双排钢板桩围堰的冗余度分析

将冗余度理论引入到双排钢板桩围堰的设计中,提出双排钢板桩围堰支护体系冗余度的定义与设计方法的初步框 架。以拉杆系统的冗余度分析为例,采用拆除构件法,对其冗余度进行了定量分析。结果表明,下道拉杆的冗余度参数明显低于上道拉杆,其失效后会明显降低整个围堰支护体系的刚度、强度和稳定性,会导致整个围堰的破坏坍塌,这与工程实际相吻合。以上分析验证了冗余度理论在双排钢板桩围堰工程中适用性及可行性。     

先验概率分布及似然函数模型的选择对边坡可靠度评价影响的定量评估

受工程勘察成本及试验场地限制,可获得的试验数据通常有限,基于有限的试验数据难以准确估计岩土参数统计特征和边坡可靠度。贝叶斯方法可以融合有限的场地信息降低对岩土参数不确定性的估计进而提高边坡可靠度水平。但是,目前的贝叶斯更新研究大多假定参数先验概率分布为正态、对数正态和均匀分布,似然函数为多维正态分布,这种做法的合理性有待进一步验证。总结了岩土工程贝叶斯分析常用的参数先验概率分布及似然函数模型,以一个不排水黏土边坡为例,采用自适应贝叶斯更新方法系统探讨了参数先验概率分布和似然函数对空间变异边坡参数后验概率分布推断及可靠度更新的影响。计算结果表明：参数先验概率分布对空间变异边坡参数后验概率分布推断及可靠度更新均有一定的影响,选用对数正态和极值I型分布作为先验概率分布推断的参数后验概率分布离散性较小。选用Beta分布和极值I型分布获得的边坡可靠度计算结果分别偏于保守和危险,选用对数正态分布获得的边坡可靠度计算结果居中。相比之下,似然函数的影响更加显著。与其他类型似然函数相比,由多维联合正态分布构建的似然函数可在降低对岩土参数不确定性估计的同时,获得与场地信息更为吻合的计算结果。另外,构建似然函数时不同位置处测量误差之间的自相关性对边坡后验失效概率也具有一定的影响。     

有限数据条件下边坡可靠度分析的Bootstrap方法

基于Bootstrap抽样技术提出了有限数据条件下边坡可靠度分析方法。简要介绍了传统的边坡可靠度分析方法。采用Bootstrap方法模拟了抗剪强度参数概率分布函数的统计不确定性。以无限边坡为例研究了抗剪强度分布参数和分布类型不确定性对边坡可靠度的影响规律。结果表明：基于有限数据估计的样本均值、样本标准差和AIC值具有较大的变异性,这种变异性进一步导致了抗剪强度参数概率分布函数存在明显的统计不确定性。在考虑抗剪强度参数概率分布函数的统计不确定性时,边坡可靠度指标应为具有一定置信度水平的置信区间,而不是传统可靠度分析中的固定值。边坡可靠度指标的置信区间变化范围随安全系数的增加而增大,同时考虑分布参数和分布类型不确定性计算的可靠度指标具有更大的变异性和更宽的置信区间变化范围。Bootstrap方法为有限数据条件下抗剪强度参数概率分布函数统计不确定性的模拟以及边坡可靠度的评估提供了一条有效的途径。     

海岸带特殊地质条件下双排钢板桩适用性案例分析

双排钢板桩结构是由两排钢板桩、桩间土和拉杆组成的挡土、止水复合结构,由于其较土石围堤占地面积小、施工速度快,较钢板桩整体性好,抗地震和波浪等动力稳定性好,在水利、水运、海岸工程中广泛应用。但由于钢板桩受地质条件影响较大,其使用效果和投入成本不尽相同。本文重点搜集和调查了国内外海岸带工程中使用双排钢板桩的工程案例,分别针对岩溶发育的岩性地基,高渗透性的砂性地基和深厚淤泥质软土地基对双排钢板桩的性能影响和设计约束进行分析。结合原有地质条件和设计资料,采用有限元软件补充计算分析,分析研究在各种不同类型的工程地质条件和水文条件下双排钢板桩的应用效果,总结双排钢板桩在海岸带不同工程地质条件下的适用性。发现在岩溶发育地层施工双排钢板桩需要防止打桩造成垂直度差和岩溶连通性带来的渗漏问题;在砂土地层需要防止钢板桩倾斜变形造成锁扣止水性能劣化,进而导致渗漏水甚至出现流砂;在淤泥地层施工时打入桩施工和桩身止水性能都能得到保证,但可能发生较大桩身整体变形,同时应考虑内侧坑底加固以避免踢脚稳定性破坏。本文的研究对发展海岸带生态工程地质和沿海韧性水工建筑物具有工程指导价值。     

