求解地面沉降预测模型参数的逆问题

地下流体的抽取所引起的地面沉降的预测依赖于所选理论模型中参数的量化。本文所建立的逆问题模型中涉及到压缩承压含水系统中5个控制地面沉降的参数：压缩弱透水层的垂向水力传导系数K＇、塑性贮水率S＇skv和弹性贮水率S＇ske、含水层的贮水率S＇S和弱透水层的前期最大固结压力p＇max0。逆问题模型由Newton-Raphson调整算法和Helm有限差分一维固结模型构成（COMPAC）,其中固结模型可用其他模型替代。文中用一个理想压缩承压含水系统对该逆问题模型进行检验,检验结果显示该模型能求解出理想压缩承压含水系统的K＇、S＇skv、S＇ske、S＇S和p＇max0的近似值,其中p＇max0和S＇skv是控制计算沉降量的两个最主要的参数。每个监测点计算压缩量的平均相对误差为7.8%,该误差仅由调整算法产生。该逆问题模型应用于上海F9地面沉降监测点上部承压含水系统参数的求解和变形量的预测,所求解出的K＇、S＇skv、S＇ske、S＇S和p＇max0的近似值分别为8.58×10-4 m/a、3.50×10-4 1/m、6.39×10-6 1/m、1.19×10-5 1/m和-2.50m、每个观测点计算压缩量的平均相对误差为13.7%。误差的来源除了调整算法外,还包括地下水位、压缩变形的观测误差以及模型概化所产生的误差。     

应用沉降和水位数据计算上海地区弱透水层的参数

弱透水层参数的确定是准三维或三维地下水流数学模型应用时的难点,而应力-应变图解法是一种估计弱透水层参数的有效方法。在介绍该法的基本原理之后,结合上海沉降和水位观测资料,求出了上海地区弱透水层的弹性贮水率、非弹性贮水率和垂向渗透系数,为上海地面沉降的数值模拟提供了较好的初始参数值。对于弱透水层,抽水试验的方法是不可取的,如果又没有条件取土样作室内试验时,若有沉降资料和相应的水位资料,则应力-应变图解法是确定近似参数值的一种比较好的方法。     

饱和砂性土流变模型的试验研究

正确合理的土体本构模型确定是地面沉降模拟的关键之一。上海和江苏地区多年来野外分层标的实际观测资料表明该区含水层系统砂层变形具有流变特征,表现出变形滞后于含水层水位变化的现象。本文基于粘弹性理论,选取了常州含水层系统原状砂性土样进行单轴压缩试验,分析了砂性土流变荷载曲线,并选择现有的相关本构模型进行识别,从而确定能更好反映研究区土体变形规律的流变模型。结果表明,研究区砂性土可采用Burgers模型进行描述,反演获得的4个流变参数随荷载的增加表现出一定的规律性。     

Regional land subsidence simulation in Su-Xi-Chang area and Shanghai City, China

Su-Xi-Chang area and Shanghai City, located in the south of Yangtze Delta, China, has subsided due to groundwater overpumping. Because of the regional scale of the groundwater exploitation, cone of depression and land subsidence at present, Su-Xi-Chang area and Shanghai City are treated as a single area for land subsidence study to avoid the uncertainty of boundary condition due to the regionalism. The characteristics of aquifer system compaction are complex because of the difference in the types, compositions and structures of the soils that the hydrostratigraphic units are composed of, and in the histories of groundwater level change the hydrostratigraphic units have experienced. Considering the fact that different hydrostratigraphic units have different kinds of deformation and that an identical unit may also present different deformation characteristics, such as elasticity, elasto-plasticity, and visco-elasto-plasticity, at different sites of the cone of depression or in different periods, corresponding constitutive laws have been adopted. This avoids the shortcomings of the previous research that the same constitutive law was adopted in all the hydrostratigraphic units during the entire time period. A coupled flow and subsidence model, which includes a three-dimensional flow model with variable coefficients and a one-dimensional (vertical) subsidence model, is built according to the complicated hydrological condition in the region. The simulation model is calibrated using observed data, which include compression of individual strata from groups of extensometers and groundwater levels from observation wells from 1995 to 2002. The model reproduced that the primary subsidence layer in Shanghai shifts from the shallow aquitard to the fourth confined aquifer because of the groundwater yield variations and the change of exploitation aquifers. However the third aquitard was the primary subsidence layer in Su-Xi-Chang area and the compaction deformation of the sandy aquifers was remarkable. The simulation results could provide some reasonable advice about groundwater exploitation in the future.     

