Lateral fold growth and linkage in the Zagros fold and thrust belt (Kurdistan,NE Iraq)

The Zagros fold and thrust belt is a seismically active orogen that has accommodated the N–S shortening between the Arabian and Eurasian plates since the Miocene. Whereas the southeast parts of the belt have been studied in detail, the northwest extent has received considerably less attention, being part of the Republic of Iraq. In this study, we investigate fold growth in the area NE of Erbil (Kurdistan, Iraq). In particular, we focus on the interaction of the transient development of drainage patterns along growing antiforms, as this directly reflects the kinematics of progressive fold growth. Detailed geomorphological studies of the Bana Bawi‐, Permam‐ and Safeen‐fold trains show that these anticlines did not develop from a single embryonic fold but by lateral linkage of several different fold segments. These segments, with length between 5 and 25 km, have been detected by mapping ancient and modern river courses; these initially cut the nose of growing folds until eventually defeated, leaving curved wind gaps behind. Depending on the alignment of the initial embryonic folds, the segments can either record a linear‐ or an en‐echelon linkage. Comparison of natural examples from the Zagros fold and thrust belt in Iraq with published numerically modelled fold growth suggests that both linear‐linkage and en‐echelon linkage are mechanically feasible and are common processes during progressive shortening and fold growth.     

Evidencing a large body of ice in a rock glacier,Vanoise Massif,Northern French Alps

The Sachette rock glacier is an active rock glacier located between 2660 and 2480 m a.s.l. in the Vanoise Massif, Northern French Alps (45° 29′ N, 6° 52′ E). In order to characterize its status as permafrost feature, shallow ground temperatures were monitored and the surface velocity measured by photogrammetry. The rock glacier exhibits near‐surface thermal regimes suggesting permafrost occurrence and also displays significant surface horizontal displacements (0.6–1.3 ± 0.6 m yr^–1). In order to investigate its internal structure, a ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) survey was performed. Four constant‐offset GPR profiles were performed and analyzed to reconstruct the stratigraphy and model the radar wave velocity in two dimensions. Integration of the morphology, the velocity models and the stratigraphy revealed, in the upper half of the rock glacier, the good correspondence between widespread high radar wave velocities (>0.15–0.16 m ns^–1) and strongly concave reflector structures. High radar wave velocity (0.165–0.170 m ns^–1) is confirmed with the analysis of two punctual common mid‐point measurements in areas of exposed shallow pure ice. These evidences point towards the existence of a large buried body of ice in the upper part of the rock glacier. The rock glacier was interpreted to result from the former advance and decay of a glacier onto pre‐existing deposits, and from subsequent creep of the whole assemblage. Our study of the Sachette rock glacier thus highlights the rock glacier as a transitional landform involving the incorporation and preservation of glacier ice in permafrost environments with subsequent evolution arising from periglacial processes.     

Application of a spatially explicit backcasting model: A case study of sustainable development in Salzburg,Austria

The high cost of land for housing within urban centres and the common desire to live within extensive residential areas in the green countryside have, in some cases, led to increasing residential development in the urban hinterland, often resulting in dispersed and sprawling development. In order to counteract such development this article seeks to provide a methodology for implementing strategies which aim is to achieve sustainable development in spatial planning. The proposed methodology, which is known as “backcasting”, aims to improve our ability to avoid undesirable future developments and to encourage those developments that are desirable. Backcasting has previously mostly been used within theoretical processes or frameworks. The backcasting exercise presented in this paper used a Python-based model to create often visionary future scenarios based on interviews with relevant experts, and then used these scenarios as input for a backwards running model. This model simulates a development that runs backwards in time, converging towards the present situation. The backcasting model presented herein has been applied to a case study in Salzburg, Austria.     

