北极地区油气资源的空间分布状况及特征分析

近年来,北极地区油气资源备受瞩目,北极地区油气资源开发利用开展得如火如荼,为北极国家能源产量增长带来了新的契机。文章以北极国家为出发点,采用文献梳理法,系统研究俄罗斯、美国、挪威、加拿大等北极国家在北极地区的油气资源勘探、开发情况;采用统计分析法,分析北极地区待发现油气资源与已发现油气资源的空间分布特征。研究发现,北极地区的油气资源在空间上呈现出极不均衡的特点。伴随着油气勘探技术的突破以及北极航道的逐渐开通,北极国家纷纷加快北极地区油气开发活动的进程,目前北极国家油气开发活动主要在陆地,而未来将逐步迈向北极近海。中国作为北极事物的重要利益攸关方,可以积极与北极国家开展合作,进而参与到北极地区油气资源的开发进程。     

Lessons in regional cooperation from the arctic

The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum for the Arctic states, which have an outreach beyond the Arctic circle. It is a unique international regime for cooperation among governments and indigenous peoples. The Arctic Council has a very light administration and no obligatory funding. The Host Country of the Council provides a Secretariat and serves as a hub in a network in active operation. Projects are administered by a lead partner, often a Member State or a Indigenous people's organisation. Most of the work is done in Working Groups of Experts. In 1998, The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme delivered a science-based Assessment Report on Arctic Pollution Issues. This report has influenced strongly on the global negotiations on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals. The Stockholm Convention on POPs 2001 is a significant step forward for the protection of the Arctic environment and for people living in the Arctic, who are dependent on harvesting as a central source of livelihood. The Arctic Council has adopted a Regional Plan of Action, which follows the UNEP methodology on the Protection of the Marine Environment from land-based activities. In June 2001, a report on the status and conservation of Flora and Fauna was delivered to the Arctic Council by the experts, who were requested to prepare recommendations on biodiversity conservation on the basis of the status report. The most important project for the time being is the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Close to 200 climate scientific experts from 11 countries are participating in the project, which will deliver its final report in 2004. Science-based decision making is an Arctic Council brand. In addition, the Council takes into account traditional knowledge provided by indigenous peoples. The overall goal is to enhance sustainable development in the Arctic. The Council contributes to a better knowledge base for decision-making. Political recommendations are agreed upon unanimously. Much of the implementation is done by the member states themselves and appropriate international organisations. The ambition is to integrate sustainable development principles into all activities and projects under the auspices of the Arctic Council.     

Enhancement/reduction of biological pump depends on ocean circulation in the sea-ice reduction regions of the Arctic Ocean

The biological pump is a central process in the ocean carbon cycle, and is a key factor controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). However, whether the Arctic biological pump is enhanced or reduced by the recent loss of sea ice is still unclear. We examined if the effect was dependent on ocean circulation. Melting of sea ice can both enhance and reduce the biological pump in the Arctic Ocean, depending on ocean circulation. The biological pump is reduced within the Beaufort Gyre in the Canada Basin because freshwater accumulation within the gyre limits nutrient supply from deep layers and shelves hence inhibits the growth of large-bodied phytoplankton. Conversely, the biological pump is enhanced outside the Beaufort Gyre in the western Arctic Ocean because of nutrient supply from shelves and greater light penetration, enhancing photosynthesis, caused by the sea ice loss. The biological pump could also be enhanced by sea ice loss in the Eurasian Basin, where uplifted isohaline surfaces associated with the Transpolar Drift supply nutrients upwards from deep layers. New data on nitrate uptake rates are consistent with the pattern of enhancement and reduction of the Arctic biological pump. Our estimates indicate that the enhanced biological pump can be as large as that in other oceans when the sea ice disappears. Contrary to a recent conclusion based on data from the Canada Basin alone, our study suggests that the biological CO₂ drawdown is important for the Arctic Ocean carbon sink under ice-free conditions.     

