近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征(英文)

Based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in the Huaihe River Basin, spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area are analyzed. Annual maximum series (AM) and peak over threshold series (POT) are selected to simulate the probability distribution of extreme precipitation. The results show that positive trend of annual maximum precipitation is detected at most of used stations, only a small number of stations are found to depict a negative trend during the past five decades, and none of the positive or negative trend is significant. The maximum precipitation event almost occurred in the flooding period during the 1960s and 1970s. By the L-moments method, the parameters of three extreme distributions, i.e., Generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Generalized Pareto distribution (GP) and Gamma distribution are estimated. From the results of goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, AM series can be better fitted by GEV model and POT series can be better fitted by GP model. By the comparison of the precipitation amounts under different return levels, it can be found that the values obtained from POT series are a little larger than the values from AM series, and they can better simulate the observed values in the Huaihe River Basin.     

Three-dimensional structure of flow at a confluence of river channels with discordant beds

This paper presents three-dimensional data of the mean and turbulent structure of flow collected at a natural confluence of rivers with discordant beds to (1) describe the three-dimensional flow field of a natural junction of channels; (2) assess the role of changes in bed morphology occurring during transport-effective events on the structure of flow at a confluence; and (3) examine how the three-dimensional structure of flow varies with changes in the ratio of momentum flux between the two confluent streams. Three-dimensional measurements of velocity were reconstructed from the measurements obtained with an array of four, two-component electromagnetic current meters. Six detailed velocity profiles were taken at five cross-sections in a wide range of flow conditions. The mean field of flow is characterised by (1) the acceleration of flow in the downstream portion of the post-confluence channel, but by lower velocities upstream in the mixing layer area; (2) a stagnation zone at the apex of the junction; (3) a zone of flow deviation, and strong fluid upwelling, close to the avalanche face and at the margin of the tributary mouth bar; and (4) reduced velocities over the depositional bar at the downstream junction corner. The position and extent of these zones vary with changes in the ratio of momentum flux. Very high intensity of turbulence (peaks up to 50%) and turbulent kinetic energy were observed in the mixing layer region. Distortion of the mixing layer, characteristic of flow where bed discordance is present between the two tributary channels, was evident from mean and turbulent flow data. This field study suggests that the effects of bed discordance on flow, sediment transport, and the resultant bed morphology must be incorporated into conceptual and numeric models of these sites of complex flow.     

基于高分辨率DEM的黄土地貌正负地形自动分割技术研究

黄土地貌正负地形自动分割是构建地表空间分布式机理-过程模型的基础。在分析黄土高原地区典型地貌坡面形态及汇流过程特征的基础上,提出了基于5m分辨率栅格DEM自动分割黄土正、负地形的技术方案。该方案首先利用坡面上下游栅格点的坡度对比识别沟沿线点,然后利用汇水模型提取沟沿线点约束的上游汇水区域,从而实现正、负地形的自动分割。在黄土塬区及丘陵沟壑区的实验结果表明,该方法的优点是提取精度高,人工干预少,在不同地貌类型区域内有很好的应用适宜性。     

山东省城市人口-城区面积的异速生长特征探讨

基于不同的城市定义标准,对山东省城市体系的城市人口和城区面积进行分析,发现只有地级市明确地服从异速生长定律,而县级市的关系则不够明朗。研究表明,山东省城市人口-城区面积异速生长的标度因子均小于1,而且定义的城区越小则标度因子越大。由此可见,山东省城市体系的城区扩展速度整体上比较合理,不过在中小城市郊区地带的土地利用比大城市郊区地带要浪费一些。山东城市人口-城区面积异速生长关系的状态不是很好,这暗示城市体系的发展存在许多不协调的因素,借助数学模型变换揭示了其中结构退化的实质所在。文章指出,只有通过自组织方式在城市之间形成一种自下而上式竞争-合作关系,才能进一步完善城市体系的时空结构。     

Selection of Optimal Thresholds for Estimation and Simulation Based on Indicator Values of Highly Skewed Distributions of Ore Data

