气候变化情景下青海湟水流域径流变化的HIMS模拟分析

基于国产HIMS(Hydro-Informatic Modeling System)模型,以青海湟水流域为研究区域,利用1986-2000年33个雨量站和8个气象站的逐日降水和气温数据,对其径流变化进行模拟;选取流域内6个水文站同期的实测径流数据,进行参数率定及验证。结果表明:HIMS模型日、月率定及验证结果良好,在湟水流域具有良好的适用性。在此基础之上,分析了湟水流域1961-2010年降水及气温的变化趋势,并对不同气候变化情景下的水文响应(径流量)进行模拟分析。结果显示气候变化对湟水流域径流量变化趋势影响显著,随气温升高和降水量的减少,径流量呈明显的减少趋势,反之,呈增加趋势。     

全球气候变暖情景下黑河山区流域水资源的变化

利用有关水文气象观测资料,对全球气候变暖情景下祁连山区黑河流域水资源的变化特征、成因及趋势进行了分析,并在此基础上提出了未来各种假定气候情景下黑河山区径流变化的计算模式。分析及计算结果表明:黑河山区水资源对全球气候变暖的响应十分明显,但受其特殊地理位置的影响,水资源的变化又有着显著的地域性特征。总体上,山区的气温和降水随全球增温均呈上升和增加的趋势,且气温上升的幅度大于全球平均水平,山区径流亦随降水量的增加而增加,但增幅随着气温升高而逐渐减小,除非遭遇到比较极端的气候情景,如气温升幅与降水减幅同时出现较大值的"暖-干"气候组合或气温降幅与降水增幅的同时出现较大值的"冷-湿"气候组合等。因此,可以预计,未来几十年里黑河山区水资源量虽随着降水、气温的变化而上下波动,但变化相对稳定,其幅度基本在目前出山径流量的±10%左右范围内。     

全球变暖对区域水资源影响的计算分析：以海南岛万泉河为例

自1985年世界气象组织(WMO)在奥地利召开全球气候增暖的专门会议之后,全球气候变暖对水资源及陆地生态系统的影响成为非常活跃的研究领域。本文利用水量平衡模型,采取假定气候方案方法,分析了万泉河流域水资源状况对全球增暖的响应。结果表明:温度升高将明显导致区域径流量减少、年径流系列的不稳定性增强、土壤蓄水降低,同时径流年内分配也发生变化。为未来全球变暖状况下,区域水资源管理提供依据。     

中国东北地区地表水资源与气候变化关系的研究

利用NCEP/NCAR 1948~2000年共53年的月平均再分析资料,统计分析了东北地区不同区域和季节气温和(或)降水变化对蒸发量、地表径流量以及浅层和深层土壤含水量的影响。结果表明,东北地区地表水资源各分量与气温和降水之间有着较好的相关关系。还建立了气温和(或)降水变化对水资源各分量影响的简单统计评估模型,利用这些模型研究了东北地区地表水资源各分量对气温和(或)降水变化的响应情况,得出东北地区较小的"气候扰动"可能会导致径流量等地表水资源较大的变化和其它一些有意义的结果。     

WATERSHED HETEROGENEITY AND THE RESPONSE TO 2 × CO2 CLIMATE: A CASE STUDY FROM THE UPPER DESCHUTES BASIN,OREGON

A fully allocated surface water supply in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon, intensifies concern for the watershed's response to climate change. Such concern provides the impetus for this case study of the basin under a potential doubling of atmospheric trace gas concentrations (2 × CO₂). Modeling the watershed as four sectors incorporates climate and landscape heterogeneity and defines a control climate that closely simulates adjusted gaged runoff. Monthly temperature and precipitation from a limited area model nested in a global circulation model define changes for modeling the watershed 2 × CO₂ climate. Precipitation increases are greatest in the Wickiup sector and least in the Little Deschutes sector for a 2 × CO₂ climate, but snow-water equivalent decreases substantially in all sectors. Summer water deficits are extended and magnified in all sectors and increase by 175% in the Wickiup sector. Water surplus increases range from 34% for Wickiup to 5% for Benham Falls. Average monthly runoff for the Upper Deschutes Basin increases by 7 mm or 24% in the 2 × CO₂ climate, but the greatest monthly runoff differences are for the Crescent Lake sector, where February and March runoff increase by 68% and May runoff decreases by 10%. The earlier occurrence of maximum and minimum 2 × CO₂ climate runoff of one to five months significantly alters the Upper Deschutes Basin runoff regime. [Key words: mesoscale hydroclimate model, climate change, Deschutes River Basin.]     

