Tradeoffs and synergies between ecosystem services : A comparison of the karst and non-karst area

Under the influence of various natural and human factors, the relationship between the ecosystem services provided for human beings by a karst ecosystem is becoming increasingly complex, profoundly limiting the effective and sustainable development of the social economy and ecosystem protection in karst areas. Taking Guizhou, China as an example, which includes both karst(including five different landforms) and non-karst area, the study explored and compared the tradeoff and synergy between ecosystem services in both terrain types. The results showed higher change rates of water yield and soil retention in karst areas than those in non-karst areas, with only small differences in the carbon storage and crop production change. The ecosystem service relationships in the karst area from 1995 to 2005 were consistent with the relationships in the non-karst area. However, differences were observed in most of these relationships from 2005 to 2015. The relationships between ecosystem services in different karst landforms from 1995 to 2005 remained the same, but there are differences found in the relationships of ecosystem services from 2005 to 2015. The trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services in the different landforms were closely related to the changes of climate and land use, particularly related to rainfall, rainfall erosivity, farmland, and forestland.     

Ecosystem health assessment of Honghu Lake Wetland of China using artificial neural network approach

Honghu Lake, located in the southeast of Hubei Province, China, has suffered a severe disturbance during the past few decades. To restore the ecosystem, the Honghu Lake Wetland Protection and Restoration Demonstration Project (HLWPRDP) has been implemented since 2004. A back propagation (BP) artificial neural network (ANN) approach was applied to evaluatinig the ecosystem health of the Honghu Lake wetland. And the effectiveness of the HLWPRDP was also assessed by comparing the ecosystem health before and after the project. Particularly, 12 ecosystem health indices were used as evaluation parameters to establish a set of three-layer BP ANNs. The output is one layer of ecosystem health index. After training and testing the BP ANNs, an optimal model of BP ANNs was selected to assess the ecosystem health of the Honghu Lake wetland. The result indicates that four stages can be identified based on the change of the ecosystem health from 1990 to 2008 and the ecosystem health index ranges from morbidity before the implementation of HLWPRDP (in 2002) to middle health after the implementation of the HLWPRDP (in 2005). It demonstrates that the HLWPRDP is effective and the BP ANN could be used as a tool for the assessment of ecosystem health.     

Remote sensing of ecosystem services: An opportunity for spatially explicit assessment

Ecosystem service is an emerging concept that grows to be a hot research area in ecology. Spatially explicit ecosystem service values are important for ecosystem service management. However, it is difficult to quantify ecosystem services. Remote sensing provides images covering Earth surface, which by nature are spatially explicit. Thus, remote sensing can be useful for quantitative assessment of ecosystem services. This paper reviews spatially explicit ecosystem service studies conducted in ecology and remote sensing in order to find out how remote sensing can be used for ecosystem service assessment. Several important areas considered include land cover, biodiversity, and carbon, water and soil related ecosystem services. We found that remote sensing can be used for ecosystem service assessment in three different ways: direct monitoring, indirect monitoring, and combined use with ecosystem models. Some plant and water related ecosystem services can be directly monitored by remote sensing. Most commonly, remote sensing can provide surrogate information on plant and soil characteristics in an ecosystem. For ecosystem process related ecosystem services, remote sensing can help measure spatially explicit parameters. We conclude that acquiring good in-situ measurements and selecting appropriate remote sensor data in terms of resolution are critical for accurate assessment of ecosystem services.     

近20年来济南泉水补给区景观格局及其功能变化分析

本文以济南市泉水补给区为研究对象,利用GIS空间分析方法,在其景观变化分析的基础上,参照中国陆地生态系统的生态服务价值系数,估算了泉水补给区生态服务功能价值变化,重点分析景观变化对研究区生态服务功能的影响,进而为区域可持续发展和城市建设提供理论支持。结果表明:(1)20世纪90年代以来,泉水补给区耕地和草地景观面积呈减少趋势,林地、园地和建设用地景观面积大幅增加,其中,以林地面积增加最大;从景观类型转化看,耕地与其他景观类型相互转化较为密切,特别是与建设用地和园地之间的转化;林地面积的增加主要来源于草地和耕地;(2)泉水补给区生态服务功能价值主要由林地和耕地景观生态服务价值构成,其变化对该研究区生态服务价值变化起决定作用;从生态服务价值构成类型来看,该地区土壤形成与保护服务功能单项价值所占比重最大,约占总服务功能价值的20%;(3)90年代以来,该地区总生态服务价值呈增加趋势;从单项服务价值变化来看,水源涵养、废物处理和食物生产服务功能价值则呈现出减小趋势,其中,以水源涵养减幅最大,为4.01%,主要是由该区建设用地增加,地面硬化面积增多而引起的。研究认为,济南市南部山区作为重要的泉水补给区,其生态服务功能尤为重要,特别是水源涵养功能,因此,研究区水源涵养服务功能价值的降低应在今后南部山区开发过程中得到足够的重视与保护,逐步增加泉水补给区的整体生态效益。     

