甘肃中东部地区新增补的几次中强历史地震

在甘肃中东部地区进行历史地震资料考证和野外实地调查过程中,新整理了7次中强历史地震的史料。根据综合分析及类比的原则和方法,初步确定或修订了各次地震的基本参数,为深入分析该地区的地震构造活动提供了新的资料和线索。     

广西历史强震前地震频度变化的震兆信息

采用３年累积频次滑动，组成低通滤波，按年序作变化曲线，讨论了广西历史上各次强震前曲线所含的震兆信息，得出地震频度增高时段与强震发生有对应关系的结论。     

甘肃民勤地区新增加的几次中强历史地震

在甘肃省民勤地区进行历史地震资料考证和野外实地调查过程中,从新获得的《镇番遗事历鉴》等文献中新发现了6次中强历史地震的史料。根据综合分析及类比的原则和方法初步确定了各次地震的基本参数,为分析该地区的地震构造活动提供了新的资料。     

Earthquake Spectra文章:预计21世纪因地震灾难导致死亡人数将上升

2013年2月,美国《地震杂志》(Earthquake Spectra)在线发表题为《全球地震死亡人数和人口数量》(Global Earthquake Fatali-ties and Population)的文章,预测出21世纪内单次死亡人口多的地震数量将会增加,而且因地震死亡的人数将会超过以往任何时候。美国地质调查局(USGS)的科研人员将现代全球地震死亡人数分为2部分:不依赖于世界人口增长的、每年大致相同的死亡人数基线;单次死亡人口多的大地震所造成的死亡,其死亡率依赖于世界人口。研究中将     

2003年12月26日伊朗巴姆地震

2003年12月26日伊朗巴姆发生Mw6．5地震，这次地震造成30000余人死亡。依据USGS及相关网站的有关资料，介绍了2003年全球因地震死亡的人数，伊朗巴姆市概况。叙述了伊朗巴姆地震的有关参数，余震及其分布，巴姆地区的历史地震活动，地震灾害、地震烈度与地震构造等。     

人口损失的概率预测模型

本文在论述用死亡度来描述强震破坏合理性的基础上，利用与目前震害资料现状相一致的概率模型和相关资料，计算得到了中国各分区在未来不同的时间发生不同死亡度的概率曲线；并以动态系统模型为基础，处理了历史的人口损失资料。最后，对两种资料的结果进行了分析和讨论。     

以死亡度为人口损失标志的概率预测模型

在论述用死亡度来描述强震破坏合理性的基础上,利用与目前震害资料现状相一致的概率模型和相关资料,计算得到了中国各分区在未来不同时间发生不同死亡度的概率曲线;并以唐山地震震害得到的死亡度衰减关系,由现行的地震危险性分析模型,计算了华北北部（114°－117°E,39°－41°N）未来10年和50年超越概率10％死亡度的空间分布。     

河池地区历史地震补遗

根据现场调查资料，发现10次没有文字记载的历史地震。文中列出了各次地震的发震时间、宏观震中位置、震级及烈度；记述了各次地震的影响及震害情况。     

利用近代微震资料研究地震危险性

利用１９７０～１９９３年华北地区ＭＬ≥２．０的微震资料，根据其地震活动特点，从中挑选了一些有代表性的区域，做其Ｇ－Ｒ关系曲线，由该曲线可得到每个震级的年频次，同时，由该区域的历史地震（１３００－１９９３年）可得到较大震级的实际年频次，两者对比，发现具有很好的一致性。因此，当选取合适的区域时，利用近代微资料可以推测出该区域较大地震的活动情况，但同时有两点注意：（１）利用微震资料进行统计时，得到的得一     

我国西南地区近期强震蕴育的影响场

本文用平面应变有限元方法,模拟了西南地区1970年—1976年5次大于7级地震的蕴育过程中,介质性质变化对区域应力场的影响,给出了各次地震蕴育影响场的分布图象和影响场的基本特征。由计算结果与大震前的地震活动、前兆观测资料对比得到,地震前的异常与影响场的应力变化有关。     

Changes in sediment transport in the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau in China

In this paper, the changes in sediment transport over 51 years from 1955 to 2006 in the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau in China are assessed. Key factors affecting sediment yield and sediment transport, such as precipitation depth, discharge, and human activities are studied. To investigate the changes in sediment yield in this watershed, a trend analysis on sediment concentration, precipitation depth, and discharge is conducted. Precipitation depths at 2 Climate Stations （CSs）, as well as discharge and sediment transport at 3 Gauging Stations （GSs） are used to assess the features of sediment transport in the Kuye River. The rtmoff modulus （defined as the annual average discharge per unit area, L/（s·km^2）） and the sediment transport modulus （defined as the annual suspended sediment transport per unit area, t/（yr km^2）） are introduced in this study to assess the changes in runoff and sediment yield for this watershed. The results show that the highest average monthly discharge during the study period in the Kuye River is 66.23 m^3/s in August with an average monthly sediment concentration of 88.9 kg/m^3. However, the highest average monthly sediment concentration during the study period in the Kuye River is 125.34 kg/m^3 and occurs in July, which has an average discharge of 42.6 m^3/s that is much less than the average monthly discharge in August. It is found that both the runoff modulus and sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS on the Kuye River has a clear downward trend. During the summer season from July to August, the sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS is much higher than those at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs on the Yellow River. The easily erodible loess in the Kuye River watershed and the sparse vegetation are responsible for the extremely high sediment yield from the Kuye River watershed. The analyses of the grain size distribution of suspended load in the Kuye River are presented. The average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Kuye River is largest in February and then decreases until June. In July, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load approaches another peak and decreases until September. Then, the median grain size of suspended load starts to increase until February of the following year. However, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Yellow River at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs is the smallest between early summer and late fall The median grain size in the Yellow River starts to increase in November and approaches the largest size in January.     

