EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE,EXPERIENCE AND APPRAISAL IN WELLINGTON,NEW ZEALAND

Data collected in Newlands, Wellington, New Zealand show a high level of earthquake experience by residents. Most respondents anticipated Future earthquakes and expected damage from future tremors, findings which generally differ from previous research. The denial of earthquake trouble is positively associated with older age.     

Strike-slip faulting, rotation, and along-strike elongation in the Kopeh Dagh mountains, NE Iran

The Kopeh Dagh is a linear mountain range separating the shortening in Iran from the stable, flat Turkmenistan platform. In its central part is an array of active right-lateral strike-slip faults that obliquely cut the range and produce offsets of several kilometres in the geomorphology and geological structure. They are responsible for major destructive earthquakes in the 19th and 20th centuries and represent an important seismic hazard for this now-populous region of NE Iran. These strike-slip faults all end in thrusts, revealed by the uplift and incision of Late Quaternary river terraces, and do not continue beyond the Atrak river valley, which forms the southern margin of the Kopeh Dagh. The cumulative offset on these strike-slip faults, and their associated rotation about vertical axes, can account for ∼60 km of N–S shortening. This value is similar to estimates of the Late Quaternary N–S right-lateral shear between central Iran and Afghanistan, which must be accommodated in NE Iran. The strike-slip faults also require ∼30 km of along-strike extension of the Kopeh Dagh, which is taken up by the westward component of motion between the South Caspian Basin and both Eurasia and Central Iran. It is probable that these motions occurred over the last ∼10 Ma.     

Precursory seismic quiescence in the Mudurnu Valley, North Anatolian fault zone, Turkey

The seismicity rate in the Mudurnu Valley of Turkey was studied using an earthquake catalogue that reports events homogeneously down to magnitude 2.3 for the years 1985–1989, and covers the area between latitudes 40.2° and 41.0°N, and longitudes 30.0° and 31.5°E. During this period the only two main shocks, M = 4.0 and M = 4.3, occurred on 1988 September 6 and 1988 December 9 within about 30km of each other. A highly significant seismic quiescence is evident in the area surrounding these main shocks, while the seismicity rate in the rest of the area covered by the catalogue remains constant. the quiescence becomes more pronounced the smaller the area around the main shocks that is studied. the smallest areas that can be studied contain about 60 earthquakes and have dimensions of approximately 25km on each side. the decreases in seismicity rates are 50–80 per cent depending on the volume and period used for defining the quiescence. the quiescence started in 1988 January and lasted about seven months, with approximately 4.5 months of normal activity separating it from the main shock of December. the precursor time of 12 months for an M = 4.3 main shock is similar to those observed in California. It is concluded that it is possible to resolve precursory quiescence before moderate and large earthquakes in the Mudurnu area with the existing seismograph network.     

Seismic quiescence before the M 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia

A detailed analysis of the 35  yr of seismicity between 1962 and 1997 using a gridding technique shows that the M 7, Spitak earthquake of 1988 December 7 was preceded by a quiescence anomaly that started at approximately 1984±0.5, and lasted about 5±0.5  yr, up to the main shock. This quiescence anomaly had a radius of about 20±3  km, estimated from circular areas with 75 per cent rate decrease, centred at the point of maximum significance of the anomaly. The quiescence was clearly present in the aftershock volume during the 5  yr before the 1988 main shock, but its statistically strongest expression was located 30  km NW of the epicentre. This anomaly fulfills the association rules between precursory quiescence anomalies and main shocks, even for a tight definition, and is therefore proposed as a case of precursory quiescence. The largest value of the standard deviate Z , found by random selection of samples by gridding, was Z =14 for a time window of T _w=3  yr, using a sample size of N =300 events. This makes this anomaly the strongest observed so far, and it is the first documented in an environment of continental collision. There are no false alarms exceeding in significance the precursor. The Armenian earthquake catalogue used for this study had 4600 earthquakes with M ≥ M _min=2.2 in the area bounded by 39.5° to 42°N/42.5° to 47°E. From the point of view of homogeneous reporting this is the best catalogue we have analysed so far. The limits of the data used and the density of the grid are dictated by the data, and have no influence on the results. The choice of free parameters does not influence the results significantly within the following limits: 100≤ N ≤500, 2≤ T _w≤7, 2.2≤ M _min≤2.8.     

