基于MODIS数据的华北地区遥感干旱监测研究

选择4种遥感干旱监测模型,与土壤相对湿度（RSM）和自校准帕默尔干旱指数（sc-PDSI）进行相关性分析,并探讨了研究区生长季干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明：作物缺水指数（CWSI）和植被供水指数（VSWI）更适合监测华北地区的土壤水分,在草原区和农区CWSI干旱监测较好,在森林区和荒漠区VSWI干旱监测效果较好;研究区干旱化趋势有所减缓,且2007—2011年为干旱到湿润的转折区间;干旱空间分布呈北部大于南部、西部大于东部的变化趋势,阿拉善高原的干旱最严重,而大兴安岭山脉基本无干旱发生;干旱整体上向好的趋势发展,尤其是鄂尔多斯南部、山西省、燕山山脉和华北地区-东北地区交界处的农区,且易旱区重心有向西移动的趋势,该成果可以为区域农业干旱监测提供一定的参考。     

新疆气候“湿干转折”的信号和影响探讨

新疆是对全球变化响应最敏感地区之一,分析全球变暖背景下新疆干湿气候变化及其影响,对应对和适应未来气候变化带来的影响具有重要意义。基于气象水文观测资料,对新疆区域干湿气候变化及其影响评估进行了探讨。结果表明：① 20世纪80年代中后期以来新疆气温升高,降水量增加,呈“暖湿化”特征;但1997年之后,干旱变化趋势、干旱频率、干旱发生月份等均有明显增加,导致70%以上的区域变干,新疆气候出现了从“暖湿化”向“暖干化”转折的强烈信号,即发生了“湿干转折”;② 新疆气候转折对区域生态和水资源造成明显的影响,归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI）经历了先增后减的变化过程,1982—1997年植被趋于“变绿”,但1997年之后植被长势迟滞,土壤水分明显下降,生态逆转,生态负效应凸显;③ 新疆河流径流变化出现明显的区域差异,对干湿气候转折响应复杂,受冰雪融水对径流补给比例的影响,发源于天山的河流径流对区域干湿变化有正响应,但发源于昆仑山的河流径流响应不明显。研究结果表明气候“湿干转折”和极端气候事件加剧背景下新疆干旱化急剧增加,水循环系统和生态系统不稳定性加剧,相关成果可为区域干旱灾害防灾减灾和风险管理提供有价值的决策参考。     

基于Copula的区域水文干旱频率分析

以径流量为水文干旱指标,通过径流量距平百分率和径流量累积频率两种方法识别水文干旱特征变量,并以适线法确定单个干旱特征变量的分布曲线,在此基础上利用Archimedean Copula函数构建了干旱历时与干旱烈度间的联合分布,并计算干旱重现期。应用研究结果表明:用Copula函数,得以上两种识别法提取的干旱历时和干旱烈度的联合概率分布,其重现期计算结果与区域实际受旱状况相符,其中径流量距平百分率法相对更优、更直观;适线法避免了基于样本数据估计分布函数参数的不合理性,使基于Copula函数的频率分析结果更可靠。     

金沙江干热河谷不同植被坡面土壤水分时空分布特征

于2016年7~12月和2017年4月的旱、雨季期间,以金沙江干热河谷苴那小流域内的银合欢（Leucaena Benth）林地、车桑子（Dodonaea angustifolia）灌丛地和扭黄茅（Heteropogon cantortus）草地为研究对象,通过网格法和土钻法采集并测定了（0~100 cm）土层的土壤含水量,应用经典统计法和地统计学方法分析该区域不同林草植被下坡面土壤水分的动态变化特征。结果表明：（1）研究区土壤含水量总体较低,雨季显著大于旱季,旱、雨季均表现为灌丛地>草地>林地,呈中度至强度变异（0.07~0.28之间）。（2）不同林草植被下旱、雨季土壤水分具有相似的空间自相关性,自相关系数均由正向负转变,但由正向负转变的滞后距离有所不同,且雨季大于旱季,呈中等或强等空间自相关性。（3）不同林草植被下的土壤水分空间结构不同,林地、灌丛地和草地旱雨季最佳拟合模型均为球状模型;相同林草植被下各土层旱、雨季土壤水分的空间分布特征相似,但旱季的分布格局差异更显著,不同林草植被下深层土壤水分分布比表层土壤水分的分布更为复杂,土壤水分呈明显的斑块或条带状分布,含水量高值区和低值区位置不固定。总之不同林草植被类型会改变局部地段土壤水分空间分布,降雨会加强这种差异的趋势,但土壤水分仍具一定空间连续性。     

基于SCS-CN模型的半干旱黄土高原区秸秆炭覆盖集雨垄径流预测

垄沟集雨种植是缓解我国半干旱黄土高原区干旱、水土流失和土壤侵蚀的主要雨养农业技术.小流域水文模拟通常采用径流曲线数(Soil conservation service curve number,SCS-CN)模型.在标准SCS-CN模型中,由于径流曲线数CN值取值未考虑土壤水分动态变化,导致径流预测产生不合理的突变.以...     

