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1.
A probabilistic model of groundwater contaminant transport is presented. The model is based on coupling first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM and SORM) with a two-dimensional finite element solution of groundwater transport equations. Uncertainty in aquifer media is considered by modeling hydraulic conductivity as a spatial random field with a prescribed correlation structure. FORM and SORM provide the probability that a contaminant exceeds a target level at a well, termed the probability of failure. Sensitivity of the probability of failure to basic variabilities in grid block conductivity is also obtained, at no additional computational effort. The effect of the choice of the predetermined target level at the observation well is provided, along with its effect on the relevant sensitivity information. Considerable saving in computational time was achieved by superimposing a coarse random variables mesh on a finer numerical mesh. The presence of regions of lower conductivity on the probabilistic event is analyzed, and the regions in which conductivity most affects the results are identified.  相似文献   

2.
An investigation about distribution of Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts in natural, drinking, and recreational water in Northwestern Greece was performed. Five rivers (Aoos, Arachthos, Kalamas, Louros, and Voidomatis) and one lake (Pamvotis Ioannina Lake) in Northwestern Greece were investigated during a 10‐month period. Drinking and recreational water (swimming pools) from the area were also examined. Samples were collected from prefixed sampling stations and processed following a modification of standard methods for the microbiological examination of water, as suggested by the APHA/AWWA/WEF. Both Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts were isolated from Pamvotis Ioannina Lake (15 positive/27 examined samples). Significantly lower numbers of Cryptosporidium oocysts were detected in Arachthos River (1/5), Voidomatis River (1/5), drinking water (1/7), and pool water samples (1/9). No Giardia cysts were detected, neither in river water, nor in drinking, and pool water samples. The results clearly show that, with the exception of Pamvotis Ioannina Lake, where contamination of high level was observed, natural water sources of the investigated area have low pollution, resulting in low contamination with parasites.  相似文献   

3.
作为一种随机有限元方法,有限元可靠度方法通过有限元反应灵敏度分析将结构可靠度分析的近似解析方法与结构确定性分析的有限元方法结合起来,可以有效地处理结构反应是基本随机变量的隐式函数这一难题,因此成为大型复杂结构可靠度分析的有效工具。采用基于位移的非线性纤维梁柱单元对钢框架结构进行有限元建模,推导了单元与截面的基本方程。针对基于位移的纤维梁柱单元,采用逐级递进方式,分别推导了整体级、单元级、截面级和材料级的有限元反应灵敏度直接微分表达式。研究结果可为采用FORM或SORM等近似解析法进行钢框架结构的非线性静力有限元可靠性分析提供算法支持和编程依据。  相似文献   

4.
A coastal risk assessment system simulates the basic physical mechanisms underlying contaminant transport in Tampa Bay. This risk assessment system, comprised of a three-dimensional numerical circulation model coupled to a Lagrangian particle tracking model, simulates the transport and dispersion of a toxic dinoflagellate bloom. Instantaneous velocity output from the circulation model drives the movement of particles, each representing a fraction of a K. brevis bloom, within the model grid cells. Hindcast simulations of the spatial distribution of the K. brevis bloom are presented and compared with water sample concentrations collected during the peak of the bloom. Probability calculations, herein called transport quotients, allow for rapid analysis of bay-wide K. brevis transport showing locations most likely to be impacted by the contaminant. Maps constructed from the transport quotients provide managers with a bay-wide snapshot of areas in Tampa Bay most at risk during a hazardous bloom event.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT

When discharge measurements are not available, design of water structures relies on using frequency analysis of rainfall data and applying a rainfall–runoff model to estimate a hydrograph. The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method estimates the design hydrograph first through a rainfall–runoff transformation and next by propagating runoff to the basin outlet via the SCS unit hydrograph (UH) method. The method uses two parameters, the Curve Number (CN) and the time of concentration (Tc). However, in data-scarce areas, the calibration of CN and Tc from nearby gauged watersheds is limited and subject to high uncertainties. Therefore, the inherent uncertainty/variability of the SCS parameters may have considerable ramifications on the safety of design. In this research, a reliability approach is used to evaluate the impact of incorporating the uncertainty of CN and Tc in flood design. The sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome against the uncertainty of input parameters is calculated using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The results of FORM are compared with the conventional SCS results, taking solely the uncertainty of the rainfall event. The relative importance of the uncertainty of the SCS parameters is also estimated. It is found that the conventional approach, used by many practitioners, might grossly underestimate the risk of failure of water structures, due to neglecting the probabilistic nature of the SCS parameters and especially the Curve Number. The most predominant factors against which the SCS-CN method is highly uncertain are when the average rainfall value is low (less than 20 mm) or its coefficient of variation is not significant (less than 0.5), i.e. when the resulting rainfall at the design return period is low. A case study is presented for Egypt using rainfall data and CN values driven from satellite information, to determine the regions of acceptance of the SCS-CN method.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Efstratiadis  相似文献   

