Behavior of the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect

Variations in the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect during the first hours after the arrival of the interplanetary shock wave have been studied with the use of data on variations in the cosmic ray density with a rigidity of 10 GV obtained by the global survey method by the world network of neutron monitors in 1957?2012. It is found that behavior of this parameter after the arrival of the shock wave demonstrates high variability. A small (~1/5 of total number), though distinct, group of Forbush effects, in which the density of the cosmic ray increases (not decreases) after the arrival of the shock wave, is defined. As a whole, the initial variation in cosmic ray density is correlated with the Forbush effect magnitude and the strength of the associated geomagnetic disturbance.     

Relationship between Forbush effect parameters and the heliolongitude of solar sources

All significant events in galactic cosmic rays for the last 55 years have been collected in a Forbush effect database created at the Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation (hereinafter, IZMIRAN) based on data from the global network of neutron monitors. The solar sources of ～800 of these events have been identified. These events were divided into five groups with respect to the heliolongitudes of the associated X-ray solar flares, and typical behavior of their characteristics such as cosmic ray density and anisotropy, was studied independently for each group. The Forbush effect characteristics, which are the most dependent on the source heliolongitude, have been identified.     

Spatial-Energy Characteristics of Cosmic Rays and Parameters of Magnetospheric Current Systems in March and June 2015

The data from terrestrial observations of cosmic rays at the global network of stations by the method of spectrographic global survey were used to analyze two Forbush decreases during the geomagnetic storms in March and June 2015. The spectra of cosmic ray variations, pitch angle anisotropy of cosmic rays at different phases of Forbush decrease development, and the changes in the planetary system of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities are presented. It is shown that, during the approximation of the spectra of variations by the power function of particle rigidity in the interval of 10–50 GV, the spectrum index is softer at the maximum modulation phase than during the phases of cosmic ray intensity decline and recovery. In the axisymmetric model of the bounded magnetosphere of the Earth, which takes into account the currents at the magnetopause and the ring current, the distance to the subsolar point and the radius of the ring current, as well as the contribution of the ring current to the changes in geomagnetic cutoff rigidity and to the Dst index during the studied events, are determined.     

Long-Term Changes in the Number and Magnitude of Forbush-Effects

The IZMIRAN database of Forbush effects and interplanetary disturbances has been used to study long-term changes in the number and magnitude of Forbush effects in the last six solar cycles (1957–2016) for cosmic rays of rigidity of 10 GV. Solar activity cycles have been shown to be well expressed in data of Forbush effects, especially in large magnitude events that almost disappear in minima. The changes in the distribution of Forbush effects and the decrease in their average values from solar activity maximum to minimum are explained by the predominance of cosmic-ray variations due to the action of coronal holes at low activity. It should be noted that the current cycle involves fewer and generally weaker Forbush effects than in the previous five cycles. For each month, an FD index combining the magnitude and number of Forbush effects and convenient for studying long-term variations has been proposed and calculated.     

Cosmic rays during great geomagnetic storms in cycle 23 of solar activity

Variations in the cosmic ray intensity (specifically, Forbush effects) and in the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity planetary system during powerful geomagnetic disturbances in cycle 23 were studied based on worldwide station network data by the global spectrographic survey method. The cosmic ray variation spectra during these periods and the spectral indices of these variations when the spectrum was approximated by the power function of the particle rigidity varying from 10 to 50 GV during different Forbush effect development phases are presented. It was indicated that the spectral indices of cosmic ray variations during spectrum approximation by the power function of the particle rigidity are larger during the maximal modulation phase than during the cosmic ray intensity decline and recovery phases. The fact that the amplitude of the second harmonic of the cosmic ray pitch angle anisotropy did not increase on November 20, 2003, confirms that the Earth fell into a Sun-independent spheromark magnetic cloud. The increased amplitudes of the second harmonic of the cosmic ray pitch angle anisotropy during other Forbush effects in July 2000, March–April 2001, October 2003, and November 2004 indicate that the Earth was in the coronal mass ejection region, in which the interplanetary magnetic field structure was loop-like during these periods.     

