Initiation of CMEs: A review

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a striking manifestation of solar activity seen in the solar corona, which bring out coronal plasma as well as magnetic flux into the interplanetary space and may cause strong interplanetary disturbances and geomagnetic storms. Understanding the initiation of CMEs and forecasting them are an important topic in both solar physics and geophysics. In this paper, we review recent progresses in research on the initiation of CMEs. Several initiation mechanisms and models are discussed. No single model/simulation is able to explain all the observations available to date, even for a single event.     

冕洞与太阳风高速流关系的统计研究:到达时间、持续时间和峰值强度

冕洞是太阳风高速流的源区.当冕洞出现在中低纬区域时,太阳风高速流会扫过地球并引发地球空间环境扰动,如地磁暴和高能电子暴等.在太阳活动周下降年和低年,这种类型的扰动占据主导地位.因此,冕洞高速流的到达时间、峰值时间、峰值强度和持续时间等,是空间天气预报的重要内容.本文基于2010年5月到2016年12月的SDO/AIA太阳极紫外图像以及1AU处ACE和WIND卫星的太阳风观测数据,确定了160个冕洞-太阳风高速流事件,定量计算了他们的特征参数,包括冕洞与太阳风高速流的开始时间、峰值时间、峰值强度和结束时间,分析了各个特征参数的分布规律,对冕洞-高速流之间的关系进行了统计研究,并提出了一种新的预报方法,为基于冕洞成像观测的太阳风高速流的精准预报提供了依据.     

Understanding CMEs and their source regions

CMEs are an important aspect of coronal and interplanetary dynamics. They can eject large amounts of mass and magnetic fields into the heliosphere which can drive large geomagnetic storms and interplanetary shocks, a key source of solar energetic particles. However, our knowledge of the origins and early development of CMEs at the Sun is limited. CMEs are most frequently associated with erupting prominences and long-enduring X-ray arcades, but sometimes with weak or no observed surface activity. I review some of the well-determined coronal properties of CMEs and what we know about their source regions, including recent studies using Yohkoh, SOHO and radio data. One exciting, new type of observation is of halo-like CMEs which suggest the launch of a geoeffective disturbance toward Earth. Besides their utility for forecasting the arrival at Earth of magnetic clouds and geomagnetic storms, halo CMEs are important for understanding the development and internal structure of CMEs since we can view their source regions near Sun center and can measure their in-situ characteristics along their central axes.     

Long-range forecasts of River Po discharges based on predictable solar activity and a fuzzy neural network model / Prévisions à long terme des débits du Fleuve Pô basées sur l’activité solaire prévisible et sur un modèle de réseau de neurones flou

Abstract

Abstract Is it possible to make seasonal and interannual forecasts of hydrological variables if one cannot predict next week’s rainfall? Contrary to common view, some scientists support the hypothesis that variations in mean global temperature and precipitation are controlled more by external forcing (solar variability and volcanic eruptions) than by increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Temperature and precipitation are connected with special phases of the 11-year sunspot cycle, which coincide with significant accumulation of energetic solar eruptions. Because of the possibility of identifying years with many solar eruptions, the attractive prospect emerges of the long-term hydrological forecasting based on cycles of solar activity. Starting from this assumption, an expert system was built based on a fuzzy neural network model for seasonal and interannual forecasting of the Po River discharge. It was found that indices of solar activity and of global circulation are sufficient to yield useful forecasts of hydrological variables.     

Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales

This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by outlooks over longer time horizons. This system is based on three complementary approaches combined to produce the outlooks: (i) national-scale modelling of streamflow and groundwater levels based on dynamic seasonal rainfall forecasts, (ii) catchment-scale modelling where streamflow and groundwater level models are driven by historical meteorological forcings (i.e. the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP, approach), and (iii) a catchment-scale statistical method based on persistence and historical analogues. This paper provides the background to the Hydrological Outlook, describes the various component methods in detail and then considers the impact and usefulness of the product. As an example of a multi-method, operational seasonal hydrological forecasting system, it is hoped that this overview provides useful information and context for other forecasting initiatives around the world.     