Variations in trace gas concentrations in different environments in India

Observations of trace gases (SO₂, NH₃, NO₂ and O₃) were made during the period 1981 to 1984 at 6 different locations representative of urban industrial, urban, nonurban, thermal power plant and marine environment. Diurnal variations of the trace gases were studied in an urban environment. Except in the urban industrial environment, the concentration of NH₃ was found in the range of background values. Also, the average concentrations of NO₂ and O₃ at the different environments were in the order of background values. However, the concentrations of SO₂ were substantially higher by about 7 times, in urban industrial and thermal power plant environments. The diurnal variations of SO₂, NH₃ and NO₂ showed anitphase relationship with surface temperature at the urban environment station which is relatively free of industrial pollution. Discussion is centred on trace gas variations in different environments in India together with the values reported for various countries in the world.     

TritiogenicHe in groundwater in Takaoka

³He/⁴He ratios up to 3.5 times the ratio of atmospheric He were found in groundwater samples. The³He enrichment can be attributed to radiogenic³He produced by in-situ beta-decay of³H. This shows that tritiogenic³He is accumulating in confined waters. From tritiogenic³He and³H concentrations, ages of groundwaters can be calculated. Detection of tritiogenic³He gives a tool to trace a tritium contamination which occurred in the past and cannot be assessed only by the³H counting method.     

2008年云南地震灾害概况

列出了2008年云南省破坏性地震目录.在此基础上,结合云南省地震局的地震灾害评估资料,总结了2008年云南地震灾害的主要数据和特性.最后列出1990～2008年云南地震灾害的相应数据,并进行了简要对比.     

2007年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

在列出2007年中国5级以上地震目录的基础上,结合有关省(自治区、直辖市)地震局的地震灾害评估资料,总结出2007年中国大陆地震灾害的主要数据和特性。最后列出1990—2007年中国大陆地震灾害的相应数据,并进行了简要的比较。     

Applied volcanology in geothermal exploration in Iceland

In an active spreading area like Iceland, where the regional geothermal gradient is in the range 50–150°C/km, it is normally not a problem to find high enough temperature with deep drilling, but the difficulties arise with finding permeable layers at depth within the strata. Various volcanological methods can be applied in the search for aquifers and geothermal reservoir rocks. The flow pattern (as deduced from deuterium studies) indicates that the thermal water flows preferentially along high porosity stratiform horizons and dyke swarms from the recharge areas in the highlands to the hot spring areas in the lowlands. The primary porosity of the volcanic strata is dependent on the chemical composition and the mode of eruption of the volcanic units. Both the reservoir rocks and the flow channels forming the geothermal plumbing system are thought to vary from the Tertiary to the Quaternary provinces due to environmental conditions at the eruptive sites.     

Projected changes in flood indices in selected catchments in Poland in the 21st century

The aim of this study is to estimate likely changes in flood indices under a future climate and to assess the uncertainty in these estimates for selected catchments in Poland. Precipitation and temperature time series from climate simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative for the periods 1971–2000, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios have been used to produce hydrological simulations based on the HBV hydrological model. As the climate model outputs for Poland are highly biased, post processing in the form of bias correction was first performed so that the climate time series could be applied in hydrological simulations at a catchment-scale. The results indicate that bias correction significantly improves flow simulations and estimated flood indices based on comparisons with simulations from observed climate data for the control period. The estimated changes in the mean annual flood and in flood quantiles under a future climate indicate a large spread in the estimates both within and between the catchments. An ANOVA analysis was used to assess the relative contributions of the 2 emission scenarios, the 7 climate models and the 4 bias correction methods to the total spread in the projected changes in extreme river flow indices for each catchment. The analysis indicates that the differences between climate models generally make the largest contribution to the spread in the ensemble of the three factors considered. The results for bias corrected data show small differences between the four bias correction methods considered, and, in contrast with the results for uncorrected simulations, project increases in flood indices for most catchments under a future climate.     

Advances in ground motion studies in China

This paper briefly summarizes the works in the processing of strong ground motion data, the factors affecting strong ground motion, the modeling of strong ground motion and the calculating of broad-band response spectrum which have been done recent years by engineering seismologists and seismologists of China. In addition, we think back to the international cooperation in strong ground motion of the recent years and make some expectations for the future.     

冬季亚洲中强震与夏季我国东部主雨带的准同纬性

根据1954～2003年50年亚洲中强震与我国地温资料,分析了冬季震中纬度—震涡中心纬度—冬季我国东部强地热涡中心纬度—夏季我国东部主雨带纬度4者之间的相互关系,发现冬季中强震与夏季主雨带之间具有较好的准同纬性. 这是每年汛期降水预报的一个指标. 文中也讨论了应用此预报指标时的一些特例.