Schumann resonance amplitude during the Forbush effect

The time variations in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity at Apatity stations have been compared to the amplitude of the first Schumann resonance (as an indicator of the global thunderstorm activity power) for 12 cases of Forbush decreases in GCRs. A performed analysis indicated that the amplitude of the first Schumann resonance decreased only once during a Forbush decrease in GCRs as compared to the quiet conditions (during the strongest event in January 2005). In the remaining cases, a statistically significant effect was not observed.     

Main Properties of Forbush Effects Related to High-Speed Streams from Coronal Holes

The IZMIRAN database of Forbush effects and interplanetary disturbances was used to study features of the action of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes on cosmic rays. Three hundred and fifty Forbush effects created by coronal holes without other actions were distinguished. The mean values and distributions have been found for different characteristics of events from this group and compared with all Forbush effects and Forbush effects caused by coronal ejections. Despite the great differences in high-speed streams from coronal holes, this group turned out to be more compact and uniform as compared to events related to coronal ejections. Regression dependences and correlation relations between different parameters of events for the studied groups have been obtained. It has been shown that Forbush effects caused by coronal ejections depend considerably more strongly on the characteristics of interplanetary disturbances as compared to Forbush effects related to coronal holes. This suggests a significant difference between the modulation mechanisms of Forbush effects of different types and corroborates earlier conclusions based on indirect data.     

根据VLF的相位变化确定D层宇宙线强度变化的可能性

银河宇宙线是电离层D层的重要电离源之一,它的急剧变化会使D层电子密度发生改变,从而影响VLF波的夜间传播。本文根据在西安接收英国GBR台的VLF波（16kc/s）的相位变化,讨论了在有宇宙线暴（Forbush下降）和强磁暴时,中纬D层电子浓度的变化和相应的VLF波的相位漂移;并根据VLF的相位变化,估计了相应的宇宙线强度变化。由于D层中的宇宙线强度变化通常难于观测,通过VLF波的相位漂移来估计它,这是很有意义的。所以,VLF波的传播效应可能成为间接探测宇宙线强度变化的有用工具。     

Features of the Behavior of Time Parameters of Forbush Decreases Associated with Different Types of Solar and Interplanetary Sources

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Forbush decreases occurring from 1997 to 2017 (1055 events in total) have been analyzed with the use of a database of Forbush effects and interplanetary disturbances...     

Spectrographic analysis of events in cosmic rays in October–November 2003

Based on the multiplied neutron registration with the Magadan neutron monitor, the parameters of the spectrum of variations in the cosmic ray hardness and variation in geomagnetic cutoff rigidity for Forbush decreases and intensity increases, related to registration at a level of solar cosmic ray observation, have been determined using the spectrographic method. Results of an analysis indicate that the spectral index (represented in the power form) increases for Forbush decreases and decreases for increases in CR intensity. In the analyzed cases, geomagnetic cutoff rigidity decreases for intensity increases and Forbush decreases.     

Similarities and Differences between Forbush Decreases Associated with Streams from Coronal Holes,Filament Ejections,and Ejections from Active Regions

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The Forbush decreases for the period from 1997 to 2020 were studied based on data from the database on Forbush effects and interplanetary disturbances created and...     

Forbush effects with a sudden and gradual onset

For a comprehensive study of the Forbush effects and their relation to solar and geomagnetic activity, a database of transient phenomena in cosmic rays and the interplanetary medium has been created, which is continuously updated with data on new events. Based on these data, we study the dependence of the Forbush effects on various internal and external parameters, as well as select different groups of events. In this paper, we consider recurrent (caused by high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes) and sporadic (associated with coronal mass ejections) events. We investigate groups of events with a sudden and gradual onset. We show that the resulting dependencies of the Forbush effects (on the parameters of interplanetary disturbances, geomagnetic activity indices, etc.) are substantially different for the above-mentioned groups. Most likely, these differences are caused by different sources of solar wind disturbances.     