Value estimation of greenhouse gases exchange in wetland ecosystem of Sanjiang Plain, China

The objective of this study is to quantify the values of greenhouse gases (GHGs) exchange in carbon equivalents of marshes and paddy fields in the Sanjiang Plain, Heilongjiang Province, China. We obtained the GHGs exchange values based on comparable price by calculating the carbon sequestration values and the GHGs emission values of marshes and paddy fields respectively in four periods of 1982, 1995, 2000 and 2005. It is noted that the GHGs emission values are always negative. In this study, the marshes areas decreased from 1438977.0 to 775,132.2ha and the paddy fields areas increased from 417195.8 to 934205.0ha. The values of GHGs exchange of marshes varied from 135877.156×106 to 136882.534×106 yuan (RMB) and those of paddy fields varied from 1006.256×106 to 2767.645×106 yuan. The GHGs exchange values of marshes decreased from 1982 to 2005 on the whole, reversely, those of paddy fields increased, but those in 2005 were lower than those in 2000. In different periods, the GHGs exchange values were always higher in marshes than in paddy fields. The contribution rate of GHGs exchange values per unit area of marshes was also very high in different periods, and the maximum was up to 98.35% in 2005. As far as the whole wetland ecosystem (including marshes and paddy fields), assuming a linear change in GHGs exchange values, it represented a cumulative increase of 20926.757×106 yuan from 1982 to 2005. By adding GHGs exchange values increased during those four periods, we obtained a cumulative net increase values of GHGs exchange of wetland ecosystem of 18200.860×106 yuan. The results will be useful for understanding the indirect services provided by marshes and paddy fields.     

Basic characteristics, spatial disparity and its major influencing factors of service industry in China

Based on the analysis of its basic characteristics, this article investigated the disparities of Chinese service industry among the three regions (the eastern China, the western China and the middle China) and inter-provincial disparities of that in the three regions by Theil coefficient and cluster analysis. Then, major factors influencing its spatial disparity were explored by correlation analysis and regression analysis. The conclusions could be drawn as follows. 1) The development of Chinese service industry experienced three phases since the 1980s: rapid growth period, slow growth period, and recovery period. From the proportion of value-added and employment, its development was obviously on the low level. From the composition of industrial structure, traditional service sectors were dominant, but modern service sectors were lagged. Moreover, its spatial disparity was distinct. 2) The level of Chinese service industry was divided into five basic regional ranks: well-developed, developed, relatively-developed, underdeveloped and undeveloped regions. As a whole, the overall structure of spatial disparity was steady in 1990–2005. But there was notable gradient disparity in the interior structure of service industry among different provinces. Furthermore, the overall disparity expanded rapidly in 1990–2005. The inter-provincial disparity of service industry in the three regions, especially in the eastern China, was bigger than the disparity among the three regions. And 3) the level of economic development, the level of urban development, the scale of market capacity, the level of transportation and telecommunication, and the abundance of human resources were major factors influencing the development of Chinese service industry.     

Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services in Arid Area Ecological Migration

