长江中游夏季降水场预报技术研究

经SVD分析,截取足够多的预报场和因子场时间系数,使其相互关系代表两场的大尺度联系,预报场时间系数与其奇异向量线性组合估计场能反映原场主要特征.借助最优化技术,选择合理的系数,建立预测公式,由因子场时间系数预测预报场时间系数,同时订正预报场时间系数心a₁ a₂ a_N本身的误差和反演过程中分析误差造成的场格点趋势预测的误差.最后将预测的预报场时间系数和对应奇异向量反演为整个场的预报.预报过程重点考虑可预报的大尺度变化,滤去不可预报的小扰动,依据两场主要耦合关系,预测预报场未来的主要变化.     

Geological characteristics of large gas provinces and large gas fields in China

Based on the examination of the global researches on oil and gas provinces and large gas fields and the analysis of the features,attributes and distribution of large gas provinces and gas fields,this paper puts forward three indicators of determining large oil and gas provinces:spatial indicator,reservoir-forming indicator and resource indicator.It classifies the gas accumulated areas and large gas provinces in China and analyzes the controlling factors on the distribution of large gas provinces and large gas fields:the lateral distribution is mainly controlled by high-energy sedimentary facies and constructive diagenetic facies,palaeo-highs and their periclinal zones,deep faults,etc,and the vertical distribution is mainly controlled by unconformities,series of evaporates and deep low-velocity highly-conductive beds,etc.It also reveals the main geological characteristics of large gas provinces and large gas fields in China.Large gas fields in four-type basins have their own characteristics and onland large gas fields are dominantly developed in foreland basins and craton basins;there are three types of gas sources,of which,coal is the main source with high gas generating intensity and varying origins;reservoir rocks of the large gas fields(provinces)are of various types and dominated generally by low-middle permeability and porosity pore-type reservoirs;structural traps and litho-stratigraphic traps coexist in Chinese large gas fields and form dense high abundance and large-area low and middle-abundance large gas fields;most of the large gas fields have late hydrocarbon-generation peaks and reservoir formation,and experienced the process of multiple-stage charging and late finalization; large gas provinces(fields)have good sealing and preservation conditions,and evaporates seals are largely developed in large and extra-large gas fields.This paper intends to shed light on the exploration and development of large gas fields(provinces)through analyzing their geological characteristics.     

Geological characteristics of large gas provinces and large gas fields in China

Based on the examination of the global researches on oil and gas provinces and large gas fields and the analysis of the features, attributes and distribution of large gas provinces and gas fields, this paper puts forward three indicators of determining large oil and gas provinces: spatial indicator, reservoir-forming indicator and resource indicator. It classifies the gas accumulated areas and large gas provinces in China and analyzes the controlling factors on the distribution of large gas provinces and large gas fields: the lateral distribution is mainly controlled by high-energy sedimentary facies and constructive diagenetic facies, palaeo-highs and their periclinal zones, deep faults, etc, and the vertical distribution is mainly controlled by unconformities, series of evaporates and deep low-velocity highly-conductive beds, etc. It also reveals the main geological characteristics of large gas provinces and large gas fields in China. Large gas fields in four-type basins have their own characteristics and onland large gas fields are dominantly developed in foreland basins and craton basins; there are three types of gas sources, of which, coal is the main source with high gas generating intensity and varying origins; reservoir rocks of the large gas fields (provinces) are of various types and dominated generally by low-middle permeability and porosity pore-type reservoirs; structural traps and litho-stratigraphic traps coexist in Chinese large gas fields and form dense high abundance and large-area low and middle-abundance large gas fields; most of the large gas fields have late hydrocarbon-generation peaks and reservoir formation, and experienced the process of multiple-stage charging and late finalization; large gas provinces (fields) have good sealing and preservation conditions, and evaporates seals are largely developed in large and extra-large gas fields. This paper intends to shed light on the exploration and development of large gas fields (provinces) through analyzing their geological characteristics.     

淀山湖风浪场的数值模拟

对淀山湖的风场和风浪场进行了观测,根据所观测的风场利用SWAN模型计算了湖区的风浪场.通过将计算的波高和观测值进行比较,说明计算结果的变化趋势和观测结果的变化趋势相吻合;观测结果的波动幅度较大,而计算结果比较平滑.总体说来,基于SWAN模型所计算的波高可信、可靠.在此基础上,利用SWAN模型较为系统地计算了不同水位和不...     