北极深海沉积物中细菌和古菌群落结构研究

在北极深海沉积物生态系统中,微生物的群落结构由有机质输入、能量的可用性及其他环境因素决定.然而,全球气候变暖及其导致的冰盖提前融化正在影响微生物的多样性.为描述北极深海沉积物中的微生物群落结构及其与环境因素的相关性,我们利用罗氏454对北极深海沉积物样品的16S rDNA扩增子进行了测序,对细菌和古菌群落的丰富度、成分、结构及其系统发育分类地位进行了描述.硫还原和化能有机营养类是细菌群落中的主要类群;而古细菌群落主要是由微生物的关系最为密切的氨氧化奇古菌门(96.66%)和产甲烷古生菌界(3.21%).这项研究描述了北极极点附近深海沉积物(> 3500米)中的微生物多样性,将为以后研究类似环境中微生物代谢过程和途径等功能分析奠定基础.     

In quest of an Arctic legal regime : Marine regionalism — a concept of international law evaluated

This article examines the regional approach as a solution to prevent marine pollution in the Arctic Ocean, which may result from land-based sources, offshore operations, and international shipping. It is argued that both the global and unilateral approach are inadequate to protect the polar sea appropriately — for the sake of its relatively untouched environment, the coastal areas of the Arctic states, and for the culture and life style of the indigenous inhabitants. Consequently, this essay assesses the status quo of international marine pollution control as established by conventions and other instruments and leads, after an outline of present regional treaties of the various marine regions, to an application of marine regionalism to the Arctic Ocean.     

太平洋东马里亚纳海盆多金属结核成因及品位控制因素

本文选取东马里亚纳海盆与CC区中国多金属结核合同区西区的多金属结核样品,采用ICP-OES、ICP-MS以及XRD等测试方法对结核表层进行了地球化学与矿物学分析,并探讨了东马里亚纳海盆结核成因以及其主要成矿元素含量的控制因素。结果表明,结核具备水成型结核的主、微量元素特征,并受到成岩作用的影响。结核上下表层各元素含量差异明显,上表层Fe、Co、P等多数主量元素及∑REYs含量均高于下表层,而Mn、Cu、Ni等元素含量在下表层明显增加。根据结核矿物学以及海洋环境特征,并结合前人数据统计分析认为,东马里亚纳海盆结核样品中Mn、Ni、Cu、Co、Fe、Ce的品位主要受控于Mn矿物组成、底层海水溶解氧和表层海水初级生产力,La、Y等稀土元素品位还受到洋中脊热液活动的制约。     

北极各海域海冰覆盖范围的变化特征

Sea ice in the Arctic has been reducing rapidly in the past half century due to global warming.This study analyzes the variations of sea ice extent in the entire Arctic Ocean and its sub regions.The results indicate that sea ice extent reduction during 1979–2013 is most significant in summer,following by that in autumn,winter and spring.In years with rich sea ice,sea ice extent anomaly with seasonal cycle removed changes with a period of 4–6 years.The year of 2003–2006 is the ice-rich period with diverse regional difference in this century.In years with poor sea ice,sea ice margin retreats further north in the Arctic.Sea ice in the Fram Strait changes in an opposite way to that in the entire Arctic.Sea ice coverage index in melting-freezing period is an critical indicator for sea ice changes,which shows an coincident change in the Arctic and sub regions.Since 2002,Region C2 in north of the Pacific sector contributes most to sea ice changes in the central Aarctic,followed by C1 and C3.Sea ice changes in different regions show three relationships.The correlation coefficient between sea ice coverage index of the Chukchi Sea and that of the East Siberian Sea is high,suggesting good consistency of ice variation.In the Atlantic sector,sea ice changes are coincided with each other between the Kara Sea and the Barents Sea as a result of warm inflow into the Kara Sea from the Barents Sea.Sea ice changes in the central Arctic are affected by surrounding seas.     

