共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
2.
SO2构成的去凝结核会增加行星反照率,因此可使行星变冷。这种效应可抵消由温室气体增加造成的全球增暖。在二维模式中详细论述了矿物燃料燃烧与影响云反照率的SO2的关系以便计算气候效应。尽管我们在硫酸盐气溶胶和大气源汇方面的知识存在很大缺陷,还是有可能得出一般性结论。按保守算法,结果表明由于SO2排放导致的变冷作用目前能抵消CO2增温效应的50%,模式预测出自1980年以来有一个强大的增温趋势,仅198 相似文献
3.
一个考虑二氧化碳的非线性气侯模式 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
建立一个包含年平均二氧化碳含量[CO_2]、下垫面温度、边界层气温以及云量的零维气候模式,用于研究CO_2对气候的影响。结果表明,该模式能模拟出现代气候态以及[CO_2]变化的趋势。进而用与该模式相应的现代气候平衡态的偏差方程,考察了在CO_2的作用下,气候系统由定常态到周期态再到混沌态的演变过程。 相似文献
4.
太阳常数的微小变化在气候变化中的作用 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
将复杂的气候系统抽象为含有云辐射动态反馈过程的高度非线性气候模型,利用分岔理论,分析了该模型的平衡态及其稳定性。计算结果表明,云反照率反馈、地表反照率反馈和水汽反馈是气候系统呈现多平衡态结构的主要因素,是气候变化复杂性根源,而云放射率反馈对系统结构的影响,只有在强烈的水汽放射率反馈条件下才表现明显。较强的地表反照率反馈和水汽放射率反馈,均可在太阳常数仅有微小变化时就能导致全球气候突变。 相似文献
5.
建立一个包含年平均二氧化碳含量「CO2」、下垫面温度、边界层气温以及云量的零气候模式,用于研究CO2对气候的影响,结果表明,该模式能模拟出现代气候态以及「CO2」变化的趋势。进而用与该模式相应的现代气候平衡态的偏差方程,考察了在CO2的作用下,气候系统由定常态到周期态再到混沌态的演变过程。 相似文献
6.
极冰气候效应的数值试验 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用一个大气环流模式(AGCM)和一个全球耦合海气模式(COAGCM),模拟了北极海冰边界范围的变化对月平均气候的影响。结果表明,极冰边缘的异常完全可以改变中高纬度某些地区的局地气候。受冷源的影响,北半球中高纬度冷高压加强,低纬度暖高压减弱。同时利用一个全球三维大气环流模式,作了海冰反照率参数化的数值试验,用两种不同的海冰反照率参数化方案,检验对地表面温度、海平面气压、极地表面对太阳辐射吸收的影响。模拟试验表明了冰雪圈反照率的反馈作用,对气候变化的影响十分重要。 相似文献
7.
8.
中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测系统的改进及其对1998年全国汛期旱涝形势的预测 总被引:26,自引:9,他引:26
通过引入改善了地表反照率参数化方案的中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP)大气环流模式,我们对IAP短期气候距平预测系统(IAPPSSCA)中的大气模式部分进行了改进。利用改进前后的IAPPSSCA,我们对1980~1994共15年中国夏季降水异常进行了集合预报检验,与实测结果比较表明,改进后的IAPPSSCA对江淮和华南地区的预报技巧与原先的系统相比只是有略微的提高,但对我国东北、华北、河套区域以及整个中国东部的预报技巧则比原系统有较大程度的提高,从而表明气候模式中陆面过程的正确表述可以提高模式气候预测的能力。利用改进的IAPPSSCA和IAPENSO预测系统提供的预测海温距平,我们对1998年中国夏季降水异常进行了预报(该预测3月份提供给有关单位)。今与实际情况比较表明,改进了的IAPPSSCA和IAPENSO预测系统耦合,对1998我国夏季旱涝形势的预测与实测基本相符,但强度较小,说明有一定预报能力,但也还有许多问题。 相似文献
9.
