INTERANNUAL TO INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF THE REGIONALIZED SURFACE CLIMATE OF THE UNITED STATES AND RELATIONSHIPS TO GENERALIZED FLOW PARAMETERS

This analysis attempts to discern primary causes of interannual and interdecadal climate variations for precipitation and temperature regions of the conterminous United States. Varimax rotated principal components analysis of annual climate division data is used in the derivation of nine precipitation and five temperature regions. Each region's time series is examined for underlying linear trends, representing long-term climate change, and tests for variance changes, to determine regional climate variability shifts. The first six precipitation components, representing the entire eastern half of the country and the Northwest, displayed significant temporal increases. Of these, four displayed significant increases in interannual variability through time. For temperature, only the Southwestern region showed a significant change (increase) through time. However, significant reductions in temperature variability were confirmed for three regions. To determine the causes of the derived climate shifts, correlation analysis was performed with various atmospheric teleconnection indices. Precipitation trends are most strongly associated with variations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at the interannual time scale while interdecadal variations are associated more with variations in the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection. Both interannual and interdecadal variations of regional temperature are most strongly related to the PNA, except for the Southwest, which showed a significant correlation to the SOI. This suggests that El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are the source for much of the precipitation change evident in the eastern and Northwestern United States and temperature change in the Southwest. [Key words: climate change, precipitation, temperature, El Niño, Southern Oscillation, United States climate.]     

REGIONAL-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES: TEMPORAL CLIMATOLOGY,TELECONNECTIONS, AND CLIMATIC IMPACT

Regional-scale middle- and upper-tropospheric troughing over the southwestern United States represents a departure from the modal circulation pattern for western North America. Once developed, southwestern troughs often are associated with positive vorticity advection aloft, surface cyclone formation, and moisture advection over areas of the western Great Plains and Intermountain West. These trough systems may play an important role in the precipitation climatology of the western and central United States. However, very little work has focused on the temporal climatology, developmental characteristics, or climatic impacts of southwestern troughs. This study provides a detailed climatology of southwestern troughing that focuses on: (1) the temporal frequency of these events; (2) the teleconnective circulation changes that are associated with their development; and (3) the importance of these systems in the precipitation climatology of the western and central United States.

The temporal climatology of southwestern troughs reveals that most of these systems occur during spring and autumn, with somewhat fewer events in winter and very few events in summer. An examination of 500-mb geopotential height and 24-hr height change composites during trough development shows that much of the wave-train activity that accompanies trough onset is limited to the North Pacific and North American regions. These changes are characterized by the amplification and eastward movement of a ridge/trough couplet over the eastern Pacific, which is preceded by synoptic-scale transient wave activity over the western and central Pacific. While southwestern troughs occur less than 30% of the time, southwestern trough-derived precipitation comprises over 60% of the monthly totals for some sites.     

CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER ON THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT

Weekly snow cover areas, derived from the NOAA/NESS Northern Hemisphere Digitized Snow and Ice Cover Data Base, were correlated with weekly temperature anomalies across the United States and with weekly 700-mb geopotential heights over the North American sector. The correlations were computed for snow cover across the entire North American continent as well as the western and eastern United States for the winters 1966–67 through 1979–80. Extensive snow cover is associated with negative temperature anomalies across most of the continental United States. The strongest relationship occurs along the eastern flank of the Rocky Mountains from the Canadian border to the central Great Plains and reflects the southward movement of cold arctic air masses toward the Gulf of Mexico. An anomalous trough over the western part of North America is responsible for extensive snow cover in the winter. The surface storm track is displaced southward during winters with heavy snow cover, with cyclones occurring more frequently in the southern Plains and southeastern United States. Moist Gulf of Mexico air advected northward by the southerly flow aloft is an important prerequisite condition for the occurrence of extensive snow cover in the eastern United States during the first half of winter.     

Observed climatic changes in Shanghai during 1873-2002

Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in January and July and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are analyzed with the help of cumulative anomalies, Mann-Kendall analysis and wavelet analysis. The research results indicate that January precipitation presents an increasing trend after 1990, wavelet analysis result suggests that this increasing trend will continue in the near future. The changes of July precipitation present different features. During 1900-1960, July precipitation is in a rising trend, but is in a declining trend after 1960. Wavelet analysis shows that this declining trend will go on in the near future. Temperature variations in Shanghai are in fluctuations with 2 to 3 temperature rising periods. Mann-Kendall analysis indicates that temperature variations have the obvious abrupt change time when compared with precipitation changes in Shanghai during the past 100 years. The abrupt change time of January temperature lies in 1985, and that of July temperature lies in 1931-1933 and annual mean temperature has the abrupt change time in 1923-1930. Except July precipitation, the precipitation in January, temperature in January, July and annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation are also in a rising trend in the near future. The research results in this paper may be meaningful for future further climatic changes of Shanghai and social mitigation of climatic disasters in the future.     

