Diatom-inference models for surface-water temperature and salinity developed from a 57-lake calibration set from the Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Physical, chemical, and biological data were collected from a suite of 57 lakes that span an elevational gradient of 1360 m (2115 to 3475 m a.s.l.) in the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, USA as part of a multiproxy study aimed at developing transfer functions from which to infer past drought events. Multivariate statistical techniques, including canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), were used to determine the main environmental variables influencing diatom distributions in the study lakes. Lakewater depth, surface-water temperature, salinity, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus were important variables in explaining variance in the diatom distributions. Weighted-averaging (WA) and weighted-averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) were used to develop diatom-based surface-water temperature and salinity inference models. The two best diatom-inference models for surface-water temperature were developed using simple WA and inverse deshrinking. One model covered a larger surface-water temperature gradient (13.7 °C) and performed slightly poorer (r² = 0.72, RMSE = 1.4 °C, RMSEP_jack = 2.1 °C) than a second model, which covered a smaller gradient (9.5 °C) and performed slightly better (r² = 0.89, RMSE = 0.7 °C, RMSEP_jack = 1.5 °C). The best diatom-inference model for salinity was developed using WA-PLS with three components (r² = 0.96, RMSE = 4.06 mg L^–1, RMSEP_jack = 11.13 mg L^–1). These are presently the only diatom-based inference models for surface-water temperature and salinity developed for the southwestern United States. Application of these models to fossil-diatom assemblages preserved in Sierra Nevada lake sediments offers great potential for reconstructing a high-resolution time-series of Holocene and late Pleistocene climate and drought for California.     

Diatom-temperature transfer functions based on the altitudinal zonation of diatom assemblages in Papua New Guinea: a possible tool in the reconstruction of regional palaeoclimatic changes

Indirect and direct gradient ordination techniques were used to study the relationship between present-day benthic and periphytic diatom assemblages and environmental factors along an altitudinal gradient in Papua New Guinea. Both within the screened initial data-set and a narrowly-defined subset of soft-water lakes, shifts in diatom assemblages are clearly related to altitudinal differences. This relation is used to construct transfer functions for inferring altitude (and hence average water temperature) from the diatom records. Calibration by canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and simple weighted averaging calibration proved to be superior to models using WA with tolerance downweighting and to a simple WA model based on a selection of 52 indicator taxa. From the calibration models and the linear relationship between altitude and epilimnetic water temperature, the average lake water temperature can be predicted with an accuracy of 3.2°C. After further refinement, a transfer function for palaeotemperature based on diatoms would be of potential value for climatic reconstructions in tropical regions.     

Surface sediment Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) distributions along an ecotonal transect in subarctic Fennoscandia: developing a tool for palaeotemperature reconstructions

We used multivariate statistical techniques to analyse the distributions of surface sediment chironomid assemblages with respect to surface-water temperature, and an additional set of 27 environmental variables, in 30 freshwater lakes of northern Fennoscandia. Our study transect spans boreal coniferous forest to subarctic tundra and includes a steep temperature gradient. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) with forward selection and associated Monte Carlo permutation tests revealed that there were statistically significant (P<0.05) relationships between chironomid distributions and two environmental variables, namely lakewater temperature and maximum lake depth. A constrained CCA with temperature as the only predictor variable suggested that the relationship between lakewater temperature and chironomid composition was sufficiently robust for developing a weighted-averaging (WA) based quantitative inference model that will allow palaeotemperature reconstructions using subfossil chironomid remains preserved in lake sediments.     