Three-dimensional numerical modeling of land subsidence in Shanghai,China

Shanghai, in China, has experienced two periods of rapid land subsidence mainly caused by groundwater exploitation related to economic and population growth. The first period occurred during 1956–1965 and was characterized by an average land subsidence rate of 83 mm/yr, and the second period occurred during 1990–1998 with an average subsidence rate of 16 mm/yr. Owing to the establishment of monitoring networks for groundwater levels and land subsidence, a valuable dataset has been collected since the 1960s and used to develop regional land subsidence models applied to manage groundwater resources and mitigate land subsidence. The previous geomechanical modeling approaches to simulate land subsidence were based on one-dimensional (1D) vertical stress and deformation. In this study, a numerical model of land subsidence is developed to simulate explicitly coupled three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow and 3D aquifer-system displacements in downtown Shanghai from 30 December 1979 to 30 December 1995. The model is calibrated using piezometric, geodetic-leveling, and borehole extensometer measurements made during the 16-year simulation period. The 3D model satisfactorily reproduces the measured piezometric and deformation observations. For the first time, the capability exists to provide some preliminary estimations on the horizontal displacement field associated with the well-known land subsidence in Shanghai and for which no measurements are available. The simulated horizontal displacements peak at 11 mm, i.e. less than 10 % of the simulated maximum land subsidence, and seems too small to seriously damage infrastructure such as the subways (metro lines) in the center area of Shanghai.     

Investigation into subsidence hazards due to groundwater pumping from Aquifer II in Changzhou,China

This paper presents an investigation into increased deformation of Aquifer II caused by groundwater pumping from the aquifer in Changzhou, China. As groundwater levels of aquifers have been decreasing in recent decades due to uncontrolled water pumping, land subsidence is becoming a serious geohazard in Changzhou. Based on recently reported field data, the compression of aquitards has not increased compared to that of aquifers with the same scale of layer thickness. The Cosserat continuum model was adopted to analyse the observed phenomenon in this study. A classic Cauchy continuum model is also used for comparison. The comparison between these two models indicates that the proposed approach can interpret the increased deformation well, and the classic Cauchy continuum model underestimates the aquifer deformation as it does not consider shear displacement and macro-rotation. A discussion on the relationship between the groundwater level in the aquifer and subsidence is then undertaken. The results show that the severity of the annual subsidence is correlated with the variation in groundwater level in Aquifer II. To mitigate the subsidence hazards, countermeasures should be adopted to avoid the shear stress in aquifers which results from the high hydraulic gradient, by the appropriate allocation of pumping wells and by restricting groundwater withdrawal volume from each pumping operation.     

基于DFOS的苏州第四纪沉积层变形及地面沉降监测分析

苏州地区广泛分布松散第四纪沉积物,大量抽取地下水导致了苏州大范围的地面沉降,严重影响了该区经济发展。本文在苏州盛泽200m钻孔内安装了分布式感测光纤,采用BOTDR及FBG等分布式光纤感测技术(DFOS),对第四纪沉积层压缩及地面沉降进行了长期的监测分析。分析结果表明:苏州盛泽地区第四纪土层可分为3个含水层(Af)及4个弱透水层(Ad),现阶段含水层压缩已不明显,主要压缩层为与抽水含水层相邻的两个隔水层,且与抽水含水层距离越近的部位压缩越明显; 第四纪沉积层的变形与抽水含水层孔隙水压变化基本一致,呈现出夏季压缩,冬季略回弹的趋势,并且存在滞后现象; 定义压缩度为各层累计压缩量与其自身厚度的比值,即每米压缩量。各土层沉降趋势可用压缩度判断,对于黏土隔水层沉降程度Ad2 Ad3 Ad4 Ad1,对于含水砂层,Af2为主要变形层,Af1及Af3变形基本稳定。DFOS技术为研究地面沉降机理,评价土层压缩变形潜力提供了十分先进的监测手段。     

Modelling the cutoff behavior of underground structure in multi-aquifer-aquitard groundwater system

The quaternary deposit of Shanghai is composed of an alternated multi-aquifer-aquitard system (MAAS) consisting of a sequence of aquitards laid over aquifers one by one. In the MAAS, any drawdown of groundwater head in an aquifer may cause consolidation of the overburden aquitard. When underground structures penetrate those aquifers, groundwater seepage path changes and drawdown occurs at the side characterized by the lower hydraulic potential along the flow direction (hereafter refers as to the lower side). This drawdown may cause additional subsidence at the lower side and unbalanced load between the two sides of the underground structure. In order to evaluate the cutoff effect of an underground structure on groundwater seepage in a MAAS representative of the underground of the city of Shanghai, a numerical analysis based on a groundwater flow model has been carried out. The simulated results have shown that underground structures which cut off groundwater flow locally change both magnitude and direction of the flow velocity field. The induced changes in the groundwater field are highly sensitive to the penetration depth and width of the underground structure. Design recommendations for underground structures in aquifers belonging to a MAAS are also presented, which has not yet been considered in the engineering practice of Shanghai.     