基于BUS方法的无限长边坡可靠度更新

某一特定岩土场地的试验数据、监测资料和观测信息等通常十分有限,然而贝叶斯方法却可充分利用有限的场地信息克服试验数据样本量较小的不足。为有效估计有限样本条件下参数统计特征,提出了基于结构可靠度方法和贝叶斯更新(BUS)的边坡可靠度更新方法,通过融入直剪试验数据更新无限长边坡可靠度验证了提出方法的有效性,并系统探讨了岩土体参数先验信息如试验样本量、概率分布和似然函数模型对边坡可靠度更新的影响规律。结果表明:BUS方法能够考虑岩土体参数概率分布和似然函数模型的影响,融入有限的场地信息准确地估计参数统计特征和更新边坡可靠度,为解决有限样本条件下边坡可靠度更新问题提供了一条有效的途径。土体参数概率分布对边坡可靠度更新结果(参数后验均值、标准差以及更新的失效概率)具有重要的影响,基于常用的正态和对数正态分布的边坡可靠度更新结果偏于保守,相比之下,似然函数模型对边坡可靠度更新结果的影响相对较小。此外,岩土体参数不确定性和更新的边坡失效概率均随着试验样本量的增大而减小,但当样本量增大到一定程度时它们的变化不大。     

船坞施工中钢板桩围护技术与监测

在坞口挖土过程中，因围堰位移较大，采取在开挖处进行回填土，并采用双排钢板桩作为临时支护，内设三道支撑分层、分段开挖，同时加强对围堰及坞口支护的监测，使得整个围堰安全地度过坞口施工期。     

砂卵石地层中单、双排钢板桩围堰现场水平载荷试验研究

针对松花江砂卵石地层上的钢板桩围堰进行现场模型的水平载荷试验,介绍了模型的施工及试验方法,研究了双排钢板桩通过拉杆连接这种结构在水平载荷作用下的变形特性,同时进行了单排钢板桩水平载荷试验作为对比分析;通过测量其深层水平位移及桩顶位移,分析其桩顶位移预警值为及水平荷载的影响深度;通过测量拉杆轴力,分析水平力的传递,对类似工程设计有一定的参考作用。     

考虑桩土效应的双排桩模型及参数研究

双排桩作为一种新型的深基坑支护结构,目前尚无简单而有效的设计方法。首先,借助Winkler地基梁基本思想,在忽略桩土竖向摩擦效应及空间效应的前提下,对双排桩支护结构力学机制进行分析,建立了考虑桩土效应的双排桩平面杆系有限元模型。接着围绕双排桩平面杆系有限元模型的关键参数土压力分布及弹性抗力系数展开了研究,针对连梁拉力将使传统的坑后土体滑移面临界距离增加特征,利用滑动比例系数法获得了土压力分配规律;针对弹性抗力系数正分析取值不确定性,提出了采用位移反分析优化方法获得弹性抗力参数的取值。最后,根据杆系有限元及反分析中位移最优准则函数的求解步骤,分别编制了doublerowpile及doublerowpileparameter计算程序,并进行了相应的工程计算,工程计算结果表明,计算位移与监测位移趋势一致,计算内力符合规范要求,且能较准确获得弹性抗力系数取值。     

基于贝叶斯理论的土性参数空间变异性量化方法

岩土工程可靠度分析和设计中,合理地选取随机场参数和相关函数,并准确地描述土性参数空间变异性十分困难。基于贝叶斯理论,本文提出了一套量化砂土有效内摩擦角空间变异性的方法。该方法根据先验信息和静力触探试验锥尖阻力数据,确定砂土有效内摩擦角的随机场参数和相关函数。该方法合理地考虑了砂土有效内摩擦角与锥尖阻力间经验回归方程的不确定性。采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟(Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation,MCMCS)获取服从后验分布的随机场参数样本。利用MCMCS样本构建随机场参数的Gaussian Copula函数求解后验分布。估计备选相关函数的概率,选择概率最大的为最可能的相关函数。最后,采用美国德州农工大学国家岩土工程砂土试验场的CPT数据算例验证了文中所提方法的有效性。结果表明:文中所提方法可以正确、合理地利用间接测量的锥尖阻力数据确定砂土有效内摩擦角的随机场参数和相关函数,准确量化其空间变异性。对于美国德州农工大学国家岩土工程砂土试验场的砂土有效内摩擦角,建议选用二阶自回归函数作为其最可能的相关函数。     