Large-scale E-region electric field structure due to gravity wave winds

Oscillatory neutral wind motions, such as those of atmospheric gravity waves which propagate through the E-region of the ionosphere, appear to produce local electric fields in the source region. Although the net effect of these oscillatory fields vanishes outside the source region, the local fields themselves are not shorted out along the magnetic field lines, as is usually assumed. We present in situ measurements of neutral winds and the correlated electric fields, and show that local electric fields of the order of a few mV/m can be sustained by the neutral wind motions.     

Multi-transmitter multi-receiver null coupled systems for inductive detection and characterization of metallic objects

Equivalent dipole polarizabilities are a succinct way to summarize the inductive response of an isolated conductive body at distances greater than the scale of the body. Their estimation requires measurement of secondary magnetic fields due to currents induced in the body by time varying magnetic fields in at least three linearly independent (e.g., orthogonal) directions. Secondary fields due to an object are typically orders of magnitude smaller than the primary inducing fields near the primary field sources (transmitters). Receiver coils may be oriented orthogonal to primary fields from one or two transmitters, nulling their response to those fields, but simultaneously nulling to fields of additional transmitters is problematic. If transmitter coils are constructed symmetrically with respect to inversion in a point, their magnetic fields are symmetric with respect to that point. If receiver coils are operated in pairs symmetric with respect to inversion in the same point, then their differenced output is insensitive to the primary fields of any symmetrically constructed transmitters, allowing nulling to three (or more) transmitters. With a sufficient number of receivers pairs, object equivalent dipole polarizabilities can be estimated in situ from measurements at a single instrument sitting, eliminating effects of inaccurate instrument location on polarizability estimates. The method is illustrated with data from a multi-transmitter multi-receiver system with primary field nulling through differenced receiver pairs, interpreted in terms of principal equivalent dipole polarizabilities as a function of time.     

HYDRO_GEN: A spatially distributed random field generator for correlated properties

This paper describes a new method for generating spatially-correlated random fields. Such fields are often encountered in hydrology and hydrogeology and in the earth sciences. The method is based on two observations: (i) spatially distributed attributes usually display a stationary correlation structure, and (ii) the screening effect of measurements leads to the sufficiency of a small search neighborhood when it comes to projecting measurements and data in space. The algorithm which was developed based on these principles is called HYDRO_GEN, and its features and properties are discussed in depth. HYDRO_GEN is found to be accurate and extremely fast. It is also versatile: it can simulate fields of different nature, starting from weakly stationary fields with a prescribed covariance and ending with fractal fields. The simulated fields can display statistical isotropy or anisotropy.     

Investigation of the stochastic properties of anomalous geophysical potential fields defined at points of the surface of an ellipsoid

Summary Using a general model, constructed for random fields defined on a Lyapunov surface, the stochastic properties of fields defined at points of the surface of a tri-axial rotational ellipsoid are investigated within the correlation theory of these fields.     

Stochastic representation and dimension reduction for non-Gaussian random fields: review and reflection

This paper presents a review of methods for stochastic representation of non-Gaussian random fields. One category of such methods is through transformation from Gaussian random fields, and the other category is through direct simulation. This paper also gives a reflection on the simulation of non-Gaussian random fields, with the focus on its primary application for uncertainty quantification, which is usually associated with a large number of simulations. Dimension reduction is critical in the representation of non-Gaussian random fields with the aim of efficient uncertainty quantification. Aside from introducing the methods for simulating non-Gaussian random fields, critical components related to suitable stochastic approaches for efficient uncertainty quantification are stressed in this paper. Numerical examples of stochastic groundwater flow are also presented to investigate the applicability and efficiency of the methods for simulating non-Gaussian random fields for the purpose of uncertainty quantification.     

An efficient multivariate random field generator using the fast Fourier transform

It is often convenient to use synthetically generated random fields to study the hydrologic effects of spatial heterogeneity. Although there are many ways to produce such fields, spectral techniques are particularly attractive because they are fast and conceptually straightforward. This paper describes a spectral algorithm for generating sets of random fields which are correlated with one another. The algorithm is based on a discrete version of the Fourier-Stieltjes representation for multidimensional random fields. The Fourier increment used in this representation depends on a random phase angle process and a complex-valued spectral factor matrix which can be readily derived from a specified set of cross-spectral densities (or cross-covariances). The inverse Fourier transform of the Fourier increment is a complex random field with real and imaginary parts which each have the desired coveriance structure. Our complex-valued spectral formulation provides an especially convenient way to generate a set of random fields which all depend on a single underlying (independent) field, provided that the fields in question can be related by space-invariant linear transformations. We illustrate this by generating multi-dimensional mass conservative groundwater velocity fields which can be used to simulate solute transport through heterogeneous anisotropic porous media.     