西宁盆地黄土区不同草本植物和坡形条件下坡面产流产沙特征

为进一步研究不同草本植物和边坡坡面形态对坡面产流产沙的影响,以西宁盆地毛鸡湾流域长岭绿化区作为试验区,设计了直形和阶梯形2种坡形,选取3种优势草本老芒麦(Elymus sibiricus Linn.)、垂穗披碱草(Elymus nutans Griseb.)和细茎冰草(Agropyron trachycaulum Linn.Gaertn.)作为试验供试种,通过人工模拟降雨试验,探讨了种植不同草本和坡形条件下,边坡坡面的产流、产沙和入渗特征。结果表明,在直形边坡中,裸坡坡面的产流时间小于种植草本植物坡面,且垂穗披碱草坡面和老芒麦坡面的形成产流时间相对较长,为4 min。与直形边坡相比,垂穗披碱草阶梯形坡面产流时间相对最长,为8 min;在直形边坡中,垂穗披碱草坡面和老芒麦坡面累积径流量、累积产沙量和径流系数相对最小,分别为51.42 L/min、160 g、14.98%,51.25 L/min、210 g、14.93%,细茎冰草坡面的累积径流量、累积产沙量和径流系数分别为96.97 L/min, 700 g, 28.25%;垂穗披碱草坡面和老芒麦坡面稳定入渗速率相对最大,其值为0.38～...     

Influence of canopy and topographic position on soil moisture response to rainfall in a hilly catchment of Three Gorges Reservoir Area,China

Rainfall provides essential water resource for vegetation growth and acts as driving force for hydrologic process, bedrock weathering and nutrient cycle in the steep hilly catchment. But the effects of rainfall features, vegetation types, topography, and also their interactions on soil water movement and soil moisture dynamics are inadequately quantified. During the coupled wet and dry periods of the year 2018 to 2019, time-series soil moisture was monitored with 5-min interval resolution in a hilly catchment of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China. Three hillslopes covered with evergreen forest(EG), secondary deciduous forest mixed with shrubs(SDFS) and deforested pasture(DP) were selected, and two monitoring sites with five detected depths were established at upslope and downslope position, respectively. Several parameters expressing soil moisture response to rainfall event were evaluated, including wetting depth, cumulative rainfall amount and lag time before initial response, maximum increase of soil water storage, and transform ratio of rainwater to soil water. The results indicated that rainfall amount is the dominant rainfall variable controlling soil moisture response to rainfall event. No soil moisture response occurred when rainfall amounts was 8 mm, and all the deepest monitoring sensors detected soil moisture increase when total rainfall amounts was 30 mm. In the wet period, the cumulative rainfall amount to trigger surface soil moisture response in EG-up site was significantly higher than in other five sites. However, no significant difference in cumulative rainfall amount to trigger soil moisture response was observed among all study sites in dry period. Vegetation canopy interception reduced the transform ratio of rainwater to soil water, with a higher reduction in vegetation growth period than in other period. Also, interception of vegetation canopy resulted in a largeraccumulated rainfall amount and a longer lag time for initiating soil moisture response to rainfall. Generally, average cumulative rainfall amount for initiating soil moisture response during dry period of all sites(3.5–5.6 mm) were less than during wet period(5.7–19.7 mm). Forests captured more infiltration water compared with deforested pasture, showing the larger increments of both soil water storage for the whole soil profile and volumetric soil water content at 10 cm depth on two forest slopes. Topography dominated soil subsurface flow, proven by the evidences that less rainfall amount and less time was needed to trigger soil moisture response and also larger accumulated soil water storage increment in downslope site than in corresponding upslope site during heavy rainfall events.     

基于电磁感应数据的膜下滴灌土壤水分动态变化研究

快速、无损监测农田土壤水分含量,是智慧农业的重要研究内容.以新疆南疆阿拉尔国家农业科技园区膜下滴灌棉田为研究对象,运用EM38-MK2大地电导率仪快速、高效的获取了4组不同时期的棉田土壤表观电导率数据,并同步采集表层土壤(0～20 cm)样品,通过构建表观电导率数据与室内测定含水量数据间的反演模型获取了测点的含水量数据...     