Modeling urban growth in a metropolitan area based on bidirectional flows,an improved gravitational field model,and partitioned cellular automata

Simulating urban landscape dynamics in metropolitan areas has attracted much attention lately, but the difficulty remains. Although large-scale urban simulation studies consider spatial interaction as an important factor, spatial interaction cannot be accurately measured based on a single element flow, and its effects may not strictly follow a distance decay function. Furthermore, different cities may require different transition rules. In this study, we combined bidirectional flows of population and information and an improved gravitational field model to model the urban spatial interaction, and we then integrated a partitioned cellular automata (CA) model to simulate the urban growth for different cities in the Yangtze River middle reaches megalopolis. It was found that the simulation results generated by the CA model considering spatial interaction are significantly improved. Furthermore, partitioned conversion thresholds can effectively improve the model performance. The proposed model showed a much better performance in the simulation of subordinate cities surrounding the core cities, than for the core cities and fringe cities. We suggest that large-scale urban simulation should pay more attention to the development of partitioned transition rules. The effects of intercity urban flows should also be considered in the simulation of small- and medium-sized cities near the regional cores.     

Minimum work, fault activity and the growth of critical wedges in fold and thrust belts

Many studies of critical wedges treat the interior of the wedge as continuous and do not address the manner in which it grows from the undeformed state to a typical imbricate wedge. In this paper we present a 2D kinematic–mechanical model which attempts to explain the development of a critical wedge in a fold and thrust belt in terms of both gravitational and frictional work. In the undeformed model a series of thrust faults are defined which have the potential to take up an external displacement. The active fault at a given time is that which minimizes gravitational and frictional work as a result of displacement. Displacement on the active fault causes a change in topography and deformation of other faults which may favour an alternative fault at the next time step. The model is a mixed Lagrangian–Eulerian scheme in which the upper surface, in addition to being deformed, is also subject to erosion, transport and sedimentation. The model predicts propagation of thrust fault activity towards the foreland through time as a result of increasing topographic (gravitational) loads and frictional work on deformed hinterland faults. As the zone of fault activity progresses through the developing critical wedge several faults are active over time-scales of ≈1 Myr. However, a simple chronology or sequence of fault activity cannot be assumed as out-of-sequence thrusting occurs during this overall foreland propagation. The detailed spatial and temporal activity of faults is complex and reflects the interaction between the development of topography, the contrast between basal (décollement) and internal coefficients of friction and the effects of erosion and sedimentation. In particular, rates of erosion and sedimentation are found to be important controls on fault activity both spatially and temporally. Erosion, by locally removing topography above a fault, reduces gravitational and frictional work enabling continued fault activity or reactivation. Sedimentation, conversely, acts to increase gravitational and frictional work on a fault, and therefore has the potential to blanket faults and render them inactive. Model results illustrate the complex feedbacks that can exist between tectonic and surficial mass transport processes.     

Recent fold growth and drainage development: The Janauri and Chandigarh anticlines in the Siwalik foothills, northwest India

The active growth of a fault-and-thrust belt in frontal zones of Himalaya is a prominent topographical feature, extending 2500 km from Assam to Pakistan. In this paper, kinematical analysis of frontal anticlines and spatial mapping of active faults based on geomorphological features such as drainage pattern development, fault scarps and uplifted Quaternary alluvial fans are presented. We analyse the geomorphic and hydrographic expressions of the Chandigarh and the Janauri active anticlines in the NW India Siwaliks. To investigate the morphological scenario during the folding process, we used spatial imagery, geomorphometric parameters extracted from digital elevation models and fieldwork. Folding between the Beas and Sutlej Rivers gives clear geomorphological evidence of recent fold growth, presumably driven by movements of blind thrust faults. Structural style within the Janauri and Chandigarh anticlines is highly variable (fault-propagation folds, pop-up structures and transfer faults). The approach presented here involves analysis of topography and drainage incision of selected landforms to detect growth of active anticlines and transfer faults. Landforms that indicate active folding above a southwest-dipping frontal thrust and a northeast-dipping back-thrust are described. Along-strike differences in ridge morphology are measured to describe the interaction of river channel patterns with folds and thrust faults and to define history of anticline growth. The evolution of the apparently continuous Janauri ridge has occurred by the coalescence of independent segments growing towards each other. By contrast, systematic drainage basin asymmetry shows that the Chandigarh anticline ridge has propagated laterally from NW to SE.     

