Combining field and modelling techniques to assess rockfall dynamics on a protection forest hillslope in the European Alps

Adequate management of a mountain forest that protects downslope areas against impacts of rockfall requires insight into the dynamics of the hillslope environment. Therefore, we applied a combined approach, using field and modelling techniques, to assess the determining factors for rockfall source areas, rockfall tracks and rockfall runout zones on a forested slope in mountainous terrain. The first objective of this study was to understand why rockfall occurs in the study area. The second objective was to translate the knowledge obtained in the field into a model that simulates rockfall dynamics on a forested slope realistically. The third objective was to assess which hillslope characteristics primarily determine the distribution of active rockfall tracks. To achieve these objectives, we made a geomorphological map of the whole study area, and we measured the major discontinuity planes in the bedrock that are exposed in the rockfall source areas. Furthermore, a test site for simulation modelling within the larger study area was defined in which both a forest and a hillslope inventory were carried out. The available data and our developed rockfall simulation model allowed us to assess the slope characteristics that mainly determine the distribution of areas affected by rockfall. We found that in decreasing order of importance, both standing and felled trees, the surface roughness and rockfall resistant shrubs primarily determine the distribution of rockfall-affected areas. Simulation tests without a forest cover produced similar rockfall runout zones as fossil rockfall events identified in the field. We believe that the combined field and modelling approach is a prerequisite for understanding how forests can protect against rockfall.     

Assessment of rockfall susceptibility by integrating statistical and physically-based approaches

In Val di Fassa (Dolomites, Eastern Italian Alps) rockfalls constitute the most significant gravity-induced natural disaster that threatens both the inhabitants of the valley, who are few, and the thousands of tourists who populate the area in summer and winter.To assess rockfall susceptibility, we developed an integrated statistical and physically-based approach that aimed to predict both the susceptibility to onset and the probability that rockfalls will attain specific reaches. Through field checks and multi-temporal aerial photo-interpretation, we prepared a detailed inventory of both rockfall source areas and associated scree-slope deposits. Using an innovative technique based on GIS tools and a 3D rockfall simulation code, grid cells pertaining to the rockfall source-area polygons were classified as active or inactive, based on the state of activity of the associated scree-slope deposits. The simulation code allows one to link each source grid cell with scree deposit polygons by calculating the trajectory of each simulated launch of blocks. By means of discriminant analysis, we then identified the mix of environmental variables that best identifies grid cells with low or high susceptibility to rockfalls. Among these variables, structural setting, land use, and morphology were the most important factors that led to the initiation of rockfalls.We developed 3D simulation models of the runout distance, intensity and frequency of rockfalls, whose source grid cells corresponded either to the geomorphologically-defined source polygons (geomorphological scenario) or to study area grid cells with slope angle greater than an empirically-defined value of 37° (empirical scenario). For each scenario, we assigned to the source grid cells an either fixed or variable onset susceptibility; the latter was derived from the discriminant model group (active/inactive) membership probabilities.Comparison of these four models indicates that the geomorphological scenario with variable onset susceptibility appears to be the most realistic model. Nevertheless, political and legal issues seem to guide local administrators, who tend to select the more conservative empirically-based scenario as a land-planning tool.     

基于Web Geocoding的三维GIS快速定位方法研究

三维GIS技术已经逐渐发展成熟,其对客观世界的表达能给人以更真实的感受,然而三维GIS软件所需数据是海量的。由于遥感技术的发展,纹理数据的获取和处理已经变得容易和快速,而对于矢量数据的采集、存储是一个非常艰巨的工作,如何在短期内获取海量、精确的矢量地理信息数据,减少数据采集的费用和时间成了一大难题。通过基于网络的地理编码来查询获取矢量点状地理信息,将地理信息存储到本地数据库,并且将数据应用到系统中进行快速定位显示,实现地理位置的实时定位和查询,为各种专题三维GIS软件开发提供服务和扩展功能。     

