Estimation of the upper bound of seismic hazard curve by using the generalised extreme value distribution

Flash floods are the most common type of natural hazards that cause loss of life and massive damage to economic activities. During the last few decades, their impact increased due to rapid urbanization and settlement in downstream areas, which are desirable place for development. Wadi Asyuti, much like other wadis in the Eastern Desert of Egypt, is prone to flash flood problems. Analysis and interpretation of microwave remotely sensed data obtained from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data using GIS techniques provided information on physical characteristics of catchments and rainfall zones. These data play a crucial role in mapping flash flood potentials and predicting hydrologic conditions in space and time. In order to delineate flash flood potentials in Wadi Asyuti basin, several morphometric parameters that tend to promote higher flood peak and runoff, including drainage characteristics, basin relief, texture, and geometry were computed, ranked, and combined using several approaches. The resulting flash flood potential maps, categorized the sub-basins into five classes, ranging from very low to very high flood potentials. In addition, integrating the spatially distributed drainage density, rainfall intensity, and slope gradient further highlighted areas of potential flooding within the Wadi Asyuti basin. Processing of recent Landsat-8 imagery acquired on March 15, 2014, validated the flood potential maps and offered an opportunity to measure the extent (200–900 m in width) of the flooding zone within the flash flood event on March 9, 2014, as well as revealed vulnerable areas of social and economic activities. These results demonstrated that excessive rainfall intensity in areas of higher topographic relief, steep slope, and drainage density are the major causes of flash floods. Furthermore, integration of remote sensing data and GIS techniques allowed mapping flood-prone areas in a fast and cost-effective to help decision makers in preventing flood hazards in the future.     

地气测量在北祁连盆地区找矿突破及其意义

北祁连地区是我国最重要的块状硫化物床成矿省之一,虽然该区分布有我国最大的块状硫化物矿床——白银矿田,以及200多处中小型矿床及矿(化)点,但除白银矿田外,多年来在找大矿方面未能突破。原因在于缺乏必要的手段,找矿勘探工作仅限于盆地周边的出露区。近几年,地气测量在黑河盆地的红层覆盖区先后发现了赖都滩和白柳沟矿体,不仅说明地气测量方法有效,而且说明黑河盆地具有寻找大型白银式多金属矿床的潜力。建议采用地气法对整个盆地进行系统勘查,并结合其它方法,优选出最佳的找矿靶区。作者认为,本区找矿突破可为整个北祁连地区其他盆地寻找块状硫化物矿床指出新的找矿方向,将找矿重点转到盆地区,以实现我国块状硫化物矿床勘查的全面突破。     

Morphometric analysis and flash floods of Wadi Sudr and Wadi Wardan, Gulf of Suez, Egypt: using digital elevation model

Application of geographic information systems and remote sensing are a powerful tool for the assessment of risk and management of flood hazards. By using these techniques to extract new drainage network with more details to prepare natural hazard maps which may help decision makers and planners to put suitable solutions reducing the impact of these hazards. Ras Sudr city and surrounding area had been attacked by flash floods of Wadi Sudr and Wadi Wardan which are nearly perpendicular to the eastern side of the Gulf of Suez, Egypt, and many infrastructures had destroyed. GIS techniques and remote sensing are used to find the interrelation between the morphometric parameters by using statistical correlation to determine the area under varying flood conditions. The results of morphometric parameters and the new data of last flood which occurred on 17-18th January 2010 indicate that the two basins are threatened by the risk of flash floods and Wadi Wardan is more risky than Wadi Sudr.     

