On forecasting abnormal climatic events in the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Modelling and observational evidence indicate that interannual variabilities of dynamic height and sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea) are largely induced by preceding fluctuations in wind stress, mainly in the western equatorial basin. A wind-driven linear ocean model is used here to test the possibility of forecasting the abnormal dynamic heights. A control run of the model, forced by 1964–1993 wind stress monthly means, is first conducted. Yearly test runs (1964-1994) are subsequently performed from January to August by forcing the model with observed winds from January to May, and then by forcing with the May wind assumed to persist from June to August. During the last three decades the largest deviations of dynamic height simulated by the control run in the Gulf of Guinea in boreal summer would have been correctly forecast from wind data related only to conditions in May of each year. However, for weak climatic anomalies, the model may forecast overestimated values. For the most part (about 20 times during the last 30 years), the sign of the observed SST anomaly in the centre of the Gulf of Guinea during the boreal summer is identical to the sign of simulated anomalies of dynamic height deduced from both control and test runs. Along the eastern equatorial waveguide, the sea level forecasting skill slowly decreases from the first 2 weeks of June until the second 2 weeks of August, but remains high on both sides of the equator throughout boreal summer, as is expected from the adjustment in a linear ocean model. It is established that throughout the year in the Gulf of Guinea the accuracy of the 1-month forecast dynamic height anomaly provided by the simple linear method is greater than that of the 1-month forecast assuming persistence.     

Modeling studies of the upper ocean response to a tropical cyclone

A coupled ocean and boundary layer flux numerical modeling system is used to study the upper ocean response to surface heat and momentum fluxes associated with a major hurricane, namely, Hurricane Dennis (July 2005) in the Gulf of Mexico. A suite of experiments is run using this modeling system, constructed by coupling a Navy Coastal Ocean Model simulation of the Gulf of Mexico to an atmospheric flux model. The modeling system is forced by wind fields produced from satellite scatterometer and atmospheric model wind data, and by numerical weather prediction air temperature data. The experiments are initialized from a data assimilative hindcast model run and then forced by surface fluxes with no assimilation for the time during which Hurricane Dennis impacted the region. Four experiments are run to aid in the analysis: one is forced by heat and momentum fluxes, one by only momentum fluxes, one by only heat fluxes, and one with no surface forcing. An equation describing the change in the upper ocean hurricane heat potential due to the storm is developed. Analysis of the model results show that surface heat fluxes are primarily responsible for widespread reduction (0.5°–1.5°C) of sea surface temperature over the inner West Florida Shelf 100–300 km away from the storm center. Momentum fluxes are responsible for stronger surface cooling (2°C) near the center of the storm. The upper ocean heat loss near the storm center of more than 200 MJ/m² is primarily due to the vertical flux of thermal energy between the surface layer and deep ocean. Heat loss to the atmosphere during the storm’s passage is approximately 100–150 MJ/m². The upper ocean cooling is enhanced where the preexisting mixed layer is shallow, e.g., within a cyclonic circulation feature, although the heat flux to the atmosphere in these locations is markedly reduced.     

Trace organic contamination in the Americas: An overview of the US National Status & Trends and the International ‘Mussel Watch’ programmes

The National Status & Trends (NS&T, 1986–1993) and the International Mussel Watch (IMW, 1991–1992) programmes provide a good coverage of a broad range of environmental conditions along the North, Central and South American coasts. Total concentrations of DDTs, chlordane-related compounds, PCBs and PAHs present fairly homogeneous distributions along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, with very few sites showing extremely high or low concentrations. In contrast, a larger variability in the geographical distribution of some of these organic contaminants was observed for IMW sites. For example, high concentrations of DDT and its metabolites, DDD and DDE, were generally found in tropical and subtropical areas as compared to more temperate zones of South America. ‘Industrial’ contaminants, such as PCBs and PAHs, have similar distributions with the highest concentrations encountered generally along the southern South Atlantic coast. An overall comparison of the concentrations of these organic contaminants measured at NS&T and IMW sites indicates that contamination is significantly higher along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico.     

