2008年三峡水库入库洪水特点与预报效果评价

对2008年三峡水库入库洪水特点进行分析,并针对场次洪水和连续自动预报两种方式进行预报误差统计,两种方式预报结果都表明2008年实时联机水文预报精度达到水文情报预报规范的甲级标准,同时发现未来降雨对三峡水库入库预报精度影响较大,部分场次洪水结合(不结合)未来降雨的预报精度差别很大,且随着预见期增长,预报误差也加大。     

BP神经网络洪水预报模型在洪水预报系统中的应用

采用相关分析法,在区域降水、观测断面流量(或水位)因子中识别出影响预报断面径流过程的主要变量,在多个观测断面的数据均为流量情况下,采用基于时延组合的合成流量为影响预报断面径流过程的变量,采用自相关分析法,识别出影响预报断面径流过程的前期流量(或水位),以这些变量为BP神经网络模型的输入,以预报断面的流量(或水位)为模型的输出,在BP神经网络隐层节点数自动优选的基础上,构建了基于BP神经网络的洪水预报模型。将模型载入中国洪水预报系统中,应用结果表明:模型在历史洪水训练样本具有一定代表性的情况下,可获得较高的预报精度。     

交互式洪水预报系统及其在淮河流域中的应用

随着计算机技术的发展,图形用户界面在联机洪水作业预报中的应用越来越广泛,为实现专家交互式洪水预报提供了可能。本文简要描述了在美国天气局河流预报系统和交互式预报程序基础上建立起来的交互式洪水预报系统,介绍了淮河流域洪水的专家交互预报模式,指出了现有系统中存在的不足及其发展方向。     

安砂水电厂洪水预报自动化系统

安砂水电厂洪水预报自动化系统张初旺（福建省安砂水电厂）安砂水电厂位于福建省闽江流域沙溪水系主要支流九龙溪的中游末端，水库坝址以Ｌ集水面积５１８４ｋｍ’，水库正常高水位２６５００ｍ，相应库容为６．４亿ｍ’。流域气候温和湿润，雨量充沛，每年４—６月为主汛...     

中国洪水预报系统设计建设研究

分析了我国洪水预报系统的现状,阐述了中国洪水预报系统的建设的必要性、目标及开发原则,介绍了中国洪水预报系统的软硬件环境、预报模型和方法、预报方案、模型率定、实时作业预报、实用模块、系统管理7部分的设计建设。     

双牌水库洪水预报及调度自动化系统研究

根据双牌水库水情自动测报系统要求,结合该水库的流域和工程特性,应用新安江模型、ＡＰＩ模型及动态规划等,对该水库洪水预报及调度进行了系统研究。     

淮河干流洪水预报系统及其在1991年大洪水的应用

综述了淮河流域概况，淮河干流洪水预报系统物采用的预报方法。１９９１年淮河干流洪水预报采用了降雨径流预报与上，下游站相应流量预防方法相配合，并注重实时水情分析；在行洪区多，行洪后水面宽广而比降又极小的河段的汇流计算，采用了以实测洪水资料绘制的经验蓄曲线为充分发挥的湖泊洪水演算方法。     

交互式洪水预报系统及关键技术研究

介绍了交互式洪水预报系统的概念和基本结构，分析了实现交互式预报的区域拓扑连接、作业表、模型参数优化、交互修正等关键技术，并以淮河交互式洪水预报系统为例，阐述了系统的组成、实时作业预报的数据流程和应用成果。在分析我国暴雨洪水特性和自然地理条件的基础上，指出了在我国开发交互式洪水预报系统的必要性和应该注意的几个主要问题。     

SI数据采集系统简介

经过20多年的实践,煤炭系统已能较好地实现落差≥5m断层、煤层5m起伏的二、三维地震勘探.受大道距（10～20m）、多组合、高频（60Hz、100Hz）检波器的幅频响应、狭长的束状观测系统、炮检方位角变化引起频率降低等因素的影响,极大地约束了分辨率的进一步提高.SI地震数据采集系统,以小道距、不组合、单点宽频数字检波器接收,无采集站的宽频带、高密度、高保真度、高精度的数据采集方法等独有特点,可在更大范围内提高垂向、横向分辨率,探测落差≤5m的断层、控制直径≤15m陷落柱等微小地质构造,适应煤矿回采的要求.     