Phenomena caused by seismic and geocryological processes across linear infrastructure, South Yakutia, Russia

High seismic activity, difficult permafrost and hydrogeological conditions of South Yakutia (Russia) complicate building and exploitation of engineering construction and require additional detailed and complex research. These conditions are evident within two sites. The first site is located in the middle reach of the Duray River, where it is crossed by the highway Lena. The second site is located on the right side of the Chulmakan River Valley, 400 meters to the east of the ESPO oil pipeline route. Seismic events, occurring four years ago, led to landslides in the mentioned sites. Formation of joint fissures on slopes assisted drainage of aquifers of free water exchange zone. It is worth noting that at the Duray River site, 59 cm of active soil slumping movement towards the roadbed has occurred within two summer months. Such a process is complicated by cryogenic disintegration of rocks in the base of the landslide body due to groundwater discharge and icing formation in winter.     

A note on the surface volume change of shallow earthquakes

Summary. This note presents an exact analytical formula for determining the magnitude of coseismic surface volume change (δ V ) of earthquake faults in a half-space. For a Poisson solid, the formula is remarkably simple; δ V = M _zz |8μ, where M _zz is one of the moment tensor elements of the source. Maximum δ V values derive from dip slip on faults plunging 45°. For these events, surface volume changes of 0.0001 and 4.3 km³ can be expected for magnitude 5 and 8 earthquakes respectively. All of the coseismic surface volume change is recovered in the interseismic period through relaxation of the Earth and rebound of the surface. A useful rule of thumb for estimating the magnitude of vertical rebound in 45° dip slip events is δ h _p=Δ s /24, where Δ s is the coseismic slip on the fault.     

The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors

Full scientific evaluation of proposed earthquake precursors for earthquake prediction is a problem because independent testing is difficult or impossible. To approach this difficulty, and to assess the current state of the art of earthquake prediction research, IASPEI has devised a peer-review procedure for precursor evaluation. The procedure does not consider predictions of impending earthquakes, but evaluates case histories of proposed precursors for past events according to stated validation criteria, which are specified in terms of guidelines concerning the hypothesized physical model, data quality, anomaly definition, the rules of association of precursor with earthquake, and statistical significance. So far, five precursors have been placed on a preliminary list of significant earthquake precursors, although none has satisfied the validation criteria well enough to ensure that their placement is permanent. Exclusion of a precursor from the list does not mean it is useless, but further work is required if it is to become convincing. The main objectives in producing the list are to establish a consensus on the criteria which a precursor must satisfy to be recognized as validated, and to find case histories which satisfy these criteria. Further nominations of precursor candidates are requested for evaluation by the IASPEI procedure.     

BAROQUE DISRUPTIONS IN VAL DI NOTO,SICILY*

Two earthquakes that struck Sicily nearly three centuries apart provide the basis for an interpretation of subsequent events. After the 1693 earthquake, local inhabitants rebuilt their towns in a version of baroque architecture that is unique to the region. After the 1990 quake, their descendants mounted a campaign to restore the crumbling landscapes and then, years later, to unite in opposition against an oil company that threatened the newly restored sites. Michel Serres's theory of the “parasite” informs a reading of the earthquakes and the events that followed them as agents that disrupted the flow of human‐environment relationships and produced hybridized landscapes and political alliances. In this way the Sicilian baroque is both a style of architecture and a mode of social and political mobilization.     

Landslide detection using probability regression,a case study of Wenchuan,northwest of Chengdu

Landslides have become one of the dominant disasters all around the world. Reliable and efficient landslide mapping is playing a significant role in landslide studies. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is little research on detecting multiple landslides simultaneously from images to stimulate practical cases. In this work, we propose a regression model to detect landslides and investigate its applicability in practical cases. It synthesizes contextual, spectral and geometric features. Among the test images, F-measure of landslide detection has a range between 0.771 and 0.998, validating its robustness and high efficiency.