Physical disturbance creates bacterial dominance of benthic biological communities in tropical deltaic environments of the Gulf of Papua

Unlike many reactive continental shelf mud deposits in temperate regions, bacteria and microfauna rather than macrofauna typically dominate benthic biomass and activities over large areas of the Gulf of Papua (GoP) deltaic complex, Papua New Guinea. During mid NW monsoon periods (Jan–Feb), macrofaunal densities at Gulf stations were relatively low (), large macroinfauna were absent (upper 25 cm), and small (), surface deposit-feeding polychaetes and tubiculous amphipods were dominant, reflecting a frequently destabilized seabed and high sedimentation/erosion rates. Although frequent physical disturbance generally inhibits development of macrobenthic communities, some regions of the Gulf deposits are periodically colonized and extensively bioturbated during quiescent periods, as shown by preserved biogenic sedimentary structures. Bacterial inventories integrated over the top 20 cm were extremely variable within each sub region of the clinoform complex. A possible bimodal pattern with bathymetric depth and distance offshore may occur: lowest-inventories within the sandy, proximal Fly River delta, an open Gulf inner topset zone (10–20 m) having sites of relatively high inventories, an open Gulf mid-topset region with intermediate values and less extreme variation, and the outer topset—upper foreset zone (40–50 m) where highest values are attained (). Various measures of microbial activity, including measures proportional to the cellular rRNA content and the proportion of dividing cells, indicate extremely productive populations over the upper 1-m of the seabed throughout the Gulf of Papua region. Bacterial biomass (0–20 cm) including data of Alongi et al. (1991, 1992, 1995) varied from a low of in intertidal mud banks to a high of in the topset—foreset zone. Macrofaunal biomass did not exceed in any sampled region, ranging from 0.009±0 to with no obvious correlation with bathymetric depth (1–63 m). Meiofaunal biomass was generally an order of magnitude lower than macrofaunal biomass. Relatively elevated bacterial biomass and high turnover rates are consistent with high measured rates of benthic remineralization, presumably reflecting the rapid response time of bacteria to physical reworking, the associated entrainment of organic substrate, and flushing of metabolites. Solute exchange is also enhanced below the directly mixed surface region, possibly producing ‘far field’ stimulation of microbes in underlying deposits. Physical reworking and reoxidation of sediments between 10 and 50 m water depth maintain suboxic, nonsulfidic conditions in the upper 0.5–1 m despite active microbial communities and high benthic remineralization rates.     

Reproducibility and variability of submesoscale frontal eddies on a broad,low-energy shelf of freshwater influence

Ocean Dynamics - A multi-decadal simulation of ocean circulation in the northern Gulf of Mexico produces strong submesoscale instabilities in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya plume fronts. The model...     

Interacting Loop Current variability and Mississippi River discharge over the past 400 kyr

The Loop Current mediating the oceanic heat and salt flux from the Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean and its interference with the Mississippi River discharge are critical for both the regional climate in the Gulf of Mexico area and the water vapor transport towards high northern latitudes. We present a 400-kyr record of sea surface temperature and local surface salinity from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (IMAGES core MD02-2575) approximated from combined planktonic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca, which reflects the temporal dynamics of the Loop Current and its relationship to both varying Mississippi discharge and evolution of the Western Hemisphere Warm pool. The reconstructed sea surface temperature and salinity reveal glacial/interglacial amplitudes that are significantly larger than in the Western Hemisphere Warm pool. Sea surface freshening is observed during the extreme cool periods of Marine Isotope Stages 2, 8, and 10, caused by the strengthened Mississippi discharge which spread widely across the Gulf favored by the less established Loop Current. Interglacial and interstadial sea-surface conditions, instead, point to a strengthened, northward flowing Loop Current in line with the northward position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, allowing northeastern Gulf of Mexico surface hydrographic conditions to approach those of the Caribbean. At these times, the Mississippi discharge was low and deflected westward, promoted by the extended Loop Current. Previously described deglacial megadischarge events further to the west did not affect the northeastern Gulf of Mexico hydrography, implying that meltwater routing from the Laurentide Ice Sheet via the Mississippi River is unlikely to have affected Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.     

Entrainment of meltwaters in hyperpycnal flows during deglaciation superfloods in the Gulf of Mexico

Northern Gulf of Mexico is a key archival site of the Laurentide Ice Sheet melting history and the only margins containing evidence of meltwater outflows contemporaneous with global meltwater pulse mwp-1A. Inconsistencies between these meltwater floods and the absence of strong climate responses to large freshwater fluxes predicted by climate models raised questions concerning the validity of planktonic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O record in the Gulf of Mexico as a reliable index of freshwater fluxes. Isotope records of depth-stratified foraminifera document unusual trends compatible with entrainment of ¹⁸O-depleted freshwaters in hyperpycnal flows reaching the seafloor and rising to the surface as buoyant plumes. These exceptionally large outbursts of floodwaters, coeval with a prominent erosion intensity peak in continental paleohydrology, were catastrophically released in a rapid succession over a period of ca. 500 yr (14.7–14.2 kyr). Correspondence in time and magnitude between the torrential floods and the mwp-1A event supports the view that LIS was likely a substantial freshwater source. Drainage of meltwaters through torrential hyperpycnal flows that underwent substantial mixing with seawater may resolve the problem with ocean modeling results that predict a much stronger climate response to large freshwater hypopycnal fluxes into the ocean.     