Integration between morphometric parameters,hydrologic model,and geo-informatics techniques for estimating WADI runoff (case study WADI HALYAH—Saudi Arabia)

In arid and semiarid areas, the only surface and groundwater recharge source is the runoff generated through flash floods. Lack of hydrological data in such areas makes runoff estimation extremely complicated. Flash floods are considered catastrophic phenomena posing a major hazardous threat to cities, villages, and their infrastructures. The objective of this study is to assess the flash flood hazard and runoff in Wadi Halyah and its sub-basins. Integration of morphometric parameters, geo-informatics, and hydrological models has been done to overcome the challenge of scarcity of data.Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection (ASTER) data was used to prepare a digital elevation model (DEM) with 30-m resolution, and geographical information system (GIS) was used in the evaluation of network, geometry, texture, and relief features of the morphometric parameters. Thirty-eight morphometric parameters were estimated and have been linked together for producing nine effective parameters for evaluation of the flash flood hazard in the study basin.Flash flood hazard in Wadi Halyah and its sub-basins was identified and grouped into three classes depending on nine effective parameters directly influencing the flood prone areas. Calculated runoff volume of Wadi Halyah ranges from 26.7 × 10⁶ to 111.4 × 10⁶ m³ with an inundation area of 15 and 27 km² at return periods of 5 and 100 years, respectively. Mathematical relationships among rainfall depth, runoff volume, infiltration losses, and rainfall excess demonstrate a strong directly proportional relationships with correlation coefficient of about 0.99.     

Conceptual models in exploration geochemistry: The Canadian Cordillera and Canadian Shield

This volume summarizes the exploration geochemical conditions in the secondary environment, in the Canadian Cordillera and the Canadian Shield. This is achieved by a number of conceptual models which describe the principles and mechanisms of formation of anomalies, which govern the use of exploration geochemistry. These models have been constructed by drawing together information already existing in the literature plus 38 individual case histories contained in this volume.The formation of anomalies is described for: (1) residual overburden, (2) overburden of local origin (e.g. till), and (3) transported overburden of remote origin (e.g. stratified glacial drift and alluvium). Within each of these categories the effect of element mobility, seepage zones, bogs, variation in overburden thickness, rock type change and soil type change are also described.An attempt has been made, not only to summarize both these conditions where geochemistry can be used as a reliable exploration tool, but also to identify areas where the use of geochemistry is unreliable.A summary is also given of the length of anomalous dispersion and contrast in both soil and sediments for all the case histories quoted, both in this volume and in the literature. This summary is divided according to the type of deposit, i.e. porphyry copper, massive sulphide, etc., and provides a guide for planning the optimum sampling interval.     

Till geochemical and indicator mineral methods in mineral exploration

This paper summarizes advances since 1987 in the application of glacial sediment sampling to mineral exploration (drift prospecting) in areas affected by continental or alpine glaciation. In these exploration programs, clastic glacial sediments are tested by geochemical or mineralogical methods to detect dispersal trains of mineral deposit indicators that have been glacially transported from source by mechanical processes. In glaciated terrain the key sampling medium, till, is produced by abrasion, crushing and blending of rock debris and recycled sediment followed by down-ice dispersal ranging from a few metres to many kilometres. As a consequence of the mid-1980s boom in gold exploration, the majority of case studies and regional till geochemical surveys published in the past decade deal with this commodity. Approximately 30% of Canada and virtually all of Fennoscandia have been covered by regional till geochemical surveys that aid mineral exploration and provide baseline data for environmental, agricultural, and landuse planning. The most profound event in drift prospecting in the last decade, however, has been the early-1990s explosion in diamond exploration which has dramatically increased the profile of glacial geology and glacial sediment sampling and stimulated changes in sampling and analytical methods.     

