SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF MIDTROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIMATE IN THE UNITED STATES DURING ENSO WINTERS

Numerous studies have documented that the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern is the dominant extratropical response to ENSO forcing affecting the circulation over North America. However, the PNA is not the sole pattern that occurs during ENSO events. This study identifies the dominant synoptic circulation patterns and associated temperature and precipitation departures that occur during ENSO winters. Using standardized departures of 500 mbar heights over North America and the North Pacific Ocean, a subjective classification of the anomaly maps for winter months identified as warm ENSO events identifies three basic categories of 500 mbar standardized anomaly patterns: Variations of the PNA pattern, the reverse PNA pattern, and patterns with no PNA signature. Composite standardized anomaly maps of the synoptic categories of 500 mbar heights as well as composites of standardized temperature and precipitation departures for the contiguous United States were constructed. Three variations of the PNA, accounting for nearly half of the ENSO winters, are presented, identifying various configurations of the 500 mbar anomaly field and their effect on precipitation and temperature distribution. Similar composites are presented for reverse PNA and non-PNA winters. [Key words: climatology, climate change, El Nińo/Southern Oscillation, troposphere.]     

SYNOPTIC CONTROL OF REGIONAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE COTERMINOUS UNITED STATES BETWEEN 1949 AND 1981

Regional patterns of January and mean annual temperature change between 1949 and 1981 are compared with regional changes in January precipitation totals and related to upper-level atmospheric circulation. During cold periods, cooling is concentrated in the eastern United States and is associated with a southward shift in the zone of maximum precipitation in the eastern United States (reflecting the mean position of the polar front jet), and with a strengthening of meridional flow aloft. During this same period, enhanced meridionality yields an increase in temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, associated with amplification of the mean long wave ridge over the Rocky Mountains. Warm periods in the eastern United States, conversely, correlate with a stronger zonal flow aloft (resulting in cooler, wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest). Accordingly, temporal variation in regional temperature trends may be more readily interpreted as responses to synoptic controls which yield departures of opposite sign in locales influenced by ridges vs. troughs, rather than as a reflection of uniform, progressive hemispheric or global temperature change.     

SPATIAL,SYNOPTIC, AND SEASONAL PATTERNS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

This paper examines the synoptic climatology and seasonality of heavy rainfall across the southeastern United States. Frontal systems (particularly cold fronts) were found to be the dominant mechanism that induces heavy rainfall across the study area, but tropical disturbances and air-mass storms also contribute, especially at the more coastal locations. Annual regimes were found to vary dramatically from one site to another, and seven of the eight sites investigated exhibited statistically significant seasonality. Generally, peaks in heavy rainfall are bimodal in the western portion of the region, occurring in the transitional seasons. The central portion of the region peaks in late winter and spring, whereas the area east of the Appalachians (including Florida) has summer peaks. This spatial pattern is likely related to patterns of mid-tropospheric air flow and positions of the Bermuda High in summer, and the seasonality of cyclogenesis in North America. [Key words: synoptic climatology, seasonality, heavy rainfall, storms, southeastern United States.]     

东北地区冬季降雪的集中度和集中期变化特征

应用1961-2005 年东北地区冬季的台站降水资料,计算并分析了东北地区降雪集中度和集中期的时空变化特征和集中度偏高时的环流特征.结果表明,东北地区降雪集中度呈逐年上升趋势,集中期呈明显下降趋势。从年代际变化上来看,集中期存在着12 年的长周期,在1970 年代中期之后存在8 年左右的短周期。从空间变化的情况来看,东北地区冬季降雪集中度由东向西依次增加,吉林的东部地区出现集中度最低值,辽宁中部、吉林中部存在着集中期的高值中心。对于东北不同区域,东北东部和中部变化趋势一致,集中度呈上升趋势,集中期呈下降趋势。东北西南部和东北北部降水集中度均呈微弱的上升趋势,其中东北西南部地区降雪的集中度上升趋势最弱。东北北部降水集中期的下降趋势最弱。在影响东北降雪集中度偏高时,在高空500 hPa 东北地区均处于东亚大槽控制,东亚大槽在东北西部加深,而在东北东部有高压易于形成并加强,导致东亚大槽东移缓慢。高、低空急流均明显存在,与低空急流相比,高空急流更强,位置偏西南。在太平洋上水汽输送的高值区明显增强,范围也增大,东北地区受沿高值中心北侧向西北向输送的水汽影响。     

Winter Cyclones and Circulation Patterns on the Western Great Lakes

The climatology of winter cyclones crossing the western Great Lakes was investigated. Data concerning storm strength, place of origin, and surface and 500 mb level synoptic characteristics were obtained from the months of October through February, 1955–1976, for 469 cyclones. November cyclones had the lowest mean pressure and strongest pressure gradient of the 5 months examined, but cyclonic frequencies were greatest in December and January. In all months, cyclones originating in the southwestern United States were significantly deeper than storms of northern origins, and these cyclones crossed the western Lakes most frequently in November. In November, cyclogenesis in the southwest was related to departures of the observed flow from the mean monthly mid-tropospheric circulation with trough development over the west. Yearly variations in the number of severe November cyclones were related to differences of mean monthly 500 mb flow.     

CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER ON THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT

Weekly snow cover areas, derived from the NOAA/NESS Northern Hemisphere Digitized Snow and Ice Cover Data Base, were correlated with weekly temperature anomalies across the United States and with weekly 700-mb geopotential heights over the North American sector. The correlations were computed for snow cover across the entire North American continent as well as the western and eastern United States for the winters 1966–67 through 1979–80. Extensive snow cover is associated with negative temperature anomalies across most of the continental United States. The strongest relationship occurs along the eastern flank of the Rocky Mountains from the Canadian border to the central Great Plains and reflects the southward movement of cold arctic air masses toward the Gulf of Mexico. An anomalous trough over the western part of North America is responsible for extensive snow cover in the winter. The surface storm track is displaced southward during winters with heavy snow cover, with cyclones occurring more frequently in the southern Plains and southeastern United States. Moist Gulf of Mexico air advected northward by the southerly flow aloft is an important prerequisite condition for the occurrence of extensive snow cover in the eastern United States during the first half of winter.     

Precipitation and Temperature Estimation Error at Alpine Treeline Ecotones Using the Mountain Climate Simulator Model (MT-CLIM)

In order to improve modeling of alpine treeline responses to climate change, estimations of snowfall at treeline sites are needed. The MT-CLIM climate model was evaluated for this purpose by extrapolating precipitation and temperature from standard weather stations at lower elevations to 30 alpine SNOTEL study sites across the western United States. Quantification of the topography between the base stations and the SNOTEL sites was used in inverse distance weighting and compared to straight-line weighting. The predicted temperature and precipitation under different weighting methods were compared to observed data over three months during the winter of 2006-2007. The errors were mapped and their spatial pattern analyzed. Error patterns indicate strong gradients, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, that are suggestive of areas where additional characteristics of atmosphere-land interactions and boundary layer climatology need to be considered in modeling applications.     

AVALANCHE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE CONTINENTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS

The avalanche hazard in the United States is most severe in the continental zone of Colorado, where property damage and deaths exceed those in any other state. The continental zone is normally characterized by a shallow snowpack, faceted crystal growth, and relatively fewer avalanches as compared to the coastal and intermountain zones farther west. This study illustrates that variations in the avalanche character in the continental zone may, at times, resemble some less continental characteristics that are found farther west as a result of anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns. Results from cluster analyses show that some sites in the southern portion of the continental zone generally represent a less continental character. Anomalies of 500-mb heights explain the variability of avalanche climates for selected sites, particularly for Berthoud Pass, within the continental zone. Negative heights over the southwestern United States during early winter correspond with less continental conditions, but the zone of negative heights tends to shift westward over the eastern Pacific Ocean during February and March. However, generalizations of how synoptic patterns govern avalanche climate variations also vary between different locations as a result of smaller-scale climatic controls that operate over the region. [Key words: avalanche climatology, continental zone, 500-mb heights, Rocky Mountains.]     

赤道中东太平洋关键区海温对宁夏春季降水的影响

基于宁夏全区范围内24个常规气象站近53 a春季降水量资料和美国气候预测中心1961-2013年Niño1+2和Niño3.4月平均海平面温度指数资料及NCEP/NCAR北半球月平均500hPa高度距平场再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)及滑动相关分析方法,对宁夏逐年春季降水量的空间分布进行分型,并分析了各空间分布型的时间演变特征,进一步研究了赤道中东太平洋关键区(Niño1+2、Niño3.4)海温是如何通过对西太平洋副高及500 hPa中高纬大气环流的影响来影响宁夏的春季降水。结果表明:近53 a来,宁夏春季降水全区一致偏多或偏少分布型的占比超过70%,21世纪后全区降水一致偏少型明显减少;前一年夏秋季节赤道中东太平洋关键区海温与次年宁夏春季降水存在持续5~8个月的显著高相关,其中7~9月相关最显著,且相关程度逐步提高;研究发现,前一年夏秋季节,赤道中东太平洋关键区海温异常,通过海气相互作用,对次年春季北半球500 hPa高度距平场上中高纬度大气环流的配置以及西太平洋副热带高压的位置产生明显的影响,近而影响形成次年春季宁夏降水的水汽来源以及空间分布。因此,这些前期的稳定强信号对宁夏春季降水预测具有明确的指示意义。     

Mineralogical maturity in dunefields of North America, Africa and Australia

Studies of dunefields in central and western North America show that mineralogical maturity can provide new insights into the origin and evolution of aeolian sand bodies. Many of the world's great sand seas in Africa, Asia and Australia are quartz-dominated and thus can be considered to be mineralogically mature. The Algodones (California) and Parker (Arizona) dunes in the southwestern United States are also mature, but have inherited a high degree of mineralogical maturity from quartz-rich sedimentary rocks drained by the Colorado River. In Libya, sediments of the Zallaf sand sea, which are almost pure quartz, may have originated in a similar fashion. The Fort Morgan (Colorado) and Casper (Wyoming) dunefields in the central Great Plains of North America, and the Namib sand sea of southern Africa have an intermediate degree of mineralogical maturity because their sources are large rivers that drained both unweathered plutonic and metamorphic rocks and mature sedimentary rocks. Mojave Desert dunefields in the southwestern United States are quite immature because they are in basins adjacent to plutonic rocks that were their sources. Other dunefields in the Great Plains of North America (those in Nebraska and Texas) are more mature than any possible source sediments and therefore reflect mineralogical evolution over time. Such changes in composition can occur because of either of two opposing long-term states of the dunefield. In one state, dunes are stable for long periods of time and chemical weathering depletes feldspars and other weatherable minerals in the sediment body. In the other state, which is most likely for the Great Plains, abrasion and ballistic impacts deplete the carbonate minerals and feldspars because the dunes are active for longer periods than they are stable.     

美国山地降水量垂直分布的研究

根据美国西部山地资料,依据宏观地理因素和局地海拔高度因素从各种气候区域和不同纬度上选择典型坡地研究了降水的垂直分布规律。     

A SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY OF NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TORNADOES

This study documents the spatial and temporal characteristics of northeast United States tornadoes and the synoptic patterns associated with their development. Daily 1200 UTC surface pressure, 500 mb height and 850 mb temperature data are used in a compositing analysis to indicate the general conditions on tornado-producing days during four quasi-seasonal periods. Temporally, two-thirds of all northeast tornadoes occur between the hours of 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC. Annually, greater than 75% occur during the four-month period from May through August. During the period of study (1950 through 1986) the region had an average of 30 tornado occurrences per year. Spatially, three preferred areas of tornadic development are identified across the northeast region. These areas include western and southeastern Pennsylvania and north-central Massachusetts. The general synoptic patterns associated with tornadic events in the northeast United States remain consistent throughout the year. The composite analyses indicate that the presence of a strong surface low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes, coupled with significant upper-level divergence associated with a vigorous shortwave feature and a cold frontal boundary, are the synoptic features most common during the initiation of tornadic storms in this region. [Key words: synoptic climatology, tornadoes, northeastern United States.]     

陕西盛夏多雨年与少雨年的大气环流特征分析

应用NCEP/NCAR 1979—2004年再分析资料,针对陕西盛夏（7—8月）降水的情况,分析了汛期降水异常的大气环流特征。结果表明:陕西汛期多雨年,影响降水的主要天气系统表现为“三强一弱”,即西太平洋副热带高压、西风带蒙古低槽、乌拉尔山阻塞高压强,青藏高压弱;少雨年天气系统表现为“三弱一强”,即西太平洋副热带高压、西风带蒙古低槽、乌拉尔山阻塞高压弱,青藏高压强。另外,在多雨年,500 hPa流场,在陕西中部有一条东西向的切变线或风向辐合区;850 hPa形成了孟加拉湾经四川盆地到陕西和南海经鄂西北到陕西的水汽通道;少雨年500 hPa河套中部为西北气流控制,850 hPa水汽通道不明显或水汽输送中途减弱。     

INTERANNUAL TO INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF THE REGIONALIZED SURFACE CLIMATE OF THE UNITED STATES AND RELATIONSHIPS TO GENERALIZED FLOW PARAMETERS

This analysis attempts to discern primary causes of interannual and interdecadal climate variations for precipitation and temperature regions of the conterminous United States. Varimax rotated principal components analysis of annual climate division data is used in the derivation of nine precipitation and five temperature regions. Each region's time series is examined for underlying linear trends, representing long-term climate change, and tests for variance changes, to determine regional climate variability shifts. The first six precipitation components, representing the entire eastern half of the country and the Northwest, displayed significant temporal increases. Of these, four displayed significant increases in interannual variability through time. For temperature, only the Southwestern region showed a significant change (increase) through time. However, significant reductions in temperature variability were confirmed for three regions. To determine the causes of the derived climate shifts, correlation analysis was performed with various atmospheric teleconnection indices. Precipitation trends are most strongly associated with variations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at the interannual time scale while interdecadal variations are associated more with variations in the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection. Both interannual and interdecadal variations of regional temperature are most strongly related to the PNA, except for the Southwest, which showed a significant correlation to the SOI. This suggests that El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are the source for much of the precipitation change evident in the eastern and Northwestern United States and temperature change in the Southwest. [Key words: climate change, precipitation, temperature, El Niño, Southern Oscillation, United States climate.]     

Interdecadal change in Western Pacific Subtropical High and climatic effects

Western North Pacific Subtropical High is a very important atmospheric circulation system influencing the summer climate over eastern China. Its interdecadal change is analyzed in this study. There is a significant decadal shift in about 1979/1980. Since 1980, the Western North Pacific Subtropical High has enlarged, intensified, and shifted southwestward. This change gives rise to an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the South China Sea to western Pacific and thus causes wet anomalies over the Yangtze River valley. During the summers of 1980–1999, the precipitation is 63.9 mm above normal, while during 1958–1979 it is 27.3 mm below normal. The difference is significant at the 99% confidence level as at-test shown. The southwestward expanding of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High also leads to a significant warming in southern China, during 1980–1999 the summer mean temperature is 0.37°C warmer than that of the period 1958–1979. The strong warming is primarily due to the clearer skies associated with the stronger downward air motion as the Western North Pacific Subtropical High expanding to the west and controlling southern China. It is also found that the relative percentage of tropical cyclones in the regions south of 20°N is decreasing since the 1980s, but in the regions north of 20°N that is increasing at the same time. The Western North Pacific Subtropical High responds significantly to sea surface temperature of the tropical eastern Pacific with a lag of one-two seasons and simultaneously to sea surface temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean. The changes in the sea surface temperatures are mainly responsible for the interdecadal variability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High.     

A SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTREME UNSEASONABLE FLOODS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, 1950–1990

Unseasonable floods are floods that occur in the season of lowest flood frequency, or dry season. Such floods pose a unique problem to flood planners and forecasters, yet little research has investigated the physical processes associated with unseasonable floods. The purpose of this study is to construct a synoptic climatology of extreme unseasonable floods for the southeastern United States. Results indicate that the types of storms creating unseasonable floods are location specific, with four unique regions across the study area: Carolina (tropical storms/hurricanes), Georgia Coastal Plain (Gulf depressions), Gulf-Atlantic (frontal), and Tennessee (frontal with upper-air enhancement). The precipitation created by these storms is low to moderate, rarely exceeding the 10-year 24-hour storm total. The precipitation levels suggest that a combination of meteorological conditions and land-surface conditions create the extreme events. A statistical analysis indicates that high soil-moisture levels combine with the moderate rains to produce extreme unseasonable floods. [Key words: unseasonable floods, synoptic climatology, land-surface conditions, southeastern United States.]     

西北东部气候异常特征及其对冬季高原感热的响应

利用1960—2000年西北东部100个测站,经过面积权重区域平均的降水、气温资料,对该区域气候异常进行分析。结果表明：①对异常旱涝年,亚洲西风带环流及西太平洋副热带高压的位置最为关键。异常涝年,亚洲地区经向环流占优势,东亚大槽偏东,西太平洋副热带高压偏北;异常旱年,亚洲地区纬向环流占优势,东亚大槽偏西,西太平洋副热带高压偏南。②对异常冷暖年,极涡、西风带环流以及西太平洋副热带高压的状况最为关键。气温异常偏高年,北半球极涡强度及亚洲极涡强度均偏弱,欧亚地区盛行纬向环流,西太平洋副热带高压面积偏大,强度明显偏强,西伸脊点明显偏西,位置偏北;气温异常偏低年,北半球极涡强度及亚洲极涡强度均偏强,欧亚地区盛行经向环流,西太平洋副热带高压面积偏小,强度明显偏弱,西伸脊点明显偏东,位置偏南。③冬季高原感热与滞后一个季度的夏季降水、气温的相关较春季的相关更好。     

北太平洋风暴轴的异常活动与辽宁省冬季最低气温的联系

利用1975-2015年辽宁省52站逐日最低气温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过合成分析、相关分析等统计方法,对辽宁省冬季最低气温及北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变特征进行研究,初步探讨了北太平洋风暴轴的异常活动与辽宁省冬季最低气温的可能联系。结果表明,辽宁省冬季最低气温突变年为1986年,20世纪80年代中期以后气温表现出偏暖特征。北太平洋风暴轴与辽宁省冬季最低气温间存在同步一致地变化特征,风暴轴活动强年,辽宁省受西南气流控制,阿留申低压、西伯利亚高压强度减弱,同时东亚大槽减弱北退,东亚西风急流偏北,东亚冬季风系统活动减弱,不利于冷空气向南侵袭,辽宁省冬季最低气温偏高,反之在风暴轴活动弱年,辽宁省冬季最低气温偏低。与北太平洋风暴轴相关联的中高纬度大气环流异常变化是风暴轴强度与辽宁省冬季最低气温关系产生变化的主要原因。     

CLIMATOLOGY OF STATEWIDE EXTREME TEMPERATURES DURING WINTER MONTHS IN THE COTERMINOUS UNITED STATES

A 20-year (1961-1980) record of statewide extreme maximum and minimum temperatures for the winter season is examined for the coterminous United States. Extreme maxima exhibit a zonal pattern, modified somewhat by terrain features in the west. Extreme minima are more dramatically skewed from a zonal orientation, because of the effects of elevation and proximity to oceans. Interannual variability in the record of extreme temperatures appears to be dictated by proximity to air-mass source regions (e.g., low variability of minima in the Upper Midwest, low variability of maxima in the Deep South) and sensitivity to the position and amplitude of mid-tropospheric circulation and snowpack dynamics (e.g., high variability of minima in the Ohio Valley). Strong, spatially coherent patterns of correlation between statewide extremes and amplitude of midtropospheric flow are evident (negative correlation with enhanced troughing in the east; positive correlation with enhanced ridging in the west). Lag correlations with ENSO indices suggest a relatively weak linkage between antecedent conditions in the Pacific and the degree of extremeness of maximum (but not minimum) temperatures in the eastern United States. [Key words: extreme maximum temperatures, extreme minimum temperatures, climatic variability, meridionality indices, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, snowpack.]     

Trends in Interdiurnal Temperature Variation for the Central United States, 1945–1985

Temporal variation in the absolute value of interdiurnal variability (AIDV) of January maximum temperatures is examined for the period 1945–1985 in the central United States (90°–105°W). AIDV indicates the magnitude of day-to-day changes in the maximum temperature. Five-year running-mean AIDV values decreased significantly throughout the period. This trend was apparent for the region overall and for the 10 of the 20 study sites analyzed individually. Temporal variation in AIDV values was significantly related to mid-tropospheric flow patterns over the central United States. Meridional circulation was associated with smaller AIDV values in all sites except those in the northwestern and southeastern corners of the study area, whereas zonal flow was linked to larger interdiurnal temperature change. The analysis of selected individual years indicated that mid-tropospheric circulation patterns were more persistent with meridional flow, and surface cyclones and their associated surface fronts tracked through the study area less frequently than in years with zonal flow. Analysis at a daily temporal resolution revealed an added dimension of trends in temperature variability beyond those apparent with a coarser monthly resolution. These results emphasize the importance of finer temporal resolution in the analysis of both past and projected climate change; regionally summarized monthly temperature values mask important variation in temperature trends apparent at shorter temporal and more local spatial scales.