The Kangding earthquake swarm of November, 2014

There was an earthquake swarm of two major events of MS6.3 and MS5.8 on the Xianshuihe fault in November, 2014. The two major earthquakes are both strike-slip events with aftershock zone along NW direction.We have analyzed the characteristics of this earthquake sequence. The b value and the h value show the significant variations in different periods before and after the MS5.8earthquake. Based on the data of historical earthquakes, we also illustrated the moderate-strong seismic activity on the Xianshuihe fault. The Kangding earthquake swarm manifests the seismic activity on Xianshuihe fault may be in the late seismic active period. The occurrence of the Kangding earthquake may be an adjustment of the strong earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault. The Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the historical earthquakes were also given in this article. The results indicate that the earthquake swarm was encouraged by the historical earthquakes since1893, especially by the MS7.5 Kangding earthquake in1955. The Coulomb failure stress changes also shows the subsequent MS5.8 earthquake was triggered by the MS6.3earthquake.     

Analysis of observations backing up the existence of VLF and ionospheric TEC anomalies before the Mw6.1 earthquake in Greece,January 26, 2014

The present work integrates ground-based ionosphere measurements using very-low-frequency radio transmissions with satellite measurements of the total electron content to draw common conclusions about the possible impact that the Mw6.1 earthquake that took place in Greece on January 26, 2014, had on the ionosphere.Very-low-frequency radio signals reveal the existence of an ∼4-day anomaly in the wavelet spectra of the signals received inside the earthquake preparation zone and a significant increase in the normalized variance of the signals prior to the earthquake (approximately 1 day before).Through total electron content analysis, it was possible to identify a clear anomaly from 15:00 until 20:00 UT on the day before the earthquake that appears again on the day of the earthquake between 07:00 UT and 08:00 UT. The anomalous values reach TEC1Sigma ∼4.36 and 3.11, respectively. Their spatial and temporal distributions give grounds to assume a possible link with the earthquake preparation. The geomagnetic, solar and weather conditions during the considered period are presented and taken into account.This work is an initial and original step towards a multi-parameter approach to the problem of the possible earthquake-related effects on the ionosphere joining observations made from both ground stations and satellites. A well-founded knowledge of these phenomena is clearly necessary before dealing with their application to earthquake prediction purposes.     

新西兰2010年M7.1地震与2011年M6.3地震活动和灾害分析

本文对新西兰.2010年9月4日M7.1地震(国际标准时间)与2011年2月22日(国际标准时间)M6.3地震活动和灾害情况进行了分析,用同震位移方法计算了两次地震的地震烈度,结果表明尽管两次地震震级相差较大,但由于M6.3地震震源深度较浅,两次地震在地表的烈度相同.本文用主余震序列方法计算了两次地震的断层滑动参数,结...     

2012年4月11日苏门答腊Ms8.6地震前电离层TEC异常变化

基于IGS提供的GPS TEC资料和中国地壳运动观测网络提供的GPS数据解算的单站VTEC数据,采用统计分析处理方法,对2012年4月11日苏门答腊北部Ms8.6地震震前电离层TEC资料进行处理分析,结果表明:在震前5-6天以及地震当天,震中上空附近出现显著的电离层TEC异常扰动,异常形态有正有负,表现为先异常减小后异常增大最后变小,异常增大主要发生在下午至黄昏时段,即12:00-16:00 LT,持续时间约4小时.排除太阳活动和地磁扰动的影响后,4月5日出现的电离层TEC异常增大及呈现出共轭结构以及地震当天出现的异常扰动,可能与此次地震有关.     

