High frequency variability of current in the western channel of the Tsushima/Korea Straits

The temporal characteristics and spatial structures of high frequency variability of the current in the western channel of the Tsushima/Korea Straits (TKS) are studied using ADCP data from 10?years along the cruise line of a regular ferry, “Camilla”, between Busan and Hakata. The eddy kinetic energy analysis shows that the high frequency variability has strong seasonal and spatial dependencies. From December to April, the variability is prominent in the entire western channel of the TKS. From July to October, it is enhanced only in the Korean coastal zone. The EOF analysis for the component of the high frequency currents normal to the ferry route illuminates three types of dominant modes, a transport mode and a vortex mode in the western channel during December–April, and a baroclinic coastal-trapped mode in the Korean coastal zone during July–October. The transport mode with a uniform current direction throughout the channel shows good correlation with the high frequency variability of the volume transport through the western channel with dominant time scales of 3.5 and 7?days. The vortex mode with alternating current directions across the channel explains well the variability of the eddy vorticity in the western channel with dominant time scales of 5–8?days. The baroclinic coastal-trapped mode in the Korean coastal zone has characteristics of both baroclinic Kelvin wave and topographic Rossby wave in the vertical current structure with dominant time scales of 14 and 32?days.     

Interannual and seasonal variability of hydrometeorological fields in some regions of the Atlantic-European sector as a manifestation of the abnormal behaviour of the North-Atlantic Oscillation

We study the interannual and seasonal variability of hydrometeorological fields in some regions of the Atlantic-European sector. These low-frequency processes are analyzed depending on the index ΔP (an analog of the index of the North-Atlantic Oscillation). It is shown that the average value of the index ΔP over the winter natural synoptic season can be used for the determination of stable locations of the centre of the Azorean maximum in 1971–1980 and 1981–1990, the typical state of cloudiness in the Atlantic-European sector, and the fields of precipitations and atmospheric temperature in some regions of the Crimea. Typical anomalies of the fields of precipitations and atmospheric temperature over the west and south coasts of the Crimea are described. The signs of the anomalies of precipitations in the winter natural synoptic season are in good agreement with the signs of the corresponding anomalies of the field of cloudiness in the Black-Sea region. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Sea surface height variability in the Rio de la Plata estuary from synoptic to inter-annual scales: Results of numerical simulations

A long term simulation of the barotropic circulation in the Río de la Plata estuary was performed with the aim of identifying the characteristic patterns of sea surface height (SSH) variability from synoptic to inter-annual time scales and their forcing mechanisms. Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HamSOM), forced by tides, monthly mean runoffs and 4-daily 10 m winds and surface atmospheric pressure from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis was run. The solution was analyzed for the period 1965–2004. Inter-annual variability accounts for almost 10% of the variance. The first EOF mode of SSH variability on this time scale is associated with a mean anomaly of approximately 0.25 m at the upper estuary forced by both runoff and winds, which seems to be strongly associated with the ENSO cycles. Other two modes, with periodicities around 2.5 and 10 years were also found. Even though they are linked to weaker SSH anomalies, they are consistent with inter-annual modes of wind variability reported by other authors. Those modes are important, particularly if they act in phase, because they can provide a background for stronger surges. In contrast with the salinity field, SSH variability on seasonal time scales accounts for a very small percentage of variance and it is the combination of an annual and a semi-annual signal forced by winds and runoff, respectively. Approximately 90% of the variance is due to wind driven variability on sub-annual time scales. The most significant SSH anomalies in this band are associated with cyclogenetic events in the atmosphere, occurring either over Uruguay or over the Patagonian Shelf, whereas the strengthening or weakening of the semi-permanent South Atlantic anticyclone displays a relatively smaller influence. In agreement with previous publications, the estuary's spatial patterns in response to short-scale wind variability seem to be determined by wind direction more than by wind speed.     

Analysis of variability of the CO, NO2, and O3 contents in the troposphere near St. Petersburg

The space-time variability of the fields of CO, NO₂, and O₃ concentrations and contents in the troposphere of northwestern Russia is analyzed on the basis of experimental data and the results of numerical modeling. The influence that the St. Petersburg emission has on the concentrations and contents of CO, NO₂, and O₃ in the troposphere is estimated for March 2006. A comparison of the measurements of the total CO content and the tropospheric NO₂ content with the results of modeling showed a qualitative and, in come cases, quantitative agreement between the results of calculations and experimental data. When synoptic conditions are determined, the St. Petersburg train can be detected at a distance of more than 300 km, which can affect the atmospheric air quality in adjacent countries.     

