Effect of fluctuations of the linear feedback coefficient on the frequency spectrum of averaged temperature in a simple energy balance climate model

Using the stochastic approach, we analyze the effect of fluctuations of the linear feedback coefficient in a simple zero-dimensional energy balance climate model on the frequency spectrum of averaged temperature. An expression is obtained for the model spectrum in the weak noise approximation. Its features are investigated in two cases: when the frequency spectrum of the feedback coefficient is a constant (white noise) and when the spectrum contains one resonant frequency and has a Lorentz form. We consider the issue whether the feedback coefficient fluctuations can be an independent mechanism for a qualitative change in the spectrum of the climate system.     

渤海导管架平台桩柱冰压力随机过程模型及其参数确定

首先分析了冰压力随机过程的特征及其产生机理,从而按冰的破坏形式将冰压力随机过程分为挤压破坏过程、屈曲破坏过程和弯曲破坏过程.从渤海海冰对平合桩柱作用大量实测冰压力曲线中选取37条典型的冰挤压破坏时程曲线,经谱分析确定了相应冰压力随机过程的谱密度及其谱参数;进一步经统计分析,建立了谱参数与冰厚的关系;在此基础上,建立了绕圆桩柱的冰压力随机场模型,并利用大量实测数据,经统计回归分析,确定了场函数的具体表达形式,由此用冰压力随机场可以容易地确定圆桩柱的总冰压力随机过程及其谱密度.     

基于拟层流风波生成机制的海浪谱模型

海浪谱的能量可以视为由具有不同相速度的谐波携带的能量所组成。基于对风波形成、发展过程的认识,认为各组成谐波的能量由谐波自平均风摄取而来,由此根据拟层流模型推导出谐波能量密度的计算公式,建立以等效风速和峰值频率等为基本参数的海浪谱模型——随机Fourier函数模型,并给出了确定谐波频率、波长、相速度、振幅以及等效风速等模型参数的原则和计算方法。在59个实测样本谱基础上,采用随机建模方法确定模型参数的取值及其概率分布。结果表明,海浪谱模型可以很好地预测谱能,所计算的物理谱与实测谱均值吻合良好。     

作用于平台桩腿的海冰屈曲破坏冰压力随机过程模型及其参数确定

冰对结构的作用过程是典型的随机过程。本文在冰压力过程为平稳过程的假设下，从渤海海冰对平台桩腿作用的大量实测冰压力数据中，选取了２１条冰屈曲破坏时的冰压力时程曲线，对它们进行谱分析后，得到了单点冰屈曲破坏的压力随机过程的谱密度，并确定了谱参数及其跟环境要素的关系，依据文献［１］中冰压力沿圆柱面的空间分布，建立了绕桩腿的冰压力随机场模型，并得到了作用于桩腿的总冰力随机过程及其谱密度。本文的研究成果为平台结构冰激随机振动和疲劳累积损伤分析提供了荷载基础     

Dynamic Response Analysis of Risers Subjected to Combined Wave and Current Loading

A dynamic response analysis in the frequency domain is presented for risers subjected to combined wave and current loading. Considering the effects of current, a modified wave spectrum is adopted to compute the linearized drag force. An additional drag force convolution term is added to the linearized drag force spectrum, therefore the error is reduced which arises from the truncation of higher order terms in the drag force auto-correlation function. An expression of linearized drag force spectrum is given taking the relative velocity into account. It is found that the additional term is a fold convolution integral. In this paper dynamic responses of risers are investigated, while the influence of floater motion on risers is considered. The results demonstrate that the accuracy of the present method reaches the degree required in time domain analysis.     

