汶川地震序列动态跟踪分析及对甘肃震情的判定

在对四川省汶川县地震序列的动态跟踪与对甘肃省震情的动态判定过程中,笔者成功地把握了甘肃震情、一定程度上把握了汶川地震序列的动态发展变化并对5月18日发生在四川省江油市的6.0级地震作出了成功预测。此次成功的地震预测实践为甘肃省的抗震救灾工作提供了正确的科学依据,为减轻地震灾害和稳定被地震扰乱的社会秩序发挥了重要作用,同时也在中国地震预报的历史上写下了新的篇章。从中笔者更加深刻地感悟到,地震预报虽然是一个十分复杂、尚未被攻克的世界性难题,但对于一个特定的地区,如果预报思路和方法得当,要实现一次乃至数次成功的预报是可能的。这对地球科学家们如何认识地震预报问题有一定的意义。     

On the validity of time-predictable model for earthquake generation in north-east India

North-east India is seismically very active and has experienced many widelydistributed shallow, large earthquakes. Earthquake generation model for the region was studied using seismicity data [(1906–1984) prepared by National Geophysical Data Centre (NGDC), Boulder Colorado, USA]. For establishing statistical relations surface wave magnitudes (M _s≥5·5) have been considered. In the region four seismogenic sources have been identified which show the occurrences of atleast three earthquakes of magnitude 5·5≤M _s≤7·5 giving two repeat times. It is observed that the time interval between the two consecutive main shock depends on the preceding main shock magnitude (M _p) and not on the following main shock magnitude (M _f) revealing the validity of time predictable model for the region. Linear relation between logarithm of repeat time (T) and preceding main shock magnitude (M _p) is established in the form of logT=cM _p+a. The values ofc anda are estimated to be 0–36 and 1–23, respectively. The relation may be used for seismic hazard evaluation in the region.     

沉积物的地震及古地震效应*

古地震是依据地层中保留的沉积物变形记录而确定的。系统归纳总结地震诱发沉积物变形将为古地震研究提供理论基础,也有助于野外调查辨认这些记录。作者提出了一个初步的、供讨论与补充修正的地震触发沉积物变形分类的方案。变形的成因机制是分类的基础。这些特殊沉积物变形主要与地震有关,但其中一些变形往往也受其他多种因素的影响,因此要确定地震成因变形必须详尽研究相关的区域地质背景构造。     

储集层中高压流体引爆强地震的机理——以5.12汶川地震为例

目前产生地震的机制仍以弹性回跳说为主:地震是因为断层错断使岩层的弹性能释放而引发.但越来越多的学者开始质疑,仅断层错断后的弹性能,是否真能达到实际地震所释放的巨大能量.因此,有必要探讨地震初动后破坏性强震的性质及其真正的能量来源.文章根据沉积地层中的储集层及其压力的特点分析得出,储集层内含有大量的高压流体,其压力在一定...     

Hypotheses for earthquake occurrences

Very little work has been done in generating alternatives to the Poisson process model. The work reported here deals with alternatives to the Poisson process model for the earthquakes and checks them using empirical data and the statistical hypothesis testing apparatus. The strategy used here for generating hypotheses is to compound the Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson process is replaced by a random variable having prescribed density function. The density functions used are gamma, chi and extended (gamma/chi). The original distribution is then averaged out with respect to these density functions. For the compound Poisson processes the waiting time distributions for the future events are derived. As the parameters for the various statistical models for earthquake occurrences are not known, the problem is basically of composite hypothesis testing. One way of designing a test is to estimate these parameters and use them as true values. Momentmatching is used here to estimate the parameters. The results of hypothesis testing using data from Hindukush and North East India are presented.     

邢台地震使我与地震结下了不解之缘

本文介绍了作者因邢台地震而于１９６６年华东师范大学毕业后从事地震工作至今 的经历。本文是“福建省防震减灾三十年暨福建省地震学会成立二十周年”征文。     

Observations of the performance of buildings during the 1985 Mexico earthquake,and structural design implications

Summary The high amplification of the 1985 Mexico City earthquake is explained by the large number of strong and nearly continuous cycles of 2 s period motion lasting for more than 30 s. The type of damage caused by the earthquake—particularly to engineered multi-storey buildings of high flexibility is described, and methods of adding damping and stiffness elements to reduce and resist earthquake demand forces are discussed.     