Ecological migration is the process of increasing the population density in the immigration area and transferring the ecological pressure from emigration area to immigration area. This process may result in significant changes in land use and land cover in the area of immigration and have an important effect on ecosystem services. Therefore, scientifically revealing the effects and differentiation mechanisms of ecological migration on ecosystem services is becoming an important issue related to the implementation of the national ecological migration strategy in China. This study employed the Hongsibu District as a typical example of ecological migration. Hongsibu District is located in the central Ningxia steppe and desert steppe areas. Remote sensing data covering five periods from the period before ecological migration in 1995 and after migration in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 was used to measure the value of ecosystem services(ESV). A geographical detector model and the value of ecosystem services model were used to diagnose the dynamic mechanism of the effects of land use change on ecosystem services. The results showed that: 1) The development of large-scale ecological resettlement has caused the area of cultivated land and urbanized land area to increase significantly in the area of immigration, while the grass area decreased significantly. 2) The overall value of the Hongsibu ecosystem services increased in a form of a ‘V'. Among them, during the period of 1995–2005, the overall ESV decreased and had an annual rate of change of-0.67%. During the period of development 2005–2015, the ESV increased steadily, with an annual rate of change of 0.79%. 3) The proportion and total ESV in soil formation and protection, waste treatment, and biodiversity conservation of the Hongsibu District decreased from 57.61% in 1995 to 56.17% in 2015, indicating that the region's ecological regulation function slightly decreased. 4) The ESV in the Hongsibu District, showed a low distribution pattern of ecosystem services increasing from northeast to southwest, and the capacity of three townships, Hongsibu, Taiyangshan, and Liuquan, to provide ecosystem services gradually declined over time. The ecological service function of Xinzhuangji Township and Dahe Township gradually improved. 5) The sensitivity index of the ESV of each land use type was less than 1, indicating that the environment lacks flexibility in providing a strong ESV index in Hongsibu, which shows that the research results are reliable and believable. 6) During the study period, the decisive force of the change of land use on ecosystem services in Hongsibu District was: grassland(0.9934), climate regulation(0.9413), soil formation and protection(0.9321) and waste treatment(0.9241).     

Valuation of lake and marsh wetlands ecosystem services in China

Wetlands are highly productive natural ecosystems, providing valuable goods and services. There is growing interest in transferring ecosystem service value from the existing wetlands studied to other wetlands ecosystems at a large geographic scale. The benefit transfer method uses the known values from wetlands to predict the value of other wetland sites. This methodology requires only limited time and resources. The present study calculated the value of the ecological services provided by lake and marsh wetlands in China in terms of biodiversity indices, water quality indices and economic indices. Basic data on wetlands were obtained through remote sensing images. The results show that: 1) The total ecosystem service value of the lake and marsh wetlands in 2008 was calculated to be 8.1841 × 1010 United States Dollars(USD), with the marsh and lake wetlands contributing 5.6329 × 1010 and 2.5512 × 1010 USD, respectively. Values of marsh ecosystem service were concentrated in Heilongjiang Province(2.5516 × 1010 USD), Qinghai Province(1.2014 × 1010 USD), and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(1.1884 × 1010 USD). The value of the lakes were concentrated in Tibet Autonomous Region(6.223 × 109 USD), Heilongjiang(5.810 × 109 USD), and Qinghai(5.500 × 109 USD). 2) Waste treatment and climate regulation services contributed to 26.29% and 24.74% respectively, of the total ecosystem service value of the marsh wetlands. Hydrological regulation and waste treatment contributed to 41.39% and 32.75%, respectively, of the total ecosystem service value of the lake wetlands. 3) The total ecological service value of the lake and marsh wetlands was 54.64% of the total service value of natural grassland ecosystems and 30.34% of the total service value of forests ecosystems in China.     

Wetland economic valuation approaches and prospects in China

Ecosystem services valuation seeks to increase the social relevance of ecosystem characteristics, the underlying biological mechanisms that support services, by making the contribution of ecosystems to human well-being explicit. Economic valuation can help management by clarifying the full range of benefits and costs of proposed management actions. In the past two decades, economic valuation of wetland ecosystem services has become one of the most significant scientific priorities for wetland protection. In this paper, we provide an overview of ecosystem services, and summarize the main interdisciplinary approaches to measure and value wetland ecosystem services. We identified four main methodological gaps preventing progress on wetland valuation of ecosystem services in China, which are: 1) confusion on terminology like intermediate and final ecosystem services, 2) lack of ecological production functions to link ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services, 3) static valuation making it difficult to evaluate the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services, and 4) lack of clear guidance on relating ecological compensation programs to conservation targets. Overcoming these gaps is important to inform wetland compensation mechanisms and conservation policies. We propose future research on wetland ecosystem services in China should be focused on: 1) defining final ecosystem services based on beneficiary preferences and underlying biophysical mechanisms, 2) establishing wetland monitoring programs at specific sites to collect data on final ecosystem service indicators and ecosystem characteristic metrics to create ecological production functions for economic valuation and rescaling techniques, and 3) incorporating wetland ecosystem service values into decision-making processes to inform wetland management.     

