Parametric interpolation method for probabilistic fatigue analysis of steel risers

Slender marine structures such as mooring lines and risers are susceptible to failures due to stress variations coming from environmental actions. Wave, wind and current are random phenomena, and consequently the most adequate methodology to estimate the fatigue damage accumulation on these structures is the probabilistic fatigue analysis. In practice, the estimation of fatigue life requires the numerical simulation of a huge number of loading cases to compute the multi-dimensional integral of the total fatigue damage.This paper presents an efficient approach to compute the long-term fatigue damage of marine structures. The proposed method needs only a few number of numerical simulations to estimate the structure fatigue life. It uses a parametric interpolation procedure to evaluate the fatigue damage for any individual short-term condition (sea state) required in the calculation of the multi-dimensional integral. In this way, the total number of short-term structural analyzes is considerably reduced.The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method is compared to the full direct integration by means of two comprehensive examples. The first studied case is an idealized theoretical model of a single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system under wave loading, and the second one is a Steel Catenary Riser (SCR) connected to a FPSO (Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading floating unit).     

A comparison of several wave spectra for the random wave diffraction by a semi-infinite breakwater

A comparison of the diffraction of multidirectional random waves using several selected wave spectrum models is presented in this paper. Six wave spectrum models, Bretschneider, Pierson–Moskowitz, ISSC, ITTC, Mitsuyasu, and JONSWAP spectrum, are considered. A discrete form for each of the given spectrum models is used to specify the incident wave conditions. Analytical solutions based on both the Fresnel integrals and polynomial approximations of the Fresnel integrals and numerical solutions of a boundary integral approach have been used to obtain the two-dimensional wave diffraction by a semi-infinite breakwater at uniform water depth. The diffraction of random waves is based on the cumulative superposition of linear diffraction solution. The results of predicted random wave diffraction for each of the given spectrum models are compared with those of the published physical model presented by Briggs et al. [1995. Wave diffraction around breakwater. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering—ASCE 121(1), 23–35]. Reasonable agreement is obtained in all cases. The effect of the directional spreading function is also examined from the results of the random wave diffraction. Based on these comparisons, the present model for the analysis of various wave spectra is found to be an accurate and efficient tool for predicting the random wave field around a semi-infinite breakwater or inside a harbor of arbitrary geometry in practical applications.     

长期非平稳荷载调谐质量减振阻尼器优化设计

研究外荷载为长期非平稳随机过程。考虑长期荷载的特性 ,采用 1个概率谱密度函数来反映长期非平稳随机荷载及其特征 ;概率谱密度函数是基于大量的一般谱密度函数的统计特性获得。以延长结构的抗疲劳使用寿命为目标函数 ,提出了调谐质量减振阻尼器的优化设计方法 ,这在实际工程中有着极为广阔的应用前景。本文旨在从理论上发展长期非平稳随机荷载作用下调谐质量减振阻尼器的优化设计方法 ;文中采用长期波浪实测数据 ,给出了 1个数值算例说明整个设计过程。     

A Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Propagation Analysis

A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is pre-sented.In the model,the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables,and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshorestructural steel under constant amplitude loading.Furthermore,by using the Monte Carlo simulation tech-nique,the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted.The tests are conducted toverify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.     

Fatigue damage of ship hulls due to local ice-induced stresses

Fatigue damage in a ship hull could lead to leakage of ballast or cargo, water intrusion, degradation of hull strength, or even worse, i.e. catastrophic structural failure. For ships navigating in ice-covered waters, fatigue damage due to ice actions can be of importance. The present paper proposes a systematic procedure for fatigue damage assessment in relation to ships navigating in ice-covered waters. Closed form expressions for the fatigue damage based on the Palmgren–Miner’s rule are derived for several different statistical models of the stress amplitudes, i.e. the exponential, the Weibull’s, and the three-parameter exponential distributions. Additional expressions are also provided when stress concentration factor and/or a lower threshold of the stress amplitude are taken into account. The proposed procedure for fatigue damage assessment reflects the variation in ice conditions, vessel’s speed, and operational modes. Some practical concerns related to application of the proposed procedure are also discussed. A particular example of fatigue damage calculation is presented, where data obtained from full scale measurement performed on board of the vessel KV Svalbard in the winter 2007 are utilized.     

深海悬链线立管涡激疲劳损伤研究

讨论海洋平台钢质悬链线式立管SCR(Steel Catenary Riser)的涡激疲劳损伤问题。对于悬链线立管外的流体,给出涡脱落频率和升力对立管作用的计算方法。悬链线立管采用索结构模型,进行动力学分析并利用模态叠加法对其进行动力响应分析。根据Palmgren-Miner线性累积损伤准则并结合S-N曲线,分析在不同流速下立管的涡激疲劳损伤。以工程中实际使用的1 500 m Spar海洋平台悬链线立管为例,对立管的涡激疲劳损伤进行了预报。并通过立管的参数研究,分别就立管外不同来流速度、立管壁厚、内部流体密度和柔性接头刚度对其疲劳损伤的影响进行了分析,得到了一些有意义的研究结果。     

Numerical Study on the Probability of Fatigue Failure of a Semi-Submerged Platform Structure

On the basis of Miner's linear cumulative damage theorem, random variables are introduced to evaluate objectively the fatigue damage of a semi-submerged platform structure and a method is presented to analyze the fatigue reliability of the structure in its design life. The reliability of the method is verified through numerical examples and some conclusions are drawn, which have certain guiding and reference value for design and inspection.     