阪神地震中大开地铁车站震害机制数值仿真分析

1995年阪神地震中,神户市的地下结构遭受了严重的破坏,尤其是地铁车站的破坏最为严重,其中大开地铁车站有一半以上的中柱发生坍塌,导致地面坍塌近2.5 m。对大开地铁车站的震害进行了全面地描述,基于大型商用有限元软件ABAQUS,采用在该软件上二次开发的土体非线性黏弹性动力本构模型模拟土在循环荷载作用下的动力特性,采用黏塑性动力损伤模型模拟混凝土在循环荷载作用下的拉、压应力-应变关系,对大开地铁车站的非线性地震反应进行了数值仿真分析,给出了破坏演化过程,把有限元分析的结果与大开地铁站的实际震害现象进行了对比,结果表明：数值仿真分析结果能够合理地解释大开地铁车站的主要震害现象,建模方法能够被用来进行地下结构的非线性地震反应分析。     

Dynamic process analysis for the initiation and movement of the Donghekou landslide-debris flow triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake

The Donghekou landslide-debris flow was a remarkable geological disaster triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008. The dynamic process of a rapid landslide-debris flow is very complicated and can be divided into two aspects: the slope dynamic response of the earthquake and the mass movement and accumulation process. A numerical method combined with a finite difference method (FDM) and discrete element method (DEM) for simulation of landslide-debris flow under seismic loading is presented. The FDM and DEM are coupled through the critical sliding surface, initiation time and velocity. The dynamic response of the slope is simulated by the finite difference method, and critical sliding surface is determined using the earthquake response spectrum method. The landslide initiation time and the velocity are determined by time–history analysis. The mass movement and accumulation process is simulated using the discrete element method. Simulation results demonstrate that the maximum amplification coefficient of dynamic acceleration for the Donghekou slope is approximately 3.909, the initiation time of landslide is approximately 6.0 s, and the average initial velocity of the sliding mass is approximately 0.85 m/s. The failure of the slope is the result of elevation-orientated amplification effect and the sliding mass triggered with a small initial velocity. The numerical simulated result of the maximum sliding velocity is approximately 66.35 m/s, and the mass is disintegrated rapidly because of collision and free fall. The landslide velocity decreases when the flowing mass reaches a lower slope angle and gradually comes to a stop, and the total travel distance is approximately 2400 m.     

地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震

自从1990年以来,通过对青藏高原的调查和研究,认识到下地壳流动同步形成盆地和造山带,并受控于相关洋盆地幔软流圈向大陆的顺层流动和底辟作用。下地壳不均匀流动通过韧脆性中地壳热能-应变能转换孕育地震,部分发震能量通过上地壳脆性断层释放。在地震孕育过程中通常会伴生跨年度干旱和异常降雨,构成热灾害链。近5年内青藏高原东部连续发生汶川、玉树、芦山大地震,形成于从亚东流经羊八井、安多、玉树并分支流向汶川和芦山—康定的下地壳"热河"的仰冲式和侧冲式撞击作用。从2008年9月以来连续发表5篇论文,根据地壳热构造和热灾害链的时空结构对芦山地震的三要素进行了长期和中期预测。2008年9月预测从2013年开始可能发生大地震,2012年9月将鲜水河—安宁河—小江异常热流构造带5年内将发生多个7级地震的首个大震锁定在芦山或西昌。芦山地震只释放了亚东—羊八井—安多—玉树—鲜水河—安宁河—小江"热河"剩余热能中的一小部分,在西昌—会理—昭通地区、道孚—康定地区、通海—石屏地区近5年内很可能发生4个7级左右的地震。此外,华北典型的热灾害链结构表明震情严峻,环渤海地区近3年内很可能发生大地震。从地震热流体撞击机理与地震异常之间的关联性出发,提出了动态立体监测及短临预测地震的思路和方法。     

An eyewitness account of the Bhuj earthquake

The occurrence of a severe earthquake is a rare event with its effect localized in a limited region. There are no prior indications of its occurrence too; hence experiencing such an event is just a matter of chance, which the author had by virtue of his posting at Bhuj. This paper presents a detailed account of observations made in the wake of the Bhuj earthquake of January 26th 2001, describing physical and mental reactions during the earthquake, the post-quake scenario, the nature and cause of damage to buildings, the trend of aftershocks, various deformities, including ruptures and fissures on the surface of the earth, etc. which may be useful for a detailed study of the seismological activity in the region.     

地震预报现状及相关问题综述

虽然对“地震能否预报”一直存在争论,但众多大地震的震例研究表明,前兆异常会或多或少地出现在地震孕育过程的不同阶段。国内外针对活动断裂的行为方式、大地震复发规律、活断层分段与大地震活动、大地震复发的概率预测和地震孕育过程与机理等,都提出了不同的理论模型,促进了地震预报的发展。中国的地震预报工作现状面临地质构造与地震地质工作基础仍明显不足、中长期地震预报工作程度亟需全面提高、中短期预报衔接不够和防大震意识还相对薄弱等诸多问题。基于这一现状与快速城镇化的国情,需在坚持地震预报研究的前提下,全面做好新构造、活动构造与地震地质方面的调查研究工作,夯实中长期地震预报的基础,并加强中短期预报的衔接,坚定防大震意识。同时切实加强防震减灾工作,有效提高强震活动区带上的建筑物与重大工程的抗震能力,并增强全社会的防震减灾意识,从而为地震预报研究提供持续发展的有利环境。     