水平荷载下桩的可靠性分析

由于桩及桩周土的材料性能参数的不确定性,桩的响应也是不确定的。在考虑桩的水平荷载、桩周土反力及桩的刚度等不确定因素情况下,采用一阶可靠度分析方法对水平受荷桩的最大弯矩及桩顶的最大位移进行了可靠性分析,进 而,考虑分布参数的不确定性,用点估计法预估桩的失效概率,对给定的p-y曲线进行桩的可靠性分析。研究表明,在失效概率相对较低的情况下,水平荷载下基桩的失效概率与随机变量的分布类型假定有较大关系,随机变量分布参量的不确定性只会对桩的失效概率产生较小的影响。     

Reliability analysis of soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test

A review of probabilistic and deterministic liquefaction evaluation procedures reveals that there is a need for a comprehensive approach that accounts for different sources of uncertainty in liquefaction evaluations. For the same set of input parameters, different models provide different factors of safety and/or probabilities of liquefaction. To account for the different uncertainties, including both the model and measurement uncertainties, reliability analysis is necessary. This paper presents a review and comparative study of such reliability approaches that can be used to obtain the probability of liquefaction and the corresponding factor of safety. Using a simplified deterministic Seed method, this reliability analysis has been performed. The probability of liquefaction along with the corresponding factor of safety have been determined based on a first order second moment (FOSM) method, an advanced FOSM (Hasofer–Lind) reliability method, a point estimation method (PEM) and a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. A combined method that uses both FOSM and PEM is presented and found to be simple and reliable for liquefaction analysis. Based on the FOSM reliability approach, the minimum safety factor value to be adopted for soil liquefaction analysis (depending on the variability of soil resistance, shear stress parameters and acceptable risk) has been studied and a new design safety factor based on a reliability approach is proposed.     

基于随机分析的滑坡稳定性二元评价方法

对利用随机分析方法建立安全系数与可靠性相耦合的滑坡稳定性二元评价体系进行了探索。利用随机分析方法可确定滑坡安全系数的分布形态,计算出最大可能安全系数下的滑坡破坏概率P_f,用最大可能安全系数和可靠性得出可靠安全系数来评价该滑坡的稳定性。在折减后的安全系数的极限状态中,根据典型的不同最大可能安全系数及相应的临界破坏概率,建立了二元滑坡稳定性分区,用于滑坡稳定性评价。研究实例表明:利用随机分析方法建立这种二元体系是可行的,可以更加精确和客观的对滑坡稳定性做出评价。      

参数变异性对围护结构稳定性影响分析

利用可靠度分析方法代替传统的安全系数法来分析基坑围护结构的整体稳定性,考虑岩土参数的不确定性和空间变异性,对土性参数进行空间折减可显著提高可靠度分析的精度。结合工程实例,分析了参数均值和变异系数对基坑整体稳定性可靠度指标的影响。分析表明,可靠度指标β对土体黏聚力c、内摩擦角φ、地面超载q及支护桩嵌固深度hd的均值变化的敏感性较安全系数K对上述参数的敏感性强;c、φ及hd值的变异性对β值影响较大,地面超载较大时,其变异性对β影响较为显著;采用可靠度指标β评价基坑整体稳定性较安全系数K更加合理。     

Uncertainty and Reliability Analysis Applied to Slope Stability: A Case Study From Sungun Copper Mine

Nowadays, there are many new methods for slope stability analysis; including probabilistic methods assessing geotechnical uncertainties to develop safety factors. In this paper, a reliability index analysis for the Sungun copper mine slope stability is evaluated based on three methods of uncertainties consisting Taylor series method, Rosenblueth point estimate method and Monte-Carlo simulation method. Sungun copper mine will be one of the Iran’s biggest mines with final pit’s height of 700 meters. For this study two of its main slopes were assessed, one dipping to the NE (030) and the other to the SE (140). Probability density function of cohesion and angle of friction for the slopes were developed using limit equilibrium methods. These shear strengths were then used to determine the probability density function of safety factor and reliability index using the probabilistic methods. Results of the probabilistic analysis indicate that with ascending values of the uncertainties the reliability index decreases. Furthermore, it was determined that with the Monte Carlo simulation the seed number used has little effect on the reliability index of the safety factor especially with seed numbers in excess of 1200. Variations in the overall reliability index of safety factor were observed between the two slopes and this difference is explained by the differences in complexities of the geology within the cross-section.     