北极秋季海冰减少与亚洲大陆冬季温度异常

本文使用SVD等诊断分析方法探讨北极秋季海冰密集度与亚洲冬季温度异常之间的关系。结果表明,近30余年来,北极秋季海冰减少伴随着亚洲大陆冬季温度降低,但青藏高原地区、北冰洋和北太平洋沿岸除外。北极秋季海冰密集度减小激发欧亚大陆和北冰洋北部两个区域位势高度的改变,这种异常的变化模态从秋季持续到冬季。位势高度异常的负值中心位于巴伦支海和喀拉海。位势高度异常的正值中心位于蒙古区域。与重力位势高度异常伴随的风场异常为亚洲冬季温度降低提供自北向南的冷气流。随着北极海冰的不断减少,其与亚洲大陆冬季温度降低之间的关系将为气候长期预测提供参考。     

Reproduction of the large-scale state of water and sea ice in the arctic ocean in 1948–2002: Part I. Numerical model

Calculations were performed using a model of the combined circulation of the Atlantic Ocean (from 20° S), the Arctic Ocean, and the Bering Sea with a resolution of 0.25° by latitude and longitude for 1958–2006. The results are compared with observational data and results obtained by other models. Model estimates were obtained for the evolution of the Atlantic water inflow into the Arctic basin through the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea. Increased transports of Atlantic water inflow into the Arctic basin were found for the first half of the 1990s and 2004–2006. The relation between Atlantic water transports into the Arctic basin and variations in the North Atlantic oscillation is shown. A positive trend of Atlantic water inflow into the Arctic basin through the Fram Strait (0.061 Sv per year) was revealed. The evolution of the freshwater-layer thickness in the Beaufort Circulation (BC) is considered. There are three periods of its increased values combined with the increased anticyclonic vorticity of BC currents: the 1960s, the 1980s, and from 1999 until now. The model estimate for a statistical mean timescale of the cycle of freshwater concentration and sink from the BC is 16 years, which is close to currently existing estimates. The evolution of anticyclonic vorticity of currents leads the variations in the freshwater-layer thickness of the BC by 1.75 years. Since the mid-1970s, there have been long positive trends of both the freshwater-layer thickness and anticyclonic vorticity of currents in the BC. In the same time period, there has been a satellite-registered negative trend in the ice area in the Arctic, which was reproduced by the model.     

基于观测数据的2003?2014年北冰洋海平面时空特征

本文对比了3个不同机构提供的北冰洋月均高度计数据,发现英国极地观测与建模中心和丹麦科技大学空间中心两套数据比较一致且空间覆盖率高,适用于北冰洋海平面变化研究,而前者在数据分辨率、平滑性和与验潮站的符合程度方面均更优。对高度计和验潮站数据的分析表明,北冰洋海平面的气候态特征表现为加拿大海盆的高值和欧亚海盆的低值之间形成鲜明对比;海平面的变化以季节变化和北极涛动引起的低频变化为主,加拿大海盆的季节和年际振幅均较大,俄罗斯沿岸海平面季节变化显著。2003?2014年,北冰洋平均海平面呈上升趋势,其中加拿大海盆海平面上升最快,而俄罗斯沿岸海平面有微弱下降趋势。加拿大海盆和俄罗斯沿岸由于海冰变化显著,不同高度计产品以及高度计与验潮站数据之间差别较大,使用时需慎重。     

Comparative analysis of land,marine, and satellite observations of methane in the lower Atmosphere in the Russian Arctic under conditions of climate change

Land, marine, and satellite observations have been used to study changes in methane concentrations in the lower atmosphere during the warm months of the year (July through October) in Arctic regions having different potentials for methane production. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data for 2002–2013 are used to explore the interplay between local methane sources in the terrestrial region of the Eurasian Arctic and on the Arctic shelf over the warm period of the year. Linear trends in atmospheric methane concentrations over different Arctic regions are calculated, and a hypothesis of the relation of concentration variations to climatic parameters is tested. The combination of land, marine, and satellite observation is used to develop a conceptual model of the atmospheric methane field in the terrestrial part of the Russian Arctic and on the Arctic shelf. It is shown that the modern methane growth rate in the Arctic does not exceed the Northern Hemisphere mean. It is concluded that the methane emission in the Arctic has little effect on global climate compared to other factors.     