天山南、北坡河流出山径流对气候变化的敏感性分析——以开都河与乌鲁木齐河出山径流为例

选取开都河与乌鲁木齐河山区流域为研究区域,利用有关水文气象台站1960-2005年的观测资料,对研究区域的气温、降水与出山径流的变化特征及趋势进行了分析,并根据研究区域气候变化的特征与趋势及出山径流与山区降水、气温之间的关系,假定不同的气候情景组合,建立山区径流对气候变化的响应模型,以揭示天山南、北坡河流出山径流对气候变化的响应及其差异.结果表明,开都河与乌鲁木齐河山区径流与气温、降水量均呈正相关关系,受山区降水、气温持续增加和上升的影响,出山径流总体呈上升趋势,1990年代以后的升幅尤为显著;相对而言,乌鲁木齐河山区径流对降水变化更为敏感,而开都河出山径流对气温变化的敏感性略甚于气温.     

气候变化对不同气候区流域年径流影响的识别

气候变化对流域径流的影响显著,但不同流域径流对各气候因子敏感性不同,具有明显的空间分异性。本文以位于半湿润、湿润地区的松花江、子牙河以及西苕溪流域为例,基于Budyko 水热平衡经验模型,采用归因分析方法分离了气象要素趋势性变化对年径流和潜在蒸发变化率的贡献与差异性。结果表明:1960-2008年,在上述3个流域中,降水趋势性变化对年径流变化的贡献比潜在蒸发大。松花江和子牙河流域各气象要素趋势性变化对潜在蒸发变化率的贡献排序为:温度>风速>水汽压>日照时数,而西苕溪流域为:温度>日照时数>风速>水汽压。在气候要素共同作用下,松花江和子牙河流域平均年径流分别以0.48和1.51 mm a^-2的速率减少,而西苕溪流域年径流则以1.42 mm a^-2的速率增加。所得结果加深了气候变化对径流影响机制和程度的认识,可作为流域水资源适应性管理的科学依据。     

青海湖水量变化模拟及原因分析

为了探讨气候变化和人类活动对流域水文过程的影响,以分布式水文模型SWAT为基础,结合湖泊水量平衡模型,建立了青海湖水位(水量)模型,模拟了青海湖过去几十年水位变化过程。水文因子分析表明,20世纪80~90年代青海湖流域径流和湖泊水位变化的主要原因是气候变化。根据不同气候情景,对未来青海湖水位变化进行了预测。结果表明,未来30年径流增加的可能性比较大,青海湖水位下降速度将会减缓甚至出现上升趋势。这一结果将会缓解青海湖流域水资源日益紧张的局势,并有利于植被的恢复,减少土地沙化面积,对流域生态环境的改善和社会经济的发展将会有极大的帮助。     

塔里木河三源流区气候变化对径流量的影响

结合对近50年塔里木河源流区气象、水文资料的分析,探讨了过去半个世纪塔里木河源流区气候变化及其对河川径流的影响。研究结果显示,在过去50年里,塔里木河三源流径流流量总体呈现增加的趋势,期间有波动过程;对影响径流变化的气温、降水和蒸发等因子分析发现,降水量变化对塔里木河径流量变化影响最为显著,而温度的升高,加速了山区冰雪资源的消融,加大了冰雪融水对径流量的补给,但同时导致蒸发量增大,增加了地表淡水资源的消耗,对山区来水量的增大起到一定的削弱作用。     

土地覆盖与气候变化对黄河源区径流的影响

After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, the paper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of the observed yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulation results are satisfactory.Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature and precipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth under different scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annual runoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2℃ and precipitation increases by 20%,catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largest situation among all scenarios.     