Holocene sediments of Sägistalsee, a small lake at the present-day tree-line in the Swiss Alps

Sägistalsee is a small lake located at the modern tree-line in the Swiss Alps. A 13.5 m long core taken in the central part of the 9.5 m deep basin consists of clayey silts and sands and dates back to about 9000 cal. BP. These sediments have a low organic content that steadily increases from 4–8% loss-on-ignition at 550 °C towards the top of the core, whereas the carbonate content decreases from 20 to about 10% loss-on-ignition at 950 %C. We outline the aims of an interdisciplinary research project centred on the Holocene sediments of Sägistalsee. We also present information about the lake, its sediments, and its catchment that forms the basis for different biotic and abiotic multi-proxy studies carried out on the sediments of Sägistalsee.     

Developing a multi-network urbanization model: A case study of urban growth in Denver,Colorado

Urbanization is an important issue concerning diverse scientific and policy communities. Computational models quantifying locations and quantities of urban growth offer numerous environmental and socioeconomic benefits. Traditional urban growth models are based on a single-algorithm fitting procedure and thus restricted on their ability to capture spatial heterogeneity. Accordingly, a GIS-based modeling framework titled multi-network urbanization (MuNU) model is developed that integrates multiple neural networks. The MuNU model enables a filtering approach where input data patterns are automatically reallocated into appropriate neural networks with targeted accuracies. We hypothesize that observations classified by individual neural networks share greater homogeneity, and thus modeling accuracy will increase with the integration of multiple targeted algorithms. Land use and land cover data sets of two time snapshots (1977 and 1997) covering the Denver Metropolitan Area are used for model training and validation. Compared to a single-step algorithm – either a stepwise logistic regression or a single neural network – several improvements are evident in the visual output of the MuNU model. Statistical validations further quantify the superiority of the MuNU model and support our hypothesis of effective incorporation of spatial heterogeneity.     

Along‐strike evolution of folding,stretching and breaching of supra‐salt strata in the Plataforma Burgalesa extensional forced fold system (northern Spain)

The Plataforma Burgalesa is a partly exposed extensional forced fold system with an intermediate salt layer, which has developed along the southern portion of the Basque‐Cantabrian Basin from Malm to Early Cretaceous as part of the Bay of Biscay‐Pyrenean rift system. Relationships between syn‐ and pre‐rift strata of the supra‐salt cover sequence and distribution of intra‐cover second‐order faults are observed both along seismic sections and at the surface. These relationships indicate an along‐strike variability of the extensional structural style. After a short period of salt mobilization and forced folding, high slip rates in the central portion of the major basement faults have rapidly promoted brittle behaviour of the salt layer, preventing further salt mobilization and facilitating the propagation of the fault across the salt layer. In contrast, at the tip regions of basement faults, slower slip rates have facilitated ductile salt behaviour, ensuring its further evaporite evacuation, preventing fault propagation across the salt layer and, in essence, allowing for a long‐living forced folding process. Our results indicate the important effect of along‐strike variation in displacement and displacement rates in controlling evaporite behaviour in extensional basins. Amount of displacement and displacement rates are key factors controlling the propagation of basement faults across evaporite layers. In addition, growth strata patterns are recognized as a powerful tool for constraining the up‐dip propagation history of basement faults in extensional fault‐related fold systems with intermediate décollement levels.     

