Spectral analysis and earthquake scaling of the Petatlan earthquake (M s =7.6) aftershocks,recorded at stations along the pacific coast and between the coast and Mexico City

Spectral parameters have been estimated for 214 Petatlan aftershocks recorded at stations between Petatlan and Mexico City and between Petatlan and Acapulco. The spectral parameters were used to obtain empirical relations for the estimation of seismic moment from coda length and fromM _L . Stress drops, using Brune's model, were calculated for these aftershocks. Six events with large stress drop are located within a previously suggested asperity, and seven more suggest a boundary zone at the intersection of the Petatlan and Zihuatanejo aftershock rupture volumes. Stress drops increase with increasing seismic moment up to 10²⁰ dyne-cm but appear to be constant at greater moment values. The peak horizontal velocity times distance of aftershocks recorded near the coast and between the coast and Mexico City (30 to 270 km away), scales linearly with seismic moment, and predicts well the peak horizontal values of large (M _s 7.0) coastal thrust events recorded on rock sites at Mexico City. Peak horizontal velocity is a straightforward measurement, thus this relation allows us to evaluate expected ground motion between the Pacific coast and Mexico City from the seismic moment of subduction related earthquakes along the coast.     

1996年5月3日包头西Ms=6.4地震的矩张量解

利用ＣＤＳＮ及ＧＤＳＮ数字化Ｐ波波形资料,用遗传算法反演１９９６年包头西ＭＳ＝６．４地震的地震矩张量解。结果表明该地震矩张量解以双力偶成分为主,是断层面接近南北走向的左旋走滑错动,断裂面走向与大震后５天内余震的分布带走向基本一致。压应力轴与张应力转接近水平,前者近北西西走向,后者近北北东走向。     

Intra-arc opening and closure of a marginal sea: The case of the Guerrero Terrane (SW Mexico)

Abstract The pre-Oligocene structure of southwest Mexico, south of the trans-Mexico volcanic axis, is investigated from Taxco (Guerrero state, abbreviation: Gro) to the Pacific coast. Three volcano-sedimentary units are recognized; from east to west the calc-alkaline Teloloapan, tholeiitic Arcelia and calc-alkaline Zihuatanejo suites. Structural and stratigraphic data show that the Teloloapan volcanic arc, active during ?Late Jurassic and early Cretaceous, was built upon continental basement. The Teloloapan lavas are overlain by the Albian–Cenomanian Morelos platform carbonates and followed by the Upper Cretaceous Mexcala flysch. In contrast, the Arcelia pillow lavas are associated with sandstones and cherts of Albian-?Cenomanian age. The Zihuatanejo arc was also installed upon continental basement and its magmatic activity was in part coeval with Arcelia magmatism. Unlike the almost undeformed Zihuatanejo volcanic rocks, all the other volcanic units are involved in east-vergent thrusting and recumbent folding associated with ductile tectonics, as well as the Late Cretaceous Mexcala flysch overlying the Morelos platform carbonates. Contrasting with previous views, the present results do not support a major mid-Cretaceous thrusting event in the study area. The new geodynamic interpretation proposed here considers that the Arcelia rocks were formed in a marginal basin situated east of the Zihuatanejo arc. Closure of this basin in Paleocene times is responsible for the east vergent thrust tectonics in SW Mexico.     

宜宾北4.7级地震活动背景、特征及其与鲁甸5.6级强震呼应成因分析

通过对宜宾北4．7级地震震中及附近地区地震地质、地震活动背景、区域地震活动性、水位资料的分析，表明宜宾北4．7级地震震前经历了区域地震活跃至平静、再发震的过程，其部分地震学参数存在异常，川12井水位也出现较大异常，并对宜宾北所处的华蓥山断裂带上的中强震与川滇交界附近地区南北地震带上的强震存在较高的对应关系成因进行了分析，认为华蓥山断裂带上中强地震活动对川滇交界地区南北地震带上强震的发生存在中短期预报意义。     

