在抗震救灾的日子里——玉树气象部门抗震救灾100天札记

<正>玉树,一个美丽神奇的地方,磅礴的雪山,如茵的草地,秀美的山川,清澈的河流,……,一幅美轮美奂的大自然画卷;悠扬的牧歌,飘逸的藏舞,寺院的钟声,飘香的奶茶,……,如同仙境一般让人留连忘返。     

高山出名茶

高山上的茶叶品质优良,与高山上的气候生态环境有密切的关系。茶树喜温暖潮湿的气候条件,在散射光多,水分充足,温度不很高的条件下,有利于含氮化物的形成和积累,茶叶内含物增加,芽叶健壮肥嫩,品质优良。若直射光强,温度较高,水分不足,则有利于纤维素形成,茶叶粗老,品质下降。我国出产名茶的高山茶园,大都分布在500—1200米的山坞中。由于地形地势的影响,一般气温不很高,雨量充沛,相对湿度较大,云雾特多,形成直射光减少,散射光增多的气候特点,为优质茶的生产创造了有利条件。     

秋日沉思

秋日的天空,深沉而又含蓄,她,镶嵌着我的理想,寄托着我的期望;白云轻轻飘游,顽皮而不放荡;她,亲吻着我的情怀,拥抱着我的志向.风儿悠悠刮来,撩拨着恋人的心扉,送给我一束束金灿灿的阳光.啊,蓝天,丽日,清风,白     

海滨观云

退了 ,久居北国 ,便很少去抬头看云了。上班那阵子 ,天天和云打交道 ,云量、云状、云高、云向 ,几乎云的每一个微小变化都不放过 ,因为云天云况是预测未来天气必不可少的呀 !如今却没有那种意识 ,没有那份“雅致”了。似乎也没有那个时间 ,更何况我们辽北平原天上的云 ,大半年都很呆滞 ,无生气 ,平铺的 ,灰灰的 ,像一块薄幕……渐渐地 ,周围的人们习惯于紧盯着脚下生财的道道 ,盯着市场 ,却忘掉了向远景凝眸 ,哪有那份闲情。夏天 ,去了趟青岛 ,便再也忘不了那儿的云 ,濒临黄海边的是一大片沙滩和崂山 ,巨大的海湾 ,山坡上那层层叠叠的建筑群…     

我爱北国的雪

我出生在千里冰封的黑龙江,对雪有一种特殊的感情,在我孩提时,每到冬天,总盼着早点下雪,觉得滚雪球、堆雪人、打雪仗,都别有一番情趣。 洁白的小天使翩然飘落了,纷纷扬扬,飘飘洒洒,一朵朵,一片片,一簇簇,一团团,像鹅毛一般,有的落在树梢,有的落在屋顶,更多的落在一望无际的大地上。她,玲珑剔透,晶莹如玉,洁白无瑕。她     

雪花

啊,从玉宇苍穹翩然飞来的雪花,像一个个白色的仙女飘向人间,用婀娜的舞姿、美丽的心灵,向人间昭示着纯洁,让所有的灵魂在你面前沉思。 啊,雪花,你没有冰那样透明光亮,没有雹那样勇猛激烈,没有霜那样威武严肃,但你犹如美丽的嫦娥,恰似洁白的玉莲,以无声的音符,演奏着美丽的乐章。     

枫叶红了

又是一个平静的秋天 ,又是一抹十月懒洋洋的斜阳 ,又是一树红彤彤的枫叶……站在夕阳的余辉里 ,尽管已是满怀疲惫 ,我依然固执地仰望着蓝天和那渐渐运去的云彩 ,既而陷入了长久的遐思 ,在我回过神来的一刹那 ,树上的枫叶猝然红了。似曾相识的红枫叶啊 ,在我眼前 ,火一样燃烧 ,鸟雀一样跳跃 ,悠忽簌簌凋零 ,坠入尘土 ,仿佛一颗爱过、恨过、恋过、怨过又归于淡泊的心灵。我虽平凡 ,平凡得犹如秋天的野地里一棵无人关注的小草 ,但顽强而执著。我努力向上 ,挥汗如雨 ,只因渴望成功 ;我埋首耕耘 ,只因期盼丰收。于是 ,我用满怀的喜悦讴歌十月 ,用…     

果洛地区风能、太阳能特征及利用

利用果洛州台近35a来地面观测资料,使用常用的气候统计方法分析果洛州气候特点,根据该地区的气候特点,为充分利用当地的风能、太阳能资源,促进果洛地区的经济发展提出了一些建议及实施的方法。风能、太阳能,取之不尽,用之不竭,丰富的气候资源是果洛州固有的优势,加之这种能源具有无需运输的优越性,既实用又环保,一次性投资长年受益,除了维修开支外,基本没有经常性的耗费,是廉价的,是边缘牧区开发利用的最佳能源项目,利用前景非常广阔。     