The space-time structure of oil and gas field growth in a complex depositional system

Shortly after the discovery of an oil and gas field, an initial estimate is usually made of the ultimate recovery of the field. With the passage of time, this initial estimate is almost always revised upward. The phenomenon of the growth of the expected ultimate recovery of a field, which is known as field growth, is important to resource assessment analysts for several reasons. First, field growth is the source of a large part of future additions to the inventory of proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas in most petroliferous areas of the world. Second, field growth introduces a large negative bias in the forecast of the future rates of discovery of oil and gas fields made by discovery process models. In this study, the growth in estimated ultimate recovery of oil and gas in fields made up of sandstone reservoirs formed in a complex depositional environment (Frio strand plain exploration play) is examined. The results presented here show how the growth of oil and gas fields is tied directly to the architectural element of the shoreline processes and tectonics that caused the deposition of the individual sand bodies hosting the producible hydrocarbon.     

Basin evolution of Upper Cretaceous–Lower Cenozoic strata in the Malargüe fold‐and‐thrust belt: northern Neuquén Basin,Argentina

The Andean Orogen is the type‐example of an active Cordilleran style margin with a long‐lived retroarc fold‐and‐thrust belt and foreland basin. Timing of initial shortening and foreland basin development in Argentina is diachronous along‐strike, with ages varying by 20–30 Myr. The Neuquén Basin (32°S to 40°S) contains a thick sedimentary sequence ranging in age from late Triassic to Cenozoic, which preserves a record of rift, back arc and foreland basin environments. As much of the primary evidence for initial uplift has been overprinted or covered by younger shortening and volcanic activity, basin strata provide the most complete record of early mountain building. Detailed sedimentology and new maximum depositional ages obtained from detrital zircon U–Pb analyses from the Malargüe fold‐and‐thrust belt (35°S) record a facies change between the marine evaporites of the Huitrín Formation (ca. 122 Ma) and the fluvial sandstones and conglomerates of the Diamante Formation (ca. 95 Ma). A 25–30 Myr unconformity between the Huitrín and Diamante formations represents the transition from post‐rift thermal subsidence to forebulge erosion during initial flexural loading related to crustal shortening and uplift along the magmatic arc to the west by at least 97 ± 2 Ma. This change in basin style is not marked by any significant difference in provenance and detrital zircon signature. A distinct change in detrital zircons, sandstone composition and palaeocurrent direction from west‐directed to east‐directed occurs instead in the middle Diamante Formation and may reflect the Late Cretaceous transition from forebulge derived sediment in the distal foredeep to proximal foredeep material derived from the thrust belt to the west. This change in palaeoflow represents the migration of the forebulge, and therefore, of the foreland basin system between 80 and 90 Ma in the Malargüe area.     

Landsliding and sediment flux in the Central Swiss Alps: A photogrammetric study of the Schimbrig landslide, Entlebuch

This study explores the effects of hillslope mass failure on the sediment flux in the Waldemme drainage basin, Central Swiss Alps, over decadal time scales. This area is characterized by abundant landslides affecting principally flysch units and is therefore an important sediment source. The analysis concentrates on the Schimbrig landslide that potentially contributes up to 15% to the sediment budget of the Waldemme drainage basin. Volumetric changes are quantified using high-resolution elevation models that were extracted using digital photogrammetric techniques. Sediment discharge data were used to constrain the significance of the landslide for sediment flux in the channel network. The temporal extent of the photogrammetric analysis ranges from 1962 to 1998, including an earth slide event in 1994. The analyses reveal that during periods of low slip rates of the landslide, nearly all of the displaced sediments were eroded and supplied to the channel network. In contrast, during active periods, only a fraction of the displaced landslide mass was exported to the trunk stream. Interestingly, the 1994 earth slide event did not disturb the long-term sediment discharge pattern of the channel network, nor did it influence the sediment flux at a weekly scale. However, suspended sediment pulses correlate with higher-than-average precipitation events. This was especially the case in August 2005 when a storm event (> 100 years return period) triggered several debris flows and earth flows in the whole drainage basin and in the Schimbrig area. This storm did not result in a significant increase in the slip rates of the entire landslide's main body. It is therefore proposed that debris flows and earth flows perform the connectivity between hillslope processes (e.g. landsliding) and the trunk stream during and between phases of landslide activity in this particular setting.     