Impact of GODAE products on nested HYCOM simulations of the West Florida Shelf

Nested non-assimilative simulations of the West Florida Shelf for 2004–2005 are used to quantify the impact of initial and boundary conditions provided by Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ocean products. Simulations are nested within an optimum interpolation hindcast of the Atlantic Ocean, the initial test of the US Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation system for the Gulf of Mexico, and a global ocean hindcast that used the latter assimilation system. These simulations are compared to one that is nested in a non-assimilative Gulf of Mexico model to document the importance of assimilation in the outer model. Simulations are evaluated by comparing model results to moored Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler measurements and moored sea surface temperature time series. The choice of outer model has little influence on simulated velocity fluctuations over the inner and middle shelf where fluctuations are dominated by the deterministic wind-driven response. Improvement is documented in the representation of alongshore flow variability over the outer shelf, driven in part by the intrusion of the Loop Current and associated cyclones at the shelf edge near the Dry Tortugas. This improvement was realized in the simulation nested in the global ocean hindcast, the only outer model choice that contained a realistic representation of Loop Current transport associated with basin-scale wind-driven gyre circulation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. For temperature, the non-assimilative outer model had a cold bias in the upper ocean that was substantially corrected in the data-assimilative outer models, leading to improved temperature representation in the simulations nested in the assimilative outer models.     

Coupling of early diagenetic processes and sedimentary dynamics in tropical shelf environments: the Gulf of Papua deltaic complex

Tropical mobile mud belts represent a major class of biogeochemical and diagenetic systems characterized by extensive and frequent physical reworking of fine-grained, organic-rich deposits underlying oxygenated waters. Large regions of the Gulf of Papua, Papua New Guinea deltaic complex are dominated by such conditions. A reworked mud belt lies within the inner shelf between 10 and 20 m depth on a sedimentary clinoform derived from coalescing deltas. Deposits across the topset are typically suboxic, nonsulfidic over the upper 0.5–1 m, and have low to moderate maximum pore water concentrations of dissolved Fe(II) and Mn(II) (100–200, but up to 800 μM). Sediments are reactive, with surficial ΣCO₂ production 0.1–0.3 mM d⁻¹ and benthic O₂ fluxes 23±15 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ (upper 20 cm). The highest rates occur within inner topset deposits (10–20 m) and near the high accumulation rollover region of the topset–foreset beds (40–50 m). Lower rates are found inshore along intertidal channels—mangrove fringe and within scoured or exposed consolidated deposits of the middle topset region. Remineralization rate patterns are independent of relative dominance by terrestrial or marine carbon in sediments. Dissolved O₂ usually penetrates 2–5 mm into surface sediments when macrofaunal burrows are absent. More than 75% of the highly reactive sedimentary Fe(III) pool (350–400 μmol g⁻¹) is typically diagenetically reduced in the upper 0.5 m. Pore water can be measureably depleted at depths >0.5 m, but dissolved H₂S generally remains below detection over the upper 1–2 m. As in other deltaic topset regions, concentration gradients often indicate that compared to many marine deposits of similar sediment accumulation rates, relatively refractory C_org is supplied to the SO₄ reducing zone. Sedimentary C/S ratios are 4–6 within the suboxic topset regions but decrease to <3 in offshore foreset beds where sulfidic diagenesis dominates. Only 15–20% of the diagenetically reduced Fe(II) is pyritic and a maximum of 10–25% is carbonate, implying that most Fe(II) is associated with authigenic or lithogenic silicates or oxides. The dominance of suboxic, nonsulfidic diagenetic processes reflect coupling between delivery of oxide-rich terrestrial debris, remobilization and reoxidation of deposits, and repetitive entrainment/remineralization of both labile and refractory organics. Distinct sedimentary indicators of reactive, suboxic mobile mud belts within tropical climatic zones are: abundant total highly reactive Fe (ΣFeR )>300 μmol g⁻¹; most reactive Fe is diagenetically reduced (ΣFe(II)/ΣFeR0.7–0.8); the proportion of diagenetically reduced Fe present as pyrite is low (Py–Fe(II)<0.2); C/S 4–8; and C_org/particle surface area <0.4 (mg C m⁻²). These depositional environments must be most common in tropical climates during high sea stand.     