23 October 2011 Van, Eastern Anatolia, earthquake (M W 7.1) and seismotectonics of Lake Van area

The 23 October 2011 Van earthquake took place in the NE part of Lake Van area, surprisingly on a fault (the Van fault) that is not present in the current active fault map of Turkey. However, occurrence of such a large magnitude earthquake in the area is not surprising regarding the historical seismicity of the region. The comparison of the damage patterns suggests that the earthquake is much likely a recurrence of the 1715 Van earthquake. The finite fault modelling of the earthquake using teleseismic broadband body waveforms has shown that the earthquake rupture was unilateral toward SW, was mostly reverse faulting, confined to below the depth of 5 km, did not propagate offshore, and was dominated by a failure of a single asperity with a peak slip of about 5.5 m. The total seismic moment calculated for the model is 4.6?×?10¹⁹ Nm (M _W ?≈?7.1). The finite fault model coincides with the field observations indicating blind faulting and the vertical displacements over the free surface estimated from it correlate well with the maximum reported uplift along the coast of Lake Van above the hanging wall. The possible offshore continuations of the Van fault and some other faults lying its south are also discussed by assessing a previous offshore seismic reflection study and the earthquake epicentres and focal mechanisms.     

玉树地震前电离层VLF信号信噪比变化

2010年4月13日23点49分38秒(世界时),青海省玉树县发生了Ms7.1地震.根据法国DEMETER卫星电场探测仪(ICE)实验数据,研究震区上空半径500 km范围内电离层10-20 kHz甚低频(VLF)电场频谱信噪比发现,玉树地震前3个不同频率的地面VLF发射站信号对应的信噪比均出现相同的变化特征,即震前DEMETER卫星1个重访周期内的平均信噪比明显减弱,而2009年相同时段和区域的平均信噪比并未出现相似变化趋势.分析认为,玉树地震孕震期信噪比衰减现象很可能是由地震-电离层耦合所致.     

On the sensitivity of total electron content (TEC) to upper atmospheric/ionospheric parameters

The total electron content (TEC) is a key ionospheric parameter for various space weather applications. Over the last decade an extensive database of TEC measurements has become available from both space- and ground-based observations, and these measurements have established the general morphology of the global TEC distributions. In particular, the TOPEX TEC measurements have shown strong longitudinal variations of TEC in addition to the observed day-to-day variabilities. To better understand the observed TEC variations and to better guide its modeling, we have studied the sensitivity of quiet-time TEC to the following key atmospheric and ionospheric parameters: neutral density, neutral wind, plasma temperatures, plasmaspheric flux, and the O⁺–O collision frequency. These parameters are often only roughly known and can cause large uncertainties in model results. For this study, we have developed a numerical mid-latitude ionospheric model, which solves the momentum and continuity equations for the O⁺ density and a simplified set of equations for the H⁺ density. To obtain TEC, the calculated ion densities have been integrated from the bottom altitude (100 km) to the altitude of the TOPEX satellite (1336 km). Our study shows that during the day the neutral wind and the neutral composition have the most important effect on TEC. In particular, the zonal component of the neutral wind can have a large effect on TEC in the southern hemisphere where the magnetic declination angle is large. During the night, most of the above-mentioned parameters can play a significant role in the TEC morphology, except for the plasma temperature, which has only a small effect on TEC. Finally, the TEC varies roughly linearly with respect to all of the parameters except for the neutral wind.     

Investigation of ionospheric TEC changes related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake based on statistic analysis and signal detection

Ionospheric TEC (total electron content) time series are derived from GPS measurements at 13 stations around the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Defining anomaly bounds for a sliding window by quartile and 2-standard deviation of TEC values, this paper analyzed the characteristics of ionospheric changes before and after the destructive event. The Neyman-Pearson signal detection method is employed to compute the probabilities of TEC abnormalities. Result shows that one week before the Wenchuan earthquake, ionospheric TEC over the epicenter and its vicinities displays obvious abnormal disturbances, most of which are positive anomalies. The largest TEC abnormal changes appeared on May 9, three days prior to the seismic event. Signal detection shows that the largest possibility of TEC abnormity on May 9 is 50.74%, indicating that ionospheric abnormities three days before the main shock are likely related to the preparation process of the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.     