北极海冰变率的独特模式及其与大气强迫的关系

The spatial structure of the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC) variability and the connection to atmospheric as well as radiative forcing during winter and summer for the 1979–2017 period are investigated. The interannual variability with different spatial characteristics of SIC in summer and winter is extracted using the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The present study confirms that the atmospheric circulation has a strong influence on the SIC through both dynamic and thermodynamic processes, as the heat flux anomalies in summer are radiatively forced while those in winter contain both radiative and "circulation-induced" components. Thus,atmospheric fluctuations have an explicit and extensive influence to the SIC through complex mechanisms during both seasons. Moreover, analysis of a variety of atmospheric variables indicates that the primary mechanism about specific regional SIC patterns in Arctic marginal seas are different with special characteristics.     

Subseasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system

The operational climate forecast system （CFS） of the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction provides climate predictions over the world, and CFS products are becoming an important source of information for regional climate predictions in many Asian countries where monsoon climate dominates. Recent studies have shown that, on monthly-to-seasonal time-scales, the CFS is highly skillful in simulating and predicting the variability of the Asian monsoon. The higher-frequency variability of the Asian summer monsoon in the CFS is analyzed, using output from a version with a spectral triangular truncation of 126 waves in horizontal and 64 sigma layers in vertical, focusing on synoptic, quasi-biweekly, and intraseasonal time-scales. The onset processes of different regional monsoon components were investigated within Asia. Although the CFS generally overestimates variability of monsoon on these time-scales, it successfully captures many major features of the variance patterns, especially for the synoptic timescale. The CFS also captures the timing of summer monsoon onsets over India and the Indo-China Peninsula. However, it encounters difficulties in simulating the onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The success and failure of the CFS in simulating the onset of monsoon precipitation can also be seen from the associated features of simulated atmospheric circulation processes. Overall, the CFS is capable of simulating the synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon with skills. As for seasonal-tointerannual time-scales shown previously, the model is expected to possess a potential for skillful predictions of the high-frequency variability of the Asian monsoon.     

Optimal Perturbations with Zero Potential Vorticity in the Eady Model

The problem of finding optimal perturbations, which are perturbations with a maximum ratio of the final energy to the initial energy, is considered in the Eady model of baroclinic instability. The solution to the problem uses explicit expressions for the energy functional, which are functions of parameters of an initial perturbation. For perturbations with zero potential vorticity, the basic parameters are the amplitudes of the initial buoyancy distributions at the boundaries of the atmospheric layer and a phase shift between these distributions. Dependences of the optimal phase shift and maximum energy ratio on the wave number and time optimization are determined using an analysis for extremum. The parameters of the optimal perturbations are compared with those of the growing normal modes. It is found that only one exponentially growing mode is an optimal perturbation.     

Urban and ocean ensembles for improved meteorological and dispersion modelling of the coastal zone

A high-resolution (1.67 km) ensemble transform (ET)-based meso-scale modelling system utilizing urbanization and sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations is used to examine characteristics of sea breeze/heat island interactions and atmospheric transport and dispersion for Tokyo. The ensemble displays a positive spread–skill relationship, with the addition of urban perturbations enabling the ensemble variance to distinguish a larger range of forecast error variances. Two synoptic regimes are simulated. For a pre-frontal period (stronger synoptic flow), there is less variability among ensemble members in the strength of the urban heat island and its interaction with the sea breeze front. During the post-frontal time period, the sea breeze frontal position is very sensitive to the details of the urban representation, with horizontal frontal variation covering the width of the urban centre (∼30 km) and displaying significant impacts on the development and strength of the heat island. Moreover, the dosage values of a tracer released at offshore and urban sites have considerable variability among ensemble members in response to small-scale features such as coastally upwelled water, enhanced anthropogenic heating and variations in building heights. Realistic variations in SST (i.e. warm Tokyo Bay or local upwelling) produce subtle sea breeze variations that dramatically impact tracer distributions.     