Diatom-based transfer functions for western Quebec lakes (Abitibiand Haute Mauricie): the possible role of epilimnetic CO2 concentration in influencing diatom assemblages

Surficial sediments from 76 lakes from two western Quebec regions(Abitibi and Haute Mauricie) were sampled to identify the relationships betweendiatoms and environmental variables. Because the two regions containedradically different diatom communities, we then investigated which factors maybe responsible for the large community discrepancies in the two nearbygeographical areas. Standard lake chemistry variables showed little differencesbetween the regions, although epilimnetic light regimes were slightly lower inAbitibi. Nevertheless, lakes of the two regions with similar light regimes andchemistry still showed a clear separation in their diatoms, implying that otherimportant factors are influencing assemblages. We found that the calculatedconcentration of CO₂ in the open water can explain some of thediscrepancy in diatom assemblages. A pCCA constrained to the concentration ofCO₂ with alkalinity and pH as covariables explained 12.5% of speciesvariance and was significant. Given the lack of a relationship between DOC andCO₂, and because the lakes are heavily supersaturated withCO₂ in the calibration set, lake-to-lake variations inCO₂ concentrations are likely due to groundwater inputs; thepossibility that this environmental variable may be influencing diatomcommunities might allow, in some cases, the reconstruction of historicalchanges in groundwater inputs to lakes. Finally, new calibration models werebuilt in Quebec by using weighted averaging partial least square(WA-PLS) techniques in order to infer pH, CO₂, TP, TN, and, DOC fromdiatom assemblages preserved in the surface sediments.     

Diatom and chrysophyte functions and inferences of post-industrial acidification and recent recovery trends in Killarney lakes (Ontario, Canada)

The surface sediment diatom and chrysophyte assemblages from 33 Sudbury lakes were added to our published 72 lake data set to expand and refine the diatom and chrysophyte-based inference models that we had earlier developed for this region. Our calibration data set now includes 105 lakes, representing gradients for multiple environmental variables (e.g., lakewater pH, metals, and transparency). The revised models are based on the weighted averaging calibration and regression approach and include bootstrap error estimates. The pH model was the strongest (r² _boot = 0.75, RMSE _boot = 0.50). The chrysophyte-inferred pH model (r² _boot = 0.79, RMSE _boot = 0.48) that we developed was as robust as the diatom pH model. Diatom and chrysophyte inferred pH models were then applied to top (surface sediments representing current conditions) and bottom (generally from > 30 cm deep representing pre-industrial conditions) sediment diatom and chrysophyte assemblages of 19 Killarney area lakes near Sudbury. The top and bottom inferred pH results were compared to early-1970s measured pH data. These data suggest that, although many of the poorly buffered Killarney lakes had experienced acidification, marked pH recovery has occurred in many lakes within the last 25 years. Despite the stunning pH recovery, the present-day diatom and chrysophyte assemblages are significantly different from assemblages present during pre-industrial times. Our results suggest that biological recovery may require more time than chemical recovery. It is also likely that these lakes may never recover biologically because other anthropogenic stressors (e.g., climate warming and increased exposure to UV-B radiation) may now have greater influence on biological communities in Killarney/Sudbury area lakes than acidification.     

A weighted-averaging regression and calibration model for inferring lakewater salinity from fossil diatom assemblages in saline lakes of the Vestfold Hills: a new tool for interpreting Holocene lake histories in Antarctica

The relationship between surface sediment diatom assemblages and measured limnological variables in thirty-three coastal Antarctic lakes from the Vestfold Hills was examined by constructing a diatom-water chemistry dataset. Previous analysis of this dataset by canonical correspondence analysis revealed that salinity accounted for a significant amount of the variation in the distribution of the diatom assemblages. Weighted-averaging regression and calibration of this diatom-salinity relationship was used to establish a transfer function for the reconstruction of past lakewater salinity from fossil diatom assemblages. Weighted-averaging regression and calibration with classical deshrinking provided the best model for salinity reconstructions and this was applied to the fossil diatom assemblages from one of the saline lakes in the Vestfold Hills in order to assess its potential for palaeosalinity and palaeoclimate reconstruction.     