TOWARDS A UNIFORM CONCEPT FOR THE COMPARISON AND EXTRAPOLATION OF ROCKWALL RETREAT AND ROCKFALL SUPPLY

Rates of rockwall retreat and rockfall supply are fundamental components of sediment budgets in steep environments. However, the standard procedure of referencing rockwall retreat rates using only lithology is inconsistent with research findings and results in a variability that exceeds three orders of magnitude. The concept proposed in this paper argues that the complexity inherent in rockfall studies can be reduced if the stages of (i) backweathering, (ii) filling and depletion of intermediate storage on the rock face and (iii) final rockfall supply onto the talus slopes are separated as these have different response functions and controlling factors. Backweathering responds to preweathering and weathering conditions whereas the filling and depletion of intermediate storage in the rock face is mainly a function of internal and external triggers. The noise apparent in backweathering rates and rockfall supply can be reduced by integrating the relevant controlling factors in the response functions. Simple conceptual models for the three stages are developed and are linked by a time‐dependent ‘rockfall delivery rate’, which is defined as the difference between backweathering and rockfall supply, thus reflecting the specific importance of intermediate storage in the rock face. Existing studies can be characterized according to their ‘rockfall delivery ratio’, a concept similar to the ‘sediment delivery ratio’ used in fluvial geomorphology. Their outputs can be qualified as trigger‐dependent rockfall supply rates or backweathering rates dependent on (pre‐)weathering conditions. It is shown that the existing quantitative backweathering and rockfall supply models implicitly follow the proposed conceptual models and can be accommodated into the uniform model. Suggestions are made for how best to incorporate non‐linearities, phase transitions, path dependencies and different timescales into rockfall response functions.     

Spatial and temporal rockfall activity in a forest stand in the Swiss Prealps—A dendrogeomorphological case study

Rockfall is a major threat to settlements and transportation routes in large parts of the Alps. While protective forest stands in many locations undoubtedly reduce rockfall risk, little is known about the exact frequency and spatial distribution of rockfall activity in a given place or about how these parameters can be assessed. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to reconstruct rockfall events with dendrogeomorphological methods and to analyse the spatial and temporal rockfall activity in a subalpine forest stand. The study site is located in the transit zone of frequently passing, rather small rockfall fragments (mean diameter of 10 to 20 cm). In all, 33 stem discs from previously felled Picea abies trees found at the foot of Schwarzenberg in Diemtigtal (Swiss Prealps) were sampled, and a total number of 301 rockfall events were dated to between A.D. 1724 and 2002.Results showed that the spatial distribution of rockfall changed slightly with time, and that rockfall activity increased considerably over the last century. In contrast, rockfall magnitude presumably remained on a comparable level. The seasonal occurrence of rockfall showed a clear peak during the dormant season of trees, most probably in early spring. Furthermore, on a 10-year moving average basis, rockfall rates were positively correlated with mean annual as well as summer and winter temperatures. This means that higher temperatures resulted in increased rockfall activity. On the other hand, no correlation with annual or seasonal precipitation totals was revealed. Overall, this study provides an appropriate method for the detailed assessment of spatial and temporal variations in rockfall activity in a given place.     

Stone pillar rockfall in Danxia landform area,Mt. Langshan,Hunan Province,China

A typical Danxia stone pillar, Leipishi I, in the World Natural Heritage site at Mt. Langshan, China, collapsed on 2 November 2009. To understand the mechanism controlling this rockfall event, uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, resistance against sulfuric acid, and freezing and thawing properties were analyzed from 44 sandstone and conglomerate cores collected from the Lanlong Formation, the only exposed formation on Mt. Langshan. In addition, four rock slices were created for analysis under a polarizing microscope. A detailed reconstruction of the geometry and restraint conditions of the stone pillar in place before the rockfall occurred permitted an estimation of the stress state before collapse using 3D finite-element code. The results show that the rapid retreat of soft, intercalated rock layers due to weathering can profoundly change the stress state within the rock body, causing compressive or tensile stresses to rise above compressive or tensile strengths in specific sections of a rock body, and causing partial or complete collapse.     