高密度聚乙烯(HDPE)蜂巢式沙障对土壤水分的影响

先以机械沙障固沙、再进行生物固沙,是常见的治沙模式。近年来传统材料沙障与新型材料沙障的固沙效果差异一直引人关注。用中子水分仪分别测定流沙、高密度聚乙烯（HDPE）蜂巢式沙障和半隐蔽草方格沙障内的土壤含水量,通过对比流沙和两种机械沙障铺设下的土壤含水量、土壤蓄水量对降雨的响应关系以及在植物不同生长时期下的不同土层土壤含水量变化,评价其固沙效果。结果表明：（1）两种机械沙障对土壤水分都有较好的蓄积效果,且HDPE蜂巢式沙障蓄水量高于草方格沙障（P < 0.001）;（2）在较长的干旱时间里,草方格沙障的土壤蓄水量变化比新型HDPE蜂巢式沙障滞后;（3） HDPE蜂巢式沙障和草方格沙障都有较好的保水效果,但HDPE蜂巢式沙障因高度持久的优势,保水效果更高;（4） HDPE蜂巢式沙障60~110 cm土层的土壤含水量明显高于草方格沙障土壤含水量且固沙时间越长效果越明显,从铺设中期开始HDPE蜂巢式沙障60~110 cm土层土壤含水量为7%的情况连续出现,有时部分土层会出现土壤含水量在8%以上的情况;（5） HDPE蜂巢式沙障对植物个体生长的间接作用比草方格沙障大。     

CLIMATOLOGY OF PRECIPITATION DROUGHTS IN ILLINOIS BASED ON WATER SUPPLY PROBLEMS

Drought begins with a reduction in precipitation, but different kinds of precipitation deficiency episodes (duration, intensity, and areal extent) create varying problems for drought-sensitive activities; an agricultural droughttypically is not a water supply drought. Shared characteristics of precipitation deficiency events and related surface water supply problems in Illinois were used to define climatological characteristics of precipitation deficiency droughts that cause problems for water supply systems. The temporal and spatial characteristics of these water supply precipitation droughts were assessed revealing that droughts typically: (a) begin in warm season months; (b) become more widespread when more severe and/or of shorter duration (although all droughts could be expected to cover at least 75%-85% of the state); (c) are more severe and frequent in central Illinois; and (d) end with much above normal precipitation in the initial post-drought months, but tend to recess to slightly drier than normal conditions (but not drought levels).     

土壤墒情遥感反演与旱情诊断

土壤墒情与植被生长状况和地表温度之间存在密切联系?贑OST模型算法和单窗算法,开展了TM/ETM+多光谱数据的地表反射率、地表温度(LST)和土壤调整植被指数反演(MSAVI),分析了地表温度和植被指数的线性关系,提出了土壤墒情几何特征指数和旱情诊断函数,结合土壤含水量实测数据,建立了横山县土壤墒情遥感反演模型。实证结果表明,基于TM/ETM+数据反演的长度指数可进行旱情诊断;对土壤含水量的反演模型进行T检验,差异不显著,而基于地面温度的土壤墒情反演模型优于土壤调整植被指数反演模型。     

Recent signal and impact of wet-to-dry climatic shift in Xinjiang,China

The Xinjiang region of China is among the most sensitive regions to global warming.Based on the meteorological and hydrological observation data,the regional wet-to-dry cli-mate regime shifts in Xinjiang were analyzed and the impacts of climatic shift on the eco-hydrological environment of Xinjiang were assessed in this study.The results showed that temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have increased since the mid-1980s,showing a warming-wetting trend.However,drought frequency and severity significantly increased after 1997.The climate of Xinjiang experienced an obvious shift from a warm-wet to a warm-dry regime in 1997.Since the beginning of the 21st century,extreme temperatures and the number of high temperature days have significantly increased,the start date of high temper-ature has advanced,and the end date of high temperature has delayed in Xinjiang.In addition,the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation have significantly increased.Conse-quently,regional ecology and water resources have been impacted by climatic shift and ex-treme climate in Xinjiang.In response,satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index showed that,since the 1980s,most regions of Xinjiang experienced a greening trend and vegetation browning after 1997.The soil moisture in Xinjiang has significantly decreased since the late 1990s,resulting in adverse ecological effects.Moreover,the response of river runoff to climatic shift is complex and controlled by the proportion of snowmelt to the runoff.Runoff originating from the Tianshan Mountains showed a positive response to the regional wet-to-dry shift,whereas that originating from the Kunlun Mountains showed no obvious re-sponse.Both climatic shift and increased climate extremes in Xinjiang have led to intensifi-cation of drought and aggravation of instability of water circulation systems and ecosystem.This study provides a scientific basis to meet the challenges of water resource utilization and ecological risk management in the Xinjiang region of China.     