An expanded weighted-averaging model for inferring past total phosphorus concentrations from diatom assemblages in eutrophic British Columbia (Canada) lakes

Eighteen lakes were added to a published training set of 46 British Columbia (BC) lakes in order to expand the original range of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was used to analyze the relationship between diatom assemblages and environmental variables. Specific conductivity and [TP] each explained significant (P0.05) directions of variance in the distribution of the diatoms. The relationship between diatom assemblages and [TP] was sufficiently strong to warrant the development of a weighted-averaging (WA) regression and calibration model that can be used to infer past trophic status from fossil diatom assemblages.The relationship between observed and inferred [TP] was not improved by the addition of more eutrophic lakes, however the [TP] range and the number of taxa used in the transfer function are now superior to the original model. Diatom species assemblages changed very little in lakes with TP concentrations greater than 85 µg 1^–1, so we document the development of a model containing lakes with TP85 µg 1^–1. The updated model uses 59 training lakes and covers a range of species optima from 6 to 41.9 µg 1^–1 TP, and a total of 150 diatom taxa.The updated inference model provided a more realistic reconstruction of the anthropogenic history of a highly eutrophic BC lake. The model can now be used to infer past nutrient conditions in other BC lakes in order to assess changes in trophic status.     

Water depth is a strong driver of intra-lake diatom distributions in a small boreal lake

There has been much debate over the relative importance of environmental selection and spatial variation on community organization in microorganisms. To assess the importance of environmental or spatial variables in diatom species assemblages in Gall Lake, northwest Ontario, 41 surface-sediment samples were collected in a two-dimensional gridded pattern along and across depth contours. A depth-constrained cluster analysis separated the diatom flora into three communities: a shallow-water benthic zone (B1); a deeper-water benthic zone (B2); and a planktonic zone (P). Redundancy analysis (RDA) confirmed that water depth was a major predictor of variation in the flora. Further RDAs and variation partitioning using orthogonal polynomials and Moran’s eigenvector maps showed that spatial location had minimal effect on the diatom assemblages. Principal components analysis grouped the diatom flora not only by assemblage, but also by water depth, regardless of two-dimensional spatial separation, suggesting the importance of the environmental gradients associated with lake depth. These findings indicate that environment is a more important explanatory variable than spatial variables for diatoms within lakes, suggesting dispersal plays a limited role in intra-lake diatom distributions.     

Intraregional variability in chironomid-inferred temperature estimates and the influence of river inundations on lacustrine chironomid assemblages

Floodplain lakes are rarely analysed for fossil chironomids and usually not incorporated in modern chironomid-climate calibration datasets because of the potential complex hydrological processes that could result from flooding of the lakes. In order to investigate this potential influence of river inundations on fossil chironomid assemblages, 13 regularly inundated lakes and 20 lakes isolated from riverine influence were sampled and their surface sediments analysed for subfossil chironomid assemblages. The physical and chemical settings of all lakes were similar, although the variation in the environmental variables was higher in the lakes isolated from riverine influence. Chironomid concentration and taxon richness show significant differences between the two classes of lakes, and the variation in these variables is best explained by loss-on-ignition of the sediments (LOI). Relative chironomid abundances show some differences between the two groups of lakes, with several chironomid taxa occurring preferentially in one of the two lake-types. The variability in chironomid assemblages is also best explained by LOI. Application of a chironomid-temperature inference model shows that both types of lakes reconstruct July air temperatures that are equal to, or slightly underestimating, the measured temperature of the region. We conclude that, although there are some differences between the chironomid assemblages of floodplain lakes and of isolated lakes, these differences do not have a major effect on chironomid-based temperature reconstruction.     