Manifestation of 22-year solar magnetic cycle in the imbalance between positive and negative photospheric magnetic fluxes

Time variations in strong and weak photospheric magnetic fields have been considered based on synoptic maps from the Kitt Peak observatory for 1976?C2003. The magnetic fields of positive and negative polarities of the Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Sun and their imbalance were studied. It has been indicated that different groups of magnetic fields vary with 11-or 22-year periods depending on their values. The difference between positive and negative fluxes for each hemisphere always varies with a 22-year period. For weak fields, the 22-year cycle is related to the manifestation of the global solar magnetic field. For strong fields, the imbalance between positive and negative fluxes reflects the predominant role of leading sunspots in a given solar hemisphere. It has been detected that the total magnetic flux over the entire solar disk varies with an 11-year period in antiphase with the solar activity cycle for the weakest magnetic fields (0?C5 G).     

Electromagnetic fields generated by finite‐length wire sources: comparison with point dipole solutions

In present‐day land and marine controlled‐source electromagnetic (CSEM) surveys, electromagnetic fields are commonly generated using wires that are hundreds of metres long. Nevertheless, simulations of CSEM data often approximate these sources as point dipoles. Although this is justified for sufficiently large source‐receiver distances, many real surveys include frequencies and distances at which the dipole approximation is inaccurate. For 1D layered media, electromagnetic (EM) fields for point dipole sources can be computed using well‐known quasi‐analytical solutions and fields for sources of finite length can be synthesized by superposing point dipole fields. However, the calculation of numerous point dipole fields is computationally expensive, requiring a large number of numerical integral evaluations. We combine a more efficient representation of finite‐length sources in terms of components related to the wire and its end points with very general expressions for EM fields in 1D layered media. We thus obtain a formulation that requires fewer numerical integrations than the superposition of dipole fields, permits source and receiver placement at any depth within the layer stack and can also easily be integrated into 3D modelling algorithms. Complex source geometries, such as wires bent due to surface obstructions, can be simulated by segmenting the wire and computing the responses for each segment separately. We first describe our finite‐length wire expressions and then present 1D and 3D examples of EM fields due to finite‐length sources for typical land and marine survey geometries and discuss differences to point dipole fields.     

Propagation effects on radiation field pulses generated by cloud lightning flashes

As the electromagnetic fields propagate over finitely conducting ground, selective attenuation of the high frequencies takes place. As a result, the signatures of broad-band electromagnetic radiation fields generated by lightning flashes change as they propagate over such ground. In addition to being a function of the electrical parameters of the ground over which the electromagnetic fields propagate, these propagation effects depend on the height of their source above ground level. This makes the propagation effects on radiation fields from cloud flashes differ from those on the radiation fields generated by return strokes in ground flashes. In this paper the propagation effects on radiation field pulses of cloud flashes are illustrated and it is shown that these effects are not as severe as those of return strokes in ground flashes.     

Morphology of slowly-varying geomagnetic external fields — a review

The morphology of slowly-varying geomagnetic external fields (such as Sq, L, and Dst) and the production mechanisms of electric current systems for those fields are briefly reviewed to provide background knowledge of the present state of research regarding the source fields for scientists concerned with the electromagnetic induction within the earth. It is concluded that both the Sq and Dst fields seem to have sources both in the magnetosphere and the ionosphere, while the classic idea of L-field production solely in the ionosphere by the wind dynamo is still acceptable.     

The specific features of geophysical fields in the fault zones

Instrumental measurements of geophysical fields in several regions of the Earth’s crust with a complex structure and tectonics are analyzed. The observed geophysical fields include the electric field in the boundary layer of the atmosphere and in the subsurface crust, the ground magnetic field, and the fields formed by microseismic vibrations and natural radon emanation. It is shown that the fault zones are characterized by noticeably higher (compared to the middle segments of crustal blocks) variations in the geophysical fields, a stronger response to the faint external impacts in the form of lunisolar tides, and baric variations in the atmosphere, as well as by higher intensity relaxation processes. Energy transformations between the geophysical fields of different origins are observed predominantly in the fault regions.     