Rockfall in the Port Hills of Christchurch: Seismic and non‐seismic fatality risk on roads

Numerous rockfalls released during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence affected vital road sections for local commuters. We quantified rockfall fatality risk on two main routes by adapting a risk approach for roads originally developed for snow avalanche risk. We present results of the collective and individual fatality risks for traffic flow and waiting traffic. Waiting traffic scenarios particularly address the critical spatial‐temporal dynamics of risk, which should be acknowledged in operational risk management. Comparing our results with other risks commonly experienced in New Zealand indicates that local rockfall risk is close to tolerability thresholds and likely exceeds acceptable risk.     

A 3D multi-threshold,region-growing algorithm for identifying dust storm features from model simulations

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property, and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecast models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. These simulation outputs are in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation, and time) and represent spatially heterogeneous dust storm features and their evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing-based algorithm to identify critical dust storm features from 3D dust storm simulations. A multi-threshold scheme is defined for the identification of dust storm features with different dust concentrations. Based on the multi-thresholds, dust storm features are iteratively identified by developing a region-growing algorithm that splits a clustered dust storm feature into multiple sub-features. The proposed approach is compared with three commonly used methods in image processing and thunderstorm identification. The proposed approach outperforms the other three methods in sensitivity and quantitative/qualitative accuracy. This research approach may also be slightly adjusted to identify critical 3D features from simulation outputs for other severe weather and geographical phenomena.     

A heuristic cellular automata approach for modelling urban land-use change based on simulated annealing

This article presents a novel cellular automata (CA) approach to simulate the spatio-temporal process of urban land-use change based on the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm. The SA algorithm enables dynamic optimisation of the CA's transition rules that would otherwise be difficult to configure using conventional mathematical methods. In this heuristic approach, an objective function is constructed based on a theoretical accumulative disagreement between the simulated land-use pattern and the actual land-use pattern derived from remotely sensed imagery. The function value that measures the mismatch between the actual and the simulated land-use patterns would be minimised randomly through the SA process. Hence, a set of attribution parameters that can be used in the CA model is achieved. An SA optimisation tool was developed using Matlab and incorporated into the cellular simulation in GIS to form an integrated SACA model. An application of the SACA model to simulate the spatio-temporal process of land-use change in Jinshan District of Shanghai Municipality, PR China, from 1992 to 2008 shows that this modelling approach is efficient and robust and can be used to reconstruct historical urban land-use patterns to assist with urban planning policy-making and actions. Comparison of the SACA model with a typical CA model based on a logistic regression method without the SA optimisation (also known as LogCA) shows that the SACA model generates better simulation results than the LogCA model, and the improvement of the SACA over the LogCA model is largely attributed to higher locational accuracy, a feature desirable in most spatially explicit simulations of geographical processes.     

Evaluating the suitability of TRMM satellite rainfall data for hydrological simulation using a distributed hydrological model in the Weihe River catchment in China

The objective of this study is to quantitatively evaluate Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data with rain gauge data and further to use this TRMM data to drive a Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (DTVGM) to perform hydrological simulations in the semi-humid Weihe River catchment in China. Before the simulations, a comparison with a 10-year (2001-2010) daily rain gauge data set reveals that, at daily time step, TRMM rainfall data are better at capturing rain occurrence and mean values than rainfall extremes. On a monthly time scale, good linear relationships between TRMM and rain gauge rainfall data are found, with determination coefficients R² varying between 0.78 and 0.89 for the individual stations. Subsequent simulation results of seven years (2001-2007) of data on daily hydrological processes confirm that the DTVGM when calibrated by rain gauge data performs better than when calibrated by TRMM data, but the performance of the simulation driven by TRMM data is better than that driven by gauge data on a monthly time scale. The results thus suggest that TRMM rainfall data are more suitable for monthly streamflow simulation in the study area, and that, when the effects of recalibration and the results for water balance components are also taken into account, the TRMM 3B42-V7 product has the potential to perform well in similar basins.     