Cladocera as indicators of trophic state in Irish lakes

We examined the impact of lake trophic state on the taxonomic and functional structure of cladoceran communities and the role of nutrient loading in structuring both cladoceran and diatom communities. Surface sediment assemblages from 33 Irish lakes were analysed along a gradient of total phosphorus concentration (TP; 4.0–142.3 μg l⁻¹), using a variety of statistical approaches including ordination, calibration and variance partitioning. Ordination showed that the taxonomic structure of the cladoceran community displayed the strongest response to changes in lake trophic state, among 17 measured environmental variables. Trophic state variables chlorophyll-a and TP explained about 20% of the variance in both cladoceran and diatom assemblages from a set of 31 lakes. Procrustes analysis also showed significant concordance in the structure of cladoceran and diatom communities (P < 0.001). Thus, lake trophic state affects the taxonomic structure of both primary and secondary producers in our study lakes. We also found a significant decrease in relative abundance of taxa associated with both macrophytes and sediments, or sediments only, along the TP gradient (r = −0.49, P = 0.006, n = 30), as well as an increase in the proportion of the planktonic group (r = 0.43, P = 0.017, n = 30). This suggests that cladoceran community structure may also be shaped by lake trophic state indirectly, by affecting habitat properties. We found no relationship between lake trophic state and the relative abundance of each of three cladoceran groups that display different body size. We compared community structure between bottom and top sediment samples in cores from six Irish lakes. Results revealed similar trajectories of nutrient enrichment over time, as well as a strong shift in cladoceran functional structure in most systems. This study confirms that Cladocera remains in lake sediments are reliable indicators of lake trophic state. This study also highlights the fact that taxonomic and functional structure should both be considered to account for the multiple factors that shape cladoceran communities.     

Diatom-based total phosphorus (TP) and pH transfer functions for the Irish Ecoregion

A 72-lake diatom training set was developed for the Irish Ecoregion to examine the response of surface sediment diatom assemblages to measured environmental variables. A variety of multivariate data analyses was used to investigate environmental and biological data structure and their inter-relationships. Of the variables used in determining a typology for lakes in the Irish Ecoregion, alkalinity was the only one found to have a significant effect on diatom assemblages. A total of 602 diatom taxa were identified, with 233 recorded at three or more sites with abundances ≥1%. Generally diatom data displayed a high degree of heterogeneity at the species level and non-linear ecological responses. Both pH and total phosphorus (TP) (in the ranges of 5.1–8.5 and 4.0–142.3 μg l⁻¹ respectively) were shown to be the most significant variables in determining the surface sediment diatom assemblages. The calibration models for pH and TP were developed using the weighted averaging (WA) method; data manipulation showed strong influences on model performances. The optima WA models based on 70 lakes produced a jack-knifed coefficient of determination (r ² _jack) of 0.89 with a root mean squared error (RMSEP) of 0.32 for pH and r ² _jack of 0.74 and RMSEP of 0.21 (log₁₀ μg l⁻¹) for TP. Both models showed strong performances in comparison with existing models for Ireland and elsewhere. Application of the pH and TP transfer functions developed here will enable the generation of quantitative water quality data from the expanding number of palaeolimnological records available for the Irish Ecoregion, and thus facilitate the use of palaeolimnological approaches in the reconstruction of past lake water quality, ecological assessment and restoration.     

A caveat regarding diatom-inferred nitrogen concentrations in oligotrophic lakes

Atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr) has enriched oligotrophic lakes with nitrogen (N) in many regions of the world and elicited dramatic changes in diatom community structure. The lakewater concentrations of nitrate that cause these community changes remain unclear, raising interest in the development of diatom-based transfer functions to infer nitrate. We developed a diatom calibration set using surface sediment samples from 46 high-elevation lakes across the Rocky Mountains of the western US, a region spanning an N deposition gradient from very low to moderate levels (<1 to 3.2 kg Nr ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in wet deposition). Out of the fourteen measured environmental variables for these 46 lakes, ordination analysis identified that nitrate, specific conductance, total phosphorus, and hypolimnetic water temperature were related to diatom distributions. A transfer function was developed for nitrate and applied to a sedimentary diatom profile from Heart Lake in the central Rockies. The model coefficient of determination (bootstrapping validation) of 0.61 suggested potential for diatom-inferred reconstructions of lakewater nitrate concentrations over time, but a comparison of observed versus diatom-inferred nitrate values revealed the poor performance of this model at low nitrate concentrations. Resource physiology experiments revealed that nitrogen requirements of two key taxa were opposite to nitrate optima defined in the transfer function. Our data set reveals two underlying ecological constraints that impede the development of nitrate transfer functions in oligotrophic lakes: (1) even in lakes with nitrate concentrations below quantification (<1 μg L⁻¹), diatom assemblages were already dominated by species indicative of moderate N enrichment; (2) N-limited oligotrophic lakes switch to P limitation after receiving only modest inputs of reactive N, shifting the controls on diatom species changes along the length of the nitrate gradient. These constraints suggest that quantitative inferences of nitrate from diatom assemblages will likely require experimental approaches.     