地面沉降对含水层参数及给水能力的影响研究

地面沉降主要由深层地下水开采造成,含水层的压缩释水是深层地下水开采量主要构成来源,同时随其压缩变形孔隙比减小造成储水系数、渗透系数的减小,对弱透水层非弹性释水量、越流补给量造成影响。地面沉降过程中的水文地质参数非线性变化及对承压含水层系统的反馈作用也成为水文地质领域的前沿问题。为对地下水开采量、沉降量、地质参数变化以及给水能力变化之间的关系做一个较为定量定性的探究,以含水层压缩过程中的物理机制为依据,并基于沧州地区深层承压含水层的地下水位变化过程和水文地质参数,采用数学手段构建储水系数和渗透系数变化的一维非线性沉降模型。模拟结果显示随承压水头下降,储水系数最高可减小77%,含水层系统的给水能力和储水能力会随压缩变形减小50%甚至更多。研究成果为深入认识水文地质参数与应力变化相关关系、科学评价承压含水层地下水储水调节能力有重要借鉴意义。     

唐山沿海地区地面沉降渗流固结耦合模拟研究

唐山沿海地区经济在迅速发展,沿海地区城市化规模在扩大,地下水开采量增大,地面沉降加剧.文中分析了唐山沿海地区的水文地质条件,概化为3个含水层、3个弱透水层,共6个压缩层.建立了三维地下水流和垂向一维压缩完全耦合模型.采用25a的观测资料校正模型,计算值与实测值拟合较好,模型具有较高的仿真性和适用性.预测了10a末的地面沉降;当地下水以现有开采量开采时,沉降中心累计达1192.3mm, 10a沉降352.3mm,沉降速率为35.23mma-1;当地下水的开采量在现有开采量的基础上增加10%时,沉降中心累计达1260.8mm, 10a沉降420.8mm,沉降速率为42.08mma-1; 当地下水的开采量在现有开采量的基础上减小10%时,沉降中心累计达1088.7mm, 10a沉降247.9mm,沉降速率为24.79mma-1.增大10%的地下水开采量, 10a地面沉降量增加68.5mm;减少10%的地下水开采量, 10a地面沉降量减少104.4mm.因此,控制地下水开采量是控制地面沉降的有效方法.     

基于弱光栅技术的地面沉降自动化监测系统

光纤监测技术具有分布式、精度高等特点,在地面沉降监测中具有独特优势。但受限于监测成本较高与监测环境复杂,目前地面沉降光纤监测多通过人工采集数据,限制了在特殊环境变化情况下地面沉降的实时信息获取。文章在地面沉降钻孔全断面光纤监测技术的基础上,设计并建立了基于弱光栅技术的地面沉降自动化监测系统。该监测系统利用弱反射光栅、时分复用、物联网和数据库等技术,通过4G无线通信手段实现了地面沉降在线自动化监测和远程数据实时采集,并通过客户端系统软件实现数据的存储、查询和分析。将其应用到衡水地区地面沉降监测中,结果表明:钻孔内土层压缩变形主要发生在以黏性土为主的隔水层（Ad2、Ad3、Ad4）;受季节性地下水开采的影响,钻孔100～400 m深度范围内砂土含水层存在波动变化,在监测期内,冬季略回弹,随后春季地下水开采量增大,地下水位下降,土层呈现压缩趋势。监测结果验证了该系统的可行性与准确性,使得整个地面沉降监测流程趋于自动化、规范化和低成本化,具有广泛的应用前景。     

Numerical simulation of land subsidence induced by groundwater overexploitation in Su-Xi-Chang area,China