Modeling of the ground motion for the Petropavlovsk earthquake of November 24, 1971 (M = 7.6)

Based on the example of the strong earthquake of November 24, 1971, with the earthquake source near the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii, the new modeling technique of the strong ground motions within the broadband is tested. In this technique, the seismologically-substantiated models of the radiation source and elastic medium are used. The source is represented by an array of point radiation sources-dislocations with the random seismic moments (amplitudes) and with the random time functions. The new method of calculation of the Green functions is developed to describe the propagation of waves and residual displacements of a layered medium. The method is used for the simulation of the horizontal ground motion, recorded by a S5S-ISO instrument for the strong earthquake that took place on November 24, 1971 with the source near the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii (with a depth of 105 km). The position of the hypocenter, the sizes and the position of the fault, and “fault mechanism” were considered to be known a priori. By a trial and error method of the duration of the source process and only two spectral parameters, it was possible to simulate successfully the fundamental characteristics of the ground vibrations: the amplitude of acceleration, the velocity and displacement of the ground, their Fourier spectrum, the duration of the vibrations, and the response spectrum. The surprisingly high level of high-frequency radiation, probably connected with the intraplate position of the source, is a specific feature of the source.     

The Egion June 15, 1995 (6.2M L ) earthquake,western Greece

On June 15, 1995 at 00:15 GMT a devastating earthquake (6.2M _L ) occurred in the western end of the Gulf of Corinth. This was followed 15 min later by the largest aftershock (5.4M _L ). The main event was located by the University of Patras Seismological Network (PATNET) at the northern side of the Gulf of Corinth graben. The second event (5.4M _L ) was located also by PATNET near the city of Egion, on a fault parallel to the Eliki major fault that defines the south bound of the Gulf of Corinth graben. A seismogenic volume that spans the villages of Akrata (SE) and Rodini (NW) and extends to Eratini (NE) was defined by the aftershock sequence, which includes 858 aftershocks of magnitude greater than 2M _L that occurred the first seventeen days. The distribution of hypocentres in cross section does not immediately suggest a planar distribution but rather defines a volume about 15 km (depth) by 35 km (NW-SE) and by 20 km (NE-SW).     

新疆阿图什7级地震和伽师震群介质参数讨论

利用区域地震体波振幅传播特征,研究测定地震波源初始振幅辐射状态,企图得到中强震孕育的前兆信息。按这一思路,在北纬38. 0°~ 42. 0°,东经74. 5°~ 79. 0°(南天山西段的乌恰至柯坪)计算了1992~ 1999年的介质参数地震波初始振幅偏离系数。讨论了1996年3月阿图什7. 1级地震和1997年伽师震群前后该介质参数在时空演化过程中的可能前兆。结果表明,强震发生在介质性质变化的过渡区,也是应力环境变化梯度大的地点;从时间上讲,强震往往发生在介质参数由低值回升到高值时或以后。文中还依据参数的物理意义,对强震和震群发生的构造应力环境进行了讨论。     

Anomalous modification of the ionospheric total electron content prior to the 26 September 2005 Peru earthquake

This paper investigates the features of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies in the total electron content (TEC) data obtained on the basis of regular GPS observations from the International GNSS Service (IGS) network. For the analysis of the ionospheric effects of the 26 September 2005 Peru earthquake, Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) of TEC were used. The possible influence of the earthquake preparation processes on the main low-latitude ionosphere peculiarity—the equatorial anomaly—is discussed. Analysis of the TEC maps has shown that modification of the equatorial anomaly occurred a few days before the earthquake. In previous days, during the evening and night hours (local time—LT), a specific transformation of the TEC distribution had taken place. This modification took the shape of a double-crest structure with a trough near the epicenter, though usually in this time the restored normal latitudinal distribution with a maximum near the magnetic equator is observed. Additional measurements (CHAMP satellite) have also confirmed the presence of this structure. To compare the vertical TEC measurements obtained with GPS satellite signals (GPS TEC), the International Reference Ionosphere, IRI-2001, was used for calculating the IRI TEC.     