ESTIMATION OF ECOLOGICAL SERVICE VALUES OF WETLANDS IN SHANGHAI, CHINA

1IN TR O D U CTIO N Wetlandsprovidemany importantservicesto human societ,y butareatthesame timeecologicallsyensitiv andadaptivesystems.Thisexplainswhy inrecentyears much attentiohnasbeenpaidto theformulatioanndop- erationof sustainablmeanagement strategie…     

近30年天津滨海新区湿地景观格局遥感监测分析

在GIS和FRAGSTATS软件支持下,结合景观格局数量分析方法,利用1979-2008年间共6期TM遥感影像与非遥感数据,对天津滨海新区近30年的湿地景观空间格局进行了动态分析。结果表明,滨海新区湿地(以人工湿地为主),1979-2004年滨海新区湿地总面积变化不大,但各类型间转换较大,主要是自然湿地转变为人工湿地,沼泽湿地几近消失。2006-2008年,由于城市建设大量滨海滩涂湿地被围填占用,到2009年5月自然海岸线的90%以上被占用。景观破碎度增加,湿地斑块数量从137个增加到704个,同时造成平均斑块面积下降。驱动力分析表明,降雨量减少的同时,年平均气温上升是主要的自然驱动因素。和自然因素相比,人类干扰为主要人文驱动因素,表现在水产养殖为主的农业经济活动、城市建设用地占用和围海造地等方面。目前,滨海新区几乎没有自然湿地生态系统,破碎化和人工化是该区域湿地的主要特征。     

Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Carbon Stocks Over the Transboundary Tumen River Basin in Northeast Asia

Understanding the effects of land cover changes on ecosystem carbon stocks is essential for ecosystem management and environmental protection, particularly in the transboundary region that has undergone marked changes. This study aimed to examine the impacts of land cover changes on ecosystem carbon stocks in the transboundary Tumen River Basin (TTRB). We extracted the spatial information from Landsat Thematic Imager (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) images for the years 1990 and 2015 and obtained convincing estimates of terrestrial biomass and soil carbon stocks with the InVEST model. The results showed that forestland, cropland and built-up land increased by 57.5, 429.7 and 128.9 km², respectively, while grassland, wetland and barren land declined by 24.9, 548.0 and 43.0 km², respectively in the TTRB from 1990 to 2015. The total carbon stocks encompassing aboveground, belowground, soil and litter layer carbon storage pools have declined from 831.48 Tg C in 1990 to 831.42 Tg C in 2015 due to land cover changes. In detail, the carbon stocks decreased by 3.13 Tg C and 0.44 Tg C in Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and Russia, respectively, while increased by 3.51 Tg C in China. Furthermore, economic development, and national policy accounted for most land cover changes in the TTRB. Our results imply that effective wetland and forestland protection policies among China, North Korea, and Russia are much needed for protecting the natural resources, promoting local ecosystem services and regional sustainable development in the transnational area.     

鄱阳湖地区土地覆盖空间分布格局与景观特征分析

 鄱阳湖是我国第一大淡水湖,具有洪水调蓄、水源涵养等重要生态服务功能。掌握鄱阳湖地区土地覆盖的空间分布格局和规律,对于评价其环境保护和生态服务功能具有重要作用。本文利用环境卫星影像、2005年鄱阳湖地区土地覆盖数据,经遥感解译分析获取了鄱阳湖地区2010年土地覆盖现状数据及其空间分布格局图。研究表明:(1)采用2010年的环境星影像结合2005年土地覆盖数据,人工目视解译得到的2010年土地覆盖数据的精度为80.4%。(2)景观生态学、GIS及统计学的思想和方法可以为土地覆盖空间特征的定量分析提供技术支持。文中采用的斑块面积指数、斑块形状指数、不同土地覆盖类型的邻接指数,从不同角度反映了鄱阳湖地区土地覆盖的空间分布格局及景观特征。(3)景观指数能定量说明土地覆盖景观的形状、大小、数量和空间组合,能反映景观的生态环境特点、人类活动及社会经济状况。面积特征指数显示研究区农村聚落的离散度及破碎度最高;斑块形状指数反映出研究区水体形状趋于规则化,其受到人类的"围湖造田,围湖造地"及防洪工程建设的干扰。(4)不同土地覆盖类型的邻接指数能定量说明相邻类型在物质交换、结构与功能的相互影响及土地资源形成机制、演替过程等。水田与常绿阔叶林的邻接关系反映了人类"毁林开荒"活动对林地与水田演替关系的影响;水田与农村聚落的邻接关系,表明研究区耕地保护的重点是城镇及农村周边耕地的保护;城镇建设用地的邻接关系表明了人类生活所需的生活条件,为"移民建镇"工程提供了科学依据。分析认为:鄱阳湖地区是以耕地为主的农业区,并且有丰富的水资源及森林资源,但今后要重视农村土地的集约化利用、水资源保护、耕地资源保护和自然资源的合理开发利用。     