This study strives to outline a geostatistics model for estimation and simulation of the Qolqoleh gold ore deposit located in Saqqez, NW of Iran. Considering that this gold deposit contains high-grade values, accurate evaluation of such values is of high importance, and therefore different methods based on indicator values, such as full indicator kriging (FIK) and sequential indicator simulation (SIS), have been employed to improve the accuracy of estimation and simulation of high-grade values. FIK and SIS cover the full range of grades based on several thresholds on the indicator data. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is typically used for selection of threshold values. Given the highly skewed distribution of gold grade and its intense fluctuations, the number of thresholds is increased using CDF, which in turn results in a whole lot of calculations. To reduce the volume of calculations, the number–size (N–S) fractal model has been used to select thresholds. From such a model, all optimal thresholds are chosen with respect to geology and the unnecessary thresholds are excluded from selection. Thus, a study of the selection of optimal thresholds for estimation and simulation of a gold ore resource by means of FIK and SIS, respectively, based on thresholds selected using the N–S fractal model is presented. Finally, it is proved that results of these geostatistical methods based on thresholds selection from the N–S model appear to be better-positioned to explain ore grade variability compared to thresholds selected from the CDF and threshold selection from the N–S model is more effective for reducing the volume of required calculations.     

Response of bed morphology and bed material texture to hydrological conditions at an asymmetrical stream confluence

Changes in bed morphology and sedimentology at stream confluences in relation to specific hydrological events have not been documented extensively. Moreover, few, if any, studies have investigated the effect of net hydrological conditions on channel change at a confluence over a period of many years. Repeat cross section surveys and sampling of bed material at a small, asymmetrical stream confluence reveal the short-term effects of hydrological variability on bed morphology and spatial patterns of bed material texture. Survey data over a 15-year period illustrate the long-term response of channel morphology at the confluence to net hydrological conditions. Results confirm that this confluence is a dynamic fluvial environment, involving shifts in the zone of scour and repeated deposition and erosion of a bar complex at the downstream junction corner as the discharge ratio changes in response to hydrological variability in the tributary streams. Persistent faster runoff-response times of the lateral tributary compared to the main stem have resulted in long-term net erosion of the channel bank opposite this tributary. The documented morphological and sedimentological changes are consistent with and can be explained by results of experimental studies and by past investigations at this confluence that have documented changes in patterns of mean flow structure and turbulence in response to variation in the discharge ratio of contributing streams.     

土地覆被对黄河中游流域泥沙产生的影响

本在黄河中游地区选择了近60个水测站流域，流域面积从500～2500km^2，分别代表6种不同自然地理类型。运用遥感方法和专题地图，结合野外实地调查，在流域泥沙及植被、地面物质等数据采集的基础上，利用数理统计方法，建立了流域产沙量与植被、地面物质之间的定量关系。结果表明，植被和地面物质对流域产沙量有着十分重要的影响。流域产沙量与植被之间呈现相当好的非线性负相关关系，而与地面物质呈明显的线性正相关关系。流域产沙量随植被变化存在着二个临界值，一是当流域植被覆盖度等于30％时，另一是当植被覆盖度等于70％时。这一现象以往只是在试验小区或试验流域见到，而本的研究表明，类似的现象在天然河流流域也存在。多元回归表明，在影响流域产沙量诸因素中，植被的影响是最重要的，其次是地面物质。     

Data-Driven Index Overlay and Boolean Logic Mineral Prospectivity Modeling in Greenfields Exploration

Index overlay and Boolean logic are two techniques customarily applied for knowledge-driven modeling of prospectivity for mineral deposits, whereby weights of values in evidential maps and weights of every evidence map are assigned based on expert opinion. In the Boolean logic technique for mineral prospectivity modeling (MPM), threshold evidential values for creating binary maps are defined based on expert opinion as well. This practice of assigning weights based on expert opinion involves trial-and-error and introduces bias in evaluating relative importance of both evidential values and individual evidential maps. In this paper, we propose a data-driven index overlay MPM technique whereby weights of individual evidential maps are derived from data. We also propose a data-driven Boolean logic MPM technique, whereby thresholds for creating binary maps are defined based on data. For assigning weights and defining thresholds in these proposed data-driven MPM techniques, we applied a prediction-area plot from which we can estimate the predictive ability of each evidential map with respect to known mineral occurrences, and we use that predictive ability estimate to assign weights to evidential map and to select thresholds for generating binary predictor maps. To demonstrate these procedures, we applied them to an area in the Kerman province in southeast Iran as a MPM case study for porphyry-Cu deposits.     