The lessons from the Simushir earthquakes of November 15, 2006 (M w 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w 8.1)

According to S.A. Fedotov’s long-term earthquake forecast, the Middle Kuril Is. has long (since 1965) been a likely location for the next M ≥ 7.7 earthquake, i.e., a seismic gap. The present study integrates seismological, geological, and geophysical data to assess the earthquake potential of the gap prior to November 15, 2006. Seismological data were used to carry out a comparative analysis of 3D seismic energy density for three zones of the Kuril region. The density for the Middle Kuril Is. turned out to be twice as small as that for the North Kuril Is. and nearly six times as small as that for the South Kurils. Various parameters of the seismic process for the Kuril region have been estimated in quantitative terms. It is shown that the rate of completely reported (M ≥ 6) earthquakes occurring down to 70 km depth in the Middle Kuril Is. is approximately three times as small as that for the entire Kuril arc. Increased heat flow was recorded there (up to 100 mW/m²). The top of the high conductivity layer is shallower (at a depth of 100 km). The trends of major faults and other seismotectonic features have been taken into account. Based on these data (prior to November 15, 2006), the previous conclusion about the low seismic activity of the Middle Kuril Is. was corroborated. Two great earthquakes occurred in the region on November 15, 2006 (M _w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M _w = 8.1) with subsequent tsunami waves. The erroneous inference as to low seismic activity was related to the fact that the seismic cycle in the Middle Kuril Is. may be as long as 150–200 years. We come to the conclusion that an analysis of the level of seismic activity for the region should start with the construction of standardized recurrence curves and determining the magnitude of the maximum possible earthquake.     

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the M W = 7.1, 1992, earthquake in the Atrato region, Colombia

We study the October 18, M _W = 7.1, 1992 Atrato earthquake, and its foreshocks and aftershocks, which occurred in the Atrato valley, northwestern Colombia. The main shock was preceded by several foreshocksof which the M _W = 6.6, October 17 earthquacke was the largest. Inparticular, we examine foreshocks and aftershocks performing joint-hypocenter relocations using high quality Pn and Sn wave readingsfrom permanent regional networks. We observed a few hours prior to the main shock a sudden increase of foreshocks. Maybe this could be used as a predictor since foreshocks have been known for other major events in the region. Our locations align for 90 km with a trend of 5^° ±4^° in agreement with the Harvard CMT solution showing the faultplane trending 9^° to be the plane of rupture. In relation to theepicenter of the main shock, maximum intensities were located to thesouth, consistent with a rupture that traveled from north to south witha larger energy release in the south as suggested by an empirical Green'sfunction study (Li and Toksöz, 1993; Ammon et al., 1994). The boundarybetween the Panama and North Andes blocks has been placed close to thePanama-Colombia border as either a sharp boundary or a diffuse zone. TheAtrato earthquake, however, shows that the plate boundary between thePanama and North Andes microblocks is a diffuse deformation zone. Thiszone has a width of at least 2^° stretching from 78^°W to 76^°W. Quantification of earthquake moment release (during the past30 years) in this zone shows a similar amount of moment release in thewestern and eastern parts of this zone.     

2010年玉树MS7.1地震前的中长期加速矩释放(AMR)问题

2010年4月14日青海玉树MS7.1地震前的加速矩释放(AMR)现象的研究,对理解这次地震的孕震过程、对于时间相依的地震危险性分析(或中长期地震预测)具有重要意义.鉴于以往AMR研究中的争论,本文不刻意选取AMR分析的时空尺度,而是在已知发震时刻和震中位置情况下,对T-R-Mc三维空间中矩释放指数m值的分布进行分析,结果表明玉树MS7.1地震前在时间尺度T=10~20y和空间尺度R=50~120 km范围内,存在较稳定的AMR,但AMR的时、空尺度与以往研究中得到的AMR定标率不吻合.在多时间尺度下,无法在空间上惟一地识别玉树MS7.1地震震中附近的AMR"热点".但如借鉴"迁移图像"的做法考察AMR"热点"的演化,则可见震前似存在AMR逐渐向震中附近"迁移"的现象.     