Cosmogenic Be dating of a sackung and its faulted rock glaciers, in the Alps of Savoy (France)

Sackungs are the largest gravitational deformation observed in mountains. They are characterized by the long-term slowness of the movements, but their mechanism is still not well understood. Nowadays cosmic ray exposure (CRE) dating methods allow dating the morphologic structures involved in sackung and can contribute at the understanding of their origin. In the Alps, the 5.3 km long Arcs sackung initiated during the activity of rock glaciers. Three samples from these faulted rock glaciers provide their first CRE ages and show that at 2000 m elevation these block accumulations moved during the Younger Dryas and stopped in early Holocene. Six ¹⁰Be ages of fault scarps show that the Arcs sackung lasted only a few thousand years and stopped at about 8462 ± 432 ¹⁰Be yr. They also reveal that deformation migrated upslope in agreement with a mechanism of flexural toppling of vertical layers. This unique and long gravitational event, characterized by migration of the deformation, does not support earthquake shaking as triggering mechanism for individual faults. It shows that, in the upper Isère valley, slope deformation was delayed of several thousand years after glacial debuttressing, and is not anymore active despite its fresh morphology.     

Frequency of debris flows and their relation with precipitation: A case study in the Central Alps, Italy

Debris flows are very important and widespread mass movements, and represent a remarkable geomorphological hazard. This research deals with debris flows in an alpine environment, studied using dendrogeomorphological dating techniques, outlining their relation with precipitation, and analysing possible changes in their frequency and intensity over time. The study area is the upper Valle del Gallo (Northern Italy), a typical high mountain environment dominated by mass wasting processes, where many debris-flow fans occupy the valley bottom. Dendrogeomorphological research was conducted on twelve of these fans and two channels located on slopes. Tree growth anomalies (abrasion scars, compression wood and abrupt growth changes) were used as dating methods. Two hundred and thirty nine debris debris-flow events between 1875 and 2003 were dated using 757 trees (Pinus montana Mill.). Analysis between dated events and precipitation suggests that debris flows in the study area could be triggered by 20–30 mm of rain concentrated in a few hours. The debris-flow frequency tends to increase gradually, but the highest value seems to have occurred in the period 1974–1983. This trend agrees with the historical occurrence of flooding events in Northern Italy as inferred by literature, and with similar studies conducted in the Swiss Alps. The results of this research are intended as a contribution for understanding the response of geomorphological processes to climatic changes.     

Nonparametric Geostatistical Simulation of Subsurface Facies: Tools for Validating the Reproduction of,and Uncertainty in,Facies Geometry

Delineation of facies in the subsurface and quantification of uncertainty in their boundaries are significant steps in mineral resource evaluation and reservoir modeling, which impact downstream analyses of a mining or petroleum project. This paper investigates the ability of nonparametric geostatistical simulation algorithms (sequential indicator, single normal equation and filter-based simulation) to construct realizations that reproduce some expected statistical and spatial features, namely facies proportions, boundary regularity, contact relationships and spatial correlation structure, as well as the expected fluctuations of these features across the realizations. The investigation is held through a synthetic case study and a real case study, in which a pluri-Gaussian model is considered as the reference for comparing the simulation results. Sequential indicator simulation and single normal equation simulation based on over-restricted neighborhood implementations yield the poorest results, followed by filter-based simulation, whereas single normal equation simulation with a large neighborhood implementation provides results that are closest to the reference pluri-Gaussian model. However, some biases and inaccurate fluctuations in the realization statistics (facies proportions, indicator direct and cross-variograms) still arise, which can be explained by the use of a single finite-size training image to construct the realizations.