The statistical structure of synoptic variability ocean currents at the continental slope of the Laptev Sea and features of their generation by anemobaric forces

Based on vector-algebraic analysis of random processes, we study the statistical structure of the synoptic variability of currents measured by an ADCP in the upper mixed layer in the central part of the continental slope of the Laptev Sea in 2006–2007. The results of statistical analysis show that in some cases the synoptic currents in the surface layer of the sea are signs of wind drift currents. This is indicated by the high correlation between the tangential friction of wind and currents, as well as the reversal of the depth of current vectors and the major axes of the ellipses of the mean-square deviation of the Ekman spiral. Due to the large variability of wind flows and stratification of water masses, the penetration depth of these currents is small and varies from 6 to 30 m, with pronounced seasonal variation. In deeper layers, no relationship between the currents and anemobaric forces is traced. It is concluded that the fluctuations of synoptic scale currents in the area of the continental slope of the Laptev Sea represent a superposition of Ekman drift currents and movements associated with free baroclinic Kelvin waves. These currents are the dominant contributor in the upper 30-m layer of the ocean, while waves play a key role in deeper waters.     

Synoptic-scale disturbances over the northern South China Sea and their responses to El Niño

Using surface and aerological meteorological observations obtained at the Xisha Automatic Weather Station and three moored buoys along the continental slope, characteristics of the synoptic-scale disturbances over the northern South China Sea (NSCS) are extensively studied. The power spectra of surface and aerological observations suggest a synoptic feature with a pronounced energy peak at a period of 5-8 d and a weak peak at 3-4 d. The standard deviation of the synoptic temperature component derived at Xisha Station from 1976 to 2011 indicates that the strongest variability normally exists in August all through the whole troposphere. At the interannual scale, it is found that El Niño plays an important role in regulating the synoptic disturbances of atmosphere. The vertical synoptic disturbances have a double active peak following El Niño condition. The first peak usually occurs during the mature phase of El Niño, and the second one occurs in the summer of decay year. Comparing with the summer of developing years, the summer of the decaying year of El Niño has more active and stronger synoptic disturbances, especially for the 5-8 d period variations.     

南印度洋偶极子及其影响研究进展

回顾了对南印度洋副热带海气相互作用的研究,总结了南印度洋偶极子事件背景下的气候变化。印度洋海表温度的方差表明南印度洋是整个印度洋海温变率最强的区域,年际海温变化最显著的特征就是海温呈现西南—东北向的偶极子型分布,被称为南印度洋偶极子(Southern Indian Ocean Dipole, SIOD)。南印度洋海温偶极子的形成主要是受大尺度大气环流调整的影响。南印度洋副热带反气旋环流异常引起了印度洋热带东风异常和副热带西风异常的变化,影响了潜热通量、上升流和Ekman热输送,进而引起了海温变化。SIOD对热带和热带外大气环流也有影响,尤其会影响亚洲夏季风降水异常,例如我国的降水异常和南印度洋偶极子海温异常具有显著相关关系。此外,SIOD模态所引起的经向环流异常与南海、菲律宾地区的反气旋环流异常也有紧密联系。     

Propagation of wind and buoyancy forced density anomalies in the North Pacific: Dependence on ocean model resolution

The response of the thermocline to changes in atmospheric forcing are explored in two 50-year hindcast North Pacific model runs. The model runs only differ in their resolution and horizontal viscosity values. The thermocline response is explored through a modal decomposition. The first baroclinic mode response is qualitatively similar in both model runs, with a somewhat smaller response in the lower resolution model. This mode is primarily wind driven. The second baroclinic mode shows a larger response at midlatitudes in the low-resolution model than in the higher resolution model. This is consistent with the presence of very large-scale baroclinic instability in the return flow of the subtropical gyre at low-resolution, and represents a spurious response of the ocean model to large horizontal viscosity. This spurious mode of decadal variability in the thermocline is maintained even when there is variability in atmospheric forcing. This result suggests that care must be taken in interpretation of the realism of mid-latitude modes of variability centered in western boundary current extensions of coupled ocean–atmosphere models.     