Impact of land-cover and climate changes on runoff of the source regions of the Yellow River

After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, the paper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of the observed yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulation results are satisfactory. Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature and precipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth under different scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annual runoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2oC and precipitation increases by 20%, catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largest situation among all scenarios.     

黄河河源区变化环境下分布式水文模拟

将黄河河源区划分为38个自然子流域,利用分布式水文模型模拟径流量,采用唐乃亥水文站逐年、月实测径流资料进行验证,得到了较好的模拟效果。文章建立了5种土地覆被情景模型及24组不同气温和降水的情景组合,分别模拟不同情景下的年径流量。模拟结果表明,随着植被覆盖度的增加,流域年径流量减小,蒸发量增加。当气温降低2_oC且降水增加20%时,流域径流量增加得最大,增加39.69%。     

青藏高原近30年气候变化趋势

以1971~2000年青藏高原77个气象台站的观测数据 (最低、最高气温,日照时数,相对湿度,风速和降水量) 为基础,应用1998年FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith模型,并根据我国实际状况对其辐射项进行修正,模拟了青藏高原1971~2000年的最大可能蒸散,并由Vyshotskii模型转换为干燥度,力求说明近30年青藏高原的气候变化趋势,以及干湿状况的空间分布。应用线性回归法计算变化趋势,并用Mann-Kendall方法进行趋势检验。结果表明：青藏高原近30年气候变化的总体特征是气温呈上升趋势,降水呈增加趋势,最大可能蒸散呈降低趋势,大多数地区的干湿状况有由干向湿发展的趋势。气候因子与地表干湿状况间并不是线性关系,存在很大的不确定性。     

Sensitivity of mountain runoff to climate change for Urumqi and Kaidu rivers originating from the Tianshan Mountains

The mountain watersheds of Kaidu River and Urumqi River, which separately originate from the south and north-side of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, are selected as the study area. The characteristics and trends on variation of temperature, precipitation and runoff, and the correlativity between temperature, precipitation, and runoff were analyzed based on the past 40 years of observational data from the correlative hydrological and weather stations in the study areas. Various weather scene combinations are assumed and the response models of runoff to climate change are established in order to evaluate the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in the study areas based on the foregoing analysis. Results show that all variations of temperature, precipitation, and runoff overall present an oscillating and increasing trend since the 1960s and this increase are quite evident after 1990. There is a markedly positive correlation between mountain runoff, temperature, and precipitation while there are obvious regional differences of responding degree to precipitation and temperature between mountain runoff of Urumqi River and Kaidu River Basins. Also, mountain runoff of Urumqi River Basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than that of Kaidu River Basin, and mountain runoff of Kaidu River Basin is more sensitive to temperature change than that of Urumqi River Basin.     

塔里木河流域60 a来天然径流变化趋势分析

利用塔里木河流域近60 a的地表径流、气温和降水量资料,通过趋势分析、突变检验、年代际分析等方法分析了塔里木河流域地表径流变化的时空差异性,探讨了塔里木河流域天然径流变化对气温、降水量变化的响应。研究表明：近60 a来塔里木河流域三源流径流整体存在增加的趋势,但干流径流存在减少的趋势;塔里木河流域三源流增加强度在1993年前后从强到弱依次为阿克苏河、叶尔羌河、和田河,进入2000年后从强到弱依次为和田河、叶尔羌河、阿克苏河;塔里木河流域三源流径流强度增加主要受降水增加和由气温增加引起的融雪径流增加的双重影响。     

中国东北地区典型流域水文变化特性及其对气候变化的响应

以辽河的主要水源区太子河流域为对象,分析近50 a来流域的降水径流变化特性,采用水文模拟方法,研究了河川径流量及土壤含水量对气候变化的响应。结果表明:近50 a来实测径流量总体呈现减少趋势;20世纪80年代以来,气候因素对河川径流量的绝对影响量呈现增加趋势;降水增加比减少对河川径流量的影响明显,土壤含水量对降水减少的响应更加敏感,气候暖干化趋势将非常不利于东北地区的水资源利用和农业生产。     

A study on environmental aridity over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains under climate warming