10.
用IAP/LASG GOALS模式模拟CO_2增加引起的东亚地区气候变化(英文) 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
用一个全球耦合的海洋──大气──陆地系统模式(IAP/ LASG GOALS)研究因 CO2增加引起的全球增暖,重点是讨论东亚地区气候变化。完成了两个试验,一个是CO2含量保持不变的对照试验,一个是CO2浓度按每年10%增加的扰动试验。结果表明,在对照试验中没有出现气候漂移,在CO2含量加倍时全球平均地面气温将增加1.65℃。GOALS模式能较好模拟观测的东亚温度和降水的空间分体和年循环,但模拟的年平均温度略偏低、年降水稍偏大。在CO2含量加倍时,东亚地区温度和降水将分别增加2.1℃和5%,最大增温出现在中纬度大陆上,最大的降水增加出现在25°N附近。 相似文献
11.
12.
Gianni Matteucci 《Climate Dynamics》1989,3(4):179-190
Applying a number of simplifying assumptions, we have used a zero-dimensional energy balance climate model (EBM) of the Budyko-Sellers type to investigate the degree to which the climatic variability of the Late Pleistocene can be explained by the mechanism of stochastic resonance. As a logical extension of an earlier version of this model we have included a more complete representation for the orbital forcings to show that a reasonably good agreement with the paleoclimatic record can be obtained. This zerodimensional EBM is appealing because of its simplicity and its ability to reproduce some of the most striking qualitative features of the observed climatic variability with a very limited number of parameters, several of which can be derived from either the observations or general circulation model (GCM) simulations of ice-age conditions. 相似文献
13.
利用文献[4],本文求出了考虑海气耦合时零维模式的平衡态,讨论了它们的稳定性和现代气候的敏感性问题。 结果表明:气候系统存在三个平衡态,两个稳定态分别表示冰期和间冰期气候;当考虑海气作用时,现代气候条件下的敏感性比不考虑海气作用时小,外参数变化为1%,温度平均变化为1°K左右。 在此基础上,就随机模式的反馈系数提出了不同的看法,对随机分析作了简略探讨,并用实际资料进行了检验。 相似文献
14.
Isabella Bordi Klaus Fraedrich Alfonso Sutera Xiuhua Zhu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,109(1-2):245-252
A change in CO2 concentration induces a direct radiative forcing that modifies the planetary thermodynamic state, and hence the surface temperature. The infrared cooling, by assuming a constant temperature lapse-rate during the process, will be related to the surface temperature through the Stefan–Boltzmann law in a ratio proportional to the new infrared opacity. Other indirect effects, such as the water vapor and ice-albedo feedbacks, may amplify the system response. In the present paper, we address the question of how a global climate model with a mixed layer ocean responds to different rates of change of a well-mixed greenhouse gas such as CO2. We provide evidence that different rates of CO2 variation may lead to similar transient climates characterized by the same global mean surface temperature but different values of CO2 concentration. Moreover, it is shown that, far from the bifurcation points, the model’s climate depends on the history of the radiative forcing displaying a hysteresis cycle that is neither static nor dynamical, but is related to the memory response of the model. Results are supported by the solutions of a zero-dimensional energy balance model. 相似文献
15.
农作物产量灾害损失评估业务化方法研究 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
介绍了农作物产量灾害损失评估业务化方法。该方法采用新的求解趋势产量的方法获得农作物产量受灾损失率,用区域内多个代表站的资料进行全区灾害损失的估算,扩大了样本容量。在单灾种评估中考虑作物敏感性和气候脆弱性,在综合灾损评估中增加灾害的重要度权重因素。经验证,估算精度可满足业务应用需求,在业务服务中可行实用。 相似文献
16.