Diatom-based water chemistry reconstructions from northern Sweden: a comparison of reconstruction techniques

The diatom composition in surface sediments from 119 northern Swedish lakes was studied to examine the relationship with lake-water pH, alkalinity, and colour. Diatom-based predictive models, using weighted-averaging (WA) regression and calibration, partial least squares (PLS) regression and calibration, and weighted-averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression and calibration, were developed for inferences of water chemistry conditions. The non-linear response between the diatom assemblages and pH and alkalinity was best modelled by weighted-averaging methods. The lowest prediction error for pH was obtained using weighted averaging, with or without tolerance downweighting. For alkalinity there was still some information in the residual structure after extracting the first weighted-averaging component, which resulted in a slight improvement of predictions when using a two component WA-PLS model. The best colour predictions were obtained using a two component PLS model. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the prediction errors, with some characteristics of the training set included as passive variables, was performed to compare the results for the different alkalinity predictive models. The results indicate that calibration techniques utilizing more than one component (PLS and WA-PLS) can improve the predictions for lakes with diatom taxa that have broad tolerances. Furthermore, we show that WA-PLS performs best compared with the other techniques for those lakes that have a high relative abundance of the most dominant taxa and a corresponding low sample heterogeneity.     

Sub-fossil chironomids are significant indicators of turbidity in shallow lakes of northeastern USA

Small, shallow, temperate lakes are predominant landscape features in North America, however, little is known about their long-term ecosystem dynamics, and few data exist on the chironomid fauna they harbor. Using multivariate analyses, we defined relationships between sub-fossil chironomid assemblage composition and environmental variables in 26 shallow lakes of northeastern USA and quantified how differences in taxonomic resolution affect transfer function model performance. Using redundancy analysis, we found that chironomid assemblages are best explained by turbidity, dissolved inorganic carbon and drainage basin/lake area ratio. Turbidity explained the greatest proportion of variance found in the chironomid assemblage (10.4%), followed by total nitrogen. Through ordination analyses and an analysis of similarity, we found that macrophyte density was also a significant predictor of chironomid assemblages. We used partial least squares analysis to develop a robust model for quantitative reconstruction of turbidity, with r _jack² = 0.62. When using a more coarsely resolved taxonomic dataset, we found that model performance statistics were weaker, suggesting the need for fine-resolution taxonomy. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of variables related to lake trophic state in structuring chironomid assemblages in shallow, temperate lakes and provide tools for inferring past ecological changes in these ecosystems.     

Diatoms indicate that calcium decline,not acidification,explains recent cladoceran assemblage changes in south-central Ontario softwater lakes

In recent decades, softwater lakes across Canada have experienced a wide array of anthropogenic influences, with acidification and climate warming of particular concern. Here, we compare modern and pre-industrial sedimentary diatom assemblages from 36 softwater lakes located on the Canadian Shield in south-central Ontario to determine whether lake acidification or reduced calcium availability was the main stressor responsible for recent declines in Ca-sensitive cladoceran taxa. Regional surveys of south-central Ontario water chemistry have identified the pH recovery of many formerly acidified lakes, and our fossil diatom-inferred pH analyses indicate that modern lakewater pH in the 36 study lakes is similar to (or higher than) pre-industrial levels, with diatom assemblages from both time periods dominated by taxa with similar pH preferences. In addition, modern diatom assemblages compared to pre-industrial assemblages contained higher relative abundances of planktonic diatom taxa (e.g. Asterionella formosa and the Discostella stelligera complex) and lower relative abundances of heavily silicified diatoms (e.g. Aulacoseira taxa) and benthic fragilarioid taxa. These taxonomic shifts are consistent with warming-induced changes in lake properties including a longer ice-free period, decreased wind speed and/or increased thermal stability. We conclude that recent changes observed within the cladoceran assemblages of these lakes are not a response to acidification, but are likely a consequence of Ca declines. In addition, our data suggest that regional climate warming is now responsible for the diatom changes observed in this region.     