夜间灯光数据支持下西藏人类活动强度变化对生态系统调节服务的影响

西藏自治区特殊的高寒生态系统对人类活动具有高度敏感性,定量评估系列政策实施下西藏生态系统调节服务对人类活动强度变化的响应有助于西藏生态政策和空间规划的调整完善。本研究基于西藏1980年和2015年土地利用现状数据及1992—2013年DMSP/OLS夜间灯光指数数据,借助GIS空间分析功能分析了居民点用地和夜间灯光强度的变化;并结合生态系统调节服务空间数据,利用相关分析对居民点用地和夜间灯光变化所反映的人类活动强度变化对西藏生态系统水土保持和防风固沙服务的影响进行研究。结果表明：① 1980—2015年,西藏新增居民点用地212.06 km²,减少居民点用地44.99 km²,其中,新增居民点用地中62%为城镇用地,减少的居民点用地中95.88%为农村居民点;居民点用地变化主要发生在藏南河谷区;② 自治区内居民点用地扩张一定程度上直接导致夜间灯光强度增加,“一江两河”流域土地整治工程和农牧民安居工程等促进了当地人类活动强度增加,区内部分乡镇因进城务工和易地扶贫搬迁造成了当地人类活动强度的下降;③ 西藏2015年防风固沙服务较1990年有整体增强趋势,水土保持服务除藏东高山峡谷区外均有大幅度退化趋势;④ 对居民点用地进行的还林、还草整治工程等人类活动有利于促进生态系统防风固沙服务的恢复;人类活动强度的增加极易导致水土保持服务的退化,“一江两河”流域体现最为明显。研究能为西藏国土空间规划和生态政策的制定和调整提供参考。     

Dynamics of wetland landscape pattern in Kaifeng City from 1987 to 2002

It is very significant for urban development and urban wetland protection and utilization to probe into the process and reasons of urban wetland landscape dynamics. Taking the information of remote sensing and detailed land survey data as the basic information sources, with the help of RS and GIS, according to the principles and methods of landscape ecology, this paper analyzed wetland landscape pattern dynamics and its reasons in Kaifeng City, Henan Province of China, from 1987 to 2002. The results show that the total wetland area in Kaifeng City firstly reduced by 20.1% from 1987 to 1990 and then increased from 1990 to 2002, with an average annual growth rate of 3.3%. At the same time, landscape fragment degree and landscape dominance degree increased, respectively from 0.64 to 0.72 and from 0.3754 to 0.5563, but mean patch area, maximum patch area, patch fractal dimension reduced. As far as single landscape element concerned, fi＇om 1987 to 2002, patch area, patch number, patch density, patch shape and patch location changed in varying degrees in all wetland types in Kaifeng City, among which rice field changed most and others relatively less. In the recent 20 years, rice fields, lake wetlands, puddles and ponds had a higher stability, but river and bottomland wetlands were mostly transformed to land use types. The change of wetland landscape pattern was the result of the combined action of the Huanghe （Yellow） River, urban expansion, wide cultivation of rice, and rapid development of fishery. Among them human activities were the main driving factors for wetland landscape changes.     

近30年来长江源区土地覆被变化特征分析

长江源区是我国重要的水源涵养地。本文利用20世纪70年代中后期、90年代初期、2004年和2008年共4期土地覆被数据,通过土地覆被转类途径与幅度、土地覆被状况指数和土地覆被转类指数,分析评价了长江源区近30年来土地覆被与生态状况的时空变化特征。结果表明：草地是长江源区主要的土地覆被类型,2008年草地面积占该区总面积的66.93%。在70年代中后期-90年代初期、90年代初期-2004年和2004-2008年的3个时段内,土地覆被状况指数变化率分别为-0.15、-0.24和0.01;土地覆被转类指数分别为-0.20、-0.66和0.08。近30年来,长江源区土地覆被和生态状况总体经历了变差-显著变差-略有好转的过程。2004-2008年,长江源区年平均温度比前期（70年代中后期-2004年）升高了0.57℃,年平均降水量比前期增加了17.63mm。区域气候变化有助于自然生态系统的恢复。后期生态保护与建设工程的实施,对植被恢复产生了一定的积极作用。     