Beryllium-10 in continental sediments

The concentration of¹⁰Be has been measured in 10 samples taken from a transect of surface sediments beginning in the Atchafalaya River and extending across the Bay 136 km into the Gulf of Mexico. If corrected for a lower retentivity of sand for Be, they have a concentration that is constant within 13%. This concentration is about an order of magnitude smaller than that of deep ocean sediments. For comparison, measurements of¹⁰Be in rainwater, in a sample of soil and in a deep ocean core were made.     

Consequences of coastal upwelling events on physical and chemical patterns in the central Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea)

The consequences of a coastal upwelling event on physical and chemical patterns were studied in the central Gulf of Finland. Weekly mapping of hydrographical and -chemical fields were carried out across the Gulf between Tallinn and Helsinki in July–August 2006. In each survey, vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were recorded at 27 stations and water samples for chemical analyses (PO₄³⁻, NO₂⁻+NO₃⁻) were collected at 14 stations along the transect. An ordinary distribution of hydrophysical and -chemical variables with the seasonal thermocline at the depths of 10–20 m was observed in the beginning of the measurements in July. Nutrient concentrations in the upper mixed layer were below the detection limit and nutriclines were located just below or in the lower part of the thermocline. In the first half of August, a very intense upwelling event occurred near the southern coast of the Gulf when waters with low temperature and high salinity from the intermediate layer surfaced. High nutrient concentrations were measured in the upwelled water – 0.4 μmol l⁻¹ of phosphates and 0.6 μmol l⁻¹ of nitrates+nitrites. We estimated the amount of nutrients transported into the surface layer as 238–290 tons of phosphorus (P)-PO₄³⁻ and 175–255 tons of N-NO_x for a 12 m thick, 20 km wide and 100 km long coastal stretch. Taking into account a characteristic along-shore extension of the upwelling of 200 km, the phosphate-phosphorus amount is approximately equal to the average total monthly riverine load of phosphorus to the Gulf of Finland. It is shown that TS-characteristics of water masses and vertical distribution of nutrients along the study transect experienced drastic changes caused by the upwelling event in the entire studied water column. TS-analysis of profiles obtained before and during the upwelling event suggests that while welled up, the cold intermediate layer water was mixed with the water from the upper mixed layer with a share of 85% and 15%. We suggest that the coastal upwelling events contribute remarkably to the vertical mixing of waters in the Gulf of Finland. Intrusions of nutrient-rich waters along the inclined isopycnal surfaces in the vicinity of upwelling front were revealed. The upwelling event widened the separation of phosphocline and nitracline which in turn prevented surfacing of nitrate+nitrite-nitrogen during the next upwelling event observed a week after the upwelling relaxation. A suggestion is made that such widening of nutricline separation caused by similar upwelling events in early summer could create favourable conditions for late summer cyanobacterial blooms.     

Spatial and temporal variability of Canadian seasonal precipitation (1900–2000)

Wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis are used to identify and describe spatial and temporal variability in Canadian seasonal precipitation, and to gain further insights into the dynamical relationship between the seasonal precipitation and the dominant modes of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Results from applying continuous wavelet transform to seasonal precipitation series from 201 stations selected from Environment Canada Meteorological Network reveal striking climate-related features before and after the 1940s. The span of available observations, 1900–2000, allows for depicting variance and covariance for periods up to 12 years. Scale-averaged wavelet power spectra are used to simultaneously assess the temporal and spatial variability in each set of 201 seasonal precipitation time series. The most striking feature, in the 2–3-year period and in the 3–6-year period—the 6–12-year period is dominated by white noise and is not considered further—is a net distinction between the timing and intensity of the temporal variability in autumn, winter and spring–summer precipitation. It is found that the autumn season exhibits the most intense activity (or variance) in both the 2–3 year and the 3–6 year periods. The winter season corresponds to the least intense activity for the 2–3 year period, but it exhibits more activity than the spring–summer for the 3–6 year period.Cross-wavelet analysis is provided between the seasonal precipitation and four selected climatic indices: the Pacific North America (PNA), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) originally called the Arctic Oscillation, and the sea surface temperature series over the Niño-3 region (ENSO). The wavelet cross-spectra revealed coherent space–time variability of the climate–precipitation relationship throughout Canada. It is shown that strong climate/precipitation activity (or covariance) in the 2–6 year period starts after 1940 whatever the climatic index and the season. Prior to year 1940, only local and weaker 2–6 year activity is revealed in western Canada essentially in winter and autumn, but overall a non-significant precipitation/climate relationship is observed prior to 1940. Correlation analysis in the 2–6 year band between the seasonal precipitation and the selected climatic indices revealed strong positive correlations with the ENSO, the NAO, and the NAM in eastern and western Canada for the post-1940 period. For the period prior to 1940, the correlation tend be negative for all the indices whatever the region. A particular feature in the correlation analysis results is the consistently stronger and positive NAM–precipitation correlations in all the regions since 1940. The cross-wavelet spectra and the correlation analysis in the 2–6 year band suggest the presence of a change point around 1940 in Canadian seasonal precipitation—that is found to be more likely related to NAM dynamics.     