全球变暖对区域水资源影响的计算分析：以海南岛万泉河为例

自1985年世界气象组织(WMO)在奥地利召开全球气候增暖的专门会议之后,全球气候变暖对水资源及陆地生态系统的影响成为非常活跃的研究领域。本文利用水量平衡模型,采取假定气候方案方法,分析了万泉河流域水资源状况对全球增暖的响应。结果表明:温度升高将明显导致区域径流量减少、年径流系列的不稳定性增强、土壤蓄水降低,同时径流年内分配也发生变化。为未来全球变暖状况下,区域水资源管理提供依据。     

地表径流对荒漠灌丛生境土壤水分空间特征的影响

土壤水分是干旱区多尺度生态水文过程的关键影响因素和驱动因子,其时空格局是生态、水文、气象、地形等自然过程研究的重要参数。笔者研究了降水径流事件后3种不同灌丛个体尺度土壤水分空间异质性特征,结果表明,珍珠灌丛个体尺度土壤水分空间分布特征表现为灌丛边缘>灌丛内部>灌丛间裸地,驼绒藜灌丛表现为灌丛内部>灌丛边缘>灌丛间裸地,而狭叶锦鸡儿灌丛不同微生境土壤水分差异不显著。珍珠和驼绒藜灌丛同一微生境土壤水分存在坡位梯度,珍珠灌丛3个微生境土壤水分均表现为上坡位大于下坡位,而驼绒藜灌丛边缘表现为上坡位小于下坡位,其他两个微生境无明显规律;狭叶锦鸡儿灌丛土壤水分无明显的坡位梯度。3种灌丛不同微生境土壤含水量随土层深度增加的变化不明显。这说明在降水径流事件中,不同斑块的反应差异引起了地表径流的形成以及随之发生的资源再分配,从而导致了景观内土壤水分的空间异质性。     

基于GAMLSS模型的水文干旱指数研究——以玛纳斯河流域为例

传统的水文干旱指数是在一致性条件下确定的,而在非一致情况下水文干旱指数的识别精度受到质疑。特别是当全球气候发生剧烈变化的时候,应用合适的干旱指数可以增加干旱预警的精确度。一般在非一致情况下,通常会认为干旱指数的概率分布参数服从时间或者其他协变量的线性或者非线性变化。因此以玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特站为例,构建以时间为协变量的GAMLSS模型,建立非一致情况的标准化径流指数SRI_ns,并对比分析,讨论其适用性。结果表明：① 肯斯瓦特站1957—2014年期间,径流量的变化趋势比降水和气温的变化趋势更为明显,径流发生明显变化主要集中在秋季和冬季,降水全年各月的变化趋势不明显,气温则在春季和夏季变化较剧烈。② 通过对比研究区1957—2014年内有历史资料记载的历史干旱事件,SRI_ns对于研究区干旱事件的识别更准确,SRI_ns识别的严重干旱和极度干旱事件的发生频率要比SRI_s高。③ 通过游程理论识别出干旱特征变量,将干旱特征变量采用均匀分布随机化处理可以提高干旱历时序列的拟合精度。干旱特征变量序列的最优分布均为对数正态分布。④ SRI_ns和SRI_s的干旱特征变量的二维联合分布的最优Copula函数均为joe函数。通过对比干旱特征变量二维联合概率和重现期,SRI_ns可以缩小风险区间,增加干旱风险预警的精度,因此更适用于该研究区的干旱预测与风险评估。     

河川枯水径流与极值形成机理研究

主要论述了河川枯水径流与极值的基本特征——枯水流量、枯水发生时间等,重点分析研究了枯水径流与极值形成的机理,即影响枯水径流极值形成机理的地带性因素——气候、植被等,以及枯水径流产生机理的非地带性因素——地质(包括水文地质)、地形地貌和人为因素。通过综合分析认为:不同地带的降水量对枯水径流产生重要的影响;土壤、植被是影响河川枯水径流不可低估的因素;地形对枯水极值有较大的影响;不同地质岩性,因透水性能等的差异,对枯水量及其变化都有不同程度的作用。     