Non-linear analysis of a dynamically positioned platform in stochastic seaway

Safety is the topmost priority considered by the designers of floating systems or any other structural systems. Reliability, economy and environmental pollutions and the liability of the structure in the case of accidents are also considered by the designers. The paper concentrates on the non-linear behavior of a moored floating platform in stochastic seaway generated using the Pierson–Moskowitz spectrum. Second-order wave forces (slow drift force) acting on the structure is considered as they contribute to a major percentage of the excursion of a large platform. Wave drift damping and skin friction damping have also been considered.It has been shown that the principal frequency of the second-order motion of the platform due to drift forces closely matches the natural frequency of the system in surge motion. This has been subsequently used in tuning a PID (proportionate integral and differential)-based control system for the surge mode, where reduction in the order of 90% has been observed.     

Measurement of directional spectrum of wind waves using an array of wave detectors

A method is proposed to estimate the true directional spectrum of wind waves by making use of more than four wave detectors. The true spectrum of wind waves whose wave lengths lie between about 1.1 and 2.6 times the largest span between the wave gauges can be recovered with an error less than 0.5 %. An additional wave gauge with fixed maximum span extends its effectivity to shorter wave lengths, but does not effect the upper limit of wave length.The method is based on the fact that the spectrum estimated byBarber (1961) is connected with true directional spectrum by the Fredholm integral equation of the first kind if the wave component satisfies the dispersion relation. Solving the equation by using the Fourier series method, we can get true spectrum.     

Long-term trends in pelagic environments of the east sea ecosystem

Physical and biological environmental variations in the East Sea were investigated by analysing time-series of oceanographic data and meteorological indices. From 1971 to 2000, dominant periodicity in water temperature variations had two apparent periods of 3 to 4 years and of decades, especially in the southwestern part of the East Sea affected by the influence of inflowing Tsushima warm current. Fluctuating water temperature within a certain period appears to respond to El Niño events with a time lag. It was found that there was a strong correlation between water temperature and El Niño events with a time lag of 1.5 and 5.5 years for periods of 3 to 6 years and of decades, respectively. Corresponding with El Niño events, water temperature variability also showed strong correlation with shift and/or changes in biological and chemical environments of nutrient concentrations, zooplankton biomass, and fisheries. However, there also occurred a short-term periodicity of water temperature variations. Within a period of 1 to 4 years, a relatively short-term cycle of water temperature variation had strong correlation with other climate indices such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation and monsoon index. After comparing coherence and phase spectrum between water temperature and different climate indices, we found that there was a shift of coherent periods to another climate index during the years when climate regime shift was reported.     

North Atlantic Oscillation: Description,Mechanisms, and Influence on the Eurasian Climate

The present work is devoted to the characteristic of the North-Atlantic Oscillation and the analysis of the state-of-the-art of this problem. In the survey section of the work, we deal with the following issues: the definition of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations, their interaction with oceanic processes, and their influence on the variations of climate in Eurasia. In addition, by using the COADS (Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set) data and the data on the discharge of European and Asian rivers, we establish some new original results. It is confirmed that the anomalies of the sea-surface temperature are consequences of the integral response of the ocean to the preceding atmospheric actions and that the spectra of these anomalies are characterized by the presence of significant peaks within the band of periods of 10–20 yr. These periods correspond to inherent oceanic variability. The atmospheric response manifests itself in the form of abnormal conditions over the catchment areas of European and Asian rivers, which leads to oscillations of their discharges. As a result of the intensification of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the displacement of the centers of action of the atmosphere in the 60–90s of the previous century, the influence of this oscillation on the climatic conditions in the European-Asian region became more intense.     

基于现场实测的渤海风速特性研究

风荷载是影响海洋结构物设计和安全服役最为显著的环境因素之一。利用在役海洋平台监测系统对渤海风速场展开长期监测,获得了长期的风速信息。对极值风速进行分析,利用极值Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ型分布对风速极值的概率密度进行拟合。基于极值Ⅰ型概率分布,获得了渤海海域重现期为5 a、10 a、30 a和50 a的最大风速值。对年最大风速的脉动风分量、湍流强度、阵风因子进行了分析。考虑高频分量的影响,利用小波变换,得到了脉动风速的近似分量和细节分量,计算了实测风速的纵向和横向的空间积分尺度。对比经验脉动风谱与实测脉动风谱,证明了Davenport风速谱能够较好地拟合渤海现场风速场。     