Geochemical mapping and databases in Finland

Regional geochemical maps in Finland have been produced from many different programmes. The scale of sampling, the material collected and the analytical methods used varied according to the aim of the study. The entire country was covered at a reconnaissance scale using glacial till, groundwater, surface water and organic stream sediments as sampling media. Glacial till was sampled throughout the country at a regional scale. Local scale mapping and detailed geochemical studies are carried out in selected areas. The main analytical methods have been ICP-AES and ICP-MS, but other methods were used when necessary. In assaying solid material, both total decomposition and strong acid (aqua regia) leaching were used. The results are stored in ALKEMIA, a database developed in the geochemistry department of the Geological Survey of Finland. The data are available as tabulated ASCII files and as digital image files on diskettes, or as various types of symbol and colour maps from desired areas or map sheets. Two examples of the application of geochemical mapping data in prospecting and in environmental research are presented. Indications of the presence of gold and multiple-sulphide ore deposits have been the most useful results obtained from a prospecting standpoint. On the environmental side, reconnaissance scale geochemical mapping data gave more reliable information on the base cation concentration than bedrock maps, making them particularly valuable in devising an acidification assessment model.     

A method for flood hazard mapping based on basin morphometry: application in two catchments in Greece

Basin morphometric parameters play an important role in hydrological processes, as they largely control a catchment’s hydrologic response. Their analysis becomes even more significant when studying runoff reaction to intense rainfall, especially in the case of ungauged, flash flood prone basins. Unit hydrographs are one of the useful tools for estimating runoff when instrumental data are inadequate. In this work, instantaneous unit hydrographs based on the time-area method have been compiled along the drainage networks of two small rural catchments in Greece, situated approximately 25 km northeast of its capital, Athens. The two catchments drained by ephemeral torrents, namely Rapentosa and Charadros, have been subject to flash flooding during the last decades, which caused extensive damages at the local small towns of Marathon and Vranas. Hydrograph compilation in numerous locations along the catchments’ drainage networks directly reflected the runoff conditions across each basin against a given rainfall. This gave a holistic assessment of their hydrologic response, allowing the detection of areas where peak flow rates were elevated and therefore, there was higher flood potential. The resulting flood hazard zonation showed good correlation with locations of damages induced by past flood events, indicating that the method can successfully predict flood hazard spatial distribution. The whole methodology was based on geographic information software due to its excellent capabilities on storing and processing spatial data.     

Carbonate dispersal trains, secondary till plumes, and ice streams in the west Foxe Sector, Laurentide Ice Sheet

Regional carbonate dispersal trains cross Melville Peninsula in the northeastern Canadian Arctic. These trains are 50-125 km across and 100-300 km long. The northern dispersal train crosses upland and lowland areas, while the Rae Isthmus train follows the lowlands. The distribution of carbonate in boulder, pebble and matrix till fractions indicates long-distance glacial transport of limestone, a low rate of dilution, and comminution from pebble to silt sizes. Dispersal patterns and geotechnical properties of the till suggest deforming bed and basal gliding mechanisms of ice flow associated with ice-streaming. Regional ice streams may have been 'normative' in carbonate terrain during the main Foxe (Wisconsin) Glaciation. Till plumes within regional dispersal trains, showing little dilution of carbonate down-ice from bedrock sources, are oriented towards lowlands. These features, sharp-edged and 300 mwide, mark zones of augmented flow. They are late-glacial features that formed after calving bays developed in Committee Bay. The dimensions of the dispersal trains, and ice-flow styles and mechanisms, are similar to those of modern Antarctic ice streams. The sharp edges of till plumes may delineate flow boundaries marked by lateral crevasse zones in the late-glacial ice sheet. Secondary streams-within-ice streams have not been reported previously in the literature.     

温冰川冰内及冰下水系季节演化及其水文学分析

针对温冰川冰内及冰下水系(又称冰川排水系统)演化及其水力过程,回顾了我国20世纪90年代在典型温冰川海螺沟冰川开展钻孔试验及关于冰下河堵溃问题的水文学分析,主要从水文学角度,探讨了消融期温冰川冰内及冰下水系的演化过程及其在径流过程曲线上的反映.利用径流-气温交叉相关分析方法,计算了海螺沟冰川2003—2005年逐日Q-T时滞,其季节变化在一定程度上指示了冰内及冰下水系季节演化过程及其水力状况,并针对典型时段,重点探讨了二者之间的相关性.     

The ice/bed interface mosaic: deforming spots intervening with stable areas under the fringe of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet at Sampława,Poland

The glacial sediment succession exposed close to the southern margin of the Late Weichselian Scandinavian Ice Sheet in Poland reveals a mosaic consisting of isolated patches of heavily deformed deposits separated by areas lacking any visible evidence of deformation. In the studied outcrop, the subglacial deforming spots composed of outwash deposits intercalated with till stringers are about 2–10 m wide and 20–60 cm thick. They rest on outwash sediments and are covered by a basal till. Based on structural and textural characteristics, the deforming spots are interpreted as previous R‐channels filled with meltwater deposits. Lack of deformation in outwash sediment immediately beneath the deforming spots and in the intervening areas between the channels suggests that the ice‐bed was frozen and the deformation of the channel infill was facilitated by high pore‐water pressure arising because water drainage into the bed was impeded by permafrost. Channel infill deposits and the till immediately above were coevally deformed to a strain of less than 9. This study documents the possible co‐existence of deforming and stable areas under an ice sheet, generated by spatially varying thermal and hydrological conditions affecting sediment rheology.     

Overbank sediment: a representative sample medium for regional geochemical mapping

In Scandinavia, most fluvial erosion takes place in the Quaternary glacial overburden at a restricted number of small source areas along individual drainage channels. As a consequence, a sample of active stream sediment is representative of only a very limited portion of the drainage area. This restriction makes stream sediment less reliable for regional exploration than generally expected. Overbank (levee or river-plain) sediment produced during large floods is an alternate more representative sampling medium. The sediment suspended during a flood has a much more widespread origin, and when the load is deposited upon the flood plain, nearly horizontal strata are formed and preserved at levels above the ordinary stream channel. A composite sample through a vertical section of such strata represents a great number of sediment sources that have been active at different times and forms an integrated sample of the entire catchment area. Because young sediments overlay older, the uppermost layers will be contaminated by pollutants in industrialized regions, but those at depth may remain pristine and will to a greater extent reflect the natural pre-industrial environment. In regional geochemical mapping, overbank sediment can be sampled at widely spaced sites, keeping costs per unit area low. Examples from Norway (1 sample station per 500 km²) show that overbank sediment produces broad geochemical patterns with high contrasts reflecting the bedrock geochemistry. Some patterns agree with known geological units and metallogenic provinces, but hitherto unknown major structures have also been indicated. A large Mo-deposit missed by a traditional stream survey is readily detected in the overbank sediment. It is concluded that overbank sediment is a promising alternate sample medium that should be tested in other physiographic regions.     

Till‐forming processes beneath parts of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet,British Columbia,Canada: macroscale and microscale evidence and a new statistical technique for analysing microstructure data

This paper presents the first integrated macroscale and microscale examination of subglacial till associated with the last‐glacial (Fraser Glaciation) Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS). A new statistical approach to quantifying till micromorphology (multivariate hierarchical cluster analysis for compositional data) is also described and implemented. Till macrostructures, macrofabrics and microstructures support previous assertions that primary till in this region formed through a combination of lodgement and deformation processes in a temperate subglacial environment. Macroscale observations suggest that subglacial environments below the CIS were probably influenced by topography, whereby poor drainage of the substrate in topographically constricted areas, or on slopes adverse to the ice‐flow direction at glacial maximum, facilitated ductile deformation of the glacier bed. Microscale observations suggest that subglacial till below the CIS experienced both ductile and brittle deformation, including grain rotation and squeeze flow of sediment between grains under moist conditions, and microshearing, grain stacking and grain fracturing under well‐drained conditions. Macroscale observations suggest that ductile deformation events were probably followed by brittle deformation events as the substrate subsequently drained. The prevalence of ductile‐type microstructures in most till exposures investigated in this study suggests that ductile deformation signatures can be preserved at the microscale after brittle deformation events that result in larger‐scale fractures and shear structures. It is likely that microscale ductile deformation can also occur within distributed shear zones during lodgement processes. Cluster analysis of microstructure data and qualitative observations made from thin sections suggest that the relative frequency of countable microstructures in this till is influenced by topography in relation to ice‐flow direction (bed drainage conditions) as well as by the frequency and distribution of voids in the till matrix and skeletal grain shapes.     

