The Network-Max-P-Regions model

This paper introduces a new p-regions model called the Network-Max-P-Regions (NMPR) model. The NMPR is a regionalization model that aims to aggregate n areas into the maximum number of regions (max-p) that satisfy a threshold constraint and to minimize the heterogeneity while taking into account the influence of a street network. The exact formulation of the NMPR is presented, and a heuristic solution is proposed to effectively compute the near-optimized partitions in several simulation datasets and a case study in Wuhan, China.     

The investment-worth model: Concepts and methods for estimation of model parameters

A holistic investiment methodology defined as the investiment-worth model is developed to evaluate the risks and rewards of capital investments. The model demonstrates that the investment worth of a mining project is not the same for all firms in the industry. The attractiveness of a project varies with economic and risk-related characteristics of a firm.     

基于STIRPAT模型分析水资源控制下武威市城市发展模式

通过利用IGT方程分析1997-2010年武威市经济发展对水资源消费总量的影响,在此基础上利用STIRPAT模型定量分析水资源消费总量与人口、富裕度、城市化水平以及技术进步之间的关系,并经岭回归拟合发现人口数量、人均GDP、城市化水平和技术进步每发生1%的变化,将引起水资源消费总量相应发生0.790 1%、-（0.014 1+0.001 8 lnA）%、-0.088 0%和0.031 2%的变化。在上述模型分析的基础上,以武威市为例,通过设置10种不同的发展情景,分析了在何种情景下最有利于降低水资源消费总量。结果表明：当经济保持高速增长、城市化进程加快、节水技术取得较大进步且人口实行高控制时,最有利于武威市降低水资源消费总量,此时武威市2015年和2020年的水资源消费总量分别为188 927.27×10⁴ m³和184 409.79×10⁴ m³。     

新安江模型参数的不确定性分析

水文模型的不确定性研究是水文科学研究的重要课题。模型参数的不确定性分析是水文模型不确定性研究的重要内容之一。本文采用GLUE方法分析新安江模型参数的不确定性,结论基于对不同水文特征流域的长时间径流模拟,研究发现大量"等效性"参数组存在。据此将参数总结为三类:第一类为非敏感参数,如上层张力水容量UM等。它们对似然判据,及确定性系数(R²)影响小。第二类为敏感性参数,如河网蓄水消退系数CS等,其特点是对R²的影响大。第三类为区域性敏感参数,如张力水蓄水容量曲线的方次B等,它们对R²的影响力跟流域特征密切相关。这些结论有助于理解新安江模型参数,为今后流域水文模拟提供参考。文中还展望了未来水文模型不确定性研究的发展方向。     

MLR和PLSR的沙壤土盐分含量光谱检测对比研究

为了快速有效检测南疆地区典型土壤（沙壤土）的盐分含量变化,利用光谱仪和电导仪测得南疆阿拉尔市红枣种植区盐渍土近红外高光谱和电导率数据,基于7种不同光谱预处理方法和2种特征波长选择算法,分别建立多元线性回归（MLR）和偏最小二乘回归（PLSR）的土壤盐分监测模型。结果表明：7种预处理方法中,归一化,多元散射,变量标准化和一阶导数能够有效提高土壤盐分的预测模型精度。基于多元逐步回归（SMR）波长选择方法的多元线性回归（SMLR）模型的R_val²>0.948 9,RPD>6.294 9,RMSEP<0.435 6;基于连续投影算法（SPA）的多元线性回归（SPA-MLR）模型的R_val²>0.956 8,RPD>6.922 1,RMSEP<0.361 6,预测结果要优于偏最小二乘回归（PLSR）模型,其中基于归一化处理后的SMLR和SPA-MLR的预测精度最为理想,分别为R_val²=0.979 2,RPD=9.907 8,RMSEP=0.287 6和R_val²=0.980 5,RPD=10.50,RMSEP=0.278 3,而且筛选的特征波长较少。说明归一化是更有效的光谱预处理方法,多元线性回归（MLR）更适合建立南疆典型沙壤土盐分含量的预测模型。     

基于主成分分析土壤水分扩散率单一参数模型的BP神经网络模型

应用水平土柱法测定了杨凌地区典型粘壤土的水分扩散率,利用土壤水分扩散率的单对数模型和双对数模型对其进行了拟合,建立了土壤水分扩散率单一参数模型,基于主成分分析建立了单一参数模型中参数B的BP神经网络模型。结果表明：利用主成分分析可将研究区域土壤容重、有机质含量、粘粒含量、粗粉粒含量和砂粒含量综合成3个主成分;基于主成分分析建立的BP神经网络模型拟合的单一参数模型参数[B]的均方根误差RMSE为0.308 2;将拟合得到的参数B代入单一参数模型中对土壤水分扩散率进行预测,除去其中较大值的预测结果偏低外,其余土壤水分扩散率预测结果都比较接近实测值,预测结果的均方根误差RMSE为0.257 8,可利用基于主成分分析建立的BP神经网络模型预测单一参数模型中的参数B。     

A transport-rate model of wind-blown sand

Sand transport by wind plays an important role in environmental problems.Formulating the sand-transport rate model has been of continuing significance,because the majority of the existing models relate sand-transport rate to the wind-shear velocity.However,the wind-shear velocity readapted to blown sand is difficult to determine from the measured wind profiles when sand movement occurs,especially at high wind velocity.Detailed wind tunnel tests were carried out to reformulate the sand-transport rate model,followed by attempts to relate sand-transport rate to parameters of wind velocity,threshold shear-velocity,and grain size.Finally,we validated the model based on the data from field observations.     