Adoption of the arctic search and rescue agreement: A shift of the arctic regime toward a hard law basis?

This paper examines the Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement—the first legally-binding instrument negotiated and adopted under the auspices of the Arctic Council—and analyzes its implications for the current Arctic regime. Led by the Arctic Council, the Arctic regime was established in a soft law format. However, the soft law nature and restricted mandates of the Arctic Council have limited its capacity to respond to new issues emerging from climate change, particularly those related to the exploitation of oil and gas reserves, commercial shipping through the region, effects on wildlife, and impacts on indigenous peoples' homelands and culture. The adoption of the Agreement represents a new approach for the Arctic States to respond to these new challenges. At the same time, it does not imply that a legally-binding instrument is necessarily preferable for every issue, and importantly, the new Arctic Agreement does not establish new institutional relationships, suggesting satisfaction among the Arctic States with the existing arrangements. Thus, although the Arctic regime is undoubtedly changing, this change should not be treated today as a shift from soft to hard law. What is more certain is that the Arctic Council will continue to function as a cooperative forum where the Arctic States can address these challenges, and its importance will only increase in coming years.     

北极秋季海冰密集度与中国初冬降雨之间的关系

本文通过对中国地区实测降水及北极海冰卫星数据的分析,研究了北极秋季海冰密集度与中国初冬降雨的关系。合成分析的研究结果表明2000年之前中国南方和北方冬季降水偏少,中部降水偏多,这之后中国南方和北方冬季降水增加,中部降水减少。SVD研究结果显示,北极海冰减少使得近三十年来中国南方和北方冬季降雨呈现逐渐增多,中部地区(从青藏高原向东北方向至日本)降雨逐步减少的趋势。随着北极海冰的进一步减少,如遇合适的气候条件,南方冻雨出现的概率会加大。北极秋季海冰异常的回复过程加之冬季海冰异常的延续信号在中国、蒙古及日本北部激发一个阻塞高压,以巴伦支海/卡拉海为中心激发一个异常低压。这使得来自北冰洋大西洋扇区的冷空气南下至欧洲大陆和亚洲北部,在阻塞高压的影响下,冷空气进一步南下,进入东亚地区。这不仅使得亚洲冬季温度降低,也为中国北部降水增加提供条件。     

基于PHC3.0数据集的北冰洋水团分析

基于PHC3.0极地科学中心水文气候数据集(简称PHC3.0数据集)的温度和盐度资料,使用聚类分析和Bayes判别分析的方法,对北纬70°以北海域的水团结构进行了分析,在北冰洋区域划分出4个水团:北冰洋表层水(ASW)、大西洋中层水(AIW)、太平洋水(PW)和北冰洋深层水(ADW)。北冰洋表层水(ASW)遍布于欧亚海盆和加拿大海盆,以低温低盐为特征。大西洋中层水(AIW)位于约200～900m深度,在北冰洋环极边界流的作用下,其影响可达到加拿大海盆。太平洋水(PW)受经白令海峡进入北冰洋的海水影响,相对高温低盐,夏季时影响显著。北冰洋深层水(ADW)在海盆中相当均匀,几乎没有季节变化,盐度约在34.95psu,温度在加拿大海盆约为-0.3℃,欧亚海盆约为-0.7℃。     