日冕绿区与地磁扰动間的某些問題

一、引言地磁場扰动的原因,至今仍是地球物理学者与天体物理学者所共同关切的問題.有許多理由說明太阳是使地磁产生扰动的主要根源.一般說来,在任何时期內,太阳活动愈強,地磁活动也愈強.然而,即使是在太阳活动最弱的年份,地磁場也可能产生不小的扰动.既然在太阳活动低年,作为太阳活动标誌的黑子数很少,那么,使地磁产生扰动的根源又是什么呢?对于这个問題,20多年以前提出了所謂M区来做答案.     

The use of various interplanetary scintillation indices within geomagnetic forecasts

Interplanetary scintillation (IPS), the twinkling of small angular diameter radio sources, is caused by the interaction of the signal with small-scale plasma irregularities in the solar wind. The technique may be used to sense remotely the near-Earth heliosphere and observations of a sufficiently large number of sources may be used to track large-scale disturbances as they propagate from close to the Sun to the Earth. Therefore, such observations have potential for use within geomagnetic forecasts. We use daily data from the Mullard Radio Astronomy Observatory, made available through the World Data Centre, to test the success of geomagnetic forecasts based on IPS observations. The approach discussed here was based on the reduction of the information in a map to a single number or series of numbers. The advantages of an index of this nature are that it may be produced routinely and that it could ideally forecast both the occurrence and intensity of geomagnetic activity. We start from an index that has already been described in the literature, INDEX35. On the basis of visual examination of the data in a full skymap format modifications were made to the way in which the index was calculated. It was hoped that these would lead to an improvement in its forecasting ability. Here we assess the forecasting potential of the index using the value of the correlation coefficient between daily Ap and the IPS index, with IPS leading by 1 day. We also compare the forecast based on the IPS index with forecasts of Ap currently released by the Space Environment Services Center (SESC). Although we find that the maximum improvement achieved is small, and does not represent a significant advance in forecasting ability, the IPS forecasts at this phase of the solar cycle are of a similar quality to those made by SESC.     

Development of a real-time forecasting model for turbidity current arrival time to improve reservoir desilting operation

ABSTRACT

Among various strategies for sediment reduction, venting turbidity currents through dam outlets can be an efficient way to reduce suspended sediment deposition. The accuracy of turbidity current arrival time forecasts is crucial for the operation of reservoir desiltation. A turbidity current arrival time (TCAT) model is proposed. A multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA), a support vector machine (SVM) and a two-stage forecasting technique are integrated to obtain more effective long lead-time forecasts of inflow discharge and inflow sediment concentration. The multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) is applied for determining the optimal inputs of the forecasting model, support vector machine (SVM). The two-stage forecasting technique is implemented by adding the forecasted values to candidate inputs for improving the long lead-time forecasting. Then, the turbidity current arrival time from the inflow boundary to the reservoir outlet is calculated. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the TCAT model, it is applied to Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. The results confirm that the TCAT model forecasts are in good agreement with the observed data. The proposed TCAT model can provide useful information for reservoir sedimentation management during desilting operations.     

Relationship between cyclic variations in the velocity and occurrence frequency of coronal mass ejections and cyclic changes in the structure of the large-scale solar magnetic field

This paper investigates the relationship between cyclic variations in the velocity of coronal mass ejections and cyclic changes in the structure of the large-scale solar magnetic field (LSSMF) in solar cycle 23, using the effective solar multipole index as a parameter of the characteristic dimensions of LSSMF structural elements. Cyclic variations in the velocity and frequency of coronal mass ejections are found to resemble cyclic changes in the effective solar multipole index. It is suggested that cyclic changes in the maximum velocity of coronal mass ejections are associated with different conditions for the formation of complexes of active regions connected by coronal arch structures, the energy of which is the main source of energy (velocity) for coronal mass ejections. The study leads to some suggestions about the possible site of initiation of coronal mass ejections.     

Verification of SPE probability forecasts at the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC)

In space weather forecasting, forecast verification is necessary so that the forecast quality can be assessed. This paper provides an example of how to choose and devise verification methods and techniques according to different space weather forecast products. Solar proton events (SPEs) are hazardous space weather events, and forecasting them is one of the major tasks of the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) at the National Space Science Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Through analyzing SPE occurrence characteristics, SPE forecast properties, and verification requirements at SEPC, verification methods for SPE probability forecasts are identified, and verification results obtained. Overall, SPE probability forecasts at SEPC exhibit good accuracy, reliability, and discrimination. Compared with climatology and persistence forecasts, the SPE forecasts are more accurate. However, the forecasts for SPE onset days are substantially underestimated and need to be considerably improved.     