Verification of our previous definition of preferred earthquake nucleation areas in Kanto-Tokai, Japan

We have proposed that points of future initiation of rupture may be mapped, based on minima in local recurrence times, which are equivalent to local maxima in the probability for main shocks to occur. These minima are often controlled by anomalously low b-values (logN = a − bM). Of the Kanto-Tokai area, approximately 12% showed anomalously short recurrence times and was proposed as asperities, based on seismicity up to 1999. During the period 1999–2003.5, about 75% of the earthquakes with M ≥ 3.5 fell into the asperities, earlier defined (for example 19 out of 23 M ≥ 3.8 events). The probability for this to occur by chance is approximately 2 10^− 14. This supports our idea that the most likely volumes to produce main shocks may be mapped by minima in local recurrence times.     

福建强震台网数据记录系统简介

本文概要介绍了强震仪主要技术参数、强震台网计算机系统及强震记录情况。     

卫星热红外地震短临预测方法研究

文章扼要介绍卫星热红外亮温异常的基本原理,分析建立地震短临预测遥感信息模型,通过11 a试验性预报实践和几个地震的案例,如南海东沙地震,台湾集集大地震,震例还有内蒙包头地震,美国华盛顿州奥林匹亚地震及印尼苏门答腊巨震等。从作为震兆的亮温异常提升到热应力场,对预测地震震中更加可靠和更有说服力,说明此项技术具有实际应用前景。     

Observations from the 12 October 1992 Dahshour earthquake in Egypt

An earthquake of local magnitude 5.3 (duration magnitudeM _d ) on the Richter Scale occurred at Dahshour, 18 km south of Cairo, Egypt, on Monday, 12 October 1992 at 3:09 pm (local time). Numerous aftershocks followed the main event during the following weeks with magnitude up to 4.3. The earthquake occurred in an area that has had no recent seismic activity, and affected many cities in Egypt. Many buildings and monuments were severely damaged or collapsed. Modern concrete skeletal structures suffered minor nonstructural damage. Earthquake physical damage was estimated at about one billion U.S. Dollars. The severity of the damage was mainly due to poor construction materials and detailing, aging, inferior workmanship, and inadequate maintenance. Egypt was generally considered to be an area of moderate seismic activity. In 1989, earthquake provisions were first introduced in the Egyptian Code of Practice for Reinforced Concrete Structures only. The earthquake clearly showed the urgent need for an assessment and rehabilitation program to mitigate seismic risk hazard in existing structures. In addition, future development planning, and earthquake preparedness strategies should implement lessons learned from the event. In this paper, an overview discussion about the observations from the 12 October earthquake is presented.     

汶川地震对冶勒大坝影响分析

冶勒大坝为沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝,最大坝高124.5 m,坝址地震烈度高、地质条件复杂。该坝址距离“5.12”汶川大地震震中258 km,地震发生时坝区有强烈震感。坝上布置了由9台强震仪组成的强震监测台阵及埋设有较完整的大坝安全监测仪器,在此次汶川地震中获得了较完整的地震记录和其他监测资料。通过对强震监测资料及地震前后大坝变形、应力、应变及渗流渗压等方面的分析,考察汶川大地震对冶勒大坝工作性态产生的影响。分析结果表明,地震对大坝整体的应力、应变、渗流渗压并未造成明显的不利影响,但对大坝局部结构产生了一些不利的影响。总体而言,整个大坝在遭遇Ms8.0级大地震之后,外观无异常现象,总体运行性态基本稳定。     

从苏门答腊-安达曼到日本东北:特大地震及其引发的超级海啸的启示

2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼MW9.1地震及印度洋超级海啸,以及2011年日本东北MW9.0地震及海啸与核泄漏,给人类带来了巨大的灾难。这两次灾难的接连发生充分暴露了迄今我们对于地震发生规律的认识水平还是很低的,启示我们需要继续加强对地震发生的规律性与地震预测预报的研究。在地震危险性评估中,要努力克服经验性方法的局限性,加强地应力测量以确定断层接近破裂的程度,更直接地估计地震危险性;要最大限度地运用地震、大地测量、地质、地貌等所有可资利用的资料,尽快将学术研究成果应用于防灾减灾实践。要重视不同观测资料的整合集成。要加强学科与学科之间的交叉渗透,自然科学与社会科学之间的合作交流,以及科学界与决策者和社会公众的相互沟通。要加强在海域对地震、海啸的多学科、多手段的监测工作,加强地震破裂过程复杂性的理论与应用研究,提高对地震、海啸(包括局地海啸)的监测、预测预报与预警水平。