6.
将有限元反应及其灵敏度分析与结构可靠度分析的近似解析方法结合起来,可以进行具有隐式功能函数的大型复杂结构的可靠性分析。在基于位移的非线性纤维梁柱单元及其灵敏度直接微分表达式的基础上,通过力学变换、概率变换和反应灵敏度,将结构可靠度计算方法FORM和SORM与有限元方法有机地集成在一起。依据现行抗震设计规范,建立了钢框架结构典型构件承载能力和结构层间变形能力的抗震极限状态方程,利用地震作用的等效随机静力模型,采用非线性有限元静力可靠度方法,对一实际工程结构的抗震可靠度及其灵敏度进行了概率分析和评价,结果表明:尽管在大震作用下该结构的层间弹塑性变形可靠度较高,但是构件极限承载能力的可靠度指标较低,仍然存在失效的可能性。因此,仅验算"小震"作用下结构的承载能力可靠度和"大震"作用下结构的变形能力可靠度是不够的,还需要验算在"中震"和"大震"作用下结构的极限承载能力可靠度。  相似文献   

7.
将有限元反应及其灵敏度分析与结构可靠度分析的近似解析方法结合起来,可以进行具有隐式功能函数的大型复杂结构的可靠性分析。在基于位移的非线性纤维梁柱单元及其灵敏度直接微分表达式的基础上,通过力学变换、概率变换和反应灵敏度,将结构可靠度计算方法FORM和SORM与有限元方法有机地集成在一起。依据现行抗震设计规范,建立了钢框架结构典型构件承载能力和结构层间变形能力的抗震极限状态方程,利用地震作用的等效随机静力模型,采用非线性有限元静力可靠度方法,对一实际工程结构的抗震可靠度及其灵敏度进行了概率分析和评价,结果表明:尽管在大震作用下该结构的层间弹塑性变形可靠度较高,但是构件极限承载能力的可靠度指标较低,仍然存在失效的可能性。因此,仅验算“小震”作用下结构的承载能力可靠度和“大震”作用下结构的变形能力可靠度是不够的,还需要验算在“中震”和“大震”作用下结构的极限承载能力可靠度。  相似文献   

8.
Liverpool Bay is a region of freshwater influence which receives significant freshwater loading from a number of major English and Welsh rivers. Strong tidal current flow interacts with a persistent freshwater-induced horizontal density gradient to produce strain-induced periodic stratification (SIPS). Recent work (Palmer in Ocean Dyn 60:219–226, 2010; Verspecht et al. in Geophys Res Lett 37:L18602, 2010) has identified significant modification to tidal ellipses in Liverpool Bay during stratification due to an associated reduction in pycnocline eddy viscosity. Palmer (Ocean Dyn 60:219–226, 2010) identified that this modification results in asymmetry in flow in the upper and lower layers capable of permanently transporting freshwater away from the Welsh coastline via a SIPS pumping mechanism. Observational data from a new set of observations from the Irish Sea Observatory site B confirm these results; the measured residual flow is 4.0 cm s−1 to the north in the surface mixed layer and 2.4 cm s−1 to the south in the bottom mixed layer. A realistically forced 3D hydrodynamic ocean model POLCOMS succeeds in reproducing many of the characteristics of flow and vertical density structure at site B and is used to estimate the transport of water through a transect WT that runs parallel with the Welsh coast. Model results show that SIPS is the dominant steady state, occurring for 78.2% of the time whilst enduring stratification exists only 21.0% of the year and enduring mixed periods, <1%. SIPS produces a persistent offshore flow of freshened surface water throughout the year. The estimated net flux of water in the surface mixed layer is 327 km3 year 1, of which 281 km3 year−1 is attributable to SIPS periods. Whilst the freshwater component of this flux is small, the net flux of freshwater through WT during SIPS is significant, the model estimates 1.69 km3 year−1 of freshwater to be transported away from the coast attributable to SIPS periods equivalent to 23% of annual average river flow from the four catchment areas feeding Liverpool Bay. The results show SIPS pumping to be an important process in determining the fate of freshwater and associated loads entering Liverpool Bay.  相似文献   