基于有限元强度折减法的边坡动力稳定性可靠性分析

传统有限元强度折减法在边坡稳定性数值分析中取得了一定的成功,但由于未考虑岩土体材料参数的变异性等不确定性因素,尚不能直接应用于边坡稳定性特别是动力稳定性可靠性分析问题。为此提出了基于有限元强度折减法的地震边坡动力稳定性可靠性分析方法。将有限元极限分析法、动力分析法和可靠性分析法三者耦合,分析求解边坡在地震作用下的动力稳定性可靠性问题,并将这一过程在数值计算程序中得以实现。在计算分析过程中,克服了原方法需不断人工试算才能得到边坡安全系数而无法量化处理问题,并对边坡动力失效准则进行了适用于程序化的改进,使其计算过程完全实现自主运行。结合典型算例分析结果表明,该方法显著的特点是能较全面地反映岩土体的动力特性和边坡岩土体材料强度参数的变异性及相关性,所得结果相对更加合理且更符合工程实际。该方法既是对有限元强度折减法的应用范围的有益推广,也为边坡动力稳定性可靠性问题研究提供了一条新的有效途径。     

Characteristics of agro-meteorological disasters and their risk in Gansu Province against the background of climate change

A formal Bayesian approach that uses the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the uncertainties of natural hazards has attracted significant attention in recent years, and a fuzzy graph can be considered an estimation of the relationship that we want to know in risk systems. However, the challenge with such approaches is to sufficiently consider uncertainty without much prior knowledge and adequate measurement. This paper proposes a new adaptive Bayesian framework that is based on the conventional Bayesian scheme and the optimal information diffusion model to more precisely calculate the conditional probabilities in the fuzzy graph for recognizing relationships and estimating uncertainty in natural disasters with scant data. This methodology is applied to study the relationship between the earthquake’s magnitude and the isoseismal area with strong-motion earthquake observations. It is also compared with other techniques, including classic Bayesian regression and artificial neural networks. The results show that the new method achieves better performance than do the main existing methods with incomplete data.     

Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of human risks due to dam break floods—part 2: application to Tangjiashan landslide dam failure

The Tangjiashan landslide dam was formed during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and posed high risks to 1.2?million people downstream the dam. A human risk analysis model (HURAM) reported in the companion paper is applied to evaluate the human risk in the Tangjiashan landslide dam failure. The characteristics of this landslide dam are introduced first. The breaching parameters in two cases (i.e., the actual case and a high erodibility case) are predicted with a physically based model, and the flood routing processes in these two cases are simulated using numerical analysis. The population at risk downstream of the landslide dam is then obtained based on the results of the flood routing simulations. Subsequently, the human risks are analyzed with HURAM using Bayesian networks. Fourteen influence parameters and their interrelationships are considered in a systematic structure in the case study. A change in anyone of them may affect the other parameters and leads to loss of life. HURAM allows not only cause-to-result inference, but also result-to-cause inference by updating the Bayesian network with specific information from the study case. The uncertainties of the parameters and their relationships are studied both at the global level using multiple sources of information and at the local level by updating the prior probabilities.     

系列^14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究进展

系列^14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究已成为当前^14C年代学中一个热点,系统综述了时序已知、时序间隔已知和时序间隔近似已知系列^14C样品日历年龄校正研究的历史、原理、计算方法及其在树轮、泥炭、地层等领域上应用进展,对影响系列样品贝叶斯分析获得^14C日历年龄区间的主要因素以及未来发展方向作了归纳。大量事例研究结果表明系列样品贝叶斯分析的实质在于贝叶斯方法从统计的角度灵活地把地层信息以概率方式加入到^14C日历年龄校正过程中,获得比单个^14C年代校正精度更高的日历年龄。