玉树7.1级地震断层地表破裂带应急科考

玉树7.1级地震断层同震地表破裂带由3条主破裂左阶组成,总体走向300°～320°,隆宝镇上见有约2km长的雁列式张裂缝,北侧主破裂长约16km,中间主破裂长约9km,南侧主破裂长约7km,总长约34km。各主破裂均由一系列支破裂雁列组成,支破裂表现为一系列挤压鼓包与张裂缝相间排列或雁列式张裂缝,最南端禅古寺表现为垂直位错。破裂为左旋走滑性质,最大走滑位移量位于北侧主破裂上,约1.8m。     

Time variations in teleseismic reisduals prior to the magnitude 5.1 Bear Valley earthquake of February 24, 1972

Summary Teleseismic arrivals for large earthquakes occurring in the Circum-Pacific seismic source regions have been analysed forP-velocity variations prior to the February 24, 1972, Bear Valley earthquake at several stations in the vicinity of Bear Valley, California. The teleseismic arrivals have been analysed by the method of two-station residuals and corrected for observed azimuthal variations. The data covers the time period of July, 1971, through April, 1972, and suggests that during part of January, 1972, aP-velocity anomaly occurred beneath station BVL 2 km from the epicenter of the magnitude 5.1 Bear Valley event. A maximum vertical travel time delay of 0.15 seconds is observed. No other anomalous behavior associated with this event is suggested by the data for the other stations ranging from 7 to 19 km from the event's epicenter. These results support an anomalous zone of limited size with a maximum horizontal extent of less than 5 km perpendicular and about 10 km parallel to the San Andreas fault relative to the epicenter and confined within a 5 to 10 km portion of the uppermost crust. Also aP-velocity delay for waves travelling essentially along the intermediate stress axis would imply in this case that theP-velocity anomaly is caused by a bulk modulus mechanism such as that proposed by the dilatancy-fluid flow theory.     

Anomalous variations in the foF2 critical frequency above Japan prior to the earthquake of March 9, 2011

Based on data from the Japanese Kokubunji and Wakkanai stations of vertical sounding of the ionosphere, the variations in the foF2 critical frequency prior to the strong earthquakes of March 9 and 11, 2011 (M 7.2 and 9.0, respectively), are analyzed. It is found that significant positive disturbances of foF2 had been recorded approximately one day before the first earthquake. Notably, at the Irkutsk reference station, which is located about 3300 km from the earthquake epicenters, there were no significant disturbances of foF2. This suggests that the effects of increased foF2, observed at the Kokubunji and Wakkanai stations, were probably caused by the earthquake preparation processes. The seismo-ionospheric manifestations of the stronger earthquake on March 11, 2011, even if they took place, were hidden by the geomagnetic storm’s effects.     

玉树地震前电离层VLF信号信噪比变化

2010年4月13日23点49分38秒(世界时), 青海省玉树县发生了M_S7.1地震. 根据法国DEMETER卫星电场探测仪(ICE)实验数据, 研究震区上空半径500 km范围内电离层10—20 kHz甚低频(VLF)电场频谱信噪比发现, 玉树地震前3个不同频率的地面VLF发射站信号对应的信噪比均出现相同的变化特征, 即震前DEMETER卫星1个重访周期内的平均信噪比明显减弱, 而2009年相同时段和区域的平均信噪比并未出现相似变化趋势. 分析认为, 玉树地震孕震期信噪比衰减现象很可能是由地震-电离层耦合所致.