Deterministic and stochastic evolution equations for fully dispersive and weakly nonlinear waves

This paper presents a new and more accurate set of deterministic evolution equations for the propagation of fully dispersive, weakly nonlinear, irregular, multidirectional waves. The equations are derived directly from the Laplace equation with leading order nonlinearity in the surface boundary conditions. It is demonstrated that previous fully dispersive formulations from the literature have used an inconsistent linear relation between the velocity potential and the surface elevation. As a consequence these formulations are accurate only in shallow water, while nonlinear transfer of energy is significantly underestimated for larger wave numbers. In the present work we correct this inconsistency. In addition to the improved deterministic formulation, we present improved stochastic evolution equations in terms of the energy spectrum and the bispectrum for multidirectional waves. The deterministic and stochastic formulations are solved numerically for the case of cross shore motion of unidirectional waves and the results are verified against laboratory data for wave propagation over submerged bars and over a plane slope. Outside the surf zone the two model predictions are generally in good agreement with the measurements, and it is found that the accuracy of e.g., the energy spectrum and of the third-order statistics is considerably improved by the new formulations, particularly outside the shallow-water range.     

Development of the Western Boundary Undercurrent at Eirik Drift related to changing climate since the early Miocene

Eirik Drift lies on the slope south of Greenland, where it has been formed under the influence of the Western Boundary Undercurrent (WBUC) closely downstream of its origin in the deep-water formation centres of the Nordic Seas. Therefore, the sediment record at Eirik Drift documents modifications in pathways and intensity of the WBUC. These modifications reflect alterations in deep-water formation in the Nordic Seas and are therefore coupled with climate changes. Based on the seismostratigraphic analysis of sedimentary architecture identified in a set of high-resolution seismic reflection data, we have reconstructed the palaeocirculation of the WBUC at Eirik Drift since the early Miocene. We revealed a strong WBUC during warm climate conditions, and in phases of climate cooling with enhanced sea-ice extent we interpreted weak WBUC influence. We suggest a southward shift of the deep-water formation regions along with a shift of the deep current system during the cool phases. This shift implies that the main North Atlantic Deep Water route affected Eirik Drift only during warm phases and that during cool phases weak branches of the circulation system flowed over Eirik Drift.     

Decadal-Scale Climate and Ecosystem Interactions in the North Pacific Ocean

Decadal-scale climate variations in the Pacific Ocean wield a strong influence on the oceanic ecosystem. Two dominant patterns of large-scale SST variability and one dominant pattern of large-scale thermocline variability can be explained as a forced oceanic response to large-scale changes in the Aleutian Low. The physical mechanisms that generate this decadal variability are still unclear, but stochastic atmospheric forcing of the ocean combined with atmospheric teleconnections from the tropics to the midlatitudes and some weak ocean-atmosphere feedbacks processes are the most plausible explanation. These observed physical variations organize the oceanic ecosystem response through large-scale basin-wide forcings that exert distinct local influences through many different processes. The regional ecosystem impacts of these local processes are discussed for the Tropical Pacific, the Central North Pacific, the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension, the Bering Sea, the Gulf of Alaska, and the California Current System regions in the context of the observed decadal climate variability. The physical ocean-atmosphere system and the oceanic ecosystem interact through many different processes. These include physical forcing of the ecosystem by changes in solar fluxes, ocean temperature, horizontal current advection, vertical mixing and upwelling, freshwater fluxes, and sea ice. These also include oceanic ecosystem forcing of the climate by attenuation of solar energy by phytoplankton absorption and atmospheric aerosol production by phytoplankton DMS fluxes. A more complete understanding of the complicated feedback processes controlling decadal variability, ocean ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling requires a concerted and organized long-term observational and modeling effort. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

桩群上的最大总波浪力

桩群上的总波浪力基于线性化的Morison方程,作用在桩群上(图1)的总波浪力F(t)及总波力矩M(t)为:.     