美国印第安纳州宾夕法尼亚系含煤地层和煤层简介

美国中部伊利诺伊煤田(跨伊利诺伊、印第安纳、肯塔基等三个州)的含煤地层为上石炭统宾夕法尼亚系。美国印第安纳地质研究所2006年编制的印第安纳州基岩综合地层柱状图建立了宾夕法尼亚系含煤地层的岩相层序,现将此岩相层序介绍到国内,对我们了解美国晚古生代煤田地质及阅读国外文献资料颇有帮助。     

Concept for a Web-based Information System for Flood Management

Recent emergency flood situations at European rivers have revealed the demand for better and in-time information for citizens in flood prone areas about flood development, as well as better coordination of resources and actions during pre-flood phases and its critical stage. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has a large potential to improve the situation. Decisions may be supported by information about resources available at the region and national level, by information about means and access to critical locations at the prevention as well as the evacuation phases, and by including citizens as well as managers into one common information and communication process. The paper outlines the potential of ICT for these aspects.     

长江中游洞庭湖防洪系统水流模拟——Ⅱ．模型实现和率定检验

在长江中游洞庭湖防洪系统水流模拟模型的建模思路和基本算法的基础上,侧重讨论建模过程中遇到的内、外边界条件的特殊处理、洪水实时预报校正模型的应用、资料处理和模型数据的拟定等重要环节,强调了有关处理及其与模型基本算法的磨合在复杂水流模型中的重要作用.采用80年代两场实测洪水对所建模型进行了率定和检验.结果表明,所建模型清晰地重现了长江中游--洞庭湖区的洪水动态演进过程,得到了总体趋势合理的水位分布和流速或流量分布;模拟的控制站水位、流量过程与实况比较,峰谷完全对应,过程吻合良好,精度满足防洪预报和分析的要求,能够较好地模拟洪水波在这样复杂水系中的水流特征.     

September 2004 Flood Event in Southwestern Bangladesh: A Study of its Nature,Causes, and Human Perception and Adjustments to a New Hazard

This paper examines the nature and causes of September 2004 hazardous flood that affected the dry and drought prone southwestern region of Bangladesh. It also examines human perception of this new hazard and their methods of adjustments to its negative impacts. Field research for this study includes personal interviews of 453 victim families living in four thanas (lowest administrative units) in Jessore and Satkhira districts of southwestern Bangladesh. Findings of the study suggest that all victim respondents viewed this flood event as a natural hazard, which has caused severe damage to standing crops, fish ponds, permanent trees and homesteads, and deteriorated human health and sanitation conditions. Its long-term impacts on fish farming, soil quality degradation, as well as changing land use/land coverage are also noteworthy but yet to be adequately explored. Both perceived and scientific causes of this flood event include high rainfall for a week before the flood, unusual movement of low pressure system into the affected area, cloudy weather and low evaporation, siltation of the regional riverbeds, and rolling back of the Ganges River water through the Ichamati and Bhagirati rivers. These factors also caused hazardous flooding at the same time in the Ichamati and Bhagirati Rivers and their floodplains in the West Bengal province of India. To release the overflow of flood water inside India, the Indian border patrol breached the Ichamati river embankment in several places along Satkhira and Jessore international border which had aggravated the flood situation in the study area.     