Global Survey Method for the World Network of Neutron Monitors

One of the variants of the global survey method developed and used for many years at the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences is described. Data from the world network of neutron monitors for every hour from July 1957 to the present has been processed by this method. A consistent continuous series of hourly characteristics of variation of the density and vector anisotropy of cosmic rays with a rigidity of 10 GV is obtained. A database of Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic rays caused by large-scale disturbances of the interplanetary medium for more than half a century has been created based on this series. The capabilities of the database make it possible to perform a correlation analysis of various parameters of the space environment (characteristics of the Sun, solar wind, and interplanetary magnetic field) with the parameters of cosmic rays and to study their interrelationships in the solar–terrestrial space. The features of reception coefficients for different stations are considered, which allows the transition from variations according to ground measurements to variations of primary cosmic rays. The advantages and disadvantages of this variant of the global survey method and the opportunities for its development and improvement are assessed. The developed method makes it possible to minimize the problems of the network of neutron monitors and to make significant use of its advantages.     

Index of the Long-Term Influence of Sporadic Solar Activity on Cosmic Ray Modulation

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) not only produce Forbush effects but contribute to long-term modulations of cosmic rays. That makes coronal ejections the main sporadic manifestations of the solar activity, which should be considered in modulation models. In this paper, a new version of the CME-index is proposed based on a comparison of the data from satellite coronographs with Forbush effects and long-term variations of cosmic rays.     

Effect of cosmic rays on atmospheric pressure under mountain conditions

The phenomenological model of condensation interaction between galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and water vapor, which makes it possible to estimate atmospheric pressure variations at different altitudes with changing GCR flux, has been developed. It has been indicated that pressure should increase at all altitudes in the considered interval (0–5 km above sea level) during Forbush decreases. Therefore, the correlation between pressure and GCR flux under mountain conditions can be negative as near sea level. However, the performed calculation of the cross-correlation function of the series of daily data, obtained at Jungfraujoch station (3475 m) in 1968–1992, indicated that this correlation is positive and statistically significant with a maximum leading the GCR variation onset by two days. As usual, pressure increased during Forbush decreases due to the condensation mechanism. The obtained results can be explained by the manifestation of the optical mechanism related to solar flares, which operates together with the condensation mechanism and causes a decrease in pressure at high altitudes. It has been indicated that the effectiveness of this mechanism substantially changes with the phase of the quasibiennial cycle.     

台风暴雨过程中位势散度波作用密度分析和预报应用研究

在位涡的基础上,考虑散度效应,把水平风矢量旋转90°后的旋度在广义位温梯度方向上的投影定义为位势散度,并把其二阶扰动量定义为位势散度波作用密度,该波作用密度代表扰动热量的扰动输送,与位势稳定度的发展演变有关.登陆台风Morakot(2009)的诊断分析表明,在台风登陆台湾岛,进入台湾海峡和登陆大陆三个阶段,波作用密度高值区与大陆和台湾降水区相重叠,扰动热量的扰动输送显著;在前两个阶段,大陆和台湾降水区波作用密度逐渐增大,扰动热量的扰动输送逐步增强;在台风登陆福建霞浦市后,大陆地区波作用密度减小,扰动热量的扰动输送减弱.在影响波作用密度局地变化的诸多物理因素中,扰动非地转风位涡项是主要强迫项.统计分析表明,波作用密度与观测降水有一定的相关性,据此发展了位势散度波作用密度降水预报方程,其本质是数值模式预报资料的动力延伸释用,预报应用表明,利用24 h模式预报场计算的波作用密度降水能够较好地再现观测降水的落区,对台风Morakot引发的暴雨有一定的预报技巧.     