9.
Sewage is a major contributor to pollution problems involving human pathogens in tropical coastal areas. This study investigated the occurrence of intestinal protozoan parasites (Giardia and Cryptosporidium) in tropical recreational marine waters contaminated with sewage. The potential risks of Cryptosporidium and Giardia infection from recreational water exposure were estimated from the levels of viable (oo) cysts (DIC+, DAPI+, PI−) found in near-shore swimming areas using an exponential dose response model. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was performed in order to determine the probability distribution of risks. Microbial indicators of recreational water quality (enterococci, Clostridium perfringens) and genetic markers of sewage pollution (human-specific Bacteroidales marker [HF183] and Clostridium coccoides) were simultaneously evaluated in order to estimate the extent of water quality deterioration associated with human wastes. The study revealed the potential risk of parasite infections via primary contact with tropical marine waters contaminated with sewage; higher risk estimates for Giardia than for Cryptosporidium were found. Mean risks estimated by Monte Carlo were below the U.S. EPA upper bound on recreational risk of 0.036 for cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis for both children and adults. However, 95th percentile estimates for giardiasis for children exceeded the 0.036 level. Environmental surveillance of microbial pathogens is crucial in order to control and eradicate the effects that increasing anthropogenic impacts have on marine ecosystems and human health.  相似文献   

10.
In the past, arithmetic and geometric means have both been used to characterise pathogen densities in samples used for microbial risk assessment models. The calculation of total (annual) risk is based on cumulative independent (daily) exposures and the use of an exponential dose–response model, such as that used for exposure to Giardia or Cryptosporidium. Mathematical analysis suggests that the arithmetic mean is the appropriate measure of central tendency for microbial concentration with respect to repeated samples of daily exposure in risk assessment. This is despite frequent characterisation of microbial density by the geometric mean, since the microbial distributions may be Log normal or skewed in nature. Mathematical derivation supporting the use of the arithmetic mean has been based on deterministic analysis, prior assumptions and definitions, the use of point-estimates of probability, and has not included from the outset the influence of an actual distribution for microbial densities. We address these issues by experiments using two real-world pathogen datasets, together with Monte Carlo simulation, and it is revealed that the arithmetic mean also holds in the case of a daily dose with a finite distribution in microbial density, even when the distribution is very highly-skewed, as often occurs in environmental samples. Further, for simplicity, in many risk assessment models, the daily infection risk is assumed to be the same for each day of the year and is represented by a single value, which is then used in the calculation of p Σ, which is a numerical estimate of annual risk, P Σ, and we highlight the fact that is simply a function of the geometric mean of the daily complementary risk probabilities (although it is sometimes approximated by the arithmetic mean of daily risk in the low dose case). Finally, the risk estimate is an imprecise probability with no indication of error and we investigate and clarify the distinction between risk and uncertainty assessment with respect to the predictive model used for total risk assessment.  相似文献   

11.
ABSTRACT

The groundwater contamination risk in future climates was investigated at three locations in Sweden. Solute transport penetration depths were simulated using the HYDRUS-1D model using historical data and an ensemble of climate projections including two global climate models (GCMs), three emission scenarios and one regional climate model. Most projections indicated increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration until mid-century with a further increase at end-century. Results showed both increasing and decreasing groundwater contamination risks depending on emission scenario and GCM. Generally, the groundwater contamination risk is likely to be unchanged until mid-century, but higher at the end of the century. Soil and site specific relationships between Δ(P – PET) (i.e. change in the difference between precipitation, P, and potential evapotranspiration, PET) and changes in solute transport depths were determined. Using this, changes in solute transport depths for other climate projections can be assessed.  相似文献   