Numerical simulation of a mesolow over a Gulf Stream filament

A three-dimensional mesoscale numerical model is used to investigate mesoscale circulation over a Gulf Stream filament. Two numerical experiments are performed with different initial uniform ambient wind speeds (U=0.1 m s^–1, 3.5 m s^–1 and 7 m s^–1) for a typical winter day. It is found that for both low and moderate winds, a closed mesoscale circulation forms over the Gulf Stream filament. When the Gulf Stream filament was removed, the model did not predict a mesoscale circulation. The modeled circulation over the filament is in agreement with the observations, suggesting that the atmospheric circulations over the filaments may be an important mechanism in the U.S. East Coast cyclogenesis.     

Hydrodynamic accumulation of Karenia off the west coast of Florida

Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellates, Karenia spp. occur nearly annually in the eastern Gulf of Mexico with cell abundances typically >10⁵ cells L⁻¹. Thermal and ocean color satellite imagery shows sea surface temperature patterns indicative of upwelling events and the concentration of chlorophyll at fronts along the west Florida continental shelf. Daily cell counts of Karenia show greater increases in cell concentrations at fronts than can be explained by Karenia's maximum specific growth rate. This is observed in satellite images as up to a 10-fold greater increase in chlorophyll biomass over 1–2 d periods than can be explained by in situ growth. In this study, we propose a model that explains why surface blooms of Karenia may develop even when nutrients on the west Florida shelf are low. In the summer, northward winds produce a net flow east and southeast bringing water and nutrients from the Mississippi River plume onto the west Florida shelf at depths of 20–50 m. This water mass supplies utilizable inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen that promote the growth of Karenia to pre-bloom concentrations in sub-surface waters in the mid-shelf region. In the fall, a change to upwelling favorable winds produces onshore transport. This transport, coupled with the swimming behavior of Karenia, leads to physical accumulation at frontal regions near the coast, resulting in fall blooms. Strong thermal fronts during the winter provide a mechanism for re-intensification of the blooms, if Karenia cells are located north of the fronts. This conceptual model leads to testable hypotheses on bloom development throughout the Gulf of Mexico.     

A baroclinic coastal trapped wave event in the Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea)

In this study, a baroclinic coastal trapped wave, with period ~?4.5 days and cross-shore scale ~?3 km, is identified in the outputs of a very-high-resolution ocean circulation model of the Campania coastal system (central Tyrrhenian Sea; including the Gulfs of Salerno, Naples, and Gaeta). The outputs are from a simulation spanning June 2003, a month in which the surface winds were always weak, except for a strong northeasterly wind event that lasted 1 day (20 June). This event is found to generate a strong upwelling along the Campania coasts, whose relaxation—virtually free, because of the weakness of the winds—produces coastal current fluctuations that propagate to the north, spanning the three gulfs. The dynamics (analyzed with a focus on the Gulf of Naples) is found to share important features with baroclinic Kelvin waves in a two-layer model, such as the sharp cross-shore decrease of the perturbation amplitude and the vertical reversal of the long-shore current velocities. The simulated phase speed, cross-shore extension, and wavelength of the perturbation are also close to those obtained using a two-layer approximation of the dynamics. Moreover, the propagation described by the models is shown to be compatible with current measurements that were made in June 2003 at the southern entrance of the Gulf of Naples. Experimental implications related to the specific oceanographic problem are finally discussed, and an experimental strategy—inspired by our modeling approach—aimed at identifying the phenomenon is proposed.     