We use the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM to investigate the transition from the present-day
climate to a modern Snowball Earth, defined as the Earth in modern geography with complete sea-ice cover. Starting from the
present-day climate and applying an abrupt decrease of total solar irradiance (TSI) we find that the critical TSI marking
the Snowball Earth bifurcation point is between 91 and 94% of the present-day TSI. The Snowball Earth bifurcation point as
well as the transition times are well reproduced by a zero-dimensional energy balance model of the mean ocean potential temperature.
During the transition, the asymmetric distribution of continents between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere causes heat
transports toward the more water-covered Southern Hemisphere. This is accompanied by an intensification of the southern Hadley
cell and the wind-driven subtropical ocean cells by a factor of 4. If we set back TSI to 100% shortly before the transition
to a modern Snowball Earth is completed, a narrow band of open equatorial water is sufficient for rapid melting. This implies
that for 100% TSI the point of unstoppable glaciation separating partial from complete sea-ice cover is much closer to complete
sea-ice cover than in classical energy balance models. Stable states can have no greater than 56.6% sea-ice cover implying
that ECHAM5/MPI-OM does not exhibit stable states with near-complete sea-ice cover but open equatorial waters. 相似文献
17.
青藏高原地区大气辐射加热场的季节变化 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:5
本文利用美国犹他大学系新近发展的辐射和云参数化模式对青藏高原地区甘孜、那曲、拉萨三站及东部平原地区的南京1982年8月-1983年7月的辐通量和大气加热率进行了计算,分析研究了高原地区大气辐射场的季节变化特征及其与气候的关系,并对一些主要的影响因子进行了简要的讨论。 相似文献
18.
Peter Fong 《Climatic change》1982,4(2):199-206
A dynamical energy balance model is developed including both latent heat and sensible heat exchanges. It is applied to reconstructing
the history of the changes of the icesheet mass and the ocean surface temperature over an ice age. The zero-dimensional model
is extended to include three-dimensional information of the icesheets by assuming a specific geometric shape of the icesheets.
The ice-albedo feedback can then be calculated and, at the same time, the cryosphere interaction is introduced into the climate
model. The advancing of the glaciers and the cooling of the oceans in a glacial period can be accounted for by the differential
equations of the dynamic system if an external perturbation in the form of any energy deficit of 0.13% of the insolation is
imposed. The earth orbital changes generate a heat deficit of this magnitude due to the change of the eccentricity and have
the same periodicity of 100 000 years as the major glacial cycles. Therefore they could well be the origin of the Pleistocene
ice ages.
Editor's Note: This note generated strong, but mixed, reactions from three referees. Its conclusions should thus be weighed
carefully. It is published despite the cautionary reviews in order to spur debate on the large remaining uncertainties over
the causes of Pleistocene glacial cycles. 相似文献
19.
J. Ray Bates 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(3-4):455-473
A theoretical investigation of climate stability and sensitivity is carried out using three simple linearized models based on the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget. The simplest is the zero-dimensional model (ZDM) commonly used as a conceptual basis for climate sensitivity and feedback studies. The others are two-zone models with tropics and extratropics of equal area; in the first of these (Model A), the dynamical heat transport (DHT) between the zones is implicit, in the second (Model B) it is explicitly parameterized. It is found that the stability and sensitivity properties of the ZDM and Model A are very similar, both depending only on the global-mean radiative response coefficient and the global-mean forcing. The corresponding properties of Model B are more complex, depending asymmetrically on the separate tropical and extratropical values of these quantities, as well as on the DHT coefficient. Adopting Model B as a benchmark, conditions are found under which the validity of the ZDM and Model A as climate sensitivity models holds. It is shown that parameter ranges of physical interest exist for which such validity may not hold. The 2?×?CO2 sensitivities of the simple models are studied and compared. Possible implications of the results for sensitivities derived from GCMs and palaeoclimate data are suggested. Sensitivities for more general scenarios that include negative forcing in the tropics (due to aerosols, inadvertent or geoengineered) are also studied. Some unexpected outcomes are found in this case. These include the possibility of a negative global-mean temperature response to a positive global-mean forcing, and vice versa. 相似文献