WA-PLS diatom-based pH, TP and DOC inference models from 42 lakes in the Abitibi clay belt area (Québec, Canada)

The relationship between surficial sediment diatom species and measured environmental variables was explored in lakes from the Abitibi region of western Quebec. Diatom assemblages in 42 lakes were identified and their relationship with measured environmental variables was examined using multivariate statistical methods. Canonical correspondence analysis with forward selection and Monte Carlo permutation tests revealed that the three environmental variables pH, TP and DOC each accounted for statistically significant fractions of the variation in diatom taxa. A training set with 164 modern diatom taxa was used to derive transfer functions for lake-water pH, TP and DOC using weighted-averaging-partial-least-squares (WA-PLS) techniques. The models were developed to infer lake water pH, TP and DOC within the ranges 4–8 for pH, 2.75–30.0 g l^–1 for TP, and 2.9–18.5 mg l^–1 for DOC. These quantitative inference models may now be used to help identify and estimate the effects of natural disturbances on the biogeochemistry of Abitibi lakes during their historical development.     

Within versus between-lake variability of sedimentary diatoms: the role of sampling effort in capturing assemblage composition in environmentally heterogeneous shallow lakes

The effect of within-lake diatom assemblages variability on sample representativity and its subsequent impact on between-lake comparisons were addressed in three environmentally heterogeneous shallow lakes from the Argentinean Pampas. Surface sediment samples were collected from the open waters and the highly vegetated littoral areas on a seasonal basis and analyzed for diatom assemblages composition. Within-lake variability was assessed by comparing the Bray Curtis distances between original data and the Monte Carlo-simulated average assemblages composition through non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS). Diatom assemblages showed a high variability in composition, evidencing large dispersions of samples around the centroid in NMDS plots. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance tests signaled significant differences in average composition between the three lakes, related mainly to their differences in conductivity and depth. Representativity of original samples was assessed through principal coordinates analyses ordinations of the three lakes, being samples lying in the overlapping areas of the plot classified as poor representatives of between-lake differences. Several samples, both from littoral and open waters, were classified as poor representatives through this method. Simulation allowed us to evaluate the effect of sample replication on improving between-lake comparisons, and showed that collecting two littoral and two open-water samples allowed us to faithfully capture differences in average composition among the three lakes. Hence, the results suggest that using a single sample to estimate diatom assemblages composition in these lakes should be avoided, as it fails to capture between-lake differences, leading to biases in compositional comparisons among lakes and regions. Consequently, including multiple samples from each lake when constructing calibration sets would be the best option to obtain reliable paleoenvironmental reconstructions from single sediment cores in these environmentally heterogeneous shallow lakes.     

Assessing the performance of a diatom transfer function on four Minnesota lake sediment cores: effects of training set size and sample age