Jet phenomena above null points of the coronal magnetic field

Short-lived plasma jets of various scales, from giant X-ray jets more than 300 Mm in extent to numerous small jets with sizes typical of macrospicules, are the phenomena observed in the solar corona in extreme ultraviolet and X-ray emission. Small jets are particularly prominent in polar coronal holes. They are close neighbors of tiny bright loops and coincide in time with their sudden brightening and increase in size. The geometric shape of the jets and their location suggest that they arise near singular null points of the coronal magnetic field. These points appear in coronal holes due to the emergence of small bipolar or unipolar magnetic structures within large-scale unipolar cells. Polar jets show a distinct vertical plasma motion in a coronal hole that introduces significant momentum and mass into the solar wind flow. Investigating the dynamics of polar jets can elucidate certain details in the problem of fast solar wind acceleration.     

Formation of coronal mass ejections at different phases of solar activity

This paper investigates the dependence of the observed coronal mass ejections and their parameters on evolutionary changes in the global solar magnetic field at different phases of solar cycles 23?C24. Four periods in the evolution of the solar cycle are identified, depending on the dominance ratio of the sectoral and zonal magnetic field structures. The parameters of coronal mass ejections observed during these periods are analyzed. The evolving structure in the global magnetic field is identified, and its influence on coronal mass ejections is examined.     

Effective typhoon characteristics and their effects on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting

This paper describes the identification of effective typhoon characteristics and the development of a new type of hourly reservoir inflow forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics. Firstly, a comparison of support vector machines (SVMs), which is a novel kind of neural networks (NNs), and back-propagation networks (BPNs) is made to select an appropriate NN-based model. The results show that SVM-based models are more appropriate than BPN-based models because of their higher accuracy and much higher efficiency. In addition, effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified from all the collected typhoon information. Then the effective typhoon characteristics (the position of the typhoon and the distance between the typhoon center and the reservoir) are added to the proposed SVM-based models. Next, a performance comparison of models with and without effective typhoon characteristics is conducted to clearly highlight the effects of effective typhoon characteristics on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting. To reach a just conclusion, the performance is evaluated by cross validation, and the improvement in performance due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics is tested by paired comparison t-tests at the 5% significance level. The results confirm that effective typhoon characteristics do improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially when the rainfall data are not available. For four- to six-hour ahead forecasts, the improvement due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics increases from 3% to 18% and from 10% to 113% for Categories I (rainfall data are available) and II (rainfall data are not available), respectively. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoons. The proposed SVM-based models with effective typhoon characteristics are expected to provide more accurate forecasts than BPN-based models. The proposed modeling technique is also expected to be useful to support reservoir operation systems and other disaster warning systems.     

High-speed streams from coronal holes and the accelerating mechanism of the solar wind

Abstract

In this paper, the general Mach number equation is derived, and the influence of typical energy forms in the solar wind is analysed in detail. It shows that the accelerating process of the solar wind is influenced critically by the form of heating in the corona, and that the transonic mechanism is mainly the result of the adjustment of the variation of the crosssection of flowing tubes and the heat source term.

The accelerating mechanism for both the high-speed stream from the coronal hole and the normal solar wind is similar. But, the temperature is low in the lower level of the coronal hole and more heat energy supply in the outside is required, hence the high speed of the solar wind; while the case with the ordinary coronal region is just the opposite, and the velocity of the solar wind is therefore lower. The accelerating process for various typical parameters is calculated, and it is found that the high-speed stream may reach 800 km/sec.     

Quantitative assessment of short‐term rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasts and MM5 forecasts

Short‐term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) can be achieved from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models or radar nowcasting, that is the extrapolation of the precipitation at a future time from consecutive radar scans. Hybrid forecasts obtained by merging rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasting and NWP models are potentially more skilful than either radar nowcasts or NWP rainfall forecasts alone. This paper provides an assessment of deterministic and probabilistic high‐resolution QPFs achieved by implementing the Short‐term Ensemble Prediction System developed by the UK Met Office. Both radar nowcasts and hybrid forecasts have been performed. The results show that the performance of both deterministic nowcasts and deterministic hybrid forecasts decreases with increasing rainfall intensity and spatial resolution. The results also show that the blending with the NWP forecasts improves the performance of the forecasting system. Probabilistic hybrid forecasts have been obtained through the modelling of a stochastic noise component to produce a number of equally likely ensemble members, and the comparative assessment of deterministic and probabilistic hybrid forecasts shows that the probabilistic forecasting system is characterised by a higher discrimination accuracy than the deterministic one. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Manifestation of the Identity of Brightness Temperatures of the Polar Coronal Hole and Low-Latitude Coronal Holes in the Centimeter Wave Range