The 1997 Umbria-Marche (Italy) earthquake sequence: analysis of the data recorded by the local and temporary networks

We present some preliminary results obtained from thejoined analysis of the data collected by the permanentand the temporary networks operating in the area ofthe earthquake sequence that followed (andanticipated) the 26 September, Central Italy, mainshocks. In particular, these earthquake data haveallowed us to determine a well constrainedwave-velocity model (both P and S) with stationcorrections which demonstrated to produce robusthypocentral locations. These velocity modelswith station corrections have been used forre-locating the whole September 1997–July 1998subset of data of the permanent network, and theprevious background seismicity, starting from May1996. The focal mechanisms of the largest events werealso obtained from an analysis of the first-motionpolarities.Our results indicate that 1) the seismic activityaligns on a SE-NW trend for a total length of about50 km of extension; 2) the focal depth of theseevents is restricted to the range 0–9 km; 3) mostevents can be related to sub-parallel SW dipping faultplanes; 4) focal mechanisms of the largest shocks(M_L > 4) show a coherent behaviour, withnormal fault solution on SSE-NNW striking, SW dippingplanes; 5) the space-time evolution of the activitydisplays a discontinuous mode of energy release, withdifferent episodes of activation and an apparentclustering of aftershocks at the edges of the areaswhich presumably ruptured in the main shocks.     

The Study of Medium- and Short-term Prediction for Artux Earthquake (M_S=6.9) and Usunan Earthquake (M_S=5.8)

In this paper, the process of medium- and short-term prediction (submitted in special cards) of the Artux earthquake (MS=6.9) and the Usurian earthquake (MS=5.8) in Xinjiang area, is introduced. The imminent seismic risk regions are judged based on long- and medium-term seismic risk regions and annual seismic risk regions determined by national seismologic analysis, combined with large seismic situation analysis. We trace and analyze the seismic situation in large areas, and judge principal risk regions or belts of seismic activity in a year, by integrating the large area's seismicity with geodetic deformation evolutional characteristics. As much as possible using information, we study synthetically observational information for long-medium- and short-term (time domain) and large-medium -small dimensions (space domain), and approach the forecast region of forthcoming earthquakes from the large to small magnitude. A better effect has been obtained. Some questions about earthquake prediction are discussed.     

Aftershocks and the rupture zone of the M S = 8.2, November 15, 2006 Middle Kuril Is. Earthquake and a long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from April 2008 to March 2013

Results are reported from the ongoing 2007–2008 work using the method of long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based on the patterns of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. This method was successful in predicting the M _S = 8.2 Simushir I. (Middle Kuril Is.) earthquake occurring in the Simushir I. area on November 15, 2006. An M _S = 8.1 earthquake occurred in the same area on January 13, 2007. We consider the evolution of the seismic process and determine the common rupture region of the two earthquakes. The sequence of M ≥ 6.0 aftershocks and forecasts for these are given. We provide a long-term forecast for the earthquake-generating zone of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the next five years, April 2008 to March 2013. Explanations are given for the method of calculation and prediction. The probable locations of future M ≥ 7.7 earthquakes are specified. For all segments of the earthquake-generating zone we predict the expected phases of the seismic cycle, the rate of low-magnitude seismicity (A₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate-sized earthquakes to be expected, with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, their maximum possible magnitudes, and the probabilities of occurrence of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. The results of these forecasts are used to enhance seismic safety.     

2015年4月25日尼泊尔地震波场传播及烈度初步模拟分析

2015年4月25日尼泊尔发生Mw7.9地震.本文采用三维曲线坐标网格有限差分方法,依据USGS给出的震源运动学反演结果和震源区域地形数据,模拟了尼泊尔地震波场传播过程,得到震源区域烈度分布模拟结果,与实际观测的地表峰值速度(PGV)大体吻合.结果表明:地震烈度的空间分布整体上受控于震源的单边破裂特征,高烈度区域主要分布在破裂传播方向上,即震源东半部.震源南侧到东南侧近场,由于受到震源和地形的双重影响,形成最大烈度分布区域,最大烈度约为IX.南侧平原受低速沉积层影响形成高烈度区域.震源西侧及盆地内烈度相对较低.     