半潜式海洋平台结构的疲劳失效概率计算研究

本文根据Ｍｉｎｅｒ线性累积损伤原理，引入随机变量，客观地分析了半潜式平台结构因疲劳引起损伤的情况，提出了平台结构在设计寿命期间的疲劳可靠性分析方法，通过算例，验证了方法的可靠性，并得出有意义的结论。     

Research on Analytical Method of Fatigue Characteristics of Soft Yoke Mooring System Based on Full-Scale Measurement

By focusing on the vulnerability of the structure of marine equipments, together with considering the randomness of meta-ocean load in statistics, a kind of analytical method of fatigue characteristics of marine structure based on full-scale and actual measurement of prototype is proposed. On the basis of short-term field measurement results of structural response, research is carried out on the fatigue analysis of hinge joints at the upper part of the Soft Yoke single point Mooring System (SYMS) by simultaneously monitoring the environmental load and considering the design criteria of offshore structure. Through analysis of finite element modeling, the time-histories of typical stress response are obtained, and then the assessment of fatigue damage at key hinge joints is conducted. The simulation results indicate that the proposed method can accurately analyze the fatigue damage of offshore engineering structure caused by the effect of wave load. The present analytical method of fatigue characteristics can be extended on other offshore engineering structures subjected to meta-ocean load.     

冰区海上风机支撑结构疲劳评估方法研究

采用谱分析的方法,对冰区作业的海上风机支撑结构进行疲劳损伤评估。基于风冰散布图,将海上风机所受的风载荷和连续挤压冰载荷作为系统输入,热点应力作为输出,运用随机振动理论与主应力线性化方法,对冰区海上风机支撑结构进行疲劳评估。以某2 MV海上风机支撑结构为计算实例,验证频域疲劳评估方法的准确性。频域方法与时域方法计算结果吻合较好,证明了频域方法的快速有效,可用于快速评估风机支撑结构的疲劳损伤。     

Optimal Design of TMD Under Long-Term Nonstationary Wave Loading

—Traditionally,the use of a tuned mass damper(TMD)is to improve the surviability of the pri-mary structure under extraordinary loading environment while the design loading condition is describedby either a harmonic function or a stationary random process that can be fully characterized by a powerspectral density(PSD)function.Aiming at prolonging the fatigue life of an offshore platform,this studyconsiders an optimal design of TMD for the platform under long-term nonstationary loading due tolong-term random sea waves characterized by a probabilistic power spectral density(PPSD)function.Inprinciple,a PPSD could be derived based on numerous ordinary PSD functions;and each of them is treat-ed as realization of the corresponding PPSD.This study provides a theoretical development for theoptimal TMD design by minimizing the cost function to be the mean square value of the expectedlong-term response.A numerical example is presented to illustrate the developed design procedure.     

基于实测应力的半潜平台疲劳损伤分析

疲劳破坏是海洋结构物发生破坏的一种主要形式,深水半潜平台在海上运输、作业、停滞时会受到交变的风、浪、流载荷作用,进而引起结构关键节点处的疲劳损伤,影响平台安全性。以"海洋石油981"半潜钻井平台为研究对象,利用光纤光栅应变传感器对结构高应力区进行应力监测,获取测点处应力时历数据。将监测位置划分为四个监测板块,采用四点雨流计数法对测点应力进行处理,得到以离散形式给出的应力循环幅度与相应循环周次。参照DNV《海上钢结构疲劳设计规范》推荐的S-N曲线,基于Miner线性疲劳累计损伤原则,得到各个测点处的总体疲劳损伤度。选取具有最大疲劳损伤度的危险测点,并结合海上实测总时长,预测半潜平台的总体疲劳寿命。     

Effect of ship structure and size on grounding and collision damage distributions

It has been argued that a major shortcoming in the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Interim Guidelines for Approval of Alternative Methods of Design and Construction of Oil Tankers in Collision and Grounding is that grounding and collision damages normalized by the main dimensions of the ship have the same probability density distributions regardless of a particular structural design and ship size.The present paper explores analytical methods for assessing the overall effect of structural design on the damage distributions in accidental grounding and collisions. The results are expressed in simple expressions involving structural dimensions and the building material of the ships. The study shows that the density distribution for collision and grounding damages normalized by the main dimensions of the ship depends on the size of the ship. A larger ship has a higher probability of a larger relative damage length than that of a smaller ship in grounding damage. On the other hand, the damages to the side structure caused by ship collisions are found to be relatively smaller for large ships.The main conclusion is that the existing IMO damage distributions will severely underestimate the grounding damages to the bottom structure of larger vessels and to a lesser extent overestimate collision damages to the side structure of the hull.     