This paper is devoted to an analysis of brightness temperatures of the polar and low-latitude coronal holes on the Sun in the cm-wave range during periods of minimum solar activity. Data from observations of the polar coronal hole received by the RATAN-600 radio telescope during the solar eclipse of March 29, 2006, and low-latitude observations of coronal holes and quiet Sun received earlier with the RATAN-600 and BPR radio telescopes in the period of minimum solar activity have been used in the paper. The obtained good agreement between the brightness temperatures of cm-wave emission of the polar coronal hole above the North Pole of the Sun and of the low-latitude coronal holes against the background of the quiet Sun reveals the identity of the temperature properties of large coronal holes, irrespective of the mode of their arrangement and location on the Sun during the periods of minimum solar activity.     

Statistical Studies of Coronal Mass Ejections and Coronal Holes

Statistical studies of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and coronal holes (CHs) are reviewed. The work summarizes the historical and current results of statistical studies of CMEs and CHs and their parameters that have been obtained by various authors who considered these phenomena as independent manifestations of solar activity, as well as their mutual effect on geomagnetic activity, based on both ground and space observations.     

太阳活动短期预报效果及预报评价的探讨

文对照太阳活动持续性预报技术（ＣＨ） , 统计了世界警报处的技术（ Ｗ） 、北京天文台七十年代技术（Ｂ７） 和九十年代技术（Ｂ９） 同时期的短期预报效果提出了评价预报技术效果的Ｑ 指数, 它综合反映了报准的正效果和误报的负效果利用Ｑ 指数, 对上述典型预报技术的效果进行了对比评价; 并据之提出了改进预报技术的具体科学途径特别指出, 短期预报技术思路应做重要转变： 太阳活动持续性预报技术应作为改进后技术的基本成分; 把现在直接预报太阳活动的水平, 转变为预报太阳活动水平的变化     

Performance of operational systems with respect to water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland

This paper is devoted to the validation of water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland. Daily forecasts produced by four setups of operational, three-dimensional Baltic Sea oceanographic models are analyzed using statistical means and are compared with water level observations at three Finnish stations located on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland. The overall conclusion is that the operational systems were skillful in forecasting water level variations during the study period from November 1, 2003, to January 31, 2005. The factors causing differences between the water level forecasts of different models are discussed as well. An important task of operational sea level forecasting services is to provide accurate and early information about extreme water levels, both positive and negative surges. During the study period, two major winter storms occurred which caused coastal flooding in the region. According to our analysis, the operational models forecast the rise of water levels during these events rather successfully. Nowadays, operational forecasts can provide early warnings of extreme water levels at least 1 day in advance, which may be regarded as a minimum requirement for an operational forecasting system. The paper concludes that the models generally performed very well, with over 93% of the hourly water level forecasts found to be within the range of ±15 cm of the observed water levels, and with the timing of the water level peaks accurately predicted. Further discussion and studies dealing with the assessment of the skills of both operational meteorological and oceanographic forecasts, especially in connection with rare surge events, will be necessary. Skill assessment of operational oceanographic models would be relatively easy if acceptable error limits or a quality system was developed for the Baltic Sea operational models.     

Forbush effects with a sudden and gradual onset

For a comprehensive study of the Forbush effects and their relation to solar and geomagnetic activity, a database of transient phenomena in cosmic rays and the interplanetary medium has been created, which is continuously updated with data on new events. Based on these data, we study the dependence of the Forbush effects on various internal and external parameters, as well as select different groups of events. In this paper, we consider recurrent (caused by high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes) and sporadic (associated with coronal mass ejections) events. We investigate groups of events with a sudden and gradual onset. We show that the resulting dependencies of the Forbush effects (on the parameters of interplanetary disturbances, geomagnetic activity indices, etc.) are substantially different for the above-mentioned groups. Most likely, these differences are caused by different sources of solar wind disturbances.