半干旱区沙尘天气近地层湍流通量及起沙研究

利用2005年春季朱日和气象站20 m气象塔的观测资料,结合同期的PM10质量浓度资料,分析了半干旱地区不同沙尘天气下近地层湍流通量的变化特征以及PM10质量浓度与起沙之间的关系。结果表明,动量通量在15:00左右达到极大值;感热通量在白天为正值,中午12:00左右达到峰值,而晚上变为负值,并在凌晨达到谷值;由于3月份下垫面湿度大,导致潜热通量经常全天为正值,并在16:00左右达到峰值;PM10质量浓度与摩擦速度的二次方呈正比,临界起沙风速和临界摩擦速度分别为7 m·s－1和0.7 m·s－1。     

A simplified linear feature matching method using decision tree analysis,weighted linear directional mean,and topological relationships

Linear feature matching is one of the crucial components for data conflation that sees its usefulness in updating existing data through the integration of newer data and in evaluating data accuracy. This article presents a simplified linear feature matching method to conflate historical and current road data. To measure the similarity, the shorter line median Hausdorff distance (SMHD), the absolute value of cosine similarity (aCS) of the weighted linear directional mean values, and topological relationships are adopted. The decision tree analysis is employed to derive thresholds for the SMHD and the aCS. To demonstrate the usefulness of the simple linear feature matching method, four models with incremental configurations are designed and tested: (1) Model 1: one-to-one matching based on the SMHD; (2) Model 2: matching with only the SMHD threshold; (3) Model 3: matching with the SMHD and the aCS thresholds; and (4) Model 4: matching with the SMHD, the aCS, and topological relationships. These experiments suggest that Model 2, which considers only distance, does not provide stable results, while Models 3 and 4, which consider direction and topological relationships, produce stable results with levels of accuracy around 90% and 95%, respectively. The results suggest that the proposed method is simple yet robust for linear feature matching.     

基于遥感影像的雪线高程提取方法对比分析——以天山北坡为例

利用2010-2014年6~8月MOD10A1、MOD10A2及HJ-1/CCD数据,以天山北坡为研究区,对比分析了积雪持续时间比率法及最大值合成法在雪线高程提取中的精度和适用性。结果表明:当MOD10A1以旬合成,积雪持续时间比率阈值为40%时,提取的雪线高程与"真值"最为接近;基于混淆矩阵法,以目视解译得到的HJ-1/CCD积雪面积为"真值",分析得出,积雪持续时间比率法提取积雪面积的总体精度较高,为98.59%,khat系数为0.90,最大值合成法的总体精度仅为85.29%,khat系数为0.70;基于统计学的方法,计算得出,积雪持续时间比率法提取的雪线高程与"真值"的相关系数较高,为0.77,其平均误差、正、负误差、绝对平均误差以及均方根误差相对较低;最大值合成法提取的雪线高程与"真值"的相关系数较低,仅为0.54,其平均误差、正、负误差、绝对平均误差以及均方根误差相对较高;积雪持续时间比率法提取的雪线高程结果优于最大值合成法。     

