairies.