PERCEPTIONS OF CRIME AND SAFETY IN THREE MIDWESTERN PARKS*

While recent research provides a general model of the causes and consequences of fear of crime, little is known about how the relationships among these model components may vary from one setting to another. Garofalo's fear of crime model is used to explore the extent and impact of fear of crime in recreational settings. Two hundred sixty-eight visitors to three Midwestern district level parks were interviewed on-site using a structured questionnaire. Results generally support the model and demonstrate a link between perception and behavior related to fear of crime. Respondents who felt unsafe in the park alone also tended to report avoidance behavior. Females were more likely than males to report both fear and avoidance. Direct experience with park crime and incivility, perceptions of other park visitors, and familiarity with the park were not strongly associated with either feelings of safety or reported avoidance.     

论天山山麓带第四纪的重大事件及其深入研究的必要性

本文简要论述了天山南北山麓地带第四纪的重大事件。它们是强烈的第四纪构造活动、黄土堆积、山麓冰川作用以及古人类活动等。指出这些事件中诸多问题需要深入研究的必要性。     

小良试验站三种植被类型地表径流效应的对比研究

本文分析研究了３种植被类型下的地表径流在汇流、洪峰及径流过程上的特征，差异是巨大的。在径流过程上桉树林和裸地的变地剧烈，几乎没有什么调蓄作用，洪峰流量占一次性降水径流量的绝大部分，涨水和退水流量都较小。本文应用灰色系统ＧＭ（２，１）模型，成功地预测了以年和以月为时间尺度的地表径流序列，其预测模型可以用来对这些时间尺度的地表径流进行预报。     

西北太平洋热带气旋活动的强度与频度分布规律初探

在结西北太平洋地区大量热带气旋观测资料的统计分析和数学似合分析的基础上,得出了热带气旋的强度一时间分布关系和频度一空间分布关系,并发现了两种分布关系具有相似的分布函数形式。     

基于South Pole站和McMurdo站的极区电离层闪烁统计特性

利用South Pole和Mc Murdo两站2013年12月至2014年11月期间的电离层相位闪烁数据,统计分析了两站电离层相位闪烁发生率的周日分布和季节分布。统计结果表明,两站的相位闪烁发生率在季节分布上,春秋季明显大于夏冬季;在周日分布上呈双峰结构。在磁中午附近和磁子夜后有较大的闪烁发生率。磁中午附近是因为极隙区的软电子沉降和电离层对流导致的电离层不均匀性,造成较强的无线电波闪烁;磁子夜附近闪烁增强可能是穿越极盖区的等离子体云破碎造成较大密度梯度导致。总体上说,Mc Murdo站的闪烁发生率高于South Pole站,这可能是因为它们所处的磁纬不同所致。     

水生植物对水面温度和蒸发量的影响

浅水湖泊和平原水库蒸发量的测定，应包括水生植物的蒸发规律，其测定方法必须用隔热蒸发器。     

南极臭氧洞期间中山站和昭和站大气臭氧的中期振荡特征

本文用１９９３和１９９４年７～１２月中山站及昭和站大气臭氧观测资料和１９９３年７～１２月中山站地面温度、气压及戴维斯站探空资料，对南极臭氧洞期间中山站和昭和站的中期振荡特征进行了研究。结果表明：准一周和准二周振荡是南极地区大气臭氧和各层次温压参数普遍存在的两种主振荡周期，且在不同年份其振荡强度也有所不同。在中山站和昭和站地区，１９９３年大气各参数的准二周振荡强度大于准一周振荡，准一周和准二周振荡都是由西向东传播的；而在１９９４年则除准一周振荡外未出现准二周振荡。在普里兹湾地区平流层中下部臭氧和等压面高度、温度准一周和准二周振荡的位相差很小，振荡是同时发生的。准一周和准二周振荡都可以由上而下或由下而上地穿越对流层顶，平流层和对流层的中期振荡有着密切的关系。准二周振荡是大气中普遍存在的一种天气尺度的中期振荡，在不同地区可以对应不同的天气实体。在南极地区，大气臭氧总量的准二周振荡可能是极涡本身固有振荡的反映，而周期较短的准一周振荡则可能是外来扰动强迫振荡的反映。     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CLIMATOLOGY OF SNOWSTORMS IN THE DEEP SOUTH