粤港澳大湾区生态系统服务价值的时空演化及其影响机制

生态系统服务是生态要素、结构、功能和产品造福于人类社会的媒介和通道。根据生态系统服务价值（ESV）及其影响机制调节人类社会对生态系统的利用强度和保护方式,对于实现人地和谐的可持续发展目标具有重要意义。本文以粤港澳大湾区作为研究对象,依托遥感数据修订ESV核算结果,更加准确地揭示2000—2015年粤港澳大湾区ESV的时空演变特征,并引入面板分位数回归深入探索生态系统服务影响因素的分段效应,增加对生态系统服务影响机制的认识。结果显示：① 2000—2015年粤港澳大湾区ESV减速下降,下降区域主要分布在粤港澳大湾区中部和珠江入海口两岸等城市快速扩张区。② 在城市交界处,土地利用变化会带来更为强烈的ESV变化。③ 在ESV水平不同的区域,影响因素具有不同的影响效果。用地完整度仅在ESV的低值区可以促进生态系统服务能力提升。气温对生态系统服务能力的正向作用随ESV的提高而增强,经济密度对生态系统服务能力的负向作用随ESV的提高而减弱,二者均会导致ESV高值区与低值区间的差距增大,形成“自然马太效应”。     

基于GIS的青藏高原人口统计数据空间化

根据2000年第5次全国人口普查数据分析,西藏、青海2省区各市县平均人口密度与海拔高度、土地利用、主要道路有较强的相关关系,河流水系对居民点分布的影响较为明显,而居民点是人口分布的重要指示因子。以GIS软件为工具,通过较为客观的方式赋予各影响因子人口分布影响权重,运用多源数据融合技术进行了人口统计数据的空间化。结果显示,通过数据融合产生的人口密度与各市县实际人口密度的相关系数大于0.80,与试验区各乡镇的实际人口密度的相关系数大于0.75。最终生成的栅格人口密度数据既与各市县统计型人口数据保持一致,又反映了各市县内部人口分布的空间变化。     

Variation of Dry Days Since Last Rain (DDSLR) as a measure of dryness along a Mediterranean – Arid transect

Dry periods between rainstorms control the soil moisture conditions, and are the antecedent conditions for various geomorphological, hydrological and ecological processes. An annual distribution of dry condition, based on the Dry Days Since Last Rain (DDSLR) approach is presented, showing the duration and timing of dry periods for various daily rainfall thresholds and probabilities.Daily rainfall data from five stations along a climatic transect in Israel, extending from the Judean Mountains, which have a Mediterranean climate, to the Dead Sea arid region were studied. The results show that DDSLR values increased with increasing aridity. At a 0.1 mm rainfall threshold, the DDSLR values were similar along this transect. However, at higher daily thresholds, differences among different locations along the transect, become more noticeable.     

Isostatic compensation on a continental scale: local versus regional mechanisms

Summary. Using the techniques of linear and quadratic programming, it can be shown that the isostatic response function for the continental United States, computed by Lewis & Dorman (1970), is incompatible with any local compensation model that involves only negative density contrasts beneath topographic loads. We interpret the need for positive densities as indicating that compensation is regional rather than local. The regional compensation model that we investigate treats the outer shell of the Earth as a thin elastic plate, floating on the surface of a liquid. The response of such a model can be inverted to yield the absolute density gradient in the plate, provided the flexural rigidity of the plate and the density contrast between mantle and topography are specified.
If only positive density gradients are allowed, such a regional model fits the United States response data provided the flexural rigidity of the plate lies between 10²¹ and 10²² N m. The fit of the model is insensitive to the mantle/ load density contrast, but certain bounds on the density structure can be established if the model is assumed correct. In particular, the maximum density increase within the plate at depths greater than 34 kin must not exceed 470 kg m⁻³; this can be regarded as an upper bound on the density contrast at the Mohorovicic discontinuity.
The permitted values of the flexural rigidity correspond to plate thicknesses in the range 5–10 km, yet deformations at depths greater than 20 km are indicated by other geophysical data. We conclude that the plate cannot be perfectly elastic; its effective elastic moduli must be much smaller than the seismically determined values. Estimates of the stress-differences produced in the earth by topographic loads, that use the elastic plate model, together with seismically determined elastic parameters, will be too large by a factor of four or more.     