新西兰2010年M7.1地震与2011年M6.3地震活动和灾害分析

本文对新西兰.2010年9月4日M7.1地震(国际标准时间)与2011年2月22日(国际标准时间)M6.3地震活动和灾害情况进行了分析,用同震位移方法计算了两次地震的地震烈度,结果表明尽管两次地震震级相差较大,但由于M6.3地震震源深度较浅,两次地震在地表的烈度相同.本文用主余震序列方法计算了两次地震的断层滑动参数,结...     

Seismotectonics and seismic quietness of the Oranie region (Western Algeria): The Mascara earthquake of August 18th 1994, Mw = 5.7, Ms = 6.0

The plate dynamics in the central western Mediterranean region is characterised by a collision between the Eurasian and African plates. In response to this dynamics, many systems of faults and folds having a NE-SW and E-W trending have been generated along the Tellian Atlas of Algeria. The Oranie region (north western Algeria) has experienced some significant earthquakes in the last centuries, the most important one is that of Oran city on February 9^th 1790, I_o = XI which destroyed the town completely and caused the loss of many lives. Since 1790 no other event was so disastrous except that of August 18^th 1994, M_w = 5.7, which struck Mascara province (Algeria) at 01 h 13 mn GMT. Since the beginning of this century the region has been dominated by a seismic quietness. Thus, no event with magnitude larger than 5.5 have occurred in this area. In relation with this recent event, a seismotectonic framework summarising the tectonic, seismicity and focal solution results is presented. The Maximum Observed Intensities Map (MOI) made for Algeria (Bezzeghoud et al., 1996) is also used to show that the Mascara region is located in an VIII-X intensity zone, which explain partially the casualties caused by the 18/08/1994 (M_w = 5.7) earthquake. This earthquake is not anomalous compared to historical records but is unusual compared to recorded seismicity of this century. The seismotectonic map made in this study and also the review of the focal solutions given by the EMSC, Harvard, and other authors shows that our event is probably associated with a source belonging to a system of faults located in the vicinity of the village of Hacine where the maximum damage was observed.     

1931年南海西沙群岛北6 3/4级地震震中位置与震级的讨论

根据地震地质构造环境、历史地震烈度记录等资料，对1931年9月21日南海西沙群岛北海中63/4级地震的震中位置和震级进行了讨论。该次地震广州、三水、中山等地的烈度达5°，5°等震线长轴大体呈NW向。由大致勾画的等烈度线图推测，其震中位置应从现定微观震中向东推移110km(20°N，114.1°E)。参考我国63/4～71/2级地震的震中位置与V度等震线最远距离的统计结果，认为上海徐家汇观象台将该震定为7.1级是较为合理的。     

川滇地区某些地震区未来震情研判

运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,对川滇地区某些地震区未来震情进行了重新研判和分析,并给出了这些地震区未来中强震或强震的四要素预测结果.结果表明:若1973年炉霍大震不是Ms7.9级,则鲜水河地震区未来有Ms 7.9～8.1级的地震发生;其它地震区,包括小江、西昌、云龙、宜宾-长宁以及自贡-遂宁地震区,未来都将有破坏性地震发生.     