Reservoir Characterization of McMurray Formation by 2D Geostatistical Modeling

There is a need to estimate reserve uncertainty for large lease areas. Detailed 3D models of heterogeneity are not necessarily required, but there is a need to integrate all available data into an in-situ reserve estimate with uncertainty. A 2D mapping approach is presented to appraise reserves accounting for multiple variables, multiple data sources, and uncertainty. The approach can be considered in three primary steps: (1) Bayesian updating is used to determine local distributions of uncertainty for each primary variable while integrating multiple secondary information, (2) matrix simulation is employed to jointly and simultaneously simulate multiple collocated variables to determine a derived variable such as OOIP, and (3) probability field simulation then is applied to permit joint simulation of multiple locations. This methodology permits local and global uncertainty assessment while integrating multiple sources of information. An application to the McMurray Formation in Alberta, Canada is demonstrated.     

南极航空地球物理调查GPS数据后处理方法试验

监测和预测冰盖的行为和演化趋势对于研究未来全球气候及海平面变化具有重要的科学意义。地球物理探测成为极地现场考察中最重要的技术手段并取得巨大成功,而航空地球物理的独特优势成为极地科考最有发展潜力的研究方向。经过多年努力,中国成为第4个拥有极地航空地球物理科学考察能力的国家,并在中国第32次南极考察期间完成东南极伊丽莎白公主地(PEL)数千平方千米的航空地球物理探测任务。对于航空地球物理勘探而言,航空测点定位是首要而基础性的工作,本文针对航空地球物理测量中GPS定位数据后处理工作目标,通过一系列的方法和软件对比试验,评价GPS后处理精度误差和应用效果,在试验基础上开发相应的软件完成GPS数据和各地球物理方法数据的匹配连接,进而总结极地航空地球物理GPS数据后处理工作流程,形成实用化的极地航空地球物理GPS数据后处理方案,对后续工作具有指导意义。     

Simulating three-dimensional seismograms in 2.5-dimensional structures by combining two-dimensional finite difference modelling and ray tracing

Finite difference (FD) simulation of elastic wave propagation is an important tool in geophysical research. As large-scale 3-D simulations are only feasible on supercomputers or clusters, and even then the simulations are limited to long periods compared to the model size, 2-D FD simulations are widespread. Whereas in generally 3-D heterogeneous structures it is not possible to infer the correct amplitude and waveform from 2-D simulations, in 2.5-D heterogeneous structures some inferences are possible. In particular, Vidale & Helmberger developed an approach that simulates 3-D waveforms using 2-D FD experiments only. However, their method requires a special FD source implementation technique that is based on a source definition which is not any longer used in nowadays FD codes. In this paper, we derive a conversion between 2-D and 3-D Green tensors that allows us to simulate 3-D displacement seismograms using 2-D FD simulations and the actual ray path determined in the geometrical optic limit. We give the conversion for a source of a certain seismic moment that is implemented by incrementing the components of the stress tensor.
Therefore, we present a hybrid modelling procedure involving 2-D FD and kinematic ray-tracing techniques. The applicability is demonstrated by numerical experiments of elastic wave propagation for models of different complexity.     

Towards generating highly detailed 3D CityGML models from OpenStreetMap

About one decade has passed since US vice president Al Gore articulated his vision of Digital Earth (DE). Within this decade, a global multi-resolution and three-dimensional (3D) representation of the Earth, which sums up the DE vision, increasingly gained interest in both public and science. Due to the desired high resolution of the available data, highly detailed 3D city models comprise a huge part of DE and they are becoming an essential and useful tool for a range of different applications. In the past as well as at present, 3D models normally come from a range of different sources generated by professionals, such as laser scans or photogrammetry combined with 2D cadaster data. Some models are generated with semi-automated or fully automated approaches, but in most cases manual fine tuning or even manual construction from architectural plans is required. Further beyond outdoor city models, DE additionally envisages the provision of indoor information. That is, the interior structure of public or publically accessible buildings, such as airports or shopping malls, is represented and made available in 3D; however, at the moment, such models are mostly created by hand and essentially based on professional data sources. In contrast to such professional data, which is mainly captured by surveyors or companies, the last few years revealed the phenomenon of crowdsourced geodata, which receives an increasing attractiveness as an alternative data source for many Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Former research already demonstrated the power and richness of such geodata – especially OpenStreetMap (OSM) – and it has also been proved that this non-standardized, crowdsourced geodata can be combined with international standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). For example, CityGML Level-of-Detail 1 (LoD1) and LoD2 models have already been created automatically from OSM. The research presented in this article will further continue on the automated generation of CityGML models from OpenStreetMap. Essentially, a method for the creation of highly detailed CityGML LoD4 models with interior structures will be explained. By applying the invented approach on existing OSM data, limitations and restrictions of the IndoorOSM mapping proposal, the available data and the developed approach are revealed and discussed.     