Variability of the meridional transport processes in the Southern Ocean and its possible relation to El Niño

The article deals with the influence of wind and atmospheric pressure on the barotropic variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). This effect is studied using a global barotropic model under idealized and realistic atmospheric forcings. The results of barotropic modeling demonstrate that variations in the wind forcing over the ACC, together with the effects of the topography and coastline, lead to the variability in the meridional water flux in the Southern Ocean. The variability of these fluxes is negatively correlated with the wind strength over the ACC. A possible link between the short-period variability of the water flux in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean and El Niño is demonstrated using 3D ocean modeling and correlation analysis. It is shown that the variability of the meridional water flux caused by atmospheric perturbations over the ACC can lead to short-period density anomalies in the Southern Ocean north of 47°S, which later can be transferred to low latitudes by means of the wave mechanism described in [15] and strongly influence the tropical region.     

1980～1999年热带太平洋次表层盐度年际变化同化数据分析

通过统计方法利用一套海洋同化数据分析了热带太平洋次表层的盐度变化特征.结果表明次表层盐度的年际变化与ENSO相关,且次表层盐度信号区域呈东西方向“跷跷板”的分布.对影响这些次表层的盐度信号区域平均的纬向平流、经向平流、垂直运动和淡水通量异常等因素进行了分析,并且与影响表层盐度年际变化模态的影响因素差异进行了比较,结果表明,纬向平流的异常对表层盐度的异常变化影响较大,而对次表层盐度异常有较大影响的是海水的垂直运动异常.     

First and second baroclinic mode responses of the tropical Indian Ocean to interannual equatorial wind anomalies

The combined and individual responses of the first and second baroclinic mode dynamics of the tropical Indian Ocean to the well-known Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) wind anomalies are investigated. The IOD forced first baroclinic Rossby waves arrive at the western boundary in three months, while the reflected component from the eastern boundary with opposite phase arrives in five to six months, both carry input energy to the west. The inclusion of the second baroclinic mode slows down the wave propagation by mode coupling and stretches the energy spectrum to a relatively longer time scale. The total energy exists in the equatorial wave guide for at least five months from the forcing, as much as 10% of that of the atmospheric input, which mainly dissipates at the western boundary. The individual responses of the ocean to IOD interannual wind anomaly show that the significant modes of oceanic anomalies are confined to a wave guide of 10° on either side of the equator.     

Interdecadal climate regime dynamics in the North Pacific Ocean: theories, observations and ecosystem impacts

Basin-scale variations in oceanic physical variables are thought to organize patterns of biological response across the Pacific Ocean over decadal time scales. Different physical mechanisms can be responsible for the diverse basin-scale patterns of sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, thermocline depth, and horizontal currents, although they are linked in various ways. In light of various theories and observations, we interpret observed basinwide patterns of decadal-scale variations in upper-ocean temperatures. Evidence so far indicates that large-scale perturbations of the Aleutian Low generate temperature anomalies in the central and eastern North Pacific through the combined action of net surface heat flux, turbulent mixing and Ekman advection. The surface-forced temperature anomalies in the central North Pacific subduct and propagate southwestwards in the ocean thermocline to the subtropics but apparently do not reach the equator. The large-scale Ekman pumping resulting from changes of the Aleutian Low forces western-intensified thermocline depth anomalies that are approximately consistent with Sverdrup theory. These thermocline changes are associated with SST anomalies in the Kuroshio/Oyashio Extension that are of the same sign as those in the central North Pacific, but lagged by several years. The physics of the possible feedback from the SST anomalies to the Aleutian Low, which might close a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode of decadal variability, is poorly understood and is an area of active research. The possible responses of North Pacific Ocean ecosystems to these complicated physical patterns is summarized.     