上海市100余年来气候变化(1873-2002)

G lobalw arm ing and its possible influences on hum an society have received increasing concernsfrom academ ic circles (Y ao et al.,1996; Chen, 1987; Zhang et al.,2004; Zhang et al.,2000).Som e scholars paid m uch m ore attention to clim atic changes duri…     

极点对称模态分解下陕西气候变化特征及影响因素

全球变暖背景下,受人类活动和气候系统波动共同影响,气候要素响应具有非线性、非平稳特征,如何识别气候变化多时间尺度信息,是当前研究的热点话题.基于1970—2017年气温和降水逐日数据,辅以滑动平均、趋势分析和极点对称模态分解(ESMD)等方法,对陕西3大地理单元气候时空特征进行分析,进而探讨不同海区厄尔尼诺指数与气温、...     

Precipitation and Temperature Estimation Error at Alpine Treeline Ecotones Using the Mountain Climate Simulator Model (MT-CLIM)

In order to improve modeling of alpine treeline responses to climate change, estimations of snowfall at treeline sites are needed. The MT-CLIM climate model was evaluated for this purpose by extrapolating precipitation and temperature from standard weather stations at lower elevations to 30 alpine SNOTEL study sites across the western United States. Quantification of the topography between the base stations and the SNOTEL sites was used in inverse distance weighting and compared to straight-line weighting. The predicted temperature and precipitation under different weighting methods were compared to observed data over three months during the winter of 2006-2007. The errors were mapped and their spatial pattern analyzed. Error patterns indicate strong gradients, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, that are suggestive of areas where additional characteristics of atmosphere-land interactions and boundary layer climatology need to be considered in modeling applications.     

西太平洋副热带高压的年代际变化 及其气候影响

西北太平洋副热带高压是影响我国夏季气候的一个非常重要的环流系统，本文主要分析了其年代际尺度的变化。发现在１９７９／１９８０年前后，其强度和范围发生了一次明显的年代际尺度的变化。１９８０年代以来，副高明显偏强，范围向西向南显著扩展。副高的年代际变化也对我国东部地区的气候产生了显著的影响。主要表现在近２０多年来长江中下游地区夏季降水显著增加，华南地区夏季气温显著偏高，以及西太平洋２０°Ｎ以南台风活动相对偏弱而２０°Ｎ以北洋面台风活动相对增强。副高的年代际变化与冬、春季赤道太平洋海表温度及同期热带印度洋海温有密切联系。     

Interdecadal change in Western Pacific Subtropical High and climatic effects

Western North Pacific Subtropical High is a very important atmospheric circulation system influencing the summer climate over eastern China. Its interdecadal change is analyzed in this study. There is a significant decadal shift in about 1979/1980. Since 1980, the Western North Pacific Subtropical High has enlarged, intensified, and shifted southwestward. This change gives rise to an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the South China Sea to western Pacific and thus causes wet anomalies over the Yangtze River valley. During the summers of 1980–1999, the precipitation is 63.9 mm above normal, while during 1958–1979 it is 27.3 mm below normal. The difference is significant at the 99% confidence level as at-test shown. The southwestward expanding of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High also leads to a significant warming in southern China, during 1980–1999 the summer mean temperature is 0.37°C warmer than that of the period 1958–1979. The strong warming is primarily due to the clearer skies associated with the stronger downward air motion as the Western North Pacific Subtropical High expanding to the west and controlling southern China. It is also found that the relative percentage of tropical cyclones in the regions south of 20°N is decreasing since the 1980s, but in the regions north of 20°N that is increasing at the same time. The Western North Pacific Subtropical High responds significantly to sea surface temperature of the tropical eastern Pacific with a lag of one-two seasons and simultaneously to sea surface temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean. The changes in the sea surface temperatures are mainly responsible for the interdecadal variability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High.     