数字拓扑研究现状及其在GIS中的应用

数字拓扑主要研究栅格空间中离散几何对象的拓扑性质,这些性质在GIS空间分析和栅格数据处理中非常重要。该文从图论、混合拓扑和公理型3方面对数字拓扑的研究现状进行了分类和综述,并讨论数字拓扑在GIS领域的应用,指出三维数字拓扑和球面数字拓扑是数字拓扑在GIS中的两个发展趋势和研究热点。     

Influence of complex topography on global solar radiation in the Yangtze River Basin

Global solar radiation（GSR） is the most direct source and form of global energy, and calculation of its quantity is highly complex due to influences of local topography and terrain inter-shielding. Digital elevation model（DEM） data as a representation of the complex terrain and multiplicity condition produces a series of topographic factors（e.g. slope, aspect, etc.）. Based on 1 km resolution DEM data, meteorological observations and NOAA-AVHRR remote sensing data, a distributed model for the calculation of GSR over rugged terrain within the Yangtze River Basin has been developed. The overarching model permits calculation of astronomical solar radiation for rugged topography and comprises a distributed direct solar radiation model, a distributed diffuse radiation model and a distributed terrain reflectance radiation model. Using the developed model, a quantitative simulation of the GSR space distribution and visualization has been undertaken, with results subsequently analyzed with respect to locality and terrain. Analyses suggest that GSR magnitude is seasonally affected, while the degree of influence was found to increase in concurrence with increasing altitude. Moreover, GSR magnitude exhibited clear spatial variation with respect to the dominant local aspect; GSR values associated with the sunny southern slopes were significantly greater than those associated with shaded slopes. Error analysis indicates a mean absolute error of 12.983 MJm-2 and a mean relative error of 3.608%, while the results based on a site authentication procedure display an absolute error of 22.621 MJm-2 and a relative error of 4.626%.     

复杂地形对长江流域太阳总辐射的影响(英文)

Global solar radiation(GSR) is the most direct source and form of global energy, and calculation of its quantity is highly complex due to influences of local topography and terrain inter-shielding. Digital elevation model(DEM) data as a representation of the complex terrain and multiplicity condition produces a series of topographic factors(e.g. slope, aspect, etc.). Based on 1 km resolution DEM data, meteorological observations and NOAA-AVHRR remote sensing data, a distributed model for the calculation of GSR over rugged terrain within the Yangtze River Basin has been developed. The overarching model permits calculation of astronomical solar radiation for rugged topography and comprises a distributed direct solar radiation model, a distributed diffuse radiation model and a distributed terrain reflectance radiation model. Using the developed model, a quantitative simulation of the GSR space distribution and visualization has been undertaken, with results subsequently analyzed with respect to locality and terrain. Analyses suggest that GSR magnitude is seasonally affected, while the degree of influence was found to increase in concurrence with increasing altitude. Moreover, GSR magnitude exhibited clear spatial variation with respect to the dominant local aspect; GSR values associated with the sunny southern slopes were significantly greater than those associated with shaded slopes. Error analysis indicates a mean absolute error of 12.983 MJm-2 and a mean relative error of 3.608%, while the results based on a site authentication procedure display an absolute error of 22.621 MJm-2 and a relative error of 4.626%.     