CMIP5气候模式模拟的北极海冰特征及其季节变化

This paper is focused on the seasonality change of Arctic sea ice extent(SIE) from 1979 to 2100 using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5).A new approach to compare the simulation metric of Arctic SIE between observation and 31 CMIP5 models was established.The approach is based on four factors including the climatological average,linear trend of SIE,span of melting season and annual range of SIE.It is more objective and can be popularized to other comparison of models.Six good models(GFDL-CM3,CESM1-BGC,MPI-ESM-LR,ACCESS-1.0,Had GEM2-CC,and Had GEM2-AO in turn) are found which meet the criterion closely based on above approach.Based on ensemble mean of the six models,we found that the Arctic sea ice will continue declining in each season and firstly drop below 1 million km~2(defined as the ice-free state) in September 2065 under RCP4.5 scenario and in September 2053 under RCP8.5 scenario.We also study the seasonal cycle of the Arctic SIE and find out the duration of Arctic summer(melting season) will increase by about 100 days under RCP4.5 scenario and about 200 days under RCP8.5 scenario relative to current circumstance by the end of the 21 st century.Asymmetry of the Arctic SIE seasonal cycle with later freezing in fall and early melting in spring,would be more apparent in the future when the Arctic climate approaches to "tipping point",or when the ice-free Arctic Ocean appears.Annual range of SIE(seasonal melting ice extent) will increase almost linearly in the near future 30–40 years before the Arctic appears ice-free ocean,indicating the more ice melting in summer,the more ice freezing in winter,which may cause more extreme weather events in both winter and summer in the future years.     

Second-order moment advection scheme applied to Arctic Ocean simulation

We apply the second-order moment (SOM) advection scheme of (Prather, M.J. 1986. Numerical advection by conservation of second-order moments. J. Geophys. Res. 91, 6671–6681.) to the simulation of the large-scale circulation of the Arctic Ocean with a coupled ocean–sea-ice model. Compared to three other advection schemes commonly employed in ocean simulations (centred differences, flux corrected transport, and multidimensional positive definite advection transport), the SOM method helps preserve the vertical structure of Arctic water masses. The depth, thickness and hydrographic properties of the Arctic Surface Water and the Arctic Atlantic Layer are better represented with SOM than with any of the other three advection algorithms. We also present a convenient method for calculating the implicit numerical diffusivity of upstream based schemes, such as the SOM method, and discuss three approaches for improving the monotonicity properties of the SOM algorithm.     

北极气旋的季节、年际变化及其与北极海冰、大气遥相关的关系

The seasonal and inter-annual variations of Arctic cyclone are investigated. An automatic cyclone tracking algorithm developed by University of Reading was applied on the basis of European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ERA-interim mean sea level pressure field with 6 h interval for 34 a period. The maximum number of the Arctic cyclones is counted in winter, and the minimum is in spring not in summer.About 50% of Arctic cyclones in summer generated from south of 70°N, moving into the Arctic. The number of Arctic cyclones has large inter-annual and seasonal variabilities, but no significant linear trend is detected for the period 1979–2012. The spatial distribution and linear trends of the Arctic cyclones track density show that the cyclone activity extent is the widest in summer with significant increasing trend in CRU(central Russia)subregion, and the largest track density is in winter with decreasing trend in the same subregion. The linear regressions between the cyclone track density and large-scale indices for the same period and pre-period sea ice area indices show that Arctic cyclone activities are closely linked to large-scale atmospheric circulations, such as Arctic Oscillation(AO), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and Pacific-North American Pattern(PNA). Moreover,the pre-period sea ice area is significantly associated with the cyclone activities in some regions.     

The Transarctic Acoustic Propagation Experiment and climatemonitoring in the Arctic