由实测资料看天然电磁场的平面波特性

在大地电磁测深资料处理中发现 ,同时观测的多个测点的磁道信号在一定距离范围内互换 ,电磁测深曲线形态变化微小。通过实际资料处理结果研究了天然电磁场平面波的某些量化特性 ,其结果显示 ,在一定范围内的天然磁场信号满足平面波的特性。该研究结果为大地电磁测深勘探中合理布设磁场探测器 ,提供了实际依据     

电场产生的赤道扩展F的时空演变

利用计算机模拟研究了非均匀电场产生的赤道扩展Ｆ的时空演变。非均匀电场能在赤道电离层Ｆ区底部触发Ｒａｙｌｅｉｇｈ－Ｔａｙｌｏｒ不稳定性，导致等离子体泡形态。计算中非均匀电场的幅度取为０．２５－１．００ｍＶ／ｍ，所产生的等离子体泡在２０００ｓ以内就能穿过Ｆ峰达到５４０ｋｍ的高度。所得结果阐明了非均匀电场在赤道扩展Ｆ中的作用，指出了产生等离子体泡一种可能的扰动源。由于Ｅ区和Ｆ区电场是相互影响的，从而揭示了Ｅ区和Ｆ区扰动的相互联系。     

Spatial rainfall estimation by linear and non-linear co-kriging of radar-rainfall and raingage data

The feasibility of linear and nonlinear geostatistical estimation techniques for optimal merging of rainfall data from raingage and radar observations is investigated in this study by use of controlled numerical experiments. Synthetic radar and raingage data are generated with their hypothetical error structures that explicitly account for sampling characteristics of the two sensors. Numerically simulated rainfall fields considered to be ground-truth fields on 4×4 km grids are used in the generation of radar and raingage observations. Ground-truth rainfall fields consist of generated rainfall fields with various climatic characteristics that preserve the space-time covariance function of rainfall events in extratropical cyclonic storms. Optimal mean areal precipitation estimates are obtained based on the minimum variance, unbiased property of kriging techniques under the second order homogeneity assumption of rainfall fields. The evaluation of estimated rainfall fields is done based on the refinement of spatial predictability over what would be provided from each sensor individually. Attention is mainly given to removal of measurement error and bias that are synthetically introduced to radar measurements. The influence of raingage network density on estimated rainfall fields is also examined.     

Spatial rainfall estimation by linear and non-linear co-kriging of radar-rainfall and raingage data

The feasibility of linear and nonlinear geostatistical estimation techniques for optimal merging of rainfall data from raingage and radar observations is investigated in this study by use of controlled numerical experiments. Synthetic radar and raingage data are generated with their hypothetical error structures that explicitly account for sampling characteristics of the two sensors. Numerically simulated rainfall fields considered to be ground-truth fields on 4×4 km grids are used in the generation of radar and raingage observations. Ground-truth rainfall fields consist of generated rainfall fields with various climatic characteristics that preserve the space-time covariance function of rainfall events in extratropical cyclonic storms. Optimal mean areal precipitation estimates are obtained based on the minimum variance, unbiased property of kriging techniques under the second order homogeneity assumption of rainfall fields. The evaluation of estimated rainfall fields is done based on the refinement of spatial predictability over what would be provided from each sensor individually. Attention is mainly given to removal of measurement error and bias that are synthetically introduced to radar measurements. The influence of raingage network density on estimated rainfall fields is also examined.     

Geo-botanical evidence of late quaternary mass wasting in block field areas of Virginia

Studies of block fields at Massanutten Mountain, Virginia, document and provide information on the magnitude and frequency of mass movement on these coarse-grained slopes. Block fields, which traditionally have been considered relicts of Pleistocene climate, occur on and downslope from resistant Massanutten Sandstone in Passage Creek basin. Slopes are strewn with boulders and vegetative cover on the open block fields is absent to sparse. Several block fields were investigated for evidence of recent movement using the degree of lichen growth, differences in block weathering, and rock-fall damaged trees. Temporal and spatial aspects of geomorphic processes can be inferred through dendrogeochronology. Corrasion scars and stem ages infer a minimum age for a geomorphic or hydrologic event. High flows on Passage Creek coincided with tree-ring determined dates of block-field movement. Although, Pleistocene periglacial climate may have facilitated original formation of block fields, some block fields now continue to spread downslope during intense runoff events. Present block-field mass wasting may be the principal erosional process in these areas of resistant rock.