Extraction of ocean wave parameters from HF backscatter received bya four-element array: analysis and application

An algorithm that would extend the capabilities of a four-element square array known as the Coastal Oceans Dynamics Applications Radar (CODAR) to include the yielding of directional wave-height spectra from backscattered radiation is addressed. General expressions for the first- and second-order broadbeam radar cross-sections of the ocean surface are applied to the array. A Fourier-basis-function approach allows the broadbeam cross-sections to be written as a system of integral equations. The second-order radar return involves a double integral whose integrand contains nonlinear combinations of the unknowns, namely, the Fourier coefficients of the ocean wave directional spectrum. The first-order portion of the radar spectrum is used to linearize this integral. The matrix system then formulated is solved using a singular value decomposition (SVD) approach, and the resulting ocean spectral coefficients are used to give the directional spectrum. Test results for the algorithm are reported and discussed     

MAXIMUM TOTAL WAVE FORCES ON PILE GROUPS

By using the concept of the joint probability distribution of independent stochastic variables, this paper gives an analysis of the maximum total wave forces on pile groups due to irregular wave action on the basis of Ref. [ 1 ].Methods for calculating the maximum total wave forces on pile groups considering both the wave energy spectrum and the directional wave spectrum are also given in this paper. Special computer programs MAXTOTWAF-PGZ-1 and MAXTOTWAF-PGZ-2 are developed for the purpose of calculation.     

藻类生态系统的随机稳定性研究

为了研究随机干扰因素与藻类生态系统稳定性之间的相互关系,运用随机非线性理论建立了藻类—营养盐的随机非线性动力学模型,采用随机平均法和奇异边界理论对模型的稳定性进行了分析,结果表明随机因素对稳定性的影响很大。随机因素可以使系统稳定性发生质的变化。     

Stochastic Response Analysis of Piled Offshore Platforms to Earthquake Load

- In this paper, using the theory of stochastic analysis of the response to earthquake load, a stochastic analysis method of the response of piled platforms to earthquake load has been established. In the method, the strong ground motion is considered as three dimensional stationary white noise process and the pile-soil interaction and water-structure interaction are considered. The stochastic response of a typical platform to eqrthquake load has been computed with this method and the results compared with those obtained with the response spectrum analysis method. The comparison shows that the stochastic analysis method of the response of piled platforms to earthquake load is suitable for this kind of analysis.     

Frequency of maxima of non-narrow banded stochastic processes

In many engineering problems one deals with quantities that must be considered to be of a stochastic or random nature. This is true for the natural environment such as wind, waves, and earthquakes, which are the driving mechanism behind the loadings on a wide variety of land-based and offshore structures. From a design perspective it is important to determine the expected highest value of a stochastic process, and structural fatigue life. The relevant procedures are reasonably well established for processes that have narrow band spectra, but it is much less clear how to deal with non-narrow band cases. In this paper it is shown that the extremes of a Gaussian, non-narrow band process are asymptotically equal to the extremes calculated according to the narrow band formula. Also demonstrated is that fatigue estimates may, with good accuracy, be based on the narrow band formula unless the bandwidth becomes extremely large. These statements are illustrated by examples of a process with (1) a low pass box spectrum, and (2) a Pierson–Moskowitz wave amplitude spectrum. It is also shown that the bandwidth parameter may in some cases be counter-intuitive, as the Pierson–Moskowitz spectrum has a larger bandwidth parameter than the box spectrum, even when both cover the same frequency range.     

海洋表面偶极子辐射模型的噪声场时空相关函数的计算

由于海面噪声源都可以抽象成偶极子辐射源,因此,研究海水表面偶极子辐射模型的噪声場的时空相关函数是有实际意义的。 设偶极子辐射源均勻而独立地分布在海水表面上,其辐射谱为S,则具有时延为的两点