Flash flood risk estimation along the St. Katherine road,southern Sinai,Egypt using GIS based morphometry and satellite imagery

Flash floods are considered to be one of the worst weather-related natural disasters. They are dangerous because they are sudden and are highly unpredictable following brief spells of heavy rain. Several qualitative methods exist in the literature for the estimations of the risk level of flash flood hazard within a watershed. This paper presents the utilization of remote sensing data such as enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), coupled with geological, geomorphological, and field data in a GIS environment for the estimation of the flash flood risk along the Feiran–Katherine road, southern Sinai, Egypt. This road is a vital corridor for the tourists visiting here for religious purposes (St. Katherine monastery) and is subjected to frequent flash floods, causing heavy damage to man-made features. In this paper, morphometric analyses have been used to estimate the flash flood risk levels of sub-watersheds within the Wadi Feiran basin. First, drainage characteristics are captured by a set of parameters relevant to the flash flood risk. Further, comparison between the effectiveness of the sub-basins has been performed in order to understand the active ones. A detailed geomorphological map for the most hazardous sub-basins is presented. In addition, a map identifying sensitive sections is constructed for the Feiran–Katherine road. Finally, the most influenced factors for both flash flood hazard and critical sensitive zones have been discussed. The results of this study can initiate appropriate measures to mitigate the probable hazards in the area.     

Monitoring Flood Extent and Forecasting Excess Runoff Risk with RADARSAT-1 Data

Earth observation from active microwave satellites such as RADARSAT-1 is an excellent tool to monitor and forecast floods. Two complementary approaches are described in this paper: (a) real time or near-real time monitoring of flood extent and (b) mapping of hydrological properties of drainage basins. Since it can penetrate through clouds, which usually occur during precipitation periods, and due to the fact that it can be programmed with different incidence angles, RADARSAT-1 enables frequent coverage over specific areas of interest. It has been used successfully to monitor a major flood of the Red River in Manitoba in 1997, by providing frequent coverage of the flood during its progression and decrease. Resulting data and images have been useful in planning the emergency measures and in assessing flood damage. RADARSAT has also the ability to characterize hydrological properties of watersheds. It has been used in agricultural catchments in Europe for mapping soil surface roughness, which affects runoff coefficients, concentration time and resistance to erosion processes. Used to complement optical data, RADARSAT has provided information on the status of land use and soil protective cover in drainage basins. This information can then be translated into parameters and coefficients that hydrological models can use for runoff and flood forecasting     

Genesis of marginal moraines in the Caucasus

Composition and fabric of different moraines in the glaciated areas of Central Caucasus were studied to elucidate sedimentary environments and geomorphological processes. Methods used included particle-size distribution, pebble and mineral counts, shape analysis of pebbles, and till fabric analysis. Samples were taken from superglacial and basal debris, marginal moraine ridges and till horizons, and quantitative parameters were established for different glacial environments and till accumulation processes. Considerable differences in composition and fabric of superglacial and basal debris were caused by their specific transport conditions. Most marginal moraines consist of material similar to basal debris and only the topmost parts of some ridges have a noticeable incorporation of superglacial debris. These results point to considerable erosion of mountain valleys by temperate glaciers. Previous geomorphological investigations have emphasized the importance of superglacial debris in the formation of marginal moraines by alpine glaciers, but this viewpoint is not supported by the studies performed.     