Wave train model for knickpoint migration

Rivers respond to a drop in their base level by incising the topography. The upstream propagation of an incision, as usually depicted by a knickpoint migration, is thought to depend on several parameters such as the drainage area, lithology, and the amplitude of the base level drop. We first investigate the case of the Messinian Salinity Crisis that was characterized by the extreme base level fall (1500 m) of the Mediterranean Sea at the end of the Miocene. The response of drainage areas of three orders of magnitude (10³ to 10⁶ km²) highlights the dominant role of the drainage area (with a square root relationship) in controlling the knickpoint migration after a base level fall. A compilation of mean rates of knickpoint propagation for time durations ranging from 10² to 10⁷ years displays a similar relationship indicating that successive wave trains of knickpoint can migrate in a river: first, wave trains linked to the release of the alluvial cover and then, wave trains related to the bedrock incision, which correspond to the real time response of rivers. Wave trains with very low retreat rates (long lived knickpoints > 1 My) rather correspond to the response time of regional landscape.     

A probabilistic model of petroleum discovery

We discuss a petroleum discovery model that greatly simplifies the approach initiated by Barouch and Kaufman (1976) in which exploration is viewed as a sampling without replacement process, and the probability of discovery of a pool is proportional to its size. Calculations that formerly required lengthy Monte Carlo simulations have been reduced to compact formulas.     

Two-dimensional finite-difference model of seafloor compliance

Seafloor compliance is the measure of seafloor deformation under a pressure signal. Our new 2-D finite-difference compliance modelling algorithm presents several advantages over the existing compliance models, including the ability to handle any gridded subsurface structure with no limitations on the gradients of the material properties, as well as significantly improved performance. Applying this method to some of the problems inaccessible to previously existing methods, demonstrates that lateral variations in subsurface structure must be accounted for to adequately interpret compliance data. In areas with significant lateral variations, the utilization of 1-D modelling and inversion is likely to result in high interpretation errors, even when additional subsurface structure information is available. We find that flattened pure melt bodies have a significantly higher compliance than cylindrical melt bodies with the same cross-sectional area. The compliance created by such bodies often has side peaks over their edges, which are as strong as or stronger than the central peak, requiring a series of measurements to best constrain their size and shear velocity. Finally, we find that the compliance data are far and away most sensitive to the broad, thick, lower-crustal partial melt zone. Our simple data fitting model for the compliance measurements on the East Pacific Rise at 9°48'N required shear velocities as low as 700 m s⁻¹ in the centre of this zone, far below the values previously estimated using 1-D model based inversions, suggesting higher melt percentages than those previously estimated, while small melt bodies in the upper part of the crust were found to have little or no effect on the measured compliance.     

A model of time-periodic mantle flow

Summary. The instability of a layer consisting of a lighter viscous fluid on top of a heavier less viscous fluid is considered in the case when the heavy fluid is adiabatically stratified and the light fluid contains heat sources and possesses a lower heat conductivity. A perturbation in the thickness of the upper fluid layer causes horizontal temperature variations in the lower fluid. The motions induced by thermal buoyancy can interact with the distortion of the interface in such a way that the initial perturbation is reinforced in the form of an overstable oscillation. It is proposed that this mechanism is relevant to the problem of time-dependent flow in the Earth's mantle.     

Thickening model of the continental lithosphere

Summary. The thickening plate theory proposed by Yoshii and Parker & Oldenburg for the oceanic lithosphere is extended to include the continental lithosphere. The theory is based on the assumption that the lithosphere—asthenosphere boundary is a solidus and that as a result solidification of the top of the asthenosphere is occurring. Observational data imply that the relationship between the plate thickness and basement age for the North American continent is y = 1.7 √ t + (50 ± 10), where y (km) is the plate thickness and t (Myr) is the basement age.
The theory is tested against changes with basement age of the observed surface heat-flow and seismic estimate of plate thickness. The following conclusions are inferred:
(1) The changes both of the observed heat flow and plate thickness with basement age are explained by this theory.
(2) The surface erosion and vertical distribution of radiogenic heat sources are important factors in controlling the thickening process of the continental lithosphere.
(3) The equality of the average surface heat-flow over the oceans and over the continents is a consequence of a faster release of latent heat at the lithosphere—asthenosphere boundary under the oceans, instead of a higher heat production in the continental crust.