12.
Coastal wetlands are characterized by strong, dynamic interactions between surface water and groundwater. This paper presents a coupled model that simulates interacting surface water and groundwater flow and solute transport processes in these wetlands. The coupled model is based on two existing (sub) models for surface water and groundwater, respectively: ELCIRC (a three‐dimensional (3‐D) finite‐volume/finite‐difference model for simulating shallow water flow and solute transport in rivers, estuaries and coastal seas) and SUTRA (a 3‐D finite‐element/finite‐difference model for simulating variably saturated, variable‐density fluid flow and solute transport in porous media). Both submodels, using compatible unstructured meshes, are coupled spatially at the common interface between the surface water and groundwater bodies. The surface water level and solute concentrations computed by the ELCIRC model are used to determine the boundary conditions of the SUTRA‐based groundwater model at the interface. In turn, the groundwater model provides water and solute fluxes as inputs for the continuity equations of surface water flow and solute transport to account for the mass exchange across the interface. Additionally, flux from the seepage face was routed instantaneously to the nearest surface water cell according to the local sediment surface slope. With an external coupling approach, these two submodels run in parallel using time steps of different sizes. The time step (Δtg) for the groundwater model is set to be larger than that (Δts) used by the surface water model for computational efficiency: Δtg = M × Δts where M is an integer greater than 1. Data exchange takes place between the two submodels through a common database at synchronized times (e.g. end of each Δtg). The coupled model was validated against two previously reported experiments on surface water and groundwater interactions in coastal lagoons. The results suggest that the model represents well the interacting surface water and groundwater flow and solute transport processes in the lagoons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model.  相似文献   

14.
沈阳市供水系统抗震功能可靠性分析   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
城市供水管网的抗震研究能够服务于供水管网的规划、设计和改造。以沈阳市供水管网系统为背景,介绍了一类求解大型供水网络节点及系统功能可靠度的方法。对沈阳市主干供水网络进行了抗震功能可靠性分析。研究结果证明,建议方法是合理评价供水管网地震后工作性能的工具,可以为大型供水管网的抗震可靠度分析及抗震设计服务提供基础。  相似文献   

15.
Three-dimensional attenuation structures are related to the subsurface heterogeneities present in the earth crust. An algorithm for estimation of three-dimensional attenuation structure in the part of Garhwal Himalaya, India has been presented by Joshi (Curr Sci 90:581–585, 2006b; Nat Hazards 43:129–146, 2007). In continuation of our earlier approach, we have presented a method in which strong motion data have been used to estimate frequency-dependent three-dimensional attenuation structure of the region. The border district of Pithoragarh in the Higher Himalaya, India, lies in the central seismic gap region of Himalaya. This region falls in the seismic zones IV and V of the seismic zoning map of India. A dense network consisting of eight accelerographs has been installed in this region. This network has recorded several local events. An algorithm based on inversion of strong motion digital data is developed in this paper to estimate attenuation structure at different frequencies using the data recorded by this network. Twenty strong motion records observed at five stations have been used to estimate the site amplification factors using inversion algorithm defined in this paper. Site effects obtained from inversion has been compared with that obtained using Nakamura (1988) and Lermo et al. (Bull Seis Soc Am 83:1574–1594, 1993) approach. The obtained site amplification term has been used for correcting spectral acceleration data at different stations. The corrected spectral acceleration data have been used as an input to the developed algorithm to avoid effect of near-site soil amplification term. The attenuation structure is estimated by dividing the entire area in several three-dimensional block of different frequency-dependent shear wave quality factor Q β (f). The input to this algorithm is the spectral acceleration of S phase of the corrected accelerogram. The outcome of the algorithm is given in terms of attenuation coefficient and source acceleration spectra. In the present study, this region has been divided into 25 rectangular blocks with thickness of 10 km and surface dimension of 12.5 × 12.1 km, respectively. Present study gives three-dimensional attenuation model of the region which can be used for both hazard estimation and simulation of strong ground motion.  相似文献   