New constraints on the seismic history of the Castrovillari fault in the Pollino gap (Calabria, southern Italy)

The Pollino Range area represents the mostprominent gap in seismicity within thesouthern Apennines. Geomorphic andtrenching investigations along theCastrovillari fault indicate that thisnormal fault is a major seismogenic faultwithin the southern part of this gap. Atleast four surface-faulting earthquakeshave occurred on this fault since latePleistocene age. Radiocarbon dating coupledwith historical consideration set thetime of the most recent earthquake as mostlikely to be between 530 A.D. and 900 A.D.,with the possible widest interval of530–1100 A.D. No evidence for this eventhas been found in the historical records,although its age interval falls within thetime spanned by the seismic catalogues.Slip per event ranges between 0.5 and1.6 m, with a minimum rupture length of13 km. These values suggest a M 6.5–7.0 forthe paleoearthquakes. The minimum long-termvertical slip rate obtained from displacedgeomorphic features is of 0.2–0.5 mm/yr. Avertical slip-rate of about 1 mm/yr is alsoinferred from trenching data. Theinter-event interval obtained from trenchdata ranges between 940 and 7760 years(with the young part of the intervalpossibly more representative; roughly940–3000 years). The time elapsed since themost recent earthquake ranges between aminimum of 900–1100 and a maximum of 1470years. The seismic behavior of this faultappears to be consistent with that of othermajor seismogenic faults of thecentral-southern Apennines. The Pollinocase highlights the fact thatgeological investigations represent apotentially useful technique tocharacterize the seismic hazard of `silent' areas for which adequate historical andseismological data record are notavailable.     

菏泽5.9级地震前后S值的时空变化

运用地震活动度(S)的计算模型对1983年菏泽5.9级地震前后,周围地区进行了时空扫描,发现了在主震前2-3年的时空分布上,S值都有一个异常升高的过程。     

Evaluation of seismic displacement demands from the September 19, 2017 Puebla‐Morelos (Mw = 7.1) earthquake in Mexico City

This short communication presents the assessment of seismic inelastic and elastic displacement demands computed from earthquake ground motions (EQGMs) recorded in Mexico City during the intermediate‐depth intraslab Puebla‐Morelos earthquake on 19 September 2017 (Mw = 7.1). Evaluation is conducted by means of peak elastic and inelastic displacement demand spectra, inelastic displacement ratio, C_R, spectra, and generalized interstory drift spectra computed for selected recording stations located in different soil sites of Mexico City, including those located in areas of reported collapsed buildings. Results of this study confirm previous observations made from interplate (subduction) EQGMs that peak inelastic displacement demands are greater than corresponding elastic counterparts for short‐to‐medium period structures, while the opposite is true for medium‐to‐long period structures. Possible basin site effects were identified from generalized interstory drift spectra. It is also shown that an equation introduced in the literature to obtain estimates of C_R developed from interplate EQGMs provides also a good estimate for mean C_R computed from the intermediate‐depth intraslab EQGMs.     

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the M W = 7.1, 1992, earthquake in the Atrato region, Colombia

We study the October 18, M _W = 7.1, 1992 Atrato earthquake, and its foreshocks and aftershocks, which occurred in the Atrato valley, northwestern Colombia. The main shock was preceded by several foreshocksof which the M _W = 6.6, October 17 earthquacke was the largest. Inparticular, we examine foreshocks and aftershocks performing joint-hypocenter relocations using high quality Pn and Sn wave readingsfrom permanent regional networks. We observed a few hours prior to the main shock a sudden increase of foreshocks. Maybe this could be used as a predictor since foreshocks have been known for other major events in the region. Our locations align for 90 km with a trend of 5^° ±4^° in agreement with the Harvard CMT solution showing the faultplane trending 9^° to be the plane of rupture. In relation to theepicenter of the main shock, maximum intensities were located to thesouth, consistent with a rupture that traveled from north to south witha larger energy release in the south as suggested by an empirical Green'sfunction study (Li and Toksöz, 1993; Ammon et al., 1994). The boundarybetween the Panama and North Andes blocks has been placed close to thePanama-Colombia border as either a sharp boundary or a diffuse zone. TheAtrato earthquake, however, shows that the plate boundary between thePanama and North Andes microblocks is a diffuse deformation zone. Thiszone has a width of at least 2^° stretching from 78^°W to 76^°W. Quantification of earthquake moment release (during the past30 years) in this zone shows a similar amount of moment release in thewestern and eastern parts of this zone.     