年鉴条目撰写的浅见

小平同志指出：“编辑出版年鉴,很有必要,这是国家的需要,四化建设的需要。”实践证明,年鉴是我们已经走过路程的真实写照,编写年鉴可以促进我们认真地回顾、思考、总结过去的工作,温故知新,知往鉴来,起到咨询、借鉴的作用,是不可缺少的工具书。无论从现实还是从历史角度看,年鉴都是很有价值的。难怪有人说,年鉴是昨天的史实,今天的镜子,明天的见证。盛世编史修志。党的十一届三中全会以来,我国的经济建设欣欣向荣,人民的生活水平不断提高,各项事业蓬勃发展。各地各部门纷纷修志写鉴,年鉴事业迎来了灿烂的春天,各种年鉴如…     

雨天的色彩

雨水 ,像密密的银线 ,把天空织成一个亮晶晶的网。雨水 ,像融融的清洁剂 ,把灰蒙蒙的村庄和干燥的田野洗得淋漓尽致。这个无颜色的雨水 ,从空中轻柔地均匀地飘落下来 ,落在房上 ,落在树上 ,落在篱笆上 ,落在庄稼地里 ,落在草丛中 ,落在泥土地上……于是 ,便像显影液泡进了彩色胶片 ,大地和大地上的万物 ,立刻显现出五彩缤纷来。瞧 ,灰白的泥土地 ,立刻变得黝黑滋润了。干燥而略呈黄色的树叶、庄稼叶和草叶 ,变得柔软而鲜绿了 ,而这绿 ,又有嫩绿、翠绿、浓绿、碧绿……瞧 ,那花朵变得更娇艳了。发白的假桃花变得更粉了 ,发灰的马兰花变得更蓝…     

关于年代际气候变化可能机制的研究

年代际气候变化作为年际和月季气候变化的重要背景,往往影响着年际和月季时间尺度的气候及特征。随着科学的发展进步和社会需求的提高,年代际气候变化已成为人们关注的重要问题。作为气候动力学和气候预测研究的重要内容之一,年代际气候变化及其动力学机制的研究在国内外都在蓬勃开展,并取得了不少的成果。本文除简要介绍了中国气候的年代际变化特征,将着重就年代际气候变化的可能机制作一个系统的综合性讨论,内容主要包括全球主要海温变化模态的影响、气候系统相互关系年代际变化的影响、大气行星尺度系统年代际变化的影响,以及太阳活动及火山爆发的影响等。大家知道,年代际气候变化研究十分重要,但也可以看到年代际气候变化的动力学机制却十分复杂,不少问题还没有搞的十分清楚,需要加大力量进行深入研究;我们相信,深入的研究结果必将对年代际气候变化的预测提供可靠的科学依据,进而推动年代际气候变化的业务预测及其能力的提高。     

IPCC AR6报告解读：未来的全球气候——基于情景的预估和近期信息

依据IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告第四章的内容,对未来全球气候的预估结果进行解读。报告对21世纪全球表面气温、降水、大尺度环流和变率模态、冰冻圈和海洋圈的可能变化进行了系统评估,并对2100年以后的气候变化做了合理估计。评估指出全球平均表面气温将在未来20年内达到或超过1.5℃,平均降水也将增加,但随季节和区域而异,同时变率将增大。大尺度环流和变率模态受内部变率影响较大。到21世纪末,北冰洋可能出现无冰期;全球海洋会继续酸化,平均海平面将持续上升,百年内上升幅度依赖不同排放情景,都在2100年后继续升高。在最新的评估中采用多种约束方法,减小了预估不确定性的范围。AR6对于低排放情景以及“小概率高增暖情节”的关注为应对气候变化提供了更多、更完整的信息。综合报告的评估结果指出,未来需要进一步减小区域,特别是季风区气候预估的不确定性,并从科学研究和模式发展两方面加强我国气候预估能力的建设。     

北极涛动的年代际变化及其气候影响

北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)是北半球热带外地区大气环流变率的主导模态,对北半球以及区域尺度气温变化具有重要影响.AO可在没有外强迫条件下通过d波流相互作用形成,因此它被认为是全球气候系统内部变率的重要组成部分.研究年代际尺度上AO的变化及其气候影响,可加深对当前北半球气候变化规律的物理理解,也...     

Thrusts and Prospects on Understanding and Predicting Asian Monsoon Climate

Development of monsoon climate prediction through integrated research efforts to improve our understanding of monsoon variability and predictability is a primary goal of the Asian Monsoon Years （200-2011） and International Monsoon Study under the leadership of the World Climate Research Programme. The present paper reviews recent progress in Asian monsoon research focusing on （1） understanding and modeling of the monsoon variability, （2） determining the sources and limits of predictability, and （3） assessing the current status of climate prediction, with emphasis on the weekly to interannual time scales. Particular attention is paid to identify scientific issues and thrust areas, as well as potential directions to move forward in an attempt to stimulate future research to advance our understanding of monsoon climate dynamics and improve our capability to forecast Asian monsoon climate variation.     