西北地区近50a降水变化及水汽输送特征

用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中国西北地区145个站的降水资料,研究了西北地区降水与亚洲季风区水汽输送特征的关系。主要结论为:①西北地区降水具有明显的区域性特征,在20世纪80年代以后,西北地区东部降水明显减少,干旱化趋势严重;在西北地区西部,降水增加,气候逐渐向暖湿型转变;②西北地区东部的水汽在夏季主要来自孟加拉湾、南海和西太平洋;西北地区西部除了受西风带的影响外,来自北方西伯利亚的水汽输送在夏季也有一定的作用;③西北地区东部的南边界和西边界是主要的水汽输入,西北地区西部的西边界是主要的水汽输入。在降水偏多年,其水汽输入在7月达到峰值,且具有明显的年变化特征;④西北地区东部的南边界和西边界水汽输入减少趋势明显,使得水汽总收支逐渐减少。西北地区西部西边界的水汽输入自80年代中期以来有增加的趋势,而北边界的输出在减少,水汽总收支有增加的趋势。     

Downscaling climate-model output in mountainous terrain using local topographic lapse rates for hydrologic modeling of climate-change impacts

One of the challenges in using general circulation model (GCM) output is the need to downscale beyond the model’s coarse spatial grid for use in hydrologic modeling of climate-change impacts. In mountainous terrain, using elevation as a primary control on temperature and precipitation at the local scale provides the potential for topographic variables to be used to adjust climate-model output. Here, local topographic lapse rates (LTLR) were estimated from gridded climate data for the Pacific Northwest of the United States and used to downscale GCM output. Skill scores were calculated for the LTLR-downscaled climate-model output relative to an existing set of model output downscaled using the established statistical downscaling technique of localized constructed analogs (LOCA). The results indicate that the LTLR method performs well in the mountainous study region relative to the LOCA method. LTLR downscaling offers a promising method for downscaling climate-model output in regions in which elevation strongly controls climate, particularly for studying impacts of future climate change on water resources.     

新疆地表水资源对气候变化的响应初探

计算新疆三大区域地表水资源与气候的相关性,建立两者间的回归方程,进而探讨新疆地表水资源对气候变化的响应,得到以下几点主要结论:①新疆地表水资源对气候变化的响应具有明显的地域特点:北疆以对水文年降水的正响应为主;南疆以对5~9月温度的正响应为主,以对高山区前年的水文年降水的正响应为辅;东疆对水文年降水的正响应及5~9月温度的负响应并重,对降水的响应更重要些。②北疆:当北疆8站水文年平均降水偏多(或偏少)10%时,北疆地表水资源会偏多或偏少7.2%。③东疆:当沁城5~9月平均温度为多年平均值时,巴音布鲁克水文年降水变化±10%,东疆地表水资源会出现±5.4%的变化;当巴音布鲁克水文年降水为多年平均值时,沁城5~9月平均温度偏高(或偏低)1℃,东疆地表水资源会减少(或增多)8.3%。④南疆:当南疆4站5~9月平均温度为多年平均值时,塔什库尔干前年的水文年降水变化±10%,南疆地表水资源会出现±1.3%的变化;当塔什库尔干前年的水文年降水为多年平均值时,南疆4站5~9月平均温度偏高(或偏低)1℃,南疆地表水资源会增多(或减少)11.7%。     

SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF MIDTROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIMATE IN THE UNITED STATES DURING ENSO WINTERS

Numerous studies have documented that the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern is the dominant extratropical response to ENSO forcing affecting the circulation over North America. However, the PNA is not the sole pattern that occurs during ENSO events. This study identifies the dominant synoptic circulation patterns and associated temperature and precipitation departures that occur during ENSO winters. Using standardized departures of 500 mbar heights over North America and the North Pacific Ocean, a subjective classification of the anomaly maps for winter months identified as warm ENSO events identifies three basic categories of 500 mbar standardized anomaly patterns: Variations of the PNA pattern, the reverse PNA pattern, and patterns with no PNA signature. Composite standardized anomaly maps of the synoptic categories of 500 mbar heights as well as composites of standardized temperature and precipitation departures for the contiguous United States were constructed. Three variations of the PNA, accounting for nearly half of the ENSO winters, are presented, identifying various configurations of the 500 mbar anomaly field and their effect on precipitation and temperature distribution. Similar composites are presented for reverse PNA and non-PNA winters. [Key words: climatology, climate change, El Nińo/Southern Oscillation, troposphere.]     

INFLUENCE OF ENSO ON MAXIMUM,MINIMUM, AND MEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, in both its warm and cold states, has a pronounced influence on mean monthly temperature and precipitation in Southeast United States, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coast. This paper examines the influence of ENSO warm and cold events on the average monthly maximum and minimum as well as mean temperatures at 88 stations across the Southeast during 1931–1994. Composite time series for the 24-month period from July prior to a warm- or cold-event year (year -1) to June following a warm- or cold-event year (year +1) are examined. In the months with the largest mean temperature departures, January and February of years +0 and +1, maximum and minimum temperature departures are of the same sign as the mean temperature departure. However, in much of the region south of Virginia, the maximum and minimum temperature departures are of opposite sign during the autumn of year +0 and spring of year +1. The role of cloud cover is examined in relation to the temperature response to ENSO. A decreased diurnal temperature range during the autumn of year +0 to the spring of year +1 occurred during warm events and is believed to be associated with increased cloud cover caused by an enhanced subtropical jet stream. [Key words: ENSO, temperature, cloud cover, Southeast United States.]     