Interannual variability of Kelvin wave propagation in the wave guides of the equatorial Indian Ocean,the coastal Bay of Bengal and the southeastern Arabian Sea during 1993–2006

The observed variability of the Kelvin waves and their propagation in the equatorial wave guide of the Indian Ocean and in the coastal wave guides of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the southeastern Arabian Sea (AS) on seasonal to interannual time scales during years 1993–2006 is examined utilizing all the available satellite and in-situ measurements. The Kelvin wave regime inferred from the satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) shows a distinct annual cycle composed of two pairs of alternate upwelling (first one occurring during January–March and the second one occurring during August–September) and downwelling (first one occurring during April–June and the second one occurring during October–December) Kelvin waves that propagate eastward along the equator and hit the Sumatra coast and bifurcate. The northern branches propagate counterclockwise over varied distances along the coastal wave guide of the BoB. The potential mechanisms that contribute to the mid-way termination of the first upwelling and the first downwelling Kelvin waves in the wave guide of the BoB are hypothesized. The second downwelling Kelvin wave alone reaches the southeastern AS, and it shows large interannual variability caused primarily by similar variability in the equatorial westerly winds during boreal fall. The westward propagating downwelling Rossby waves triggered by the second downwelling Kelvin wave off the eastern rim of the BoB also shows large interannual variability in the near surface thermal structure derived from SODA analysis. The strength of the equatorial westerlies driven by the east–west gradient of the heat sources in the troposphere appears to be a critical factor in determining the observed interannual variability of the second downwelling Kelvin wave in the wave guides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, the coastal BoB, and the southeastern AS.     

Rapid changes of the oceanic circulation in a hierarchy of ocean models

The response time of the large-scale oceanic circulation due to freshwater perturbations is investigated with models of different complexity. A three-dimensional ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and a zonally averaged ocean model are employed. In order to distinguish advection and diffusion from fast baroclinic processes (e.g. waves in the OGCM) a color tracer is injected at the same time and location as the freshwater discharges. In spite of the inability of the zonally averaged model to represent wave processes in a realistic way similarities with the OGCM are found for the propagation patterns of density anomalies and of color tracer. In the OGCM as well as in the zonally averaged model, density anomalies propagate faster than anomalies of a passive color tracer in the case of vertical density stratification. The progression of density anomalies leads to changes of the oceanic circulation, and both oceanic models exhibit circulation changes in areas distant from the discharge places long before the passively entrained color tracer has reached these regions. The fact that a zonally averaged model simulates baroclinic processes faster than advection even if internal gravity waves are not represented due to neglected acceleration terms, is clarified with a conceptual box model.     

Estimates of the characteristics of the horizontal turbulent exchange in the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean

Estimates of the characteristics of the horizontal turbulent exchange (coefficients of horizontal exchange, scales of deviations of the velocity of geostrophic currents from the background flows, and horizontal scales of perturbations) in the upper ocean layer were obtained on the basis of the data of expeditions held in 1978 and 1980 in the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean. It is shown that the characteristics of the horizontal turbulent exchange strongly depend on the structure of the background flows, and one of the causes of their variability is related to tropical cyclones. A tendency to a decrease (to different degrees) of the turbulent coefficients in the wake of a tropical cyclone is noted.     

Vertical structure variability in a seasonal simulation of a medium-resolution regional model of the Eastern South Pacific

A seasonal simulation from a medium-resolution ocean general circulation mode (OGCM) is used to investigate the vertical structure variability of the Southeast Pacific (SEP). The focus is on the extra-tropical Rossby wave (ETRW) variability and associated forcing mechanism. Some aspects of the model mean state are validated from available observations, which justifies a vertical mode decomposition of the model variability. The analysis of the baroclinic mode contributions to sea level indicates that the gravest mode is dominant over most of the domain at all frequencies. Annual variability is on average twice as large as the semi-annual variability which is confined near the coast for all the modes. The first baroclinic mode contribution to the annual cycle exhibits a clear westward propagation north of the critical latitude. The higher-order modes only contribute near the coast where they are associated with vertically propagating energy. The residual variability, which is the energy at all timescales other than annual and semi-annual periods peaks offshore between 20°S and 30°S for all baroclinic modes. The third baroclinic mode also exhibits a relative maximum variability off the coast of Peru south of the critical latitude of the annual cycle (13°S), where the Peru–Chile Undercurrent is the most intense. Sensitivity experiments to the atmospheric and boundary forcing suggest that the residual variability results from the non-linear interaction between annual Rossby waves and the mean flow, while the annual ETRWs in the model result from the summed-contribution from both the local wind stress and remote equatorial forcing. Overall the study extends the classical analysis of sea level variability in the SEP based on linear theory, and suggests that the peculiarities of the baroclinic modes need to be taken into account for interpreting the sea level variability and understanding its connection with the equatorial variability.