Transport and deposition of plutonium in the ocean: evidence from Gulf of Mexico sediments

A study of sediments in the Gulf of Mexico shows dramatic gradients in Pu content and isotope ratios from the continental shelf to the Sigsbee Abyssal Plain. In terms of predicted direct fallout inventory of Pu, one shelf core contains 745% of the predicted inventory, while abyssal plain sediments contain only 15–20% of the predicted value. Absolute Pu concentrations of shelf sediments are also conspicuously high, up to 110 dpm/kg, compared to 13.5 dpm/kg in Mississippi River suspended sediment. There is no evidence of Pu remobilization in Gulf of Mexico shelf sediments, based on comparison of Pu profiles with Mn/Al and Fe/Al profiles. Horizontal transport of fallout nuclides from the open ocean to removal sites in ocean margin sediments is concluded to be the source of both the high concentrations and high inventories of Pu reported here.The shelf sediments show²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratios close to 0.179, the average stratospheric fallout value, but the ratios decrease progressively across the Gulf to low values of 0.06 in abyssal plain sediments. The source of low-ratio Pu in deep-water sediments may be debris from low yield tests transported in the troposphere. Alternatively, it may represent a fraction of the Pu from global stratospheric fallout which has been separated in the water column from the remainder of the Pu in the ocean. In either case, the low-ratio material must have been removed rapidly to the sea floor where it composes a major fraction of the Pu in abyssal plain sediments. Pu delivered by global atmospheric fallout from the stratosphere has apparently remained for the most part in the water or has been transported horizontally and removed into shallow-water sediments.     

Upper mixed layer temperature anomalies at the North Atlantic storm-track zone

Synoptic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) were determined as a result of separation of time scales smaller than 183 days. The SSTAs were investigated using daily data of ocean weather station “C” (52.75°N; 35.5°W) from 1 January 1976 to 31 December 1980 (1827 days). There were 47 positive and 50 negative significant SSTAs (lifetime longer than 3 days, absolute value greater than 0.10 °C) with four main intervals of the lifetime repetitions: 1. 4–7 days (45% of all cases), 2. 9–13 days (20-25%), 3. 14–18 days (10-15%), and 4. 21–30 days (10-15%) and with a magnitude 1.5-2.0 °C. An upper layer balance model based on equations for temperature, salinity, mechanical energy (with advanced parametrization), state (density), and drift currents was used to simulate SSTA. The original method of modelling taking into account the mean observed temperature profiles proved to be very stable. The model SSTAs are in a good agreement with the observed amplitudes and phases of synoptic SSTAs during all 5 years. Surface heat flux anomalies are the main source of SSTAs. The influence of anomalous drift heat advection is about 30-50% of the SSTA, and the influence of salinity anomalies is about 10-25% and less. The influence of a large-scale ocean front was isolated only once in February-April 1978 during all 5 years. Synoptic SSTAs develop just in the upper half of the homogeneous layer at each winter. We suggest that there are two main causes of such active sublayer formation: 1. surface heat flux in the warm sectors of cyclones and 2. predominant heat transport by ocean currents from the south. All frequency functions of the ocean temperature synoptic response to heat and momentum surface fluxes are of integral character (red noise), though there is strong resonance with 20-days period of wind-driven horizontal heat advection with mixed layer temperature; there are some other peculiarities on the time scales from 5.5 to 13 days. Observed and modelled frequency functions seem to be in good agreement.     

Hurricane-induced motions and interaction with ocean currents

Hurricanes produce mixing and flow divergences (and convergences) that alter the upper-ocean heat content (OHC), which in turn affects the storm. Ocean observations under a hurricane are rare, making it difficult to validate forecast models. Past research have mainly focused on OHC-changes by vertical mixing and tacitly assumed that horizontal transports are slowly varying. Moreover, effects of coastal boundaries on ocean responses to hurricanes are generally omitted. This work uses satellite data to detect and verify forecast isopycnal motions under hurricane Wilma (Oct/16–26/2005) in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The model is then used to show that Wilma-induced convergences in northwestern Caribbean Sea produce increased Yucatan-Channel transport into the Gulf ahead of the storm, and the Yucatan–Loop Current front diverts most of this heat around the Loop. This response is distinct from that of an ocean without the Loop, for which warming is widespread north of the channel. These intricate ocean responses can impact hurricane predictions.