The processes and characteristics of mass balance on the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 during 1958–2009

As a solid reservoir, a glacier can regulate regional water resources. The annual net mass balance directly reflects the fluctuation of the glacier and climate variability. Based on 51 years of mass balance observation data, the mass balance of Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1 experienced a nine times positive balance fluctuation and nine times negative balance fluctuation. There were 35 and 16 negative and positive balance years, respectively. From 1996/97 to 2008/09, 12 consecutive negative balance years were observed at Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1. These results demonstrate that the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is experiencing a strong negative balance, and the strongest negative balance, -931 mm w.e. (mm water equivalent), during the observation period occurred in 2008. In addition, the cumulative mass balance reached 13,709 mm w.e. in 2008. However, in 2009, the mass balance was positive at 63 mm w.e. The equilibrium-line altitude changes with the fluctuation in the mass balance, and the effective mass balance gradient is 7.4 mm/m. In this paper, the headwaters of the Urumqi River were analyzed using meteorological data from 1958 to 2009, including the average seasonal temperature and precipitation. The results showed that the main factor associated with the mass balance variation of Glacier No. 1 is the fluctuation in the summer air temperature, followed by changes in the precipitation.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地秋季陆面过程特征

利用塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地塔中2014年10月的秋季涡动通量数据,分析了塔中秋季陆面过程通量变化特征。结果表明：（1）塔中秋季10月净辐射R_n、感热通量H、潜热通量LE、地表土壤热通量G₀峰值依次为273.0、141.6、5.0、105.0 W·m^-2,平均日总量依次为2.85、2.68、0.08、-0.57 MJ·m^-2,净辐射能量分配以感热能量输送为主。（2）不同典型天气下,净辐射日总量扬沙>晴天>阴天>降水;阴天、扬沙天气H随R_n不同程度削减而减少,降水天气潜热增多导致日变化特征有别于其他天气。（3）10月能量闭合率为79.0%,不同天气能量闭合率阴天>晴天>扬沙>降水,依次为86.8%、83.4%、79.4%、71.4%。（4）地表反照率晴天呈“U”型变化,阴天和扬沙天气地表反照率趋势变缓发生波动现象,降水天气波动较大,趋势先降低后回升。（5）月平均热通量日间为正值,夜间为负值。日间能量闭合率为73.9%,夜间为50.8%,存在较高的能量不闭合。     

Response of the shortgrass steppe plant community to fire

Fire is an important driver of ecological pattern and process in grasslands worldwide, although its role in semi-arid systems is less well known. We used published studies and new experimental research to 1) provide a synthesis of existing knowledge of fire in the semi-arid grasslands of the North American Great Plains, and 2) assess the degree of similarity in semi-arid and mesic grassland responses to fire in this region. Based on published studies, burning has neutral to negative effects on aboveground productivity in semi-arid grasslands and variable effects on plant communities. To more rigorously assess fire effects, replicated experimental plots were established in ungrazed shortgrass steppe in northern Colorado and prescribed spring fire was applied in 2006 and 2007, 2006 only, or not at all. Aboveground net primary productivity decreased or remained unchanged with burning. Plant community changes included increases in perennial forbs, decreases in annual grasses and a positive response in annual forbs to the combination of fire and a wet spring in 2007. Combined, these results indicate that post-fire changes in productivity in semi-arid grasslands are neutral to negative, in contrast to positive responses in mesic grasslands, and not strongly negative as previously assumed.     

利用HY-2微波辐射计数据反演北极区域海冰密集度方法研究

HY-2是中国自主研发的海洋卫星。 本文研究了利用HY-2卫星扫描微波辐射计亮温数据反演北极海冰密集度的方法。参考NASA TEAM方法,我们对典型海区光谱梯度率和极化梯度率进行了统计分析,确定了计算海冰密集度所需的亮温特征值;利用天气滤波器有效去除了开阔海域由于大气中水蒸气、云中液态水、降雨等现象引起的海冰密集度计算错误。本文计算了2012年全年的北极海冰密集度产品并对产品精度进行了初步验证,验证结果表明：三个海冰类型已知区域的海冰密集度结果与理想值比较接近,多年冰密集度的反演精度需要进一步提高;本文结果与美国冰雪数据中心和德国不来梅大学提供的两种业务化海冰密集度产品一致。本研究为利用HY-2卫星监测极区海冰密集度变化,发布实时产品奠定了基础。