中国气候预测研究与业务发展的回顾

天气预报是指一周内至两周时间尺度的气象预报,而月季及以上时间尺度的预报则属于气候预测范畴。中国的气候预测起步很早,无论在研究工作中还是在业务应用上都取得了显著成就。文中扼要回顾了这些研究和业务发展成就,重点包括:对于季风和梅雨、寒潮的早期认知和后期研究发现、早期气候预测业务发展概况、动力气候预测的早期探索、动力-统计气候预测方法的研制和应用、气候预测模式的发展以及初始化和多模式集合预测、东亚气候系统变异的全方位探索、气候预测范畴的不断拓展和气候预测研究的不断创新。也对未来气候预测研究和业务发展提出了几个重大挑战性课题,涉及不同时间尺度气候变异过程之间的相互作用、季节内至年代际气候预测、气候系统模式及初始化、动力-统计相结合的气候预测方法等方面。      

Does recent global warming suggest an enhanced greenhouse effect?

Considerable controversy has been generated by the observation that the Earth's climate has warmed over the last century. Public policy decisions hinge on the question of whether this trend is natural climate variability or the result of the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. The strength of the enhanced greenhouse effect depends, in large part, on the uncertain value of climate sensitivity. In this paper climate sensitivity is estimated from the global temperature record by assuming models for greenhouse forcing, climate response to forcing, and climate variability. We find optimal estimates of climate sensitivity are remarkably insensitive to assumptions, at least for forcing excluding the effect of aerosols, and these values are considerably less than most predictions arising from General Circulation Models (GCM's). It is, however, the statistical significance of these estimates that is sensitive to assumptions about climate variability. Assuming climate variability with a time scale of a decade or less, climate sensitivity is estimated to be significantly greater than zero, but also significantly lower than that predicted by GCM's. Climate variability with a century time scale is consistent with both the recent temperature record and the pre-instrumental record for the last millenium; if this type of variability is assumed, the estimate of climate sensitivity has a confidence band wide enough to encompass both zero and typical values obtained by GCM's. With century time-scale variability it will be several decades before confident estimates can be made.     

CMIP6年代际气候预测计划（DCPP）概况与评述

年代际气候预测计划（DCPP）是第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的子计划之一,其目标是利用多模式开展气候系统年代际预测、可预测性和变率机制研究。DCPP设计了3组试验,即年代际回报试验、预报试验以及理解年代际变率机制和可预测性的敏感性试验。目前有21个模式拟参与DCPP计划,其中包括5个来自中国的模式。DCPP将推动解决气候系统从年际到年代际尺度预测相关的多项科学问题,评估当前气候预测系统预报技巧,挖掘潜在可预报性,研究长时间尺度气候变率形成机制,提供对科学和社会有用的预测产品。     

An examination of internally generated variability in long climate simulations

General circulation model experiments designed to estimate the magnitude and structure of internally generated variability and to help understand the mechanisms underlying this variability are described. The experiments consist of three multi-century integrations of a rhomboidal 15, 9 level, version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies atmospheric general circulation model: a run with fixed sea surface temperatures and equinox solar radiation, a run with seasonally varying climatological sea surface temperatures and seasonally varying solar forcing, and a run with seasonally varying solar forcing in which the state of the ocean is predicted by a 3° by 3°, 16 vertical level, nearly global domain version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Modular Ocean Model. No flux correction is used in the coupled model integration. Selected surface fields of the three runs are compared to each other as well as to the observed climate. Statistical properties of variability on interannual time scales are compared between the runs. Evidence is presented that climate time scale variability in the simulations is produced by random weather time scale forcing due to the integrating effect of elements of the system with long memories. The importance of ocean variability for land climate variability is demonstrated and attributed to both the memory effect and coupled atmosphere-ocean instability.     

Use of general circulation model output in the creation of climate change scenarios for impact analysis

Many scientific studies warn of a rapid global climate change during the next century. These changes are understood with much less certainty on a regional scale than on a global scale, but effects on ecosystems and society will occur at local and regional scales. Consequently, in order to study the true impacts of climate change, regional scenarios of future climate are needed. One of the most important sources of information for creating scenarios is the output from general circulation models (GCMs) of the climate system. However, current state-of-the-art GCMs are unable to simulate accurately even the current seasonal cycle of climate on a regional basis. Thus the simple technique of adding the difference between 2 × CO₂ and 1 × CO₂ GCM simulations to current climatic time series cannot produce scenarios with appropriate spatial and temporal details without corrections for model deficiencies. In this study a technique is developed to allow the information from GCM simulations to be used, while accommodating for the deficiencies. GCM output is combined with knowledge of the regional climate to produce scenarios of the equilibrium climate response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration for three case study regions, China, Sub-Saharan Africa and Venezuela, for use in biological effects models. By combining the general climate change calculated with several GCMs with the observed patterns of interannual climate variability, reasonable scenarios of temperature and precipitation variations can be created. Generalizations of this procedure to other regions of the world are discussed.     

Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway

This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multi-scale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research.