     

Palaeolimnological Development of Lake Njargajavri, Northern Finnish Lapland, in a Changing Holocene Climate and Environment

This study used palaeolimnological approaches to determine how Holocene climatic and environmental changes affected aquatic assemblages in a subarctic lake. Sediments of the small Lake Njargajavri, in northern Finnish Lapland above the present treeline, were studied using multi-proxy methods. The palaeolimnological development of the lake was assessed by analyses of chironomids, Cladocera and diatoms. The lake was formed in the early Holocene and was characterized by prominent erosion and leaching from poorly developed soils before the establishment of birch forests, resulting in a high pH and trophic state. The lake level started to lower as early as ca. 10,200 cal. BP. In the resulting shallow basin, rich in aquatic mosses, pH decreased and a diverse cladoceran and chironomid assemblage developed. It is likely that there was a slight rise in the water level ca. 8000 cal. BP. Later, during the mid-Holocene characterized by low effective moisture detected elsewhere in Fennoscandia, the lake probably completely dried out; this is manifest as a hiatus in the stratigraphy. The sediment record continues from ca. 5000 cal. BP onwards as the lake formed again due to increased effective moisture. The new lake was characterized by very low pH. The possible spread of pine to the catchment and the development of heath community may have contributed to the unusually steep (for northern Fennoscandia) decline in pH via change in soils, together with the natural decrease in leaching of base cations. Furthermore, the change in pH may have been driven by cooling climate, affecting the balance of dissolved inorganic carbon in the lake.     

Sediment routing evolution in the North Alpine Foreland Basin,Austria: interplay of transverse and longitudinal sediment dispersal

Integration of detrital zircon geochronology and three‐dimensional (3D) seismic‐reflection data from the Molasse basin of Austria yields new insight into Oligocene‐early Miocene palaeogeography and patterns of sediment routing within the Alpine foreland of central Europe. Three‐dimensional seismic‐reflection data show a network of deep‐water tributaries and a long‐lived (>8 Ma) foredeep‐axial channel belt that transported Alpine detritus greater than 100 km from west to east. We present 793 new detrital zircon ages from 10 sandstone samples collected from subsurface cores located within the seismically mapped network of deep‐water tributaries and the axial channel belt. Grain age populations correspond with major pre‐Alpine orogenic cycles: the Cadomian (750–530 Ma), the Caledonian (490–380 Ma) and the Variscan (350–250 Ma). Additional age populations correspond with Eocene‐Oligocene Periadriatic magmatism (40–30 Ma) and pre‐Alpine, Precambrian sources (>750 Ma). Although many samples share the same age populations, the abundances of these populations vary significantly. Sediment that entered the deep‐water axial channel belt from the west (Freshwater Molasse) and southwest (Inntal fault zone) is characterized by statistically indistinguishable age distributions that include populations of Variscan, Caledonian and Cadomian zircon at modest abundances (15–32% each). Sandstone from a shallow marine unit proximal to the northern basin margin consists of >75% Variscan (350–300 Ma) zircon, which originated from the adjacent Bohemian Massif. Mixing calculations based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnoff statistic suggest that the Alpine fold‐thrust belt south of the foreland was also an important source of detritus to the deep‐water Molasse basin. We interpret evolving detrital zircon age distributions within the axial foredeep to reflect a progressive increase in longitudinal sediment input from the west (Freshwater Molasse) and/or southwest (Inntal fault zone) relative to transverse sediment input from the fold‐thrust belt to the south. We infer that these changes reflect a major reorganization of catchment boundaries and denudation rates in the Alpine Orogen that resulted in the Alpine foreland evolving to dominantly longitudinal sediment dispersal. This change was most notably marked by the development of a submarine canyon during deposition of the Upper Puchkirchen Formation that promoted sediment bypass eastward from Freshwater Molasse depozones to the Molasse basin deep‐water axial channel belt. The integration of 3D seismic‐reflection data with detrital zircon geochronology illustrates sediment dispersal patterns within a continental‐scale orogen, with implications for the relative role of longitudinal vs. transverse sediment delivery in peripheral foreland basins.