基于微电子系统（MEMS）加速度地震勘探三分量数字检波器简介

基于微电子机械系统（MEMS）制成的微加速度三分量数字地震检波器。集数据采集、处理及传输功能干一体，在结构模型、工作原理、性能指标控制等方面不同于常规检波器，其信号幅值在低于自然频率范围内没有衰减。因其独特的制造技术，MEMS检波器具有超低噪声，大动态范围和极高的向量保真度性能。     

A Brief Introduction to Deep-Water Mass-Transport Complexes: Structures,Genetic Classifications and Identification Methods

Mass-Transport Complexes (MTCs) are important components of deep-water systems, and widely distributed in continental margins and lake basins. Understanding MTCs is helpful for expanding the targets of deep-water hydrocarbon exploration and for evaluating geological risks of subsea engineering. Typical MTCs consist of three parts: the head tension area, body slip area, and toe compression area. During the transportation of MTCs, these three domains come into being successively. MTCs can be classified into three types: slide rock, slump rock, and debris rock, based on the sediment transport process and fluid properties, and they respectively correspond to elastic deformation, elastic and plastic deformation and plastic deformation stages. In 3D seismic plan, according to the direction of sediment flow (the slope direction), some depositional elements of MTCs, such as head cliffs, body folds, and toe squeeze ridges, can be clearly identified in proper order, and in seismic profiles MTCs are characterized by weak-medium amplitude reflections, mound-like shapes, and irregular top/bottom interfaces. In conventional log data, MTCs are commonly responded as abrupt shifts at their top/bottom interfaces. In outcrop data, MTCs have several kinds of sedimentary structures, such as massive textures, sliding folds, and mud lumps. Compared with turbidites, MTCs have many distinct characteristics. For example, MTCs are deposited from sediments transported through a "frozen" manner and have an "elongate-fan-like" slope morphology, a relative large thickness. Furthermore, MTCs can be characterized by no obvious features of grading differentiation and relatively large stratigraphic dips.     

Far-Field Tsunami Potential and a Real-Time Forecast System for the Pacific Using the Inversion Method

Estimating tsunami potential is anessential part of mitigating tsunami disasters. Weproposed a new method to estimate the far-fieldtsunami potential by assuming faultmodels on the Pacific Rim. We find thata tsunami that generates in the areas wherethere is no tsunami in the history can damagethe Japanese coast. This shows that it isimportant to estimate tsunami potential byassuming fault models other than the pastearthquake data.Another important activity to mitigate tsunamidisasters is to provide appropriatewarnings to coastal communities when dangerfrom a tsunami is imminent. We applied anew inversion method using wavelet transformto a part of the real-time tsunami forecastsystem for the Pacific. Because this inversionmethod does not require fault location, it ispossible to analyze a tsunami in real timewithout all seismic information. In order tocheck the usability of the system, anumerical simulation was executed assuming anearthquake at sea off Taiwan. The correlationcoefficient for the estimated initialwaveform to the assumed one was calculatedto be 0.78. It takes 90 min to capturetime-series waveform data from tsunamigauges and 5 sec to estimate the 2-D initialwaveform using the inversion method. After that,it takes 2 minutes to forecast thetsunami heights at the Japanese coast. Since thesum of these times is less than the 105minutes transit time of the tsunami fromTaiwan to Japan, it is possible to give a warningto the residents before the tsunami attacksthe Japanese coast. Comparing the tsunamiheights forecasted by this system with thosecalculated by the fault model, the averageerror was 0.39 m. The average error ofthe arrival time was 0.007 min.     

Sampling Strategies for Uncertainty Reduction in Categorical Random Fields: Formulation,Mathematical Analysis and Application to Multiple-Point Simulations

Mathematical Geosciences - The task of optimal sampling for the statistical simulation of a discrete random field is addressed from the perspective of minimizing the posterior uncertainty of...     

加快国有企业产权制度改革建设具有国际竞争力的新型企业集团

北京建工集团是一个有着五十多年历史的特大型国有建筑企业。近几年，北京建工集团有限责任公司坚持以发展为第一要务，大力推进以产权制度为核心的经济结构调整，促进了集团的发展，呈现出良好的发展势头。主要经济技术指标打破了徘徊局面，连续四年以20％左右的增长幅度创出历史新高。