Paleolimnological information is often extracted from diatom records using weighted averaging calibration and regression techniques. Larger calibration sample sets yield better inferences because they better characterize the environmental characteristics and species assemblages of the sample region. To optimize inferred information from fossil assemblages, however, it is worth knowing if fewer calibration samples can be used. Furthermore, confidence in environmental reconstructions is greater if we consider the relative importance of (A) similarity between fossil and calibration assemblages and (B) how well fossil taxa respond to the environmental variable of interest. We examine these issues using ~200-year sediment profiles from four Minnesota lakes and a 145-lake surface sediment training set calibrated for total phosphorus (TP). Training set sample sizes ranging from 10 to 145 were created through random sample selection, and models based on these training sets were used to calculate diatom-inferred (DI) TP data from fossil samples. Relationships between DI-TP variability and sample size were used to determine the minimum sample size needed to optimize the model for paleo-reconstruction. Similarly, similarities between fossil and modern assemblages were calculated for each size training set. Finally, fossil and modern assemblages were compared to determine whether older fossil samples had poorer similarity with modern analogs. More than 50–80 samples, depending on lake, were needed to stabilize variability in DI-TP results, and >110 training set samples were needed to minimize modern-fossil assemblage dissimilarities. Dissimilarities appeared to increase with sample age, but only one of the four studied cores displayed a significant trend. We have two recommendations for future studies: (1) be cautious when dealing with smaller training sets, especially if they are used to interpret older fossil assemblages and (2) understand how well fossil taxa are attuned to the variable of interest, as it is critical to evaluating the quality of the diatom-inferred data.     

The modern distribution of chironomid sub-fossils (Insecta: Diptera) in the Sierra Nevada, California: Potential for paleoclimatic reconstructions

Surface lake sediment was recovered from 57 lakes along an elevation gradient in the central, eastern Sierra Nevada of California. The surface sediment was analysed for subfossil chironomid remains in order to assess the modern distribution of chironomids in the region. The lakes sampled for the calibration dataset were between 2.0 and 40.0 m in depth, spanned an altitudinal gradient of 1360 m and a surface water temperature gradient of approximately 14 °C. Redundancy analysis (RDA) identified that five of the measured environmental variables – surface water temperature, elevation, depth, strontium, particulate organic carbon – accounted for a statistically significant amount of the variance in chironomid community composition. Quantitative transfer functions, based on weighted-averaging (WA), partial least squares (PLS) and weighted-averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS), were developed to estimate surface water temperature from the chironomid assemblages. The best model was a WA model with classical deshrinking, which had a relatively high coefficient of determination (r² = 0.73), low root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP = 1.2 °C) and a low maximum bias (0.90 °C). The results from this study suggest that robust quantitative estimates of past surface water temperature can be derived from the application of these models to fossil chironomid assemblages preserved in late-Quaternary lake sediment in this region.     

Factors affecting diatom distribution in floodplain lakes of the southeast Murray Basin,Australia and implications for palaeolimnological studies

Diatom assemblages of surface sediments in 46 billabongs from four river floodplains in the southeast Murray-Darling Basin, Australia were sampled to investigate drivers of species distribution. The principal purpose of the study was to derive information to aid interpretation of diatom-based palaeoecological studies of these systems and of floodplain lakes more generally. Patterns in billabong diatom assemblages in relation to river reach, hydrology and farming intensity on surrounding land were examined, as were correlations with water quality variables. Seasonal variation in billabong water quality was high relative to spatial variation, and spatial patterns in billabong water quality were weak. In contrast, strong patterns were evident in diatom assemblages. Three main patterns were observed: (1) a distinction between billabongs dominated by planktonic diatoms from those dominated by benthic and attached forms; (2) differences in diatom assemblages in billabongs on different river reaches; and (3) differences in assemblages in billabongs with different hydrology. Of all water quality variables tested, total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN) and pH exerted the strongest independent influence on diatom distribution; however, only TP remained an important variable when species variation due to river reach, hydrology, and aquatic plant cover was taken into account. The weak influence of water quality on diatom distribution is interpreted as reflecting the dichotomy between plankton and non-plankton-dominated billabongs, the influence of hydrology and biogeography, the lack of strong spatial water quality gradients and the high degree of temporal variability in water quality. The findings show that diatom records from billabong sediments can provide evidence of long-term changes in the abundance of aquatic macrophytes and hydrology. They also suggest that merging calibration data sets across regions for the purpose of improving diatom transfer functions for water quality reconstruction is of limited value for floodplain lakes, and that performance is more likely to be gained by boosting site numbers within regions.