新疆叶尔羌河流域温度与降水序列的小波分析

利用1961—2006年叶尔羌河流域7个气象站点的气温和降水系列资料,采用Morlet小波函数,分析了不同时间尺度下气温和降水序列变化的周期和突变点,确定了各序列中存在的主周期。结果表明：该流域暖湿化趋势比较明显,气温和降水的变化趋势与西北地区和新疆区的气候变化基本一致;小尺度的变化嵌套在较大尺度的复杂背景之中,不同时间尺度下突变的年份有所差异。     

Trends in Interdiurnal Temperature Variation for the Central United States, 1945–1985

Temporal variation in the absolute value of interdiurnal variability (AIDV) of January maximum temperatures is examined for the period 1945–1985 in the central United States (90°–105°W). AIDV indicates the magnitude of day-to-day changes in the maximum temperature. Five-year running-mean AIDV values decreased significantly throughout the period. This trend was apparent for the region overall and for the 10 of the 20 study sites analyzed individually. Temporal variation in AIDV values was significantly related to mid-tropospheric flow patterns over the central United States. Meridional circulation was associated with smaller AIDV values in all sites except those in the northwestern and southeastern corners of the study area, whereas zonal flow was linked to larger interdiurnal temperature change. The analysis of selected individual years indicated that mid-tropospheric circulation patterns were more persistent with meridional flow, and surface cyclones and their associated surface fronts tracked through the study area less frequently than in years with zonal flow. Analysis at a daily temporal resolution revealed an added dimension of trends in temperature variability beyond those apparent with a coarser monthly resolution. These results emphasize the importance of finer temporal resolution in the analysis of both past and projected climate change; regionally summarized monthly temperature values mask important variation in temperature trends apparent at shorter temporal and more local spatial scales.     

新疆水文水资源变化及对区域气候变化的响应

基于全疆8条代表性河流近50年的地表径流、气温和降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检测法,对各条河流地表径流、年均气温和年降水进行了长期趋势检验和突变滗分析,同时对径流与气温、降水之间的变化关系以及水文极端事件洪水的发生频次和洪峰流量进行了分析.结果表明,20世纪80年代中期以来伞疆各地气候一致表现为气温升高和降水增多,其中北疆地区变化最为显著,南疆其次,东疆最小.受气温、降水变化影响,河流径流发生年际和年内分布变化.大部分河流自20世纪90年代初水量显著增多,有春汛提前、夏汛推后和洪峰流量增大的现象,其变化特征与河流补给类型密切相关.全疆洪水发生频次增多、洪峰流最增大.气候变暖已对区域水文循环产生重要影响.     

利用树木年轮重建阿勒泰地区1794-2012年降水量

利用阿勒泰地区3个采样点的西伯利亚云杉（Picea obovata）树轮样本,建立了区域树轮宽度标准化年表。单相关普查发现,阿勒泰地区区域树轮宽度标准化年表与该区域5个气象站上年7月至当年6月降水量相关显著（R=0.714,P<0.00001）。用区域树轮宽度标准化年表可较好地重建该区域上年7月至当年6月的降水量,解释方差达51.0%,验证表明降水重建序列是可信的。重建序列经历了4个偏湿期和4个偏干期。存在2.2～2.5 a的显著周期（P<0.05）及146、2.8、2.1、2.0 a的较显著周期。在1889年发生从少到多的突变。空间相关分析表明重建结果对阿勒泰地区降水具有较好的代表性。重建结果与阿尔泰山、天山中部地区、吉尔吉斯斯坦东部天山北坡的降水变化趋势和干湿阶段具有较好的一致性,与PDSI变化趋势也有较好的一致性。     

西北地区春季沙尘暴气候分析及预测方法研究

利用甘肃、宁夏1955-2002年的气象实测资料, 北半球500hPa月高度场, 月平均太平洋海表温度场资料, 将沙尘暴发生的变化趋势看作每年春季的一个气候现象, 分析其发生的气候变化趋势、年代际变化以及与大气环流、海温的相关关系, 得出沙尘暴气候趋势预测的着眼点, 建立沙尘暴短期气候预测概念模型。此模型对沙尘暴发生变化趋势的预测具有一定的实用价值。