Su-Xi-Chang area is one of the typical regions in China which suffers from severe land subsidence. Various field monitoring records were integrated to study the characteristics and mechanisms of land subsidence in this region. The development of the land subsidence in this region shows a tight spatial and temporal correlation with the groundwater pumping. Based on the analysis of the field data, it is found that the deformation patterns of the hydrogeologic units are greatly related to the hydrogeologic properties and groundwater level variations. Some have an elastic behavior, others may have an elastic–plastic rheology. Hence, a 3D finite element numerical model considering the rheological properties of the soil was developed to simulate the groundwater level and land subsidence. Both hydraulic conductivity and specific storage were expected to vary with the porosity during the process of consolidation. Multiscale finite element method (MsFEM) was applied to solve the model during the period from 1996 to 2004. After calibrating the model with the observed groundwater level and subsidence data, the parameters of the multi-layers system were estimated. The calibrated model outputs fit reasonably well with the observed data. Consequently the model can be applied to predict groundwater level and land subsidence in future pumping scenarios. The model predictive results show that land subsidence rate can be controlled and even rebound may occur after the implementation of the groundwater exploitation prohibition. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Land subsidence in China

Land subsidence in China occurs in different regions. It is primarily caused by excessive groundwater withdrawal. Other reasons for the subsidence include the oil, warm groundwater withdrawal and the neotectonic movement. The common characteristics of land subsidence in China are slow, accumulative, irreversible, and other unique properties. The range of subsidence still keeps extending and the accumulative subsidence increasing though some measures taken. Adjustment of the aquifer exploitation practice is a subsidiary way to control land subsidence, but it cannot solve this problem completely. In a specfic way of groundwater changing, the contribution of a certain soil layer to the total subsidence depends on its compressibility and thickness. Besides the elasticity, both cohesive soil layers (aquitards) and sand layers (aquifers) are observed to be plastic and creep when the groundwater level fluctuates in a specific way, which often leads to subsidence delay.     

Excessive groundwater withdrawal and resultant land subsidence in the Su-Xi-Chang area,China

Excessive groundwater withdrawal has caused severe land subsidence in the Su-Xi-Chang (SXC) area, China. The restriction and prohibition on groundwater pumping have been carried out since the late 1990s. Based on the latest updated field data, the changing pattern of groundwater level and the distribution of land subsidence are analyzed. The distribution of land subsidence in SXC is closely related to that of the cone of depression in the second confined aquifer in time and space. But land subsidence is not in synchronization with the changing groundwater level. Both aquitards and aquifers compacted continuously in the early period of groundwater level rising and behaved as creep materials. A series of laboratory tests were conducted on aquifer sands, which indicated that the creep deformation under virgin compression is much greater than that under recompression and unloading, and that the creep of sands decreases rapidly with the cycles of repeating load. The test results reveal the mechanism of sand creep under the condition of long-term groundwater pumpage. As a consequence of the restriction and prohibition on groundwater pumping, groundwater level has obviously recovered in the vast majority of the SXC area, and land subsidence has slowed down and even a little rebound has occurred in some sites in Suzhou and Changzhou. If the pumpage is strictly limited continuously, the groundwater level will not decline below the historical lowest value but fluctuate within a certain range. In such a case, land subsidence in SXC will no longer develop obviously.     

Estimation of regional-scale groundwater flow properties in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh

Quantitative evaluation of management strategies for long-term supply of safe groundwater for drinking from the Bengal Basin aquifer (India and Bangladesh) requires estimation of the large-scale hydrogeologic properties that control flow. The Basin consists of a stratified, heterogeneous sequence of sediments with aquitards that may separate aquifers locally, but evidence does not support existence of regional confining units. Considered at a large scale, the Basin may be aptly described as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity. Though data are sparse, estimation of regional-scale aquifer properties is possible from three existing data types: hydraulic heads, ¹⁴C concentrations, and driller logs. Estimation is carried out with inverse groundwater modeling using measured heads, by model calibration using estimated water ages based on ¹⁴C, and by statistical analysis of driller logs. Similar estimates of hydraulic conductivities result from all three data types; a resulting typical value of vertical anisotropy (ratio of horizontal to vertical conductivity) is 10⁴. The vertical anisotropy estimate is supported by simulation of flow through geostatistical fields consistent with driller log data. The high estimated value of vertical anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity indicates that even disconnected aquitards, if numerous, can strongly control the equivalent hydraulic parameters of an aquifer system.     