Estimation of land production and its response to cultivated land conversion in North China Plain

Food safety and its related influencing factors in China are the hot research topics currently, and cultivated land conversion is one of the significant factors influencing food safety in China. Taking the North China Plain as the study area, this paper examines the changes of cultivated land area using satellite images, estimates land productivity from 1985 to 2005 using the model of Estimation System for Land Productivity (ESLP), and analyzes the impact of cultivated land conversion on the land production. Compared with the grain yield data from statistical yearbooks, the results indicate that ESLP model is an effective tool for estimating land productivity. Land productivity in the North China Plain showed a slight decreasing trend from 1985 to 2005, spatially, increased from the north to the south gradually, and the net changes varied in different areas. Cultivated land area recorded a marginal decrease of 8.0 × 10⁵ ha, mainly converted to other land uses. Cultivated land conversion had more significant negative impacts on land production than land productivity did. Land production decreased by about 6.48 × 10⁶ t caused by cultivated land conversion between 1985 and 2005, accounting for 91.9% of the total land production reduction. Although the land productivity increased in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces, it can not offset the overall adverse effects caused by cultivated land conversion. Therefore, there are significant meanings to control the cultivated land conversion and improve the land productivity for ensuring the land production in the North China Plain.     

Assessment of ecological importance of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on ecosystem service flows

Assessments of ecological importance based on static indexes that do not consider service flows frequently underestimate the importance of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a "source". On the basis of natural environmental characteristics, this study selected six type of ecosystem services for evaluation, including water retention, soil retention, carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, sandstorm prevention, and tourism. According to the attributes of each ecosystem service flow, we calculated the flow length and traffic accessibility indexes, using Arc GIS hydrological module and kernel functions separately, to comprehensively analyse the ecological importance levels of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Results showed that after considering the service flows, the ecologically important zone shifted to the core area of the Three River Source Region, such as Zadoi County located in the Tanggula Mountains. The area of extreme importance is mainly distributed in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, Tanggula Mountains, Hengduan Mountains, and Qilian Mountains, which accounts for 31.7% of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, providing approximately 60% of the ecosystem services and having extremely high protection efficiency and protection value. By introducing ecosystem service flow indexes, this study confirmed the ecological importance of core source areas such as the Tanggula Mountains, weakened the space bias caused by not considering the spatial transfer of ecosystem services, and provided technical support for optimizing ecological protection strategies and coordinating regional development.     

Long-term trend and fractal of annual runoff process in mainstream of Tarim River

Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005, the paper reveals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using the wavelet analysis method and the fractal theory. The main conclusions are as follows： 1） From a large time scale point of view, i.e. the time scale of 16 （24） years, the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a whole from 1958 to 2005. If the time scale is reduced to 8 （23） or 4 （22） years, the annual runoff still displays the basic trend as the large time scale, but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period. 2） The correlation dimension for the annual runoff process is 3.4307, non-integral, which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic characteristics. The correlation dimension is above 3, which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describe the dynamics of the annual runoff process. 3） The Hurst exponent for the first period （1958-1973） is 0.5036, which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos. The Hurst exponents for the second （1974-1989） and third （1990-2005） periods are both greater than 0.50, which indicate that the annual runoff process showed a long-enduring characteristic in the two periods. The Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indicates that the annual runoff will show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005.     

Forest ecosystem services and their values in Beijing

As the most important ecosystem in Beijing, the forest supports a lot of ecosystem services to local and around communities, which plays a key role in the maintenance of urban ecological security.However, the valuation on the forest ecosystem services based on regional scale could not provide precise and reasonable values for forestry sector management.In this study, we estimated the magnitudes and economic values of the forest ecosystem services in Beijing at sublot level.The economic value of forest ecosystem services in Beijing was estimated to be 19 339.71×10 6 yuan(RMB) in 2004.Among all the ecosystem services indicators we estimated in this study, only fruit, timber and part of the recreation(which only include the tourism income from the forest parks and scenic areas, but not include that from other forest types) were measured in the social economic system.As estimated in this study, more than 82.19% of the economic value of forest ecosystem services could not be measured in the socio-economic statistical system.The importance of forest ecosystem services in Beijing to human welfare was underestimated by the socio-economic system.Therefore, the policies about the eco-compensation of forest ecosystem services should be established to maintain the sustainable supply of the forest ecosystem services in Beijing.