辽东湾锥体平台结构疲劳冰荷载的蒙特卡洛模拟

利用辽东湾JZ20-2海域的海冰现场监测和数值推算资料,确定了海冰的厚度、速度和弯曲强度等海冰参数的概率分布特征;通过构造锥体结构动冰力函数,对该海域锥体平台结构的疲劳冰荷载进行了蒙特卡洛模拟.统计结果表明冰力幅值和冰力周期均符合对数正态分布.为更加合理地确定锥体平台结构的疲劳冰荷载,对冰力幅值和周期进行了联合概率分析.研究成果可用于辽东湾JZ20-2海域锥体平台结构的可靠性设计和疲劳寿命评估。     

基于可靠性的海洋立管疲劳安全系数研究

综合考虑了立管疲劳安全系数取值的相关因素——立管的安全等级、设计寿命、检验周期、载荷和损伤计算方法等的不确定性,提出了基于可靠度的疲劳安全系数确定方法,筛选了用于计算波致疲劳和VIV(涡激振动)疲劳的随机变量,给出了立管波致疲劳与VIV疲劳安全系数的计算流程,并以某SCR(钢悬链线立管)为例进行了安全系数计算。结果表明,该方法的计算结果优于传统的安全系数确定方法,尤其适合于特殊工程方案或新颖设计的立管疲劳校核。     

Sonar tracking of multiple targets using joint probabilistic data association

The problem of associating data with targets in a cluttered multi-target environment is discussed and applied to passive sonar tracking. The probabilistic data association (PDA) method, which is based on computing the posterior probability of each candidate measurement found in a validation gate, assumes that only one real target is present and all other measurements are Poisson-distributed clutter. In this paper, a new theoretical result is presented: the joint probabilistic data association (JPDA) algorithm, in which joint posterior association probabilities are computed for multiple targets (or multiple discrete interfering sources) in Poisson clutter. The algorithm is applied to a passive sonar tracking problem with multiple sensors and targets, in which a target is not fully observable from a single sensor. Targets are modeled with four geographic states, two or more acoustic states, and realistic (i.e., low) probabilities of detection at each sample time. A simulation result is presented for two heavily interfering targets illustrating the dramatic tracking improvements obtained by estimating the targets' states using joint association probabilities.     

Probability distribution of random wave forces in weakly nonlinear random waves

Based on the second-order random wave theory, the joint statistical distribution of the horizontal velocity and acceleration is derived using the characteristic function expansion method. From the joint distribution and the Morison equation, the theoretical distributions of drag forces, inertia forces and total random wave forces are determined. The distribution of inertia forces is Gaussian as that derived using the linear wave model, whereas the distributions of drag forces and total random forces deviate slightly from those derived utilizing the linear wave model. It is found that the distribution of wave forces depends solely on the frequency spectrum of sea waves associated with the first order approximation and the second order wave–wave interaction.     

Reliability-Based Optimal Design for Very Large Floating Structure

1 .ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅａｐｐｒａｉｓａｌｏｆａｇｏｏｄｄｅｓｉｇｎｆｏｒａｖｅｒｙｌａｒｇｅｆｌｏａｔｉｎｇｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅ(ＶＬＦＳ)ｔｈａｔｗｉｌｌｓｅｒｖｅｉｎａｓｐｅｃｉ ｆｉｅｄｏｃｅａｎａｒｅａｒｅｑｕｉｒｅｓｔｈａｔｔｈｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒａｌｓｙｓｔｅｍｂｅｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃａｌｌｙｄｅｓｉｇｎｅｄ ,ｔｈｅｒｅｑｕｉｒｅｍｅｎｔｓｆｏｒｉｔｓｆｕｎｃｔｉｏｎｂｅｓａｔｉｓｆｉｅｄａｎｄｔｈｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｋｅｅｐｓｓｔａｂｌｅｉｎｉｔｓｗｈｏｌｅｓｅｒｖｉｃｅｐｅｒｉｏ…     

Cross-shore hydrodynamics within an unsaturated surf zone

This paper concerns the hydrodynamics induced by random waves incident on a steep beach. New experimental results are presented on surface elevation and kinematic probability density functions, cross-shore variation in wave heights, the fraction of broken waves and velocity moments. The surf zone is found to be unsaturated at incident wave frequencies, with a significant proportion of the incident wave energy remaining at the shoreline in the form of bores. Wave heights in both the outer and inner surf zones are best described by a full Rayleigh distribution [Thornton, E.B., Guza, R.T., 1983. Transformation of wave height distribution. J. Geophys. Res. 88, 5925–5938], rather than a truncated Rayleigh distribution as used by Battjes and Janssen (1978) [Battjes, J.A, Janssen, J.P., 1978. Energy loss and setup due to breaking of random waves. Proc. 16th Int. Conf. Coastal Eng. ASCE, New York, pp. 569–588]. A new parametric wave transformation model is outlined which provides explicit expressions for the fraction of broken waves and the energy dissipation rate within the surf zone. On steep beaches, the model appears to offer improved predictive capabilities over the original Battjes and Janssen model. Cross-shore variations in the velocity variance and velocity moments are best described using Linear Gaussian wave theory, with less than 20% of the velocity variance in the inner surf zone due to low frequency energy.