Modeling the subglacial hydrology of the James Lobe of the Laurentide Ice Sheet

To investigate the drainage conditions that might be expected to develop beneath soft-bedded ice sheets, we modeled the subglacial hydrology of the James Lobe of the Laurentide Ice Sheet from Hudson Bay to the Missouri River. Simulations suggest the James Lobe had little effect on regional groundwater flow because the poorly conductive Upper-Cretaceous shale that occupies the upper layer of the bedrock would have functioned as a regional aquitard. This implies that general northward groundwater flow out of the Williston Basin has likely persisted throughout the Quaternary. Moreover, the simulations indicate that the regional aquifer system could not have drained even the minimum amount of basal meltwater that might have been produced from at the glacier bed. Therefore, excess drainage must have occurred by some sort of channelized drainage network at the ice–till interface. Using a regional groundwater model to determine the hydraulic conductivity for an equivalent porous medium in a 1-m thick zone between the ice and underlying sediment, and assuming conduit dimensions from previous theoretical work, we use a theoretical karst aquifer analog as a heuristic approach to estimate the spacing of subglacial conduits that would have been required at the ice–till interface to evacuate the minimum water flux. Results suggest that for conduits assumed to be on the order of a tenth of a meter deep and up to a meter wide, inter-conduit spacing must be on the order of tens–hundreds of meters apart to maintain basal water pressures below the ice overburden pressure while evacuating the hypothesized minimum meltwater flux.     

Impacts of surface mine valley fills on headwater floods in eastern Kentucky

The potential impacts of valley fills associated with mountaintop removal/valley fill (MTR/VF) coal mining on downstream flooding in the coalfields of eastern Kentucky and adjacent states are a subject of public debate and scientific uncertainty. This study explored two aspects of this issue. First, hydrologic indices of relative runoff production and surface and subsurface flow detention were applied to conditions typical of headwater and low-order drainage basins in eastern Kentucky. Results show that there is a clear risk of increased flooding (greater runoff production and less surface flow detention) following MTR/VF operations, and suggest that, on balance, valley fills are more likely to increase rather than decrease flood potential. However, there is a wide range of outcomes, qualitatively and quantitatively. Flood risks can be increased or decreased, and the degree of either may vary markedly. The effects of MTR/VF mining on downstream peak flows are highly contingent on local pre- and post-mining conditions, and it would be unwise to apply generalizations to specific sites. Second, the occurrence of flash floods downstream of MTR/VF operations when nearby unmined areas did not flood or had less severe floods has frequently been explained (without supporting data) in terms of locally greater precipitation. The likelihood of such short-range variability of storm precipitation is evaluated by applying the state probability function to NEXRAD radar estimates of precipitation for two 2001 storms which produced flash floods in eastern Kentucky. The spatial structure of the storm precipitation indicates that at the scale of the analysis (pixel size of approximately 2 km) large local variations in storm precipitation are unlikely—that is, the probability of nearby hollows or low-order drainage basins receiving substantially different storm precipitation totals is low.     

The problem of defining geochemical baselines. A case study of selected elements and geological materials in Finland

Although the term ‘geochemical baseline’ appears in the international geochemical mapping programmes IGCP 259 and 360, it has never been well defined. Several considerations relevant to such a definition are discussed. A geochemical baseline for an element refers to its natural variations in concentration in the surficial environment. Geochemical baselines were studied in Finland by comparing results from regional geochemical mapping programmes based on samples of till, clay and organic stream sediment. The geochemical background changes regionally with the basic geology and locally with the type and genesis of the overburden. Baseline concentrations depend on sample material collected, grain size and extraction method. In Finland, concentrations of potentially harmful elements tend to be higher in fine-grained marine and lacustrine sediments than in glacial till. Concentrations are also systematically higher in the < 0.06 mm fraction than in the < 2 mm size fraction of till samples. Only small proportions of the total heavy metal concentrations in Finnish marine clays are bioavailable. Geochemical baselines are needed for environmental legislation and political decision-making, especially in the assessment of contaminated soil. In many areas of Finland, natural concentrations of several heavy metals exceed the guide or limit values designated for contaminated soils. Thus baselines must always be verified in any assessment of sites for contamination.