The earthquake of 6 September 2002 and the seismic history of Palermo (Northern Sicily,Italy): Implications for the seismic hazard assessment of the city

On September 6, 2002, a M_L = 5.6 earthquake, occurring some tens of kilometres offshore from the Northern Sicilian coast (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea), slightly damaged the city of Palermo and surroundings (degree 6 in the European Macroseismic Scale 1998). The macroseismic investigation of the shock and a detailed study of effects of the main earthquakes which affected Palermo in the past have been performed in order to evaluate the seismic response of the city. Moreover, the comparison of the recent event, which is instrumentally constrained, with historical earthquakes allows us to infer new insights on the seismogenic sources of the area, that seem located offshore in the Tyrrhenian sea.In the last 500 years, Palermo has never been completely destroyed but has suffered effects estimated between intensities 6 and 8 EMS-98 many times (1693, 1726, 1751, 1823, 1940, 1968, 2002). The damage scenarios of the analysed events have shown that damage distribution is strongly conditioned by soil response in the different parts of the city and by a high building vulnerability, mainly in the historical centre and in the south-eastern zone of the modern city. As a matter of fact, Palermo has always suffered greater effects than those reported for other nearby localities. The hazard assessment obtained using observed site intensities has shown that the probability of occurrence for intensity 8 (the strongest intensity observed in Palermo) exceeds 99% for 550 years, while the estimated mean return period is 152 ± 40 years. These results, in connection with building vulnerability due to the urban expansion before the introduction of seismic code, suggest that the city is exposed to a relatively high seismic risk.This paper has not been submitted elsewhere in identical or similar form, nor will it be during the first 3 months after its submission to Journal of Seismology.     

Spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of M9.0 megathrust earthquake sequences of wood‐frame houses in Victoria,British Columbia,Canada

Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management.     

Focal mechanism of small quakes before and after the Kaoiki,Hawaii, earthquake (M S =6.6) of November 16, 1983

The Kaoiki, Hawaii, earthquake with magnitude 6. 6 of November 16, 1983 was a strike-slip faulting event on a fault with large dip angle. The results for mechanisms of smaller events before and after the Kaoiki mainshock show that there were two kinds of mechanisms: (1) strike-slip on the fault with large dip angle; (2) slip on the crustal discontinuity plane with smaller dip angle, and systematic and alternative changes in the mechanisms were observed.     

2010年墨西哥Baja MW7.2地震与中国玉树MW6.9地震强地震动特征的对比研究

2010年4月4日墨西哥Baja地区发生MW7.2地震,2人遇难; 同年4月14日中国青海省南部玉树地区发生MW6.9地震,截至2010年4月25日,已造成2 220人遇难．有报道指出,玉树地震矩震级小于Baja地震,人员伤亡却远大于后者,主要原因在于玉树地区抗震设防标准低、建筑物抗震性能差．地震造成破坏程度的大小并非仅仅取决于矩震级的大小,而同时与其释放的地震波辐射能及发震后造成的强地面运动的大小有关. 玉树地震释放的地震波辐射能约相当于Baja地震的10倍,目前玉树地震尚无实测的强震记录．针对玉树地震和Baja地震建立动态复合震源模型,分别模拟基岩上及浅层速度结构（V30,地下30 m平均剪切波速）下近断层区域的强地面运动．结果表明,基岩上及V30下玉树地震近断层区域强地面运动整体约相当于Baja地震的2倍．因此,玉树地震造成发震区域内建筑物损毁程度及人员伤亡情况均严重于Baja地震,重要原因之一在于其地震波辐射能大,且强地面运动较强．本文中所应用的动态复合震源模型,在地震矩守恒和地震波辐射能守恒的条件约束下,可以作为地震发生后补充强地面运动数据的有效手段之一。