Significant snowstorm events occurring during the winters from 1948/49 through 1989/90 are studied using a network of 100 weather stations across the southern states of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. To qualify for entry into the snowstorm inventory, at least 10 out of the 100 sites need a minimum of 25 mm (1 inch) of snowfall. A total of 69 events are identified and further categorized into four magnitudes based upon areal coverage or total snowfall amount. The storms are also classified into regional categories based upon the dominant part of the study area affected. The spatial characteristics of the snowstorms are discussed and illustrated with maps showing snowfall distributions for representative storms. Most events impact the northern portions of the study area although some very major storms fit into a Miscellaneous category with unique snowfall distributions in the southern or central parts of the Deep South. The temporal character of snowstorm frequency reveals that a very low number of events occurred during the 1950s with peak occurrence during the 1960s. Snowstorms generally remained more frequent during the 1970s and 1980s compared to the 1950s.     

上海城市太阳辐射与热岛强度

本文根据上海1984年有代表性的154天,进行影响上海城市热岛强度的回归分析。发现城市热岛强度与太阳直接辐射日总量为正相关,与风速和云量为负相关。太阳直接辐射日总量对城市热岛的影响与城乡下垫面的反射、吸收和增温、冷却的差异有关。我们又用气象卫星资料,结合实测的太阳辐射日总量和城、乡的气温、云量、风速等气象资料,对上海1984年不同季节城市热岛的若干典型个例进行分析,说明上海城市太阳直接辐射日总量对上海城市热岛形成及其强度变化起着重要作用。     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN A SMALL MIDWESTERN CITY

Location, timing, and intensities of urban atmospheric moisture anomalies in the relatively small city of Lawrence, Kansas are mapped, explained, and compared with previously studied cities. Forty-five urban-rural dew point distributions were obtained during mornings, afternoons, and evenings in August, September, and October. A meteorologically-equipped auto was used to traverse an 88.5-km route through the major land uses in the city and surrounding countryside. Rural dew points exceeded urban values much more frequently than the reverse. On several dates, a reversal of the urban-rural dew point relationship occurred; in the afternoon, rural dew points were greater than urban values, but at night urban values exceeded those in rural areas. Lowest values often corresponded with the most developed sections of the city, and the central business district exerted the most consistent influence on dew points. Greatest gradients developed on the periphery of the developed area. Pattern complexity was generally at a maximum in the afternoon and was least complex during morning hours. Results compare and contrast with previous urban-rural humidity studies.     

THE CONCEPT AND MEASURE OF AGRICULTURAL INTENSITY

Analyses of agricultural growth in subsistence economies may be facilitated if agricultural intensity is viewed in terms of the concentration of production or yield per unit area and time. This view of agricultural intensity is implicit in many growth arguments and is consistent with their purpose. Limited production data from various subsistence economies necessitate the use of a surrogate measure of intensity that is based on a variety of input factors.     

三种土壤铅和镉的质量基准初步研究*

在制定地下水源保护区污染控制措施时,最常遇到的问题之一是缺少土壤包气带和含水层中化学物质的基准和标准。文中以铅、镉为例,结合北京、唐山地下水水源地实际情况,运用“平衡分配法”,根据土壤对铅和镉的吸附容量和分配系数研究包气带土壤中的铅和镉的质量基准。结果表明,土壤中铅和镉的质量基准与溶液pH值成对数线性关系,据此可计算不同pH条件下的土壤中重金属的质量基准。     

ON CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE PRODUCT OF THREE MEANS OF THREE NORMALEY DISTRIBUTED POPULATIONS

In many environmental applications,such as exposure assessment and risk modelling,the desiredestimate is a random variable computed as the product of three independently distributed randomvariables.These variables may not necessarily have the same mean and variance.The method for findingthe 100(1-α)% confidence interval for the mean of the product random variable has been proposed bysome practitioners as the product of the 100(1-α)% confidence interval of the three means.In this paperwe show that the distribution of the product of three independent normal random variables is not normal.We find the mean and variance of the product distribution.Further,we show that although the meanof the product is equal to the product of the means,the product of the three confidence intervals is nota good approximation of the confidence intervals for the mean of the product variable.The confidenceinterval of the mean of the product variable may be estimated by computer simulation.An algorithmfor estimating the confidence interval for the mean of the product random variable is given.The programimplementing this algorithm is given as an appendix.     