In April 1994, coherent acoustic transmissions were propagated across the entire Arctic basin for the first time. This experiment, known as the Transarctic Acoustic Propagation Experiment (TAP), was designed to determine the feasibility of using these signals to monitor changes in Arctic Ocean temperature and changes in sea ice thickness and concentration. CW and maximal length sequences (MLS) were transmitted from the source camp located north of the Svalbard Archipelago 1000 km to a vertical line array in the Lincoln Sea and 2600 km to a two-dimensional horizontal array and a vertical array in the Beaufort Sea. TAP demonstrated that the 19.6-Hz 195-dB (251-W) signals propagated with both sufficiently low loss and high phase stability to support the coherent pulse compression processing of the MLS and the phase detection of the CW signals. These yield time delay measurements an order of magnitude better than what is required to detect the estimated 80-ms/year changes in travel time caused by interannual and longer term changes in Arctic Ocean temperature. The TAP data provided propagation loss measurements to compare with the models to be used for correlating modal scattering losses with sea ice properties for ice monitoring. The travel times measured in TAP indicated a warming of the Atlantic layer in the Arctic of close to 0.4°C, which has been confirmed by direct measurement from icebreakers and submarines, demonstrating the utility of acoustic thermometry in the Arctic. The unique advantages of acoustic thermometry in the Arctic and the importance of climate monitoring in the Arctic are discussed. A four-year program, Arctic Climate Observations using Underwater Sound is underway to carry out the first installations of sources and receivers in the Arctic Ocean     

Transports of Nordic Seas water masses and excess SF6 through Fram Strait to the Arctic Ocean

To determine the exchanges between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait is one of the most important aspects, and one of the major challenges, in describing the circulation in the Arctic Mediterranean Sea. Especially the northward transport of Arctic Intermediate Water (AIW) from the Nordic Seas into the Arctic Ocean is little known. In the two-ship study of the circulation in the Nordic Seas, Arctic Ocean - 2002, the Swedish icebreaker Oden operated in the ice-covered areas in and north of Fram Strait and in the western margins of Greenland and Iceland seas, while RV Knorr of Woods Hole worked in the ice free part of the Nordic Seas. Here two hydrographic sections obtained by Oden, augmented by tracer and velocity measurements with Lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (LADCP), are examined. The first section, reaching from the Svalbard shelf across the Yermak Plateau, covers the region north of Svalbard where inflow to the Arctic Ocean takes place. The second, western, section spans the outflow area extending from west of the Yermak Plateau onto the Greenland shelf. Geostrophic and LADCP derived velocities are both used to estimate the exchanges of water masses between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean. The geostrophic computations indicate a total flow of 3.6 Sv entering the Arctic on the eastern section. The southward flow on the western section is found to be 5.1 Sv. The total inflow to the Arctic Ocean obtained using the LADCP derived velocities is much larger, 13.6 Sv, and the southward transport on the western section is 13.7 Sv, equal to the northward transport north of Svalbard. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) originating from a tracer release experiment in the Greenland Sea in 1996 has become a marker for the circulation of AIW. From the geostrophic velocities we obtain 0.5 Sv and from the LADCP derived velocities 2.8 Sv of AIW flowing into the Arctic. The annual transport of SF₆ into the Arctic Ocean derived from geostrophy is 5 kg/year, which is of the same magnitude as the observed total annual transport into the North Atlantic, while the LADCP measurements (19 kg/year) imply that it is substantially larger. Little SF₆ was found on the western section, confirming the dominance of the Arctic Ocean water masses and indicating that the major recirculation in Fram Strait takes place farther to the south.     

对地球系统模式FIO-ESM同化实验中北极海冰模拟的评估

本文评估了地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model)基于集合调整Kalman滤波同化实验对1992-2013年北极海冰的模拟能力。结果显示:尽管同化资料只包括了全球海表温度和全球海面高度异常两类数据,而并没有对海冰进行同化,但实验结果能很好地模拟出与观测相符的北极海冰基本态和长期变化趋势,卫星观测和FIO-ESM同化实验所得的北极海冰覆盖范围在1992-2013年间的线性变化趋势分别为-7.06×105和-6.44×105 km2/(10a),同化所得的逐月海冰覆盖范围异常和卫星观测之间的相关系数为0.78。与FIO-ESM参加CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)实验结果相比,该同化结果所模拟的北极海冰覆盖范围的长期变化趋势和海冰密集度的空间变化趋势均与卫星观测更加吻合,这说明该同化可为利用FIO-ESM开展北极短期气候预测提供较好的预测初始场。