基于条件温度植被指数（VTCI）的中国北方地区土壤水分估算

 利用中国北方13省2000-2008年的Terra-MODIS归一化植被指数（[WTBX]NDVI）和地表温度（LST）[WTBZ]数据,以及相同时间段农业气象观测站点的0~10 cm表层土壤水分资料,建立基于条件温度植被指数的表层土壤水分遥感估算模型,计算出2000-2008年北方13省各月份表层土壤水分,主要结论有：（1）空间分布上,表层土壤水分最高的是分区一和分区四,平均值均达到了0.2以上,表层土壤水分最低的是新疆沙漠地区,低于0.05,土壤水分空间分布基本呈"南高北低,东高西低"的趋势;（2）受降雨量和农作物需水的影响,年内月份之间,7、8 两月表层土壤水分最高,4、5、9、10月表层土壤水分最低;（3）年际变化上,2000-2001、2001-2002、2005-2006年北方大部分区域表层土壤水分增加,增加区域面积分别占总面积的79.2%、59.3%和71.4%,而2002-2003、2004-2005年大部分区域表层土壤水分减少,减少区域面积分别占总面积的53.9%和64.1%;（4）降水是影响土壤水分时空分布的一个重要因素。误差分析结果表明,基于条件温度植被指数的土壤水分遥感反演达到了较好的效果,能够较准确地反映北方地区干旱的分布及变化状况。     

中国东北地区地表水资源与气候变化关系的研究

利用NCEP/NCAR 1948~2000年共53年的月平均再分析资料,统计分析了东北地区不同区域和季节气温和(或)降水变化对蒸发量、地表径流量以及浅层和深层土壤含水量的影响。结果表明,东北地区地表水资源各分量与气温和降水之间有着较好的相关关系。还建立了气温和(或)降水变化对水资源各分量影响的简单统计评估模型,利用这些模型研究了东北地区地表水资源各分量对气温和(或)降水变化的响应情况,得出东北地区较小的"气候扰动"可能会导致径流量等地表水资源较大的变化和其它一些有意义的结果。     

Sediment supply and climate change: implications for basin stratigraphy

The rate of sediment supply from erosional catchment to depositional basin depends primarily upon climate, relief, catchment slope and lithology. It varies in both time and space. Spatial changes in erosion rates due to variations in lithology are illustrated by contrasting rates of drainage divide migration away from faults of known ages. Time variations in relative sediment supply are extremely complex and vary widely according to the direction and magnitude of climate change. In many parts of the Great Basin and south-western USA, glacial maximum climates were characterized by higher effective moisture and the altitudinal downward spread of woods and forests. Sparse data from alluvial fans indicate reduced sediment supply, despite the increased runoff evident from higher lake levels. The situation in Mediterranean areas is less clear, with rival climatic scenarios for vegetation ecotypes predicting contrasting runoff. In order to test these latter we run Cumulative Seasonal Erosion Potential [CSEP] experiments for present-day and a variety of full-glacial Mediterranean candidate climates. The results indicate the likelihood of enhanced sediment supply and runoff compared to the present day during full-glacial times for a cool wet winter climate and a reduction in sediment supply and runoff for a full-glacial cool dry winter climate. We then explore the consequences of such phase differences in sediment supply, and sea and lake levels for the stratigraphy of sedimentary basins. Highstands and lowstands of sea or lake may be accompanied by greater or lesser sediment and water supply, as determined by the regional climate and the direction of climatic change. Thus marine lowstands are not necessarily periods of great transfer of coarse clastic sediments to shelves and deep water basinal environments. Unsteady sediment supply has greatest implications for alluvial systems, in particular the effect that changing relative supplies of water and sediment have upon river and fan channel incision.     

黄河河龙区间河流泥沙对相关重大事件与政策的响应

利用径流-输沙量双累积曲线与单位降雨侵蚀力输沙量(输沙量负荷)的分析表明,河龙区间泥沙变化与相关重大事件与政策密切相关。“大开荒” 时期输沙量负荷平均值最大,是输沙量负荷多年平均值的1.8倍;“大跃进”、“农业学大寨”和“文革”时期的输沙量负荷均值也较大,为输沙量负荷多年平均值的1.4~1.5倍。改革开放后,输沙量负荷下降明显,输沙量负荷平均值较改革开放前减少了55.7%,特别是在1999年实施“退耕还林(草)”后,输沙量负荷平均值下降到整个时期的最小值,仅为输沙量负荷多年平均值的33.3%。