Characterization of land subsidence induced by groundwater withdrawals in the plain of Beijing city,China

The plain of Beijing city in China suffers severe land subsidence owing to groundwater overdraft. The maximum subsidence rate could reach 6 cm/year through the 2000s. An integrated subsidence-monitoring program was designed, including levelling survey, borehole extensometers and multilayer monitoring of groundwater level, with the aim to understand both hydrological and mechanical processes and to characterize the land subsidence. From multilayer compaction monitoring, the major compression layers were identified. The major strata contributing to compression deformation are the second (64.5–82.3 m) and third (102–117 m) aquitards, which contributed around 39 % of the total subsidence. Meanwhile, irrecoverable deformations were also observed in the second (82.3–102 m) and third (117–148 m) confined aquifers; they exhibit elasto-plastic mechanical behavior, which is attributed to the thin beds of silt or silty clay. Stress–strain analysis and oedometer tests were conducted to study the aquifer-system response to pumping　and to estimate the specific storage of the major hydrogeologic units. The results reveal the creep behavior and elasto-plastic, visco-elasto-plastic mechanical behavior of the aquitards at different depths. The compressibility of the aquitards in the inelastic range is about one order of magnitude larger than for the elastic range.     

Application of grey theory-based model to prediction of land subsidence due to engineering environment in Shanghai

Land subsidence is a common geological hazard. The long-term accumulation of land subsidence in Shanghai has caused economic loss to the city. Since the 1990s, the engineering structures have become a new cause of land subsidence. Many factors affect the process of land subsidence. Although such a process cannot be explicitly expressed by a mathematical formula, it is not a “black box” whose internal structure, parameters, and characteristics are unknown. Therefore, the grey theory can be applied to the prediction of land subsidence and provides useful information for the control of land subsidence. In this paper, a grey model (GM) GM (1, 1) with unequal time-intervals was used to predict the subsidence of a high-rise building in the Lujiazui area of Shanghai, and the results were compared with the monitored data. The prediction of subsidence was also corroborated by laboratory tests and the results were compared with measured data and the predicted data by the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). It is found that the GM (1, 1) with unequal time-intervals is accurate and feasible for the prediction of land subsidence.     

Land subsidence and earth fissures due to groundwater withdrawal in the Southern Yangtse Delta,China

Excessive extraction of groundwater has caused severe land subsidence and earth fissures in the Southern Yangtse Delta, China. Based on field data, the temporal and spatial distribution of land subsidence is investigated and the causes for earth fissures are analyzed. The areal distribution of the land subsidence is closely related to the cones of depression in the main exploited aquifers. The compaction of a hydrostratigraphic unit depends on its mechanical behavior, thickness, compressibility, and the piezometric level changing. The primary subsidence layers in Shanghai have been the first aquitard before 1990 and the third confined aquifer since then. But the second aquitard unit was the primary subsidence layer in Changzhou. Earth fissures, trending in several directions, occurred in the Husu tectonic zone. They were mainly caused by differential subsidence and horizontal displacement that resulted from tensile stress and shear stress in units. The majority of fissures in the study area are tensile.     

Analysis of urbanisation-induced land subsidence in Shanghai

Since 1980, land subsidence has accelerated and groundwater levels have decreased in the centre of Shanghai, although the net withdrawn volume of groundwater has not increased. Theoretical analysis of the monitored data shows that the decrease in the groundwater level is the primary reason for the observed land subsidence. Meanwhile, the net withdrawn volume of groundwater in the urban centre of Shanghai has not increased during this period. Many underground structures have been constructed in the multi-aquifer-aquitard system of Shanghai since 1980. This paper discusses the factors related to the development of land subsidence during the process of urbanisation in Shanghai during the past 30?years. These factors include additional load during and after structure construction, the cut-off and/or partial cut-off effect of underground structures in aquifers, the decrease in the groundwater level due to leakage of underground structures and the reduction in recharge of groundwater from the surroundings.     

天津市地下水流-地面沉降耦合模型

天津市平原区地面沉降主要由地下水大量开采引起,影响范围广、危害大,已成为天津市主要的环境地质问题。分析了研究区的水文地质条件,结合地下水开发利用状况,将研究区概化为6个含水层组,地下水流考虑三维非稳定流,地面沉降选用一维固结压缩模型,运用地下水流模型Modflow 2005和地面沉降模拟模块 Sub,建立了天津市平原区地下水流-地面沉降数值耦合模型,模型面积为1.1×10⁴ km²,利用1998-2008年地下水位等值线、过程线、地面沉降过程线等资料对模型进行了识别。模拟期的地下水均衡分析表明,在多年开采条件下,越流补给、压缩释水、侧向边界流入分别占深层含水层补给量的41.84％、32.15％和24.17％。将调试后的模型应用于南水北调实施后地下水控采条件下的地面沉降趋势预测,显示出停采或减少地下水的开采,有利于减缓地面沉降下降速度,且表现出开采层位越往下,地面沉降恢复难度越大的变化趋势。