16.
High surface water-groundwater connectivity characterizes watersheds underlain by karsts, increasing contaminant transport risks. However, karsts are highly complex, making research necessary to understand the transport of contaminants from the surface, through the aquifer, to discharge areas. In Yucatan, the lack of waste water treatment raises the risk of groundwater contamination. We monitored stable isotopes (δ18O-NO3 and δ15N-NO3), cadmium, and lead to document waste water contamination and transport during the rainy and dry seasons, using water samples collected along the Ring of Cenotes during each season. Specific conductance and pH showed no consistent seasonality, with conductance ranging from 0.5 to 55 mS/cm and pH ranging from 6.6 to 8.6 for most samples. Nitrate concentrations in the cenotes averaged 205 ± 260 μM and no seasonal pattern was observed. Cd and Pb concentrations were 0.1 to 37.9 μg/L and 0.2 to 243.2 μg/L, respectively. Nitrate stable isotope values were 2.6 to 27.2‰ for δ18O and 1.2 to 20.7‰ for δ15N. The statistical relationship between δ15N and δ18O, in dry season samples, indicated that denitrification was occurring. A scale measure for waste water recognition showed: (1) high variability among sites probably related with dry/rainy seasons and/or diverse anthropogenic activities; and (2) specific water quality variables that contribute to contamination at each site during each season. Importantly, our analyses indicate that in the area surrounding the Ring of Cenotes, waste water exhibits spatial and temporal patterns related to complex transport and dilution processes, as is the case in karsts in general.  相似文献   

17.
Cleanup standards for volatile organic compounds in thick vadose zones can be based on indirect risk (transport to ground water) when contamination is below depths of significant direct risk. At one Arizona Superfund site, a one-dimensional vadose zone transport model (VLE-ACH) was used to estimate the continued transport of VOCs from the vadose zone to ground water. VLEACH is a relatively simple and readily available model that proved useful for estimating indirect risk from VOCs in the vadose zone at this site. The estimates of total soil concentrations used as initial conditions for VLF.ACH incorporated a variety of data from the site. Soil gas concentrations were found to be more useful than soil matrix data for estimating total soil concentrations at this arid-zone site. A simple mixing cell model was used with the VLEACH-derived mass loading estimates from the vadose zone over time to estimate the resulting changes in ground water concentrations. For this site, the results of the linked VLEACH/mixing cell simulations indicate it is likely that the federal MCI. for TCE will be exceeded in underlying ground water if remedial action on I he vadose zone is not pursued.  相似文献   

18.
This work investigates the recent morphological changes at the inlet of a complex coastal system (Ria de Aveiro lagoon, Portugal). This study was carried out using bathymetric data analysis and numerical simulations obtained with the 2DH morphodynamic modelling system MORSYS2D. The present simulations considered only tidal forcing, and a sensitivity analysis was performed by tuning the formula used to compute the sediment transports. A non-uniform sediment grain size distribution for the Ria de Aveiro inlet is considered in the numerical simulations, based on surveys performed in this area. The model results are analysed to assess if they resemble the observed trends of erosion and deposition, as calculated from bathymetric data. A quantitative analysis of the differences between the bathymetric changes obtained through surveys and the numerical results over a period of 3 years considering different sediment transport formulations shows that the formulations of Ackers and White (1973) and Engelund and Hansen (1967) are the ones that best describe the morphodynamic changes driven by tides in the Ria de Aveiro inlet.  相似文献   

19.
20.
Cryptosporidium is an enteric parasitic protozoan capable of causing chronic diarrhea. One of the most common modes of transmission is through faeces‐contaminated water. This study determines the distribution of Cryptosporidium oocysts for the first time in Chennai City's drinking water supply. 199 drinking water samples were collected from ten zones of the city. In the water samples Cryptosporidium, a common pathogenic protozoan of the gastrointestinal tract, has been analyzed physico chemically as well as microbiologically for heterotrophic organisms and total coliforms (TC). The studies revealed that three zones of the city were highly contaminated with coliforms and parasitic protozoa. A statistical analysis was done to find any correlation between heterotrophic organisms, total coliforms, and oocysts. Even though a positive correlation exists between oocysts and bacteriological parameters, a regression equation shows that heterotrophic plate count (HPC) and total coliforms were only 20% responsible for the presence of oocysts. The level of Cryptosporidium oocysts isolated from the water samples may present a public health hazard although no major outbreaks have so far been reported in Chennai City. Routine surveillance of water quality throughout the city is needed to curb the pollutants.  相似文献   

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