Uncertainty due to DEM error in landslide susceptibility mapping

Terrain attributes such as slope gradient and slope shape, computed from a gridded digital elevation model (DEM), are important input data for landslide susceptibility mapping. Errors in DEM can cause uncertainty in terrain attributes and thus influence landslide susceptibility mapping. Monte Carlo simulations have been used in this article to compare uncertainties due to DEM error in two representative landslide susceptibility mapping approaches: a recently developed expert knowledge and fuzzy logic-based approach to landslide susceptibility mapping (efLandslides), and a logistic regression approach that is representative of multivariate statistical approaches to landslide susceptibility mapping. The study area is located in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, China, and includes two adjacent areas with similar environmental conditions – one for efLandslides model development (approximately 250 km²) and the other for model extrapolation (approximately 4600 km²). Sequential Gaussian simulation was used to simulate DEM error fields at 25-m resolution with different magnitudes and spatial autocorrelation levels. Nine sets of simulations were generated. Each set included 100 realizations derived from a DEM error field specified by possible combinations of three standard deviation values (1, 7.5, and 15 m) for error magnitude and three range values (0, 60, and 120 m) for spatial autocorrelation. The overall uncertainties of both efLandslides and the logistic regression approach attributable to each model-simulated DEM error were evaluated based on a map of standard deviations of landslide susceptibility realizations. The uncertainty assessment showed that the overall uncertainty in efLandslides was less sensitive to DEM error than that in the logistic regression approach and that the overall uncertainties in both efLandslides and the logistic regression approach for the model-extrapolation area were generally lower than in the model-development area used in this study. Boxplots were produced by associating an independent validation set of 205 observed landslides in the model-extrapolation area with the resulting landslide susceptibility realizations. These boxplots showed that for all simulations, efLandslides produced more reasonable results than logistic regression.     

Evaluation of Engineered Geothermal Systems as a Heat Source for Oil Sands Production in Northern Alberta

This paper evaluates the application of geothermal energy by numerically modeling the heat extraction that would result from the injection of cold water into an artificially fractured hot dry rock (HDR). The HDR that would be utilized in Alberta is expected to be granite with a network of pre-existing natural fractures. However, to ensure a continued flow of injected water from the reservoir to the production wells, creation of additional fractures is required. Thus, the properties of these fractures are of prime importance to the efficiency of geothermal energy production. The fracture networks for the simulations were created using a numerical code and were converted into a grid format to be used in a commercial thermal simulator. A new approach to embed a complex fracture system into the numerical model was applied. Various properties of the fractures such as aperture, length, and spacing were changed and their absolute and relative effects on energy production were quantified and the results are presented in this paper. This modeling technique was also verified by comparison with the conventional dual porosity model and by performing a history match with real field data obtained from literature. The applicability of this approach to provide heat for oil sands extraction was investigated using the volumes of water currently needed in northern Alberta. Based on these constraints, numerical simulations were run to evaluate the optimum well spacing that would be required using a three-well configuration. In this simulation, the fracture parameters (density and aperture) were kept fixed assuming that they are not affected by cold water injection. The results of this study suggest that geothermal energy has a potential to be a sustainable form of thermal energy for oil sands extraction in northern Alberta.     

A spatial zoning approach to calibrate and validate urban growth models

Calibration and validation of models predicting urban growth have been largely developed using internal variables. Further investigation is required to improve model’s calibration and validation mixing internal and external variables. To reach this objective, a spatial zoning approach simulating long-term expansion of Mashhad, the second largest city of Iran, was presented in this study. Spatial zoning approaches distinguish local-scale urban dynamics in districts with different socioeconomic characteristics. Thiessen polygons were used to identify districts with different morphology and functional attributes. Urban growth was subsequently simulated for each district using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network and Markov chains (MC) analysis. MLP and MC algorithms were respectively used to derive transition maps from non-urban to urban use of land and to determine spatial evolution of built-up areas at the metropolitan scale. Results of simulations based on spatial zoning were compared with outcomes of traditional urban growth models. Spatial zoning improved significantly model’s accuracy in respect to more traditional simulation modes. The approach proposed here is appropriate when simulating land-use changes under discontinuous urban expansion.