A method for inversion of layered shear wavespeed azimuthal anisotropy from Rayleigh wave dispersion using the Neighborhood Algorithm

Seismic anisotropy provides important constraints on deformation patterns of Earth's material. Rayleigh wave dispersion data with azimuthal anisotropy can be used to invert for depth-dependent shear wavespeed azimuthal anisotropy, therefore reflecting depth-varying deformation patterns in the crust and upper mantle. In this study, we propose a two-step method that uses the Neighborhood Algorithm(NA) for the point-wise inversion of depth-dependent shear wavespeeds and azimuthal anisotropy from Rayleigh wave azimuthally anisotropic dispersion data. The first step employs the NA to estimate depthdependent VSV(or the elastic parameter L) as well as their uncertainties from the isotropic part Rayleigh wave dispersion data. In the second step, we first adopt a difference scheme to compute approximate Rayleigh-wave phase velocity sensitivity kernels to azimuthally anisotropic parameters with respect to the velocity model obtained in the first step. Then we perform the NA to estimate the azimuthally anisotropic parameters Gc/L and Gs/L at depths separately from the corresponding cosine and sine terms of the azimuthally anisotropic dispersion data. Finally, we compute the depth-dependent magnitude and fast polarization azimuth of shear wavespeed azimuthal anisotropy. The use of the global search NA and Bayesian analysis allows for more reliable estimates of depth-dependent shear wavespeeds and azimuthal anisotropy as well as their uncertainties.We illustrate the inversion method using the azimuthally anisotropic dispersion data in SE Tibet, where we find apparent changes of fast axes of shear wavespeed azimuthal anisotropy between the crust and uppermost mantle.     

Quantifying Damage, Saturation and Anisotropy in Cracked Rocks by Inverting Elastic Wave Velocities

Crack damage results in a decrease of elastic wave velocities and in the development of anisotropy. Using non-interactive crack effective medium theory as a fundamental tool, we calculate dry and wet elastic properties of cracked rocks in terms of a crack density tensor, average crack aspect ratio and mean crack fabric orientation from the solid grains and fluid elastic properties. Using this same tool, we show that both the anisotropy and shear-wave splitting of elastic waves can be derived. Two simple crack distributions are considered for which the predicted anisotropy depends strongly on the saturation, reaching up to 60% in the dry case. Comparison with experimental data on two granites, a basalt and a marble, shows that the range of validity of the non-interactive effective medium theory model extends to a total crack density of approximately 0.5, considering symmetries up to orthorhombic. In the isotropic case, Kachanov's (1994) non-interactive effective medium model was used in order to invert elastic wave velocities and infer both crack density and aspect ratio evolutions. Inversions are stable and give coherent results in terms of crack density and aperture evolution. Crack density variations can be interpreted in terms of crack growth and/or changes of the crack surface contact areas as cracks are being closed or opened respectively. More importantly, the recovered evolution of aspect ratio shows an exponentially decreasing aspect ratio (and therefore aperture) with pressure, which has broader geophysical implications, in particular on fluid flow. The recovered evolution of aspect ratio is also consistent with current mechanical theories of crack closure. In the anisotropic cases—both transverse isotropic and orthorhombic symmetries were considered—anisotropy and saturation patterns were well reproduced by the modelling, and mean crack fabric orientations we recovered are consistent with in situ geophysical imaging. Our results point out that: (1) It is possible to predict damage, anisotropy and saturation in terms of a crack density tensor and mean crack aspect ratio and orientation; (2) using well constrained wave velocity data, it is possible to extrapolate the contemporaneous evolution of crack density, anisotropy and saturation using wave velocity inversion as a tool; 3) using such an inversion tool opens the door in linking elastic properties, variations to permeability.     

Specific features of the rigidity spectrum of Forbush effects

We analyze variations in the rigidity spectrum of primary cosmic rays during Forbush effects recorded in cycles 20–24 of solar activity on the basis of data from the global network of neutron monitor stations processed by global survey. We investigate variations in the rigidity spectrum index of Forbush effects as a function of the solar activity level, phases of the effect, polarity the total magnetic field of the Sun, type and parameters of the source of cosmic ray modulation, etc. Comprehensive analysis of our results revealed regularities in the dynamics of the energy spectrum of galactic cosmic rays that reflect the dynamic processes occurring in the interplanetary space.