Based on the data up to 1999 from hydroclimatological departments, this paper analyzes the climatic divide implications of the Qinling Mountains in regional response to the process of climate warming, due to which the grades of dryness/wetness (GDW) in 100 years show that the northern region has entered a drought period, while the southern is a humid period. In a course of ten years, the D-value of annual average air temperature over southern Shaanxi (the Hanjiang Valley) and the Central Shaanxi Plain (the Guanzhong Plain) has narrowed, i.e., the former with a slight change and the latter with rapid increase in temperature. Both regions were arid with the decrease in precipitation D-value, namely the plain became warmer while the south was drier. The Qinling Mountains play a pronounced role in the climatic divide. The runoff coefficient (RC) of the Weihe River decreases synchronously with that of the Hanjiang due to climate warming. The RC of Weihe dropped from 0.2 in the 1950s to less than 0.1 in the 1990s. The Weihe Valley (the Guanzhong Plain) is practically an arid area due to shortage of water. The successive 0.5, 1.0 oC temperature anomaly over China marks, perhaps, the important transition period in which the environment becomes more vulnerable than before.The study shows the obvious trend of environmental aridity, which is of help to the understanding of regional response to global climate change.     

A study on environmental aridity over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains under climate warming

1 Introduction With progressive researches on global climate change, an integrated study of various disciplines tends to be inevitable. Mr. Moore III, chairman of IGBP, holds that the key to integration is to synthesize scientific findings so as to get new ideas and to chance cognition up to a new high[1]. Micro-study, rather than macro-study focuses on regional change[2-5]. To strengthen the global perspective in the study, "to research on typical regions and to deepen the regional divide…     

黄河上游主要产流区气候变化及其对水资源的影响——以甘南高原为例

 利用黄河上游主要产流区甘南高原地面气象观测资料和水资源定位观测资料,分析气候、水资源变化特征，及其二者的关系，建立水资源气候模式。分析表明：黄河上游主要产流区甘南高原大部分区域降水量年际变化呈下降趋势，降水量变化线性拟合倾向率在-22.6～-9.6 mm/10a之间，降水量递减以秋季降水量递减为主，降水量减少突变点在1980—1990年之间，年际变化主要存在6～7 a短周期振荡和15 a的长周期振荡特征。气温年际变化趋势呈显著上升趋势，增温速度均大于全国增温速度，增温率以冬季最大，气温增高突变点在20世纪70年代。草地年干燥指数变化呈显著上升趋势，近50 a来甘南高原气候趋于暖干化。水资源呈显著下降趋势，水资源存在2～3 a、7～8 a、20～23 a的年际周期变化。水资源与降水量呈显著正相关，与干燥指数呈显著负相关，降水量减少，草地干燥指数上升，导致水资源减少。     

1973—2020年甘肃河东夏半年降水变化特征及影响因素分析

基于1973—2020年4—9月甘肃河东60个国家气象观测站的降水资料,采用经验正交函数分解、相关分析等方法,分析了不同量级降水的时空分布及变化特征,并讨论了气温、大尺度环流、地形等对夏季降水的影响。结果表明：（1） 河东西部位于季风区最末端,气温变化对降水影响相对显著。其中甘南高原及以北山区海拔高度高,输入性水汽少,气候变暖对水循环的促进使降水量趋于增多。西部其他区域输入性水汽仍占主导地位,冷空气活动减弱使降水量趋于减少。（2） 河东东部地形过渡平缓,降水受季风影响显著。1998年后Niño 3.4区（5°N~5°S、120°~170°W）海温转为负距平为主,随着季风增强及雨带北抬,降水量随之增长。（3） 河东地区降水量年际变化的主要特征是所有站点同时增大或减小,但在拉尼娜年更容易出现东、西部降水反相变化的特征,太平洋年代际振荡负相位时西部地区降水增多,东部部分站点减少,北极涛动负相位时,东南部降水增多,西部部分站点减少。甘肃河东夏半年降水变化及影响分析,不仅为复杂地形下大气环流和气候变暖对降水变化影响的差异性研究提供参考,还将丰富季风区末端降水预测依据。