南极地区UV-B气候学现状与展望

自１９８５年发现南极春季臭氧洞以来，对于臭氧大幅度减少所引起的可能后果与危害引起了国际关注。臭氧减少的直接后果之一是到达地表的ＵＶ－Ｂ辐射增强，从而引起生态系统的不利变化。因此，围绕南极地区ＵＶ－Ｂ辐射变化的测量和研究开始得到重视，并逐步建立南极地区ＵＶ－Ｂ气候学。本文评述了国际上在这方面工作的进展，提出了需要进一步解决的问     

DISTRIBUTIONS AND HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINSTORMS AND FLOODS IN CHINA

I.horoductionPleNorthwestPacificOceanisti1elnostfrequentlyaffeCtedareaoftropicalcyclone(TC).AboLIt36percentTCoftheworldoccurinffosarea[2],andthenumberofTCWhichlandedonChinawiti1n1akimumwindforcescalesoverlOisabout35percentofti1atintheeastemcoastalcoLUitriesofAsia[l].BothrainstormsandfloodsMide,theidriuenceofTCareheaVyinChina,suchastherainfalldePthof2749mm/3datXinliao,Taiwanandpeakdischargeof44,6oOm'/satHuanggo(55,42okn'),YalujiangRjver.Therefore,TCisanimportantfaCtorforflooddisas…     

南极普里兹湾表层沉积物有机地球化学特征及其生态环境意义

用气相色谱和气相色谱-质谱分析法分析了南极普里兹湾5个站位表层沉积物中多种生物标志物,探讨了其生态环境指示意义。结果显示:(1)湾内中心区总类脂物含量最高(1 193μg·g-1),埃默里冰架区次之(572μg·g-1),陆坡区最低(341μg·g-1),且与沉积有机碳、总糖、生物硅、菜籽甾醇、表层海水叶绿素a等参数显著正相关(p0.1),表明底层有机质与上层水体浮游植物密切相关;(2)C27甾烷含量与C28甾烷显著负相关(p0.01),指示着晶磷虾与硅藻的食物链关系;(3)相对较高的饱和烃/芳烃比值(2.5)、较低的Pr/C17(0.5)和Pr/Ph(2)证明沉积有机质主要来源于硅藻等浮游植物,同时饱和烃双峰群(C17或C18和C29)的存在及较高含量的C29甾烷(35.79%)指示外域有机质输入,且湾中心区的(CPI=1.60,Pr/Ph=0.69)要高于陆坡区和冰架区(CPI=1.01,Pr/Ph=0.39);(4)湾内中心区和冰架区脂肪酸C18:2/C18:0平均比值(0.78)要高于陆坡区(0.23)和低纬度地区(0.1),表明南极夏季普里兹湾陆坡区的表层海水温度要高于湾中心区和冰架区。     

三峡库区经济发展评价

当前三峡库区经济发展存在主要产业经济效益低，国有产业亏损大，产业规模小，城镇经济中心作用弱等突出问题．库区开发必需是持久战和持续发展相结合，将库区基础设施建设放在重要地位，搞好资金、行业、所有制之间的优化组合，大力发展第三产业；要准备用几十年的艰苦奋斗，才能赶上全国平均水平．     

东南极大陆边缘地区夏季近地面层风场特征分析

本文介绍了“2007-2008国际极地年”期间在南极东部大陆边缘伊丽莎白公主地区进行的风场结构观测实验。自动气象站(Automatic Weather Station,AWS)观测数据的统计分析结果表明,夏季该地区冰盖上的近表面风场主要是由下降风控制,而沿海地区的风场则由于海陆热力学性质的差异呈现出冰盖下降风与局地海陆风交互作用的特点。个例研究表明在冰盖下降风占优时段内,伊丽莎白公主地区的近表面风场具有相当规律的日变化特征,太阳人射辐射规律的日变化是这一现象出现的根本原因。多普勒声雷达对风场垂直结构的观测表明,150 m以下的各高度水平风矢量的变化特征与近地面层风场近似一致,冰盖下降风和海陆风旺盛阶段,偏东风和偏西风的高度可达650 m之高。